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June 28, 2017, 08:18:42 AM

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Author Topic: Goaltracker  (Read 1983 times)

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Offline jeza

  • Top Shelf Player
Re: Goaltracker
« Reply #120 on: June 04, 2017, 07:24:25 PM »
Same people who wanted us to get rid of Betts (and there were MANY on here) will probably be hopeful of losing Cas.

He'll kick 3 times as many goals at a top club.

Offline Thryleon

  • Assistant Coach
Re: Goaltracker
« Reply #121 on: June 04, 2017, 08:43:42 PM »
Of course this is largely subjective, and everyone is perfectly entitled to their opinion. My position is based primarily on stats that I think are often overlooked.

If people think that being second last in inside 50's and 10% lower than this time last year is 'getting the ball in enough' then I'll go heave. Our conversion of inside 50's into scoring shots and goals is about  the league average. Where I disagree with many though is the assertion that we will 'naturally improve' or the coaches will suddenly switch tack and we will suddenly become much better in attack, despite a 60 game trendline that shows no improvement at all. There is a bit of potential in a few of our youngsters, but we individually and collectively we have delivered very little in attack all year.

A competent forwardline begins with having a bunch of good forwards on your list, with a mix of experienced and developing players - just like we have with the defence and midfield. Until we get more AFL standard forwards onto our list, or start playing the ones we do have, then I can't see how we improve!

I don't necessarily expect we will flick the switch and kick more goals.

What I expect is that we will look at our forward entries, analyse what we are not doing well (turning it over when entering forward fifty, because we are bombing long too frequently) and concentrate on better leading patterns and lowering vision to spot up free targets.

Our forward fifty entries are focusing on quality over quantity yet we still revert to bombing it in from time to time.

I think we'll fix this when Samo,  fisher, Cunningham and Polson are another year older and more able to compete more frequently than they can currently.   Likewise having some better targets to hit up (Curnow and Jack sos next season) plus maybe another emerging player (McKay?) might get us much closer to kicking whatever target you think we need to be to win more games.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Online LP

  • Hall Of Fame
Re: Goaltracker
« Reply #122 on: June 04, 2017, 08:54:26 PM »
Same people who wanted us to get rid of Betts (and there were MANY on here) will probably be hopeful of losing Cas.

He'll kick 3 times as many goals at a top club.

So you think he'll be leading the Coleman medal at another club..........really?

Yet we offered him a short term deal, and no other club showed interest when they could have got a potential Coleman medallist cheaply! ;D
Finally, the Force Awakens!

Online LP

  • Hall Of Fame
Re: Goaltracker
« Reply #123 on: June 04, 2017, 08:59:16 PM »
Cas on the other hand is simply not smart enough as a footballer to ever be a good forward. He is an awesome contested mark, but is just in the wrong place at the wrong time way too often to ever build a forwardline around, as he is also often putting the other players out of position as well.

My biggest complaint about Casboult is not his kicking, lack of goal scoring, poor or non-existent 2nd and 3rd efforts in the ruck, where he leads or the decisions he makes.

My biggest beef with Meat is that opposition clubs can put 188cm x 85kg defenders on him and almost completely eliminate his effectiveness.
Finally, the Force Awakens!

Offline jeza

  • Top Shelf Player
Re: Goaltracker
« Reply #124 on: June 04, 2017, 09:09:25 PM »
So you think he'll be leading the Coleman medal at another club..........really?

Yet we offered him a short term deal, and no other club showed interest when they could have got a potential Coleman medallist cheaply! ;D

Last 2 year he kicked roughly 20 goals. I think he could kick 50 or 60. That's at the top end and would depend on which team but wouldn't be a coleman medal which is about 80ish.

Online LP

  • Hall Of Fame
Re: Goaltracker
« Reply #125 on: June 04, 2017, 09:15:37 PM »
Last 2 year he kicked roughly 20 goals. I think he could kick 50 or 60. That's at the top end and would depend on which team but wouldn't be a coleman medal which is about 80ish.

Hmmmm, you posted...

He'll kick 3 times as many goals at a top club.

To Rnd 10 he's kicked 17, 3 x 17 is 51. The best in the league are on 34 at the moment, (Kennedy and Cameron), there is no way he'll kick 33% more goals than Kennedy or Cameron.

Casboult is probably on track to kick 40 this season, that is about as good as it'll get for him, and already roughly twice as good as he's ever been before! In fact the most scoring shots he's ever had in a season so far is 36(18-18 and 24-12).

His return / performance is never going to go up another 300% to 400%, to have him kick 60 goals he probably needs 100 to 120 scoring attempts.
« Last Edit: June 04, 2017, 09:29:49 PM by LP »
Finally, the Force Awakens!

Offline sydneybluesfan

  • TAC Cup Player
Re: Goaltracker
« Reply #126 on: June 04, 2017, 09:55:11 PM »
Just on Casboult, here's an interesting thing to ponder about him.

In our 10 wins over the last 2 years, he has kicked a total of 9 goals! So when we are playing well under BB he is almost always a non factor. Not sure how you could say with any certainty based on this that he would kick more goals in a better side. Yes he may get better service from the guys up the field, but he is also going to be competing with other competent forwards for the ball.

I agree with Jeza on a lot of things, but I think this is a big stretch.

Offline Lods

  • Administrator
  • Brownlow Medallist
Re: Goaltracker
« Reply #127 on: June 12, 2017, 01:29:12 PM »
After 11 Games

2016

Goals 121 Behinds 106-832 (points against 965)
Percentage 86.2 %

2017(Target 224-224-1568)

Goals 117 Behinds 97-799 (points against 993)
Percentage 80.5 %

Goalkickers (Target 2016- Wright 22)

Casboult 18
Wright 15
Silvagni 9
Gibbs 9

After 11 games we’ve now dropped behind our 2016 goal tally and also our percentage from last year. In light of yesterday, and recent efforts, I doubt there will be great concern…After this game in 2016 we only won one more for the year. There’s a fair chance we can do a little better in the remainder of the year.

« Last Edit: June 19, 2017, 11:03:12 AM by Lods »

Offline laj

  • Vice-Captain
Re: Goaltracker
« Reply #128 on: June 12, 2017, 01:50:04 PM »
Just on Casboult, here's an interesting thing to ponder about him.

In our 10 wins over the last 2 years, he has kicked a total of 9 goals! So when we are playing well under BB he is almost always a non factor. Not sure how you could say with any certainty based on this that he would kick more goals in a better side. Yes he may get better service from the guys up the field, but he is also going to be competing with other competent forwards for the ball.

I agree with Jeza on a lot of things, but I think this is a big stretch.

Love how those with agendas take simple stats use it to justify their agenda. You do know that after he took 11 marks, and kicked 3.2 in the win against Collingwood last year he hurt his knee in the first minute of the next win against Port and was off for the day and was never the same for the rest of the year. The previous two wins to that were against Freo and Essendon in utterly dreadful games where the ball didn't come in at all well. Both could've qualified as the worst game of the year by a mile. Ball wasn't exactly coming in like it would'v been if he was playing for a top side like the Crows. Actually got 16 possession against Freo that day, including 6 marks, just didn't kick very straight. You also know in the Essendon win this year conditions were so dreadful that our key forwards weren't kicking goals.
 
You reckon if he wasn't playing for a side like Adelaide, who average way more than us and get the ball in way more clearly he wouldn't kick alot more goals. Ball would be flying into an open forward line giving him away more one on ones. He's have to share more but Adelaide kick alot more too. Like, really, that is simple. If you're going to use simple stats think a bit more.

Offline Lods

  • Administrator
  • Brownlow Medallist
Re: Goaltracker
« Reply #129 on: June 19, 2017, 11:00:22 AM »
After 12 Games

2016

Goals 133 Behinds 112-910 (points against 1075)
Percentage 84.7 %

2017
(Target 224-224-1568)

Goals 129 Behinds 108-882 (points against 1066)
Percentage 82.7 %

Goalkickers (Target 2016- Wright 22)

Casboult 18
Wright 16
Silvagni 11
Gibbs 11

12th game 2016-12 goals
12th game 2017-12 goals…but this time a win. :D

Online DJC

  • Senior Coach
Re: Goaltracker
« Reply #130 on: June 19, 2017, 06:20:55 PM »
After 12 Games

2016

Goals 133 Behinds 112-910 (points against 1075)
Percentage 84.7 %

2017

Goals 129 Behinds 108-882 (points against 1066)
Percentage 82.7 %

Interesting ... and certainly not the goal fest I was anticipating/hoping for!

Clearly Bolton's priority/strategy is to stop the other mob scoring so that if we do get headed, one or two goals will get the lead back.  Even though it's low scoring, it's good to watch ... particularly when we win  :)
Nostalgia isn't what it used to be . . .

Offline cookie2

  • Hall Of Fame
Re: Goaltracker
« Reply #131 on: June 19, 2017, 06:58:17 PM »
Interesting ... and certainly not the goal fest I was anticipating/hoping for!

Clearly Bolton's priority/strategy is to stop the other mob scoring so that if we do get headed, one or two goals will get the lead back.  Even though it's low scoring, it's good to watch ... particularly when we win  :)

We seem to be developing a sort of "arm wrestling" gamestyle. I found the last two games especially quite fascinating - certainly no complaints from the point of view of it being good to watch.
I ordered a chicken and an egg from Amazon today...........................I'll let you know.

Offline Lods

  • Administrator
  • Brownlow Medallist
Re: Goaltracker
« Reply #132 on: June 19, 2017, 07:51:42 PM »
Next week's game will be interesting.
As the ladder stands at the moment....We have the worst Goal scoring record and Richmond have the second best defensive record.

A win against the odds ;) :D

 

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