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Re: 9/11 Debate

Reply #165
Well said, Lods. As well as the problem with confirmation bias, there’s also the issue of relying on our intuition/gut/common sense to evaluate scientific matters.

Intuition can sometimes mislead even highly-trained people: pilots with many hours of flying under their belts can experience spatial disorientation and conclude their instruments are faulty. Flash Airlines Flight 604 ended up crashing into the Red Sea because the experienced captain continued to bank to the right as he thought he was correcting excessive banking to the left. It’s thought that John F Kennedy Jnr put his Cessna into a death spiral on a calm night for much the same reason.

But intuition can improve with training or education. Unfortunately, many don’t bother trying to improve their intuition, believing that their “common sense” gives them superior judgement to those Ivory Tower academics.

This makes it easy for good marketers to appeal to common sense. Nigel Parkinson, a Tory politician wrote a book 50 odd years ago in which he marketed conservative economic policies by arguing running a government was like running a household, so everyone could just apply common sense. He then suggested that households needed to operate on a balanced budget, so governments running deficits invited disaster. That set the table for guys like Peter Costello to demonise deficits which has poisoned the well for anything but PPP deals (even though we’ve had extremely low interest rates for a long time). The only “good deficits” have been those caused by conservative governments cutting taxes on the rich on the specious basis that the benefits would trickle down (or a rising sea would lift all boats). A recent study of 17 countries over 50 years have disproved this “common sense” policy but has demonstrated that it sure does increase the wealth of the rich and inequality.

There are plenty of examples in science that show the limits of uneducated or undereducated intuition.

One of the most relatable is the Monty Hall problem, loosely based on the game show Let’s Make a Deal:
Quote
Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Those who haven’t studied conditional probability would say that there’s 2 choices remaining and there’s 50% chance of the car being behind either, so there’s no benefit in switching. But it turns out that switching would increase your chances of winning the car. I was told that you can realign your intuition to operate in the conditional universe but I haven’t made that jump. My intuition is still stuck in simple probability mode even though I don’t doubt the mathematical conclusion.

Another example is the Painter’s Paradox aka Gabriel’s Horn aka Toricelli’s Trumpet which involve certain hornlike shapes stretching out to infinity. Oddly enough, despite the rim projecting out forever it has finite volume! Even more bizarrely, even though it has finite volume, it has infinite surface area! This is where the Painter’s Paradox comes in. You could fill such a horn with a finite (though immensely large) amount of paint. But even though it’s sitting in the horn, there’s not enough paint to cover the inside of the horn (cue Twighlight Zone music).

Then you have Quantum Mechanics which requires you to throw out common sense completely. It also requires you to throw out Newtonian Classical Mechanics (as you also need to do where you have speed more than a tenth of the speed of light). An object can’t be in 2 places at the same time, right? No Grasshopper, it can be everywhere at the same time! Quantum Entanglement Internet could see us receiving data simultaneously to its generation at a distant place. Mindblowing ...

None of the above suggests I am one of those gifted individuals who know everything. I’d like to think I have more than average knowledge but I’m more like a trained monkey who can do a limited number of tricks. To go anywhere near being able to debate something as complex as the destruction of the WTC buildings, I’d need to do a load of preparatory work in a variety of areas. And even then, maybe I’d end up being like a budgerigar trying to learn calculus.


Re: 9/11 Debate

Reply #166
None of the above suggests I am one of those gifted individuals who know everything. I’d like to think I have more than average knowledge but I’m more like a trained monkey who can do a limited number of tricks. To go anywhere near being able to debate something as complex as the destruction of the WTC buildings, I’d need to do a load of preparatory work in a variety of areas. And even then, maybe I’d end up being like a budgerigar trying to learn calculus.
@Mav‍ very very nicely put! ;D

I mentioned earlier a class of Mechanics called Statics and Dynamics, a nice book is freely available to read about this, but the reader best be prepared to have their mind mashed like potato regardless of how good they think they are at maths!

Introduction to Statics and Dynamics (40MB download)
Andy Ruina and Rudra Pratap (These guys are a tad clever, one of them wrote the MathCAD manuals!) :o

I keep a copy in my library, to remind me of how stupid I really am!
The Force Awakens!

Re: 9/11 Debate

Reply #167
...............................
This makes it easy for good marketers to appeal to common sense. Nigel Parkinson, a Tory politician wrote a book 50 odd years ago in which he marketed conservative economic policies by arguing running a government was like running a household, so everyone could just apply common sense. He then suggested that households needed to operate on a balanced budget, so governments running deficits invited disaster. That set the table for guys like Peter Costello to demonise deficits which has poisoned the well for anything but PPP deals (even though we’ve had extremely low interest rates for a long time). The only “good deficits” have been those caused by conservative governments cutting taxes on the rich on the specious basis that the benefits would trickle down (or a rising sea would lift all boats). A recent study of 17 countries over 50 years have disproved this “common sense” policy but has demonstrated that it sure does increase the wealth of the rich and inequality.
........................................

So so true. Poor suffering slobs have been fleeced for decades.

Re: 9/11 Debate

Reply #168
So so true. Poor suffering slobs have been fleeced for decades.
Even though they (the perpetrators of this heinous crime) are kents, ......... they are also likely to be savants!

There is a reason why corporate psychopaths dominate industry, the rest of us just can't think like them even when we try!

Are politicians a special class of the very same, a class that has realise being correct or truthful doesn't really matter as long as it seems you know what you are talking about?
The Force Awakens!

Re: 9/11 Debate

Reply #169
@cookie2  Most buildings are basically eggshells or hollow wire frames with central/internal supporting columns, not solid like the pyramids. Those columns work in very specific circumstances, kept in alignment by the floors which act as supports and dampeners. As the floors begin to pancake they reduced lateral support to the columns and effectively the columns develop kinks from a shockwave, initially they almost ring like a guitar string at some fundamental frequency, then eventually under compressive force they bow like overloaded straws, once bowed even slightly in any direction they have a fraction of the required strength to support even the buildings static mass, let alone the ongoing force of continuing impacts.

But really, in a failure like this, you only test the very weakest component, and in this case it was probably the stays and struts that supported the floors.

Well LP I will have to defer to your expertise on these matters. They are outside of my area so I will make no further comment.
Reality always wins in the end.

Re: 9/11 Debate

Reply #170
Well LP I will have to defer to your expertise on these matters. They are outside of my area so I will make no further comment.
Use this very day to day analogy.

Take a chopstick or straw and stand it vertically like a model of a column, you push straight down from one end the line of force you exert travels directly through the core to the other end. Now imagine the same model column with a significant bend or bow in it, the force you exert on the top still points towards the bottom, but the force no longer travels in a straight line between the top and the bottom, how can it there is nothing but empty space there!

The amount of bow and magnitude of force needed to deform or collapse the columns depends on the materials and rigidity, but none are infinite.
The Force Awakens!

Re: 9/11 Debate

Reply #171
@LP

Thanks, but as I said, nothing further to add.  :-X
Reality always wins in the end.

 

Re: 9/11 Debate

Reply #172
while aluminium and titanium once ignited burn at above 3200°F, both are common material components of aircraft.

Should i call you a conspiracy theorist now?

You keep stating it, even your own articles have suggested this did not happen.



Re: 9/11 Debate

Reply #173
I'm not one to put much credence into conspiracy theories.
That's just me though.
The basic reason is that it requires so many folks to be involved in the planning and execution, and they then have to maintain a level of secrecy with few or no leaks that it just defies logic.
From an initial thought (e.g. 'Let's start a war on terror')... how do you get from that point to recruiting people of power and expertise to your cause, and the end result of crashing planes and bringing down buildings?
Somewhere along the way someone must think it's not the brightest idea and say so.

This is not an area i have put too much research into, but playing devils advocate somewhat.

Firstly, this sort of thing has been planned (and i believe executed) multiple times in the past. We know why they do it, its just a matter of how often can they pull it off.

Secondly, the secrecy part of it is relatively easy to explain. Keep people in the dark. Give people a small job, don't tell them what its for or why they are doing it and they can't 'spill the beans'. Anyone who speaks out about it automatically a crack pot.
You see how many people who believe the standard line are happy to take pot shots at others who question it and flat out to refuse to look at any evidence the other side presents.
Alternatively, my drive is to get questions answered and am looking at what has been provided too me.....and have pointed out some questionable (IMO) parts of it in the process.

Thridly, the Nazis.
Follow orders, no matter how over the top they may seem. You'd be shunned if you refused (or worse).

Re: 9/11 Debate

Reply #174
This is not an area i have put too much research into, but playing devils advocate somewhat.

Firstly, this sort of thing has been planned (and i believe executed) multiple times in the past. We know why they do it, its just a matter of how often can they pull it off.

Secondly, the secrecy part of it is relatively easy to explain. Keep people in the dark. Give people a small job, don't tell them what its for or why they are doing it and they can't 'spill the beans'. Anyone who speaks out about it automatically a crack pot.
You see how many people who believe the standard line are happy to take pot shots at others who question it and flat out to refuse to look at any evidence the other side presents.
Alternatively, my drive is to get questions answered and am looking at what has been provided too me.....and have pointed out some questionable (IMO) parts of it in the process.

Thridly, the Nazis.
Follow orders, no matter how over the top they may seem. You'd be shunned if you refused (or worse).
Re the silence bit, I reckon that happens all the time and its done to not give people ideas and then "copy cat". Its like suicide, it happens every single day (sadly) and in public places but the news services don't report it. Partly because is gruesome, partly out of respect to families and those struggling, partly because of the copy thing. I remember talking to an architect in the 90s on a building site and we were talking about how the old buildings had a large gap between the stairs in the stair wells and he went on to explain they stopped doing it as people were talking their lives by jumping down them. I was shocked to learn this and he told me I'd be even more shocked how regularly it occurred (ie daily). Not reported on or details provided.
Can also add if you're feeling down, please talk to someone, anyone.
2017-16th
2018-Wooden Spoon
2019-16th
2020-dare to dream? 11th is better than last I suppose
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time

Re: 9/11 Debate

Reply #175
Without knowing for sure, I can't understand why a building would collapse under its own weight.

I've got no doubt it can, overall the biggest concern is how quickly it did and how easily it did.

There are a few things that bother me about the whole thing.

1. Buildings were designed to withstand a plane crashing into them.
2. Fire has NEVER bought down a skyscraper.
3. Buildings fell down extremely quickly, both in terms of time after they were hit....and once it started.

Official line....
1. Oh yeah, but that plane was slightly bigger.
2. Oh yeah, but the sprinklers were not working....and there was lots of fire.....in each of the 3 buildings.
3. Oh yeah, thats because they are heavy....and there was lots of fire.

Take that further and you see....
- The cleanup was remarkably quick with no real investigation done on the rubble.
- The media all changed their tune almost to the minute.....clearly informed of something.
- Any witness reports that had any contrary evidence were completely ignored.
- All of the passports of the hijackers had their passports found, with barely a mark of fire upon them.

Then if you start looking at the other plane crashes that occurred on 9/11....and you find that there is barely an evidence of an actual plane crash.

....and there are plenty more questions that are not answered, but raise more questions.

And i'm the conspiracy theories for seeking them

Re: 9/11 Debate

Reply #176
I wouldn't call nine months to clear the WTC site quick.  And rightly so as they were mindful of searching for all remains of the fallen.

As for the passports, how many passengers carry them on a domestic flight?  Very very few


Re: 9/11 Debate

Reply #177
Should i call you a conspiracy theorist now?

You keep stating it, even your own articles have suggested this did not happen.
No they don't you've made that up!

They write about about molten metals pouring down the side of the buildings being unlikely to be pure aluminium given the yellowish colour, and that aluminium is not likely to ignite at normal building fire temperatures.

You've taken an uncertainty, and morphed it into a certainty to supporting your case, isn't that a sign of a conspiracist?

You're too heavily invested in this, you'll keep making those mistakes if you don't stick to the facts.
The Force Awakens!

Re: 9/11 Debate

Reply #178
No they don't you've made that up!

They write about about molten metals pouring down the side of the buildings being unlikely to be pure aluminium given the yellowish colour, and that aluminium is not likely to ignite at normal building fire temperatures.

You've taken an uncertainty, and morphed it into a certainty to supporting your case, isn't that a sign of a conspiracist?

You're too heavily invested in this, you'll keep making those mistakes if you don't stick to the facts.

Which is exactly what the articles said.
It COULD be this.
It COULD be that.
You've taken an uncertainty and morphed it into a certainty......

OK, it wasn't disproven, but it was suggested it was highly unlikely.
You know what else fits that bill? A controlled demolition.

Its funny how you don't see that you are doing the same thing you accuse me of.

Re: 9/11 Debate

Reply #179
I wouldn't call nine months to clear the WTC site quick.  And rightly so as they were mindful of searching for all remains of the fallen.

As for the passports, how many passengers carry them on a domestic flight?  Very very few

Months to clear, steel was on the boat to china within days, and weeks.

I don't care about passenger passports. I'm talking about the hijackers passports. THEY were found....amongst over 200 floors of rubble, looking nice and clean with only the slightest blemishes on them.
So the fire is hot enough to deform metal to the point of collapse....but those passports....THEY are indestructable!!!