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Social Club => Blah-Blah Bar => Topic started by: spf on September 23, 2022, 08:19:30 am

Title: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: spf on September 23, 2022, 08:19:30 am
I couldn't see a thread anywhere, so please feel free to merge if there is one.

Russia is mobilising an additional 300,000 reservist (or press ganged) troops for the front in Ukraine. I had a look at a couple of sites online, and it appears the cost of a HiMars system (mobile rocket system) used against Russian forces in the Ukraine is around $78 million USD per system fully loaded. These have been very effective thus far against the invading forces.

I was thinking that assuming the 16 supplied are being increased to around 20, that is around $1.5 billion of investment in that equipment alone. Add in the costs of the latest pledges and the numbers are huge. Considering how unhappy Russian forces are in this campaign, would it not be better to offer them an opportunity to flee Russia and get something out of it? Imagine if let's say around $1.5 billion was put into developing educational offerings and accommodation in the EU for surrendering Russian soldiers, would we start to see whole units just turn up and surrender?

It wouldn't take long before people with few opportunities in Russia (and there are many), would find out about the programme, and head to the front knowing full well they could get out of fighting an unpopular war, and get something for themselves in the future.

$1.5 billion is a lot of investment into educational offerings, and it has the ongoing effect of the participants being anti-Putin, advertising this widely to their populous back home, and they are one day returning home (or migrating) with skills they can use to help their economic situation.

Another 20 HiMars, or many hundreds of thousands of new recruits against both Putin and his cronies forever?
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Lods on September 23, 2022, 08:45:17 am
I couldn't see a thread anywhere, so please feel free to merge if there is one.

Russia is mobilising an additional 300,000 reservist (or press ganged) troops for the front in Ukraine. I had a look at a couple of sites online, and it appears the cost of a HiMars system (mobile rocket system) used against Russian forces in the Ukraine is around $78 million USD per system fully loaded. These have been very effective thus far against the invading forces.

I was thinking that assuming the 16 supplied are being increased to around 20, that is around $1.5 billion of investment in that equipment alone. Add in the costs of the latest pledges and the numbers are huge. Considering how unhappy Russian forces are in this campaign, would it not be better to offer them an opportunity to flee Russia and get something out of it? Imagine if let's say around $1.5 billion was put into developing educational offerings and accommodation in the EU for surrendering Russian soldiers, would we start to see whole units just turn up and surrender?

It wouldn't take long before people with few opportunities in Russia (and there are many), would find out about the programme, and head to the front knowing full well they could get out of fighting an unpopular war, and get something for themselves in the future.

$1.5 billion is a lot of investment into educational offerings, and it has the ongoing effect of the participants being anti-Putin, advertising this widely to their populous back home, and they are one day returning home (or migrating) with skills they can use to help their economic situation.

Another 20 HiMars, or many hundreds of thousands of new recruits against both Putin and his cronies forever?

Most of the discussion on the war has taken place in the General Discussion thread, but maybe it's better to have a distinct thread.

I guess the main problem with that idea is the logistical issues involved.
Russians leaving the front line are heading in the direction of home.
Crossing into Ukraine held territory would be a fairly dangerous and risky proposition.
Letting the participants know of the benefits would also be difficult...there'd be apprehension as to how legitimate such a scheme was.
And probably most importantly it would mean leaving family behind.

The situation is poised at a particularly dangerous point.
A possibly ailing Putin is backed in a corner facing pressure from Ukranian advances, right wing hawks who want him to go a lot harder, and now growing anti-war sentiments amongst the general popualtion.
If he is in fact terminally ill (nothing concrete, just observations he's not well) he becomes more dangerous as he has nothing to lose.
Referendums in the next week in breakaway sections of Ukraine will almost certainly vote for incorporation into Russia.
Attacks on these areas by Ukrainians then become attacks on Russia in Russian eyes.
A declaration of war against Ukraine rather than the limp 'special military' operation may follow.
The threat of the use of a tactical nuclear device becomes an possibility.

Does NATO then get involved with some response?
The problem is that the Russian ground forces have had such difficulty in Ukraine that they would certainly struggle against a full NATO force should they become involved.
The Russian 'hordes' are not going to sweep across Europe, they never were.
That leaves the Russians with a scary option...they wont be able to fight such a war in a conventional manner.

The unknown in a wider conflict is the reaction of countries like China ( I suspect they'd be happy to sit back and pick up the pieces.)

Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: cookie2 on September 23, 2022, 09:03:14 am
Referenda are planned over the next few days to incorporate the mostly Russian speaking areas of the Donbas and around Herson etc into the Russian Federation. This will fundamentally change the picture. I  understand that the Russian troops being mobilised now are mainly ex military who will serve in Russia itself, freeing the regular army to be deployed in Ukraine.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: northernblue on September 23, 2022, 09:38:09 am
The proposal is fine if you are an orphan but if you have family in Russia…
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on September 23, 2022, 10:25:45 am
Referenda are planned over the next few days to incorporate the mostly Russian speaking areas of the Donbas and around Herson etc into the Russian Federation. This will fundamentally change the picture. I  understand that the Russian troops being mobilised now are mainly ex military who will serve in Russia itself, freeing the regular army to be deployed in Ukraine.
I have a friend in Russia and this is how he has described the situation.
He is an engineer but hasn't been asked to join anything.
It's more of a home guard scenario, the propaganda they get fed is Ukraine being aggressive towards Russia and them needing to defend their soil not the other way around.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: northernblue on September 23, 2022, 10:30:34 am
Poor Russia, always the victim…
How to be a despot 101.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on September 23, 2022, 10:51:27 am
Poor Russia, always the victim…
How to be a despot 101.
It's the conditioning and mentality, they still have regular military parades celebrating the 2nd world war win over Germany.
Villages have well kept monuments to fallen war heroes, it's the world against Russia and that's how the oldies still view it.The younger folk are different and don't buy all the propaganda and there is a real divide with lots of Gopniks trying to act like kids from the west, they would be the conscripts dropping their weapons and running home..
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: DJC on September 23, 2022, 11:05:41 am
The BBC News reports varied responses to the thousands of Russian men trying to flee the country to avoid being sent to fight in Ukraine:

Quote
Queues have sprung up along Russia's border as men attempt to leave the country to avoid a military call-up for the war in Ukraine.

President Vladimir Putin announced a partial military mobilisation on Wednesday, which could see 300,000 people summoned to serve in the war.

The Kremlin says reports of fighting-age men fleeing are exaggerated.

But on the border with Georgia, miles-long queues of vehicles have formed including men trying to escape the war.

One man, who did not want to be named, told the BBC's Rayhan Demytrie he had grabbed his passport and headed to the border, without packing anything else, immediately after President' Putin's announcement - because he fell into the group that could potentially be sent to the war.

Some witnesses estimated the queue of cars at the Upper Lars checkpoint to be some 5km (3 miles) long, while another group said it had taken seven hours to get across the border. Video from the scene showed some drivers leaving their cars or trucks temporarily in standstill traffic.

Georgia is one of the few neighbouring countries that Russians can enter without needing to apply for a visa. Finland, which shares a 1,300km (800 mile) border with Russia, does require a visa for travel, and also reported an increase in traffic overnight - but said it was at a manageable level.

Other destinations reachable by air - such as Istanbul, Belgrade or Dubai - have seen ticket prices skyrocket immediately after the military call-up was announced, with some destinations sold out completely. Turkish media have reported a large spike in one-way ticket sales, while remaining flights to non-visa destinations can cost thousands of euros.

Germany's interior minister signalled on Thursday that Russians fleeing the draft would be welcome in her country.

Nancy Faeser said deserters threatened by "severe repression" would receive protection on a case-by-case basis, following security checks. Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and the Czech Republic struck a different tone, saying they would not offer fleeing Russians refuge.

I guess it's understandable that countries like Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and the Czech Republic are fearful of an influx of Russian conscription refugees.  Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland recently banned all Russian tourists on the basis that Russians should not be enjoying democracy and freedom in Europe while Russia attacks those values in Ukraine.

More significant than the mobilisation announced in Putin's decree this week was the indefinite extension of all current military service contracts.  It is thought that Putin was told his entire professional army was going to quit at the end of their contracts to avoid spending winter in trenches being bombarded by HIMARS.

The West's provision of military hardware to Ukraine is a key to the successes of the Ukraine military.  Diverting funds away from that support could tip the balance back to Moscow.  However, I would be very surprised if the expenditure on military hardware isn't closely matched by covert expenditure on destabilising the Russian regime, encouraging deserters, and supporting opposition to Putin's war.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: cookie2 on September 23, 2022, 11:13:45 am
The West's goal is no doubt regime change in Russia.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Lods on September 23, 2022, 11:24:21 am
The West's goal is no doubt regime change in Russia.

That would present a further danger in terms of the transition.
Would the 'football" and the codes be secure during that uncertain period.
Unlikely.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: cookie2 on September 23, 2022, 11:53:30 am
That would present a further danger in terms of the transition.
Would the 'football" and the codes be secure during that uncertain period.
Unlikely.

The world order is changing before our eyes Lods and stakes are high. Some will win some will lose and some will be sacrificed. Very  unpredictable times.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: northernblue on September 23, 2022, 11:55:30 am
The West's goal is no doubt regime change in Russia.

Pre this year it didn’t have to be, Putin has bought that on himself.
It’s almost at the point where the world cannot step back given the wider implications…
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on September 23, 2022, 12:08:22 pm
Pre this year it didn’t have to be, Putin has bought that on himself.
It’s almost at the point where the world cannot step back given the wider implications…
Putin wants to be remembered in history as a war hero like Stalin,he wants a win and his part in Russian history. With his health fecked he wants to do it before the Hellhounds come for him and that makes him dangerous as he has nothing to lose.
Toss of the coin whether he goes nuke or the West via Ukraine offer a deal that allows him to withdraw with some dignity so he puts his toys back in the box.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: cookie2 on September 23, 2022, 12:23:22 pm
EB I'm not sure what Putin will finally settle for but it will certainly include the whole of the Donbas and most of the other areas the Russians have now occupied. Whether he will go for control of the whole of the Black Sea coastal regions including Odessa and into Transnistria is not yet clear. If so, he is probably going to wait out the Autumn rains until the ground freezes into Winter when the heavy equipment can move around more easily.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on September 23, 2022, 04:26:07 pm
EB I'm not sure what Putin will finally settle for but it will certainly include the whole of the Donbas and most of the other areas the Russians have now occupied. Whether he will go for control of the whole of the Black Sea coastal regions including Odessa and into Transnistria is not yet clear. If so, he is probably going to wait out the Autumn rains until the ground freezes into Winter when the heavy equipment can move around more easily.
Probably settle for the Donbas but Ukraine won't be in it imho. Reckon they want all their land back plus a neutral bit inside Russia.
If Sweden and Finland go with NATO then I can see Putin really losing his cool.


Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Baggers on September 23, 2022, 07:48:37 pm
Probably settle for the Donbas but Ukraine won't be in it imho. Reckon they want all their land back plus a neutral bit inside Russia.
If Sweden and Finland go with NATO then I can see Putin really losing his cool.

No matter what Putin settles on there will be underground Ukraine forces that will continually eat away at and undermine any captured cities/towns (no doubt with support from other nations/CIA). Poorly conceived and executed plan from Putin... he thought he'd have all of the Ukraine in weeks. But as others have mentioned, a lunatic with his finger on the button backed into a corner... He's also getting increased pressure at home, to further corner him. Locking up thousands of your own protesting citizens seldom ends well.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: DJC on September 24, 2022, 05:12:31 pm
Putin has to be aware that his forces can’t get a decisive victory over Ukraine’s much smaller military, albeit bolstered by some of the West’s military hardware.  He must be doubly aware that his military would have little chance in a conventional war against the EU let alone the USA or NATO.  Hopefully, he would also be aware that a nuclear strike would result in the obliteration of Russia … and much of the world.

It should also be apparent that time is not on his side.  The longer the conflict persists, the more the disparity between the military capacity of Ukraine and that of Russia will translate into military success for Ukraine.  Despite the effective Russian media control, morale and support for Putin has to take a dive.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: northernblue on September 24, 2022, 05:15:35 pm
Putin has to be aware that his forces can’t get a decisive victory over Ukraine’s much smaller military, albeit bolstered by some of the West’s military hardware.  He must be doubly aware that his military would have little chance in a conventional war against the EU let alone the USA or NATO.  Hopefully, he would also be aware that a nuclear strike would result in the obliteration of Russia … and much of the world.

It should also be apparent that time is not on his side.  The longer the conflict persists, the more the disparity between the military capacity of Ukraine and that of Russia will translate into military success for Ukraine.  Despite the effective Russian media control, morale and support for Putin has to take a dive.

Despots often don’t reason too well though…
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: mateinone on October 03, 2022, 02:29:05 pm
Really really long post here, but because I have a number of close friends in Russia, I can't really post too much publicly in case it in some way it impacts them, but well there is far less chance something here gets read as opposed to on Facebook/Twitter etc.

It doesn't matter whether Putin is deathly ill or not (I don't personally believe that he is), what matters is the fact that if he loses this war outright, he is ousted, exiled, jailed or murdered ('dies peacefully in his sleep').

Someone mentioned that he wants to be remembered like Stalin and this is pretty accurate, or even more so like Peter, Catherine or Vladimir the "Greats". Russia/Ukraine has a long and complicated history, but this history only serves his purpose to be remembered forever. Obviously Kiev was the jewel in the crown of the Kievan Rus for a good few hundred years, but the ruling family were not actually local originally in any case. Kievan Rus was broken in many principalities, Moscow being a minor one amongst them. But the ruling class of Moscow did not represent the general population of Kiev and the areas now known as Ukraine. It does however play hard at the heart of Russians who truly believe Ukraine is "Russian" land and always has been. Winning this territory back for Mother Russia would be wildly popular with the Russian population.

In regards to mobilization, some things that it is not, that the west was buying
- It is not only 300,000 people
- It is not only reservists
- It is not excluding people deemed 'unfit' for work.. As  an example of this, I know of a man in his 40s with 2 young children to care for that presented a certificate that should have excluded him when he was drafted. The response of the recruited was "Do you think I give a f**k about your certificate?"
- They will not spend 3-5 months training to be battle ready for the war, they are mostly cannon fodder.
- Most Russians called up will go and fight in Ukraine, they won't desert.

Their method of rounding up is quite comprehensive, with military surrounding all exits to a town, then the recruiters going in and basically rounding up as many men as they can. All business are being asked to supply a list of all males that work for them and their suitability to perform in the war.


As mentioned, most Russians will NOT desert. They are unhappy to be called up, but see it as a duty they must fulfill if called upon, or see it as a hopeless situation to try and desert. Remember, despite Russia not having a death penalty, it has been made clear to many in the armed forces that they will be shot if they desert or if they retreat without orders.

As for Putin and the nuclear option, well does anyone have the slightest doubt that Hitler would have used a Nuclear weapon, even knowing it would cause a nuclear war that killed everyone? In Putin's eyes, I have little doubt he is seriously considering using a nuclear weapon and even starting a full blown nuclear war, if he can't have what he wants. For him it is seriously a consideration as an option when put up against the option of withdrawing his forces from Ukraine and being seen as weak in the eyes of the Russian public.

Whilst support for the war in Russia is nowhere near the 90%+ levels that a vote would suggest it is, the number is still very high (above 60% for sure and likely above 70%). A lot of Russian people believe the internet is full of misinformation and propaganda from the west aimed at bringing Mighty Russia to it's knees, to subjugate the country through misinformation and dissent. They truly believe what they hear on state broadcast television is much more accurate than what they can get on the internet, it is a form of "Stockholm Syndrome" that large swathes of the country suffer from.

As for regime change ONLY Russians will decide if there will be regime change. There is a very very slight chance the populace breaks out into a revolution, but this is minuscule. The only realistic chance of regime change is if the elite decide on it, but even this is extremely difficult. If you are suspected, you will die through committing suicide from a hospital/apartment/hotel window. The last thing of course, is that Putin is not the most extreme person within the Russian elite. History shows us extreme people often rise to the very top, because others are so fearful of repercussions if they oppose them, so there is a quite reasonable chance that if Putin was ousted/died etc, that a more extreme person could come in and lead the country. The very hated ex president/prime minister is one example of someone who has been strongly advocating for the use of nuclear weapons, this could be to try and fix his public appeal as he is reviled in Russia, but it might just be that he is also a lunatic and would come in and press buttons to get the job done.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Professer E on October 05, 2022, 08:58:53 am
Gees that's just uplifting reading. 
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Thryleon on October 05, 2022, 09:11:45 am
Its war.

Propaganda is king in war.  That was the number one lesson I learnt from studying history.  That, and the victors are always the heroes, and to the defeated goes the title of tyrant or aggressor. 
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Lods on October 05, 2022, 09:30:52 am
Yep
The propoganda machines on both sides are in full swing.
History is written by the winner.

Be careful of anything you read from both sides.

The Ukranians seem to be doing well.
The Russians are even acknowledging this.
Russia is clearly the 'military' aggressor in this conflict.
The devastation in Ukranian cities is indisputable.
Rockets are flying into Ukranian cities, They're not flying into Moscow.
I'd naturally put more faith in the anti-Russian press.

But don't take for gospel everything from the Western side.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Thryleon on October 05, 2022, 09:43:16 am
Yep
The propoganda machines on both sides are in full swing.
History is written by the winner.

Be careful of anything you read from both sides.

The Ukranians seem to be doing well.
The Russians are even acknowledging this.
Russia is clearly the 'military' aggressor in this conflict.
The devastation in Ukranian cities is indisputable.
Rockets are flying into Ukranian cities, They're not flying into Moscow.
I'd naturally put more faith in the anti-Russian press.

But don't take for gospel everything from the Western side.


Yes all of that is true.

The innocent people who live in these places are the only victims too.

Only thing I wonder is how do we arrive at a situation where what was effectively a conflict between two neighbour nations, has somehow impacted everyone across the globe, particularly the day to day costs of living and general economic well being.  The two may not be mutually exclusive, given the last few years fiscal policy was always going to result in the hyperinflated economy we are witnessing today, but it truly is fascinating how our global money markets have gone into meltdown over this.   

Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: mateinone on October 05, 2022, 02:03:02 pm
Russian Street Talk Channel (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4mtXdGgnkc&ab_channel=1420)

This channel is just a 'fun' Russian youtube channel, it has a lot of street talk on it.
The video I have linked is from a regional area and is asking people how they feel about mobilization.
Now looking at the channel they often ask quite controversial questions and it is suprising that they have not been locked up, but what is quite depressing is the responses at times. Sometimes it is uplifting to see that not everyone buys into the propaganda machine, but it is quite clear many do, especially the older generation, but not exclusively.

Of course the west lies as well and also makes mistakes in their analysis of Russia and it's people, I think this is largely because they don't fully understand the Russian  psyche in a lot of situations. Remember Russian people throughout all of their history have never actually been free and made definitive choices on their future. The one exception 'may' have been the election of Yeltsin, but generally speaking things have been either openly under the leaders control (Russian Empire and USSR) or the leaders have tried to pretend Russian's had a choice with recent elections, but of course all negative press is under constant attack and lives are in danger, or the opposition is simply arrested on charges and locked away, thereby forbidding them from running again in an election.

But anyway it is a pretty good channel, it is one of many that I watch when i have a few moments and just looking for something to do.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: mateinone on October 11, 2022, 03:18:04 am
Don't be surprised to see another serious push towards Kiev, probably beginning from Belarus again. Stretching Ukraine's troops as widely and as thinly as possible is very likely one of the aims of the mobilization.

What I struggle with a lot is why the west continues to be bullied by Russia. Western governments have every right to stabilize a country at the request of that countries legitimate government, but because it is against Russia, the countries are very loathe to do so and in the mean time 10s of 1000s are dying. By enforcing a no fly zone, by attacking areas of opposition troops (especially because the sham referendums) they had every opportunity to push Russia completely out of the country and make Russia need to reassess the situation, it would have also sent a strong message to any other countries considering the same. We only need to look back to Kuwait and the swift response there, because of course Iraq is not a nuclear equipped superpower so the decision was easy.

Anyway on a slightly different now, I have done a translation of an excerpt from a memoir written by a Russian soldier who has since defected to France and I think his book is published or being published.

But I thought it is interesting to share, it shows some Russian's really do wonder why they are there, unfortunately asking these questions for most Russian's really is the same as asking if your own parents or children are evil, you simply cannot process this, there must be a better answer.

My translation is a mix of my own and Google's, my Russian is not fantastic and because of how they phrase things, it needed to be paraphrased a little, but the general gist is correct.

Quote from: ZOV - Pavel Filatyev

If we turn to sterotypes then the answer will be that I am a military man, a paratrooper, I am
obliged to follow orders and do not have the right to chicken out and not go to war when it
starts; I am obliged to serve for the good of my country and to protect the people of Russia.
But then common sense begins to argue and ask questions.

"Did Ukraine threaten Russia?"

Everyone says that Ukraine wanted to join NATO, but do we attack every country that wants to join NATO?
Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Poland are already in NATO. Finland is joining NATO now. Our plane was shot down over TUrkey not long ago, but we quickly forgot this, we have a dispute with Japan about the Kuril Islands. Hell the US borders us to the East. But all this for some reason is not a pretext for starting a war. We're not attacking them, or is that just for now?

It turns out that it is not the reason.

"If we had not attacked Ukraine, would they have attacked us?"

Many echo the TV, saying that we launched a preemptive strike, but how can you believe that Ukraine would have attacked Russia, Crimea, if the armed forces of Ukraine could not hold their own borders? They wage this war on the defensive, suffering huge losses. Everyone knows that defensive warfare is easier than attacking. How could this country (Ukraine), which can hardly defend itself, slowly losing its territories, attack? And would it not be easier for our army to strengthen the borders and defenses around Ukraine and, in the even of an attack, meet the enemy on the defensive, break their offensive capabilities and go on the counterattack? Indeed, in this case, our losses would have been much less, and the world community would not be able to accuse Russia of aggression and "condemn" our country as an occupier and invader. It turns out that the Ukraine was going to attack Russia was also a lie?

"Was Ukraine overrun by Nazism and did they infringe on the Russian population (of Ukraine)?"

I talked with people who were in Ukraine before the war, and, oddly enough, no one was able to remember a specific case where someone was infringed upon or offended them for having a Russian surname or for not being able to speak Ukrainian. And some isolated cases of domestic conflicts on ethnic grounds can be found in every country in the world.

"Did we attack to save the DNR and LNR?"

What is the DNR and LNR? Indeed, in fact and legality, these are two regions that were part of Ukraine and then rebelled and decided to become independent. Isn't this the same as if Karelia wanted to join Finland, Smolensk region to Lithuania, Rostov region to Ukraine, Yakutia to USA or Khabarovsk to China, isn't this the same? Why are we defending the LDNR? Did it make the ordinary people in the Donbas feel better? After all, in the Russian Federation we would not have tolerated this, just as we didn't give Chechnya indedependence, paying for it with thousands of lives. Why did we arrange the same without neighbours? But at the same time, the leaders of the LPR and DPR, despite the support of the Russian government were unable to provide their residence with social security and safety, which is why people fled en masse to Russia, Crimea and Ukraine. In conversation with people who fled the war in Donetsk and Luhansk, I did not hear about the cases of Nazism that are shouted about from our media. But all as one spoke about the fact that they fled from the war and that they just want to live and work in peace. If we tried in every possible way to help the people of Donetsk and Luhansk, then why didn't we just limit ourselves to providing Russia passports to everyone? We have plenty of empty land that no human hands have touched, please let them come, live and work with us. Why do we need the territory of a foreign state? What for? Are we short on land? People really believe that all those who wanted to live in Russia have not yet received Russian passports and moved to us?
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: mateinone on October 12, 2022, 07:58:14 pm
In a charming new development, Russian businesses are handing out leaflets to staff on what to do if their city is attacked. When one considers that even the government understand 100% that this is only possible if they use nuclear weapons and in fact if they start a nuclear war (rather than tactical nuclear weapons), then this is more than a little bit of a worry
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: DJC on November 15, 2022, 10:15:02 am
I just came across a photograph of a bog-standard Russian T-62 main battle tank captured by Ukrainian forces.  That's bog-standard as in how it rolled off the assembly line between 1961 and 1975; no upgrades, additional armour or modifications.  The T-62 is roughly the equivalent of the British Chieftain (withdrawn from service in 1995) and the German Leopard 1 (withdrawn from Australian service in 2004) although the Chieftain was a superior tank.

The Russians seem reluctant to deploy their T-90 MBTs in any numbers and their most recent MBT, the T-14, seems to be limited to military parades.  Relying on museum pieces to counter NATO's (not to mention Israel's and Australia's) latest military hardware isn't going to work. 

You can't infer much from a photograph of one captured tank but, coupled with Russian setbacks and their withdrawal from Kherson, it seems that Putin's senseless war may be coming to an end.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Baggers on November 15, 2022, 10:35:58 am
I just came across a photograph of a bog-standard Russian T-62 main battle tank captured by Ukrainian forces.  That's bog-standard as in how it rolled off the assembly line between 1961 and 1975; no upgrades, additional armour or modifications.  The T-62 is roughly the equivalent of the British Chieftain (withdrawn from service in 1995) and the German Leopard 1 (withdrawn from Australian service in 2004) although the Chieftain was a superior tank.

The Russians seem reluctant to deploy their T-90 MBTs in any numbers and their most recent MBT, the T-14, seems to be limited to military parades.  Relying on museum pieces to counter NATO's (not to mention Israel's and Australia's) latest military hardware isn't going to work. 

You can't infer much from a photograph of one captured tank but, coupled with Russian setbacks and their withdrawal from Kherson, it seems that Putin's senseless war may be coming to an end.

I hope you're right, David, though what worries me is that Putin withdraws troops from an area where he intends to deploy a nuclear bomb.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Gointocarlton on November 15, 2022, 11:25:00 am
I hope you're right, David, though what worries me is that Putin withdraws troops from an area where he intends to deploy a nuclear bomb.
Do we really think Putin (or anyone else for that matter) is insane enough to go Nuclear? I personally don't think anyone is, perhaps I'm just naïve.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Lods on November 15, 2022, 11:25:46 am
I hope you're right, David, though what worries me is that Putin withdraws troops from an area where he intends to deploy a nuclear bomb.

Zelensky was in Kherson today...
You would think if Russian intelligence was any good it would have been the perfect time for a strike, (not necesarily nuclear)
It's all a bit bizarre.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: cookie2 on November 15, 2022, 12:20:55 pm
Looks like tentative moves being made towards possibly opening negotiations. Let's hope so.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on November 15, 2022, 01:50:54 pm
Do we really think Putin (or anyone else for that matter) is insane enough to go Nuclear? I personally don't think anyone is, perhaps I'm just naïve.
KJs sister is a lunatic and I reckon Putin and his mate who he handed power too when he was indisposed are also crazy enough.Any peace with Putin will come at a price imho...
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Gointocarlton on November 15, 2022, 07:26:03 pm
Zelensky was in Kherson today...
You would think if Russian intelligence was any good it would have been the perfect time for a strike, (not necesarily nuclear)
It's all a bit bizarre.
I tend to think that countries like Russia and China whilst populous aren't that smart. Lots of huff and puff and intimidation but...
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Gointocarlton on November 15, 2022, 07:32:14 pm
KJs sister is a lunatic and I reckon Putin and his mate who he handed power too when he was indisposed are also crazy enough.Any peace with Putin will come at a price imho...
Putin is gonski on the world stage whether he pulls a nuke out or not. I still dont reckon that anyone on the planet in 2022 or beyond has the balls to go nuclear. IMO If anyone did, they would be obliterated from the map by the Worlds retaliation and everyone (insane or not) knows it.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: DJC on November 15, 2022, 10:20:19 pm
Putin’s absence from the G20 meeting is interesting, and it has nothing to do with Abbott finally making good on his threat to shirtfront Putin.

Putin is concerned about humiliation on the international stage, a coup while he’s out of the country, and/or assassination.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: DJC on November 16, 2022, 09:48:07 am
S-300 missiles have caused deaths in Poland.  Both Russia and Ukraine use S-300 surface to air missiles; Russia’s missile shortage and low air defence requirements mean that they are using S-300 missiles in a surface to surface role. Ukraine uses them against Russian cruise missiles. At this stage, it’s not known whether the missiles that struck Poland were Russian or Ukrainian.  Either way, Poland is on full alert and is consulting with its NATO allies.

This may be a wayward missile or it may be a deliberate strike.  Putin has continually warned that he can expand the conflict in response to the West’s support for Ukraine.  This could be the first shot in an expanded conflict.

Let’s hope not!
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: cookie2 on November 16, 2022, 04:52:43 pm
Stuff up by Ukraine apparently.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on November 16, 2022, 05:36:49 pm
Stuff up by Ukraine apparently.
I believe Ukraine also fired a missile by accident into Romania early on in the war and Romanian jets were scrambled but failed to get off the ground in time and the missile luckily hit nothing but travelled a fair way.
NATO were not that impressed with the lack lustre Romanian response.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: DJC on November 16, 2022, 09:02:08 pm
I understand that the missile’s trajectory indicates that it wasn’t fired from Russia.  In that case, it was fired by Ukraine or by Russian occupying forces.

I wonder if the potential strike zone of a surface to air missile that misses its target is factored in as part of the firing solution.  I suspect not, given the ability of SAMs to follow the target’s changes of course.  It’s probably very fortunate that there haven’t been more casualties in neighbouring countries.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: LP on November 17, 2022, 03:14:08 am
I understand that the missile’s trajectory indicates that it wasn’t fired from Russia.  In that case, it was fired by Ukraine or by Russian occupying forces.

I wonder if the potential strike zone of a surface to air missile that misses its target is factored in as part of the firing solution.  I suspect not, given the ability of SAMs to follow the target’s changes of course.  It’s probably very fortunate that there haven’t been more casualties in neighbouring countries.
They have to be modified to hit ground targets, I believe they self-destruct in air after missing a target.
 
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: DJC on November 17, 2022, 08:52:13 am
They have to be modified to hit ground targets, I believe they self-destruct in air after missing a target.

The S-300 and S-400 missile systems have a secondary ground attack function.  It’s just a matter of entering the target’s co-ordinates into the guidance system.

Apparently there have been many ground impacts from SAMs that missed airborne targets.  Some self-destructed just before ground impact, some rained 2,000kg of debris after self-destructing at altitude and others just fell to earth.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Thryleon on November 17, 2022, 09:47:50 am
Why the media can never fully be trusted (particularly in the context of propaganda and its use to sway the masses across history).

Day before yesterday it was talks of peace process and de-escalation.

Next minute, its missile strikes, wayward rockets hitting targets in Poland on the other side of the country from where the fight was reportedly being waged (and advanced) by Ukrainian forces in Kherson, 1000 kilometres away. 

On the flipside, we have a Ukrainian UAV bombing an oil tank near Moscow which is the Ukraine taking the fight to Moscow reportedly.

I have no vested interest, just observing, and hoping that not too many lives are lost, because ultimately, there are innocent people being killed on both sides of these battles, not to mention the resources that could be better used elsewhere.  Would be nice to be able to believe the reports. 
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: DJC on November 17, 2022, 09:52:04 am
^^
As Hiram W Johnson is reported to have said in 1917, "The first casualty when war comes is truth".
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: LP on November 17, 2022, 02:21:53 pm
The S-300 and S-400 missile systems have a secondary ground attack function.  It’s just a matter of entering the target’s co-ordinates into the guidance system.

Apparently there have been many ground impacts from SAMs that missed airborne targets.  Some self-destructed just before ground impact, some rained 2,000kg of debris after self-destructing at altitude and others just fell to earth.
It is the case that S-300 can be converted, but it's not an inflight scenario for the S-300 they are configured before launch.

I think it's media speculation about the S-300 with the most commonly used ancient variant only having an SAM range of about 30km, there are other long range variants but they are not the commonly built Russian S-300.

As I understand it sometime back the Ukraine started using NATO supplied munitions, having already exhausted it's Russian built stockpile. It's possible Greece or other NATO Allies have supplied Ukraine with Russian S-300s.

I suspect there is a bit of blame shifting going on, the general public have very little chance of knowing the truth, it's all global politics. It may well be this latest event is a false flag operation designed to drag the Ukraine neighbours into the conflict, or it might be painted as false flag to prevent the public from calling for NATO action against Russia having been provoked by Russia.

I will assert the following, the military unequivocally know the answers to these questions, I doubt you could fire a BB in that area without NATO knowing who pulled the trigger, when, where and at whom, and these missile are metres long and weigh tonnes and have no stealth coating! At night they light up like a Roman Candle, in daylight hours they leave a smoke trail that is about as subtle as a fart in a submarine, and that is without considering all the advanced surveillance hardware that is on the ground around Ukraine borders. But how would we know?
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: cookie2 on November 17, 2022, 06:18:11 pm
The collective West is pretty much confirming  that this was a stray S300 missile fired as part of an air defence operation from Ukraine. Ukraine continues to blame the Russians.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Lods on November 17, 2022, 09:43:29 pm
The collective West is pretty much confirming  that this was a stray S300 missile fired as part of an air defence operation from Ukraine. Ukraine continues to blame the Russians.

Ukraine has to tread a bit of a careful path here.
They can't afford the luxury of being anything other than fully transparent.
If mistakes have been made...if accidents have happened, then acknowledge them.
The longer the war goes on the more the chance supporting countries will find it difficult to maintain support as domestic pressures come into play, and they get a bit war weary.
Dishonesty or some perceived distortion of the truth would be very damaging to the Ukraine cause.
They have to be seen to be the 'good guys'.

Russians play the 'long war'.
It's a war of attrition and a wearing down of opposition before they turn the tide.
They let the other side use up their resources and take the short term hits.
It's like a boxer absorbing the punishment before the counter attack.
It's pretty similar to the way the Ukranians played it at the start.
But at the end of the day they do have a lot of combined history despite the differences.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Thryleon on November 18, 2022, 09:34:12 am
Ukraine has to tread a bit of a careful path here.
They can't afford the luxury of being anything other than fully transparent.
If mistakes have been made...if accidents have happened, then acknowledge them.
The longer the war goes on the more the chance supporting countries will find it difficult to maintain support as domestic pressures come into play, and they get a bit war weary.
Dishonesty or some perceived distortion of the truth would be very damaging to the Ukraine cause.
They have to be seen to be the 'good guys'.

Russians play the 'long war'.
It's a war of attrition and a wearing down of opposition before they turn the tide.
They let the other side use up their resources and take the short term hits.
It's like a boxer absorbing the punishment before the counter attack.
It's pretty similar to the way the Ukranians played it at the start.
But at the end of the day they do have a lot of combined history despite the differences.
Yep, imagine that it turns out that this rocket was fired in that direction on purpose?  Even if you were to argue that they were defending the Ukraine from a Russian strike the map doesn't lie and the direction it needed to be fired in to hit Poland makes for a potential deliberate hit at Poland and trying to paint the Russians as the culprits.

Thing is, there is enough of a grey area there that they could always state that the "west" is saying it was Ukrainian in order to not escalate the response on Russia. 

Very thin line to be walking and dangerous territory.  Imagine for a moment the Russians did this on purpose to paint the Ukrainians in a certain light as a false flag.  Wouldn't be the first time something like this happened.

Either way, NATO needs to be careful.  A stray rocket into Poland is nothing to be concerned about in the scheme of things, even if it were the Russians.  That wouldn't lead to good outcomes and only continued fighting which will only lead to more loss of life and a continuation of this conflict.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on November 18, 2022, 03:43:09 pm
Ukraine has to tread a bit of a careful path here.
They can't afford the luxury of being anything other than fully transparent.
If mistakes have been made...if accidents have happened, then acknowledge them.
The longer the war goes on the more the chance supporting countries will find it difficult to maintain support as domestic pressures come into play, and they get a bit war weary.
Dishonesty or some perceived distortion of the truth would be very damaging to the Ukraine cause.
They have to be seen to be the 'good guys'.

Russians play the 'long war'.
It's a war of attrition and a wearing down of opposition before they turn the tide.
They let the other side use up their resources and take the short term hits.
It's like a boxer absorbing the punishment before the counter attack.
It's pretty similar to the way the Ukranians played it at the start.
But at the end of the day they do have a lot of combined history despite the differences.
Always said the way out of this war is to give Putin a win in something, he wants to be a war hero like Stalin or a star keeper of the Iron curtain like Brezhnev who built up the Russian nuke capabilities , Space programs and instigated/presided over the " detente era" with the USA where Russia was seen on par in terms of world importance.
Putin is only infamous for the failed Ukraine war at this stage.....
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: LP on November 18, 2022, 04:31:16 pm
Even if you were to argue that they were defending the Ukraine from a Russian strike the map doesn't lie and the direction it needed to be fired in to hit Poland makes for a potential deliberate hit at Poland and trying to paint the Russians as the culprits.
Firstly, I agree, it's clearly about 400km off course to be part of the expected military operations.

But secondly, you can't be sure who fired it and why, it's just not that simple and there really are far more than two options.

The problem is someone somewhere always profits heavily from war, politically or financially, so you can never assume it was one of the registered combatants.

For example, there would be arms dealers sweating on Ukraine being accepted into NATO, they would get a whole new nation as a customer overnight, a customer they currently cannot deal with above board!

There would be NATO members who do not want Ukraine in NATO, so that funding to existing members is not diminished.

Another extreme example, China or North Korea both benefit greatly from any escalation that keeps NATO and the US tied up in the Russia / Ukraine conflict. It's a version of distracting the police while you get on with a dirty deed! You can gain an advantage more than one way, not just by making yourself stronger, but also by weakening an opponent.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: LP on November 23, 2022, 08:12:54 am
It just shows how poorly informed some of the general public can be, and how we can be at the mercy of governments.

I read today that Putin is making a show of strength on his local media, chest beating about Russia's dominance over the Artic region. But it's a bit odd, because he's basically touting icebreaking capabilities, when there is likely to be hardly any ice to break in coming decades! But I suppose if you are inclined to follow a tyrant then you are likely to think climate change is bogus also!

Or is the information the general public gets in Russia just that poor?

I'd find it hard to believe if not for my first hand experience of the Chinese public media which keeps China's citizens mostly in the dark.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: DJC on December 05, 2022, 11:30:35 am
An interesting analysis of the early stages of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its implications for NATO:

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/preliminary-lessons-conventional-warfighting-russias-invasion-ukraine-february-july-2022

Note that operational security requirements make it testimony rather than an academic study.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: kruddler on December 05, 2022, 07:52:56 pm
https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/russian-president-vladimir-putin-reportedly-falls-down-stairs-soils-himself-amid-growing-concern-about-rapidly-declining-health/news-story/c5272f3615de347f04845e771b0a76bb?amp
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Thryleon on December 05, 2022, 08:17:07 pm
Vertigo?

Who knows.  How believable these reports are anyway.

I maintain we are on a collision course with world war 3, and that most of the attacks we are facing are all in cyber land.

Just got to hope, its not too serious when it all happens in earnest, and my advise to everyone is whilst I wouldnt be doomsday prepping at this stage, ensure you have a grasp on what it takes to grow some food in your back yard just in case.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Lods on December 05, 2022, 08:59:19 pm
I'd take a lot of the Putin health stuff with a grain of salt.
Some of it may be true, but it's just as likely a bit of propaganda.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: cookie2 on December 06, 2022, 10:16:33 am
Some people I know are taking the threat very seriously and have actually stocked up on Iodine tablets. Amazing! Well to me it is.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: LP on December 06, 2022, 01:01:11 pm
Some people I know are taking the threat very seriously and have actually stocked up on Iodine tablets. Amazing! Well to me it is.
Hmm, this isn't radium gas leaking into a basement or caesium in sea water, iodine isn't generally going to help you much beyond giving you some hope for a few hours or days. In reality is a bit of a myth, something of a Cold War era rumour spread to make foot soldiers willing to enter harms way. Take this tablet, you'll be fine!

In fact it's more likely the people who stockpile iodine will end up overdosing on it and harm themselves with iodine poisoning, which ironically leads to thyroid cancer.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Thryleon on December 06, 2022, 02:09:33 pm
I'm not going to paint anyone as a victim, villain, or anything of recourse, but I just want to highlight that things are only getting worse and whilst this might be a fire across the bows to highlight that Russia does in fact have something to lose here, if I were in the Russian's shoes, I would be hesitant to back away from this conflict (win or lose).

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/explosion-at-nuclear-airbase-just-150-miles-from-moscow-opens-stunning-new-phase-of-war/ar-AA14V1gm?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=285d929cc67941b98dbb1b43f184efa2

If I were in their shoes, rightly or wrongly, I would be infuriated at having had my enemies armed by my own enemies, and would likely only escalate my acts, and then galvanise my resolve not to lose this war, "whatever it takes".

That's a very dangerous for everyone mode for the Russians to be in. 

I do empathise with the Ukrainians under fire.  No one wants to be in a war and i wonder what the true motivation for all of this is.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: DJC on December 06, 2022, 03:28:44 pm
I'm not going to paint anyone as a victim, villain, or anything of recourse, but I just want to highlight that things are only getting worse and whilst this might be a fire across the bows to highlight that Russia does in fact have something to lose here, if I were in the Russian's shoes, I would be hesitant to back away from this conflict (win or lose).

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/explosion-at-nuclear-airbase-just-150-miles-from-moscow-opens-stunning-new-phase-of-war/ar-AA14V1gm?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=285d929cc67941b98dbb1b43f184efa2

If I were in their shoes, rightly or wrongly, I would be infuriated at having had my enemies armed by my own enemies, and would likely only escalate my acts, and then galvanise my resolve not to lose this war, "whatever it takes".

That's a very dangerous for everyone mode for the Russians to be in. 

I do empathise with the Ukrainians under fire.  No one wants to be in a war and i wonder what the true motivation for all of this is.

If you were in their shoes Thry, I doubt whether you would have invaded your neighbour's property, even if he had a better pool and veggie garden.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: kruddler on December 06, 2022, 05:39:31 pm
I'd take a lot of the Putin health stuff with a grain of salt.
Some of it may be true, but it's just as likely a bit of propaganda.
Your take was the same as mine, propoganda.

To me it smacks of schoolboy tactics to defame someone you don't like.

IF it were true, how did it get out?
It wouldn't.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Thryleon on December 07, 2022, 10:28:27 am
If you were in their shoes Thry, I doubt whether you would have invaded your neighbour's property, even if he had a better pool and veggie garden.

You are not wrong DJC. 

Id probably grow my own veggies, then offer some up in a trade, along with an offer of a BBQ at my place or bringing some drinks over and having a chill at theirs.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: DJC on December 07, 2022, 10:58:52 am
You are not wrong DJC. 

Id probably grow my own veggies, then offer some up in a trade, along with an offer of a BBQ at my place or bringing some drinks over and having a chill at theirs.

It’s bad luck Putin doesn’t have a similar mindset!
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on December 07, 2022, 03:17:21 pm
Some people I know are taking the threat very seriously and have actually stocked up on Iodine tablets. Amazing! Well to me it is.
People we know from Krasnodar have left and gone on a long holiday to Turkey.....they are conscripting men outside the ages specified and with no military training. The news theme is Ukraine attacking Russia supported by their Western Nato Allies and the population are fed that dribble and a lot are oblivious to the truth and believe the propaganda.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: cookie2 on December 07, 2022, 03:34:31 pm
People we know from Krasnodar have left and gone on a long holiday to Turkey.....they are conscripting men outside the ages specified and with no military training. The news theme is Ukraine attacking Russia supported by their Western Nato Allies and the population are fed that dribble and a lot are oblivious to the truth and believe the propaganda.

Yep, from what I've heard the Ukrainian military casualties are horrendous. Unfortunately no let up yet in sight - tragic.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Gointocarlton on December 07, 2022, 04:10:55 pm
People we know from Krasnodar have left and gone on a long holiday to Turkey.....they are conscripting men outside the ages specified and with no military training. The news theme is Ukraine attacking Russia supported by their Western Nato Allies and the population are fed that dribble and a lot are oblivious to the truth and believe the propaganda.
If you take a moment to stop and truly imagine about what life would like being fed lies, its almost unbelievable and yet...

Its 2022 and to think that some of the largest nations on the planet live in the "dark".
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: LP on December 07, 2022, 05:00:15 pm
The problem is in war you very rarely get the truth from either side, be it our own or the opposition!

If our man Elon Musk had the balls, he could open up something like Starlink making it impossible for anyone like Putin to control the web, but it's a closed system requiring Starlink hardware and encryption. That highlights another problem, it may be that "our side" do not want something like the Starlink genie out of the bottle either! ;)

For example I understand China has already threatened to jam / destroy his satellites if they transmit in Zhongguo, and also place trading constraints in place affecting Tesla.

The very thing that the public perceive as giving ultimate freedom, extreme wealth, is actually making Musk a prisoner to various regimes. You can bet Putin is up to his eyeballs in some of this, and also leveraging influence over the likes of Murdoch and others with influence and power.

In the meantime, Australia keeps on selling off infrastructure and large scale rights to China, Singapore(China), Hancock (USA and China!), Saudi Arabia, etc., etc..
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on December 07, 2022, 05:41:54 pm
If you take a moment to stop and truly imagine about what life would like being fed lies, its almost unbelievable and yet...

Its 2022 and to think that some of the largest nations on the planet live in the "dark".
The young dont believe the propaganda and dont want to fight especially on foreign soil but when you can convince the rest that its Russia under threat and invasion is imminent you can draw on National Pride to bring the nation together and thats what Putin would love to do. He would love to taunt Ukrainian or Nato troops to enter Russian borders to justify his actions and call on his people to defend their country and be the new Stalin and a war hero.
Hopefully the West can dampen Zelensky"s urge for revenge and let Putin perish as a failed aggressor...
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Lods on December 31, 2022, 09:08:25 am
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/russia-says-it-is-extremely-concerned-by-ukrainian-missile-downed-over-belarus/ar-AA15O4wj?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=e1f091fa379b4b36866c3157f1f7fb2a

Quote
MOSCOW (Reuters) - The Kremlin said on Friday it was extremely concerned about a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile that was shot down after flying into the air space of its close ally Belarus on Thursday.

Well here's a tip.
If you're so bloody concerned, stop firing your own missiles into Ukraine. Then they won't need to use their anti-aircaft missiles.

Whatever you might think of the rights or wrongs of the situation, missiles that target the infrastructure that allows folks to keep warm in a freezing winter and disrupts essentials like water supply is appalling.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Professer E on December 31, 2022, 10:17:42 am
Total war Lods, just like 39-45. All citizens and any location is a target.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: LP on December 31, 2022, 10:50:44 am
I suppose that is Russia trying cause ethnic tensions between Ukraine and it's neighbours.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on December 31, 2022, 02:21:16 pm
I suppose that is Russia trying cause ethnic tensions between Ukraine and it's neighbours.
Belarus is a puppet state of Russia, Lukashenko is a lap dog of Putin and if I was Ukraine I'd be happy to send a few missiles in the Belarus direction.
Largest drinking culture I have seen in Belarus, they all love Russian post war culture and their grandma's could drink the boys in bay13 under the table. Every village seems to have it's own brewery and most of their offerings are horrendous...
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: mateinone on January 01, 2023, 06:42:28 pm
Propaganda in Russia is a strong weapon and because it is so successful in Russia,  not all youth are against Putin and the war. It is true the biggest group of detractors are the young, but there are plenty of young who support it as well. Even some very educated Russians I know truly believe (for example) that Poland owes Russia/USSR a debt of gratitude for World War II, which of course is insane. They think this, because they are told from the time they are in school that this is the case and that Poles are russophobes for having any ill feeling or mistrust towards Moscow.

The older generation (even 30+) strongly believe what they watch on tv and those in the 35-50 year age bracket in particular would be some of the most vociferous in their support of Putin and everything Russia 1 news tells them. This is because they genuinely believe that Russia would have disintegrated after the mayhem of the 90s if Putin didn't take over. Of course this ignores the fact that Putin was absolutely criminal in his dealings when working in St Petersburg post communism and strongly contributed to the troubles everyday Russians experienced. They only look at the 1991-1999 period as a horror period that improved once Putin took the helm.

So you see that progression, then everyday for 21 years there has been a tightening on what is reported as Putin builds a cult of personality culture. The internet is almost irrelevant for most Russians, even a large percentage of those that do not believe what is on the tv, still believe the internet if full of western lies aimed to tear the superpower Russia down.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: mateinone on January 01, 2023, 06:48:00 pm
Belarus is a puppet state of Russia, Lukashenko is a lap dog of Putin

As was Ukraine with Yanukovych in control. Unfortunately Ukraine/Belarus and Russia are/were all plutocracies with full blown corruption to a level that is almost impossible to fathom. The powers in Moscow would have been receiving huge kickbacks from the corruption in Kiev and there is little doubt in my mind that is one of the biggest reasons (as well as Putin's desire to build his legacy) for this invasion, as well as the invasion of Crimea and the Luhansk and Donetsk regions in 2014 after the revolution. The revolution would have cost Moscow billions.

Russia would love to either take all of Ukraine back or install another puppet government back in control to keep their coffers kicking over.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on January 01, 2023, 07:19:31 pm
As was Ukraine with Yanukovych in control. Unfortunately Ukraine/Belarus and Russia are/were all plutocracies with full blown corruption to a level that is almost impossible to fathom. The powers in Moscow would have been receiving huge kickbacks from the corruption in Kiev and there is little doubt in my mind that is one of the biggest reasons (as well as Putin's desire to build his legacy) for this invasion, as well as the invasion of Crimea and the Luhansk and Donetsk regions in 2014 after the revolution. The revolution would have cost Moscow billions.

Russia would love to either take all of Ukraine back or install another puppet government back in control to keep their coffers kicking over.
Ukraine are big into exporting Agriculture products, they are a major supplier in the world for a few products in some cases and its worth a lot of money.
Putin though wants more than that and he wants to be a war hero like Stalin or a big name winner like Brezhnev who presided over Cold war Russia which is an era Putin admired. Ukraine has the export resources appeal for the money but also had the advantage of being a non NATO country which made it appear a safer easier target on paper.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: mateinone on January 01, 2023, 07:45:13 pm
Ukraine are big into exporting Agriculture products, they are a major supplier in the world for a few products in some cases and its worth a lot of money.
Putin though wants more than that and he wants to be a war hero like Stalin or a big name winner like Brezhnev who presided over Cold war Russia which is an era Putin admired. Ukraine has the export resources appeal for the money but also had the advantage of being a non NATO country which made it appear a safer easier target on paper.

I agree that there is a legacy part to this invasion and it is a significant part. Russia's greatest ever hero is Peter the Great, Putin references his often and he is universally admired within Russia. There is absolutely no doubt at all that his aim is to be seen in the same light as Peter. Though it would be interesting if he was ever given the title of "great" as Russia already has a Vladimir the Great. It is important though to not discount the money element as it is also extremely significant, whilst average Russians, Ukrainians and Belorussians live poorly, the elite live incredible lives and their wealth is absolutely staggering, there are kickbacks at every single level of government and this needs to be paid for, so money they were bringing in from Ukraine was extremely significant in my opinion
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Thryleon on January 02, 2023, 08:49:37 am
If there is one thing I've learned over the years its dont believe everything you read online.  Its pretty hard to blame anyone for believing the internet is full of lies.  During the pandemic alone if you read everything with healthy skepticism, chances are you listened to what you heard on television as priority and that was better information.

Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Thryleon on January 02, 2023, 08:55:54 am
That being said back to the war for a moment.  I believe it's easy for the Russian people to get behind the war in Ukraine because they will feel its their own land been taken off them since whenever.  I state this because I know of people who would be of the same opinion pretty much in a half a dozen countries with a portion who might consider themselves an independent nation.  It would be viewed the same globally, taking back whats rightfully theirs, irrespective of what the rest of the world thinks about it.  When you recognise this factor its easier to understand why this happens.  That doesn't make it right either.  These mentalities are not about right or wrong.  National identity.  Etc.  They are very much an opinion.  China and Taiwan is the same.  An opinion that one nation is separate to the other.  The fact the world recognises it is largely political and a collection of opinions designed to favour an outcome that isn't always clear to the rest of us.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on January 02, 2023, 09:28:15 am
Ukraine war was sold to the Russian people as Putin coming to the aid of ethnic/pro Russian folk in the border regions who he said were being poorly treated and he was going to their rescue.
Hitler used the same marketing 101 tactics when he invaded Poland and that he was looking after/saving ethnic Germans who were being oppressed..
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Thryleon on January 02, 2023, 10:58:06 am
Ukraine war was sold to the Russian people as Putin coming to the aid of ethnic/pro Russian folk in the border regions who he said were being poorly treated and he was going to their rescue.
Hitler used the same marketing 101 tactics when he invaded Poland and that he was looking after/saving ethnic Germans who were being oppressed..

These all run into a deeper level of ethnic pride and is easy for a nation to get behind until it turns out to be a strategic loser. 

Be it Greece marching onto izmir post world war 1, or if Catalonia broke away from Spain and was then invaded by Spain, there would be enough proponents of ethnic pride that would easily sway the people.

Personally im convinced that just like all these other wars in the region like Syria, Libya etc, where we find out later that the strategic planning of Ukraine's defense and counter offensive has been conducted by third parties and that this has been a war by proxy of other nations and their interests in ensuring Ukraine doesn't slip into Russian hands.  Why is not really a questionfor me, as I dont really have a vested interest.

I'm more curious about what this all means for the future of the region.  I stopped looking at these conflicts in isolation a long time ago because they seem to raise and re raise their heads over and over again and are invariably history repeating.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: mateinone on January 02, 2023, 01:09:52 pm
That being said back to the war for a moment.  I believe it's easy for the Russian people to get behind the war in Ukraine because they will feel its their own land been taken off them since whenever.  I state this because I know of people who would be of the same opinion pretty much in a half a dozen countries with a portion who might consider themselves an independent nation.  It would be viewed the same globally, taking back whats rightfully theirs, irrespective of what the rest of the world thinks about it.  When you recognise this factor its easier to understand why this happens.  That doesn't make it right either.  These mentalities are not about right or wrong.  National identity.  Etc.  They are very much an opinion.  China and Taiwan is the same.  An opinion that one nation is separate to the other.  The fact the world recognises it is largely political and a collection of opinions designed to favour an outcome that isn't always clear to the rest of us.

You are correct that a lot of people consider Ukraine to be Russian land and if you go back to the origins of Russia, Kiev was the 2nd capital (after Novgorod, which was the original capital of Rurik). Of course the Kievan Rus was in fact a different country from what Russia is now and there was no Moscow, but then the 3rd capital of the Kievan Rus was in modern day Romania.
The thing with Russia is, if there is a land they have ever conquered they consider it theirs in perpetuity and it is sold to them that this was stolen from them. Many Russians don't consider that Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia have a right to independence and Russia was robbed of these territories when Gorbachev betrayed the nation. Of course this is all ridiculous, because if they want to go through historical ownership of lands, then all of Eastern Russia should be handed back to the locals such as Dagestan, Circassia, Chechnya etc and of course Kalingrad should not be Russian either.
It really is a completely dystopian world in Russia and yes you are right it is very easy for Russians to get behind whatever the Government tells them, especially when the "scholar" Putin publishes articles such as this
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181

Of course it is a distortion of facts and incomplete, but to the average Russian this is a faithful and complete retelling of history.

 
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: mateinone on January 02, 2023, 01:28:21 pm
Ukraine war was sold to the Russian people as Putin coming to the aid of ethnic/pro Russian folk in the border regions who he said were being poorly treated and he was going to their rescue.
Hitler used the same marketing 101 tactics when he invaded Poland and that he was looking after/saving ethnic Germans who were being oppressed..

Of course he used the same playbook in Sutendland in Czechoslovakia. In Czech these were Austro-Hungarian lands with a large portion in the border regions that spoke German and it was these German speaking people that Hitler wanted to "rescue". Putin of course told lies that Russians could not speak Russian in Ukraine, they were being beaten and murdered just for the use of this language. It is true of course that there was in some areas conflicts over the use of Russian, but it was blown completely out of proportion as is the way with propaganda. It helped the Russian cause as well that Ukraine passed a series of laws that allowed Russia to seize on this "russophobia", I think in hindsight a number of these laws were not very well thought out.

But like all things it is a convenient half truth as Russia has suppressed many languages and cultures over time, including Ukrainians who had their language banned a number of times when under the control of the Russian Empire and again during the USSR. They also suppressed Jews and the Hebrew language, the Tartars, the Caucasians etc etc. Now of course the average Russian knows very little about any of this, because it is not taught in history in the schools, the only thing talked about is the russophobia and how disgusting it is when a culture (change to The Russian Culture) is suppressed. 
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Mav on January 04, 2023, 01:48:48 pm
Why would anyone station troops next to an ammo dump? After the Russians lost somewhere between 63 and 400 troops by doing so, I expected Lavrov to accuse the Ukrainians of war crimes. How dare they bomb military targets? The Russians don’t do that.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: mateinone on January 19, 2023, 05:22:26 am
There has been discussion around Putin being ill and who would be his replacement, one person who without any doubt is trying to muscle into a position to take power is Prighozin

Following is his comments around the closure of Youtube in Russia.
If you look at his comments (the website is in Russian, but the using an index like Yandex Translate will give the most accurate translation), it becomes very obvious that Russia is hurtling back towards the days of the USSR. It was already heading steadily in this direction and whilst it won't have any of the benefits of a communist state, it is going to towards total control and make look to end up blocking the borders to stop people leaving.

https://lenta.ru/news/2023/01/18/prigozhin_yout/

The following is an example of the types of prisoners they are released to fight and  will now be released back into society, because if they agreed to kill Ukrainians they deserve to be free.

https://www.bbc.com/russian/features-64178320

Prighozin is quite possibly the most dangerous man in Russia and if he took over Russia after Putin, that would put him as the most dangerous man in the world. The reports that are coming out of Ukraine of the way he is using the prisoners is an example of just how brutal he is. One example is that they are basically sent forward in numbers to be shot and killed, if they take a backwards step or drop to take cover instead of moving forward, the Wagner mercenaries shoot them as a warning to others. The idea is that buy moving forward they can uncover the positions of the Ukrainian shooting at the "bait".

Now I generally don't have a lot of pity for people like the guy mentioned in the article above as I think he deserves to rot in jail, but no one deserves to be used as human bait, it is just barbaric.




Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Thryleon on January 19, 2023, 11:52:10 am
That is barbaric.

On a seperate but related topic, is there any real benefit in removing the flags of Russian athletes at the Australian Open?

Whilst I understand that we are doing this to show solidarity, I saw a facebook debate recently where some fans of the Russian players brought flags into the stadium and there was a bit of outrage about it.

Sure the opponent to the Russian player was Ukrainian, and Tennis Australia's official stance has been to remove Russian flags next to the players (they do represent themselves after all and not nations in these tournaments) but when I saw the response re fans not showing respect by carrying the Russian flag in support of the Russian opponent.

Now whilst I can appreciate that this is an inflammatory situation, how do we feel about this?  Should people not be able to support a Russian athlete at the Australian open?

I found myself wondering why the backlash.  There will always be the idea that someone is unhappy to see a flag of another nation somewhere, but provided they arent making a political statement with it, or that flag doesnt represent something like the Nazi flag (without having a better example off the top of my head at the minute) shouldnt this be fair play?

Just curious, and checking what people's thought process is here. 
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: DJC on January 19, 2023, 12:43:31 pm
I heard one of the flag wavers on the wireless.  He said that he was opposed to the invasion of Ukraine but waving the Russian flag was meant to represent all of the good things about Russia.  He sounded genuine but what relevance does that have to supporting a tennis player.  I imagine that the Ukrainian player wouldn't have been thrilled to see the invader's flag.

Open Tennis is not a team sport and players' countries of origin aren't really relevant.  I would ban all national flags from the Australian Open and remove all references to players' countries of origin.  The Davis, Hopman and Billie Jean King Cups are a different kettle of worms and supporting national teams is the name of the game.

PS St Kilda changed its colours from red, yellow and black during World War One.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: crashlander on January 19, 2023, 06:05:39 pm
I heard one of the flag wavers on the wireless.  He said that he was opposed to the invasion of Ukraine but waving the Russian flag was meant to represent all of the good things about Russia.  He sounded genuine but what relevance does that have to supporting a tennis player.  I imagine that the Ukrainian player wouldn't have been thrilled to see the invader's flag.

Open Tennis is not a team sport and players' countries of origin aren't really relevant.  I would ban all national flags from the Australian Open and remove all references to players' countries of origin.  The Davis, Hopman and Billie Jean King Cups are a different kettle of worms and supporting national teams is the name of the game.

PS St Kilda changed its colours from red, yellow and black during World War One.
And then Germany changed its colours to black, red and yellow. I always wondered about that.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Mav on January 19, 2023, 06:19:01 pm
Have you noticed the Taiwanese players have been forced to play under the Chinese Taipei banner and the flag is a weird squiggle on a white flag? That’s the flag Taiwan is allowed to compete under at the Olympics to keep China happy.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: mateinone on January 20, 2023, 11:01:32 am
Now whilst I can appreciate that this is an inflammatory situation, how do we feel about this?  Should people not be able to support a Russian athlete at the Australian open?

I found myself wondering why the backlash.  There will always be the idea that someone is unhappy to see a flag of another nation somewhere, but provided they arent making a political statement with it, or that flag doesnt represent something like the Nazi flag (without having a better example off the top of my head at the minute) shouldnt this be fair play?

Just curious, and checking what people's thought process is here. 

Personally I understand it, but I don't really like it either (banning flags).
I think the problem is that either way there is the potential for one of 2 groups to be ostracized and that the Aus Open (and other events) need to decide which group will be impacted.

It is true that Russians should be able to support Russian athletes with pride, they should be able to show pride in their heritage and their homeland without prejudice and supporting the Russian flag is different to supporting the Z symbol or even the Soviet flag which would be inappropriate as it could be used to insinuate that Moscow should control Kiev.

However what is probable is that a lot of people would use these flags as a symbol of aggression as well towards Ukrainian players and this is unacceptable. Already a number of Ukrainians have indicated they didn't even want to face a Russian athlete and this situation is, of course, understandable, but then seeing the flag of the aggressor that is raising their flag above your cities after killing your citizens, is really intolerable.

Perhaps the Australian Open (and other events) could consider are more measured approach and allow the Russian flag to be displayed only in games with Russian competitors and only when a Ukrainian is not one of the players on the court. Whilst Ukrainians would rather see the flag totally banished, I personally in a nation of free speech (with the exception of hate speech etc), would prefer to see this approach, which respects both the feelings of Ukrainian athletes and the rights of the spectators.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: northernblue on January 20, 2023, 02:03:44 pm
Mi1, AO has nothing to do with nationalities, they are all individual athletes and they should be supported and demonised on their merits.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: mateinone on January 20, 2023, 03:04:09 pm
Absolutely the same as in many sports, but in most sports Russian and Belorussian athletes need to play under a neutral flag, which they are doing in all tennis events.
This doesn't stop patriotic supporters displaying flags to support their countrymen and women.
All of which is quite reasonable, but this conflict creates a most unusual circumstance requiring an unusual response.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: kruddler on January 20, 2023, 03:46:18 pm
Pride is a deadly sin.

Pride in ones country is something that can be had without forcing it upon others with the introduction of a flag. This is where the issue is.

Support your player, but just like the US and Old Glory, shoving your national flag in peoples faces constantly will lead to issues and it all stems back to pride.

Read the room at least.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: mateinone on January 20, 2023, 04:20:36 pm
Pride is a deadly sin.

Pride in ones country is something that can be had without forcing it upon others with the introduction of a flag. This is where the issue is.

Support your player, but just like the US and Old Glory, shoving your national flag in peoples faces constantly will lead to issues and it all stems back to pride.

Read the room at least.

So then all flags of all nations should be banned from tennis events around the world?
Of course there are other ways to support your country than raising a flag, but sport is parochial in nature.

This doesn't address whether or not the Russian flag itself should be banned.

I don't have an issue if all flags are banned, I don't even have an issue if they do choose to ban a specific flag and the Russian one at the present time has a cause to be banned because of the angst it can create for certain individuals seeing it waved.

Personally I think all flags of all nature are a bit obnoxious (including the Carlton ones at our games) because when waved about they hinder the views of others.. but people in Australia generally have a right to wave flags at sporting events.


Perhaps Aussie Aussie Aussie ... Oi Oi Oi
Should be banned as well if we are considering obnoxious ways of supporting individuals in events that are not nationality based.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: kruddler on January 20, 2023, 04:30:18 pm
So then all flags of all nations should be banned from tennis events around the world?
Of course there are other ways to support your country than raising a flag, but sport is parochial in nature.

This doesn't address whether or not the Russian flag itself should be banned.

I don't have an issue if all flags are banned, I don't even have an issue if they do choose to ban a specific flag and the Russian one at the present time has a cause to be banned because of the angst it can create for certain individuals seeing it waved.

Personally I think all flags of all nature are a bit obnoxious (including the Carlton ones at our games) because when waved about they hinder the views of others.. but people in Australia generally have a right to wave flags at sporting events.


Perhaps Aussie Aussie Aussie ... Oi Oi Oi
Should be banned as well if we are considering obnoxious ways of supporting individuals in events that are not nationality based.

I've got no problems with banning them all, yes.

Yes it can be good to see your own flag waved in victory, or support, but it also highlights a divide. "THAT person is different."
Without descending into another racism debate, we need to stop highlighting differences and realise we are all humans.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Mav on January 20, 2023, 04:31:45 pm
Perhaps Aussie Aussie Aussie ... Oi Oi Oi
Should be banned as well if we are considering obnoxious ways of supporting individuals in events that are not nationality based.
🙏 🙏 make it so Number One!
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: DJC on January 20, 2023, 04:32:01 pm
So then all flags of all nations should be banned from tennis events around the world?
Of course there are other ways to support your country than raising a flag, but sport is parochial in nature.

This doesn't address whether or not the Russian flag itself should be banned.

I don't have an issue if all flags are banned, I don't even have an issue if they do choose to ban a specific flag and the Russian one at the present time has a cause to be banned because of the angst it can create for certain individuals seeing it waved.

Personally I think all flags of all nature are a bit obnoxious (including the Carlton ones at our games) because when waved about they hinder the views of others.. but people in Australia generally have a right to wave flags at sporting events.


Perhaps Aussie Aussie Aussie ... Oi Oi Oi
Should be banned as well if we are considering obnoxious ways of supporting individuals in events that are not nationality based.

Yes to most of that MIO.

The Australian Open has been used in the past by some folk to promote particular nationalistic, ethnic, religious, political, and/or cultural statements and enmities.  That should be discouraged and it takes banning national flags to do so, well and good.

Other tennis competitions, as I mentioned previously, are national team competitions and I think it's fair enough to allow flags or other symbols at those event, provided that they won't cause offense/distress.

"Aussie Aussie Aussie ... Oi Oi Oi" should definitely be banned at all events.  Surely we can come up with something better ::)

Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Macca37 on January 20, 2023, 07:49:07 pm
Yes to most of that MIO.

The Australian Open has been used in the past by some folk to promote particular nationalistic, ethnic, religious, political, and/or cultural statements and enmities.  That should be discouraged and it takes banning national flags to do so, well and good.

Other tennis competitions, as I mentioned previously, are national team competitions and I think it's fair enough to allow flags or other symbols at those event, provided that they won't cause offense/distress.

"Aussie Aussie Aussie ... Oi Oi Oi" should definitely be banned at all events.  Surely we can come up with something better ::)


I take your point about allowing flags at national team competitions, and the Olympic Games is one example

Flag waving in support of individuals has caused problems for the AO in the past, and I recall some years ago trouble between supporters of individual Croatian and Serbian  players spilling out of the stadium into surrounding areas.

As for "Aussie Aussie Aussie...Oi Oi Oi" don't get me started.  It seems to me that the limited intelligence of the person who coined the saying caused him to run out of ideas after the third "Aussie" .

  I wince every time I hear it.  We present to the world as a nation of bogans.







.

Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: northernblue on January 20, 2023, 07:50:05 pm
its unaustralian to NOT be a bogan...
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Macca37 on January 20, 2023, 08:45:11 pm
Sad but true.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Lods on January 27, 2023, 11:18:26 am
We're in a bit of a lull at the moment.
There's little movement in the front lines, a gain here, a loss  there.
Both sides are hibernating and people are are going about their business with just an occasional thought about the conflict.

But both sides are building...It's going to erupt again big time in the near future.
Dangerous times ahead.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: DJC on January 27, 2023, 12:03:02 pm
We're in a bit of a lull at the moment.
There's little movement in the front lines, a gain here, a loss  there.
Both sides are hibernating and people are are going about their business with just an occasional thought about the conflict.

But both sides are building...It's going to erupt again big time in the near future.
Dangerous times ahead.

Unless the provision of state of the art MBTs gives Ukraine too great an advantage and Russia backs down.

Without going into too much detail, Soviet/Russian tanks used by both sides are line of sight.  The Leopards, Challengers and Abrams are better armoured and have “over the horizon” offensive ability and can destroy enemy armour that’s out of sight.

In the Iraq war, a Challenger 1 destroyed a T-72 with one round at a distance of 4,700m.  The Challenger 2, as gifted to Ukraine, is more lethal than its predecessor.

There is a report of a Ukrainian T-64BV destroying a Russian tank at a range of 10,600m but that was with 20 rounds of indirect fire.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: madbluboy on January 27, 2023, 12:05:47 pm
Yes to most of that MIO.

The Australian Open has been used in the past by some folk to promote particular nationalistic, ethnic, religious, political, and/or cultural statements and enmities.  That should be discouraged and it takes banning national flags to do so, well and good.

Would that include the Aboriginal flag?
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: madbluboy on January 27, 2023, 12:08:41 pm
Unless the provision of state of the art MBTs gives Ukraine too great an advantage and Russia backs down.

Without going into too much detail, Soviet/Russian tanks used by both sides are line of sight.  The Leopards, Challengers and Abrams are better armoured and have “over the horizon” offensive ability and can destroy enemy armour that’s out of sight.

In the Iraq war, a Challenger 1 destroyed a T-72 with one round at a distance of 4,700m.  The Challenger 2, as gifted to Ukraine, is more lethal than its predecessor.

There is a report of a Ukrainian T-64BV destroying a Russian tank at a range of 10,600m but that was with 20 rounds of indirect fire.

Russia isn't backing down. They will nuke before they lose.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: LP on January 27, 2023, 12:16:19 pm
Russia isn't backing down. They will nuke before they lose.
Russia and Russian's pride themselves on being strategic managers, that is why chess is so popular in the soviet block.

If Russia is pressed it will realise the way to end this current battle is to concede enabling them to live to fight another day, which they can do by knocking over the King! If the King is stupid enough to think his followers naivé then he'll be sacrificed to end the conflict.

I greatly doubt anybody in modern politics, with even a miniscule outlook beyond the next 5 minutes or so, would be stupid enough to be the first to press the nuclear button, doing so is a license to let your enemies make you the next Japan! The bigger issue is that a nuclear weapon might fall into the hands of a terrorist as opposed to a state, but even so a terrorist isn't going to get their hands on multiple warheads and be able to store and maintain them as viable for any length of time. The half-life of the fissile material guarantees a device becomes redundant within a few years, at which time they are more dirty bomb than destructive. It's called critical mass for a reason, and it is very critical to be at just the right mass to detonate efficiently, just a few tens of grams too much or two little and the yield falls massively.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: madbluboy on January 27, 2023, 12:23:06 pm
Then why aren't we obliterating them?
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: LP on January 27, 2023, 12:24:21 pm
Then why aren't we obliterating them?
Because most of the people being forced to fight, and by far the biggest allocation of victims of any war, are the innocent!

There are just as many innocent on one side as the other.

There are lessons to be learned from Korea, Vietnam, etc., etc., and the world doesn't want to create a new version of the never ending and unwinnable conflict.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: madbluboy on January 27, 2023, 12:27:07 pm
Because most of the people being forced to fight, and by far the biggest allocation of victims of any war, are the innocent!

There are just as many innocent on one side as the other.

Why isn't anyone helping the Ukraine defend their own country?
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: LP on January 27, 2023, 12:30:21 pm
Why isn't anyone helping the Ukraine defend their own country?
They are but it's not going to be a slaughter, most nations involved in supporting Ukraine have Domestic Laws and Policies that govern how they can become engaged, if a country's military or politicians ignore those rules they would become war criminals in their own home.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: madbluboy on January 27, 2023, 12:33:24 pm
They are but it's not going to be a slaughter, most nations involved in supporting Ukraine have Domestic Laws and Policies that govern how they can become engaged, if a country's military or politicians ignore those rules they would become war criminals in their own home.

It's weird when NATO bombed Belgrade they didn't seem to care about civilians. Wonder what the difference was?
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Lods on January 27, 2023, 12:52:01 pm
I think it's all totally unpredictable and just a mistake or deliberate action away from a debacle.

The next Russian 'wave' won't be based on the theory they can just waltz in and take Kiev.
It will be a more considered approach, based on their previous experience,  and that might mean an initial significant 'softening' up period before engaging ground forces in large numbers.

For the Ukranian's part...they'd love to see the West involved in a direct 'boots on the ground' support. They won't care about it turning into a wider conflict. They would see that as to their advantage. Their actions won't be designed with keeping the West out of it...the opposite will be in their thoughts.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: DJC on January 27, 2023, 03:09:30 pm
Would that include the Aboriginal flag?

Interesting question MBB.  Most of us don't consider the Aboriginal flag to be a national flag but, to be consistent, all flags should be banned, particularly the boxing kangaroo. 

Some flags that no longer represent countries, or never did, are particularly offensive and/or are displayed to foment trouble.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: DJC on January 27, 2023, 03:14:48 pm
Russia isn't backing down. They will nuke before they lose.

Not going to happen.  For a start, what would be the target(s), the country Putin's trying to annexe?  His own people would suffer almost as much as the Ukrainians.

Putin has threatened nuclear retaliation for western assistance of Ukraine and the west has stared him down.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: LP on January 27, 2023, 04:27:49 pm
It's weird when NATO bombed Belgrade they didn't seem to care about civilians. Wonder what the difference was?
I bet they did, and paid a high price politically after the fact whenever civilians are injured. Of course they were trying to eject an occupied force, and that was a lesson learned. Really it just supports my point that when war breaks out innocents get hurt, many of the big brave Generals and Soldiers or in some cases rebels like the KLA, use civilians as human shields!

But I bet they(Nato) would not deal with it the same way today!
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: kruddler on January 27, 2023, 05:47:22 pm
Russia and Russian's pride themselves on being strategic managers, that is why chess is so popular in the soviet block.

If Russia is pressed it will realise the way to end this current battle is to concede enabling them to live to fight another day, which they can do by knocking over the King! If the King is stupid enough to think his followers naivé then he'll be sacrificed to end the conflict.

There are 2 ways to concede or not lose.
1. as you describe.
2. Flip the entire chess board over and claim you never lost.

If anyone is going to go #2, its the nutcases in charge of Russia.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: mateinone on June 24, 2023, 01:35:18 pm
So i wrote a while back that Prigozhin was the most quite possibly the most dangerous man in Russia.
In the last 12 hours, this has come to fruition. He has turned away from Ukraine and started marching towards Moscow.

He has already surrounded the government building in Rostov, he has over 25,000 troops and it appears he is hell bent on forcing Shoigu out. The big question remains on whether his intentions include trying to take the Kremlin, or whether or not he sees himself as being like the Steltsy in the times of the tsars and thinks he is doing this to rid the Kremlin of evil doers poisoning the mind of Putin.

It has not been an uncommon theme in Russia for the elite (and before them the streltsy) to rid Russia of influential people. Peter the great was fearful of the streltsy from the time he witnessed them massacre his uncle and others when he was a child, the elite killed Rasputin etc etc. Prigozhin might actually consider himself as doing a duty for the people of Russia (who LOVE a strong man).

He more likely though is making a serious power play. Moscow has started fortifying itself for an assault, an arrest warrant has been issued for Prigozhin and it is hard to see this ending in any other way than the death of Prigozhin or a civil war of sorts.

What it means for the war in Ukraine is also interesting. If Prigozhin does continue his march on Moscow, you would think that they would need to pull back fire power to address this issue, this could create a real opportunity for Ukraine's counter offense.

Another option (though an unlikely one), is that this is a ruse to sucker Ukraine into overextending, but the US and Ukraine will have visuals on approximately how many troops have left Ukraine and crossed over into Russia.

I know inside Russia they are advising people to stay in their homes and they interrupted normal broadcasting to post urgent messages to citizens.

I don't want Putin to take over Ukraine, but I REALLY don't want Prigozhin to take over Moscow. It is still early in the morning in Russia (Moscow is 7 hours behind us, so 6:30 am), the next 12 hours will tell a lot more about the situation

 
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Lods on June 24, 2023, 04:50:01 pm
Interesting times..

Is this a 'way out'?
Putin can claim to have been given bad information by defence folks and they bear the brunt of what happened.
A risky strategy for Putin, because it shows a weakness and naivety
(not a good thing for a Russian leader,
It also may not stop the fighting because the Ukranians, would keep coming, to take back all lost territory.

or

Is it a case of Prigozhin's group, having served their purpose, now need to be disbanded...and the Wagner leader 'put away'.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on June 24, 2023, 05:00:19 pm
So i wrote a while back that Prigozhin was the most quite possibly the most dangerous man in Russia.
In the last 12 hours, this has come to fruition. He has turned away from Ukraine and started marching towards Moscow.

He has already surrounded the government building in Rostov, he has over 25,000 troops and it appears he is hell bent on forcing Shoigu out. The big question remains on whether his intentions include trying to take the Kremlin, or whether or not he sees himself as being like the Steltsy in the times of the tsars and thinks he is doing this to rid the Kremlin of evil doers poisoning the mind of Putin.

It has not been an uncommon theme in Russia for the elite (and before them the streltsy) to rid Russia of influential people. Peter the great was fearful of the streltsy from the time he witnessed them massacre his uncle and others when he was a child, the elite killed Rasputin etc etc. Prigozhin might actually consider himself as doing a duty for the people of Russia (who LOVE a strong man).

He more likely though is making a serious power play. Moscow has started fortifying itself for an assault, an arrest warrant has been issued for Prigozhin and it is hard to see this ending in any other way than the death of Prigozhin or a civil war of sorts.

What it means for the war in Ukraine is also interesting. If Prigozhin does continue his march on Moscow, you would think that they would need to pull back fire power to address this issue, this could create a real opportunity for Ukraine's counter offense.

Another option (though an unlikely one), is that this is a ruse to sucker Ukraine into overextending, but the US and Ukraine will have visuals on approximately how many troops have left Ukraine and crossed over into Russia.

I know inside Russia they are advising people to stay in their homes and they interrupted normal broadcasting to post urgent messages to citizens.

I don't want Putin to take over Ukraine, but I REALLY don't want Prigozhin to take over Moscow. It is still early in the morning in Russia (Moscow is 7 hours behind us, so 6:30 am), the next 12 hours will tell a lot more about the situation

 
Puttin in hiding according to ABC sources, not looking great for his future and every civil war needs a fall guy.
Be interested to see where the military sit, according to the Wagner crew they are being allowed free passage to Moscow so far with no military action taken against them.
Prigozhin said he wants to take care of business in Moscow then return to the front to defend his country, lot of ego's and wannabe war heroes who want their part of Russian history. Hopefully Zelenksy can take advantage of the situation and shore up the Ukraine forces and kick what ever resistance from Russia still remains in his country and we can all get back to normal and watch the Russians implode.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Gointocarlton on June 24, 2023, 05:07:04 pm
Puttin in hiding according to ABC sources, not looking great for his future and every civil war needs a fall guy.
Be interested to see where the military sit, according to the Wagner crew they are being allowed free passage to Moscow so far with no military action taken against them.
Prigozhin said he wants to take care of business in Moscow then return to the front to defend his country, lot of ego's and wannabe war heroes who want their part of Russian history. Hopefully Zelenksy can take advantage of the situation and shore up the Ukraine forces and kick what ever resistance from Russia still remains in his country and we can all get back to normal and watch the Russians implode.
Putin's day is coming.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: mateinone on June 24, 2023, 05:28:25 pm
One thing to remember is that in the last coup staged when the military locked up Gorbachev, the people of Moscow did come out to the streets and engage in battles against the army. There are a LOT of people who still support Putin and any attempt to try and oust him by force would very likely see average Russian's risk their lives to protest against this.

Putin has (pointedly without actually naming Prigozhin), just given a televised speech declaring the action illegal and vowing revenge on anyone who continues to take part. A lot of people in the normal army are fearful of Wagner, they are easily the most experience Russian fighters (and some of the most experienced fighters in the world) and they are totally ruthless, this could explain why they have not intercepted Wagner. The key will be to see if many join them.

If a few thousand standard Russian troops did join with Wagner, then you can imagine this reaching the streets of moscow.
The other thing against Prigozhin, is he is reviled and feared by many inside the Kremlin. They worry about someone who criticizes to often and so easily and continues to get away with this. It is hard to imagine him getting broad support unless Putin orders them to accept him. The most likely outcome to end this is the arrest or death of Prigozhin still.

There is talk of gains made by Ukraine today, so perhaps they are already taking advantage of this situation.

 
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: mateinone on June 24, 2023, 05:33:48 pm
Interesting times..

Is this a 'way out'?
Putin can claim to have been given bad information by defence folks and they bear the brunt of what happened.
A risky strategy for Putin, because it shows a weakness and naivety
(not a good thing for a Russian leader,
It also may not stop the fighting because the Ukranians, would keep coming, to take back all lost territory.

or

Is it a case of Prigozhin's group, having served their purpose, now need to be disbanded...and the Wagner
leader 'put away'.

There is definitely a case for this giving Putin a "way out", though leaving Ukraine would be unpopular, especially within his inner circle, but if he was to remove Gerasimov and Shoigu , then that takes some pressure off. If he was able to play this as a lie perpetuated on the Russian people by leaders who wanted to take control of Russia, it would give an avenue out, even though it would be transparently ridiculous to the rest of society, Russians are used to buying the lies from their television screens.

I think still more likely Prigozhin loses, but the fact Putin didn't criticize Prigozhin in name, nor the Wagner group seems to suggest he is waiting to see which way the wind blows
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: LP on June 25, 2023, 07:07:35 am
False Flag coup, now Putin has the name of every person not committed to his cause!
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Thryleon on June 25, 2023, 07:38:47 am
It's like everyone has forgotten about the night of the long knives.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Lods on June 25, 2023, 08:10:09 am
It's bizarre....but it is Russia.
And bizarre is pretty much the norm.
So...
Quite possibly a false flag operation.
But Prigozhin is on record as saying the reasons for the Ukraine war were baseless.
He's been branded a traitor by Putin...and seemingly sent into exile.
Where are his troops going.
Back, to base or back to the conflict....or to Belarus to come into Ukraine on another front.

Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: cookie2 on June 25, 2023, 09:34:00 am
Latest I've heard is a deal has been done with Lukashenko as mediator and Wagner troops are turning back to their base. Stand by for further developments I guess.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Gointocarlton on June 25, 2023, 09:37:16 am
Latest I've heard is a deal has been done with Lukashenko as mediator and Wagner troops are turning back to their base. Stand by for further developments I guess.
Yes, morning TV news had that as Breaking News (Wagner turning back).
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: LP on June 25, 2023, 09:57:16 am
Latest I've heard is a deal has been done with Lukashenko as mediator and Wagner troops are turning back to their base. Stand by for further developments I guess.
I suspect plastic extrusion companies have just started working 24x7 making uncomfortably large bags!
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: mateinone on June 25, 2023, 10:11:37 am
It's bizarre....but it is Russia.
And bizarre is pretty much the norm.
So...
Quite possibly a false flag operation.
But Prigozhin is on record as saying the reasons for the Ukraine war were baseless.
He's been branded a traitor by Putin...and seemingly sent into exile.
Where are his troops going.
Back, to base or back to the conflict....or to Belarus to come into Ukraine on another front.



Yes in Russia it is very difficult to determine what is what when it comes to Russia.
This 'intervention' of Lukashenko smells.. Lukashenko has no power in Russia, Prigozhin knows he would be targeted to be killed if everything is as it is being reported. They kill those who disagree with Putin and the regime, this act goes far beyond that.
Is this a way to move Prigozhin and his troops into Belarus to start an offense in northern Ukraine? Does anyone believe Prigozhin is now 'out' of the war?
Is Lukashenko being used as a 'mediator' because the government couldn't be seen to directly negotiate with Prigozhin?
If all is as reported, then Moscow had to have been fearful, because they don't have the troops inside Russia to protect Russia and the convoy was moving fast, but yesterday is a very confusing day and it is really difficult to understand the actual meaning of it all until the next steps.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on June 25, 2023, 02:32:31 pm
Belarus is essentially Russia and Lekashenko is a Putin Puppet, Id be watching what I was drinking if I was Prigozhin....especially if it glows in the dark. Never give a sucker an even break and Putin will be looking for revenge when the time is right.
Wagner were doing all the heavy lifting in Ukraine, who is filling that hole?...more kiddy conscripts and old vets?
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: cookie2 on June 25, 2023, 02:48:35 pm
Prigozhin's card would now be well and truly marked but he's well liked by the Wagner troops apparently,  so it would have to be a fine line re any retribution.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Lods on June 26, 2023, 06:07:24 pm
Where's Wagner?

I've seen Taras Bulba...I don't trust any of them. :D
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Gointocarlton on August 24, 2023, 07:28:23 am
Surprise, surprise, a plane carrying Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin "crashed" killing all on board. I'm sure there'll be a "thorough investigation" into the cause of the "crash".
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: LP on August 24, 2023, 07:55:28 am
Putin's been watching a bit too much of The Blacklist.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: northernblue on August 24, 2023, 08:01:10 am
Surprise, surprise, a plane carrying Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin "crashed" killing all on board. I'm sure there'll be a "thorough investigation" into the cause of the "crash".

Was it here @CSC at the time of the attempted revolution that someone wrote about “ … in news just to hand Prigozhin has been found dead by poisoning, next month…” 🤣
Ohh, Vlad 🤦🏼‍♂️
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: LP on August 24, 2023, 08:09:45 am
(https://thehill.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2017/11/vladmirputin_0.jpg?w=1280)
Said Putin, "Really you're kidding me, I'm shocked at this news of my good friends demise! Workplace safety is a serious issue, there will be a full investigation."

But in a sombre follow up later in the day, Putin reports. "Hopes are low of a outcome, it seems that unfortunately the mechanic who last worked on the plane has taken his own life from the enormous grief over the loss of so many great Russian compatriots!" "I would like to remind our citizens that no matter how bad it seems, there is always someone to talk to!" Please never hesitate to call "FSB Lifeline"

In another extreme event of fate, it seems flight safety investigators failed to make it to the crash site after the steering of the Lada Niva they were driving failed sending them into a roadside tree at extreme high speed. Reports from first witnesses on the scene described the crash as so violent it was like the car exploded, there were no survivors. This even left Putin furious,

"I'm extremely disappointed, it seems this vehicle was only recently serviced but it looks like they used inferior US and German made parts. So, I'm moving to ban these imports in favour of quality the superior but more expensive Chinese made components! I started a privately funded company using my own life savings to import, check and inspect all spare parts are of sufficient quality to save Russian lives, if needed we will funnel all components through this new entity, whatever it takes no matter how much it costs me!"
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: tonyo on August 24, 2023, 08:52:55 am
Anyone who crosses Putin et al generally ends up with a nasty case of death.

Just surprised they didn't use the old 'fell out of a hotel window' method. 

Perhaps they were very keen to demonstrate the lengths they are prepared to go to in order to remind potential opponents of the consequences for backing the other side....
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Thryleon on August 24, 2023, 08:57:56 am
Interesting.  Everyone goes straight to Putin as cause of death, but no one thought to consider that this guy might simply have faked his death to defect.

Who knows, but not many planes crash, so either its a fake crash, or it was shot down.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: DJC on August 24, 2023, 09:09:02 am
Wagner co-founder, commander and Nazi sympathiser, Dmitry Utkin also died in the crash.

I guess that leaves a bunch of murderous, heavily armed mercenaries on the loose in Belarus, Africa and the Middle East.

The status of Wagner supporter and Russian military 2IC, General Sergei Surovikin (aka General Armageddon) has gone from “resting” to “retired”.

Another small gain for Ukraine …
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Gointocarlton on August 24, 2023, 09:11:38 am
Interesting.  Everyone goes straight to Putin as cause of death, but no one thought to consider that this guy might simply have faked his death to defect.

Who knows, but not many planes crash, so either its a fake crash, or it was shot down.
I think we all know with 99.99% certainty which it one it was.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Thryleon on August 24, 2023, 09:27:49 am
We wont even know with certainty if he is even dead!

You think you can trust anything you hear "on the news"?

Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Lods on August 24, 2023, 10:00:34 am
I can't believe folks go straight to the conspiracy theory and blame all sorts of people.
Sometimes these things are just tragic 'accidents' ::)  ::)
Very sad...for any 'innocents' that might have been on board.

My heart bleeds buckets of p*ss at the demise of a murderous, butcher, warlord.
If he is indeed 'demised.'

Strange that the one thing he did right in the whole war, is the one thing that might have finished him...and number 2.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: DJC on August 24, 2023, 10:18:11 am
According to a former British spy, a contract was taken out by Russian oligarchs.

I wonder if what’s left of Wagner will retaliate 🤔

More chaotic times ahead?
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: mateinone on August 24, 2023, 10:23:30 am
The Wagner Telegram channels are reporting that it was the Russian military who shot it down, if they wanted to fake his death it would be far more likely to be written that Ukraine hit it.

This though is a great day for Russia and the world and a day of celebration. This guy needed to be dead, he was one of the most evil people on the planet and his death is not one to be mourned. The world's worst case scenario was that he one day took over from Putin. This would have triggered world war iii

There is absolutely zero doubt in my mind that he is dead and it was not an accident.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Gointocarlton on August 24, 2023, 10:51:17 am
We wont even know with certainty if he is even dead!

You think you can trust anything you hear "on the news"?


Ill bet both my family jewels that:
a. He is very dead.
b. Putin has his fingerprints all over it.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: LP on August 24, 2023, 10:51:46 am
Interesting.  Everyone goes straight to Putin as cause of death, but no one thought to consider that this guy might simply have faked his death to defect.

Who knows, but not many planes crash, so either its a fake crash, or it was shot down.
Aaah the old exploding private jet, even more of The Blacklist!
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Gointocarlton on August 24, 2023, 10:52:28 am
The Wagner Telegram channels are reporting that it was the Russian military who shot it down, if they wanted to fake his death it would be far more likely to be written that Ukraine hit it.

This though is a great day for Russia and the world and a day of celebration. This guy needed to be dead, he was one of the most evil people on the planet and his death is not one to be mourned. The world's worst case scenario was that he one day took over from Putin. This would have triggered world war iii

There is absolutely zero doubt in my mind that he is dead and it was not an accident.
Pro Russian media is tweeting that very thing, that the Ukraine was responsible for shooting the plane down.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: LP on August 24, 2023, 10:53:02 am
The Wagner Telegram channels are reporting that it was the Russian military who shot it down, if they wanted to fake his death it would be far more likely to be written that Ukraine hit it.
Mmmm a False Flag, straight to Facebook for that one! ;D

Can someone please check with Trump? :o

I'm sensing a new Tom Lehrer song!
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: mateinone on August 24, 2023, 11:31:22 am
Pro Russian media is tweeting that very thing, that the Ukraine was responsible for shooting the plane down.

Yes the thing about Russian assassinations and Russian media response to them, is that in fact they are not at all trying to cover things up, look at the Skripal poisonings. There were many ways to attempt to kill Skripal, but to use a specifically known russian poison was not at all just an "error", the Russian government uses their assassinations as a type of psychological warfare, all Russians know that billionaires are not committing suicide by jumping out of hotel or hospital windows, the government is saying in not very hidden terms, we will publicly kill you, the media will push our ridiculous line and no one at all will suffer any consequences, and it works.

Of course there is a small chance Prighozhin could have faked his death, he has the funds to do so... but this killing is 100% in line with how the Russians would take someone out... Claim their was a plane crash (or Ukraine shot it down) directly 2 months  (to the day!) after the coup... No one in Russia our outside Russia will believe it, but everyone will say... "of course, what other outcome can their be if you challenge Putin?"

The Russian media response to the Skripal poisonings btw, was to get the perpetrators out in public and interview them on Russia One channel, talking about the beautiful chapels in Salisbury Cathedral, which of course it is laughable that 2 Russian GRU members of an strongly Orthodox country were traveling to the UK because they needed to see  an Anglican Cathedral, but this is the point.... The more absurd the story, the more it is a middle finger to the west and a warning to the people of Russia.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: LP on August 24, 2023, 12:40:12 pm
Meantime, in the woods nearby.

Ooops I did it again!
(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTIbHSUzBMQLhv4Gb9TysLvcxnxktO39_Gc4w&usqp=CAU)

Really, I was just pointing to the plane and it went off!
(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSRucq2FEx8NSBSbjAmzhRViRph4JyCrZ4A3w&usqp=CAU)

I thought it was a quail, my eyes aren't what they use to be!
(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRVOf71hQ1xxQ9HZEqHmKPYNNU1GeoJRCNBXA&usqp=CAU)
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: dodge on August 24, 2023, 01:17:43 pm
Mmmm a False Flag, straight to Facebook for that one! ;D

Can someone please check with Trump? :o

I'm sensing a new Tom Lehrer song!
Maybe Bo Burnham these days (poor man Lehrer).  Lehrer has probably finished his song writing days - he'd be in his 90s.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: LP on August 24, 2023, 03:11:37 pm
Maybe Bo Burnham these days (poor man Lehrer).  Lehrer has probably finished his song writing days - he'd be in his 90s.
If only Bill Hicks were still alive to poke fun at this, ...................... and Trump!
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: LP on August 24, 2023, 03:27:24 pm

I've got an idea, let's have a toast!
(https://www.carltonsc.com/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=6134.0;attach=1417)
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on August 24, 2023, 03:45:09 pm
I would want to see the body of Prighozhin and have it properly identified before I was jumping for joy, the former hotdog salesman doesnt strike me as a fool who would lower his guard and jump on any old plane and with people he didnt know and trust. I know he had used that plane before but I would have thought he would want to avoid any routine travel stuff and be more random in how and where he went.
Been reports there have been several people changing their name to his as well in attempts to thwart any attempts to kill the real Prighozhin. Putin would be real happy that the Western world think he has his mojo back and is still capable of running Russia with his usual grace and charm. Hopefully the Wagner No 2  Dmitry Utkin was on that plane too as he is/was a complete nutcase and I wouldnt want that Hitler loving SS obsessed maniac running Wagner because it could be worse than Prighozhin.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: mateinone on August 24, 2023, 04:56:01 pm
Utkin reported to be on the plane also.

There are currently a lot of reports in Russia that he faked his death and now Wagner will plan to march on moscow etc.
All of this is incredibly unlikely. He could have for sure staged his death or "avoided a bullet", but i am still banking on the fact i believe he is dead.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: DJC on August 24, 2023, 05:15:41 pm
Orchestrating a plane crash would be an extremely complex and convoluted way to fake one’s death, even for Prighozhin.

And then there’s DNA analysis of human remains, regardless of how fragmentary.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Lods on August 24, 2023, 05:20:11 pm
Yep I can't see it either
If he did stage the whole thing it would be hard for him to reappear.
The Russian people have been sold the fact he's dead.
Putin is enhanced... "You dont mess with the Pute"
They'd hardly flock to Prigo if he was to suddenly 'come back from the dead'

If he's done it to avoid assassination...good luck with that one.
He's forfeited all he had...including his little army.

Nope. I think he's a goner
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: kruddler on August 24, 2023, 06:51:48 pm
Interesting.  Everyone goes straight to Putin as cause of death, but no one thought to consider that this guy might simply have faked his death to defect.

Who knows, but not many planes crash, so either its a fake crash, or it was shot down.

People are so ready to believe this when Russia is involved.

I talk about the same thing with America and i'm coco bananas.

Just let that sink in and maybe reevaluate.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: mateinone on August 24, 2023, 07:51:19 pm
Another Telegram post by a Wagner member warned another coup could be on the horizon.

“There are rumours about the death of the head of Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin,” the post read.

“We directly say that we suspect the Kremlin officials led by Putin of an attempt to kill him.

“If the information about Prigozhin’s death is confirmed, we will organise a second March of Justice on Moscow! He’d better be alive, it’s in your own interests.”
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Thryleon on August 24, 2023, 09:48:31 pm
People are so ready to believe this when Russia is involved.

I talk about the same thing with America and i'm coco bananas.

Just let that sink in and maybe reevaluate.

It hasn't escaped me that all this could be western propaganda and we don't have a handle about what this war is all about.

Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Lods on August 24, 2023, 10:45:08 pm
Apparently it's a bit like Spartacus.

As EB mentioned earlier there are reports that lots of folk have changed their name to Prigozhin to protect him from assasination or at least cause confusion.
So the fact that his name shows up on a plane's manifest is not necessarily firm proof.

Western propoganda?
I'm not sure how it benefits the West or Ukraine to falsely claim he's been taken out.
The big winner if he's gone is Putin.
I haven't seen anything official from Kremlin sources...
There is some speculation from some Russian sources, but even Wagner can't seem to make up their minds or know for sure.

It seemed bizarre when he called off his coup.
To resurface after this would be even more bizarre.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: DJC on August 24, 2023, 11:20:50 pm
It hasn't escaped me that all this could be western propaganda and we don't have a handle about what this war is all about.

Since when does the Russian media promote western propaganda?

And the Russian film footage of the jet plummeting to earth was pretty convincing.

More to the point, what would the west gain from making this up?

The Ukraine War is one of the most analysed conflicts ever and all perspectives are readily available.

Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on August 24, 2023, 11:39:01 pm
Im a bit confused by the Wagner No 1 and No 2 being on the same plane, I would have thought they would be smarter than that?
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Thryleon on August 24, 2023, 11:44:10 pm
Since when does the Russian media promote western propaganda?

And the Russian film footage of the jet plummeting to earth was pretty convincing.

More to the point, what would the west gain from making this up?

The Ukraine War is one of the most analysed conflicts ever and all perspectives are readily available.



I think you misunderstood me.

We know these two are at war.

We know that Russia is the baddie, Ukraine the goody.

At least this is what we are told.

It's over simplified.  This latest episode is simply more of the same.  What is there to believe here?  Putin is bad and staged a mission against Ukraine.  Ok, that happened but why is what I dont buy.

Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, strange explosions in Lebanon, the Crimean battles.  New resources found in the Mediterranean causing more political chest thumping.  Trump Biden rumour about usa politics being influenced by the Russians.

Conspiracy or just a strange string of loose connections with putin the culprit?
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: DJC on August 25, 2023, 12:00:47 am
I think you misunderstood me.

We know these two are at war.

We know that Russia is the baddie, Ukraine the goody.

At least this is what we are told.

It's over simplified.  This latest episode is simply more of the same.  What is there to believe here?  Putin is bad and staged a mission against Ukraine.  Ok, that happened but why is what I dont buy.

Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, strange explosions in Lebanon, the Crimean battles.  New resources found in the Mediterranean causing more political chest thumping.  Trump Biden rumour about usa politics being influenced by the Russians.

Conspiracy or just a strange string of loose connections with putin the culprit?

That's the thing Thry ... it's not what you're told, it's what can be gleaned from history and from a range of aligned and non-aligned sources.  Take most of the media commentary with a grain of salt but don't dismiss the first hand accounts.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: kruddler on August 25, 2023, 06:42:46 am
That's the thing Thry ... it's not what you're told, it's what can be gleaned from history and from a range of aligned and non-aligned sources.  Take most of the media commentary with a grain of salt but don't dismiss the first hand accounts.

I dont want to start an old debate.
But read what you wrote.
Then think about about the first 24 hours of 9/11.

Every first hand account aligned, media even reported it that way. Within 24 hours every media outlet flipped it on its head and sang from the opposite hymn book.

Russia, people believe the conspiracy first.
USA, if you believe conspiracy, you're a crack pot.
Same same but different.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Thryleon on August 25, 2023, 06:52:19 am
That's the thing Thry ... it's not what you're told, it's what can be gleaned from history and from a range of aligned and non-aligned sources.  Take most of the media commentary with a grain of salt but don't dismiss the first hand accounts.

History has shown that the first casualty of war is the innocent.

The second the truth.

The third, the victor is never the bad guy.

The fourth, our side was never the bad guy regardless of which side you are on.

Interesting perspectives.  Apply it to Russia.  Tell me, what is this conflict all about?
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Gointocarlton on August 25, 2023, 07:00:23 am
History has shown that the first casualty of war is the innocent.

The second the truth.

The third, the victor is never the bad guy.

The fourth, our side was never the bad guy regardless of which side you are on.

Interesting perspectives.  Apply it to Russia.  Tell me, what is this conflict all about?
To me the conflict is about a narcissistic, ruthless, murdering,  nut job who invaded a country for no other reasons than  because he can and that no-one on the planet will a do a damn thing about it.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Lods on August 25, 2023, 07:45:29 am
Vlad has sent his condolences to Prigozhins family.
So that probably rules out Western propoganda

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/putin-sends-condolences-to-wagner-chief-prigozhin-s-family-after-crash/ar-AA1fJnGb

If this is a con and a trick, its a Russian con.

"I've always liked Yevgeny. His family needs to understand it was only business" said Don Vlado Putani.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: mateinone on August 27, 2023, 11:56:39 am
i seriously always have to wonder how much knowledge people have of Russia and it's history. if anyone is asking why Russian media and politicians are less trustworthy than western media and politicians, the debate might as well end there, but anyway.... Political assassinations are and always have been a part of the Russian way of doing things, before the death penalty was abolished you only needed to lock someone up, interrogate them and force them to either confess and save their family (which often during the USSR was a lie as the family was usually purged later) or hold out and know you family would suffer the same fate.
Now with no death penalty it is still state sanctioned killings but in a different manner.

Russia has always used lying as an official means of bending the public will, there was a small period from Glasnost where there was more openness, not the same level of openness as you have in the west, where opposition media can openly criticize you and bust open your lies, but a degree... even then it was fraught with danger, especially once Putin come into power. Take a look at this list and tell me of another place on the planet where so many journalists were killed

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_journalists_killed_in_Russia

Russia sees it's strength lies in controlling the narrative and not allowing an alternative version. It is why Russians are hesitant (even in personal calls online) to be critical of anything the government says or does. Nobody would suggest the western media is the beacon of truth, nor their governments, but it is incredibly more transparent than Russia.

The sad part is some of this propaganda even works on those who should know better. I had an argument with a Russian (who still lives in Russia) after they told me that there are hardly any Ukrainians left fighting for Ukraine and 90% of the fighters know are foreigners. Now this lie has been pushed over and over again on Russia One, especially by the likes of Vladimir Solovyov, but i never thought a sensible person could believe this... It just shows that pushing a lie over and over and over again works and it is the Russian lesson they learned directly from Goebbels.

A even earlier example about how little the truth matters can be seen below

Quote from: Martin Latsis - Red Terror Newspaper
We are not waging war against individual persons. We are exterminating the bourgeoisie as a class. During the investigation, do not look for evidence that the accused acted in deed or word against Soviet power. The first questions that you ought to put are: To what class does he belong? What is his origin? What is his education or profession? And it is these questions that ought to determine the fate of the accused. In this lies the significance and essence of the Red Terror

Russia doesn't care about truth, it cares about obedience.

As for whether Russia is the "baddie" in the war in Ukraine.. Honestly you don't need to look at all at the media for this. It is obvious to anyone with a clear conscious and any knowledge of history as to what is right and what is wrong, as well as for the reasons that Russia invaded..

If you are sucked in by the claim about NATO expansion being the reason, then why isn't there an attack on Finland going on right now?
if you are sucked in by Russia believing in an areas right to self determination, the same claim it used to invade Georgia over South Ossetia and Abkhazia, then where are the right of the Mari El people? The rights of the Dagestani and Chechnyan people to self determination? It doesn't exist because it isn't real. Russia does not care one iota about it's people.

If you wanted to get an idea about real reasons you have to consider the history of Russian leaders and how Putin styles himself as a Tsar, including his own references to Russia's arguably greatest Tsar Peter I. The other thing is understanding that Ukraine is as big of a kleptocracy as Russia is and any threats to break up this kleptocracy was always going to be met by a lot of anger inside the circle of Russia's biggest oligarchs. If Ukraine was to become part of the EU, it has to make sweeping reforms, this is likely to see very powerful Russian (and Ukrainian) men lose a lot of power and wealth which Ukraine generates. This outcome was totally unacceptable to a lot of people.

If all of this is legitimate, then why was it the Russian Army and Wagner that ran the armed insurrections in the east (without wearing Russian uniforms) and why did they do the same in Crimea, originally arriving overnight in their "little green men" uniforms?

People in their desire to want to prove the west is full of lies, try and back up the likes of Russia as being "no worse" and it is just patently untrue. I happen to love the country of Russia, like a lot of Eastern Europe, it has a very fascinating history, it also has a beautiful (though very difficult) language and some of the richest literature in the world, but that doesn't change that the government is incredibly corrupt and that this corruption is absolutely clear at all levels of government and within the judicial system also, and that the western sphere doesn't come remotely close to matching that
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: mateinone on September 14, 2023, 09:22:10 pm
Just a quick video on the role propaganda plays within the Russian society i will share a video and also a channel.

The first video is from a town near Smolensk and it is inside a Kindergarten. It is specifically the 90 second song i am showing, which really appears to me as though it is from a dystopian world. The song starts at the 35 second mark of the video

https://youtu.be/48DaLYiO-yk?si=gwi9BIWz_WrFYVEC&t=35

I wanted to get a gauge if this is considered "normal" inside Russia, so i asked 3 friends (2 still in Russia and one who left last year) whether this "normal".

The responses from all 3 indicated everything is normal. i should point out though that this is a celebration day (like ANZAC day) which is basically "Defender of the Fatherland Day". I pointed out it is still quite dystopian indoctrination to me, but they disagreed and thought it was just pride in their country.


The next is just one of the media watch sites i look at for some of the recent propaganda.

Russian Media Watch (https://www.youtube.com/@russianmediamonitor)

There are many other options, but you want to ensure you are getting good translations as well. This just gives an idea of what is pushed consistently to the home audience on the most famous and popular channels inside Russia.

All of this is just again to give an insight into the values of Russian people and the environment they are surrounded by. This isn't me disparaging Russian people, in fact many are very kind and warm people, but it is quite fair to say "Russian traditional values" are very different to ours and this is very important in understanding the reasons Russians react to certain news and events.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Thryleon on September 14, 2023, 09:23:32 pm
Is putin still sick and dying?

Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: mateinone on September 14, 2023, 09:29:21 pm
Is putin still sick and dying?



This is funny, i spoke about that with a friend a long time ago and we discussed how it served Russia's interest for the west to think he was so ill that they could outlast him.. In Russia there is absolutely NOTHING on their televisions ever suggesting he has any health issues and i think personally it was a lot of wishful thinking by the west and disinformation.

I believe the Russian's very much wanted the outside world to believe he was sick and the West bought it hook, line and sinker.. we will see of course, but that has been my thoughts on it
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Thryleon on September 14, 2023, 09:45:46 pm
This is funny, i spoke about that with a friend a long time ago and we discussed how it served Russia's interest for the west to think he was so ill that they could outlast him.. In Russia there is absolutely NOTHING on their televisions ever suggesting he has any health issues and i think personally it was a lot of wishful thinking by the west and disinformation.

I believe the Russian's very much wanted the outside world to believe he was sick and the West bought it hook, line and sinker.. we will see of course, but that has been my thoughts on it

Thats one way to view it.

Personally it was just the same propaganda in reverse, but I think it's more about morale at the front lines than anything else.

The funny thing about these things is that they could be true.

If you read the news on the Microsoft pages every day, the Ukraine troops are inflicting heavy losses on the Russians almost daily, and the the Russian troops are bumbling fools who are poorly coordinated and don't want to be there. 

Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: mateinone on September 14, 2023, 10:02:00 pm
I think both sides are suffering heavy losses daily, but yes i do believe that morale is lower on the Russian side. The reason isn't that surprising when you mobilize people against their will. They are very patriotic and there are a lot that actively would join themselves, but the number of mobilized is quite high now. As for whether Russians are bumbling fools.. no i don't think this is true, but they are using archaic methods and they have comfortably been outperformed by Ukraine based on the comparative numbers and equipment of the 2 sides.

There is propaganda in the west it is clear, but as i said in an earlier post, it is not comparative to the propaganda within Russia, which always happens when there is only one story told and publicly disagreeing with that narrative can land you a lengthy jail term.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Thryleon on September 14, 2023, 10:19:06 pm
I want to be clear Mio.

I dont want to create an equivalence between propaganda.

All I'm saying is that when propaganda begins, believe nothing you've heard and half of what you see.

Generally speaking im not invested either way, but am keen to learn about the outcome and motivation.  My only concern is whether or not the conflict escalates.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Lods on September 15, 2023, 06:25:48 am
Is putin still sick and dying?

Already dead, according to a family source.

https://www.upi.com/Archives/2001/02/23/Putin-a-vampire-wife-says/4839982904400/
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: DJC on September 15, 2023, 09:55:58 am
Already dead, according to a family source.

https://www.upi.com/Archives/2001/02/23/Putin-a-vampire-wife-says/4839982904400/

Isn’t that undead?
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Lods on September 15, 2023, 10:35:10 am
Isn’t that undead?

An intereresting question.

I use as my source on all things Vampiric... Kim Marie Ostrowski- Author of the Vampire 'Bible'

Kim Marie writes..
Quote
Are vampires dead or alive?
Considering they are referred to in 2 ways.

as the undead
as the Living Dead
and that most of the time in the mythology, a person usually has to die to become one.

usually the person is either drained and given the blood of the vampire, or died with Vampire blood in them. (there are also the odd stories where they just need to be bitten which for me is just up in the air of which)

so therefore they are dead, but a ‘living’ corpse.

(unlike a Zombie which is all decaying or rotting dead but somehow reanimated for some reason but still stays dead, just with the most basic instinct, to EAT.)

BTW has anyone else noticed the uncanny resemblance between Putin and the Mona Lisa....tell me the guy hasn't been around for centuries.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: kruddler on September 15, 2023, 02:19:39 pm
BTW has anyone else noticed the uncanny resemblance between Putin and the Mona Lisa....tell me the guy hasn't been around for centuries.

Perhaps all the above.

He is dead, he's not a vampire, he doesn't age because its not him. Its a double...and another double....

Supposedly Saddam Hussein had 5 or 6 doubles that used to get around.
Who knows anymore.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: mateinone on September 15, 2023, 03:09:47 pm
BTW has anyone else noticed the uncanny resemblance between Putin and the Mona Lisa....tell me the guy hasn't been around for centuries.

if you want further proof you need to look at the paintings of Jan van Eyck  !!!
Do a google search on Jan van Eyck and Putin, this is seriously uncanny!!
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: DJC on September 15, 2023, 03:23:18 pm
if you want further proof you need to look at the paintings of Jan van Eyck  !!!
Do a google search on Jan van Eyck and Putin, this is seriously uncanny!!

And that led to the fake news story of the National Gallery removing a van Eyck portrait because it resembled Putin  ::)
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on September 15, 2023, 04:28:24 pm
Russians are going to become a colony of China, they just dont it....China sign off on most of Putins activities and the interesting aspect now is the proposed deals between Putin and Nth Korea. Put basically the Nth Korean's are starving and need food and oil plus international currency and Putin is running out of weaponry, spares and artillery shells, rockets etc to continue with his barrage into Ukraine.
Nth Korea have the same old old Russian weaponry and churn out a lot of munitions via their sweatshop factories and would be able to supply Putin and keep the war going in return for Food, Oil and money which Russia have plenty of.
China would have to sign off on such a deal given both countries are beholding to them and they dont do anything without weighing up the pros and cons for their political aspirations. Russia have traditionally had no time for Nth Korea but in recent times have been forced into following what China's foreign policy dictates.
A well fed Nth Korea wouldnt be affected so much by sanctions anymore that have helped put the brakes on and a nutter like KimJ might be tempted to try his luck by obtaining better long range ICBMs and nuke subs.
Id be stopping that little liaison developing and involving the Chinese who I am sure would have the same concerns about KimJ straying from their game plan and doing his own thing fuelled by a desperate Putin.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: LP on October 10, 2023, 10:44:32 am
I was just listening to a security expert / political strategist who was adamant Russia is behind this latest breakout of fighting in Israel. The hypothesis seems to be rather than take the expensive options to scale up fighting on that front, they have chosen to weaken Ukraine by acting to distract / divide Allied support by given the Allies another war to fight.

He suspects there could be further outbreaks of regional fighting to come, and he warned of terrorist attacks on domestic soil, or potentially false flag operations, financed / enabled by Russia to weaken and distract support for Ukraine. Ukraine won't get resources from Allies if the Allies are given issues to deal with closer to home.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Thryleon on October 10, 2023, 11:04:55 am
I was just listening to a security expert / political strategist who was adamant Russia is behind this latest breakout of fighting in Israel. The hypothesis seems to be rather than take the expensive options to scale up fighting on that front, they have chosen to weaken Ukraine by acting to distract / divide Allied support by given the Allies another war to fight.

He suspects there could be further outbreaks of regional fighting to come, and he warned of terrorist attacks on domestic soil, or potentially false flag operations, financed / enabled by Russia to weaken and distract support for Ukraine. Ukraine won't get resources from Allies if the Allies are given issues to deal with closer to home.

Ive heard its Iran behind it.

The world is staring into the abyss right now. 

The strategy seems to be make the USA fight in as many theatres as possible.

Attributing this to one player is fraught with danger.  You have China and Taiwan, Iran and its interests, Ukraine and Russia, and the ascendency of the BRICS. 

Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: LP on October 10, 2023, 11:34:35 am
Ive heard its Iran behind it.
Yes, the assertion was Russia was doing this indirectly to keep plausible deniability, Iran was the proxy.

Interesting, I thought China might be behind this as well to distract from it's other activities, but apparently the Israel outbreak is not in China's interest due to the way it's finance and investment in foreign entities works, China would be shooting itself in the financial foot because it's just behind the USA in that region in terms of dollars invested!

Personally, I'm not sure any of us can know, at the foot soldier level it's all about life, society, religion and politics. But for Presidents, Generals and Oligarchs it's all about the dollar$, dollar$ and dollar$!
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: Lods on October 10, 2023, 12:20:03 pm
Ive heard its Iran behind it.

The world is staring into the abyss right now. 

The strategy seems to be make the USA fight in as many theatres as possible.

It's called World War 3.
It's already started.
It's bascially the 'phony phase' before the serious combatants get involved with direct conflict.
It can be a short one.
And it may not involve nuclear confrontation.
But the world will never be the same.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: LP on October 10, 2023, 12:30:55 pm
Attributing this to one player is fraught with danger.  You have China and Taiwan, Iran and its interests, Ukraine and Russia, and the ascendency of the BRICS.
Agreed, but I'm not sure anybody takes Brazil seriously, Brazil in that list would be like referring to Fiji as a members of AUKUS!
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: mateinone on October 10, 2023, 02:18:48 pm
Whilst i don't know if Russia has any involvement, the head of RT was gloating about the wealthy Russians who had moved to Israel and asking "if they feel safe now, are they still dancing now" etc.. Which was pretty loathsome.

It does for sure seem a global battle has begun and the outcome of it is unknown. Russia and China are 2 countries who still absolutely have expansionist/colonialist intentions. Russia's influence has been growing on the African continent for a long time already and shows no signs of slowing. As disgusting and inhumane as it is, it is "smart" when you don't care about civilians and give a lot of weapons and boots on the ground military support to dictators who can give you untold wealth through natural resources. The biggest problem Russia (and China) potentially face is if they end up empowering fanatical Muslim terrorists to such an extreme they become the dominant expansion power base.
Title: Re: Russian Ukraine War
Post by: LP on October 10, 2023, 02:37:03 pm
As disgusting and inhumane as it is, it is "smart" when you don't care about civilians and give a lot of weapons and boots on the ground military support to dictators who can give you untold wealth through natural resources. 
Currencie$ contain zero humanity!