Carlton Supporters Club

I don’t think we have a dedicated EV thread so here goes:

Robert Pepper is an automotive journalist who is more of an acquaintance than a mate (I have met him through a 4WD club and we are FB friends).  He doesn’t play favourites and conducts his own research to test manufacturers’ claims.  The following is his take on the recent Dakar rally:

An EV has won Dakar!  No it didn't, it's not an EV!

So which is it?  An electric vehicle, or a petrol vehicle? The opposing camps are each claiming the vehicle as their own.

The answer is both and neither. It's a hybrid. Similar in fact to Nissan's X-Trail e-Power.

So the Audi RS Q e-tron is indeed pure electric drive. It has an electric motor on the front axle, and another on the rear.  The "centre differential" is software, virtual.  This is just like Rivians, AWD Teslas including Cybertruck and the other AWD EVs.  There is no gearbox, single-speed.  Watch my EV AWD powertrains video for more on all of this.

The Audi RS Q e-tron also has a battery which weighs around 370kg and has a capacity of around 52kWh, which is pretty small for even a roadcar EV.  Total weight is 2100kg without drivers.

Now as you can imagine a 52kWh battery isn't going to get a 2100kg sand racer on 37" tyres very far. Which is why there is also a 2.0L, four-cyclinder turbo petrol engine which acts as a generator, or energy convertor - it generates electricity which either powers the motors at the axle, or charges the battery. The battery can also be recharged via re-gen when the vehicle slows.  And that's exactly what the X-Trail e-Power uses. Older hybrids used the ICE motors to directly drive the powertrain as well as the electric motors.

So is the Audi RS Q e-tron an EV?  Yes, and also, no.  Yes as it has electric motors which drive the car, and that is the technical definition of an EV, which doesn't preclude how those motors have their power supplied - from a generator driven by petrol, hydrogen, or just a big battery, or even solar. A "hydrogen car" is also an EV as it uses electricity to power its engine, just that electricity is generated by a hydrogen powerplant.  The definition of an EV doesn't mean it has to have a battery.

But in popular parlance, most people think of an EV as what is actually a BEV, or Battery Electric Vehicle which has no ICE (petrol/diesel) engine at all, and the Audi RS Q e-tron is not a BEV as whilst it has a battery, it also has a petrol engine.

Hopefully that clears it up.  You can go back to shouting at each other now which should make everyone feel better.

Yep.  I like the shouting at each other bit the most.

Personally, I just want to drive a mid sized hatchback that isnt going to cost me a house deposit, and am agnostic when it comes to ICE vs EV vs BEV vs what ever other acronym is being invented.

Instead, you can buy a small, medium or large SUV, a commercial vehicle, or a hatchback or one of the crappy little sedans that fit nothing but the people they are transporting. 

The ICE/EV concept is nothing new.  Diesel locomotives have diesel-powered electric motors and Ferdinand Porsche's WW2 Tiger tank had twin ten-cylinder diesel engines, each of which powered a 500 kVA generator that fed twin 230 kW generators that powered the electric motors that drove each set of tracks.

Of course, Audi's set up is far more sophisticated and efficient, as is Porsche's current version of Ferdinand's concept.  The fact that the ICE/EVs don't have gears, transmission or transfer case means that they are lighter, easier to drive and quicker to get from point A to point B.  They're still burning fossil fuel though, but probably not for too much longer.

My diesel V8 will probably keep going until diesel is outlawed or becomes too expensive.  I probably won't need a vehicle then  :)

My diesel V8 will probably keep going until diesel is outlawed or becomes too expensive.  I probably won't need a vehicle then  :)

This is the million dollar question that nobody seems to know the answer too. When is Diesel (and petrol) going to become unsustainable financially.

I'm due for a new work car that is sorted through work. I can have a 2-3 year lease and buy it out after that which at that time, will most likely go to the missus and she can sell her car (currently a CX9.)

So i've been kicking tyres for 2 years trying to work out what i should get / invest in with an eye to the long term viability of it and how it would suit our families needs basically now and 6 years from now.

Currently i've got a ranger and am very happy with it. Doesn't miss a beat, has all the fancy tech which half drives itself.
But, the missus won't want to drive a ranger as a daily drive....and fair enough too. Ditto any other ute.
So i've been looking at some SUVs and Prado and Everest seem to be the go-to options which i can make do with and she'd happily drive down the track....and have the 7 seats which she 'needs' despite us only having 2 kids....but i digress.

Currently there is no PHEV (insert acronym here) in either of those and varying reports on if/when there will be, despite it being 'on-the-cards' for years now.

So do i continue to wait for a hybrid?
Do i pull the plug now and end up with a money sink down the track?

Currently i'm in a state of paralysis by analysis and i need to get moving one way or another soon.
What do i do?

This is the million dollar question that nobody seems to know the answer too. When is Diesel (and petrol) going to become unsustainable financially.

I'm due for a new work car that is sorted through work. I can have a 2-3 year lease and buy it out after that which at that time, will most likely go to the missus and she can sell her car (currently a CX9.)

So i've been kicking tyres for 2 years trying to work out what i should get / invest in with an eye to the long term viability of it and how it would suit our families needs basically now and 6 years from now.

Currently i've got a ranger and am very happy with it. Doesn't miss a beat, has all the fancy tech which half drives itself.
But, the missus won't want to drive a ranger as a daily drive....and fair enough too. Ditto any other ute.
So i've been looking at some SUVs and Prado and Everest seem to be the go-to options which i can make do with and she'd happily drive down the track....and have the 7 seats which she 'needs' despite us only having 2 kids....but i digress.

Currently there is no PHEV (insert acronym here) in either of those and varying reports on if/when there will be, despite it being 'on-the-cards' for years now.

So do i continue to wait for a hybrid?
Do i pull the plug now and end up with a money sink down the track?

Currently i'm in a state of paralysis by analysis and i need to get moving one way or another soon.
What do i do?

As long as it’s only an option to purchase, I’d grab the funest.
I’d happily drive a ev but when I purchased my van in 2021 there were no ev vans, so I went with a turbo diesel HiAce.

So i've been looking at some SUVs and Prado and Everest seem to be the go-to options which i can make do with and she'd happily drive down the track....and have the 7 seats which she 'needs' despite us only having 2 kids....but i digress.

Currently there is no PHEV (insert acronym here) in either of those and varying reports on if/when there will be, despite it being 'on-the-cards' for years now.

So do i continue to wait for a hybrid?
Do i pull the plug now and end up with a money sink down the track?

Currently i'm in a state of paralysis by analysis and i need to get moving one way or another soon.
What do i do?

I can't believe the changes of mind over the Everest PHEV.  One article says 2024, the next says never and so on ad nauseum.  ::)

I don't think things will change dramatically over the next five years or so ... but that could be famous last words!

I can't believe the changes of mind over the Everest PHEV.  One article says 2024, the next says never and so on ad nauseum.  ::)

I don't things will change dramatically over the next five years or so ... but that could be famous last words!

Yep.
Bloody frustrating.

I know as soon as i make a decision, the following week there will be an announcement thats its on the way. I've got awesome timing like that.

Example....
After years of thinking about it, decided to 'upgrade' the house and move not far away (same suburb). Looking at prices, attending auctions with no luck. Finally had a winning bid on the saturday. On the Monday was the first of the non-stop rate increases we've seen. Had a 12 month bridging loan. and an investment loan. All 3 of them doubled by the time we sold our old joint and moved in. Cost us 1000's if not 10,000's due to timing of the whole thing.

So i've been kicking tyres for 2 years trying to work out what i should get / invest in with an eye to the long term viability of it and how it would suit our families needs basically now and 6 years from now.

For me waiting for a reliable PHEV might be a long wait, when the first ones come out they'll struggle. A mate just took delivery of a brand new top end Merc FEV 4WD, his summary after 3 months, "Piece of crap, I want my money back".

You pay all that money, and it's a lot like $180K, and the thing breaks down and is off the road for a week at a time twice in the first 3 months. No genuine local support, technicians coming in from OS, so he's gone back to diesel.

I'm not sure if it's better to wait for Hydrogen 4WD if you want to go green, it's already working reliably in buses and trucks, you just need more filling options to appear and they will eventually.

For me waiting for a reliable PHEV might be a long wait, when the first ones come out they'll struggle. A mate just took delivery of a brand new top end Merc FEV 4WD, his summary after 3 months, "Piece of crap, I want my money back".

You pay all that money, and it's a lot like $180K, and the thing breaks down and is off the road for a week at a time twice in the first 3 months. No genuine local support, technicians coming in from OS, so he's gone back to diesel.

I'm not sure if it's better to wait for Hydrogen 4WD if you want to go green, it's already working reliably in buses and trucks, you just need more filling options to appear and they will eventually.

All I’ve heard about Chinese ev is that they’re great, all I’ve heard about euro/yank ev is that they stink

All I’ve heard about Chinese ev is that they’re great, all I’ve heard about euro/yank ev is that they stink

I suspect that is right because of relative judgements. If you have come from a mid-range ICEs like Mazda, Toyota, Hyundai or Kia you are probably going to think the torque and acceleration of the EV is terrific, and the EV comes with much of the fancy gadgetry standard. But it looks to me like people coming off high end vehicles are finding the EV equivalents somewhat sub-par. It sort of makes sense because the high end already had the performance and the features that EVs bring as standard to the low end.

The only thing that worries me about the low end, is that I fear it's going to be a big shock when the batteries start failing. These things aren't like ICEs, the EVs grow old even when you are not using them and you'll be changing the batteries within a decade or so just like you would on an ageing laptop, or you'll upgrade the whole car, in which case it's green credentials bite the dust long before the odometer equals break-even!

I’m hearing from non Australian ev owners that battery degradation is minimal and they are expecting the batteries to outlast the car itself.
Sure, only time will tell but I wouldn’t want a ice petrol with 300,000km+ but these ev owners believe they’ll be getting 600-1000000km, if the body lasts

I’m hearing from non Australian ev owners that battery degradation is minimal and they are expecting the batteries to outlast the car itself.
Sure, only time will tell but I wouldn’t want a ice petrol with 300,000km+ but these ev owners believe they’ll be getting 600-1000000km, if the body lasts

I'm afraid it's a fantasy.

It fairly easy to discredit, with what is starting to happen with Tesla's. Not only are they already seeing drop offs in capacity and range, but in places like California they are generating stockpiles of EV waste.

btw., All the EV's cap charge to about 80% of the initially rated capacity, the end users don't see the drop happening until it starts to eat into that 80% region, so the first few years look golden before they come to a cliff edge. I appreciate if you have a small to medium EV city car you might never get to the region that is critical and might not even notice the battery is down 50%, but we were talking about 4WDs.

At the moment, the battery industry is a bit like SolarPV, it's full of cowboys who won't be here in a decade when the warranty claims start rolling in. They build the factories, win the contracts, then sell the business to your pension fund!

For me waiting for a reliable PHEV might be a long wait, when the first ones come out they'll struggle. A mate just took delivery of a brand new top end Merc FEV 4WD, his summary after 3 months, "Piece of crap, I want my money back".

You pay all that money, and it's a lot like $180K, and the thing breaks down and is off the road for a week at a time twice in the first 3 months. No genuine local support, technicians coming in from OS, so he's gone back to diesel.

I'm not sure if it's better to wait for Hydrogen 4WD if you want to go green, it's already working reliably in buses and trucks, you just need more filling options to appear and they will eventually.

Care to elaborate on piece of crap??

The car will be on a 3 year lease which will then be passed onto the wife while i get a new 3 year lease and the cycle continues of hand me downs. With the oldest one getting sold.
My worry is, by the time it gets to that 6 year mark, so much in the industry will have changed that it could be a piece of scrap and that's about it.
That could be if it's diesel or if it's an ev which is superseded by a better tech by then.
It could be because the car is close to its of life or its technology is or its taxed out of existence with rising fuel costs....or simple much better running costs from an equivalent.

There doesn't seem to be a clear path for any one area as there have been no governmental  certainty in our next direction as a society.

Do you buy vhs or beta or hold out for laser disc? Only to be made redundant by DVD and then streaming?

I’m hearing from non Australian ev owners that battery degradation is minimal and they are expecting the batteries to outlast the car itself.
Sure, only time will tell but I wouldn’t want a ice petrol with 300,000km+ but these ev owners believe they’ll be getting 600-1000000km, if the body lasts

Yes, most EV manufacturers guarantee batteries for 8 years/160,000km and informed estimates suggest that they'll last 10-20 years, but with performance diminishing more rapidly after the 10 year mark.  However, EV batteries will degrade more quickly if exposed to temperatures below 0C and above 27C.  Clearly, that will present problems for Australian users, but not Tesla owners as their batteries are protected by a thermal management system.  Fast charging also degrades batteries.

There's an interesting blog about a cove towing a caravan around Australia with a Tesla.  It is a specially designed pop-up type caravan rather than the over GCM monstrosities many folk seem to tow.  He's having a ball and no issues ... yet.

TV "personality" Craig "Macca" McGowan recently gained publicity by exposing a "diesel fueled EV charging station" at Caiguna on the Nullabor.  In fact, the charging station is powered by cooking oil from the roadhouse and diesel is only used to start it during cold weather.   Just more "shouting at each other" as Robert Pepper put it.

If I ever buy another vehicle in my life I will probably strongly consider an EV. As long as my present ICE vehicle keeps going then I'll probably settle for that. At my present  rate of distance covered per year I should be OK.

Care to elaborate on piece of crap?

They would be driving on the freeway in moderate conditions and it would go completely dead and roll to a stop, nothing, not even brake lights or emergency lights. Luckily it wasn't at night, however.

The dealer claimed there was nothing wrong with it, then further investigation from the owner found heaps of similar experiences from other users. The last time the dealer had it, the third time it had cut out, the dealer took it for a test drive and it cutout in traffic, no brake lights the vehicle following behind ran up it's ar5e. So this is a new vehicle, original owner only 3 months old and the dealer has pranged it. So you think it's a replace, no they want to send it for panel beating and repair and give it back 3 - 4 weeks later.

Piece of crap!

If I ever buy another vehicle in my life I will probably strongly consider an EV. As long as my present ICE vehicle keeps going then I'll probably settle for that. At my present  rate of distance covered per year I should be OK.

No big outback trips planned Cookie?

Tesla's battery warranties are a bit like getting the ball replaced in test cricket when it goes out of shape,  you get a refurbished battery with the same wear and tear in terms and years. Also most dont know there is no spare tyre or even dinky spacesaver due to their being no room in most Ev's including Tesla's and you get a tyre repair kit which if you have used them wont work for a lot of people and you will need to call the Tesla tech support to send the repair van. Given the weight of EV's they are also very prone to punctures as Tesla owners will tell you and tyres wear out way quicker with that extra weight and I suspect the extra torque created and you will be looking at a new set of Continentals much sooner than anticipated. Insurance is expensive and Elon Musk hasnt done much for the already poor depreciation value by keep dropping the new car price every time the opposition car makers come out with cheaper vehicles. You would want to be doing a fair few km's a year imo to make them worthwhile and Im with Cookie that I will be keeping my dirty polluting combustion vehicles for a while yet.
I wont be tempted by the cheap Chinese rubbish either even if they are selling well like they are now.....even though they account for close to 60% of the worlds EV's and counting.
If you do have to buy one then Krud has the right idea with the leasing angle and generous Govt subsidies for vehicles below $89K.

Dunno about a lot of that EB.
I know a guy with a Tesla, the suv one, he made it sound like the spare was an option and even up here the Tesla roadside assist is a thing, I don’t know about the battery replacement situation.
I’m on a Thailand forum and the guys with the Chinese ev’s are very happy with them, build, ride, comfort and tech.
The tyre wear if it was ever a major issue, apparently there are tyres designed specifically for ev’s now.
Thats what I hear…

Boss drives a Porsche Taycan Ev.  It's an amazing car.

I've generally heard great things from everyone who has an EV.

I suspect the early adopters won't be dissapointed.  The ones who will be most dissapointed will be when they hit the lower cost higher profit part of the equation.  Whilst their innovating you'll get the odd one that's a lemon but most of them will be fine because all the R and D is going into making them work rather than work cheaply.  Soon you'll get second rate versions hitting the market.

Like any other car really.  This isn't like the first EFI cars where they were different and worse initially.  This is a much bigger disruption. 

No big outback trips planned Cookie?

No, not at this stage DJ. Maybe a road trip or two which I could do in my present vehicle though.

Inverse has a good exploration of EV battery life and replacement costs based on actual data:

https://www.inverse.com/innovation/tesla-battery-life-replacement-cost

The site has many other objective EV articles.

Inverse has a good exploration of EV battery life and replacement costs based on actual data:

https://www.inverse.com/innovation/tesla-battery-life-replacement-cost

The site has many other objective EV articles.

That article gives similar numbers to what the Chinese ev owners are claiming.
Did Tesla tweak their battery chemistry in 2017 or so ?

Good day to get "Greta" the 5L 98 RON guzzler out and give her a good thrashing.

#farktheevs

"According to the Australian Council of Recycling (ACOR), lithium-ion batteries cause at least three fires in recycling streams every day, but the real number of blazes is suspected to be much higher."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-29/lithium-ion-battery-fire-australian-recycling-industry/103380210?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NWvI1daNils

A genuine alternative to EVs?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-29/toyota-hydrogen-cars-future-electric-vehicles-uptake-challenges/103390084?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web

I hope Toyota perseveres ... and the petrochemical industry gets on board to bring down the cost of producing hydrogen.

A genuine alternative to EVs?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-01-29/toyota-hydrogen-cars-future-electric-vehicles-uptake-challenges/103390084?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web

I hope Toyota perseveres ... and the petrochemical industry gets on board to bring down the cost of producing hydrogen.

I think this is where Kruddlers argument is most important.  Which way is the future?  Odds are the car industry doesnt know.

The one thing that the car industry generally agrees on is that driverless vehicles are the future.  To be honest, I hope so.   There is an element of me first selfishness that has pervaded the roads for the last 10 years, where people are seemingly oblivious to driver etiquette and it all results in line jumping, delays, accidents, and general traffic slowdown. 

I think this is where Kruddlers argument is most important.  Which way is the future?  Odds are the car industry doesnt know.

The one thing that the car industry generally agrees on is that driverless vehicles are the future.  To be honest, I hope so.   There is an element of me first selfishness that has pervaded the roads for the last 10 years, where people are seemingly oblivious to driver etiquette and it all results in line jumping, delays, accidents, and general traffic slowdown. 

The thing is that there’s so much investment in EVs that manufacturers and governments don’t want to back another horse.

Hydrogen is earmarked for the next generation of heavy vehicles but Toyota is really the only company promoting the use for light vehicles.

Our environment doesn’t really suit EVs (outside of major population centres) or driverless vehicles; the latter can’t be programmed to deal with kangaroos, emus, etc.

I struggled at first when driving in the UK; the other drivers were incredibly considerate and courteous.  So different to the behaviour of most Aussie drivers 🤔

I think this is where Kruddlers argument is most important.  Which way is the future?  Odds are the car industry doesnt know.

The one thing that the car industry generally agrees on is that driverless vehicles are the future.  To be honest, I hope so.   There is an element of me first selfishness that has pervaded the roads for the last 10 years, where people are seemingly oblivious to driver etiquette and it all results in line jumping, delays, accidents, and general traffic slowdown.

Yep.

This is where the government need to do their homework, and IMO they are dropping the ball.

If you wanna make hydrogen the 'next big thing' then a good way to start is to try and retrofit existing petrol stations with the ability to have hydrogen fuelling there. Don't need to build brand new filling stations, use what we have.
As the hydrogen uptake gets more prominent, you could phase out pertrol and deisel more ad more at these stations. It can be a gradual changeover that grows with the market.
Now i don't know the logistics of that, but thats for the government to work out.

Of couse, they need to make sure that car manufacturers continue to go down this path as well....which is hard for them to know.
What would/could be beneficial is to build our own cars in Australia! Imagine that, become innovative in manufacturing again, rather than being at the beck and call of the rest of the world.

Imagine if we could manufacture and mine our own hydrogen and hydrogen cars. We'd be future proof. Don't worry about a pandemic cutting us off from the rest of the world again, we'd be self sufficient.

But governments don't think that way. So we are left in limbo.

China have recognized the shortcomings of EVs for heavy transport, long range and Industrial uses and are investing in Hydrogen for those purposes but Hydrogen car sales have collapsed in Europe by 70% and fallen in other parts of the world.
China dont seem as interested in Hydrogen passenger vehicles which is shame even though home sales were the only ones in positive territory in the world in the past year.
https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/transport/shanghai-unveils-target-for-10-000-fuel-cell-vehicles-and-70-hydrogen-refuelling-stations-by-2025/2-1-1490002.

Aussies tend to vote and act with their hip pocket as the major guide and EV's are selling due to the cheap chinese vehicles flooding the market and unless hydrogen vehicles could be made cheaper and have better refuelling infrastructure its hard to see them taking off even if they are better for range, quicker to refill and probably suit Aus conditions better.
The debate reminds me of VHS vs Beta.....the latter was the superior technical product but VHS had the better marketing and won the day...

The debate reminds me of VHS vs Beta.....the latter was the superior technical product but VHS had the better marketing and won the day...

I referenced that the other day.

This is why the government needs to get involved and start their marketing campaign for Hydrogen cars now.....before its too late.

The government just needs to come in with heavy discounts on these, and heavier taxes on alternatives just to get it off the ground.....and then it will take off from there.

Yep, within a few short years, people who had bought BETA, had essentially paid $800 for a clock.

It won't be the same thing though.  EV's will be around and infrastructure for them will persist even if hydrogen is the future of motor vehicles.  A bit like gas and regular petrol alongside diesel.  It won't obsolete any one platform to the point where it's a brick. 

I referenced that the other day.

This is why the government needs to get involved and start their marketing campaign for Hydrogen cars now.....before its too late.

The government just needs to come in with heavy discounts on these, and heavier taxes on alternatives just to get it off the ground.....and then it will take off from there.

The Government have thrown their efforts into passenger EV's with generous subsidies as you would know with leasing and I cant see them backing two horses in the same race in terms of supporting infrastructure especially with the lack/dwindling interest in Hydrogen in other parts of the world for passenger cars. Maybe they might get onboard for heavy transport, replacing Diesel vehicles where EV's are still unsuitable at this stage and then if proven in that area might be seen as an alternative in passenger vehicles as well but I doubt it.

If they don't find a clean abundant alternative to lithium ion it won't be long before hydrogen fuel is cheaper.

If they don't find a clean abundant alternative to lithium ion it won't be long before hydrogen fuel is cheaper.

https://dialogochino.net/en/extractive-industries/38662-explainer-the-opportunities-and-challenges-of-the-lithium-industry
China screwing Chile royally who would have thought that?
500,000 gallons of water to produce 1 tonne of Lithium?...how is that sustainable in some of those arid lithium rich countries?...

The Government have thrown their efforts into passenger EV's with generous subsidies as you would know with leasing and I cant see them backing two horses in the same race in terms of supporting infrastructure especially with the lack/dwindling interest in Hydrogen in other parts of the world for passenger cars. Maybe they might get onboard for heavy transport, replacing Diesel vehicles where EV's are still unsuitable at this stage and then if proven in that area might be seen as an alternative in passenger vehicles as well but I doubt it.

You can back a horse, but you don't have to continue to back it if you can see it is no good.
As has been mentioned, lithium is somewhat of a temporary solution with the cost and rarity set to cause a while range of problems down the line.

Especially in this country, the wide open spaces and nothingness that envelopes most of it means the range of bevs simply doesn't work as well as it does oversees.  "Last fuel for 500km" is not an uncommon sign to see out bush. What hope to bevs have with that?

Using the most abundant element in the universe should be a no brainer.... but it seems you need a little bit of brains to see that, which excludes the majority of the decision makers in parliament

You can back a horse, but you don't have to continue to back it if you can see it is no good.
As has been mentioned, lithium is somewhat of a temporary solution with the cost and rarity set to cause a while range of problems down the line.

Especially in this country, the wide open spaces and nothingness that envelopes most of it means the range of bevs simply doesn't work as well as it does oversees.  "Last fuel for 500km" is not an uncommon sign to see out bush. What hope to bevs have with that?

Using the most abundant element in the universe should be a no brainer.... but it seems you need a little bit of brains to see that, which excludes the majority of the decision makers in parliament

You are massively overstating the charging “issues”, a Tesla driver prior to xmas circumnavigated Australia in 10 days, he’s done it a couple of times, I think his previous record was 14 days or such.
The charging infrastructure is massively expanding and there certainly are not many 500km stretches of road without fuel left in Australia and quite a few ev are now more than capable of 500km.

You are massively overstating the charging “issues”, a Tesla driver prior to xmas circumnavigated Australia in 10 days, he’s done it a couple of times, I think his previous record was 14 days or such.
The charging infrastructure is massively expanding and there certainly are not many 500km stretches of road without fuel left in Australia and quite a few ev are now more than capable of 500km.

OK, let me put it this way.

Go on a road trip. Go stop at one of those petrol stations on the highway that has a maccas and what not. Go look at how long those lines are for getting fuel. Work out how long it currently takes people to pull up, fuel up, and get moving. Say 5mins?

Now, if everyone driving a petrol/diesel car switches to BEVs, assuming they get the same distances as petrol/diesel by then. How long will it take them to get to 50%, 80% 100%? How long will all those backed up cars behind them have to wait now? If each station has a 30min charge time and even if that charge station has double the capacity of existing stations, peoples charge/wait time would balloon out while they are waiting for their spot....and obviously more time charging.
Stops would take say 6 times longer.....IF you could get a spot to begin with. If you are at capacity, you could be waiting hours to get a charging spot. This is what will happen with increasing takeup of BEVs. Not too mention the population and general traffic users will also continue to increase compounding the problem.

Currently there are not that many charging stations and not that many cars. However, if everybody who uses an ICE car now changed to BEV, the infastructure will need to increase to greater what it is now in these areas to get the same result. (wait times).

OR....
You go Hyrdrogen and none of the above is a problem. ;)

OK, let me put it this way.

Go on a road trip. Go stop at one of those petrol stations on the highway that has a maccas and what not. Go look at how long those lines are for getting fuel. Work out how long it currently takes people to pull up, fuel up, and get moving. Say 5mins?

Now, if everyone driving a petrol/diesel car switches to BEVs, assuming they get the same distances as petrol/diesel by then. How long will it take them to get to 50%, 80% 100%? How long will all those backed up cars behind them have to wait now? If each station has a 30min charge time and even if that charge station has double the capacity of existing stations, peoples charge/wait time would balloon out while they are waiting for their spot....and obviously more time charging.
Stops would take say 6 times longer.....IF you could get a spot to begin with. If you are at capacity, you could be waiting hours to get a charging spot. This is what will happen with increasing takeup of BEVs. Not too mention the population and general traffic users will also continue to increase compounding the problem.

Currently there are not that many charging stations and not that many cars. However, if everybody who uses an ICE car now changed to BEV, the infastructure will need to increase to greater what it is now in these areas to get the same result. (wait times).

OR....
You go Hyrdrogen and none of the above is a problem. ;)

There's not going to be an instantaneous swap over from ICE to EV and the infrastructure could very well keep pace with demand.  It's likely that motels and other accommodation will offer overnight charging (which is better for battery life) if the demand is there.

Meanwhile, there are only about a dozen hydrogen refuelling stations across the nation.  That includes the one owned by Toyota in Melbourne, and that can only produce enough hydrogen about a dozen cars each day.  Swinburne and CSIRO have just built a $2.5M plant but our Governments are only spending $160M on hydrogen refuelling as opposed to $500M for EV charging infrastructure.  I guess that reflects current demand rather than future needs.

Toyota's Andrew Willis says a lack of refuelling infrastructure is holding up wider adoption of HICE vehicles (I just made that acronym up); "It's growing, but it's still limited. We can't introduce a car to market that you can't refuel. Refuelling is one of the key barriers to the growth in the [sales/leasing] volumes."

Toyota's refuelling station separates hydrogen from oxygen in water by electrolysis using its own solar generated electricity and electricity from the grid.  The hydrogen is stored as a gas at sub-zero temperatures and cars are refuelled with a nozzle similar to that used for LPG vehicles.  I'm not across the technology or the costs but I assume that it would be feasible to have similar but larger scale refuelling stations if not at every servo, then at all of those with the capacity to generate renewable electricity. Cheaper electricity is required to reduce the cost of hydrogen to an affordable amount.

Of the fleet of 52 zero-emission buses Victoria is trialling, two are powered by hydrogen fuel cells.  However, the hydrogen is "grey" as it is produced by burning natural gas rather than electricity from renewable sources.  Of course, brown coal and natural gas is still used to provide some of the electricity that's charging the EV buses.

There's not going to be an instantaneous swap over from ICE to EV and the infrastructure could very well keep pace with demand.  It's likely that motels and other accommodation will offer overnight charging (which is better for battery life) if the demand is there.

Meanwhile, there are only about a dozen hydrogen refuelling stations across the nation.  That includes the one owned by Toyota in Melbourne, and that can only produce enough hydrogen about a dozen cars each day.  Swinburne and CSIRO have just built a $2.5M plant but our Governments are only spending $160M on hydrogen refuelling as opposed to $500M for EV charging infrastructure.  I guess that reflects current demand rather than future needs.

Toyota's Andrew Willis says a lack of refuelling infrastructure is holding up wider adoption of HICE vehicles (I just made that acronym up); "It's growing, but it's still limited. We can't introduce a car to market that you can't refuel. Refuelling is one of the key barriers to the growth in the [sales/leasing] volumes."

Toyota's refuelling station separates hydrogen from oxygen in water by electrolysis using its own solar generated electricity and electricity from the grid.  The hydrogen is stored as a gas at sub-zero temperatures and cars are refuelled with a nozzle similar to that used for LPG vehicles.  I'm not across the technology or the costs but I assume that it would be feasible to have similar but larger scale refuelling stations if not at every servo, then at all of those with the capacity to generate renewable electricity. Cheaper electricity is required to reduce the cost of hydrogen to an affordable amount.

Of the fleet of 52 zero-emission buses Victoria is trialling, two are powered by hydrogen fuel cells.  However, the hydrogen is "grey" as it is produced by burning natural gas rather than electricity from renewable sources.  Of course, brown coal and natural gas is still used to provide some of the electricity that's charging the EV buses.

I dont disagree with anything you are saying.

My point is, that do we 'stick with BEVs' simply because they started first?
Sure the money is being spent there and the technology is largely proven all over the world.
But in a pure environmental / long term option, IMO the hydrogen is the horse to bet on....or at least the horse we should be putting our efforts into training up.

The only problem is the powers that be.

Things will get bad first, economically and environmentally, then the two forms of nuclear will become the only solution, at which time desalination and hydrogen go on to save the planet.

Airlines are already looking long term for bulk energy sources to generate green hydrogen, transport for both road and rail will head the same route.

Capillary pipelines will branch out transporting hydrogen at low cost in a carrier medium which gets split at the end user local using zero carbon energy sources. At which time HEV becomes king.

OK, let me put it this way.

Go on a road trip. Go stop at one of those petrol stations on the highway that has a maccas and what not. Go look at how long those lines are for getting fuel. Work out how long it currently takes people to pull up, fuel up, and get moving. Say 5mins?

Now, if everyone driving a petrol/diesel car switches to BEVs, assuming they get the same distances as petrol/diesel by then. How long will it take them to get to 50%, 80% 100%? How long will all those backed up cars behind them have to wait now? If each station has a 30min charge time and even if that charge station has double the capacity of existing stations, peoples charge/wait time would balloon out while they are waiting for their spot....and obviously more time charging.
Stops would take say 6 times longer.....IF you could get a spot to begin with. If you are at capacity, you could be waiting hours to get a charging spot. This is what will happen with increasing takeup of BEVs. Not too mention the population and general traffic users will also continue to increase compounding the problem.

Currently there are not that many charging stations and not that many cars. However, if everybody who uses an ICE car now changed to BEV, the infastructure will need to increase to greater what it is now in these areas to get the same result. (wait times).

OR....
You go Hyrdrogen and none of the above is a problem. ;)

I guess if you consider that we’ve had “real” evs for about 10 years now.
If you go back to the start of the ice revolution, did we have vehicles with the range of today’s cars ?
Did we have the network of service stations that we have today ?
No, they grew with the market (demand).
I totally get your point about charging times but my understanding is that 30mins gets most cars back up over 80% and on the road.
I believe battery tech will reduce that charge time over the next 5-10 years.
I suspect that if you were to talk to actual ev owners you would feel a lot more assured about the vehicles, though the decent owners will still say that ev are not for everyone (yet ?)
I recall you saying in the past that in your work you’re a very high km driver each day ? If that’s still the case you’d probably be preferring the swap and go batteries, are they happening in Australia yet ? 🤔

https://www.drive.com.au/caradvice/used-electric-car-prices-fall-after-two-years-data-finds/

Maybe one EV brand to avoid...
https://www.carexpert.com.au/opinion/why-polestar-is-destined-for-failure

https://www.drive.com.au/caradvice/used-electric-car-prices-fall-after-two-years-data-finds/

As the article said, its hard to make sense of those figures without more data, but there is a couple things seem to be at play.

People selling used EVs are taking longer to sell, and they are averaging a lot less value compared to the others. This to me suggests that these ones for sale are put up at an overinflated price, which is why they are not selling. They eventually have to drop the price to below what they'd expect, just to cut their losses. Which makes sense with the data as a possible reason.

However, it also states there is very limited data (thus supply) of used EVs on the market. That SHOULD mean that a lack of supply yields an increased in demand and thus drives prices up....not down.

Ultimately, the only scenario that makes sense is that people simply do not want used EVs. You which would think that it would have to be at least in part due to their 'scrap value' after 10 years when the battery life is suggested to be next to useless.
The people who can afford new cars don't keep cars until they die, they just churn them over and upgrade to the newer models every 2-3-4 years.
The people who can't afford new cars, want something that they can rely on for the long term. It appears EVs are not that and people are voted with their wallet.

As the article said, its hard to make sense of those figures without more data, but there is a couple things seem to be at play.

People selling used EVs are taking longer to sell, and they are averaging a lot less value compared to the others. This to me suggests that these ones for sale are put up at an overinflated price, which is why they are not selling. They eventually have to drop the price to below what they'd expect, just to cut their losses. Which makes sense with the data as a possible reason.

However, it also states there is very limited data (thus supply) of used EVs on the market. That SHOULD mean that a lack of supply yields an increased in demand and thus drives prices up....not down.

Ultimately, the only scenario that makes sense is that people simply do not want used EVs. You which would think that it would have to be at least in part due to their 'scrap value' after 10 years when the battery life is suggested to be next to useless.
The people who can afford new cars don't keep cars until they die, they just churn them over and upgrade to the newer models every 2-3-4 years.
The people who can't afford new cars, want something that they can rely on for the long term. It appears EVs are not that and people are voted with their wallet.

Or the relative newness of the tech and most people’s ignorance of the pros and cons of that tech means that at the moment people are conservative when looking at a second hand ev and that’s not unreasonable.
They’ve got a wait and see mentality.

Unless you are a conservationist and wanting to do your bit for the environment you wouldnt buy an EV in terms of saving money, the initial expense and depreciation just dont make it viable.
Saying all that, the best selling car in the world in 2023 was the Tesla Model Y.....
https://www.carsales.com.au/editorial/details/tesla-model-y-ev-was-the-worlds-top-selling-vehicle-in-2023-144311/

re: Second hand EV's..its all about the tech especially in modern cars and in 3-4 years you expect change and no one is going to pay big money for old tech with emphasis on old battery technology. EV's to the average punter are still an experiment especially the cheap Chinese variety and I can see a lot of EV's ending up as scrap rather than becoming 2-3 owner cars like we have been used to in Australia over the years..

For most Tesla buyers it's the hope of one day being chauffeured around, it has little to do with the environment, the environment is just an excuse!

For most Tesla buyers it's the hope of one day being chauffeured around, it has little to do with the environment, the environment is just an excuse!

Standard MO for lefties. Find some BS that suits a narrative and latch onto it. Forget science, facts, stick to the BS and she'll be right mate.

Aside from a prius are there any other ev's old enough to be sold second hand?   I would have thought most ev owners would be "new" owners ergo very few would be for sale second hand and the ones that are would be "like new".

Either way I'd buy an ICE vehicle if you weren't sure.  They'll be here for 20 more years at least IMHO.

Aside from a prius are there any other ev's old enough to be sold second hand?   I would have thought most ev owners would be "new" owners ergo very few would be for sale second hand and the ones that are would be "like new".

Either way I'd buy an ICE vehicle if you weren't sure.  They'll be here for 20 more years at least IMHO.

Not an unreasonable comment, certainly better than “I don’t like Greta”

Aside from a prius are there any other ev's old enough to be sold second hand?   I would have thought most ev owners would be "new" owners ergo very few would be for sale second hand and the ones that are would be "like new".

Either way I'd buy an ICE vehicle if you weren't sure.  They'll be here for 20 more years at least IMHO.

I think that your point about most EV owners not wanting to sell their new cars is right Thry. Leased vehicles might be different and fleet vehicles will be coming on to the used car market regularly.

Government fleet vehicles are replaced after three years or so.  There will be thousands of ex-government HEVs in private ownership and many hundreds of ex-government EVs entering the used car market.

The sale of ex-government vehicles has always been part of the strategy to increase the number of EVs in private ownership.

https://thedriven.io/2024/01/08/does-australia-have-a-viable-second-hand-ev-market-yet/#:~:text=Looking%20a%20little%20deeper%2C%20196%2C000,of%20its%20second%2Dhand%20listings.

In the USA the used EV market is also trivial, they tend to be scrapping EVs for parts as a more profitable option over reselling.

I presume that process is largely driven by Tesla putting a huge premium on genuine spare parts.

In the USA the used EV market is also trivial, they tend to be scrapping EVs for parts as a more profitable option over reselling.

I presume that process is largely driven by Tesla putting a huge premium on genuine spare parts.

Who are you claiming is doing the scrapping ?

The US has been actively anti ev until Trump was kicked to the kerb, and by reports most of their ev (like Europe) are expensive and poor quality.
Really not sure why anyone would use ev and USA in the same sentence.

Who are you claiming is doing the scrapping ?

The US has been actively anti ev until Trump was kicked to the kerb, and by reports most of their ev (like Europe) are expensive and poor quality.
Really not sure why anyone would use ev and USA in the same sentence.

The USA was still Tesla's biggest market in the most recent survey, but I believe it is predicted China will pass it this year.

In the USA there is a rapidly growing EV wrecking sector with most of it happening on the US West coast, I believe some of this is also being driven by the laws of various states like California.

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2023-china-ev-graveyards/#:~:text=On%20the%20outskirts%20of%20the,in%20partnership%20with%20Outrider%20Foundation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FgRN5t8KRT8

You're being mischievous @ElwoodBlues1‍ :D

We all know that EVs are ultra-green, earning back their carbon credits many times over long before they are dumped as eWaste! ::)

I wonder what rating the EPA would give that site if the state government suddenly decided to dig a tunnel under it? :o

An OS business associate was showing me his new home last week, lovely engineered stone floors and benches. I mentioned that stuff was safe in his home but had been banned in Oz due to dust in workshops. He just laughed. You see his main gig is making SolarPV and he said he knows Australia is overloaded with warehouses full of old panels piling up on the promise of recycling. He said in his area the potential residues for old SolarPVs mean they are rated more toxic than the engineered stone!

I have to wonder what is really in a battery, I know what is supposed to be in them, but there is likely a huge difference between the theoretical and reality.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ngFhER3r4J4

Just what we need, another option to muddy the waters.

Does an ammonia powered car potentially run off urine?  😄

Jokes aside kruddler the first car of this type would be 5 plus years away.  At least one financed vehicle cycle away.

It shouldn't change what you do today.  I imagine that there will be am initiative to help get the last ICE car holders onto the next platform if it's required.  I also think that as petrol and diesel demand wanes the price of it here will drop, as the demand for it does unless they restrict supply to keep the price of it buoyant.

Does an ammonia powered car potentially run off urine?  😄

Jokes aside kruddler the first car of this type would be 5 plus years away.  At least one financed vehicle cycle away.

It shouldn't change what you do today.  I imagine that there will be am initiative to help get the last ICE car holders onto the next platform if it's required.  I also think that as petrol and diesel demand wanes the price of it here will drop, as the demand for it does unless they restrict supply to keep the price of it buoyant.

Nah i know its years away, i'm just hoping for some certainty in the future, whichever way it goes.

I think i've settled on the diesel Everest and i'll deal with the consequences later.

My worry is that cars depreciate in value enough as it is, i don't want something to depreciate to the point its just worth scrap, simply because new tech has made it obsolete almost overnight. As i said, i'm thinking 6+years into the future which is how long i expect to have this new car

Nah i know its years away, i'm just hoping for some certainty in the future, whichever way it goes.

I think i've settled on the diesel Everest and i'll deal with the consequences later.

My worry is that cars depreciate in value enough as it is, i don't want something to depreciate to the point its just worth scrap, simply because new tech has made it obsolete almost overnight. As i said, i'm thinking 6+years into the future which is how long i expect to have this new car

thats fair.

I dont worry too much about the future value.  I've only owned a few cars.  I'm 41 and been driving my diesel mondeo since 2008 when I got it new.  Previous cars were second handers.

The mondeo isn't unreliable but it's time for it to go shortly.  It's worth what it's worth and I'm going to trade it in because private selling is annoying and time consuming and usually it's not worth the hassle. 

The next car, depreciation is what it is.  It might not go the distance anyway.

It's a great technology but as far as I can tell, ammonia is likely to be just another interim step to hydrogen.

Actually, ammonia is proposed as a transport medium for hydrogen, and in this regard the ammonia engine is really just delivering hydrogen power without the need to split hydrogen from the ammonia carrier as the pre-cursor process. Ammonia is easy to produce and transport, but once large scale hydrogen production gets underway ammonia will also become redundant, there will be no point consuming energy to create ammonia as the intermediate process from something like hydrogen sourced from seawater.

Perhaps ammonia is a great interim process for the hydrogen from coal process, which has some merit as an interim technology. I believe the Japanese are heavy into R&D in this regard, and that makes sense because they are an island nation dependant on imported energy resources. No one solution fits everybody.

FWIW, there is some rather silly opposition to ammonia and hydrogen on the basis of releasing nitrogen, nitrogen that makes up almost 70% of our atmosphere is apparently now a bad greenhouse gas! ::) The stupidity of that claim is even worse when you learn that the bulk of the nitrogen used in the production of the ammonia is drawn from the atmosphere. It's a circular process. The production of ammonia requires a green no carbon energy source like the sun, nuclear or geothermal to run. The big problem is that the public as a whole is rather stupid, and believe claims designed to oppose one green technology against the other.

Currently they use energy and resources to create ammonia that are not 100% carbon emissions free, which is why they only rate ammonia engines at up to about 90% carbon emissions free. Could it get to 100%, I don't think so because in real world scenarios there are no zero waste procedures.

The big problem is that the public as a whole is rather stupid

This is where governments are failing.

Take away from the first step of constant slashing from the education sector first, as thats a long term solution that is already overdue.

What they need to do is educate everybody as a whole into the hows and whys of science as a whole what everything means and what are the overall pros and cons of going down each particular path. Not just in terms of long term transportation, but energy as a whole.

Australia is largely seen as a smart country with brilliant advances coming from our residents.
However, that is an elite group of people driving that. The majority of us, don't have enough understanding of how basic scientific concepts work. How basic mathematical modelling works and how to interpret data correctly. Majority of people reduce some of the most complex simulations in the world to whatever their favourite youtuber puts out as a sound bite. "Dont forget to like and subscribe" is about the most annoying phrase i've ever heard, and i hear it dozens of times a week courtesy of my kids watching youtube non-stop.

This is where governments are failing.

Governments fail because Politicians want to back a winner in a sprint race, and we've a Parliament full of lawyers who have no idea on the technology side of the debate, and almost zero interest in the long term.

Instead we need engineers or scientists, the UK is just starting to correct this at the moment, we need to do more here and faster. But we have to get the engineers and scientists up to speed on dealing with the public.

Over and over again I've witnessed Australian developed technologies fail to commercialise here, only to then head off-shore and become big things a decade later with the proceeds lost to our country. The concept of a loss leader is completely foreign to our small minded politicians, they seem completely ignorant of global scale.

I think we make a mistake keeping them at arms length to investments, maybe we need to do the exact opposite and become like Germany were both politicians and employees profit from technology developments. They can actually take a vested interest in the projects they manage, it changes the dynamic.

"Dont forget to like and subscribe" is about the most annoying phrase i've ever heard, and i hear it dozens of times a week courtesy of my kids watching youtube non-stop.

Krudd - can't blame the government for this. Parents are also responsible for education and what kids do during spare time.  Certainly not having a go at you or your parenting!

Krudd - can't blame the government for this. Parents are also responsible for education and what kids do during spare time.  Certainly not having a go at you or your parenting!

Believe me, i try and limit youtube and the nonsense channels as much as i can, but i'm fighting with 1 arm behind my back as the missus is less strict on the matter.
Its not just from my kids though, its all my kids mates and friends kids etc.

Absolutely parents have a say in kids and what they watch and how you educate them.
I'm lucky that my friends and our extended family are relatively well educated and many have post graduate qualifications and PHDs etc. I feel for the less educated parents though who don't understand a lot of this stuff, which in turn gets passed down to their kids.

https://www.drive.com.au/news/toyota-committed-to-developing-new-internal-combustion-engines/

Governments fail because Politicians want to back a winner in a sprint race, and we've a Parliament full of lawyers who have no idea on the technology side of the debate, and almost zero interest in the long term.

Instead we need engineers or scientists, the UK is just starting to correct this at the moment, we need to do more here and faster. But we have to get the engineers and scientists up to speed on dealing with the public.

Over and over again I've witnessed Australian developed technologies fail to commercialise here, only to then head off-shore and become big things a decade later with the proceeds lost to our country. The concept of a loss leader is completely foreign to our small minded politicians, they seem completely ignorant of global scale.

I think we make a mistake keeping them at arms length to investments, maybe we need to do the exact opposite and become like Germany were both politicians and employees profit from technology developments. They can actually take a vested interest in the projects they manage, it changes the dynamic.

This is more of a case of auto companies trying to extract maximum dollar from customers and win/keep market share from their competition. Do car makers want to make the world greener, save the environment....No imho, they just want to make the most money they can and will adjust, twist their thinking to whats financially better for them.
Toyota have lost the EV race to the Chinese and are now trying or backing every other fuel sourced engine to try and get a point of difference to set them apart and keep the money rolling in and their position as No 1 in the world.
ie https://www.drive.com.au/news/toyota-committed-to-developing-new-internal-combustion-engines/......its hydrogen one day, ammonia the next and now full circle back to ICE...
 I dont envy Kruddler having to choose what car for his wife and how its powered to buy next because Governments and Carmakers are not on the same page and future values, cost/supply of fuels, what infrastructure will prevail are all unknown quantities and I can see why DJC has decided to keep his V8 Landcruiser and not involve himself in overthinking it all.
We are different to the USA and Europe so we cant take a lead on what they are doing and China who have flooded their own country with EV's are starting to retreat from production.
I dont think the public are stupid, more naive thinking that Governments and Carmakers care about them, their futures and the Environment.

Whilst I agree that Government and carmakers don’t care about the environment, government at least has the role of setting the agenda.
It shouldn’t be backing horses as such but mandating emissions etc.
The market can then move where they want, this will bring innovation.

Believe me, i try and limit youtube and the nonsense channels as much as i can, but i'm fighting with 1 arm behind my back as the missus is less strict on the matter.
Its not just from my kids though, its all my kids mates and friends kids etc.

Yep - it's hard to get them away from devices.

Whilst I agree that Government and carmakers don’t care about the environment, government at least has the role of setting the agenda.
It shouldn’t be backing horses as such but mandating emissions etc.
The market can then move where they want, this will bring innovation.

...and thats the barrow i was pushing before.

Put your foot down and make some big calls, and MAKE it happen.

I can't recall the specifics but there was some talk about Canberra supposedly banning new ICE vehicles from 2025 or some nonsense.
I don't know if that is still a thing, or what the end result of all that was, but im sure that they've bitten off more than they can chew if that is indeed a target they are chasing.

If the government offered some huge financial incentives to big business to set up new technology, manufacturing and infrastructure to fast track hydrogen vehicles for example, then you might have someone like Toyota want to take up that challenge.

If you sit on your hands and do nothing....then nothing happens.

We can't stop living while Nero fiddles, we have to make a call, then they can burn us retrospectively.

Whilst I agree that Government and carmakers don’t care about the environment, government at least has the role of setting the agenda.
It shouldn’t be backing horses as such but mandating emissions etc.
The market can then move where they want, this will bring innovation.

There is the expectation that Governments both Fed and State have to help provide and approve infrastructure plus support the means to achieve emission targets by incentives. That does mean choosing a horse as a favourite and making a bet on the future and they have picked EV's. Eg they have pledged 75% of Govt vehicles will be EV vehicles of some description by end 2025
The NT Government are being generous unlike my home state Victoria who are giving residents SFA in comparison going by this information: https://www.novatedleaseaustralia.com.au/electric-cars/ev-incentives.
I believe Hydrogen fuel cell cars are only available to companies in Aus by lease and special order which is a shame which really only leaves EV's and their different varieties as the only option for ordinary punters unless you want to continue down the ICE path.
The Germans are having second thoughts on EV's though and the head of BMW is leading the way.....Mr Zipse didnt tell anyone though he has just done a deal with GWM to supply batteries for his EV beamers....and he wasnt truthful about the lower end of the market either because he knows BYD have entered that part of the market and are starting to sell cars.
https://fortune.com/europe/2024/02/03/germany-electric-vehicle-sales-drop-carmakers-audi-vw-bmw/

The Germans are having second thoughts on EV's though and the head of BMW is leading the way.....Mr Zipse didnt tell anyone though he has just done a deal with GWM to supply batteries for his EV beamers....and he wasnt truthful about the lower end of the market either because he knows BYD have entered that part of the market and are starting to sell cars.
https://fortune.com/europe/2024/02/03/germany-electric-vehicle-sales-drop-carmakers-audi-vw-bmw/

Zipse played the long game, the game that our politicians should be playing, he cut through the hype and really when you ignore the EV hyperbole the choice becomes pretty clear.

In most cases, EV growth comes at the cost of a shift in consumption not a reduction, if we only shift resource consumption to other areas we aren't really becoming zero at all, it's a smokescreen. Where does the energy come from , where do the resources come from, much of it still comes out of the ground even the materials for SolarPV panels. How they attached the word zero to all this stuff is a crime in itself.

If we can take ICE to retrofit with HICE(Hydrogen) or AICE(Ammonia), it means we don't consume more resources replacing perfectly functional cars, engines and transmissions with new. Some will say it can't happen, but it's happened before when LPG became a thing. The trick this time will be not switching from one high carbon emission resource to another high carbon emission limited resource.

Perhaps if Tesla had put their effort into replacing ICEs with Electric Motors, and hot swap batteries instead of built in batteries, things might have worked out better. We already see a growing market in the USA taking the guts out of scrapped Tesla's and retrofitting those guts into classic vehicles. It's hard to imagine it's a thing, but it's is and it is growing on both the personal vehicle and the light transport side. Retrofit hybrid is also another thing, whole fleets similar to UPS, DHL and Fedex are going that way because it makes sense.

There is the expectation that Governments both Fed and State have to help provide and approve infrastructure plus support the means to achieve emission targets by incentives. That does mean choosing a horse as a favourite and making a bet on the future and they have picked EV's. Eg they have pledged 75% of Govt vehicles will be EV vehicles of some description by end 2025
The NT Government are being generous unlike my home state Victoria who are giving residents SFA in comparison going by this information: https://www.novatedleaseaustralia.com.au/electric-cars/ev-incentives.
I believe Hydrogen fuel cell cars are only available to companies in Aus by lease and special order which is a shame which really only leaves EV's and their different varieties as the only option for ordinary punters unless you want to continue down the ICE path.
The Germans are having second thoughts on EV's though and the head of BMW is leading the way.....Mr Zipse didnt tell anyone though he has just done a deal with GWM to supply batteries for his EV beamers....and he wasnt truthful about the lower end of the market either because he knows BYD have entered that part of the market and are starting to sell cars.
https://fortune.com/europe/2024/02/03/germany-electric-vehicle-sales-drop-carmakers-audi-vw-bmw/

As the Toyota spokesperson (quoted in my post from a while back) said, you can’t import FCEVs when there’s no refuelling capacity.

Governments need to sit down with Toyota and Hyundai and agree on import numbers and infrastructure rollout.

As the Toyota spokesperson (quoted in my post from a while back) said, you can’t import FCEVs when there’s no refuelling capacity.

Governments need to sit down with Toyota and Hyundai and agree on import numbers and infrastructure rollout.

Thats fair enough,  you need refuelling infrastructure and it appears Hydrogen will need more commercial coin to make it happen.
This could be a good start....https://www.ampol.com.au/about-ampol/news-and-media/ampol-hyundai-pacific-energy-and-toyota-develop-hydrogen-infrastructure.
Ampol are also equipping their service stations with EV chargers so Energy companies dont mind having a bit each way at this stage.

Mr Bean doesnt like EV's anymore....  Aussies love their big toys, meanwhile the French are weighing up the value of heavy vehicles.
https://news.sky.com/story/mr-bean-actor-rowan-atkinson-blamed-for-slow-electric-car-sales-13065947

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/feb/06/australians-keep-buying-huge-cars-in-huge-numbers-if-we-want-to-cut-emissions-this-cant-go-on

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/paris-suv-parking-cost-could-triple-to-almost-20-per-hour/

Not sure how SUV sizeEV's being heavier due to the added battery weight fare in this parking issue, would have thought an EV would be better for clean Parisian air
but it appears they too will be paying more....very strange thinking imho.

I wonder how our roads will stand up to the increased number of heavier vehicles?

Surely those EV parking taxes are the way around the loss of fuel excise, for now here our politicians are too scared to bill EV owners for the roads, but overseas the EU and UK are finding new and innovative ways to tax EV owners like weight.

I know this because my UK based EV owning mates are going ballistic about the increased fees and charges, they spent years gloating about the money they saved shelling out big dollars on Tesla AWD, now the chickens have come home to roost one of them is even talking about reverting to his fancy ICE ( He couldn't separate from his Lexus LC 500  no matter what the Tesla offered )

https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/design/the-big-reason-not-to-buy-an-ev-now/news-story/81d3d1cc4183b10763376841a75453b6

https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/pollution-caps-set-to-force-car-manufacturers-to-supply-low-emission-alternatives/news-story/d3987e20fa43a551b4d30261c55f1e6b

Bit of old news but relevant to the above...https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12971877/Auto-website-CarExperts-Sydney-Melbourne-road-trip-reveals-shocking-truth-EVs-cheaper-run-petrol-cars.html.

Why would you bother with the hassle of an EV unless the pollution cap scare talk pushes you to buy one and clearly the resale value and plummeting prices of EV's and depreciation means your present EV probably wont ever pay you back the difference between your EV and its equivalent petrol guzzler.

Why would you bother with the hassle of an EV unless the pollution cap scare talk pushes you to buy one and clearly the resale value and plummeting prices of EV's and depreciation means your present EV probably wont ever pay you back the difference between your EV and its equivalent petrol guzzler.

I understand the environmental issues behind people's choice, and also at the moment I understand the removal of bowser shock but that might be transient based on what is happening in Europe and the UK.

What I don't get is that at the moment the political push seems to be to penalise drivers who don't or can't change rather than making the EV economically viable. By viable I mean attainable pricing for a vehicle that has a reasonable level of performance and longevity. In Australia we need more infrastructure for EV and other fuel alternatives, we will probably end up paying taxes anyway, we better push to get the services or we will pay taxes and have to fund the services privately.

Secondly, EVs inflict more wear and tear on roads than ICE vehicles, simply because weight matters and the typical EV is about 30% heavier than it's ICE equivalent. Yet at the moment only ICE vehicles foot the road tax bill mostly via tariffs, in effect all ICE drivers are subsidising EV.

People bag the old Fed and State infrastructure services, but good luck getting a modern corporate to build infrastructure in Australia. The lucky few close to big population densities or major thoroughfares might get it, but regional Australia will be abandoned, if fact it's already being abandoned on some service issues. Take a look at what is happening in regional Australia with gas, electricity and water service charges, and it's not going to get better!

Long term, if nuclear families follow the modern trend, which seems to be two adults with two adult kids staying in or returning to the nest for longer than before, homes will need 15Kw of SolarPV just to avoid drowning in energy charges. For me it could mean the missus, myself, two adult kids and perhaps even an in-law and or grandparent at the one address. Not expecting green or zero carbon energy initiates to deliver cheaper power I'll just organise for my pay packet to be redirected to Untied Energy. Might have to dig out the old unicycle, I think my helmet still has a few cable ties in place.

I understand the environmental issues behind people's choice, and also at the moment I understand the removal of bowser shock but that might be transient based on what is happening in Europe and the UK.

What I don't get is that at the moment the political push seems to be to penalise drivers who don't or can't change rather than making the EV economically viable. By viable I mean attainable pricing for a vehicle that has a reasonable level of performance and longevity. In Australia we need more infrastructure for EV and other fuel alternatives, we will probably end up paying taxes anyway, we better push to get the services or we will pay taxes and have to fund the services privately.

Secondly, EVs inflict more wear and tear on roads than ICE vehicles, simply because weight matters and the typical EV is about 30% heavier than it's ICE equivalent. Yet at the moment only ICE vehicles foot the road tax bill mostly via tariffs, in effect all ICE drivers are subsidising EV.

People bag the old Fed and State infrastructure services, but good luck getting a modern corporate to build infrastructure in Australia. The lucky few close to big population densities or major thoroughfares might get it, but regional Australia will be abandoned, if fact it's already being abandoned on some service issues. Take a look at what is happening in regional Australia with gas, electricity and water service charges, and it's not going to get better!

Long term, if nuclear families follow the modern trend, which seems to be two adults with two adult kids staying in or returning to the nest for longer than before, homes will need 15Kw of SolarPV just to avoid drowning in energy charges. For me it could mean the missus, myself, two adult kids and perhaps even an in-law and or grandparent at the one address. Not expecting green or zero carbon energy initiates to deliver cheaper power I'll just organise for my pay packet to be redirected to Untied Energy. Might have to dig out the old unicycle, I think my helmet still has a few cable ties in place.

You will more likely redirecting your money indirectly to China, Hong Kong or Singapore as they will be funding any infrastructure rebuilds and I wouldnt be writing off nuclear either given the spot price of Uranium which has been on the up.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12113647/Chinese-ownership-Australian-energy-assets-Aussies-pay-high-power-prices-China-profits.html
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Global-Nuclear-Power-Generation-to-Hit-an-All-Time-High-in-2025.html#:~:text=The%20comeback%20of%20nuclear%20power,(IEA)%20said%20on%20Wednesday.

https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/design/the-big-reason-not-to-buy-an-ev-now/news-story/81d3d1cc4183b10763376841a75453b6

https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/pollution-caps-set-to-force-car-manufacturers-to-supply-low-emission-alternatives/news-story/d3987e20fa43a551b4d30261c55f1e6b

So all the cars that are popular, that are required as fleet vehicles (Rangers, hilux, everest, prado etc) are the issue. But there is no alternative for any of them right now to buy. So who cops it in the neck? The people that need them. While the car manufacturers collect.

So what will they do?
Push out an alternative that isn't thought through, has plenty of issues, not least of which will be the 'fuel' type used and the problems that occur with it. Be that BEV and the extra pressure that adds on the grid or Hydrogen cars which you can't refuel anywhere yet.

We are trying to run before we walk.
Come up with a step by step plan to phase out ICE vehicles, and go from there.
Don't curse them and then be left scrambling for an alternative.

So all the cars that are popular, that are required as fleet vehicles (Rangers, hilux, everest, prado etc) are the issue. But there is no alternative for any of them right now to buy. So who cops it in the neck? The people that need them. While the car manufacturers collect.

Here is a bloke trying to understand what is going on in the UK / EU market.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZysvgm2_Aw
The interesting thing in this video was the discussion about battery degradation, I notice that degradation is worse in hot environments and by hot they mean regions that can have more than 5 consecutive days above 27°C! :o

I realise this guy is often talking a lot about high end cars, but cheaper models won't be generally be better. However, his figures would be ultra-relevant to 4WD EV.

Here's another contribution from Robert Pepper:

"The EV Pendulum

At first, EVs had short range, were expensive and short-ranged with few charging points, so largely useless. The Pendulum of Opinion was firmly Negative.

Then, EVs became cheaper, longer range, more charging options available. Takeup-rates jumped, albeit from a low base. Carmakers stopped developing ICE. Norway went EV. The Pendulum swung the other way, as some people began proclaiming the future is pure electric, ICE will be dead in five minutes, and heaping scorn on those ignorant Luddites who dared to differ, or even not wholeheartedly back the New Way.

Now the Pendulum is swinging back the other way.  EV prices are being slashed, people are looking at cost-effectiveness and not finding the answers they want.

The reality has never been indicated by the Pendulum which swings from extreme to extreme.  EVs have never been useless, but they have never been the sole answer to mobility either. 

The reality now is that EVs are far more mature than ever, and are a very real and useful mobility option for many people right now, and that number will increase into the future. There will only be more EVs on our roads into the future, not fewer.  But humanity has never used a single source for its propulsion needs and I can't see that changing with electric - synth fuels, hydrogen all have their place now and for the foreseeable future.

So don't believe the gloating "EVs are dead" articles you see any more than the zealous "EVs are the only way forwards" pieces.  Those articles are often echo-chambers, playing to their bases and also serve to inflame the emotions of those in the other camp. You can tell if something is EV-biased because it will either contain no criticism of EVs, or not admit any of their advantages."

Here is a bloke trying to understand what is going on in the UK / EU market.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZysvgm2_Aw
The interesting thing in this video was the discussion about battery degradation, I notice that degradation is worse in hot environments and by hot they mean regions that can have more than 5 consecutive days above 27°C! :o

I realise this guy is often talking a lot about high end cars, but cheaper models won't be generally be better. However, his figures would be ultra-relevant to 4WD EV.

Ultimately, he seems to mirror my thoughts on the matter.

What we've got is not good enough. We are rushing into things without any real direction or understanding of it other than the effect of 'green washing'.

Costs plummetting once you drive it off the lot.
Efficiency falling off a cliff simply by the location you are driving and the charging style you use.

So turning what he is saying into how Australia uses these things.....
1. We are a big country, so any long trip would require plenty of charging. Unless you wanna stay in a spot for hours, you will use the fast charge option....which will ruin your battery the more you use it. If you wanna go to sydney, an 8 hour drive could turn into a weekend drive so you can protect your battery.....which is not feasible.
2. We are a hell of a lot hotter here than UK or scandanavia (wherever Bjorn was from i cannot recall) so we automatically get more degredation even if we slow charge our vehicles.
3. Even if we somehow manage to avoid parts 1 and 2 above, we are throwing money away simply by the depreciation these vehicles have and the almost non-existent 2nd hand market and overall life these vehicles have.

.......and all for a 7% reduction in CO2 emmissions, IF everyone has one and IF all the power consumed is renewable to begin with......which it really isn't even close.

So maybe its time to stop, take stock and focus on something else (hello hydrogen) which eliminates every one of the above problems and is better for the environment than these cars to begin with.


One thing i thought about which i don't think has been mentioned anywhere in this debate is Lithium......and the flow on effects of that.
Ultimately, Lithium is a finite resource. It will run out. Supply and demand ensures the price will skyrocket.
The more lithium we use in cars, the less we have for other batteries. Anything rechargable these days basically has lithium in it. Phones, AA/AAA batteries, cordless power tools and cordless outdoor power equipment, battery walls.
The cost of all of that will go up the rarer lithium becomes.

Maybe that won't happen for 200 years, or 20 years, maybe it happens in 2 years time.....don't know, but it will happen.
Why not ditch the excessive amount of batteries in these poor perfoming EVs for things that we don't have a better alternative for?

What happens when we run out of lithium. We have to redesign half our electronic equipment to alternatives.....that may be worse off and less efficient?

There is lots of R&D going into non-lithium based solutions, some are potentially cheaper, lighter, pack in more energy and recharge faster, some may even be greener which isn't hard, but at the moment the new technologies have no longevity. Primarily because the new technologies haven't been around long enough yet to know exactly how the batteries age and how to fix the problems, other than predictions in simulation. Even so if they can make them much much cheaper if the weight is reduced and the longevity is 50% they might still be viable.

The longevity issue is not too bad with lithium because it's been around for decades already, they know from laptops and power tools all about how batteries age, and EV batteries are largely just massive assemblies of the very same. (Which is a why I'm so surprised people swallow the "batteries are for life" brigade.) Sure the lithium ion lose capacity, but generally how it happens is a known known.