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Topic: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Pre Game Prognostications (Read 29109 times) previous topic - next topic
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Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #45 –
I'm not really a fan of this "free hit" mentality that seems to be going around. Whilst I understand the psychological and motivational trickery behind the idea, I think it's false. I think if the players adopt that mentality, they have already convinced themselves that a loss is okay, they have already talked themselves into approaching the game with a less competitive mindset. As we know from our recent history, these opportunities are rare, and there is absolutely no guarantee that the boys will get another one.

I know Brisbane are clear and obvious favourites, but I think both teams are under equal pressure to win, and any loss should be equally felt by both. The boys must forego this "free hit" mentality and must go in believing that a loss will be devastating.

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #46 –
Quote from: PaulP on
I'm not really a fan of this "free hit" mentality that seems to be going around. Whilst I understand the psychological and motivational trickery behind the idea, I think it's false. I think if the players adopt that mentality, they have already convinced themselves that a loss is okay, they have already talked themselves into approaching the game with a less competitive mindset. As we know from our recent history, these opportunities are rare, and there is absolutely no guarantee that the boys will get another one.

I know Brisbane are clear and obvious favourites, but I think both teams are under equal pressure to win, and any loss should be equally felt by both. The boys must forego this "free hit" mentality and must go in believing that a loss will be devastating.

You reckon Vossy thinks a loss is ok?

Don't be confused from the outside noise vs inside expectations.
Night and day.

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #47 –
Quote from: PaulP on
I'm not really a fan of this "free hit" mentality that seems to be going around. Whilst I understand the psychological and motivational trickery behind the idea, I think it's false. I think if the players adopt that mentality, they have already convinced themselves that a loss is okay, they have already talked themselves into approaching the game with a less competitive mindset. As we know from our recent history, these opportunities are rare, and there is absolutely no guarantee that the boys will get another one.

I know Brisbane are clear and obvious favourites, but I think both teams are under equal pressure to win, and any loss should be equally felt by both. The boys must forego this "free hit" mentality and must go in believing that a loss will be devastating.
Reckon Brisbane has far more pressure on them than we do - they are expected to win and have supposedly been building towards this for three years.

Never underestimate the weight of expectation, and they have certainly have had their 'deer in the headlights' moments this year.  Seen it so many times - I call it expectation paralysis.

Not to mention they will have only played one game of footy in a month (and even that was a walk in the park).  Based on similar situations (Syd v Gee 2016 PF, Coll v Rich 2018 PF, WB vs PA 2021 PF), the secret will be to go super-hard at the start while they are still warming up, and build a half-decent lead - then, the combination of trailing and weight of expectation becomes too big to cope with.

I don't think for one minute this group will settle for an honourable loss.  They are 240 minutes of strong football away from what would probably be this club's greatest ever premiership, if not the greatest ever in the history of the AFL/VFL.
This is now the longest premiership drought in the history of the Carlton Football Club - more evidence of climate change?

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #48 –
Quote from: PaulP on
I'm not really a fan of this "free hit" mentality that seems to be going around. Whilst I understand the psychological and motivational trickery behind the idea, I think it's false. I think if the players adopt that mentality, they have already convinced themselves that a loss is okay, they have already talked themselves into approaching the game with a less competitive mindset. As we know from our recent history, these opportunities are rare, and there is absolutely no guarantee that the boys will get another one.

I know Brisbane are clear and obvious favourites, but I think both teams are under equal pressure to win, and any loss should be equally felt by both. The boys must forego this "free hit" mentality and must go in believing that a loss will be devastating.

They go in deserved favourites with all the pressure on them.

Once you're in the prelim, all bets are off, our best is good enough, but it's called the gabbatoir for a reason.

The free hit stuff is all about mentality of not having expectations.  We could get blown away and it would be no harm done but a missed opportunity.

It is a relative free hit for us.  A bit like the 99 grand final. No one expected us to win, we didn't and the world kept spinning.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #49 –
I think that on this occasion it won't be so much about mental attitude.
Our mental side is as good as any now.
We'll give it all we have.
If we lose it will be because we're physically at the end of our rope.
 

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #50 –
Daniher & Hipwood are spuds who tend to be 'conditional' players in that they pick & choose when or if they want to seriously compete, put the clamps on them and the Lions are going to rely on Cameron & Bailey to score heavily.

Even though I thought he was poor the other week, I'm certain McKay will come straight back in to further stretch the Lions shortish backline. This should give Curnow some extra freedom too.

In the middle of the ground is where the game will be won & lost. They have some terrific mids who hurt you by foot plus they bob up to kick goals as well. Keep them under some tight shackles and it will go a long way towards winning the match.

A small bonus is that we played on Friday night and this week's game is on Saturday which gives our players, who must be sore & tiring, an extra day to freshen up. I accept that it is only a small tenure but it may be telling in the end. Have a look at the Giants, they have been given the opposite schedule (Sat-Fri) so we should be thankful of how it has panned out.

We had a lot of players who were rather poor the other night, if they extract the digit and at worst, break even with their opponent, we area big chance this week.

Tackle hard, chase hard and never ever give up (i.e. second & third efforts), if you want it hard enough, you will get it !!
"The Other Teams Can Rot In Hell"

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #51 –
Quote from: laj on
Fair to say if we beat Brisbane at the Gabba we'll go on and win the flag. That is easily toughest task going. It can only get "easier" after that.

1999 says hi…
The job ain’t done until its done !!
Let’s go BIG !

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #52 –
Quote from: Lods on
I think that on this occasion it won't be so much about mental attitude.
Our mental side is as good as any now.
We'll give it all we have.
If we lose it will be because we're physically at the end of our rope.

Lots of boys looked very fresh on Friday - Cerra, Walsh, Hewett, TDK looked very fresh and ran all day. Doc, Acres and Cripps are all carrying ailments but the team looks like they have momentum behind them and seem to be very battle hardened.

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #53 –
Quote from: northernblue on
1999 says hi…
The job ain’t done until its done !!

That year was a bit different given we spent the year being crap for alot of that season and got there with the greatest upset ever. Never likely to win the next week. This year we are a good side that looks anyone in the eye. My belief this time is if we are good enough to win at the Gabba then we are better than what is left.

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #54 –
Quote from: Thryleon on
They go in deserved favourites with all the pressure on them.

Once you're in the prelim, all bets are off, our best is good enough, but it's called the gabbatoir for a reason.

The free hit stuff is all about mentality of not having expectations.  We could get blown away and it would be no harm done but a missed opportunity.

It is a relative free hit for us.  A bit like the 99 grand final. No one expected us to win, we didn't and the world kept spinning.

Maybe not the best analogy Thry, spiraling might be a better fit 😎
In 1999 we played our gf a week early and need to be aware of this on Saturday night.
Let’s go BIG !

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #55 –
If we are to have any chance to win this week we have to make some hard calls. I fully expect both Doc and Acres will play. Pump them full of as much painkiller as is legally allowed. McKay and Martin will both come in and so they should. The big question is who comes out and that is where it's gets difficult. For me I think one has to be Cuningham who has just played too many average sort of games over the last month and the fact he was subbed out last Friday may be a definite tell. Personally I like him but as I say it's time to be ruthless.
Second bloke out for me is Owies. Just doesn't do enough. I've never been a big fan and last Friday he was next to useless IMO. Kicked a goal from about 40 out, which in itself amazed me, but I think Kennedy, who has come back from a long layoff, achieved as much if not more than Owies did last Friday.
Unfortunately can't see JSOS or Dow getting a role as Holands was pretty good as the sub.
Only issue is will it work with TDK, Pitt, H and Charlie all in the same team? Maybe the weather will play a part in selection?

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #56 –
Quote from: rocky on
If we are to have any chance to win this week we have to make some hard calls. I fully expect both Doc and Acres will play. Pump them full of as much painkiller as is legally allowed. McKay and Martin will both come in and so they should. The big question is who comes out and that is where it's gets difficult. For me I think one has to be Cuningham who has just played too many average sort of games over the last month and the fact he was subbed out last Friday may be a definite tell. Personally I like him but as I say it's time to be ruthless.
Second bloke out for me is Owies. Just doesn't do enough. I've never been a big fan and last Friday he was next to useless IMO. Kicked a goal from about 40 out, which in itself amazed me, but I think Kennedy, who has come back from a long layoff, achieved as much if not more than Owies did last Friday.
Unfortunately can't see JSOS or Dow getting a role as Holands was pretty good as the sub.
Only issue is will it work with TDK, Pitt, H and Charlie all in the same team? Maybe the weather will play a part in selection?

We need a target at CHF and and TDK goes ok as third tall deep in the forward line.
Cunners and Owies not doing enough agree. Kennedy has to stay in as medium/small.
Also concerned with Cincottas game against Pickett - Charlie Cameron, Zac Bailey are gun players
Kennedy can rotate through the middle whereas Owies can't and Motlop is a smarter/classier player than Owies.

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #57 –
Quote from: pinot on
We need a target at CHF and and TDK goes ok as third tall deep in the forward line.
Cunners and Owies not doing enough agree. Kennedy has to stay in as medium/small.
Also concerned with Cincottas game against Pickett - Charlie Cameron, Zac Bailey are gun players
Kennedy can rotate through the middle whereas Owies can't and Motlop is a smarter/classier player than Owies.

Pickett did almost SFA until late in the third quarter. He marked and goaled in the last and the person I saw on him was Saad. Fogarty was poor as well on Friday, but he does have the added benefit of being able to rotate through the midfield and has pace to chase and tackle, Owies, yes as mentioned, does not have midfield ability or speed. Yes, Owies certainly has been very poor this finals series. Kennedy was average at best, but he did chime in and play some role in an uncomfortable second tall forward position. Motlop definitely stays in, bar injury. The consensus seems to be Cuningham and Owies out, for Martin and McKay. Who am I to argue? I won't. Btw, definitely agree that TDK can play as a third/second resting tall forward. We saw that on Friday night.

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #58 –
Quote from: rocky on
If we are to have any chance to win this week we have to make some hard calls. I fully expect both Doc and Acres will play. Pump them full of as much painkiller as is legally allowed. McKay and Martin will both come in and so they should. The big question is who comes out and that is where it's gets difficult. For me I think one has to be Cuningham who has just played too many average sort of games over the last month and the fact he was subbed out last Friday may be a definite tell. Personally I like him but as I say it's time to be ruthless.
Second bloke out for me is Owies. Just doesn't do enough. I've never been a big fan and last Friday he was next to useless IMO. Kicked a goal from about 40 out, which in itself amazed me, but I think Kennedy, who has come back from a long layoff, achieved as much if not more than Owies did last Friday.
Unfortunately can't see JSOS or Dow getting a role as Holands was pretty good as the sub.
Only issue is will it work with TDK, Pitt, H and Charlie all in the same team? Maybe the weather will play a part in selection?
Brisbane's driest time of the year tends to be at this time of year. I haven't checked the forecast, but I reckon it'll be a dry game. McKay will come in and the two rucks won't be dropped either.

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #59 –
At this writing the Saturday Brisbane forecast is 15-24, partly cloudy, 20% chance of rain, winds SE 15-25kmh. If the rain hold off, it sounds like decent conditions for footy.