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Messages - Lods

2
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 3 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs North Melbourne
Kemp was used as a key forward and key defender but was unable to win a place in the firsts in either of those roles.  In his own words:

"I was, and still am, open to my strengths of being able to play multiple positions.

Vossy and I, we sat down last year and pieced together what we wanted to go after. We always wanted to keep the prospect of me being able to play multiple positions or play forward up our sleeve, but we just all agreed that we wanted to go after one role and being really clear on that.

I still like the idea of being able to play multiple positions, depending on what happens in a game or if there are areas I need to fill. But the continuity of just locking in one role and really going after that, it was good for me. It just gave me that clarity that I needed, in terms of what I wanted to go after."

The club could change his focus to key forward with the ability to go back but I suspect that his attributes lend themselves more to playing in defence.

Noticed him playing a bit forward today.
Kicked 1-1
10
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond
I did remember what you said about the preliminary final side.
I think that it also had a bit to do with expectations.
I thought our race was run, we'd done well but that it was a bridge too far on a foreign field, and that ended up being the case.
I kind of remember you had the opposite view and even posted that you couldn't see why we couldn't go all the way.
Was it team selection...or did we just run out of steam.
We'll never know.
We both have different opinions as to why we lost.

I also recognised that now you have elevated Tom above Pittonet.
Bias can be positive or negative, strong or weak and that's my perception of where we're at at the moment.
You still haven't completely warmed to Tom, but for now consider him a better option than Pittonet.
On the other hand I probably have a 'postitive' bias and maybe see him as our standout number one going forward...but yep still with some improvement to come.

I really can't see Pittonet playing a lot of senior football this year and in that respect your one ruck plus back-up is probably how we'll play most of the season.
But if Pittonet starts dominating and Tom get's injured or drops off considerably who knows what the end of season games will look like.
11
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond
I do think you have a bias towards and against some players.
We all do.
So that's no biggie.
It only becomes an issue when we believe that we are the only ones who are 'right' and everyone else is a bit thick and doesn't really understand the points we're making.
What may seem a good assessment at the time might look a bit short sighted 12 months down the track.
I think we'd all be a touch embarrassed if we had a look at some of the things we wrote 4 or 5 years ago.

I'm biased
I favour the hard worker, less skilled player.
I'll prefer them over a more talented player who doesn't always go at full effort.
I'll give them credit and comment on them, knowing at the same time they'll likely be rubbished because others see them as a liability.
I like to see the little positives and their little wins.
It may be as simple as a Wiggins shepherd for Judd.

The last person to recognise our bias is ourselves.
In in-game threads you can almost predict when someone with bias will step in with the negative comment.
You won't hear the same from that poster if the player does something well.
A lack of bias shows when we give mention to both the positive and the negative.

The thing is these are all different viewpoints.
Because football is a complex game.
And it's a team sport
The champion player is often only able to do the things they do because the support is there for them to perform.
It's all so full of variables like development, playing position, form, injury etc.

You made good points on the Silvagni v TDK issue. I understood them. I could see merit in them.
But looking big picture/future what was the best option.
Who had the most upside-Tom or Jack.
Which player did we think was going to end up the better and more valuable player?
Who needed game time at senior level?

12
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond
People remember the good things he does, but remember them happening more than they actually do. His actual output has been relatively poor considering the hype.
Thats why i come across as negative, because i point out he hasn't been as good as people say. Showing potential, absolutely. Not maximising it......yet.

It's the old 'unholy trinity' of player evaluation.
Observation, Statistics and Bias

Each has it's limitations.
Observation-What someone sees at the ground is different to what someone views on the television. Small efforts/ one percenters can be picked up on the vision or totally missed through both mediums depending on your concentration at the time or your position in the stands.

Statistics- are useful but are notoriously dubious because they are a raw figure that can describe a number of sceanrios.
As an example10 effective kicks that go to a team-mate don't necessarily advantage a team in the same way as another ten. It's situational

and finally
Bias-even the best of us if, we have a pre-determined opinion of a player, will give a greater emphasis to the strengths or faults we see.

As an example
Poster 'A' will say-
Harry had a good game played well around the ground, missed a couple, but the good outweighed the bad."
Poster 'B' will say-
Harry missed two sitters, nearly cost us the game, momentum killer"
 (You won't hear a peep about the good aspects of his game.)

It's why we see players differently....and neither is completlely right or wrong.
They're just different opinions.
And they're our opinions at different times in a player's career.

So if some say early in 2023 that TDK isn't quite reaching expectations...it's probably a fair comment.
Ask the question early in 2024 and a few folks have probably changed sides.
The trick is not to take too long before you come around or you might miss the boat. ;)  :D



13
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond
Marchbank (if fit), McGovern, Kemp, Weitering and Young.
Do they all fit?

Rumours should be taken with a great deal of caution.
But rumours sometimes have elements of truth, even if it's not the full story.
There were some around last year regarding the relationship in terms of the 'level of confidence' between some of our defenders.
I want to see how they all combine and work together when Weitering and Marchbank return
14
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond
I wasn't suggesting we have damaged him. Just pointing out that its more complex than simply play the kids and get them up to speed.

No doubt.
And the folks in the best position to make those decisions are those who work closest with them.
In the past there's been some fair criticism of the way we develop players.
'Development' has taken a back seat to 'results' at times.

I'd like to think we're maybe getting better at that with the current regime in place.
Binns is probably a good example of how we're taking a more measured approach.
Despite calls for his inclusion towards the end of last season, after some great form in the VFL, there was a resistance to pull the switch.
I'm sure we'll see him at some stage this year.
But in the end the greatest benefits for his development will come when he starts mixing it at AFL level.
15
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 1 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond
You can also ruin a player and his confidence by gifting them games before they are ready for it.
Dow and O'Brien immediately spring to mind.
Doubley so for young rucks/kpps.

The Dow and O'Brien situation was an intersting one.
Bolton played them early and they seemed to be going OK.

Teague came in and reverted to his more experienced group.
Have a look at Dow's stats in 2018-2019 and you can actually see the point where it goes off the rails.
"Rounds 12-13 2019."

I don't think DeKoning has been damaged by being 'gifted'  games early.
I think he's been managed well, getting games and experience as it was considered he needed that exposure.
He's progressing well over the last two seasons...and the best may be yet to come.