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Messages - LP

31
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 4 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Fremantle in Adelaide
For me good form in the ruck isn't just about personal stats, it's about stopping opponents from getting similar results. It's always been one of my arguments against some of our alternative 2nd ruck options, because despite doing OK themselves they aren't able to restrict their opponents, they let opponents of the leash.

So for me a ruck in very good form dominates and supresses opponents, at the moment TDK is playing well but for me he is mostly breaking even with his direct opponents.

Don't get me wrong, he's playing well, and going head to head with very good rucks like Gawn and Nankervis, when he puts them to the sword like they have done to him in the past that's when he'll be at his best.
32
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 4 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Fremantle in Adelaide
A consistent home and away team needs stability and understanding your roles.

TDK has been great in the ruck -  looks much more battle hardened now and winning more tackles and clearances..and hit outs than last year. I don't think he is in good form its his natural growth and no one knows where his ceiling is just yet. Lets find out where that is and we will never find out if his rhythm is disrupted.
Agreed, he is not in good form yet but his confidence is growing and form should improve with confidence.

If anything it's an even bigger positive because he is finding ways to have influence even if he isn't dominating. In particular his 2nd Efforts and Body work are up on previous seasons, which makes it possible to put the brakes on opposition while making life just a little easier for Cripps and our other Mids.

One of the biggest things rucks learn with experience is where to be and when, putting themselves in just the right position to leave space for team-mates while hindering opponents. Kreuzer was always good at it, Gawn is exceptional, it happens 5m or 10m away from where the ball is to force opponents to deviate in a chase or be delayed closing space.
33
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 4 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Fremantle in Adelaide
I think freos forwards aren't that tall but have a bit of toe.
The Freo F50 is taller than us, three KPFs over 195cm and Jackson rests forward!

Could be a tough week for TDK, Jackson is in good form.

Freo have finally realised smashing Jackson in the ruck trying to win taps means nothing when you have a player with his sort of ground skill and agility. If a fan was naïve enough just to look at the rucks stats it would suggest O'Brien smashed Jackson, but the ruck stats are meaningless, Jackson made O'Brien look like a traffic cone.

When the ball got locked into the Freo F50, Treacy took some of the ruck and Jackson became a mobile 4th KPF in Charlie style.
34
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs North Melbourne
I good win, but it feels like we still have not yet clicked.

It's so hard to tell in modern footy, to gauge the intensity, are the fumbles pressure and pace related or just players being a bit off.

From the start BigH looked like he was on, Hewett also looked switched on, Cripps was switched on, probably McGovern, the rest seemed to be a bit off the pace. I thought the Norp kids in the midfield showed us up for pace at various times, but they made bad choices under pressure which turned it over.

I thought it was a good from Carroll, given Norp are young it is a game that is good game to use as relative judgement for Carroll's draft peers. ( The classical music bloke Wardlaw looks to be a pick of the litter, reminds me of a young Voss. )

Marchbank unlucky again, but horribly out of touch early, that start was a goal away from becoming an MC shocker.

Fantasia, this is a player who has been in the system a decade this year and he looks timid, not sure AFL game time is doing him any favours, he looks massively down on confidence and off the pace.

Elijah Hollands started sketchy but ended up showing what I had expected from Fantasia. Played like a bloke who knows Walsh is returning, played like his life depended on it. If Elijah keeps playing like that it's going to make life very interesting at MC.

TDK slow start, still not convinced he's a solo against the likes of Xerri, TDK had some 2nd half influence but mostly due to Xerri's errors. It's a weird game style the AFL is going through at the moment, at one stage we had BigH versus Larkey in the centre, it's like using your best wine glasses as a hammer and chisel. Sooner or later someone is going to suffer a tragedy and this trend will end.
37
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs North Melbourne
So Weiters, Marchbank and Motlop available.

Weiters is an automatic, what of the others, I suspect not?

I think the obvious outs will be Young, and if needed Fantasia and probably Carroll(unlucky) to allow a reshuffle.

Cunningham is unlucky if he goes out because he has not done much wrong but he hasn't hit the scoreboard much either, same applies to Fogarty and Owies. But this may be the role they play while BigH is up and about. They have the experience over Carroll, so unless Carroll gets a F50 gig then he is unlucky. Cunningham and Fogarty are also mid capable.

Durdin is probably the least utilitarian, but he might scrape in again as an emergency as it's a bit tough to give a player the axe off the back of just a few minutes. For me Binns was the natural to get a run after Doc went down, with either one of Binns or Boyd getting further up the field to have a crack at hitting the scoreboard.

I'm still a bit surprised Durdin got a run ahead of Binns, I have to wonder what it is that Binns is doing wrong because he looks quite good at the lower level.
40
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: The Zuton factor - Pressure pressure pressure pressure pressure pressure
The thing with pressure acts is that they're nebulous.  As Matty Cottrell's comment implies, the people who matter at footy clubs value some player actions that many spectators - and commentators - may not even notice.
Yep, I said as much about Owies deep running last season, while some want him dropped for not kicking goals every game.

However, I bet the coach and the team notice him just tens of seconds apart levelling up the numbers at both ends of the ground. Probably doesn't even get a stat for it, but it's worth far more than many of the AFL's so called "Pressure Acts!"

Same applies to Cottrell, sometimes you just have to work hard to close of space to be a contributor, he does it often but you won't see it on TV because it actually stops the ball going to where he is!

Yet if Cottrell and Owies hesitate in making the ground, they'll probably find themselves in a contest and get a "Pressure Act" or "Tackle" stat! ;)
42
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs North Melbourne
David King showed our scoring from turn overs is up 35 percent from last year. Also he attended a preseason session and Voss was focusing on ball movement only using handballs and he showed footage of us implementing it last week.
I think this is mostly due to stability in the playing and coaching group.

The focus on training specific tactics, or developing new tactics, isn't anything special, you just have to be around long enough for it to happen. On the flipside, stay around too long and the innovation can stall.
43
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs North Melbourne
It's the nature of the modern game, I wouldn't read too much into the turnovers unless some has drastically different figures from the wider AFL averages, Fans think everybody should be going at 80%, it's a fantasy for most players week in week out, 80% is a highlight game.

On the figures, people think I'm anti-Fantasia but at the moment for a player of Fantasia's experience his numbers are shocking, no matter how cheaply he has arrived the team has to have even contributors or it fatigues everybody else. Owies, Cunningham or Fogarty's work rate is worth 10x the odd Fantasia highlight, even if they didn't have the same goal assists.
44
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: CV and mad panic behaviour
Ignore the Netflix dock stuff, it's truly fiction.

Of course it's possible to engineer a virus, but it's nowhere near as easy and as cheap as media like to imply.

One of the leading authorities on the Wuhan lab is the Aussie who was working there at the time, she said the claims were fantasy and the media ignore her. She isn't just an epidemiologist, she is an actual virologist.

Virologists will tell you the natural creation of such virus is common, what isn't natural is it becoming a pandemic, that's become possible due to human activities like packing live minks, stoats, civets, ducks, dogs and bats into sustained close proximity. Just that practice alone makes the Lab look like a toy, nature is 10000000X more powerful.