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Topic: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn (Read 6296 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #30
Young or Plowman? Might need another tall to replace OMac
Agree, think it has to be Young....McEvoy and Lewis are playing the big KP forward roles with McEvoy also sharing the rucking with Reeves. Plowman and McGovern are not big enough, Young improved after a poor start in the VFL game and has the size so for me its a horses for courses selection. McGovern is probably better suited to Gunston but as always the key is win the ball in the middle and keep it down our forward half. Hawks have some tough young hombres onball and coach Mitchell dropped Liam Shiels vs Port so I reckon Shiels might come back in as a run with player.
Newman will probably have to take Wingard so he needs to play close and not be kick chasing, the latter seems to kick important goals and is one of the Hawks classier players and doesnt need many opportunities to be effective.

Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #31
Is their an 'effective' clearance stat? Because Port's clearances tended to end up in the hands of their opponents! Whereas our clearances have a very real focus -- thus far -- of said clearance benefitting or ending up on the chest of a team mate - connection/retaining possession.
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #32
I think Young comes in if McDonald is out.

Cerra a certainty but not so sure on Martin. I doubt we'd drop Fisher and Owies and bring in more mid-size forwards. I think Owies and Durdin are working well together and offer plenty of ground ball pressure.

Newman was terrible in the last quarter so could make way for Plowman.

Think I read somewhere that Wingard is out for a few weeks with a hamstring.

Assuming McDonald is fit I'd say maybe just Cerra in for Fogarty and possibly Plowman for Newman. If Martin comes in, probably at the expense of Setterfield.

Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #33
I think Young comes in if McDonald is out.

Cerra a certainty but not so sure on Martin. I doubt we'd drop Fisher and Owies and bring in more mid-size forwards. I think Owies and Durdin are working well together and offer plenty of ground ball pressure.

Newman was terrible in the last quarter so could make way for Plowman.

Think I read somewhere that Wingard is out for a few weeks with a hamstring.

Assuming McDonald is fit I'd say maybe just Cerra in for Fogarty and possibly Plowman for Newman. If Martin comes in, probably at the expense of Setterfield.
Happy with all of that and yes pretty sure Wingard is out with a hammy

Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #34
Is McEvoy much of a threat as a forward? Until I see proof to the contrary, I'm assuming the Hawks need to find a spot for him as he's the Captain, much as North was lumbered with 3 ruckmen in their opening match because they didn't want to dump Goldstein. McEvoy may well take a few marks and kick a couple of goals, but his opponent can do a lot of damage going the other way. In fact, I would think the Gov would be a great matchup for him for precisely that reason.

Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #35
Is their an 'effective' clearance stat? Because Port's clearances tended to end up in the hands of their opponents! Whereas our clearances have a very real focus -- thus far -- of said clearance benefitting or ending up on the chest of a team mate - connection/retaining possession.

I’ve often wondered what constitutes a ‘clearance’ and is awarded a clearance stat as a result.
Reality always wins in the end.

Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #36
A lot of stats aren't what you'd think they are. For instance, contested marks include marks taken on the chest after your opponent has fallen to the ground or been blocked from following you. And they include those examples where the contest for the mark is a few metres ahead of you and the players in it knock themselves out of the contest only for the ball to lob onto your chest when you're by yourself.

And tackling stats are a bit weird. You can see player X apply heaps of heavy tackles on the other side, hurrying players into poor disposals. Then you look at the stats and there's a 0 or 1 against player X's tally of tackles. It makes it easy for player X's critics to say he applied no defensive pressure when your eyes tell you the opposite.

Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #37
A lot of stats aren't what you'd think they are.
Yes, it's folly to look at the stats alone.

For example, the AFL might demand a tackle is really "an effective tackle", and that requires trapping the opponent with the ball. So if the ball drops free or if the opponent disposes of the ball incorrectly it might not be a tackle stat even though the tackle caused it!
The Force Awakens!

Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #38
I heard David King musing on SEN about stats. He thought if someone designed stat-keeping from the ground up now they wouldn't bother with meaningless disposal stats. He noted that in soccer, they don't keep records of how many kicks players had. He thought the stats that are worth keeping have more to do with contested possessions and those that indicate influence on the game such as score involvements. He said Ollie Wines can be an influential player but wasn't against the Hawks despite stats suggesting otherwise. I guess clearance stats also can be misleading if the statisticians award a clearance to a player who clears the ball with a clanger or unproductive disposal.
No stat is meaningless if it tells you something. Possessions aren't everything, but they tell you who has the ball a lot. That can be very important.
Live Long and Prosper!

Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #39
I think Young comes in if McDonald is out.

Cerra a certainty but not so sure on Martin. I doubt we'd drop Fisher and Owies and bring in more mid-size forwards. I think Owies and Durdin are working well together and offer plenty of ground ball pressure.

Newman was terrible in the last quarter so could make way for Plowman.

Think I read somewhere that Wingard is out for a few weeks with a hamstring.

Assuming McDonald is fit I'd say maybe just Cerra in for Fogarty and possibly Plowman for Newman. If Martin comes in, probably at the expense of Setterfield.
Plowman on a dangerous fwd is coaching suicide. He has does silly stuff 1 on 1, oppo know it a play through his man.
2017-16th
2018-Wooden Spoon
2019-16th
2020-dare to dream? 11th is better than last I suppose
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time

Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #40
I think Young comes in if McDonald is out.

Cerra a certainty but not so sure on Martin. I doubt we'd drop Fisher and Owies and bring in more mid-size forwards. I think Owies and Durdin are working well together and offer plenty of ground ball pressure.

Newman was terrible in the last quarter so could make way for Plowman.

Think I read somewhere that Wingard is out for a few weeks with a hamstring.

Assuming McDonald is fit I'd say maybe just Cerra in for Fogarty and possibly Plowman for Newman. If Martin comes in, probably at the expense of Setterfield.

If Martin comes in, and I think he will, it will be at the expense of Fisher, Owies or Durdin, in that order.  Setterfield played his role quite well and the competition for his spot will be from Williamson, Newnes and perhaps Dow.
“Why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don’t you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don’t you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?”  Oddball

Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #41
If Martin comes in, and I think he will, it will be at the expense of Fisher, Owies or Durdin, in that order.  Setterfield played his role quite well and the competition for his spot will be from Williamson, Newnes and perhaps Dow.

Not a chance Fisher is going out.


Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #42
If Martin comes in, and I think he will, it will be at the expense of Fisher, Owies or Durdin, in that order.  Setterfield played his role quite well and the competition for his spot will be from Williamson, Newnes and perhaps Dow.

I'm not so confident about Setterfield. His fumbling hands are still a worry... turnover material.

Martin for Fogarty seems certain. Cerra for Setterfield, with either Cerra or Walsh taking up his position.

Hopefully OMac recovers from his back spasm. If not, Lewis Y. seems a logical replacement.
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #43
McDonald is out so will it be Young or Plowman?

McEvoy has been ineffective as a forward but he would stretch all but Weitering and Young, or does de Koning get a defensive role?
“Why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don’t you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don’t you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?”  Oddball

Re: AFL Rd 3 2022 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Hawthorn

Reply #44
McDonald is out so will it be Young or Plowman?

McEvoy has been ineffective as a forward but he would stretch all but Weitering and Young, or does de Koning get a defensive role?
Can the Dawks afford to sit Big Boy in the F50 given our height across the field, I suspect this week you might find a reversal of roles with perhaps Reeves floating forward and McEvoy doing more ruck work? Not sure Reeves or McEvoy are harder opponents than English at the moment, the media had English as the Dog's best, but I thought we nullified his effects in the centre and really if not for hitting the scoreboard he had an ordinary game in that we let him have little influence, no coaches gave him a vote, yet our rucks got no vote as well.

Last week Port basically had more play, more inside F50s, but had no way to score with a horrendous scoring efficiency, we are almost the exact opposite in that we have not much better efficiency but when we get a scoring attempt we convert, we will need to keep converting efficiently.
The Force Awakens!