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Messages - DJC

32
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Finals 2024 Carlton vs Brisbane in Brisbane
Quote from: Baggers on
As is my want and somewhat irritating to some, I look through a psychological lens at our changes for this game and ask myself one simple question... how confident in their bodies to go flat out for 120 minutes will Doc, Williams, Cerra, Fantasia and Gov be? And that is central to my questioning of these changes. We can reasonably assume that Cinc, Lord and Binns would be confident in their bodies to go hard for 120 minutes. But I get the romance of Doc and the idea of going into the game with your biggest names.

Once they run through the banner, any thoughts/worries about injury will be banished.  Thoughts about not being good enough, earning the displeasure of coaches, teammates and fans, letting their families down will persist though and will have the potential to derail the games of many players, and particularly those who aren’t established members of the team.

Hopefully, our trick cyclists will have worked on that.
35
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Finals 2024 Carlton vs Brisbane in Brisbane
Quote from: PaulP on
No one in the football world is giving us a chance, and rightly so IMO. I think we need to be realistic. We stumbled into finals on the back of many weeks of average form. We've had several injuries, and for this game lots of changes and question marks over the players selected, against a team who rarely loses on their home deck. None of which suggest a win IMO.

I don’t think many in the football world gave the Cats a chance.

If we play our best footy, we should win. 

Brisbane has lost two of its last three games, one of which was at the Gabba.  They are flaky, the goal kicking by their key players has been atrocious and they are gettable!
36
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Finals 2024 Carlton vs Brisbane in Brisbane
Quote from: LP on
Yes, as a Sub he might make sense, but even that is limited he can't usefully cover D50 issues. Owies being out has cost us some flexibility because Owies runs square to square.

Secondly, this is one shot, we are the underdogs, and a rookie mistake might end the season. If we still had the double chance it would be different, but now we need as many experienced cool heads as we can muster and trust the plan whatever it may be!

No matter what it's going to be tough, we are without 2 of our 3 main avenues to goal for the biggest game of the season, time for the MC to get inventive.

I largely agree, but not with “avenues” … and I think that it’s more than semantics.

It’s actually two of our three main goal scorers that we are missing.  That means that we have to (a) rely on other players to kick a winning score and (b) use innovative avenues to goal that will give them the best chance of doing that.

Vossy and the MC will have to be incredibly inventive with the way we structure the forward line and how we tweak our transition and team defence.

We should have pulled it off against St Kilda but we’ve got a much tougher opponent tomorrow.  The upside is that Vossy has better weapons to deploy this week … if the MC gets it right.
37
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Finals 2024 Carlton vs Brisbane in Brisbane
Quote from: kruddler on
Lose a hell of a lot?

Like what exactly?

It's not scoring.
It's not possessions.
It's not discipline.
It's not versatility.

Forget about the statistics.  It's about being able to play the position and fulfil the role.  Cincotta is primarily a defender who has shown that he can carry out a run with role on opposition mids or playmakers.  As often happens with those roles, his opponents are intent on getting away form him and don't defend.  He has been opportunistic enough to punish them on the score board in five games this season.

Cincotta doesn't have the the small forward's skill set and he doesn't apply forward pressure, put blocks on for our leading forwards or crumb the ball when it comes to the ground as well as they do.  He also doesn't have the ability to provide the continuous link up between our forwards and defenders that is Fantasia's role.  Zac Williams has the defensive half forward role that Cincotta held down for a couple of games and he has proved to be more effective, and more versatile.

Unless there's a run with role or a vacant spot for a medium defender, Cincotta misses out.
38
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Finals 2024 Carlton vs Brisbane in Brisbane
Quote from: kruddler on
For the record. Cincotta averages .5 goals a game.
...and is playing a negating role more often than not, sometimes from the backline.

Fantasia averages 0.57 goals.
Durdin 0.7.

We lose nothing by playing him instead of one of our other small forwards imo.

In fact, we lose a hell of a lot playing Cincotta as a forward unless he has a shut down role on an opposition forward.  However, Williams is better in that role and Docherty would be too, if that is the task he is set.

Cincotta should come into the team if Cerra or McGovern but he can’t be reinvented as a small forward or link up player.  That’s not his bag.
39
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Finals 2024 Carlton vs Brisbane in Brisbane
Quote from: laj on
Lord, Binns, Moir can because they are fit and in form. Not as if we are playing 23 of those types. They would blend in alot better with the others we have in than non match fit players. No risks needed. Just a fit football team. Our slump started playing half fit, out of form bigger names as you well know. Right now, it is panic button selection.

I prefer Cincotta, Lord, Binns and Moir to Durdin, Motlop and Fantasia and a half fit Cerra.

Lord has done OK but it’s a stretch to say that Cincotta, Binns and Moir are in form.  They have been adequate but, with players coming back from injury, they are easily and quite rightly replaced by better options.
40
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Finals 2024 Carlton vs Brisbane in Brisbane
Quote from: kruddler on
Cincotta or all of Durdin/Motlop/Fantasia ?
Cincotta or Cerra?

Its not about kids.

Cincotta had a purple patch where he shut down opposition guns and hit the scoreboard.  His form since then has been average.  

Hewett is probably a better option to run with Neale and Docherty or Williams will be keeping Zorko honest.  That leaves Cincotta on a half back flank but we’ve got Saad, Cowan, Newman and McGovern who can do that role as good or better.

Motlop, Fantasia and Durdin haven’t been in scintillating form but they’re all capable small forwards with the ability to have an impact.

Cerra is probably the weak link in terms of form and durability but his best is match winning.  If he makes the final 23, his poise and finish could be vital.

The bottom line is that it’s not too difficult to select a decent combination of 20 players.  It’s the last three that present a bit of a conundrum.
41
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Finals 2024 Carlton vs Brisbane in Brisbane
I wonder why footy clubs insist on naming teams on the Thursday evening that are nothing like the line ups that run out on game day.  Footy fans seem to be the only ones taken in.

Unless the club is prepared to wear a fine, the only thing we can be sure of is that 23 of the 26 players named will run out on Saturday.

Hopefully, that 23 will include De Koning and we’ll be able to match up on and apply genuine pressure to Brisbane’s talls.

If we get the combination right, and Jack Russell has got the rehab right, I reckon we can do the same kind of number on Brisbane as Geelong did on Port.