Looks like it's on for July 2nd.
We think the Yanks are going bad....we're not much ahead in our choices.
The issues with Turnbull are exactly the same as they were before....all fluff, no substance.
He's heading out backwards and taking his party with him.
But will folk vote for Bill Shorten as PM? ::)
...and is it too soon to have them back.
It will be close.... but it looks like we lose whichever way it goes. :(
Dont think the aussie public has caught on to Turnbull justyet and an election win will give him the mandate he currently doesn't have both with the public and the liberal party.
A good budget will just about get Turnbull home IMO - well at least not a bad one. I think Shorten turns most people off and they wouldn't want to see him as PM, but you never know.
Just hope we dont get more undecided/disenchanted electors voting for the Greens......
we play the pies ,that day
we play the pies ,that day
We have a good record on state election days, i believe
Looks like it's on for July 2nd.
We think the Yanks are going bad....we're not much ahead in our choices.
The issues with Turnbull are exactly the same as they were before....all fluff, no substance.
He's heading out backwards and taking his party with him.
But will folk vote for Bill Shorten as PM? ::)
...and is it too soon to have them back.
It will be close.... but it looks like we lose whichever way it goes. :(
Yeah it's amazing he hasn't turned the country around in 6 months?
WTF has he done in all that time.
The country is hamstrung by debt, thanks to the previous government.
No one is used to, or prepared to take a hit so it will probably happen in a recession where we are forced to.
When you live beyond your means for so long it's going to hurt.
It's interesting to compare Victoria's government with the Commonwealth. While folk may not agree with everything Andrews is doing, at least he's not afraid to make a decision. Meanwhile, Turnbull has pulled back from everything he has floated. It must be hard for the poor bastard to abandon all of his principles to appease the far right nut jobs like Bernardi, Hastie, Christensen and other Abbott supporters.
Another interesting comparison was made today by the Brick with Ears when said that the Coalition and its culture of leaking was typical of the struggling NRL clubs. Unless the conservatives can give the impression that they are united behind Turnbull, a one term government is not out of the question.
It's interesting to compare Victoria's government with the Commonwealth. While folk may not agree with everything Andrews is doing, at least he's not afraid to make a decision. Meanwhile, Turnbull has pulled back from everything he has floated. It must be hard for the poor bastard to abandon all of his principles to appease the far right nut jobs like Bernardi, Hastie, Christensen and other Abbott supporters.
Another interesting comparison was made today by the Brick with Ears when said that the Coalition and its culture of leaking was typical of the struggling NRL clubs. Unless the conservatives can give the impression that they are united behind Turnbull, a one term government is not out of the question.
Andrews, like all previous labour leaders has no fear of putting us in years of debt.
It's easy to spend if you DGAF about the future.
Cancel east west.
Build western link that only puts more traffic on the WG freeway.
He's a genius
more nut job independents get oxygen because of disenchantment amongst voters for both parties. A vicious circle
No money, and a reluctance to take a hit on spending, forces leaders of appeasement to keep deferring fundamentals
to stay employed
Shorten has been very highly underrated throughout. Been strong, tactically smart ,has a unified party, has clear, concise policies compared to Turnbull, who has stood for nothing, full of short-term thought bubbles, waffled, dithered, leads a dived party, been the poorest Liberal Government ever on the economy, as the figures show, debt up, deficit doubled, and basically given up on his tax policy as the party can't come to terms on it. Can't trust them after the 2014 Budget. Thank goodness for the Senate on that one. Good reason why the polls have turned around as the people have worked him out. All talk, no action. Everything Turnbull does is based on negativity at the moment as he has nothing.
Be a close election. They might want to give the Libs another go, given they've just served one term, or they might be thoroughly sick of them. Could well be a hung parliament where the independents decides.
shorten is a union hack that wanted the PM job 10 years ago when he was the awu head
oppositions should spend time formulating policy- he has got none and if there is a policy, its developed through the prism of the unions that represent 18% of the work force
Shorten has been very highly underrated throughout. Been strong, tactically smart ,has a unified party, has clear, concise policies compared to Turnbull, who has stood for nothing, full of short-term thought bubbles, waffled, dithered, leads a dived party, been the poorest Liberal Government ever on the economy, as the figures show, debt up, deficit doubled, and basically given up on his tax policy as the party can't come to terms on it. Can't trust them after the 2014 Budget. Thank goodness for the Senate on that one. Good reason why the polls have turned around as the people have worked him out. All talk, no action. Everything Turnbull does is based on negativity at the moment as he has nothing.
Be a close election. They might want to give the Libs another go, given they've just served one term, or they might be thoroughly sick of them. Could well be a hung parliament where the independents decides.
I think that's a pretty good analysis. I'm not a gambler but, if I was, I'd steer clear of betting on the election outcome.
It appears, as Abbot was a champion of the more extreme right of the Liberals, Turnbull is more a prisoner of it. The budget is his chance to really set things straight - I'm not sure that the present divide in the Liberal party will allow this to occur. This is the deep blue sea!
The devil on the other hand is Shorten. I like the sound of some of Labor's recent policy announcements BUT I don't trust Shorten and his union mates if they get to call the shots.
It's a worry either way.
It appears, as Abbot was a champion of the more extreme right of the Liberals, Turnbull is more a prisoner of it. The budget is his chance to really set things straight - I'm not sure that the present divide in the Liberal party will allow this to occur. This is the deep blue sea!
The devil on the other hand is Shorten. I like the sound of some of Labor's recent policy announcements BUT I don't trust Shorten and his union mates if they get to call the shots.
It's a worry either way.
I like your analysis too Cookie :)
While I don't like the manipulation of senate preferences to give lunatic fringe candidates a gig, I would like to see more genuine independent candidates get up in both houses. That could keep the major parties honest, as Don Chipp once said.
I think that the lack of participation in this thread reflects the current disenchantment with Australian politics and political parties.
According to the latest AEC figures, the Coalition currently has 67 seats in the House of Reps and Labor has 71. Six seats are undecided so the Coalition can only get to 73 if everything goes its way. That means we're in for minority government and a period of unusual collaboration or great instability.
What's the chances of another election before the end of the year?
I think that the lack of participation in this thread reflects the current disenchantment with Australian politics and political parties.
According to the latest AEC figures, the Coalition currently has 67 seats in the House of Reps and Labor has 71. Six seats are undecided so the Coalition can only get to 73 if everything goes its way. That means we're in for minority government and a period of unusual collaboration or great instability.
What's the chances of another election before the end of the year?
Bye bye Malcolm?
Bye bye Malcolm?
Could be Cookie. At best it shows poor judgement; he should have called an election shortly after he rolled Abbott and his popularity was at its peak.
Could be Cookie. At best it shows poor judgement; he should have called an election shortly after he rolled Abbott and his popularity was at its peak.
No guarantee that would have worked either.
I believe we will end up with a hung vote and we go again.
No guarantee that would have worked either.
I believe we will end up with a hung vote and we go again.
No guarantees in politics Thry.
I hope you're wrong about going again. Maybe I'm being too optimistic but I'd like to see more a collaborative, pragmatic approach to running the country.
I agree DJC. Stop the nasty politics, give us a vision for the country, work with everyone in Parliament, work for the good of the country in a fair and equitable way and do what you say you're going to do.
Until this happens, there will be no stability and the minors will get in and make everything harder.
Lack of stability and trust in politics worsens the public outlook and confidence. Don't stuff us around and we are more likely to vote for you.
TBH I have never been a particular fan of the Libs. I did however feel that Turnbull deserved to win so that he could step outside the shadow of those loyal to Abbott and show his true worth. Shorten ran a poor campaign and I was hoping that he may suffer in the polls so that someone of the likes of Tanya Plibersek could challenge his leadership.
Bye bye Malcolm?
That should be the case....but replace him with 'who'
Abbott cant come back...too many of the senior folk were involved in his demise....Morrison, Bishop????
At this point there cant be a leadership change...deals to be done etc.
Once the dust settles though the moves will start and it wont be pretty.
That should be the case....but replace him with 'who'
Abbott cant come back...too many of the senior folk were involved in his demise....Morrison, Bishop????
At this point there cant be a leadership change...deals to be done etc.
Once the dust settles though the moves will start and it wont be pretty.
The Lib right will be plotting its moves as we speak - Malcolm has plenty of enemies with a score to settle.
The Lib right will be plotting its moves as we speak - Malcolm has plenty of enemies with a score to settle.
Not really, most of Abbott's support was removed over the recent year or so. Keep in mind when Abbott potted Bishop, he lost a very large chunk of his NSW Right support.
I suspect if the Coalition go backwards they would be decimated at another election, and the independents would grow even more powerful through peoples disillusionment with the two majors.
I know several life long ALP supporters who have just voted Coalition for the first time ever. But they are not abandoning their politics, just sending a message.
The risk for the Coalition is that this result has happened in-spite of Andrews best attempts to scupper the ALP in Victoria. If another election is called to resolve the deadlock, and the CFA issue goes away, those disgruntled voters may return to the ALP and that would be a nightmare for the Coalition.
There is no convincing the voters the threat to Medicare is bogus, the track record over the last few years says otherwise, and a return to Abbott would only reinforce that belief.
MT ran a shockingly lazy, almost arrogant campaign.
There was an article by a journo who spent the last 2 weeks with MT and his team and he said they were lethargic as all get up......
Not really, most of Abbott's support was removed over the recent year or so. Keep in mind when Abbott potted Bishop, he lost a very large chunk of his NSW Right support.
I suspect if the Coalition go backwards they would be decimated at another election, and the independents would grow even more powerful through peoples disillusionment with the two majors.
I know several life long ALP supporters who have just voted Coalition for the first time ever. But they are not abandoning their politics, just sending a message.
The risk for the Coalition is that this result has happened in-spite of Andrews best attempts to scupper the ALP in Victoria. If another election is called to resolve the deadlock, and the CFA issue goes away, those disgruntled voters may return to the ALP and that would be a nightmare for the Coalition.
There is no convincing the voters the threat to Medicare is bogus, the track record over the last few years says otherwise, and a return to Abbott would only reinforce that belief.
Who said anything about Abbot? The forces of the right are very much alive and well if not prominent atm.
Even if he manages to scrape together enough support to form a majority government, Malcolm Turnball is now Julia Gillard circa 2010, a lame duck leader in a poisonous parliament where his own party, as well as the people of the Nation, no longer have faith in him. His agenda is in tatters, his authority diminished and his judgment is being questioned on multiple levels.
Ohm, and by the way, with the moronic rednecks in Queensland once again voting that hate ignorant, mongering racist Pauline Hanson back into Parliament, I'm wondering if its possible for us to have a 'Quexit', and kick Queensland out of Australia!! #wishfullthinking
MT ran a shockingly lazy, almost arrogant campaign.
There was an article by a journo who spent the last 2 weeks with MT and his team and he said they were lethargic as all get up......
And the other bloke lied.
Great options we have.
At least Pauline gets a say in how our country is run.
:o
And the other bloke lied.
Great options we have.
At least Pauline gets a say in how our country is run.
:o
and Derryn too!
I think we are more likely to end up with neither party able to form a majority government, and we will be voting again.
The implications of such an outcome is one I have no idea about.
Probably more cost, for no gain.
Who said anything about Abbot? The forces of the right are very much alive and well if not prominent atm.
Yes, but they are one of the causes of this, they are not the cure.
It's ironic that someone like Bolt points the finger at the alleged cause, but Bolt and his type "are the main cause" of this total feck up!
Further the vapid media pander to the likes of Hinch and Hanson for a front page quote, give them page after page of free political commentary without question the validity of their obscure opinions and thoughts. Then after making them the story the media point the finger at "Joe Public" for voting in the nutters!
Is it just me that sees the irony in "the media" labeling the Turnbull campaign as lazy. Yet look at the lowest common denominator in the media's own reporting, hardly any real effort there! Just like Bolt, the media "is a cause" but they are not in the business of pointing the finger at themselves! Until they stop elevating uniformed opinion to the level of fact they will remain primarily responsible for this countries malaise.
FFS, I suspect Hanson will have a Bill in place to investigate UFOs before the week is out! :D
FFS, I suspect Hanson will have a Bill in place to investigate UFOs before the week is out! :D
No LP, she will want a Royal Commission ;)
While it won't necessarily provide for good government or maintain our credit rating and standard of living, the election of Hanson and Hinch will give comedians and cartoonists a wealth of material :P
Yes, but they are one of the causes of this, they are not the cure.
It's ironic that someone like Bolt points the finger at the alleged cause, but Bolt and his type "are the main cause" of this total feck up!
Further the vapid media pander to the likes of Hinch and Hanson for a front page quote, give them page after page of free political commentary without question the validity of their obscure opinions and thoughts. Then after making them the story the media point the finger at "Joe Public" for voting in the nutters!
Is it just me that sees the irony in "the media" labeling the Turnbull campaign as lazy. Yet look at the lowest common denominator in the media's own reporting, hardly any real effort there! Just like Bolt, the media "is a cause" but they are not in the business of pointing the finger at themselves! Until they stop elevating uniformed opinion to the level of fact they will remain primarily responsible for this countries malaise.
FFS, I suspect Hanson will have a Bill in place to investigate UFOs before the week is out! :D
All valid questions I guess LP, but in simple terms the right wing power brokers of the Liberal party are definitely not fans or true supporters of Malcolm and he was only elected leader, subject to strict conditions and limits, because it was thought he (rather than Abbot) could win a comfortable majority at the election. He won't achieve that and as a consequence he is no longer attractive to them. All they really care about is being in government.
Ohm, and by the way, with the moronic rednecks in Queensland once again voting that hate ignorant, mongering racist Pauline Hanson back into Parliament, I'm wondering if its possible for us to have a 'Quexit', and kick Queensland out of Australia!! #wishfullthinking
That's the annoying thing about a democracy isn't it? A whole bunch of people who have entirely different views to you get to have a say as well.
How inconsiderate.
Even if he manages to scrape together enough support to form a majority government, Malcolm Turnball is now Julia Gillard circa 2010, a lame duck leader in a poisonous parliament where his own party, as well as the people of the Nation, no longer have faith in him. His agenda is in tatters, his authority diminished and his judgment is being questioned on multiple levels.
Ohm, and by the way, with the moronic rednecks in Queensland once again voting that hate ignorant, mongering racist Pauline Hanson back into Parliament, I'm wondering if its possible for us to have a 'Quexit', and kick Queensland out of Australia!! #wishfullthinking
At this stage, going but seats won as well as who's leading in doubtful seats (which can change) it's 72-all with 6 crossbenchers. You can bet that the only one of the crossbenchers the Libs will get onside is Katter. If it was to somehow remain 72-all Shorten would end up PM of a minority government. Probably better as if the Libs went into minority government, with all the internal party issues, they would totally implode and lose a vote of no-confidence.
Anthony Green says the LNP may end up with a 1 or 2 seat majority. He says the AEC's seat analysis doesn't take into account the way that absent and pre-poll votes should go.
Anthony Green says the LNP may end up with a 1 or 2 seat majority. He says the AEC's seat analysis doesn't take into account the way that absent and pre-poll votes should go.
It has to be a two seat majority. It's 76 seats to form government and that leaves 74 seats for the opposition and cross benches.
Barrie Cassidy reckons a hung parliament is inevitable with the major parties each winning around 72 seats. The AEC has the LNP leading in 67 seats with the lead in two of those less than 0.5%. Relying on postal and pre-poll votes to snaffle another 9 seats would be a stretch. Still, nothings guaranteed in politics.
Yep, should be 2 or 4 seat majority. Hoping he's wrong.
I've seen evidence that Jon Snow the King in the North and Lyanna Mormont both picked up a vote in the House of Representatives
Is there any chance of the Stark United Party picking up a Senate seat ;D
It has to be a two seat majority. It's 76 seats to form government and that leaves 74 seats for the opposition and cross benches.
Barrie Cassidy reckons a hung parliament is inevitable with the major parties each winning around 72 seats. The AEC has the LNP leading in 67 seats with the lead in two of those less than 0.5%. Relying on postal and pre-poll votes to snaffle another 9 seats would be a stretch. Still, nothings guaranteed in politics.
Have to appoint a speaker, who doesn't vote.
76 seats to form government, minus 1 equals 75 votes on the floor in the lower house. 74 on the other side (or sides now) therefore you govern with a single seat majority?
Aren't the Libs lucky that they don't have any factions. ::)
When Turnbull said that at their national conference, there was jeering and laughter from the audience. At least the ALP recognises that they have factions and have adopted mechanisms to resolve conflict. The Liberals just have a free-for-all and the comservative wing seriously believes that only the far right can be true conservatives. Imagine if the far left of the ALP were as successful as their far right counterparts in their attempts to dominate the ALP.
Aren't the Libs lucky that they don't have any factions. ::)
When Turnbull said that at their national conference, there was jeering and laughter from the audience. At least the ALP recognises that they have factions and have adopted mechanisms to resolve conflict. The Liberals just have a free-for-all and the comservative wing seriously believes that only the far right can be true conservatives. Imagine if the far left of the ALP were as successful as their far right counterparts in their attempts to dominate the ALP.
The populist far right is gaining in popularity world wide. Here it is still not a huge force but is growing. A very concerning trend.
Have to appoint a speaker, who doesn't vote.
76 seats to form government, minus 1 equals 75 votes on the floor in the lower house. 74 on the other side (or sides now) therefore you govern with a single seat majority?
The speaker has a casting vote in the event of tied vote.
The speaker is elected by secret ballot. It is convention that the speaker is from the government but there's nothing in the constitution preventing him/her coming from the opposition or cross benches. In fact, Peter Slipper was a Liberal MP when elected as speaker during the last Labor government. Slipper resigned from the LNP when he took the speaker's role.
The populist far right is gaining in popularity world wide. Here it is still not a huge force but is growing. A very concerning trend.
The enemy of my enemy is my friend, the hard part is to know your enemy! :o
Most media will tell you "It's them over there" that are your enemy. But in reality, as part of day to day life, it's Johnny Corporate next door that is doing the most damage! But the "corporates" are excellent at obfuscation, making sure you think it's the immigrants and terrorists who are to blame for the increasing oil/energy prices, rising food prices, insurance/health, etc., etc..
Muppets like Hanson bite harder than a Great White. Now she is attacking Climate Change Science, Renewable Energy Schemes, Foreign Investment, etc., etc.. Who do you think feeds her with that bullsh1t, ISIS, I doubt it!
The speaker has a casting vote in the event of tied vote.
The speaker is elected by secret ballot. It is convention that the speaker is from the government but there's nothing in the constitution preventing him/her coming from the opposition or cross benches. In fact, Peter Slipper was a Liberal MP when elected as speaker during the last Labor government. Slipper resigned from the LNP when he took the speaker's role.
Slipper was speaker for a minority government... you don't need to do that sort of numbers trick if you get to 76 seats.
I'm waiting for my car to be serviced and your comment about it having to be a 2 seat majority got me thinking... and i'm not really sure what the answer is to be honest.
I just thought 76 seats was a 1 seat majority because you command 75 votes on the floor (v 74 others)... if you loose 1 seat you can't form government in your own right.
Maybe they get to 75 seats and Bob Katter ends up as speaker.
Slipper was speaker for a minority government... you don't need to do that sort of numbers trick if you get to 76 seats.
I'm waiting for my car to be serviced and your comment about it having to be a 2 seat majority got me thinking... and i'm not really sure what the answer is to be honest.
I just thought 76 seats was a 1 seat majority because you command 75 votes on the floor (v 74 others)... if you loose 1 seat you can't form government in your own right.
Maybe they get to 75 seats and Bob Katter ends up as speaker.
I guess the bottom line is that you have to get at least 2 more seats than the rest in order to command a majority. A 76-74 majority becomes a working majority of one if convention is followed and the speaker comes from the government side.
Dig a big hole, chuck all the kents in it, back fill it and start over again.
Dig a big hole, chuck all the kents in it, back fill it and start over again.
Sounds reasonable ;)
Dig a big hole, chuck all the kents in it, back fill it and start over again.
If Kents refers to what I think it might , I am with you , do it now, no trust for the bunch
I guess the bottom line is that you have to get at least 2 more seats than the rest in order to command a majority. A 76-74 majority becomes a working majority of one if convention is followed and the speaker comes from the government side.
A friendly independent can be made speaker therefore maintaining a majority if necessary. Libs will get 76 seats anyway.