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Re: Defence procurement bungles and wins

Reply #75
Buying nuclear submarines is like “buying a house in Italy” as it will end up costing “at least double of what you thought it was going to cost”....30 years@ 200 Billion is the figure quoted.
"And how could anyone actually put a final figure on something that is 30 years out with a new submarine as part of it – it just doesn’t stack up".
“What we’re actually looking at is rising the level of GDP for national defence spending from two to about three per cent, or at least two and a half per cent.
“These are huge numbers and yet the Albanese government hasn’t shown any way it intends to be able to pay for this in the next three years or the next 15 years.”.. says The Australian’s National Editor Dennis Shanahan.

Re: Defence procurement bungles and wins

Reply #76
“These are huge numbers and yet the Albanese government hasn’t shown any way it intends to be able to pay for this in the next three years or the next 15 years.”.. says The Australian’s National Editor Dennis Shanahan.
Shanahan knows as well as anybody else that the budget figures are in today dollars, not the 2050 dollars.

As with any major purchase or infrastructure project, it seems expensive at the time, but decades later it'll seem cheap and we won't be able to work out why it didn't happen earlier.

When I was a munchkin opponents claimed the Westgate Bridge was a luxury item the state could not afford, now we are replicating it with tunnels and people are claiming the tunnels are too expensive and a bridge would be a cheaper option.

Didn't I hear something on radio the other day about a bridge across Port Phillip Heads or Westernport Heads, aka the Bay Ring Road? Somebody claimed it was too much at estimated $90B, seems cheap today! :o
The Force Awakens!

Re: Defence procurement bungles and wins

Reply #77
Shanahan knows as well as anybody else that the budget figures are in today dollars, not the 2050 dollars.

As with any major purchase or infrastructure project, it seems expensive at the time, but decades later it'll seem cheap and we won't be able to work out why it didn't happen earlier.

When I was a munchkin opponents claimed the Westgate Bridge was a luxury item the state could not afford, now we are replicating it with tunnels and people are claiming the tunnels are too expensive and a bridge would be a cheaper option.

Didn't I hear something on radio the other day about a bridge across Port Phillip Heads or Westernport Heads, aka the Bay Ring Road? Somebody claimed it was too much at estimated $90B, seems cheap today! :o
Unfortunately I dont see China waiting 30 years to do what they want to do next ie Taiwan and building military infrastructure on the many pacific islands they will probably control. You also have to ask what we build will it still be relevant? and the question asked was where is the money coming from? I guess more taxes given Albanese has already broken an election promise and is fiddling with franking credits again and superannuation.

Re: Defence procurement bungles and wins

Reply #78
Those billionaires always seem to cop the short end of the stick, don’t they?

Re: Defence procurement bungles and wins

Reply #79
Unfortunately I dont see China waiting 30 years to do what they want to do next ie Taiwan and building military infrastructure on the many pacific islands they will probably control. You also have to ask what we build will it still be relevant? and the question asked was where is the money coming from? I guess more taxes given Albanese has already broken an election promise and is fiddling with franking credits again and superannuation.

You can bet that with the signing of this pact that the Yanks will start subs patrolling our northern and eastern waters almost immediately... just not announced as that would be unwise. The whole package is a defense strategy... with plenty of time to change or add to our 'order.' Not difficult to imagine that a tri-nation sub base will likely be built on the east coast... Mackay, Coffs?
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: Defence procurement bungles and wins

Reply #80
Unfortunately I dont see China waiting 30 years to do what they want to do next ie Taiwan and building military infrastructure on the many pacific islands they will probably control. You also have to ask what we build will it still be relevant? and the question asked was where is the money coming from? I guess more taxes given Albanese has already broken an election promise and is fiddling with franking credits again and superannuation.
These projects always evolve, how we pay for it will vary in time, and what gets delivered will also change.

The announcement is an intent, not a specification.
The Force Awakens!

Re: Defence procurement bungles and wins

Reply #81
The CPC’s strident response to the announcement and their frantic representations to the IAEC suggest that the AUKUS agreement has hit the target.

It’s a huge commitment but it’s a long term investment with significant returns.  Interestingly, the government has chosen to highlight the cost while stressing the timeframe.

What it does mean is that our defence budget must be targeted well and avoid cost over runs and focus on necessary assets rather than desirable materiel.  That should result in fewer MBTs, IFVs and CRVs in favour of SP artillery, HIMARs, and UAVs.
“Why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don’t you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don’t you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?”  Oddball

Re: Defence procurement bungles and wins

Reply #82
Serious question, could one of you ex Navy/Military dudes explain to a layman (moi) how such a huge investment on Subs make us safer/stronger defensively? I would have thought state of the art bombers, fighters and aircraft carriers would be the go.
2017-16th
2018-Wooden Spoon
2019-16th
2020-dare to dream? 11th is better than last I suppose
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time

Re: Defence procurement bungles and wins

Reply #83
Serious question, could one of you ex Navy/Military dudes explain to a layman (moi) how such a huge investment on Subs make us safer/stronger defensively? I would have thought state of the art bombers, fighters and aircraft carriers would be the go.

We have state of the art multi-role aircraft but their range is limited.  There aren't many specialised bombers in production these days and the US operates their bombers from Australian bases.

Aircraft carriers are expensive and very vulnerable to attack.  You would need a naval task force to protect your carrier from enemy submarines, aircraft, missiles, etc.  Losing your carrier(s) to enemy action would be devastaing. That's why there are very few genuine aircraft carriers in service; USA - 11, France - 1, Italy - 2, Japan -2, China - 2, UK - 2, India - 1, Russia - 1, Spain -1.  Technically, we could convert our two helicopter carriers to aircraft carriers but, apart from requiring new aircraft, that would mean more surface ships and submarines for protection.

Nuclear subs have virtually unlimited range and are stealthy.  They carry torpedoes, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, underwater drones, miniature submarines, special forces; all of which can be deployed while undetectable.
“Why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don’t you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don’t you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?”  Oddball

Re: Defence procurement bungles and wins

Reply #84
We have state of the art multi-role aircraft but their range is limited.  There aren't many specialised bombers in production these days and the US operates their bombers from Australian bases.

Aircraft carriers are expensive and very vulnerable to attack.  You would need a naval task force to protect your carrier from enemy submarines, aircraft, missiles, etc.  Losing your carrier(s) to enemy action would be devastaing. That's why there are very few genuine aircraft carriers in service; USA - 11, France - 1, Italy - 2, Japan -2, China - 2, UK - 2, India - 1, Russia - 1, Spain -1.  Technically, we could convert our two helicopter carriers to aircraft carriers but, apart from requiring new aircraft, that would mean more surface ships and submarines for protection.

Nuclear subs have virtually unlimited range and are stealthy.  They carry torpedoes, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, underwater drones, miniature submarines, special forces; all of which can be deployed while undetectable.
Thanks DJ. For context, from a weaponry point of view, how much does sub carry? I know nuclear subs can stay submerged for months at a time and can be virtually undetectable, but what sort of weapons payload can they carry compared to say a surface battleship?
2017-16th
2018-Wooden Spoon
2019-16th
2020-dare to dream? 11th is better than last I suppose
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time

Re: Defence procurement bungles and wins

Reply #85
Thanks DJ. For context, from a weaponry point of view, how much does sub carry? I know nuclear subs can stay submerged for months at a time and can be virtually undetectable, but what sort of weapons payload can they carry compared to say a surface battleship?
The Subs we are proposing to build are massive, almost twice the size of Collins Class, the new boats are more like underwater destroyers. Collins Class is < 80m(<3000t), Astute or Virginia Class is > 100m(>7000t).

I read a barrage of anti-sub rhetoric in the papers and on the conversation over the last few days. They all bash away at the same line, claiming that they will be redundant long before they are delivered, but it's so far from the truth it's not funny. A Sub is a stealth platform, at depth exposing them is like finding an angry needle in a haystack, it's seen you long before you saw it and you have to take a risk to pick it up or get stung.

So Subs are most useful at creating clear defendable zones that your other surface vessels can safely transit, like having SOS, Southby, Doull, Weiters, McKay and Hickmott setup a D50 zone that sets English and Harmes free to sprint up field.

Once you have the reliable platform, you can set it up with whatever you want.

btw., By the time these Subs are ready for service, they'll be capable of deploying vertical launch hypersonic missiles, even as non-nuclear they are going to be superiority weapons.
The Force Awakens!

Re: Defence procurement bungles and wins

Reply #86
Thanks DJ. For context, from a weaponry point of view, how much does sub carry? I know nuclear subs can stay submerged for months at a time and can be virtually undetectable, but what sort of weapons payload can they carry compared to say a surface battleship?

David's answer and the Spotted One's were really thorough, GTC, and spot on.

Comparing subs to surface ships is can be misleading as their roles are quite different.

Surface ships are far more vulnerable to air attack. Subs are more a strategic stealth vessel - they can arrive near (within kms or 100s of kms) a target undetected, launch their payload, then FO. They are also used as support for surface ships, patrolling waters hundreds of kms around said vessels, undetected.

Surface vessels and aircraft can be detected with modern equipment from a considerable distance... subs, not so much. Used effectively subs can be on your doorstep before you realise.



Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: Defence procurement bungles and wins

Reply #87
The way things are going we'll be lucky to see 2025, let alone 2050, without a full scale conflict.
The world will be a very different place by 2050.

Re: Defence procurement bungles and wins

Reply #88
There is some argy bargy today about "high level nuclear waste" from Subs, how are we going to deal with this "huge problem", what can we do to manage it safely, the claim is there are "no answers" to those questions and "the risk" in a country like Australia is "too high", so the Subs should be banned!

The reality is this.

Even from an old fashioned nuclear reactor, the high level waste is a very very small percentage of the total waste. Typically less than 5% older plants, for more modern plants less than 3% and for the next generation systems it is expected to be less than 1%. But what does that mean for the amount of high level waste?

Well I don't know about Subs as this they are need to know, but a gigawatt nuclear plant produces about 2L coke bottle of long term radioactive waste every year, of that less than 5% is "high level waste", so a bit more than a cap full or two from a 2L bottle. But a gigawatt nuclear plant is about 200x larger than the nuclear reactor on a Sub, so by ratio we are probably talking about some annual high level waste the size and volume of a postage stamp! That is ignoring the fact that the Sub reactors are far more advanced than power plants, and I suspect are probably more efficient simply because of the size and space constraints.

Much of what the public and media label as waste are unused materials surrounding the waste, much of that waste gets reprocessed/recycled and reused, the actual waste left over by volume after the reprocessing is very very small. You always get those images of pools full of pallets of nuclear waste, deathly glowing blue, but that isn't all waste in the pools, the pools keep the waste and unused material in a safe state (i.e, not irradiating the workers and building) as it cools enough to be reprocessed. For a Sub there might be something similar to those pools, but perhaps the size of a 200L drum.

btw.; Water is such an effective barrier at stopping most radiation, that there are long term plans / proposals to collect and clad space craft with ice as a solution to protect astronauts from solar or interstellar radiation.
The Force Awakens!

Re: Defence procurement bungles and wins

Reply #89
The way things are going we'll be lucky to see 2025, let alone 2050, without a full scale conflict.
The world will be a very different place by 2050.

Fingers crossed that the deterrent strategy keeps the peace.

Makes a sad comment about we humans that this is needed.

I think most nations know that any nuclear attack is suicide and will likely end with many, many millions perishing... instantly, then slowly from radiation exposure illnesses... then even starvation, disease etc.
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17