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Messages - PaulP

31
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Jim Park Analysis 2023
It's a pretty good top 10. Some may quibble about the order, but as a collective, they probably were our 10 best players over the season.

Thanks for all your work on this Stephen. Great stuff.
33
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: General Discussions
Quote from: Lods on
I wasn't really trying to emphasise the anger that some in the regional communities feel if they have been adversely affected.
Though no doubt that is a real and potent factor for some people
It was more to point out that to suggest they don't have an understanding of those issues is completely wrong.
They have a great understanding of where the problems lie...probably a greater appreciation than those living in the more affluent suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne.
So in voting they probably feel that an extra voice isn't what's needed....it's somebody to actually do something to address those problems.

Yes, I'm not so sure that simply living among a certain group of people somehow makes you an expert in understanding where the problems lie. I've not seen that happen much. I think the best way forward and the best way of understanding the issues is to study them with proper frameworks and proper methodologies, proper resources and the like. It is, in my opinion, no great surprise that academics who actually study the issues, and earn their stripes from doing so, are all pretty much in favour. I've never been in favour of the idea that the person in the street somehow becomes knowledgable simply by a kind of osmosis. No doubt the rural types who have regular interactions with First Nation people would have some knowledge, maybe over and above the inner city types, but whether that knowledge translates into something constructive is IMO, another matter entirely.
34
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: General Discussions
I certainly accept that it would be harder for folks living among indigenous people, who may be subject to negative behaviours from those indigenous folks, to see past all that and try to understand the deeper structural issues at play. I get that if your car has been vandalised a few times, you may not be feeling particularly charitable or generous towards our First Nation brothers and sisters. But that's not seeing the forest for the trees IMO. The Voice was supposed to play a part in addressing these issues, at least as I understand it.
35
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: The Voice
Quote from: LP on
Actually, the resistance to change is a characteristic of society under duress, it happens in the lead up to and during war. Under social duress the population opts for the status quo.

But, I'd assert that even under different circumstances the referendum would still have failed, because the question didn't offer the answer the wider general public wanted. The question was about as valid as Howard's Republic Referendum.

Was the question disingenuous?

You can look through our history and see that we are resistant to change at the best of times.
36
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: The Voice
The bias is alleviated to some degree by the fact that the 2 polls were conducted by 2 different outfits, Ipsos and YouGov. It's also worth noting the overall conclusions by those individuals quoted, who are experienced in understanding the numbers. Samples include :

More importantly, he said, when "even … a pretty small sample" produces a lopsided result of more than 70 per cent, for example, you can be "pretty confident" the real result is above 50 per cent.


However, they endorsed the YouGov poll in particular as the best available measure, and each agreed there was no scientific evidence to suggest anything other than broad support among First Nations Australians.

"So the sample is very consistent with the idea that Indigenous voters strongly supported the Voice at the time taken, and implies that they are likely to still do so."

Mr Bowe said the results of the two polls were "lopsided enough that we can say with confidence that the Indigenous Voice has strong Indigenous support," even if the exact figure was in question.
37
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: The Voice
I think the "times are tough" argument is pretty weak. To give one example among many, there are people around who spend hundreds of dollars on football memberships, tickets, merch, travel, hotels etc. if their team make finals in a different city. But somehow, standing in that booth on Saturday, with that dinky little pencil in your hand, you can't write the word "yes" because there's a cost of living crisis.

Yeah, not buying it.
41
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: The Voice
Quote from: Lods on
It'd be interesting to see if that vote held up.
A lot of non-indigenous people who were intending to vote 'yes' changed their minds during the course of the year.
I'm sure the majority of indigenous people still supported the yes  vote...but for those, if any, who changed their minds I wonder what caused that change.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-02/fact-check-indigenous-australians-support-for-the-voice/102673042

For those interested, this piece does a bit of a deep dive into this question. As I often say, both God and the devil reside in the detail. At any rate, despite what the politicians say, we are essentially back to square one IMO.
42
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: The Voice
There were two surveys commissioned earlier this year (January and March I believe) canvassing First Nations people and their thoughts on The Voice. 80% in one survey and 83% in the other said they would vote yes. All surveys have limits, and these two are no exception. However big or small the sample spaces may be, they have to be more representative than what people are supposedly hearing. 
43
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: The Voice
Discussions around constitutional recognition for our First Nations people were happening 100 years ago. And what’s the result of a century of stop start, on off discussions ? A resounding no vote. Well, you can’t rush these things I guess. We clearly need a few more select committees, another dozen or so advisory groups, a parliamentary committee or two, and then, most importantly, some thinking time. Maybe in 100 years we can have another referendum.

As watered down and wussy as the Voice was , it’s still better than nothing, and still better than what we have now.  A unique moment in history, and what do we serve up ? A swing and a miss. Well played.
44
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: The Voice
Quote from: Lods on
You know in some ways this referendum may have some positive effects.

One of my main concerns was the level of disappointment that a 'No' vote would have on many first nations people who will be naturally be disppointed by the result.

But it's now firmly on the agenda.
I can see Voice committees being established at various levels of government.
Even those politicians advocating a 'No' vote were at pains to say that whatever the result there were indigenous issues that need addressing.
We'll see how their words will translate into actions.

Again....the important thing is not the voice...it's listening to it, and acting on it.

Well, I guess we'll know in the next decade or so. I'm not hopeful, because I think all these committees you refer to are essentially a way of dragging the discussion on and on, to ensure that nothing actually gets done. Just constantly delaying any action for as long as humanly possible. Traditionally Labor governments are reform governments, and history in our country shows very clearly that people don't like reform.
45
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: The Voice
Quote from: Lods on
Fair dinkum...there is some absolutely absurd judgements being made..............................


Don't worry Lods. You're one of the "good" Queenslanders lol.

I'm not sure you can overstate the importance of a constitutionally recognised Voice. It's not just words on a piece of paper. Having Indigenous groups advising at state and local level is all well and good, but it's not the same as the Voice. The Voice provides a way to have some coordination of diverse indigenous issues, and a way to really have a seat at the table.

So, how about that Treaty that's been on the agenda for decades ? All those in favour......