Sorry, thought I already had this up.
Game today against another team we should beat.
We've made our first change to the lineup in weeks, a forced change with Lucy mcevoy an out with a sore calf and Brooke Walker returning.
A point has been made about half wanting effort and commitment and walker being left out sent alarm bells her way.
Well she had 7 tackles last week in th3 vflw and has been recalled this week.
Finals are mathematically possible, but realistically no chance. Still, would be good to get 3 on the trot
Our team for this week:
Backs: Mua Laloifi Gab Pound
Half Backs: Keely Sherar Paige Trudgeon Daisy Walker
Centres: Mimi Hill Grace Egan Kerryn Harrington
Half Forwards: Darcy Vescio Jess Good Brooke Walker
Forwards: Nik Stevens Maddy Guerin
Rucks: Breann Moody Maddy Prespakis Georgie Gee
Interchange: Elise O'Dea Abbie McKay Nat Plane Jess dal Pos Courtney Jones
To say Carlton has a mathematical possibility of making finals might be stretching it. Ignoring the other teams between 6th-placed Collingwood and ourselves for the moment, Collingwood would have to lose both remaining matches and Carlton would not only have to win both but also bridge a percentage differential of almost 40%. I'd love to see the sorts of scores that would see Collingwood losing 20% and Carlton gaining 20% in the space of 2 games.
Looking at the points for and against, it looks as though we could bridge the gap if we score 60+ points, keeping the opposition scoreless, and Collingwood remain scoreless and their opposition win by 60+ points. That would probably also be true if the score differentials would be around 60 points but I couldn't be bothered working that out. That's a pretty tall ask given Carlton averages just 28 points per game. In round 7 Carlton did beat St Kilda by 48-2 but to paraphrase Kerry Packer's comment about Alan Bond, you only get 1 St Kilda in your season and we've had ours. Gold Coast and Melbourne lie ahead.
It's good to see Brooke Walker back but Lucy McEvoy has been very influential in our last few games. We'll miss her strength and dependability. Let's hope Brooke's run and creativity can compensate for Lucy's absence.
It's good to see Brooke Walker back but Lucy McEvoy has been very influential in our last few games. We'll miss her strength and dependability. Let's hope Brooke's run and creativity can compensate for Lucy's absence.
Yes, I agree.
McEvoy is a bit of a loss because she compensates for our general smaller size and lesser physicality, also McEvoy playing her role so well really allows Harrington and Laloifi more freedom to run and intercept. They may be forced to play a bit tighter this week, but if Brooke has her run going she might be a weapon from the HBF or Wing.
To say Carlton has a mathematical possibility of making finals might be stretching it. Ignoring the other teams between 6th-placed Collingwood and ourselves for the moment, Collingwood would have to lose both remaining matches and Carlton would not only have to win both but also bridge a percentage differential of almost 40%. I'd love to see the sorts of scores that would see Collingwood losing 20% and Carlton gaining 20% in the space of 2 games.
Mathematically possible... as I said.
Realistically, no chance....as I said.
Depends on what maths you use. In probability theory, in the limit vanishingly small probabilities are set to 0. If you have a unit square and pick 1 point within it and then someone else picks a point at random, the probability of it being the same point is 0 rather than being very small. That's the basis of continuous probability theory. Getting Carlton into the finals requires magical thinking rather than maths.
I'd reserve 'mathematically possible' for an unlikely run of wins & losses in the run to the finals.
Depends on what maths you use. In probability theory, in the limit vanishingly small probabilities are set to 0. If you have a unit square and pick 1 point within it and then someone else picks a point at random, the probability of it being the same point is 0 rather than being very small. That's the basis of continuous probability theory. Getting Carlton into the finals requires magical thinking rather than maths.
Of all the things to get on your high horse about, this is what you are choosing?? Why? Are you that bored?
Go for a walk or something.
FWIW, go back last year and look at Carlton vs Gold Coast.
80 - 20. 10 goal win.
If the same was to happen this year, and we beat the dees by 2 goals - we end up with 95.8%
Pies are up against the dominant crows shortly. Could easily be beaten by 5 goals.
Pies play tigers in last round. Lose that one by 2 goals - they end up with 95.6%
All of this is based around around scores were the losing team gets 20 or so points.
So yeah, mathematically possible......but realistically, no chance.
Did you see some angry emojis or something? Just a discussion, but strange the guy who said he likes to play devil's advocate by advancing points he doesn't believe in for the sake of argument would be upset.
Did you see some angry emojis or something? Just a discussion, but strange the guy who said he likes to play devil's advocate by advancing points he doesn't believe in for the sake of argument would be upset.
Perplexed, not angry.
CLEARLY possible, (as highlighted above) yet very much unlikely.....if for no other reason than we won't be Melbourne.
Doesn't matter what 'type of mathematics' you use....simple maths works just fine.
You arguing about its plausibility reminds me of flat earthers arguments.
Its clear to see how it works, and arguing for any other scenario simply doesn't make sense.
The Collingwood game starts in a few minutes on Fox Footy, so let's hope for a thrashing! Whether that helps us or not, it's always good to see the Pies lose anyway (apologies to GIC)!
Which brain dead FW was in charge of the decision on both teams jumpers for today?
So 2 points doesn't get it done for us ::)
Which brain dead FW was in charge of the decision on both teams jumpers for today?
We were stopped from wearing our Indigenous round jumper last week and it was significantly different to the GWS jumper in colour and tone ::)
We were stopped from wearing our Indigenous round jumper last week and it was significantly different to the GWS jumper in colour and tone ::)
And they a lot that this week? Terrible decision.
We were stopped from wearing our Indigenous round jumper last week and it was significantly different to the GWS jumper in colour and tone ::)
Exactly.
First thing i thought of. Why did they stop us last week, and allow it this week?! Pathetic.
In any event, good win by the girls. Jumped out of the gate early, ensured they didn't get blown away in the arm wrestle in the middle, and ran away with it in the end.
3 in a row.
If there's one part of the game the AFLW team does better than their AFL counterparts, it's singing the club song :)
Great win by the girls, and Darcy, particularly after the Suns got back into the game and put us under pressure.
How good were Breann Moody's runs? She reckons that she is the fastest of the group and, once she gets into her stride, I suspect that she is.
Jess Good's improvement is remarkable. Well done Shaun Hampson, and Jess for putting in the hard work of course!
If there's one part of the game the AFLW team does better than their AFL counterparts, it's singing the club song :)
Great win by the girls, and Darcy, particularly after the Suns got back into the game and put us under pressure.
How good were Breann Moody's runs? She reckons that she is the fastest of the group and, once she gets into her stride, I suspect that she is.
Jess Good's improvement is remarkable. Well done Shaun Hampson, and Jess for putting in the hard work of course!
Bree Moody put her hand up for the grand final sprint a year or 2 ago, but never got a call back about it. Instead, Jess Hosking got a gig out of nowhere.
The talls at the club have really come on.
Clearly Bree Moody has performed at an elite level this year after AA nod last year.
Jess Good in her first year is performing above expectations.
Paige Trudgeon was a train on player last year and i think has played every game and is rock solid in defence (kicking needs work though)
and although she hasn't got a game yet, Imogen Milford kicked 3 in the VFLW last week in her first year on the list.
In the 'gulf' of Harris and Downie, we've done pretty well with our no-name replacements.
Good to have the girls win, and win well. Pity we were as ordinary as we were at the start.
Good to have the girls win, and win well. Pity we were as ordinary as we were at the start.
R1 vs Collingwood (loss by 19) - 6th
R2 vs Geelong (win by 14) - 12th
R3 vs Brisbane (loss by 35) - 3rd
R4 vs Kangas (loss by 30) - 4th
R5 vs Adelaide (loss by 39) - 1st
R6 vs Fremantle (loss by 42) - 5th
R7 vs St. Kilda (win by 48) - 13th
R8 vs GWS (win by 18) - 11th
R9 vs Gold Coast (win by 30) - 9th
R10 vs Melbourne (? ? ?) - 2nd
We are 8th.
That sets a very clear picture if you ask me.
We are not a top 6 side. Our only losses have come against the top 6 sides.
We have beaten everyone below us that we've played.
If we had've played West Coast and Richmond instead of 2 of the top 6 sides, and won like we'd be expected too, we'd be in the finals.
With such a (potentially) uneven draw, these things are bound to happen.
I think they did the wrong thing by getting rid of the conferences. When you cannot play everyone, its the fairest way.
Every team in the 6 (bar 1) has thrashed us. And the only 1 that hasn't thrashed us is Melbourne and we play them in the last game. If we can beat them, it would be fair to think we could have made it if we'd started better. If not, it would be pretty hard to complain about missing finals.
Every team in the 6 (bar 1) has thrashed us. And the only 1 that hasn't thrashed us is Melbourne and we play them in the last game. If we can beat them, it would be fair to think we could have made it if we'd started better. If not, it would be pretty hard to complain about missing finals.
Don't think we will even be in the hunt next week - but I would love to know what the plan is to get under Tayla's skin...... and if pushed, she is likely to uncork one.
The AFLW is a different competition to the men's comp. I know a woman footy player (not at AFLW or even VFLW level) who is a big supporter of women's footy and Carlton's AFLW team too. Her sentiment appears to be pretty typical of AFLW supporters: they'd prefer to see the competition become stronger more than their own team winning. She was happy to see Harris go elsewhere and bore her absolutely no ill for doing so. AFLW supporters are happy to see players from their own team move to other teams if that makes the competition stronger. This is a bit foreign to us as we see those players as traitors. But I think you'll find there's very little antipathy towards Tayla Harris from Carlton players or the bulk of the supporters of our AFLW team.
If the last game were a do-or-die effort for us to get in the finals, maybe some players would do what it takes to put Harris off her game. But when we're fighting it out for a position outside the top 6, I don't think they'd go there, especially if all they manage to do is to provoke her into getting suspended.
Every team in the 6 (bar 1) has thrashed us. And the only 1 that hasn't thrashed us is Melbourne and we play them in the last game. If we can beat them, it would be fair to think we could have made it if we'd started better. If not, it would be pretty hard to complain about missing finals.
I'm not complaining about missing finals, we wouldn't win one of we did. I'm just highlighting the inequality in the fixture. That is, a team that has been largely thrashed by finals teams could have actually made it if the fixture was slightly different. To counteract that, the conference system that was in place solves that issue. This is doubley highlighted by the fact that the afl was basically hand-picking games/opponents at a moments notice due to covid.
TBH, we ended up better than I expected us off the back of our abysmal off-season.
I don't disagree with that. My post was completely written before I saw your post after pressing submit and the system invited me to review it. I thought they were pretty consistent but different enough to continue with the post. As it turned out, we had a tough draw.
Given more teams are coming into the AFLW comp, they really need to do something to reduce the inequalities in the draw, especially if they're not going to play more than 10 rounds.
Did anyone see the incident Prespakis was sanctioned for?
I vaguely recall a bit of a push and shove, but if it's the incident that I recall then the sanctions must surely go both ways as the Prespakis was retaliating to being hit.