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Messages - kruddler

8387
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: 2018 Rd 18: Post Game Partying: Carlton vs Gold Coast
So Cripps dominated again, as we all know. Got a perfect 10 in the coaches votes, again.

Here's a stat i stole from facebook.

Quote
Polling 8+ AFL Coaches votes in 2018

1x: 73 players
2x: 34 players
3x: 12 players
4x: 6 players
5x: Trent Cotchin
6x: Nat Fyfe, Max Gawn, Tom Mitchell
7x:
8x: PATRICK CRIPPS

Brownlow bound?

130 players have received 8+ votes from the coaches in a game this year.
Only 1 has done it more than 6 times.
8388
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: 2018 Rd 18: Post Game Partying: Carlton vs Gold Coast
Quote from: Thryleon – on
To add some light and shade to this discussion somewhat, using Anthony Koutoufides in 2004 as a little bit of a benchmark about what the norm was for an AFL player then, you quickly see that players get much more of the footy these days and the statistical comparison doesnt quite add up.

Where Cripps and Murphy are seeing the ball 35+ times, Kouta was having his best games getting close to 30 touches and his poorer games his stats were in the teens and it might be fair to say that the playing field is not quite comparable between them and leave that as a footnote to the discussion with the only conclusion being that currently, Cameron Polson is yet to stamp his AFL credentials and that he has another season or two to do so.

What I do worry about is that our midget sized coach better not have a soft spot for midget sized players with a heart of gold just because that reflects the way he sees himself.

@Flyboy, this is all about discussing footy.  If you don't like it, keep scrolling.  Kruddler and I are having a rather grown up discussion regarding the merit of a teenager, and how to measure it, using empirical evidence from reputable websites and prior examples.  If not for these discussions in a season where we have been diabolically bad, what the feck else would you like us to talk about???

Lets assume that 30 touches today is the same as 25 touches previously. Seems about right to me. That is an increase of 20% on the figures previously.

20% on top of Simpsons early figures are still not up to Polsons figures.

FWIW, i was never saying Polson is going to be as good as simpson, or had a better start to his career or whatever.
Simply stating that it is too early to make a definitive call on Polson based solely on his possession count at this stage, which some people are doing.
8389
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: 2018 Rd 18: Post Game Partying: Carlton vs Gold Coast
Quote from: Thryleon – on
Point is that Simpsons stats are artificially deflated for his first three games by playing feck all minutes, with 0 posessions.

THAT is what you call statistical bias, even though your underlying point has merit.

Not that it matters, but lets use the first 8 games, without the first 3.

Average possessions jumped from 2.75 -> 4.4 possessions per game.

In Simpsons 4th game, he played 82% game time and amassed 9 touches.
In Polsons 8th game, he played 85% game time and managed 15 touches.

Simpsons first 3 games were certainly not great, but the rest of them (up to date) are not any better than what Polson is putting out....despite being older at the same stage of their career.
8390
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: 2018 Rd 18: Post Game Partying: Carlton vs Gold Coast
Quote from: Thryleon – on
I agreed with you regarding polson being first in the gun.

There is something endearing about him, but I take exception to the stats.

Simpson played sporadically in his first three games registering zero possessions. He said recently that in two of the games he was only on the Park halfway through the last quarter.

...and?

He wasnt good enough to get more game time. Doesnt change anything.

Point is that early days, both players are struggling....both for game time and to simply get the ball.

People are writing off Polson because of crap stats.
Just showing people that crap stats 'means' that Simpson can't play either.
OR
Perhaps don't write players off so early is the point.
8391
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: 2018 Rd 18: Post Game Partying: Carlton vs Gold Coast
Quote from: ElwoodBlues1 – on
Shawny was accurate IMO and the kid is lucky to be playing because glimpses of anything great are rare....
Have a gander at these stats.....Polson had 4 disposals @ 25% DE with 2 clangars...plus 4 tackles.......Not really a cracker of a game you would agree.
He is obviously a popular player with his teammates and coach because he wouldnt be getting a game based on his output IMO.....

Listen, i copped a lot of crap in the off-season for suggesting Polson would be high (possibly #1) on the delist list.
He has hardly set the world on fire since.
However, i've seen glimpses in him which i like.

He's just played his 9th game. Data for 9th game hasn't been updated yet
Some stats for people to consider though...
StatPlayer APlayer B
Age on Debut19y 41d  19y 34d
Age on 9th game20y 139d  21y 2d
Highest disposals (in first 8 games)  159
Average dispoals (in first 8 games)  7.632.75
Average tackles (in first 8 games)  2.881.22
Total Scores (in first 8 games)  1 goal 51 goal 2
Total inside 50's (in first 8 games)  114
Total rebound 50's (in first 8 games)  01
Contested:uncontested possession ratio   32:36 (47%)   10:12 (45%)
Draft pick taken5945
-
-
NamePolsonSimpson
8392
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: 2018 Rd 18: Post Game Partying: Carlton vs Gold Coast
Quote from: kruddler – on
Quote from: flyboy77 – on
how often does the winner come from the worst team?

Never....

This question was raised recently.

The answer was twice.

...and not for the past 50 odd years i don't think.

So i researched my own answer to confirm.

It was correct, but longer than i'd anticipated.

The only time a player has won the brownlow in a side that finished bottom is...

1. 1936 - Denis 'Dinny' Ryan (Fitzroy)
2. 1949 - Col Austen* (Hawthorn)

*He tied with Ron Clegg (South Melbourne) who finished 3rd last.

Here's a fun fact though...
Only 1 person has won a brownlow from a team that finished 13th or lower on the ladder. (So starting from 1987 (14 teams) and on).

*tick tock*

*tick tock*

2013 - Gary Ablett - Gold Coast finished 14th.

....so nobody has EVER won a brownlow from a team who finished 15th or lower (So 1991 (15 teams) and on).

P. Cripps - 3 votes.