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Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread

Reply #210
From the Guardian:

Now it’s clear that Mike Cannon-Brookes has stopped AGL’s “de-merger” and will move the company away from coal-fired power generation.  Cannon-Brookes says that will result in lower prices for consumers and I suspect that he knows what he’s talking about.

It’s probably not such an issue with a Labor government but it’s good to know that successful business folk can counter government inaction.
Cannon Brookes pounded Shareholders with anti board propaganda and won them over when he said Dividends would be reduced with the split. AGL is an income share and not one you buy for growth so even some of the super funds like Hesta were spooked and were going to vote No given they would be affected by reduced dividends.
The AGL board are incompetent which has seen the share price fall dramatically over recent years, Cannon Brookes has made the point the only way forward for AGL and other similar companies is foreign investment to meet early climate change targets and rejig the business ie him and his private investment company Grok ventures kicking in the money. AGL dont have all the money needed unless they have a capital raise which will drop the share price and I dont see Albo kicking in the sort off money needed to turn the dirtiest energy provider in Australia into the cleanest.
About 10-100 billion needed to upgrade all the transmission lines in Aus to handle all the new solar/wind power and what most people dont know is the method of transmission will need to be changed from AC to DC transmission if you want to do it right and that means conversion stations being built and maintained and that means big money.
I'm going to give Cannon Brookes the benefit of the doubt that he hasnt pulled this move just to lower the share price so he can make another full take over bid at a cheaper price but in his propaganda to shareholders he never explained how he is going to deliver on his promises or where the money is coming from. He says he wouldnt do that because he would lose money himself as a 11% shareholder but that all depends on how cheap he gets it for so we will have to wait and see what his next move is...
I will disclose I am a disgruntled shareholder....

Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread

Reply #211
I'm going to give Cannon Brookes the benefit of the doubt that he hasnt pulled this move just to lower the share price so he can make another full take over bid at a cheaper price

Don't worry EB ... energy prices will drop.  This promise, from the goose who wanted the government to buy Virgin with public money.

Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread

Reply #212
While I confess to being a bit of technology advocate, and I love the peak performance of sporty EVs, I have to say I'm a bit disenchanted reading the latest reports on the performance and environmental credentials of current EVs.

It seems if you live inner city, doddle about on 5 or 10 minute trips here or there, on back roads and side streets, they are far superior to fossil fuel vehicles. City or combined cycle is the tag for this, but the minute you step on the freeway (freeway cycle) those green credentials turn into concrete like environmental impact.

(PS; The environmental credentials seem to depend on having previously driven your fossil fuel vehicle into the ground and replaced it with an EV that you intend to keep for at least 120,000k, some say as much as 160,000k. If you replaced your petrol guzzler early before it's use by date, you will never recover the environmental cost of the two vehicle builds, and God help the grid if everybody does it! )

It appears the Lithium ion battery solution is just are not optimised for energy efficiency at sustained freeway speeds, and even more disturbing the longevity of the battery components is slashed for vehicles that operate predominantly in freeway mode. I heard one podcaster make the claim if you care about the environment you must leave your EV parked and hire a hybrid for that long road trip. Not sure that is true, but it's a bit of a tell about the real life performance versus the marketing!

I suppose I should not be surprised, tradies have known for years that Lithium ion batteries are best performed when used in regular short bursts. They deliver heaps of power but to deliver maximum life they should be recharged regularly and not drained if you want them to last and last, repetitive deep cycling / draining or constant demand slashes the longevity figures.

The more I look into this, the clearer it becomes that for heavy transport, long range or freeway operation green hydrogen is the way to go, but we just do not have access to the infrastructure.

It also seems the new big vehicle emissions push is being targeted towards tyre particulates, where your rubber meets the road and pulverises is killing the children and destroying the planet, not even EVs can escape that one. You can see where this is heading!
The Force Awakens!

Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread

Reply #213
Interesting news coming out of the US, with researchers announcing a process to strip 6000kg or carbon form the atmosphere to produce 1000kg of ethylene.

Why is this important, we use ethylene to make plastics, everything from food packaging to vinyl siding for housing. You could have packaging and building products that are effectively net-negative carbon, taking more carbon out of the atmosphere than they create, assuming the do-gooders don't ban the plastics in such products.

If it can be scaled it's a huge game changer, but I'm cynical as it has to scale and it has to make it past woke politics.

I bet there is a shift in the debate regarding carbon capture and storage, the anti-CCS supporters will need to shift in emphasis against some other aspect of mining or energy production.

What will be the anti-xxx debate if it turns out you can use this process to produce solar PV panels which is net carbon negative from the very first day, not just after a decade or two of continuous use, rather than using solar PV structures made from carbon emitting metals, ceramics and glasses.
The Force Awakens!

Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread

Reply #214
While I confess to being a bit of technology advocate, and I love the peak performance of sporty EVs, I have to say I'm a bit disenchanted reading the latest reports on the performance and environmental credentials of current EVs.

It seems if you live inner city, doddle about on 5 or 10 minute trips here or there, on back roads and side streets, they are far superior to fossil fuel vehicles. City or combined cycle is the tag for this, but the minute you step on the freeway (freeway cycle) those green credentials turn into concrete like environmental impact.

(PS; The environmental credentials seem to depend on having previously driven your fossil fuel vehicle into the ground and replaced it with an EV that you intend to keep for at least 120,000k, some say as much as 160,000k. If you replaced your petrol guzzler early before it's use by date, you will never recover the environmental cost of the two vehicle builds, and God help the grid if everybody does it! )

It appears the Lithium ion battery solution is just are not optimised for energy efficiency at sustained freeway speeds, and even more disturbing the longevity of the battery components is slashed for vehicles that operate predominantly in freeway mode. I heard one podcaster make the claim if you care about the environment you must leave your EV parked and hire a hybrid for that long road trip. Not sure that is true, but it's a bit of a tell about the real life performance versus the marketing!

I suppose I should not be surprised, tradies have known for years that Lithium ion batteries are best performed when used in regular short bursts. They deliver heaps of power but to deliver maximum life they should be recharged regularly and not drained if you want them to last and last, repetitive deep cycling / draining or constant demand slashes the longevity figures.

The more I look into this, the clearer it becomes that for heavy transport, long range or freeway operation green hydrogen is the way to go, but we just do not have access to the infrastructure.

It also seems the new big vehicle emissions push is being targeted towards tyre particulates, where your rubber meets the road and pulverises is killing the children and destroying the planet, not even EVs can escape that one. You can see where this is heading!
40% of new carsales are of the ute variety in Aus......there are no EV utes that can do what the present combustion engine type utes do at the moment and the prices are astronomical much like the size of the batteries that take up the base of the car. You are adding a small size car in battery weight as well as asking folk to pay twice as much for the vehicle itself.
I just dont see vehicles like the Ford Lightning, GM Hummer, Rivian etc gaining traction in Aus when conversions are required for the steering assembly etc and the retail price being so high and lack of service and parts.


Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread

Reply #216
What exactly is that ?
I'm with @ElwoodBlues1 on this issue, as light commercial type vehicles EV are well off the mark.

EVs don't have the range or the flexibility under light commercial use conditions, I think the trick for the light commercial market will be Hydrogen / Hybrid type vehicles. Most trade types do a fair bit of travelling to and from sites, usually on freeways, typically fully loaded, the EV performance and range plummets under those conditions.

I do get that most utes are sold to weekend warriors who mostly drive between home and Bunnings, but to get the commercial business a different level of capability is needed that EVs do not deliver at the moment.

Secondly, there is the Toyota issue, there are reasons certain utes, 4WD and vans dominate the tradie market, it's because they are ubiquitous, if you drive 600km to a job and break down you can find spare parts around the next corner.

I suspect agriculture will arrive at a similar conclusion, hydrogen / hybrid. OS it looks like EU countries are making big strides in this direction, with heavy transport heading towards hydrogen. If it works for trucks, it should work for tractors, van and utes.

I did see a nice solar PV pump application recently, solar PV is well suited to applications with short repetitive cycles like a farmer running a lift pump to fill water troughs. You can charge the batteries when the sun shines and use the pump on demand as required. But the ROI is long, it takes a few years of not buying fuel to get to the break even point. I saw it's primary benefit as more of an automation, time management issue.
The Force Awakens!

Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread

Reply #217
For what its worth, I heard someone on radio say that the Ford Ranger (the new one) has been made wider to suit electrification down the track. Don't if anyone here knows anything about it.
2017 - 16th
2018 - Wooden Spoon
2019 - 16th
2020 - dare to dream? 11th is better than last I suppose
2021 - Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022 - Real Deal or more of the same?
2023 - "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss

Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread

Reply #218
Interesting LP, I seem to have heard a fair bit of noise about busses and heavy trucks… I would have thought they were quite a reasonable simile for tradie vehicles ?

Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread

Reply #219
For what its worth, I heard someone on radio say that the Ford Ranger (the new one) has been made wider to suit electrification down the track. Don't if anyone here knows anything about it.
I know in the USA Ford is making changes to accommodate future electrification, in some form, but even so they are some way off being viable for a broad audience.

When the car companies started announcing EV Utes, trucks and buses, the do-gooders switched focus to the pollution left on and around roads, in waterways and in the air as dust from the "crumbling tyres". So expecting to find an widely accepted solution might be ambitious.
The Force Awakens!

Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread

Reply #220
Interesting LP, I seem to have heard a fair bit of noise about busses and heavy trucks… I would have thought they were quite a reasonable simile for tradie vehicles ?
Trucks as hydrogen are genuinely a general purpose go.

Some trucks and buses are a little bit different in that they drive fixed routes on pre-planned schedules, so you can have in-situ charging facilities at a terminus. One nice plan I saw for buses it inductive charging loops embedded in the road at stops and regular intervals.

Trucks that travel point to point, like from the wharfs to warehouses, are being targeted, but they will have a different setup with interchangeable / quick change batteries. But nobody is talking about where the energy is going to come from, it's magic electricity at the moment.

In Melbourne the main R&D at the moment is being done by people like Hyzon, on hydrogen buses for long range interstate routes, this will translate to trucks as well.

There is quite a bit of R&D going on globally for hydrogen heavy transport, trains and ships, etc. etc. Solar PV / battery is just not viable due to the energy requirements.
The Force Awakens!

Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread

Reply #221
I saw an EV digger being used in the Uk.

Generally speaking, they were able to use it for 2 hours and then had to charge it on a Disel generator to get it going again...

They had a solar panel for the charger as a backup but you know, its the UK.  Only useful in summer when they all take holidays.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread

Reply #222
I know in the USA Ford is making changes to accommodate future electrification, in some form, but even so they are some way off being viable for a broad audience.

When the car companies started announcing EV Utes, trucks and buses, the do-gooders switched focus to the pollution left on and around roads, in waterways and in the air as dust from the "crumbling tyres". So expecting to find an widely accepted solution might be ambitious.
Ford are looking at 5 different EV vehicles and are bringing a transit van to Aus for couriers/tradies........as usual from Ford the BS has has already started with dodgy charging figures. 11kw needed to recharge the battery at home, they say 5-7 hours charge time.....not sure how thats going to happen when  a single phase at [email protected] amps(which is max) only gives you about 7.5kw.
That means you need 3 phase at home or you are waiting 11-12 hours on a single phase charger setup.

Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread

Reply #223
Only from 100% flat EB, and from what I hear the majority of battery’s don’t go below 70%.
A bit like your mobi, you charge it every night and don’t turn it off, my 12 month old iPhone rarely gets below 85%.

Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread

Reply #224
40% of new carsales are of the ute variety in Aus......there are no EV utes that can do what the present combustion engine type utes do at the moment and the prices are astronomical much like the size of the batteries that take up the base of the car. You are adding a small size car in battery weight as well as asking folk to pay twice as much for the vehicle itself.
I just dont see vehicles like the Ford Lightning, GM Hummer, Rivian etc gaining traction in Aus when conversions are required for the steering assembly etc and the retail price being so high and lack of service and parts.

Toyota Australia has formed a partnership with VivoPower to produce battery-electric 70 series LandCruisers for mining company use.  They probably don't need great range but the payload is comparable to combustion-engined vehicles.

Then there's the Ineos Grenadier hydrogen fuel cell vehicle that's currently undergoing testing (and Landrover have been testing fuel cell Defenders for some time).  I think that will be the powerplant of choice for folk who need decent range.
“Why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don’t you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don’t you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?”  Oddball