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Re: Development and Recruiting

Reply #15
Turns out we have nothing to worry about. Sticks announced yesterday that our list is very good and that we have all the right people in place. So, all is good at CFC land, phew...
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: Development and Recruiting

Reply #16
OK, here is a new take on the development and recruiting side of things...

I have 2 lists, with 9 players in each.

Top 20 draft picks drafted by CARLTON and still on Carltons list. (Games played)
Walker (156)
Murphy (155)
Gibbs (145)
Kreuzer (99)
Yarran (74)
Hampson (63)
Lucas (31)
Watson (11)
Menzel (2)

TOTAL: 736


Now here is another list (games played)
Betts (174)
Carrazzo (160)
Jamison (101)
Garlett (90)
Joseph (72)
Tuohy (44)
Curnow (41)
Ellard (38)
White (26)

Total: 746


So what is the second list? They are all players who started off as rookies!

So, i pose this question to you...
If we have got more games out of our rookies then we have out of our top 20 picks, does that mean we have poor development or excellent development?  ???

Our rookies are developing.
Our Top 20 picks are not ?


In fairness there are a few more (former) rookies with less games on our list....Casboult (13), Bell (11), Cachia (9), Okeefe (3), Dale (2). Having said that we only recently got rid of both Thornton (188) and Ohailpin (81) who were both rookies compared to Russell (116) who was a top 20 draft pick as well. So the pattern continues.

Re: Development and Recruiting

Reply #17
That's the mystery kruds. The rookies come on pretty well but those second round plus picks seem to be okay at best. You can't get them all right but it feels our strike rate with those players is poor.

Re: Development and Recruiting

Reply #18
So maybe in the past we put more attention into those we rookie (out of mind out of sight scenario ?), than those in the spotlight with the all eyes gazing upon them....  :-\
Carrots, slower than escargot in garlic sauce !!

Re: Development and Recruiting

Reply #19
I didn't think Betts was a Rookie, I thought he was from the PSD, but I digress...
I think that there will always be some players that come through late and play some games and everyone says "gee how was he missed".  Our games played per pick ratio would be a lot higher for 1st round picks than it would be for rookies or any other draft round, so I am not sure why we are comparing.

What is of a bigger concern to me is that we absolutely have a different structure at the club when we get the guys we get and they don't go on to achieve as much as at other clubs. Only a portion of that can be done to the quality of the footballer, the other element has to be the quality of the football club.
.
Do the following ex-players all stand out as exceptional coaches we would have loved to get out hands on?
Stuart Dew
Leigh Tudor
John Blakey
Henry Playfair (development)
Stuart Maxfield (development)

I can see it right now, if at the same time Sydney signed any of these coaches we had instead signed them... There would have been talk about them being underwhelming signings, yet Sydney know what fits their mold and they go after it.

The following players are recycled players at Sydney
Rhyce Shaw (Twice runner-up B&F, premiership player)
Ted Richards (AA, B&F Runner up, premiership player)
Ben McGlynn (Top 10 B&F, should have been a premiership player, bar finals injury)
Martin Mattner (Premiership player)
Josh Kennedy (AA, B&F Winner, premiership player, top 10 in Brownlow out and out gun!!)
Mitch Morton (premiership player  :o)
Shane Mumford (Shortlist AA, premiership player)


Others to play in last years premiership
Player Drafted
Sam Reid 38 National Draft
Luke Parker 40 National Draft
Adam Goodes 43 National Draft
Ryan O'Keefe 56 National Draft
Alex Johnson 57 National Draft
Craig Bird 58 National Draft
Nick Malceski 64 National Draft
Nick Smith 15 Rookie Draft
Heath Grundy 42 Rookie Draft
Kieran Jack 57 Rookie Draft
Mike Pyke 57 Rookie Draft
That is 17 of last years side traded for (usually for next to nothing) or taken in the round 3 or later of the draft. There has to be one side that is identifying those talents, but there has to be another side that develops them and that is where I think we are letting ourselves down. Sydney has also selected plenty of players that have not gone on to make it as well and overlooked players better than what they have taken, but I would not mind betting that they could have had a number of these players swapped out for others and the ones they took would have had better careers at Sydney. They have a development model and I would suggest they stick quite rigidly to it. The 'no d1ckheads' policy wasn't just a catchphrase it was fair dinkum.
Something at Carlton certainly has to change. We are a club that has not been a genuine 'force' since the 90s and I agree with Roos in saying that I doubt it comes down to recruiting as the key element.

So what is the club doing? It needs to probably scrap the whole 'we are Carlton f*ck the rest' policy, stop with the public statements and just go about getting all of the basics right, all the way through the club. I am sick of watching tripe week after week. Play the Sydney 'moneyball' approach with regards to trying to hit the right recycled players. Just about everyone that has traded to Sydney, they have gotten more out of that player than what they have paid for them.
Goals for 2017
=============
Play the most anti-social football in the AFL


Re: Development and Recruiting

Reply #20
Fair post this one.....Mike Pyke stands out in terms of development...was the biggest dud in the league and couldnt play the game at all but now is No 1 ruck and a very good player who has mastered the basics very well.
The Swans never bottom out and they must be doing something right regardless of any salary cap advantages....

Re: Development and Recruiting

Reply #21
I didn't think Betts was a Rookie, I thought he was from the PSD, but I digress...
I think that there will always be some players that come through late and play some games and everyone says "gee how was he missed".  Our games played per pick ratio would be a lot higher for 1st round picks than it would be for rookies or any other draft round, so I am not sure why we are comparing.

What is of a bigger concern to me is that we absolutely have a different structure at the club when we get the guys we get and they don't go on to achieve as much as at other clubs. Only a portion of that can be done to the quality of the footballer, the other element has to be the quality of the football club.
.
Do the following ex-players all stand out as exceptional coaches we would have loved to get out hands on?
Stuart Dew
Leigh Tudor
John Blakey
Henry Playfair (development)
Stuart Maxfield (development)

I can see it right now, if at the same time Sydney signed any of these coaches we had instead signed them... There would have been talk about them being underwhelming signings, yet Sydney know what fits their mold and they go after it.

The following players are recycled players at Sydney
Rhyce Shaw (Twice runner-up B&F, premiership player)
Ted Richards (AA, B&F Runner up, premiership player)
Ben McGlynn (Top 10 B&F, should have been a premiership player, bar finals injury)
Martin Mattner (Premiership player)
Josh Kennedy (AA, B&F Winner, premiership player, top 10 in Brownlow out and out gun!!)
Mitch Morton (premiership player  :o)
Shane Mumford (Shortlist AA, premiership player)


Others to play in last years premiership
Player Drafted
Sam Reid 38 National Draft
Luke Parker 40 National Draft
Adam Goodes 43 National Draft
Ryan O'Keefe 56 National Draft
Alex Johnson 57 National Draft
Craig Bird 58 National Draft
Nick Malceski 64 National Draft
Nick Smith 15 Rookie Draft
Heath Grundy 42 Rookie Draft
Kieran Jack 57 Rookie Draft
Mike Pyke 57 Rookie Draft
That is 17 of last years side traded for (usually for next to nothing) or taken in the round 3 or later of the draft. There has to be one side that is identifying those talents, but there has to be another side that develops them and that is where I think we are letting ourselves down. Sydney has also selected plenty of players that have not gone on to make it as well and overlooked players better than what they have taken, but I would not mind betting that they could have had a number of these players swapped out for others and the ones they took would have had better careers at Sydney. They have a development model and I would suggest they stick quite rigidly to it. The 'no d1ckheads' policy wasn't just a catchphrase it was fair dinkum.
Something at Carlton certainly has to change. We are a club that has not been a genuine 'force' since the 90s and I agree with Roos in saying that I doubt it comes down to recruiting as the key element.

So what is the club doing? It needs to probably scrap the whole 'we are Carlton f*ck the rest' policy, stop with the public statements and just go about getting all of the basics right, all the way through the club. I am sick of watching tripe week after week. Play the Sydney 'moneyball' approach with regards to trying to hit the right recycled players. Just about everyone that has traded to Sydney, they have gotten more out of that player than what they have paid for them.

What an impressive post. Well done and we really appreciate the obvious serious effort you've put in.

Supports my hunch that there are recruiters who crunch numbers / stats (and ultimately play safe covering their dots)... and then there are those who have a superior level of intuition and know how to ask the right questions and seek those who best tick the right attitude / skill boxes AND fit the needs of their club.
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: Development and Recruiting

Reply #22
I didn't think Betts was a Rookie, I thought he was from the PSD, but I digress...
I think that there will always be some players that come through late and play some games and everyone says "gee how was he missed".  Our games played per pick ratio would be a lot higher for 1st round picks than it would be for rookies or any other draft round, so I am not sure why we are comparing.

What is of a bigger concern to me is that we absolutely have a different structure at the club when we get the guys we get and they don't go on to achieve as much as at other clubs. Only a portion of that can be done to the quality of the footballer, the other element has to be the quality of the football club.
.
Do the following ex-players all stand out as exceptional coaches we would have loved to get out hands on?
Stuart Dew
Leigh Tudor
John Blakey
Henry Playfair (development)
Stuart Maxfield (development)

I can see it right now, if at the same time Sydney signed any of these coaches we had instead signed them... There would have been talk about them being underwhelming signings, yet Sydney know what fits their mold and they go after it.

The following players are recycled players at Sydney
Rhyce Shaw (Twice runner-up B&F, premiership player)
Ted Richards (AA, B&F Runner up, premiership player)
Ben McGlynn (Top 10 B&F, should have been a premiership player, bar finals injury)
Martin Mattner (Premiership player)
Josh Kennedy (AA, B&F Winner, premiership player, top 10 in Brownlow out and out gun!!)
Mitch Morton (premiership player  :o)
Shane Mumford (Shortlist AA, premiership player)


Others to play in last years premiership
Player Drafted
Sam Reid 38 National Draft
Luke Parker 40 National Draft
Adam Goodes 43 National Draft
Ryan O'Keefe 56 National Draft
Alex Johnson 57 National Draft
Craig Bird 58 National Draft
Nick Malceski 64 National Draft
Nick Smith 15 Rookie Draft
Heath Grundy 42 Rookie Draft
Kieran Jack 57 Rookie Draft
Mike Pyke 57 Rookie Draft
That is 17 of last years side traded for (usually for next to nothing) or taken in the round 3 or later of the draft. There has to be one side that is identifying those talents, but there has to be another side that develops them and that is where I think we are letting ourselves down. Sydney has also selected plenty of players that have not gone on to make it as well and overlooked players better than what they have taken, but I would not mind betting that they could have had a number of these players swapped out for others and the ones they took would have had better careers at Sydney. They have a development model and I would suggest they stick quite rigidly to it. The 'no d1ckheads' policy wasn't just a catchphrase it was fair dinkum.
Something at Carlton certainly has to change. We are a club that has not been a genuine 'force' since the 90s and I agree with Roos in saying that I doubt it comes down to recruiting as the key element.

So what is the club doing? It needs to probably scrap the whole 'we are Carlton f*ck the rest' policy, stop with the public statements and just go about getting all of the basics right, all the way through the club. I am sick of watching tripe week after week. Play the Sydney 'moneyball' approach with regards to trying to hit the right recycled players. Just about everyone that has traded to Sydney, they have gotten more out of that player than what they have paid for them.
Top post M. We have a long way to go.
Excuses year 1, blame year 2, contract extention year 3........

Re: Development and Recruiting

Reply #23
@MIO

A very telling post MIO, great work - hope Sticks and the board are reading it.  ;)
Reality always wins in the end.

Re: Development and Recruiting

Reply #24
Bootsma is a first round pick as well, only pushed out to >20 owing to the draft concessions handed out to GWS.

Grigg was also a top 20 pick and he has played a fair few of games as well.  He is a decent contributor elsewhere.

Should he be considered as part of our drafting?
DrE is no more... you ok with that harmonica man?

Re: Development and Recruiting

Reply #25
Great analysis re the Swans and Us.

The 'Talent Identification or Development' argument is very difficult to answer from the outside looking in. It is a bit of a chicken and egg discussion as well.

My concern with our recruiting is not only that the players we have drafted with our early picks haven't delivered [in terms of games or B&F performance], we haven't drafted to fill the obvious leadership void in the club. None of the 1st round draft picks since Murphy are even in the leadership group! All of the 1st round picks appear from the outside to be pretty introverted, and don't appear to be the types who impose themselves on either the playing group or games.

Bootsma, Watson, Yarran and Lucas are all players who appear as 'followers' rather than leaders on the field. None of them play with physical presence and the ability to impose themselves on games of football. Gibbs and Kruezer, while better players than that group, are also yet to reach a level where they consistently deliver A grade performances that impact the result of games. Juddy is still the one over the last few weeks who has willed himself contest after contest to try and lift the team.

Leadership skills are very hard to develop when there is a lack of good role models. However personality wise, not all players are suitable or interested in leading a group. This needs to be a critical factor in our decision making on recruitment choices, and if we can't find what we need within the draftees then we trade accordingly. It is no surprise to me that most of the best sides over the last few years [Swans, Pies, Hawks] have also been clearly the best at identifying deficiencies in their list and then trading and developing those players very well. This needs to change quickly if we are to improve the list in a meaningful way in a short space of time.

Re: Development and Recruiting

Reply #26

In fairness there are a few more (former) rookies with less games on our list....Casboult (13), Bell (11), Cachia (9), Okeefe (3), Dale (2). Having said that we only recently got rid of both Thornton (188) and Ohailpin (81) who were both rookies compared to Russell (116) who was a top 20 draft pick as well. So the pattern continues.[/size]

Very interesting list there Kruddler - well done. I would say this - where was the development then of the much vaunted late 1st to 3rd round selections of the draft? Why is it here we fail and we fail badly? That is development.

Is it the rookies are left to themselves to have to fight for a spot and largely this is done at Cramer St? Is the development coaches and time put into them is different from those rookies to the major selections? Why does this happen and why has it been happening repeatedly for the past 8-10 years?!?!?

Re: Development and Recruiting

Reply #27
I just had an idea, its a bit bold, and many wont like it, but Im going to float it anyway.

In the event that we do trade away Hampson and Warnock, would anyone else think that Koschitzke would be of any value to us?

Would come for nothing at least.

"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: Development and Recruiting

Reply #28
I just had an idea, its a bit bold, and many wont like it, but Im going to float it anyway.

In the event that we do trade away Hampson and Warnock, would anyone else think that Koschitzke would be of any value to us?

Would come for nothing at least.

Even if he did cost us nothing, my answer would still be NO.

Re: Development and Recruiting

Reply #29
I just had an idea, its a bit bold, and many wont like it, but Im going to float it anyway.

In the event that we do trade away Hampson and Warnock, would anyone else think that Koschitzke would be of any value to us?

Would come for nothing at least.

Even if he did cost us nothing, my answer would still be NO.

Any reason why?

From where I sit, he comes to us and becomes our 3rd best key forward and the only key forward on our list to have played in a grand final.  Think about how Geelong used Brad Ottens in his last couple of years at the cattery.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson