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Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #75
ps Mav, I'll take it as a given that your last lengthy rant was your cute way of now saying that you agree the 97% claim is unaldulterated BS.

QED
If you want to interpret black as white, then be my guest.  But you'd be better off joining the Magpies as then you won't be too disconcerted by the results!

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #76
That escalated quickly.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

 

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #77
Not from my perspective.  Obviously, climate change and abortion can be quite heated issues but it's possible to have a reasonably calm debate.  I'd imagine, though, that this would be much harder in the US.

That's what intrigues me about the Zika virus issue as it could well open up both issues.  For now, the Republican candidates can get away with sucking up to the right wing extremists while they are battling away in the primaries and appearing before right-wing debate moderators.  What happens when the successful Republican candidate is forced to debate issues such as reproductive rights, gun control and climate change?

As the fundamentalist Christians and Evangilists are an important part of the right-wing base, it's interesting to note that they have a strange basis for climate denial.  Genesis 1:26–28 tells us:

Quote
Then God said, “Let Us make man in Our image, according to Our likeness; let them have dominion over the fish of the sea, over the birds of the air, and over the cattle, over all the earth and over every creeping thing that creeps on the earth.” So God created man in His own image; in the image of God He created him; male and female He created them. Then God blessed them, and God said to them, “Be fruitful and multiply; fill the earth and subdue it; have dominion over the fish of the sea, over the birds of the air, and over every living thing that moves on the earth.”

This "dominion mandate" tells Biblical literalists that climate change scientists are doing the work of Satan.  If God gave man dominion over all of the earth, then surely he didn't seed it with materials which could bring the existence of man into question.  Extracting the oil and coal from the earth is therefore part of God's plan.  Climate science is an affront to God.  The Pope's declaration that mankind had an obligation to address climate change must have annoyed them intensely.

Wacky as this might seem, it isn't the wackiest thing these guys believe.  Young Earth Creationists believe that the earth is only 6,000 or so years old.  They dismiss fossils and other features which are scientifically proven to date from well before that period.  They say they are either frauds perpetrated by Satan or tests of faith created by God.  Hell, at the recent WA by-election, the Liberals under Abbott put up a Young Earth Creationist and he's now in our Parliament. 

And let's not even mention evolution or gay marriage ...

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #78
Wow, as if on cue - http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/pregnant-victorian-woman-diagnosed-with-zika-virus-20160211-gms8b4.html.

This is horrible.  As I understand it, microcephaly is difficult to detect in the womb save in extreme cases.  The mother-to-be must be devastated.  Let's hope Flyboy is right and the virus doesn't cause the condition.  The other thing is that one map I saw indicated that countries in South and Central America had reported an increase in microcephaly concomitant with the spread of the virus but the same thing hasn't necessarily been reported in the Asian countries to our north which suffer from the virus.  Could there be 2 strains?  If so, let's hope this is the less problematic one.

If Australia has recorded a number of Zika infections, it's only a matter of time until the US does too and pregnant women there contract it.

PS: Here's an update which details a new study and also suggests that mutations of the virus are feared by scientists:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/zika-news-pope-contraception_us_56bcc4eae4b08ffac1243664?section=australia

Quote
2. Autopsy found Zika virus in fetal brain tissue
While the link between Zika virus and the birth defect microcephaly is still unproven, a new study provides some clues to understanding the virus, The Associated Press reports. An autopsy a fetus aborted from a woman who contracted Zika virus in Brazil during her first trimester revealed that the fetus's brain was only a fraction of the size that would be expected at that stage of development. Scientists found Zika virus in the fetus's brain tissue, but not in any other organs. Scientists sequenced the virus's genetic material for future research that investigates the probable link between the virus and microcephaly.

New details are emerging about the infants born with microcephaly. According to a very small study, published in JAMA Ophthalmology, a third of the study subjects, all of whom had microcephaly, were also born with eye damage, including lesions or scars in the retina and optic nerve. It's unknown if the eye damage is unique to microcephaly or if it occurs in the general population. 
...

4. How Zika virus may threaten Africa
Zika virus was discovered in Uganda in 1947, but it hasn’t erupted in an epidemic with possible birth defects in African countries the way that it has in Latin America. But now, in 2016, experts are worried that the virus may return to the African mainland in mutated form, potentially triggering a new wave of infections among a population that had previously been immune to the disease, reports Reuters.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #79
Here's the study referred to above, published in the New England Journal of Medicine:  Zika Virus Associated with Microcephaly

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #80
Here's the study referred to above, published in the New England Journal of Medicine:  Zika Virus Associated with Microcephaly

Microcephaly is not just hard to diagnose in the womb it is hard to diagnose in the living, the pictures most commonly displayed are extreme cases by it comes in the full spectrum of almost zero visual impact to the versions you see on the news. The current situation is clouded by concerns of mis-diagnosis!

The most recent analysis suggests that it's not even clear there has been a spike in cases when mis-diagnosis and positive reinforcement effects are taken into account. Some are concerned that the story broke through / associated with labs that were known to be working on vaccines for Zika. Further reports are "spiking" in regions which would have naturally had Microcephaly cases in the past but had previously reported no cases, the natural rate is somewhere between 1:100 and 1:1000.
The Force Awakens!

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #81
Which is why the NEJM study is so interesting.  Finding the virus targetting the brain and eyes of an aborted foetus with microcephaly is bracing indeed.  If the Zika virus and microcephaly were just ships passing in the night, you wouldn't expect that.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #82
Which is why the NEJM study is so interesting.  Finding the virus targetting the brain and eyes of an aborted foetus with microcephaly is bracing indeed.  If the Zika virus and microcephaly were just ships passing in the night, you wouldn't expect that.

It can be easy to confuse cause and effect. But if you count foetal cases of Microephaly and Zika you must also count cases of healthy babies born with Zika and no Microcephaly.

It may be that Zika is a potential cause of Microephaly, it may have always been that way. But that doesn't necessarily mean there really is a spike in Microcephaly cases, or that increased detections of the Zika virus will means an increase in Microcephaly. It may be that a foetus with Microcephaly is more susceptible to Zika, the cause and effect reversed.
The Force Awakens!


Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #84
It can be easy to confuse cause and effect. But if you count foetal cases of Microephaly and Zika you must also count cases of healthy babies born with Zika and no Microcephaly.

It may be that Zika is a potential cause of Microephaly, it may have always been that way. But that doesn't necessarily mean there really is a spike in Microcephaly cases, or that increased detections of the Zika virus will means an increase in Microcephaly. It may be that a foetus with Microcephaly is more susceptible to Zika, the cause and effect reversed.

And why now?

Zika's been around a long time?

If the 'issue' is real, perhaps other environmental factors involved too?
Finals, then 4 in a row!

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #85
What?

Apparently only a fraction of Zika infections have detectable effects, many people have Zika including expecting mothers and have no effects other than headaches or flu like symptoms. People can carry Zika and not know it.

By the same token, it's expected that there are many more people with microcephaly than are actually diagnosed.

Anyway it best that people read the latest reports being published in Nature and Science and not listen too much to breakfast radio or read too many tabloids.
The Force Awakens!

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #86
And why now?

Zika's been around a long time?

If the 'issue' is real, perhaps other environmental factors involved too?

First detected in the 40s.

Why now, the US CDC issued an alert in January warning people not to travel to known infected regions, it wasn't the first outbreak but the press got hold of this and ran with the story.

An environmental factor is more people becoming highly mobile travelers from infected areas. The virus eventually being transported to South America by a host.

We didn't here about it entering the Asia Pacific two years ago, but it did! ;) Universities and Institutes around Australia have been studying it for several years. But when it puts America on the infection list entering via Mexico the world goes berserk.
The Force Awakens!

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #87


Well his mum obviously wasn't bitten!
Reality always wins in the end.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #88
And here you have the Zika virus, with its birth control and abortion implications, tied nicely into the climate change debate:

Quote
With at least 80% of those infected showing no symptoms, tracking the disease is extremely difficult. The mosquito species that spreads Zika, Aedes aegypti, has been expanding its range over the past few decades. “It loves urban life and has spread across the entire tropical belt of the planet, and of course that belt is expanding as global warming takes effect,” added Farrar.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/30/zika-virus-health-fears

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #89
Funny thing... My 19 year old daughter who I didn't think had a great knowledge (or even any interest) of US politics walked past the television the other day as the New Hampshire results came through....and said "Sanders, Yes!"

It's not just the American kids who are taking notice of the old bloke.