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Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #105
Why isn't anyone helping the Ukraine defend their own country?
They are but it's not going to be a slaughter, most nations involved in supporting Ukraine have Domestic Laws and Policies that govern how they can become engaged, if a country's military or politicians ignore those rules they would become war criminals in their own home.
The Force Awakens!

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #106
They are but it's not going to be a slaughter, most nations involved in supporting Ukraine have Domestic Laws and Policies that govern how they can become engaged, if a country's military or politicians ignore those rules they would become war criminals in their own home.

It's weird when NATO bombed Belgrade they didn't seem to care about civilians. Wonder what the difference was?
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #107
I think it's all totally unpredictable and just a mistake or deliberate action away from a debacle.

The next Russian 'wave' won't be based on the theory they can just waltz in and take Kiev.
It will be a more considered approach, based on their previous experience,  and that might mean an initial significant 'softening' up period before engaging ground forces in large numbers.

For the Ukranian's part...they'd love to see the West involved in a direct 'boots on the ground' support. They won't care about it turning into a wider conflict. They would see that as to their advantage. Their actions won't be designed with keeping the West out of it...the opposite will be in their thoughts.

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #108
Would that include the Aboriginal flag?

Interesting question MBB.  Most of us don't consider the Aboriginal flag to be a national flag but, to be consistent, all flags should be banned, particularly the boxing kangaroo. 

Some flags that no longer represent countries, or never did, are particularly offensive and/or are displayed to foment trouble.
“Why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don’t you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don’t you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?”  Oddball

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #109
Russia isn't backing down. They will nuke before they lose.

Not going to happen.  For a start, what would be the target(s), the country Putin's trying to annexe?  His own people would suffer almost as much as the Ukrainians.

Putin has threatened nuclear retaliation for western assistance of Ukraine and the west has stared him down.
“Why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don’t you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don’t you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?”  Oddball

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #110
It's weird when NATO bombed Belgrade they didn't seem to care about civilians. Wonder what the difference was?
I bet they did, and paid a high price politically after the fact whenever civilians are injured. Of course they were trying to eject an occupied force, and that was a lesson learned. Really it just supports my point that when war breaks out innocents get hurt, many of the big brave Generals and Soldiers or in some cases rebels like the KLA, use civilians as human shields!

But I bet they(Nato) would not deal with it the same way today!
The Force Awakens!

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #111
Russia and Russian's pride themselves on being strategic managers, that is why chess is so popular in the soviet block.

If Russia is pressed it will realise the way to end this current battle is to concede enabling them to live to fight another day, which they can do by knocking over the King! If the King is stupid enough to think his followers naivé then he'll be sacrificed to end the conflict.

There are 2 ways to concede or not lose.
1. as you describe.
2. Flip the entire chess board over and claim you never lost.

If anyone is going to go #2, its the nutcases in charge of Russia.

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #112
So i wrote a while back that Prigozhin was the most quite possibly the most dangerous man in Russia.
In the last 12 hours, this has come to fruition. He has turned away from Ukraine and started marching towards Moscow.

He has already surrounded the government building in Rostov, he has over 25,000 troops and it appears he is hell bent on forcing Shoigu out. The big question remains on whether his intentions include trying to take the Kremlin, or whether or not he sees himself as being like the Steltsy in the times of the tsars and thinks he is doing this to rid the Kremlin of evil doers poisoning the mind of Putin.

It has not been an uncommon theme in Russia for the elite (and before them the streltsy) to rid Russia of influential people. Peter the great was fearful of the streltsy from the time he witnessed them massacre his uncle and others when he was a child, the elite killed Rasputin etc etc. Prigozhin might actually consider himself as doing a duty for the people of Russia (who LOVE a strong man).

He more likely though is making a serious power play. Moscow has started fortifying itself for an assault, an arrest warrant has been issued for Prigozhin and it is hard to see this ending in any other way than the death of Prigozhin or a civil war of sorts.

What it means for the war in Ukraine is also interesting. If Prigozhin does continue his march on Moscow, you would think that they would need to pull back fire power to address this issue, this could create a real opportunity for Ukraine's counter offense.

Another option (though an unlikely one), is that this is a ruse to sucker Ukraine into overextending, but the US and Ukraine will have visuals on approximately how many troops have left Ukraine and crossed over into Russia.

I know inside Russia they are advising people to stay in their homes and they interrupted normal broadcasting to post urgent messages to citizens.

I don't want Putin to take over Ukraine, but I REALLY don't want Prigozhin to take over Moscow. It is still early in the morning in Russia (Moscow is 7 hours behind us, so 6:30 am), the next 12 hours will tell a lot more about the situation

 
Goals for 2017
=============
Play the most anti-social football in the AFL


Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #113
Interesting times..

Is this a 'way out'?
Putin can claim to have been given bad information by defence folks and they bear the brunt of what happened.
A risky strategy for Putin, because it shows a weakness and naivety
(not a good thing for a Russian leader,
It also may not stop the fighting because the Ukranians, would keep coming, to take back all lost territory.

or

Is it a case of Prigozhin's group, having served their purpose, now need to be disbanded...and the Wagner leader 'put away'.

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #114
So i wrote a while back that Prigozhin was the most quite possibly the most dangerous man in Russia.
In the last 12 hours, this has come to fruition. He has turned away from Ukraine and started marching towards Moscow.

He has already surrounded the government building in Rostov, he has over 25,000 troops and it appears he is hell bent on forcing Shoigu out. The big question remains on whether his intentions include trying to take the Kremlin, or whether or not he sees himself as being like the Steltsy in the times of the tsars and thinks he is doing this to rid the Kremlin of evil doers poisoning the mind of Putin.

It has not been an uncommon theme in Russia for the elite (and before them the streltsy) to rid Russia of influential people. Peter the great was fearful of the streltsy from the time he witnessed them massacre his uncle and others when he was a child, the elite killed Rasputin etc etc. Prigozhin might actually consider himself as doing a duty for the people of Russia (who LOVE a strong man).

He more likely though is making a serious power play. Moscow has started fortifying itself for an assault, an arrest warrant has been issued for Prigozhin and it is hard to see this ending in any other way than the death of Prigozhin or a civil war of sorts.

What it means for the war in Ukraine is also interesting. If Prigozhin does continue his march on Moscow, you would think that they would need to pull back fire power to address this issue, this could create a real opportunity for Ukraine's counter offense.

Another option (though an unlikely one), is that this is a ruse to sucker Ukraine into overextending, but the US and Ukraine will have visuals on approximately how many troops have left Ukraine and crossed over into Russia.

I know inside Russia they are advising people to stay in their homes and they interrupted normal broadcasting to post urgent messages to citizens.

I don't want Putin to take over Ukraine, but I REALLY don't want Prigozhin to take over Moscow. It is still early in the morning in Russia (Moscow is 7 hours behind us, so 6:30 am), the next 12 hours will tell a lot more about the situation

 
Puttin in hiding according to ABC sources, not looking great for his future and every civil war needs a fall guy.
Be interested to see where the military sit, according to the Wagner crew they are being allowed free passage to Moscow so far with no military action taken against them.
Prigozhin said he wants to take care of business in Moscow then return to the front to defend his country, lot of ego's and wannabe war heroes who want their part of Russian history. Hopefully Zelenksy can take advantage of the situation and shore up the Ukraine forces and kick what ever resistance from Russia still remains in his country and we can all get back to normal and watch the Russians implode.

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #115
Puttin in hiding according to ABC sources, not looking great for his future and every civil war needs a fall guy.
Be interested to see where the military sit, according to the Wagner crew they are being allowed free passage to Moscow so far with no military action taken against them.
Prigozhin said he wants to take care of business in Moscow then return to the front to defend his country, lot of ego's and wannabe war heroes who want their part of Russian history. Hopefully Zelenksy can take advantage of the situation and shore up the Ukraine forces and kick what ever resistance from Russia still remains in his country and we can all get back to normal and watch the Russians implode.
Putin's day is coming.
2017-16th
2018-Wooden Spoon
2019-16th
2020-dare to dream? 11th is better than last I suppose
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #116
One thing to remember is that in the last coup staged when the military locked up Gorbachev, the people of Moscow did come out to the streets and engage in battles against the army. There are a LOT of people who still support Putin and any attempt to try and oust him by force would very likely see average Russian's risk their lives to protest against this.

Putin has (pointedly without actually naming Prigozhin), just given a televised speech declaring the action illegal and vowing revenge on anyone who continues to take part. A lot of people in the normal army are fearful of Wagner, they are easily the most experience Russian fighters (and some of the most experienced fighters in the world) and they are totally ruthless, this could explain why they have not intercepted Wagner. The key will be to see if many join them.

If a few thousand standard Russian troops did join with Wagner, then you can imagine this reaching the streets of moscow.
The other thing against Prigozhin, is he is reviled and feared by many inside the Kremlin. They worry about someone who criticizes to often and so easily and continues to get away with this. It is hard to imagine him getting broad support unless Putin orders them to accept him. The most likely outcome to end this is the arrest or death of Prigozhin still.

There is talk of gains made by Ukraine today, so perhaps they are already taking advantage of this situation.

 
Goals for 2017
=============
Play the most anti-social football in the AFL


Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #117
Interesting times..

Is this a 'way out'?
Putin can claim to have been given bad information by defence folks and they bear the brunt of what happened.
A risky strategy for Putin, because it shows a weakness and naivety
(not a good thing for a Russian leader,
It also may not stop the fighting because the Ukranians, would keep coming, to take back all lost territory.

or

Is it a case of Prigozhin's group, having served their purpose, now need to be disbanded...and the Wagner
leader 'put away'.

There is definitely a case for this giving Putin a "way out", though leaving Ukraine would be unpopular, especially within his inner circle, but if he was to remove Gerasimov and Shoigu , then that takes some pressure off. If he was able to play this as a lie perpetuated on the Russian people by leaders who wanted to take control of Russia, it would give an avenue out, even though it would be transparently ridiculous to the rest of society, Russians are used to buying the lies from their television screens.

I think still more likely Prigozhin loses, but the fact Putin didn't criticize Prigozhin in name, nor the Wagner group seems to suggest he is waiting to see which way the wind blows
Goals for 2017
=============
Play the most anti-social football in the AFL


Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #118
False Flag coup, now Putin has the name of every person not committed to his cause!
The Force Awakens!

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #119
It's like everyone has forgotten about the night of the long knives.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson