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Topic: 2018 Rd 14; Pre Game Preparations: Carlton vs Collingwood (Read 25265 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: 2018 Rd 14; Pre Game Preparations: Carlton vs Collingwood

Reply #45 –
Quote from: madbluboy on
Last 40 games that he has played.
No, I think LP is correct, it’s the past 40 games.
The graph shows a blip for each round...
Let’s go BIG !

Re: 2018 Rd 14; Pre Game Preparations: Carlton vs Collingwood

Reply #46 –
Where is the consistency in assessing a player.

The call is for more pressure, tackling, intensity, correct?

Yet in the context of the Marc Murphy debate, his average tackle count is up the highest it's been since 2014.

So is there anything Murphy can do for a win with some posters, opposition clubs must be laughing at us!

I think the fan malaise with Murphy is born out of frustration about the club in general, they think some messiah captain and lift it up and drag it over the line. Well on an individual level it hasn't worked with Cripps, and Cripps is about as messiah as you can get in a AFL individual, but reality is it won't work for anybody because it is a fantasy that only exists in the mind of fans!

Murphy is as close to pure silk as we have, and he's been forced into a utilitarian role due to the club's lack of depth. We've done this with so many players this season it's becoming a parody, implemented we are told because it's good for their development. But I don't see it, for me it's like using a Japanese sushi filleting knife to hack beef soup bones!
The Force Awakens!

Re: 2018 Rd 14; Pre Game Preparations: Carlton vs Collingwood

Reply #47 –
With the dearth of quality mature players in our squad can we really afford to lose another in Murphy just atm? I don't think so. Even if he hands over the captaincy next year he would remain a valuable player for us while our young talent is still developing.
Reality always wins in the end.

Re: 2018 Rd 14; Pre Game Preparations: Carlton vs Collingwood

Reply #49 –
Quote from: Thryleon on
What meaning do you take out of it mbb?

That he has been on the decline since 2012. His 30 touches today aren't the same as they were then. He used to bust games open like Cotchin, Martin, Fyfe etc.

Now he's a B grader, that's ok but it just means his salary gets halved.
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: 2018 Rd 14; Pre Game Preparations: Carlton vs Collingwood

Reply #50 –
The last 40 games must fall in a 24 month window of eligible games, if they miss games in that window period their rating drops. It's why Rioli and Murphy's rating have both diminished significantly. The rating keeps dropping with every game they miss!
The Force Awakens!

Re: 2018 Rd 14; Pre Game Preparations: Carlton vs Collingwood

Reply #51 –
Quote
A player's rating is determined by aggregating his points tally based on a rolling window of the previous two seasons. For example, after round six of the 2014 season, a player's rating will be based on matches from round seven of the 2012 season onwards. However, only a player's most recent 40 matches are used in the calculation of his rating. This creates a buffer for players missing matches through injury, suspension, omission or by not being involved in finals. A player's most recent 30 matches are given greater weight in determining his rating. Matches 31 through 40 are progressively reduced in weighting, from 100 per cent down to five per cent for the earliest game in the window.
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: 2018 Rd 14; Pre Game Preparations: Carlton vs Collingwood

Reply #52 –
It's consistent with what I have told you.

Further if the injuries occur within the 30 most recent matches it will have an even bigger effect as the last 30 eligible rounds are loaded!
The Force Awakens!

Re: 2018 Rd 14; Pre Game Preparations: Carlton vs Collingwood

Reply #53 –
Quote from: LP on
It's consistent with what I have told you.

Further if the injuries occur within the 30 most recent matches it will have an even bigger effect as the last 30 eligible rounds are loaded!

Do you think the AFL have a big conspiracy to make Marc Murphy look worse than he actually is?
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: 2018 Rd 14; Pre Game Preparations: Carlton vs Collingwood

Reply #54 –
Quote from: madbluboy on
Do you think the AFL have a big conspiracy to make Marc Murphy look worse than he actually is?

What about Cyril, are you ignoring those stats?

Murphy stats are explained in the very same way that Cyril's stats are explained, they've both missed games which in the AFL ratings system has a huge impact.

Go back and look at Murphy's pure stats, 2017 is the equal best of any year, then look at the AFL chart you want to believe. There is a discontinuity because from pure stats 2011 to 2014 Murphy averaged 99pts, and between 2014 and 2017 he averaged 96pts, which is a 3% drop. But the same period on the AFL site is a 23% change!

The difference is explained by missed games and loadings, it's a problem with windowed analysis because it encompasses feedback as part of the result. The left side peaks are not equal to the right side peaks, because of the feedback, even though Murphy's 2017 statistically equals his 2011.
The Force Awakens!

Re: 2018 Rd 14; Pre Game Preparations: Carlton vs Collingwood

Reply #55 –
Rioli has had a poor 2 years by his standards and the ratings reflect that.
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: 2018 Rd 14; Pre Game Preparations: Carlton vs Collingwood

Reply #56 –
Quote from: madbluboy on
Rioli has had a poor 2 years by his standards and the ratings reflect that.

Murphy's 2017 was equal of any in his career, better than any other year listed on that graph, but the graph does not reflect that because of the way the figures are calculated! ;)
The Force Awakens!

Re: 2018 Rd 14; Pre Game Preparations: Carlton vs Collingwood

Reply #57 –
I don't care what the stats say, we are desperately short of classy experienced players, we need him to stay
 

Re: 2018 Rd 14; Pre Game Preparations: Carlton vs Collingwood

Reply #58 –
I think it's time for him to handover the captaincy solely for the "generational change" reason.

But I want him to stay.
Does anyone really think we're not missing him at the moment

Re: 2018 Rd 14; Pre Game Preparations: Carlton vs Collingwood

Reply #59 –
Quote from: Lods on
I think it's time for him to handover the captaincy solely for the "generational change" reason.

But I want him to stay.
Does anyone really think we're not missing him at the moment

I reckon there'd be a few on here who would think that.