Time to stick necks out and see what you think of 2016 before it happens.
1 - West Coast
Have a lot very good players right in the golden part over their careers. Home games means they have 11 games where they start heavy favorites. Redden and Jetta help with depth and speed and McKenzie with join McGovern down back to give genuine key defenders.
2 - Hawthorn
A year older and some significant retirements make them drop, however I can't bring myself to drop them any lower than here. Lake and Hale hurt their structure, Fitzpatrick may be a solid player down back, but that's two Melbourne defenders the last two years....
3 - Freo
Hardest team to read, like WC 11 home games puts them in a good spot, but Sandilands and Pavlich are already old, McPharlin is gone and their key position stocks are thin. Bennell is a talent but is he disciplined enough to get them the next step?
4 - Bulldogs
I rate this side, talent galore, young leaders and a core group that wants to be more than just AFL players. Suckling and Adcock are strange additions, pretty much replicating what is already there. If Boyd can stop thinking he's the greatest player and start playing like one then they are a scary proposition.
5 - Port
Another hard team. I like what they have done since Hinkley has come along, Wingard is my favorite non Carlton player in the league. They have a great starting centre square, a quality forward half and now a stud with Dixon at FF that has been missing since Marky Mark retired.
6 - Gold Coast - Their improvement comes from returning players and cutting away some cancers. If they can get their best players on the park then they are a 12 win team at least. They young KP players are now starting to come into their own at both ends, not sure How Grant and Rosa fit in but they will give depth.
7 - Collingwood - Any team that gets Treloar at that sort of money has to serious about finals. It used to be Pendlebury or bust in the middle but Treloar addition will give opposition coaches a nightmare. Swann and Cloke are sliding away from their best, Moore is a gun in the making and Howe should give a hard to match 3rd tall.
8 - Sydney - A transition year, Goodes, Pyke, Bird and Jetta gone and who knows what will happen with Buddy. Richards down back is OK Talia helps but he's no star. Aging stars, young guns coming through but nothing too flash. One and done for the finals.
9 - Richmond - The joy of being a Carlton supporter is to put Richmond 9th on a speculative ladder. Yarran will probably star in 2016 (2017 will be another story) but they haven't addressed their failing and that's heart Yarran has none and very few of their players have shown any when it counts.
10 - Geelong - Yes they have Dangerfield but this side is finally broken. Their future hall of fame players are gone or the wrong side of 30, Selwood seems battered, Hawkins is basically an old man with his back, Clarke could break down at any time and their list is so fragile injury wise I can't see them getting more than 10 wins.
11 - North - Dads Army. When your most dangerous player is nearly 40 and the forward line is closer to retiring age than birth you have problems. Little speed around the ball and average disposal skill is still Norths problem, I wonder who their coach will blame when they finish 11th?
12 - Giants - Consolidation year. They lost some players and other want out, not a great way to start a year when your pushing for finals. Still have question marks down back and Stevie J may struggle with the kick it long to the gun forwards game plan.
13 - Adelaide - Loss of Dangerfield and the rest of the quality mids are aging. Third head coach in 3 years, so more learning. Might be a bit harsh with this position as they have some nice developing flankers but the missed draft picks will be starting to hurt about now.
14 - St Kilda - Probably a bit low but I need to see if Bruce can reproduce 2015 and Riewoldt still can do it too. Nice players around the ground and Carlisile really helps stiffen up the defense on paper at least. If Freeman gets healthy and plays it adds a dimension they don't have either.
15 - Melbourne - Has the makings of a very good team. Solid defense, building a blue chip midfield and could have a very dangerous forward line with Hogan and Wiederman. Just need Roos to get out of the way and let the men play.
16 - Carlton - A fresh voice that will hopefully let the tight grip on the players go. Quality additions with Kerrdige and Wright and the GWS quartet could be anything, Gorringe from GC has talent but has he got it between his ears?
17 - Brisbane - With a team full of mids they went and got more Bastinac and Bell but at least added Walker to give a big body up forward while their young KP players develop. Their list looks like Sydney on paper mainly mids with a few KP but the class is not there.
18 - Essendon - I can't see why people are expecting a big leap from Essendon, their best players are 30+ Heppell aside, Carlisle's gone and Daniher might by all hype and no substance. Very solid down back but slow through the midfield and bereft of talent up forward.
I'll have a crack but will have another crack in March. But for now...
1. Hawthorn
2. West Coast
3. Port Adelaide
4. Footscray
5. Fremantle
6. Geelong
7. Sydney
8. Adelaide
............................................
9. Richmond
10. Collingwood
11. North Melbourne
12. Carlton
13. GWS
14. GCS
15. Melbourne
16. Brisbane
17. St. Kilda
18. Essendon.
Yep, reckon 11th to 14th is about right for us in '16.
Beat the Tiges in Rd 1 and I reckon we'll make the 8! :o :o
@Baggers
Mate if we could climb to within 2-3 games of the eight that would be a fantastic result!
EDiT: modified after yesterday's wonderful news
Sorry folks!
1. West Coast
2. Fremantle
3. Hawthorn
4. Richmond
5. GWS
6. Port
7. Sydney
8. Bulldogs
9. North Melbourne
10. Geelong
11. Gold Coast
12. Adelaide
13. St Kilda
14. Collingwood
15. Melbourne
16. Brisbane
17. Carlton
18. Essendon
1. Hawthorn
2. West Coast
3. Sydney
4. Collingwood
5. Freo
6. Port
7. Richmond
8. GWS
9. Geelong
10. Bulldogs
11. North Melbourne
12. Adelaide
13. St Kilda
14. Melbourne
15. Carlton
16. Brisbane
17. Gold Coast
18. Scum
I'll have a crack but will have another crack in March. But for now...
1. Hawthorn
2. West Coast
3. Port Adelaide
4. Footscray
5. Fremantle
6. Geelong
7. Sydney
8. Adelaide
............................................
9. Richmond
10. Collingwood
11. North Melbourne
12. Carlton
13. GWS
14. GCS
15. Melbourne
16. Brisbane
17. St. Kilda
18. Essendon.
I like this ladder. Maybe Port and West Coast 1-2 then the Hawks 3rd. At some point it has to get tougher for the Hawks as it did for Brisbane in 2004. Young, hungry sides are tough to keep at bay.
I'm still cogitating on this but IMO look out for the Cats next year, they could be the big improvers.
Sorry folks!
1. West Coast
2. Fremantle
3. Hawthorn
4. Richmond
5. GWS
6. Port
7. Sydney
8. Bulldogs
9. North Melbourne
10. Geelong
11. Gold Coast
12. Adelaide
13. St Kilda
14. Collingwood
15. Melbourne
16. Brisbane
17. Essendon
18. Carlton
x2....swap the Bulldogs and Tigers plus swap Collingwood and Gold Coast and we agree...Dogs recruited some ready made muscle to give them depth and should see a return out of Boyd which will make them dangerous..
We lack size and physicality until our new kids develop......
Some very interesting ladders. I haven't thought about the whole ladder yet, but I do have a few thoughts.
[1] Carlton: we may not get a huge number of wins, but we will be better than last year if we can keep our list in decent shape. If we get injuries like last year, we will be close to the cellar, but last year was an aberration.
[2] Essendon: I really don't see a lot of improvement in them, except, perhaps, in their intensity. They were devoid of ruckmen last year, so will be depending on Leuenberger. Leuenberger is good enough if he isn't injured (very unlikely) and if he gets his head right. I can't see it. If they get any penalty from WADA, then they are seriously screwed. I will be hoping that is the case, as they really were cheats in a way a can barely believe.
[3] Hawthorn: I really hope teams can find the 'secret' to beating Hawthorn. They have won enough. But I'm not sure they will. It would be nice to see them get injuries like we do for a change as well. Let's see them win a premiership with 22 fit players on their list and only 1 star in 4 available!
[4] Richmond: I don't rate them. That didn't stop them beating teams I thought would kill them. But I wonder what will happen to them if they struggle with injuries: I don't think they have any depth.
If they get any penalty from WADA, then they are seriously screwed.
So if they get a reasonable whack, they are odds on to get handed the No. 1 draft pick!!!!
1. West Coast
2. Hawthorn
3. Fremantle
4. Western Bulldogs
5. North Melbourne
6. Port Adelaide
7. Sydney
8. Geelong
9. Richmond
10. Greater Western Sydney
11. Collingwood
12. Carlton
13. Adelaide
14. Gold Coast
15. Melbourne
16. St Kilda
17. Brisbane
18. Essendon
I'm still cogitating on this but IMO look out for the Cats next year, they could be the big improvers.
It's all about who played above themselves and who played below themselves last year. Teams like Port and Collingwood who are clearly great teams but finished out of the eight will improve with the easier draw whereas your Footcrays and Radelaides may struggle.
Cats might have a better 2016 but I reckon they will fade quickly - they have zero depth. Other than Dangerfield they recruited little but coughed up a lot and sold their future to assemble a list that looks shallow and has questionable upside.
Norf are another mob that are waaaaaaaaaay over rated. Can't believe the dream run they get with the football media.
Last two prelim finals Prof, they are going okay.
And never looked liked progressing. They wont win a flag with this group.
Last two prelim finals Prof, they are going okay.
Roos might bradbury their way to a flag but thats about it
Cats might have a better 2016 but I reckon they will fade quickly - they have zero depth. Other than Dangerfield they recruited little but coughed up a lot and sold their future to assemble a list that looks shallow and has questionable upside.
Norf are another mob that are waaaaaaaaaay over rated. Can't believe the dream run they get with the football media.
Agree with both statements, Scott will be desperate for a flag to prove himself given his first was a bit of a token premiership. North are so overated it's hilarious, always get a lucky fluke run with whoever they play in finals and manage to make it to a prelim which flatters them a lot. Team full of has beens and never gonnabes.
GWS and GC ripping all the best talent from 4 or so drafts has made made it possible to get away with average lists and still go ok.
Hawks could win it again .
Agree, Hawks by miles. You can take as much of my money as you want
Roos might bradbury their way to a flag but thats about it
Think about it. How hard is it to win a premiership? I would much rather be thereabouts than no mans land.
I'd certainly much prefer to be making progress with a developing group in a lower ladder position than falling short with a number of ageing players, which is where North is at in my estimation. They would indeed need a Bradbury incident.
Im not wanting to be critical of others choices, just curious, are people's ladders based on where they rate the sides, or have they looked at the fixture?
The fixture makes a bigger difference to anything these days I think as its geared about making it harder for the top 6, easier for the bottom 6, and so so for the middle 6 whilst maximising revenue.
^^
That's exactly what I did with mine.
Think about it. How hard is it to win a premiership? I would much rather be thereabouts than no mans land.
Ask a Doggies fan if they would give up all their prelim appearances for a flag, but they'd say yes.
What if Carlton could win the 2000 premiership and all we had to do was lose the 99 prelim, would you say yes?
Ask a Doggies fan if they would give up all their prelim appearances for a flag, but they'd say yes.
What if Carlton could win the 2000 premiership and all we had to do was lose the 99 prelim, would you say yes?
But we are not talking about winning a flag here. There is never any guarantee that by building you will be able to challenge. I would rather be up there playing consistent finals football, what with FA now as well, you need to be up there to attract good talent.
WHAT?!?
We are talking about winning a flag, both Lance and Prof E both said North had no chance and you said you rather be up than in no mans land.
If we are not building towards a premiership then what are we doing? At the start of every season you have teams aiming for a premiership and those building for a future tilt. If you're not doing either then why are you in the AFL?
I would gladly take another year on the bottom if it meant a more solid foundation, we tried the quick skim and get a big name, which left us with no depth and with the inclusion of the expansion teams, little chance to draft depth either. I would rather draft and trade for our foundation (which we seem to be doing) and have sustained success with multiple chances at a flag even if it meant a year longer on the bottom.
Ask Ross Lyon if he's happy with finals appearances, 1st counts and every one else finishes equal last.
I think you'll find Lyon has already answered your question, and most would agree. ;)
Re winning a flag, I said I would rather be up there than down the bottom. YOU then spoke about winning a flag which was not part of my statement. Quite simply, I would rather be where North are as opposed to where we are and most people pay out on them but they run a very successful operation down there and I for one am quite envious. Just because some don't see them as serious challengers does not mean they are not trying to seriously challenge.
You can only give yourself an opportunity - no one rated Collingwood either but they got there.
1 West Coast
2 Sydney
3 Geelong
4 Port Adelaide
5 Hawthorn
6 North Melbourne
7 Western Bulldogs
8 Collingwood
9 Adelaide
10 GWS
11 Melbourne
12 Fremantle
13 Richmond
14 Gold Coast
15 St Kilda
16 Essendon
17 Carlton
18 Brisbane
I think Fyfe's injury and a lack of KPF will hurt Freo this year. Expect them to be the big sliders. Tough draw for them too considering they finished on top last year.
Also expect Hawthorn to drop a few games, will still be a challenge come finals though. If Selwood gets over his plantar fasciitis, Geelong will have an enviable midfield and will be hard to beat.
Sydney will be back to their best. I personally rate theirs as the best midfield in the comp, especially when you factor in depth. West Coast will be the team to beat though in the top of the ladder.
It's hard to see where Brisbane will get a win. Many are predicting the scum to bottom out, but they'll win enough to avoid a wooden spoon, and I'm glad of that. I don't want them receiving a #1 pick. Personally I would prefer if they finished 10th every year (9th reserved for Richmond). We're not going to win many (I have us winning 3 to Brisbane's 2 and the Scum's 4), but a number 2 pick and a similar approach at the trade table will see us bring in the cream of the midfield crop at next years draft. 2016 will be about getting games into kids and rebuilding the culture.
Richmond are my tip for the years biggest disappointment. With a tougher draw and the fact that they brought little in to the club and weren't particularly hurt by injuries last year, I just don't see where their improvement is coming from. With other teams around them rebounding from disappointing 2015 seasons (Port Adelaide and Geelong) plus the improvement of teams like Collingwood, GWS and Melbourne, I think the Tiges will slide. Hardwick is also my tip for first coach sacked.
I think you'll find Lyon has already answered your question, and most would agree. ;)
Re winning a flag, I said I would rather be up there than down the bottom. YOU then spoke about winning a flag which was not part of my statement. Quite simply, I would rather be where North are as opposed to where we are and most people pay out on them but they run a very successful operation down there and I for one am quite envious. Just because some don't see them as serious challengers does not mean they are not trying to seriously challenge.
I'm sure they are trying to challenge, as I said before you're either aiming for a flag or trying to rebuild for one. I find it odd that you are envious of North, I'm envious of Hawthorn and before them Sydney and Geelong.
When you look at North's age demographic, you would expect half of their best players to be retire by the end of 2017. Ages this year; Harvey 38, Petrie 34, Firrito Waite 33, Dal Santo 32, Wells 31, Thompson Gibson 30, Swallow Thomas 29. All of these player are 30 or over at the end of 2017. Goldstein, Hansen and Higgins will all be turning 30 leaving Ziebell and Cunnington turning 27 and Brown Atley and Jacobs turning 26 in 2018 and right in their best years of their career, due to Norths high-ish finishes and win now mentality, their list depth is not much.
So why in two years time would their younger guns want to stay there? I can see North losing players to free agency, especially if they don't get a flag this season, how many teams would want a 27 yo Cunnington or Ziebell to give their up and coming side some real grunt, or a 26yo Brown as a focal point or the speed of a 26 yo Atley coming off half back?
To me North is not in a great position, they are very old, short down back and a bit one way when the game is against them. I just can't see them doing any good, and when they go down the bottom in the not too distant future, lets see if they have 30,000 members by Christmas off a wooden spoon.
Of course they will bottom out, but they have been up there and had a decent crack and in today's game, that is some form of success.
Most has essendon last anyway but for those that didn't a quick edit may be warranted
Most has essendon last anyway but for those that didn't a quick edit may be warranted
Reckon they will be gunning for the No 1 pick and happy to finish last.....
Reckon they will be gunning for the No 1 pick and happy to finish last.....
Whilst I want pick 1, I reckon even SOS will be happy to get number 2 if it delivers Essendon a spoon.
Whilst I want pick 1, I reckon even SOS will be happy to get number 2 if it delivers Essendon a spoon.
Maybe we can ask for a priority pick again. If we finish 17th and the only team below us are the Drug Cheats, we should be a certainty.
The idea that their punishment for cheating so disables them that they finish last... and then are rewarded with a no. 1 pick seems absolutely preposterous. This will have to be looked at.
The idea that their punishment for cheating so disables them that they finish last... and then are rewarded with a no. 1 pick seems absolutely preposterous. This will have to be looked at.
Mate from what I can gather, they will be getting priority picks as well. #1 and #2 along with #19 and #20. Gill is an absolute dumb fork.
Reckon they will be gunning for the No 1 pick and happy to finish last.....
Yes, they will be in rebuild mode and will try to make some future positives out of this for sure - mad if they don't especially if they can con some special concessions out of the AFL. Be interesting to see what the other clubs might have to say though - possible cr@pstorm on the horizon.
Mate from what I can gather, they will be getting priority picks as well. #1 and #2 along with #19 and #20. Gill is an absolute dumb fork.
I can't see Essendon getting this: it is just too raw. We have a realistic chance of getting a PP. For Essendon to get one would not be acceptable to anyone else.
So have we determined whether these players are deregistered / delisted or if Essendon can trade them at the end of the season?
Reckon they will be gunning for the No 1 pick and happy to finish last.....
Hopefully there's another Richard Lounder in the mix this year. ;)
They won't be getting priority picks. ::)
They'll have half at least half a dozen experienced senior player returning in 2017.
Even if they finish last, which I'm not as certain of as some will happen, this is just a hiccup for them if the players stick.(that's the unknown)
It's a year in the wilderness...then back on track.
During that time they'll have an opportunity to blood and fast-track a whole group of players.
It's not the same as what happened to us.
They won't be getting priority picks. ::)
They'll have half at least half a dozen experienced senior player returning in 2017.
Even if they finish last, which I'm not as certain of as some will happen, this is just a hiccup for them if the players stick.(that's the unknown)
It's a year in the wilderness...then back on track.
During that time they'll have an opportunity to blood and fast-track a whole group of players.
It's not the same as what happened to us.
Difference is Lods....every single young player with talent will be worked over by a number of clubs trying to promote their club as a caring club that puts their players first. Young players, and families of young players, have already said they are not happy with the bombers and the way the whole drugs issue has gone through the whole club. Given the chance, you will probably see a mass exodus of young talent.
Hell, you might even see senior blokes wanting out after they were forced to sit out the year thanks to the clubs incompetence/pushing the boundaries.
Doubt you'd see many stars nominating the bombers as their destination of choice anytime soon.
This will haunt Essendon for as long as the salary cap issues have haunted us.
....and i love it!
Difference is Lods....every single young player with talent will be worked over by a number of clubs trying to promote their club as a caring club that puts their players first. Young players, and families of young players, have already said they are not happy with the bombers and the way the whole drugs issue has gone through the whole club. Given the chance, you will probably see a mass exodus of young talent.
Hell, you might even see senior blokes wanting out after they were forced to sit out the year thanks to the clubs incompetence/pushing the boundaries.
Doubt you'd see many stars nominating the bombers as their destination of choice anytime soon.
This will haunt Essendon for as long as the salary cap issues have haunted us.
....and i love it!
That's quite likely...which is why I put the qualification "If the players stick".
If they don't it will be Bombergeddon
...but if they circle the wagons they may not be as wounded by this as we might think.
They've been able to still attract players to the club during the scandal.
That's quite likely...which is why I put the qualification "If the players stick".
If they don't it will be Bombergeddon
...but if they circle the wagons they may not be as wounded by this as we might think.
They've been able to still attract players to the club during the scandal.
Goddard i want success? lol
Chappy i just want a team that wants me?
Anyone else?
Craig Bird, Matthew Leuenberger last year
Gwilt the year before....they're average at best, but if the Bombers can convince players it's a new regime and a chance to be a part of the climb up the ladder under Worsfold they'll find players.
But it really depends on the fallout.
If players start legal action against the club, and the cracks start to open, they're History.
(I actually feel uncomfortable making a case for them not being finished...so I'm going to stop now.) :D
"Theyre screwed!"
That feels better :D
Making Goddard captain might set 'em back a bit once he gets into his on field public beratings.
Making Goddard captain might set 'em back a bit once he gets into his on field public beratings.
Goddard doesn't deserve the captaincy, but Essendone deserve to have him as captain !!
Making Goddard captain might set 'em back a bit once he gets into his on field public beratings.
And the problem with that is? ;D
Goddard doesn't deserve the captaincy, but Essendone deserve to have him as captain !!
Touché!
And the problem with that is? ;D
Mate, I didn't say there was a problem. ;)
The Hun ran a poll of experts asking them the top eight, premiership, Brownlow and last place.
Out of two dozen "experts" only one failed to pick EssenScum to finish last, Jon "Malph" Ralph picked Carlton to finish last.
Now tonight Ralph's published a story discussing Daisy's Dollar Deals, Ralph is trying hard to destabilise our club so that his ladder prediction comes true. He thinks he can make Bolton bite like Malthouse and Swann used to bite. He thinks he can cause trouble amongst the playing list like the way they bullied us into offloading Robinson, Garlett and others.
Ralph might as well just bite himself. The Judge, Bolton and SOS have put those days long behind us! ;)
Carlton are on the up! :D
Goddard doesn't deserve the captaincy, but Essendone deserve to have him as captain !!
True. And can he change his spots? I doubt it. I expect to see his mouth open often, and not positively.
The Hun ran a poll of experts asking them the top eight, premiership, Brownlow and last place.
Out of two dozen "experts" only one failed to pick EssenScum to finish last, Jon "Malph" Ralph picked Carlton to finish last.
Now tonight Ralph's published a story discussing Daisy's Dollar Deals, Ralph is trying hard to destabilise our club so that his ladder prediction comes true. He thinks he can make Bolton bite like Malthouse and Swann used to bite. He thinks he can cause trouble amongst the playing list like the way they bullied us into offloading Robinson, Garlett and others.
Ralph might as well just bite himself. The Judge, Bolton and SOS have put those days long behind us! ;)
Carlton are on the up! :D
We may yet finish on the bottom, if our list cannot stay reasonably fit. That was one of our main issues in 2015.If we HAVE to play the kids before they are ready, then we may well be bottom. But that doesn't bother me. I will be happy to see us being competitive and to see the list develop (as it hasn't for far too long).
Essendon, on the other hand, look more like we were in 2003 - 2006. They will need a LOT of draft luck to turn that around. (I am really happy about that - is their an emoji for smile like a shark?)
As for Mr. Ralph, I doubt our staff will be worrying about his credibility that much. More likely to take notice of Caro (and that is hard enough for anyone). :)
We may yet finish on the bottom, if our list cannot stay reasonably fit. That was one of our main issues in 2015.If we HAVE to play the kids before they are ready, then we may well be bottom. But that doesn't bother me. I will be happy to see us being competitive and to see the list develop (as it hasn't for far too long).
Essendon, on the other hand, look more like we were in 2003 - 2006. They will need a LOT of draft luck to turn that around. (I am really happy about that - is their an emoji for smile like a shark?)
As for Mr. Ralph, I doubt our staff will be worrying about his credibility that much. More likely to take notice of Caro (and that is hard enough for anyone). :)
x2
Ralph shot himself in the foot rather grandly when commenting on our lame performance against cheats.com.au a few weeks back.
In his comments he rolled out low level stats for a number of players failing to understand that most of the players he mentioned had very limited game time... the kind of howling mistake you'd expect from a rookie journalist shortly after his lobotomy.
Ralph's been having a crack at us quite a lot recently, maybe someone from Carlton pinched his sausage roll!