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Elite or just above average?

Jon Pierik's article in today's Age contains some interesting analysis and comments:

Quote
At Carlton, hopes of kicking a big score would again appear to lay with veteran forward Jarrad Waite. He was considered above average last season, despite managing only 14 games, but has been tipped by Champion Data to slip this season. So important was Waite that he contributed to 23 per cent of scores – ranked second at the club behind Chris Judd – despite being moved into defence against Richmond and Essendon late in the campaign. Waite returned to the forward line for the finals.

Lachie Henderson endured a strong year at either end of the ground and was the only player in the league to defend 50 one-on-one contests and be an attacking target on 50 occasions.

Carlton director of coaching Robert Wiley said coach Mick Malthouse would adopt a “horses for courses” approach with the pair.

“He [Henderson] proved last year that he is the modern-day swingman and he can play at both ends, and very successfully,” Wiley said. “I think it's horses for courses. Mick really coaches that way. He likes to see the opposition and where they are vulnerable.

“Jarrad Waite kicked seven goals in the one game [against Essendon], a couple of weeks later he was playing down back. The most important thing is they know their roles, they can play at both ends.”

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/who-will-step-forward-20140131-31sfm.html#ixzz2s2mDXzwA

However, I think Champion Data's methodology is seriously flawed in that relying on a statistical analysis fails to take into account the intangible factors that win games and make players champions.  For example, while I'm happy to accept that Roughead and Franklin were elite forwards in 2013, including Rioli and Gunston seems to be a stretch.  Meanwhile, Cloke is considered to be above average because his goal kicking was inaccurate. 
“Why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don’t you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don’t you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?”  Oddball

Re: Elite or just above average?

Reply #1 –
Quote from: DJC on
Jon Pierik's article in today's Age contains some interesting analysis and comments:

Quote
At Carlton, hopes of kicking a big score would again appear to lay with veteran forward Jarrad Waite. He was considered above average last season, despite managing only 14 games, but has been tipped by Champion Data to slip this season. So important was Waite that he contributed to 23 per cent of scores – ranked second at the club behind Chris Judd – despite being moved into defence against Richmond and Essendon late in the campaign. Waite returned to the forward line for the finals.

Lachie Henderson endured a strong year at either end of the ground and was the only player in the league to defend 50 one-on-one contests and be an attacking target on 50 occasions.

Carlton director of coaching Robert Wiley said coach Mick Malthouse would adopt a “horses for courses” approach with the pair.

“He [Henderson] proved last year that he is the modern-day swingman and he can play at both ends, and very successfully,” Wiley said. “I think it's horses for courses. Mick really coaches that way. He likes to see the opposition and where they are vulnerable.

“Jarrad Waite kicked seven goals in the one game [against Essendon], a couple of weeks later he was playing down back. The most important thing is they know their roles, they can play at both ends.”

Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/who-will-step-forward-20140131-31sfm.html#ixzz2s2mDXzwA

However, I think Champion Data's methodology is seriously flawed in that relying on a statistical analysis fails to take into account the intangible factors that win games and make players champions.  For example, while I'm happy to accept that Roughead and Franklin were elite forwards in 2013, including Rioli and Gunston seems to be a stretch.  Meanwhile, Cloke is considered to be above average because his goal kicking was inaccurate.

Must admit that I don't regard the Champion Data's stuff as the Holy Grail. Nor stats / KPIs, they are an aid, and when assigned that level of relevance - are useful. BUT, as you write... it's when the intangibles and other unquantifiables (together with stats and many other factors) are all brought together that we get a far clearer and more balanced picture. For example a small forward may have poor stats for a game... 5 kicks, 1 handball, 2 tackles - but kicks 4 goals with 1 assist. The side kicks 13 goals and wins, he has made a significant contribution... especially that two of the goals were inspiring in some way or another which 'lifted' team mates... etc etc.
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: Elite or just above average?

Reply #2 –
Gunston definitely deserves to be there he was unstoppable late in the year.
Ignorance is bliss.

ONWARDS AND UPWARDS!

Re: Elite or just above average?

Reply #3 –
Gunston is over rated.
The Force Awakens!

Re: Elite or just above average?

Reply #5 –
Quote from: LP on
Gunston is over rated.

He will have to work harder without Franklin around. He is good though from what I have seen. Lets see if he gets a better defender, how he will play. Hawthorns forward structure made it difficult for any side to defend. You basically needed 2 or 3 elite tall and fast defenders to stop them. Then you have Rioli running riot too.
This digital world is too much for us insects to understand.

Re: Elite or just above average?

Reply #6 –
Stood up in the Grand Final kicking a few very important goals. Biggest stage there is to prove yourself on. Not sure how he could do any better than that at staking his claim as a quality forward. We've seen many go missing over the years in Grand Finals. Gunston turned up on the biggest day possible. If anything, I reckon he's been a bit underrated.

Re: Elite or just above average?

Reply #7 –
Gunston is a decent size now and would be much bigger than the majority of third tall defenders, he also kicks very straight so with very few possies can make it ugly for his opponent on the scoreboard....he also seems to get a fair few Joe the goose goals being on his own in the goalsquare.
I'll be interested to see if Gunston is used as the 2nd tall forward now that Buddy is gone or the Hawks go with Hale, Roughy and continue to let Gunston bully smaller defenders...

We all know Jarrod Waite alone wont work and Henderson will spend plenty of time down back so it means players like Casboult and Rowe have to step up this year and give us something or we wont kick enough goals to win the big games...

Re: Elite or just above average?

Reply #8 –
Quote from: Mantis on
He will have to work harder without Franklin around. He is good though from what I have seen. Lets see if he gets a better defender, how he will play. Hawthorns forward structure made it difficult for any side to defend. You basically needed 2 or 3 elite tall and fast defenders to stop them. Then you have Rioli running riot too.

Agreed, most clubs struggled to match up on Franklin and Roughead let alone the extras. Now Gunston will probably get the guys who used to run with Franklin, I do not expect him to dominate. He is good, but I cannot see him doing an Ablett who stared without the superstar support.
The Force Awakens!

Re: Elite or just above average?

Reply #9 –
Quote from: Gozza on
Stood up in the Grand Final kicking a few very important goals. Biggest stage there is to prove yourself on. Not sure how he could do any better than that at staking his claim as a quality forward. We've seen many go missing over the years in Grand Finals. Gunston turned up on the biggest day possible. If anything, I reckon he's been a bit underrated.

Hate to be seen agreeing with Gozza :P but yes there's no better place to stake your claim than on the biggest day of all. LP get your eyes checked mate.
Ignorance is bliss.

ONWARDS AND UPWARDS!

Re: Elite or just above average?

Reply #10 –
Gunston benefitted from '3rd tall syndrome!' When you've allocated your best tall defenders to cover Roughy and Bud, the opposition then finds itself stretched and a third tall can find himself the beneficiary (of having an opponent not quite up to scratch). Not my words but those of commentators on the day.

Seems to me that Gunston is a 'good' tall forward, but just how good we'll probably find out this year when he has to combat, probably, the 2nd best tall defender. And should Roughy go down... it'll be your show, kid!
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: Elite or just above average?

Reply #11 –
He had the second best tall defender in the GF.....until the defender was beaten and moved off him.
Ignorance is bliss.

ONWARDS AND UPWARDS!

Re: Elite or just above average?

Reply #12 –
Quote from: PassIt2Carrots on
He had the second best tall defender in the GF.....until the defender was beaten and moved off him.
If Zac Dawson playing on Jack Gunston isn't a mis-match I don't know what is, a guy who is clearly best as a stay at home full back playing on a deep running HF who can score from outside 50.

As for standing up maybe he did, but I think without doubt Freo would admit Dawson choked on GF day not for the first time and probably not for the last!

Gunston is good and we would take him without doubt, but lets not get carried away with Gunston, he isn't yet AFL elite.

Over the last few seasons clubs had to deal with Franklin first and foremost who attracted the type of defenders needed for Gunston. Most clubs only have one or two suitable defenders, and Hawthorn have three tallish deep running forwards without counting Smith and then clubs have to cover Hale who also pushes forward. Gunston benefits from this, and also from having a smart team that make good decisions. If Gunston had been in our team last season we'd have bombed the ball over his head to a Betts, Yarran or Garlett marking contest in the square!

The coming season is the test for Gunston, if he persists then he is starting to look like AFL elite.

PS: Dawson was moved onto Roughead after Roughead started clunking a few, not off Gunston. IMHO a much better match up than the starting line up.
The Force Awakens!

Re: Elite or just above average?

Reply #13 –
Gunston is definitely proof that the Angry Dwarf is one heck of a coach.