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Messages - kruddler

1
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Pressure acts are weighted; physical pressure acts (bumping, pushing, tackling) are worth 3.75 points, closing acts are worth 2.25 points, chasing acts are 1.5 points and corralling are 1.2.  Chasing and corralling (Zac Fisher's forte) are worth less because they don't have much impact on the ball carrier's ability to dispose of the ball.  Fantasia isn't tackling as much as Durdin and Owies so he must be doing a hell of a lot more corralling, chasing and closing to be 17 to 8 and 5.

The same applies to Charlie.  Apparently he doesn't chase and his tackle numbers are relatively low so, to be so far ahead of Harry, Durdin and Owies in pressure acts, he must be dynamite on closing acts and corralling.

Harry has incredible acceleration for a big man and his ability to put pressure on defenders by closing and tackling is a bonus for our forwards.  Charlie has greater endurance but not the same acceleration.  He puts his endurance to good use by applying pressure, closing and corralling, but his main priority is to create separation with his defenders.  That's not quite so critical for Harry as he usually enjoys a size and strength advantage.

As MBB said, you are describing something different.

If you compare a players pressure acts with Tackles, you generally see a player higher in one or the other.
So Charlie is high in pressure acts, but low in tackles.
Harry is higher in tackles, but lower in pressure acts.
They almost need to be read together to get a true understanding of how well a player is doing.

What you are talking about is the pressure rating that they show during games, which is a combination of everything you say.

Its very difficult getting consistent stats on all of this stuff.
AFL app, shows different to AFL website, which is different to footywire which is different to AFL tables etc etc
3
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Best 22 of 2024 - Part 3 - After Round 6
That's a stretch too far for some of these blokes.  :(
I included Marchbank in my 22, given the criteria...
But 'Fit' and 'uninjured' are mutually exclusive terms when combined with 'Marchbank'

I think i had him in at some stage this year, and definitely parts of last year, but i don't see a huge upside to him over McGovern or Kemp playing similar roles, so i think his days might be limited unless he can work out that 'fit/uninjured' part.
4
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Best 22 of 2024 - Part 3 - After Round 6
What I found from the exercise is that we've got a pretty good VFL team when there are few injuries. ;D

I found we have about 10 players who are 23rd on our list.

For the record,
FB - Newman - Weitering - Boyd
HB - McGovern - Kemp - Saad
W - O.Hollands - Cerra - Acres
HF - Cuningham - McKay - Cottrell
FF - Fogarty  - Curnow - Owies
R - De Koning - Cripps - Hewett
Int - Walsh - Williams - Martin - Kennedy

23rd......
E. Hollands
Pittonet
Cincotta
Motlop
C. Durdin
Carroll
Marchbank
Fantasia
N/A
Silvagni
Docherty
6
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
MBB’s post from the post GWS game thread:

Apart from destroying the “Charlie doesn’t defend” nonsense, it illustrates one aspect of Fantasia’s game that goes largely unnoticed.

As Thry has pointed out, Fantasia’s leadership is another reason why he is in the team. We have more than our share of relatively inexperienced players and Fantasia’s guidance and encouragement is invaluable.

Is Fantasia in our best 23? Probably not, but he will continue to be selected until Martin and Motlop are back in the mix.

Playing devils advocate, when i posted similar stats, people didn't like them because a pressure act was deemed to be the ability of created pressure without actually doing anything. Like chasing rather than catching.

I did a comparison of tackles, and Fantasia is well behind the other small forwards.
8
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 6 2024 Post Game Review Carlton vs GWS
To me the issue has always been a case of thinking in the present rather than thinking about what might be achieved.
That could never be done without them at least playing some time together, and developing that combination.
It won't always work, or even be the best option every game.
But if you don't try you never know, and that's not going to happen with one of them stuck in the VFL.

Yeah, but you could say that about a million different permutations.

Why dont we try 6 small forwards in the side.
Why don't we try 3 rucks in the side.
Its not through lack of trying that we have got to this point, its been through lack of output.
The output we have got from them last game was very good. The week before, less so. Next week, who knows.
The most promising thing to come out of last week was the ability of TDK to be a genuine forward.
Never kicked 3 goals before.
Never crumbed a goal (AFAIK).
He has always had the potential to do it.....just never put it all together.
Hopefully that was his turning point.
Hopefully next week we do not see the 'old TDK' come back.

I mentioned previously that against injury riddled defensive unit from GWS, inside with ideal conditions at Marvel was the perfect breeding ground for his success.
Outside, in the swirly wind in slippery conditions (which might be this week) may not be so rewarding for him, and the team.
9
Ladies Lounge / Re: VFLW 2024
Crash, is this comp like a second tier, out of season thing, not the full blown professional competition?

Basically yes.

The real thing is the AFLW......and technecially THAT is 'out of season' with the way they keep moving the start/end times around.

The VFLW is equivalent to the VFL. Made up of non-listed players with top talent sprinkled in.
11
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Best 22 of 2024 - Part 3 - After Round 6
I find it's getting difficult to narrow it down to 22, because I think the best team probably comes from 24 or 25 players subject to the opposition. In that regard I find a best 22 a bit redundant, in much the same way handing out medals on GF day to the "22" is also redundant.

We are using the wisdom of the group to work out our best players.
22, 23, 25.....doesn't matter. End result is the same, we'll find the best players...only thing that changes is the distrubution of votes amongst them. ;)
12
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 6 2024 Post Game Review Carlton vs GWS
We'll see how we against the cats.
I'd only play one ruckman this week.  The cats have historically surrendered clearance dominance to win field position.

You are correct about Cats game style.
However, that is true once the ball is in play and they can players off the ball.
From 6-6-6 centre bounces, they can't do that. That is where have been most effective. We would win field position early. If we can turn our centre clearances into goals more often than not, they won't have a chance to win field position. Once its around the ground, their setups make that easier to do.
It will be an interesting chess game.

As good as we were last week with both Pitto and TDK, i'm not sure that they can keep that up every week and against the wiley cats will be a bigger test than against the Giants IMO.

But if we win the centre clearance, get a good kick forward, we have the talent to convert and its very hard to stop.
We just need to make sure we hit a target and convert
14
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 7 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong at the MCG
Hardly had any footy but ironically it was probably his best game, even so 6 disposals isn't going to cut it, he needs to find a way to get involved in more chains of play.

Fantasia...
He's played 6 games.
He averages 7.6 touches and 1.1 tackle.
He's kicked 2.2 goals.behinds, 5 goal assists.

Durdin...
He's played 5 games.
He averages 5.7 touches and 2.8 tackles.
He's kicked 5.2 goals.behinds, 1 goal assist.

Owies...
He's played 6 games.
He averages 8.2 touches and 1.8 tackles.
He's kicked 8.4 goals.behinds, 0 goal assists

Thats a big enough sample size for mine.

Fantasia is almost 29.
He is being outplayed by a 22yo in Durdin, and a former late starting rookie basketballer who is 27 in Owies.
Play Moir or Motlop depending on who is fit and in form and give him a spell in the 2's.
15
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 6 2024 Post Game Review Carlton vs GWS
@DJC...
Re rucks.....
Pitto only played 50% game time last week. Up to 70% this week.
They are still easing him back into the game so don't take current ruck numbers from past week (and this week) as 'normal'.
We are still finding our 'normal'.

Pitto had more HTA, but had more contests, so TDK was more effective this week. That is a rarity, but could become more common with Pitto taking more ruck contests.
As people are aware, Pitto grinds down the opponents and TDK benefits by jumping over them. The more Pitto takes, the better TDK will be. Thats why its important for him to find a niche as a forward.

Some ruck stats....
RC->HTA% vs Giants (Reminder this is 'hitouts to advantage / ruck contests attended - or likelyhood of a hitout to advantage from each individual ruck contest)
TDK - 22%
Pitto - 15%
Briggs - 8%

That is elite from both Pitto and TDK. Anything about 11% is about average. Anything 12% and above is in the top half. 15% and above is probably top 3-5.

As a comparison....last week (RC-HTA%)
Pitto - 10%
TDK - 5.5%
Obrien - 20%

2024.....(RC-HTA%)
Pitto - 12.7%
TDK - 11%

2023...
Pitto - 14.7%
TDK - 11.2%

2022....
Pitto - 17.1%
TDK - 11.5%

Some clearance stats....
Pitto was 2nd in clearances this week, 3rd the week before (despite 50% TOG) and is offering plenty after the contest. Elite ranking in centre clearances and above average in total clearances. TDK is listed as below average in this. However, this doesn't take into account how many times they are playing 'as a ruck'. So similar to hitouts to advantage, the following stats are true representations on how effective they are getting a clearance from ruck contests attended.

RC->Clearance%
2024
Pitto - 12.7% - off the charts
TDK - 11% - excellent

202
Pitto - 5%
TDK - 11%

2022
Pitto - 6%
TDK - 5%


So right now, both rucks are playing out of their skins and being elite in the ruck contests and clearances. They are also hitting the scoreboard as well. Both appear fit and full of confidence. Hopefully they can keep up these efforts, including up forward, and i think staying fit is key to this.