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Messages - blueianh

2
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: VFL 2024 Rd 16 Carlton vs Footscray at Footscray
Beaten by a narrow margin again.  This time 79-88 we blew it when we gave up 4 goals in time on in the 3rd to go from an 8 point lead to a 16 point deficit.  Hewett and Carroll got leather poisoning (and Hayes again) and Lewis Young and Sam Durdin both stood up well as key defenders.  If they drop Marchbank - and he should be dropped on last night's performance, but maybe they want to give him 2 in a row - then both are showing decent form.  Young has probably been better the last 2 weeks but poor b  efore that, Durdin has been more consistently decent.  Maybe if Weiters needs a break they could both come in.  Carroll was off for a while in the last - hopefully nothing to worry about but I don't see him pushing into the team anyway.  Orazio went off injured in Q1 and Jack Martin was activated.  Jack didn't do much but first game back after a long lay-off.  Other than Hewett, Hayes Carroll and Lewis Young no-one cracked 20 possessions.  Motlop only 13 possessions but did look dangerous when he got it and his 9 tackles was second only to Hewett's 10.  Binns and Lord were quieter than they have been, Moir busier (still only 13 possessions) but none seemed to be knocking the door down for selection in the ones.  Cuningham only 18 possessions and not as silky with them s usual.  My view is either Young or Durdin for Marchbank - maybe both if Weiters needs a rest or they decide against the Pitto/TDK combination.  Hewett or maybe Jack Carroll if we want more grunt in the middle - prefer Hewett but question is whether we need more one-paced mids, even one as good as Hewett.  Maybe Kennedy may need a spell and either of them could cover his midfield role but neither has his marking presence.  Williams was subbed off in the ones but unless they bring in Motlop or gamble on Jack Martin off only a short game back I don't know we have a like-for-like replacement.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 18 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs
@ianh,

Part of my post which i didn't really include (that i was using to make my arguments) was everyones age.

That is....
The 4 oldest players on are list are...
Newman - 31y5m
Docherty - 30y8m
Saad - 29y11m
Williams - 29y9m

so in a couple years, they may all be gone.
Then we would be left with the following players who will all be 2 years older than their listed age here....
Cincotta - 27y6m
Boyd - 25y9m
Cowan - 19y7m
...and even if you include Billy Wilson - 19y you can see what i'm talking about.

Remove the top 4 from our 'best 22' and suddenly we are in all sorts
We need to ensure we have a couple lockdown players available to go in a couple years time. Cincotta will be 29-30 by then, so its not really a viable option long term either.

Well that is another matter, I was thinking pretty much of the now.  Agree that there isn't a lot in the small defender basket to come through.  Cowan is young and Wilson younger.  One or both of the Camporeale twins might end up running off a back flank.  As we lose the older 4 over the next couple of years we will have the opportunity to bring players in and small defenders aren't the hardest roles to fill through trading.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: VFL 2024 Rd 16 Carlton vs Footscray at Footscray
How do you take someone who is not quite up to fulltime AFL standards, but has the leadership quality you need, and keep them happy playing VFL?
Making the Club somewhere you don't want to leave helps, but these guys are professionals so it is very difficult if there are weaker teams out there that could offer them a regular run in the firsts.  However if they are genuinely not quite up to fulltime AFL such that they don't have those sorts of offers they may be prepared to hang around for the prospect of injury or somesuch opening up a spot.  In another thread I just mentioned Scott Howell, 39 games in 6 years but a last-minute injury call up in 1981 makes him the only player in VFL/AFL history to be the third generation to play in a premiership (his father Carlton Hall of Famer Jack "Chooka" Howell Jnr winning one in 1947 and Jack senior being BOG for the Swans when they downed Collingwood (God bless them) in 1918).  So just maybe if regular seniors service isn't on offer back-up in a flag-contending team might be preferred.   
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 18 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs
"Small defenders are scarce." Don't agree, largely for reasons that you identify in the remainder of your post.
"Docherty is out." True
"Williams is now a forward." Yes, but if we need a small defender more than his current role he can slot back in.
"Cincotta is a tagger now."  Ditto Williams comment.
"We have Boyd and Saad who are more of the blokes you want going up the field disposing. Then you have newman and cowan playing more of a lockdown role." So there's 4 small defenders just there, plus Williams and Cincotta.
"Looking through the rest of the list, and that's about it. Cupboard is bare behind them."  Pretty true, though Billy Wilson looks a likely prospect not quite ready yet, ditto Lord although he is more a mid I could see his determination and defensive nous translating into defence as long as he isn't matched up on someone with pace as he isn't quick.  There's also a few more players who are more naturally suited to other parts of the ground who can be pressganged into service if need be.
Even if you mean quality small defenders are scarce I would disagree.  Saad and Newman are clearly quality.  I am a big fan of Boyd, we should be using his lovely kicking more.  Cincotta was doing a great job as a lockdown defender before getting shifted on-ball.   Williams has shown in the past he can be a weapon of half back, albeit he was badly out of form before being moved forward.  I am a rap for Cowan though he is still young and has some rough edges.  It's not the 1981 brigade (Hunter, Klomp both reigning All-Australians, Doull,, English, and Austin, with G Whitnall in reserve and Harmes and McConville available to shift into defence if needed - the talls being reigning All-Australian Geoff Southby, Woof Perovic, and Tatts Bortolotto with Scott Howell slotting in as a late replacement for Southby in the GF to stand Peter Moore quite effectively and Swan McKay able to swing back if needed.  Any wonder we were in the middle of 3 flags in 4 years?)
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: VFL 2024 Rd 16 Carlton vs Footscray at Footscray
The Dogs are 3rd, but on the decline. Their losses have all been recent.
Have we improved enough to challenge them? I wouldn't think so. Too many guys not producing enough.
Monahan, Moir, Sam Durdin, Akuei, Mirkov, Lemmey: too many doing not enough.
Just a wee bit harsh on Durdin, but the others I agree with.  Monahan very much a project player, Moir and Lemmey young and show a bit but both need to get some fire in their belly if they are going to make it, theu have the tools.  Mirkov and Akuei experiments coming to a close I would think, although the last 2 weeks Dom has shown more than in his entire previous career, but his problem is I think he has to come off category B rookie status and I don't think he has done enough to warrant a standard rookie much less main list place.  Would love to see him keep up the good work and make me eat my words,  and his form of the last 2 weeks replicated consistently might just do that.

Are we not able to let our more project players develop at a suburban club?  Or do those not picked for the 2s have to sit the round out?
7
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 18 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Western Bulldogs
A few players might be sore , but assuming everyone comes up as seems to be the clubs position the players it seems to me under pressure to keep their spots this week are Fantasia Cottrell Kemp and O Hollands.  Possible ins (assuming Martin comes back via the 2s as he should) Binns, Carroll. Cunningham, S Durdin, Hewett, Lord,  Marchbank, Motlop, Pittonet, Wilson & Young.  .I can't see anyone else.  Hewett I think has to come back.  Of the other possible ins I would say no to Durdin and Marchbank on their performances in the 2s both this week and overall, likewise Motlop though he was much better this week.  Lord and Wilson impressive but want to see more of them.  I think Wilson not ready for firsts yet and Lord I just need to see more of.   Not a lot of hurt factor I suspect but a goer and works hard defensively which would help in the firsts.  Not quick though.  Binns and Carroll I don't think are much of an upgrade, good seconds players and deserve a look at at some stage, not this week for mine.  Pittonet I don't think against the dogs despite their height they don't have the crash and bash ruckman.  That leaves Cuningham and Young, both of whom have traits we need but issues that worry me.  Both were good against the Giants after being ordinary previously.  Both have shown they have the talent but not produced consistently.  But this week I would take the chance on both.  Cunners body holds up and he is an upgrade on most of our smalls.  Maybe as sub if concerned about his ability to run out a full game.  I think we need a second tall defender and we simply haven't been playing one.  It bit us badly against the Giants when Weiters was hampered and Kemp outsized as you would expect.  Perhaps should have tried McGovern or Weiters (despite the corkie) on Hogan but  really showed up the risk of going into a game with only 1 genuine key defender.  Problem is of course lack of a quality second option.  Marchbank more of a third tall again and looking a mile off it at the moment, Durdin has been a good seconds player but not looking in particularly good form at the minute and Young unrecognizable from his 2022 self, but did have a much better game this week.  I say seize the moment and give him a shot.  He also is a relief option in the ruck if we don't want to have Harry out of the forward line too long.  Not expecting much but I would throw him the chance and say there's a spot for you if you perform. So if Hewett Cuningham and Young are the 3 ins, who of the 4 possible outs keeps his spot.  That is a tough one.  Hollands was busiest but too often ineffective.  Fantasia ineffective again and has really only the one good performance.  Cottrell was poor but first up after a long break probably should have come back via the 2s,  Question is having had the run do you back him to step up or do you send him back to the 2s to get miles in the legs.  Kemp slaughtered but shouldn't have been asked to stand Hogan, so I give him a Mulligan and he is the one who survives - besides which we probably need the extra height especially  for the doggies so even though the changes aren't like for like I think that is actually a good thing.

Without looking at the Bulldogs lineup to contemplate specific matchups something like:
Newman   McGovern Young
Saad          Weitering   Kemp
Acres         Cripps        E Hollands
Cincotta     McKay      Williams
Kennedy    Curnow     Owies
TDK            Hewett     Walsh
Boyd Cerra Cowan Fogarty Cuningham

If Weiters injury bad enough to rest him I'd bring in Durdin (been in better form than Marchbank and more genuine key position) and let him and Young compete for the 2nd KD spot.  If both fall flat the incentive is there for Marchbank or we just live with the single KD structure for want of anyone putting their hand up.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: VFL 2024 Rd 14: Carlton vs Richmond at Richmond
One of the real problem with Akuei's growth and development has been the fact that he's played back, forward, ruck, even the wing, and not been able to settle into a position. He's a slow burn type of player. He's gone to the back line and ruck for this year, what's his position? Perhaps keep playing him as a second ruck for the rest of the year? Arguably with O'Keeffe out of the side, it may have came out of necessity. But this means he doesn't play permanently as a defender. Still, it looks like he's really showing something there. If he keeps going the way he is in that role, then he's a real chance of becoming a category a rookie next year. Clearly he was going to take time to develop, but the signs are there that as a second ruck, he's showing some promise.
I would love to see Dom show out enough to justify keeping, this game is the first I have seen him doing that.  But is it a outlier or the start of a breakthrough?  Prior to this game I had him out the door, it will take more like this week to save him but I'm rooting for him.
9
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: VFL 2024 Rd 14: Carlton vs Richmond at Richmond
Lord is a handy type but like Binns a lightly built player who needs more size to play senior footy but he can find the footy which is important.
Carroll and McMahon to me are the standouts in this team, more class and composure than the others and more senior ready if in McMahons case he ever gets drafted.
Mirkov again won his fair share of hitouts but I wasnt impressed....
Sam Durdin was well beaten by a young kid called Gray and Lewis Young looks disinterested. Marchbank unsighted and Cuningham showed glimpses of form but faded. Moir kicked a goal but was unsighted otherwise.
Lemmey later and Akuei early showed some good form but dont play four quarters...

Like McMahon generally speaking but didn't think he showed out particularly this week.  Couple of goals, only 11 disposals and 3 marks but in fairness the conditions weren't suited to big guys and he didn't get many decent looks at it.

More generally, they ran over us in the end a 6 goal loss.  On the positive side Akuei early and Lemmey late looked bona fide AFL players.  Probably too late for Dom, sadly, but early days for Harry and I wouldn't be writing him off. 

Cooper Lord was very busy and I like his 2 way running.  Not sure about his hurt factor, but love his inside and defensive work.  Should be very valuable at 2nds level and may bring a point of difference in the firsts with his defensive side.  Early days but worth keeping an eye on.  Not in firsts discussions yet I would have thought. 

Carroll and Lemmey came home with a wet sail and showed AFL traits but the former might struggle to oust any incumbent in his role and the latter still a ways off ready but if replicates that sort of performance he puts himself in the frame either as a forward relief ruckman or if either of Charlie or Harry become unavailable.  Binns again very busy and keeps pressing his case for a shot in the firsts.  Mirkov dominated the taps as you would expect but nowhere near pressing his case for retention on the list much less elevation for a senior game.  Cunners was good on limited (and I presume managed) minutes but not ready to elevate yet.  Other than that big Durds was serviceable and could come in at a pinch but again he isn't outing anyone at the moment.  Youngs stats read OK but he was pretty ordinary to my mind, likewise Marchbank is not showing much reason to consider rushing him back.  We know however he is a highly regarded player internally.  Little Durds looks to have done the shoulder again and 4 disposal games from Monahan and Moir speak for themselves.  I think that is all our senior/rookie listed guys.  As for the VFL listed and top-up guys Prout and Ferronato were the standout to my eye.



All in all no-one demanding a spot in the firsts but a few who could step in to cover injury/suspension/workload management issues that might arise.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: VFL 2024 Rd 14: Carlton vs Richmond at Richmond
Down 2 goals at 3QT 43-55.



Cooper Lord continuing to be very busy, may be our best.  Binns busy as usual.  Big Durds holding strong in defence.  Jack Carroll started getting busy in Q3.  No-one really putting their hand up for seniors, Cunners looks to still need some more miles in the legs before being ready for consideration.  Game still in the balance.
11
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: VFL 2024 Rd 14: Carlton vs Richmond at Richmond
Wet Q2 the Tigers handled better.  Goalless quarter for us down 16-35 at half time.  With the weather and Tigers running the ball in more Akuei's intercept opportunities dried up, but he is still one of our better players.  Big Durds stood up in defence, Lord Binns and Cunners also handy, Cunners more class than quality.
12
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: VFL 2024 Rd 14: Carlton vs Richmond at Richmond
Down 14 to 19 at QT

Who slipped Aliir Aliir into Dom Akuei's jumper?  He looks a footballer for the first time ever. 

No idea from the team about the last kick inside 50, intercepted time after time.  Cooper Lord busy looks an industrious footballer but I think he lacks hurt factor.  Should be a valuable 2nds player but I don't she firsts potential except maybe as a two-way player who brings lots of defensive pressure.  And that is a type of player we could do with.  Those 2 have been our best I think along with Cunners who is easing back into it nicely and Binns who is always busy but again his possessions don't hurt the opposition much.  The 2 Durdins doing OK but neither screaming "pick me pick me" for the seniors.  Logan Prout probably the  pick of the VFL boys.  Meanwhile Moir was I think touchless and Monahan only the 1 disposal.

Mirkov dominating the hitouts 11 (plus Akuei has 2) to Richmond stotal of 4.

At this atage only Cunners maybe pressing a case for elevation.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: VFL 2024 Rd 13 Carlton vs Southport at Carlton
Fantasia has been unimpressive but has been fulfilling a role - Cottrell's role basically.  Cottrell does it better and if it comes down to a choice between them Cotters will win.  And in the pure small forward role his diminished pace, inability to kick over a jam tin and avoidance of physical contact puts him behind the 8 ball.  What he has is experience and nous and that has got him a gig during our injury crisis but I think with a full list he is not in the 23 or even in the first couple in line for promotion.  But a full list is rare as unicorn crap so it will come down to who is out I suspect.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 15 2024 Post-Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong
Apparently Martin has head up to qld to have the same calf treatment that saw him in good nick come finals time.

I like Martin, but this smacks of getting a bit desperate which might mean his body has simply broken down again. 

For mine, I dont care about the names, it's all about the team performance and for the first time I'm really comfortable with where the coaches can take us.
Believe he went and is now back.  If he can repeat the timing and quality of his run last year we could be hailing it as a stroke of genius.
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Robert Heatley Stand / Re: VFL 2024 Rd 13 Carlton vs Southport at Carlton
From our 23 last night, i'd have Durdin and Fantasia as player #22 and #23.

Cunners and Motlop in to replace them is an improvement IMO.
Fit and in form I have no doubt.  But ongoing fragility is a problem with Cunners and Mots isn't yet putting in enough and consistent enough effort for mine.  True the supply isn't great and Mots seems the type to lift at the higher level but I think he has to earn the promotion.  Durds had little chance to show his wares on Friday albeit that one of his efforts in particular was ordinary and Fantasia probably put in his best effort though still not enough to hold his spot once others are back,  I think Cunners needs more time in the 2s and whilst you could promote Mots on potential I am not sure it is anything but shuffling deckchairs on the Titanic.