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Re: What are your expectations for 2017?

Reply #120
Everyone likes to point at hawthorn regarding how quickly it can change, and that feels great, but let's re think this a little.

The Bulldogs started rebuilding their list for last year's flag about seven years ago.

Richmond have finished top 4 this year but the foundation for that started getting laid ten years ago where they cut deep and went to the draft heavily picking up blokes like Ben Nason for a late draft pick, looked impressive in his first season and then vanished.

A few years later some of these guys were delisted even though they played and looked ok early.

Rising star nominations are grand but they give one out every week.  That's 22-23 a season.  Over five years 120+ players are nominated with 5 winners and I reckon half probably don't go on with it.

That's just to temper the arguments and expectations a little.   We have a little way to go, and how we develop from here is more important than anything else.

I'm acutely aware that much of our good form this year has been on the back of seasoned veterans.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: What are your expectations for 2017?

Reply #121
So

There is no way this is a fail?
So when we decided to keep the list together last year, those that argued against cutting deeper argued you can't afford to continue to bottom out.
So, winning 2 less games and finishing lower on the ladder... there is NO WAY this can be considered a failure?

I disagree.

I think the coaching staff has done as well as I would expect. I don't have an issue there.
I think the club has performed at about the level I PREDICTED, as in I thought we already had the worst list and 14-16th was going to be the result, no matter how hard we traded out our top players.

So with us performing at a level that saw us bottom 3 (and make no mistake, I think we will go to that 10th area on the ladder next year), I think we missed a chance to bring in even more youth and to try and find homes for some of our elder players (who actually had good seasons in my opinion).

So I think with the playing list we performed adequately and developed players nicely, but I think the board cannot get a free pass forever. I think drafting players like Smedts was a perfect example of horrible list management.

I give our coaches a 5-7/10 this year, this list they maintained to me was still the worst (or close to worst) list in the competition.
But I give our football club, overall... about a 3/10.
And if they don't get into that top 10 next year, then there will need to be serious ramifications and it should not start with the coach.

Think a bit more. We went much younger this this. We had so many teenagers and blokes under 22. We were extremely competitive most of the year against very good sides, have led 7 times in last qtrs before losing and 5 rising star nomination suggesting list management and development is pretty spot on. Make no mistake, very few sides enjoyed playing us as we often made things very difficult for most sides. People who think about will realise this, those that just look at wins/losses are thinking very simply.

Every side has a few crap players on their list. Most of our crappy were steak knives that come with picking good players. List management is the least of our problems. Because of injuries we had to play more of them than we wanted.

Given our circumstances of course it's a pass. Problem is some supporters expect miracles. It's a hard road starting from scratch and you take you little positives as you go.

Re: What are your expectations for 2017?

Reply #122
Everyone likes to point at hawthorn regarding how quickly it can change, and that feels great, but let's re think this a little.

The Bulldogs started rebuilding their list for last year's flag about seven years ago.

Richmond have finished top 4 this year but the foundation for that started getting laid ten years ago where they cut deep and went to the draft heavily picking up blokes like Ben Nason for a late draft pick, looked impressive in his first season and then vanished.

A few years later some of these guys were delisted even though they played and looked ok early.

Rising star nominations are grand but they give one out every week.  That's 22-23 a season.  Over five years 120+ players are nominated with 5 winners and I reckon half probably don't go on with it.

That's just to temper the arguments and expectations a little.   We have a little way to go, and how we develop from here is more important than anything else.

I'm acutely aware that much of our good form this year has been on the back of seasoned veterans.

Your seasoned veterans will carry you while young players develop but make no mistake those young players have shown alot. As for rising stars nomination, yes they do give them out every week but very few clubs receive 5 nominations in a year.

Re: What are your expectations for 2017?

Reply #123
Went like I thought...., I said 3-4 wins, so 5 was a bonus , said bottom 4 finish and if Cripps got injured then we would struggle.......
I'm with MIO...list management still needs work, we have 10-12 players who need moving on but I appreciate you cant fix it all straight away.
The lack of backup for Cripps was what I pointed to at the start of the season and SOS failed to address that and it bit us on the bum...
However we were never a finals chance and it was all about developing kids and on the back of our rising star nominees its a pass for this year.

Next season though it has to be more results driven and we need to progress up the ladder....cannot be bottom 4 again...

Re: What are your expectations for 2017?

Reply #124
Went like I thought...., I said 3-4 wins, so 5 was a bonus , said bottom 4 finish and if Cripps got injured then we would struggle.......
I'm with MIO...list management still needs work, we have 10-12 players who need moving on but I appreciate you cant fix it all straight away.
The lack of backup for Cripps was what I pointed to at the start of the season and SOS failed to address that and it bit us on the bum...
However we were never a finals chance and it was all about developing kids and on the back of our rising star nominees its a pass for this year.

Next season though it has to be more results driven and we need to progress up the ladder....cannot be bottom 4 again...

I'm liking list management. We're developing a good young list. While we still have some strugglers we are gradually weeding them out. Can't do it all at once but we're on the right track. We did get some as steak knives with good players so we didn't lose from getting them. Eventually they'll go. We have actually nailed the last two drafts. It does take time to cover every weakness at once when you start from scratch but we are in the right direction.

Definitely a pass but it's ongoing. Next year requires more wins but if we progress and turn those 7 last qtr leads into wins then we will take off up the ladder. Theoretically, if you win all those 7 you're with the likes of Sydney and Port in the 8. Doesn't work that way admittedly but shows our young side is alot closer than we may think. Key is to go on with it next year.

Re: What are your expectations for 2017?

Reply #125
Progress?

The on field effort couldn't be knocked, variable player effort was a negative in the past.

Got defence (personnel, structure and system) in place.... Note how small fowards don't cut us up like that did.

Amongst the younger players are clearly blokes who will be major players going fowards.

DrE is no more... you ok with that harmonica man?

Re: What are your expectations for 2017?

Reply #126
Your seasoned veterans will carry you while young players develop but make no mistake those young players have shown alot. As for rising stars nomination, yes they do give them out every week but very few clubs receive 5 nominations in a year.

Make no mistake.   Ben Nason played twenty games in his debut season from pick 71, and showed a bit.  was delisted at the end of 2011.

We have some impressive youngsters and rising stars are great, but like I said they are not an indication of future success.

I'm simply tempering the expectation.  Levi, Murphy, Kreuzer,  Gibbs, Docherty, Plowman, Wright, Jones, Rowe(before injury) and Thomas have all put together good seasons. The kids will have to step up a lot because if these guys don't backup next season with similar we will be improving to tread water.

That's provided some of these kids don't go backwards too!
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: What are your expectations for 2017?

Reply #127
We finished exactly where I predicted in the pre season thread. There was a lot of good signs, but also a lot problems that are still a long way from being addressed. My fears about our lack of scoring power came true, and you simply don't win many games having 20 shots or less, which we do almost every week.

The reality is we are coming off such a low base over the last 4 years the only way is up. Our diabolical trading and drafting for 5 years from 2010-2014 means we still have massive holes in the list. At the end of last year we needed to urgently address our issues in big bodied midfielders and forwards - we failed on both accounts and because of this our results are what they are.

Some of the kids look really good, but we need more experienced bigger bodies around them while they develop.

We are still 5 good players [minimum] of being mid tier team - 2 strong mid fielders, 1 medium forward, 1 Key forward and 1 crumbing forward. The issue is we can probably only address 2 of those during the draft/trade for 2018. Smedts and Palmer [and to a lesser extent Kerridge] have failed to provide the stop gap we hoped for this year.

The draft/trade has to be all about forwards and strong mids IMO. If we can't move our scoring up [something we have failed to do for 4 years straight] we will continue to drag along the bottom. McKay is still 2 years away at best.

Re: What are your expectations for 2017?

Reply #128
My expectations for next year - that we will seriously address improving our mid field. Other improvements will flow from that but we'll probably still be a wip.
Reality always wins in the end.

Re: What are your expectations for 2017?

Reply #129
We finished exactly where I predicted in the pre season thread. There was a lot of good signs, but also a lot problems that are still a long way from being addressed. My fears about our lack of scoring power came true, and you simply don't win many games having 20 shots or less, which we do almost every week.

The reality is we are coming off such a low base over the last 4 years the only way is up. Our diabolical trading and drafting for 5 years from 2010-2014 means we still have massive holes in the list. At the end of last year we needed to urgently address our issues in big bodied midfielders and forwards - we failed on both accounts and because of this our results are what they are.

Some of the kids look really good, but we need more experienced bigger bodies around them while they develop.

We are still 5 good players [minimum] of being mid tier team - 2 strong mid fielders, 1 medium forward, 1 Key forward and 1 crumbing forward. The issue is we can probably only address 2 of those during the draft/trade for 2018. Smedts and Palmer [and to a lesser extent Kerridge] have failed to provide the stop gap we hoped for this year.

The draft/trade has to be all about forwards and strong mids IMO. If we can't move our scoring up [something we have failed to do for 4 years straight] we will continue to drag along the bottom. McKay is still 2 years away at best.

I'm liable to really build the midfield. Of the key forwards I am liking McKay, Curnow and Kerr. Kerr really looked the part in the VFL and Josh Fraser really like him. At 205cm, is McKay makes it he'll be a nightmare with his height. We're likely to lose Levi to free agency but if he knocks back our offer them someone is offering someone good. Means a good compo pick at least, which might with help us get Kelly or another good big bodied mid. I certainly agree with the big bodies.


Re: What are your expectations for 2017?

Reply #130
I'm liable to really build the midfield. Of the key forwards I am liking McKay, Curnow and Kerr. Kerr really looked the part in the VFL and Josh Fraser really like him.

Yep, Kerr looked competitive even when it turned out he was playing with a hip problem.

I know a lot of people doubt Kerr, but I'd like to make a comparison to put things in perspective. Kerr is every bit the same size shape, speed and kick of a young Taylor Walker. That pretty much puts Kerr in the prime category for a KPF role in years to come!
The Force Awakens!

Re: What are your expectations for 2017?

Reply #131
Yep, Kerr looked competitive even when it turned out he was playing with a hip problem.

I know a lot of people doubt Kerr, but I'd like to make a comparison to put things in perspective. Kerr is every bit the same size shape, speed and kick of a young Taylor Walker. That pretty much puts Kerr in the prime category for a KPF role in years to come!

Kerr is a good prospect,  mobile, has some nous and  good skills....I'd be playing him in the pre season games with a view to playing him early in the regular season.
He is another like Mckay who wont learn anything in the NB's playing with duds...

Re: What are your expectations for 2017?

Reply #132
I think we need to be a bit careful putting too much weight on 'getting' rising star nominations.

Dylan Buckley (Rnd 2) and Troy Menzel (Rnd 16) were rising star nominations in 2014.

Identifying the talent is one thing...Developing it is a different thing altogether.

If we've improved in that area the class of 2016-17 will start to show the benefits of that next year.


Re: What are your expectations for 2017?

Reply #133
A statistical analysis will show that you need 25 scoring shots to be average in the comp - this applies this year and is pretty consistent for the last few years. If you have 25 you will win half your games and you will be around the bottom of the 8.

In our 2011 year we averaged 29 shots for 15 wins. We had over 25 shots in 17 of 24 games. Only 2 times did we have 20 or under shots.

Fast forward to 2017 - we average 20 shots per game [rank 18th]. We had 1 game where we had over 25 shots, and 12 games were we had 20 or under. The numbers are actually slightly worse than last year - we went backwards on shots but our accuracy was a bit better.

It is a mathematical certainty that unless we significantly improve our scoring power we won't move up the ladder. A stronger midfield is obviously part of the equation and we need more powerful midfielders to compete for longer in games, but we need to find some quality goal kickers fast. McKay and Kerr are both still 2 years minimum from hopefully being consistent goal kickers, and I hope they develop into world beaters.

It is no surprise that our fall down the ladder has been assisted greatly by our losing consistent goal kickers [Waite, Betts, Gartlett] and our inability to find any via trade or draft any replacements of even equal output. Until this changes we are stuck where we are.

Re: What are your expectations for 2017?

Reply #134
i have to disagree.

The slow, ball movement, keeping off style implemented by BB this year is a deliberate ploy by the Coach to teach the kids the importance of tempo during a game.....

Of course, we need a McKay to step up as a key forward but we showed in a handful of games that we can move the ball quickly and kick a handful of goals or more in a quarter.....

We bolster the midfield and there will, by default, be a lot more I50 entries....

All that aside, would love to see Ben Saunders in the Navy Blue next year!
Finals, then 4 in a row!