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Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3915
@DJC
1.  They are paying a penalty.  They are effectively gambling with their health.  The vaccine doesnt stop spreading, therefore, getting vaccinated will likely not change how this thing moves.

2.  True enough, but only the left seem to use this tool.  It attacks the person not the idea.  A clock is still right twice a day even if it is broken.

3. Scientific method is fine, but even scientists agree that there is more than one way to do science and it would be unscientific not to question the science.  Food for thought there, our early modelling of covid made an assumption each positive case ends up with an ICU admission.  Our understanding of this has already changed.  We also have discovered asymptomatic spreading.  Our testing for that has and has not changed.  Symptoms still seem to be the dictation of when someone gets tested (unless near a confirmed positive case) when we should be prophylactic testing everyone in the more at risk settings.

Anyway, here is a quote:

Quote
The practices of science

But it’s not time to forget everything we thought we knew about how scientists work, says Heidi Schweingruber. She should know. She’s the deputy director of the Board on Science Education at the National Research Council, in Washington, D.C.

In the future, she says, students and teachers will be encouraged to think not about the scientific method, but instead about “practices of science” — or the many ways in which scientists look for answers.

Schweingruber and her colleagues recently developed a new set of national guidelines that highlight the practices central to how students should learn science.

“In the past, students have largely been taught there’s one way to do science,” she says. “It’s been reduced to ‘Here are the five steps, and this is how every scientist does it.’“

But that one-size-fits-all approach doesn’t reflect how scientists in different fields actually “do” science, she says.

"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3916
So right wingers don’t paint everyone else as wrong  :-*  :-*

Here’s a tip: don’t watch FoxNews or SkyNews or listen to Alan Jones and his ilk.

The problem with your ode to libertarianism is that anti-vaxxers are pushing propaganda and misinformation rather than trying to contribute to debate. And vaccine refusal risks the health of the rest of the population. By all means, if someone wants to smoke cigarettes, let them. But if they want to smoke in restaurants or the like then there are clashing individual freedoms, the right to smoke vs. the right to avoid 2nd-hand smoke.

You argued a while back that we should let Covid rip after those that wanted a vaccine had been vaccinated. Underpinning your argument was the idea that the vaccinated would then be safe. But we’ve all been debating the significance of breakthrough infections for the last few days: they do occur, so the unvaccinated do endanger the vaccinated. And the more the unvaccinated are infected, the greater the risk that there’ll be mutations that beat the vaccine.

Just get the damn jab.



We are still going to have to let this thing rip, with or without vaccination, seems to only change whom is protected to what level.

Vaccination against COVID is dangerous for some people.  That's no reason to not do it.  You are effectively applying the same argument in reverse.

Therefore our arguments are more on the same page, than not, just applied differently.  Ergo, we are both arguing against ourselves because neither can assert a position of correct, because what is right changes depending on your perspective.


I am not absolving right wingers, but you start with the position of attacking them to discredit them because they are right wingers.  Right wing ideals do have valid arguments, irrespective of if you agree with them.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3917
As you noted, our arguments aren’t diametrically opposed and that was true of our earlier discussion. I have no problems with such discussions. But you’d have to admit the right wingers in the US aren’t engaged in good faith arguments. For instance, all the FoxNews hosts are vaccinated and the channel has Covid protocols. Murdoch cancelled his 80th birthday party for fear of catching Covid. And yet their hosts bash the vaccine relentlessly, disputing its efficacy and alleging various conspiracies about it. Even though Trump could have claimed credit for the vaccine program, Republicans and other right wingers are increasingly spurning the vaccine and right wingers are ecstatic about that. It seems that “owning the libs” is all that matters and they’re willing to die for that privilege.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3918
And now there’s another Greek letter to worry about ... Lambda. And I’m not talking eigenvalues in linear algebra.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3919
As you noted, our arguments aren’t diametrically opposed and that was true of our earlier discussion. I have no problems with such discussions. But you’d have to admit the right wingers in the US aren’t engaged in good faith arguments. For instance, all the FoxNews hosts are vaccinated and the channel has Covid protocols. Murdoch cancelled his 80th birthday party for fear of catching Covid. And yet their hosts bash the vaccine relentlessly, disputing its efficacy and alleging various conspiracies about it. Even though Trump could have claimed credit for the vaccine program, Republicans and other right wingers are increasingly spurning the vaccine and right wingers are ecstatic about that. It seems that “owning the libs” is all that matters and they’re willing to die for that privilege.

I cant really comment on the states.  I see them as the current version of lets say the Roman Empire.  They are a waning empire, and I see evidence of the sphere of influence shifting over to China, and I haven't personally dismissed that this pandemic was launched by the States, in a false flag effort to point the finger at China for releasing said virus (if it is indeed man made).  Before anyone shouts this down, I am training in cyber security and this theory is in line with geopolitics and who is the bigger players in that space, and how they act.  USA uses attack as a form of defense, and that makes sense when you consider that most cyber technology was developed there giving them an edge.

With the news (this also applies to sports news), I came up with a simple formula a long time ago.  Propaganda.  Own the media, own the worlds opinion.  This is also a hall mark of the French Revolution which powers the people machine for an outcome.  You can topple governments with propaganda alone, because people will do it for you.

I do believe people should be encouraged to free think.  Pushing an opinion one way or another is IMHO, not encouraging people to use the brain power they possess and simply reduces everyone to a lemming.  That is a problem for me. 

I have taken the vaccine.  I made my choice, based on my factors, but fundamentally, the COVID risk is largely one I have been told about.  Numbers on the news statistics, and no real first hand knowledge of whether or not people have COVID, something and COVID etc.  I have heard people coughing and it sounds rough, but at the same time, its no worse than any other nasty cough I have heard someone have.  I have generally had to place my faith that this is all legitimate, real, and that the numbers are not a complete fabrication, in spite of what I have witnessed first hand, and the clear juxtaposition it shows me regarding the threat both perceived and qualified with data that could very well be painted with a certain light.  It is not helpful that I know first hand information of anyone who has become COVID positive but not seriously sick, and I don't necessarily want to find out that way either which makes things difficult from a belief perspective.  Before anyone refutes this, its a bit like knowing someone died.  There is a state of denial we go into where we cant really believe it, which is why I personally believe that mourning periods run for 40 days.  It is about coming to terms with it all, and skipping through the stages of grief, but this is also personal and different people get there on their own steam.

I got vaccinated, but I did so, for reasons that I came to the conclusion of my own volition using free thinking, and arrived at that conclusion.  I think that on a fundamental level, this should be encouraged, and any enforcement of vaccination serves only to make people not want it.  If you ever want to see that psychology at work force anyone to do something they arent sure about, and you quickly meet a more stubborn response and push back.  You want to see a population of anti vaxxer, from what I can see the quickest way to arrive there is force vaccination. 


The opposing ideals are very loud in my personal circles.  They range from a variety of sources both in the health care industry, and from non health care industries.  No one ever believes they are wrong, and arguing with them, is akin to having teeth pulled, because the counter arguments are dismissed before they are even heard.  Thing is they dont spout pseudo science.  I see them sharing videos such as how ethanol oxide is a carcinogen and is used to sterilise the swabs that people take when tested, and how this could contribute to a variety of cancers along the way.  I recognise this is imperfect, hence why I seem to sit on the fence a bit.  We simply ignore one risk for another, and all it takes is for someone to miss one risk (human error which is more likely to kill us than anything else from what I have witnessed) and we end up doing more harm than good, because we are focussed on one outcome.  The saying the road to hell is paved with good intentions.

Look, on a carlton forum its generally what I call a conversational think tank.  A place for people to raise some questions, not be dismissed as a subset of general society.  Its anonymous and people like myself come here to test theories that are much harder to discuss in the real world where the consequences are a bit more permanent (particularly when it comes to asking about Covid).

Oh and before we get to Lambda, we will go from Delta to Epsilon, Zeta, Theta, Iota, Kappa (its an alphabet I know explicitly, so will be interesting if we ever get to Omega).

;)


"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3920
Let’s hope it doesn’t get to Omega. In Star Trek canon, the Omega particle was capable of extinguishing all life.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3921
Let’s hope it doesn’t get to Omega. In Star Trek canon, the Omega particle was capable of extinguishing all life.

Good one Seven

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3922
It doesn't seem that long ago that we were discussing India, the virulence of the Delta strain and how well or how bad India was handling the pandemic.

It seems that COVID may be "modern India's worst human tragedy."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-21/india-covid-deaths-could-be-in-the-millions/100310602?utm_medium=social&utm_content=sf247814345&utm_campaign=fb_abc_news&utm_source=m.facebook.com&sf247814345=1&fbclid=IwAR2EuaETn3eGfGNnIQce__WyEYFKMo_hn3Bpwp9WkeUZMMpMfpN9iwvaqrQ
“Why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don’t you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don’t you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?”  Oddball

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3923
It doesn't seem that long ago that we were discussing India, the virulence of the Delta strain and how well or how bad India was handling the pandemic.

It seems that COVID may be "modern India's worst human tragedy."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-21/india-covid-deaths-could-be-in-the-millions/100310602?utm_medium=social&utm_content=sf247814345&utm_campaign=fb_abc_news&utm_source=m.facebook.com&sf247814345=1&fbclid=IwAR2EuaETn3eGfGNnIQce__WyEYFKMo_hn3Bpwp9WkeUZMMpMfpN9iwvaqrQ

Yes.  Calm the public.  Utter nonsense

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3924
The University of Melbourne modelling team that has guided Victorian Government responses to COVID outbreaks has crunched the NSW numbers:

https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/how-long-till-sydney-gets-out-of-lockdown
It's highly likely there are departments in both the State and Federal Health authorities that already had these types of figures, ............... and yet they can't pull the triggers!

Imagine the complaints if people were told 6 to 8 weeks from the get go, but we have to go early and hard, otherwise it's going to be 5 months!

What happened to just telling the public the truth?

I complain about naysayers and deniers being merchants of doubt, I think in our leaders we have a electoral college of certain uncertainty!
The Force Awakens!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3925
It's highly likely there are departments in both the State and Federal Health authorities that already had these types of figures, ............... and yet they can't pull the triggers!

Imagine the complaints if people were told 6 to 8 weeks from the get go, but we have to go early and hard, otherwise it's going to be 5 months!

What happened to just telling the public the truth?

I complain about naysayers and deniers being merchants of doubt, I think in our leaders we have a electoral college of certain uncertainty!

The modelling team offers their services to any governments, free of charge.  Their work is fascinating and it’s incredible how slight changes to a variable will result in very different outcomes.

Best of all, they’re so open and transparent with their work.
“Why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don’t you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don’t you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?”  Oddball

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3926
The University of Melbourne modelling team that has guided Victorian Government responses to COVID outbreaks has crunched the NSW numbers:

https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/how-long-till-sydney-gets-out-of-lockdown

Great article, thank you, David. (I trust you realise my comment about Gladys doing a great job with her consistency to keep daily nos high was heavily laced with sarcasm  ;) ) So had Gladys adopted the VIC model from the get-go how many weeks of lockdown & lockdown lite could have been avoided?
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3927
Interesting developments.

In the US, conservative politicians and media are starting to advocate vaccination. Previously, FoxNews’ nighttime hosts were anti-vaxxers and you’d have to think management was supporting or orchestrating that for ratings and therefore $$. But Sean Hannity has now told viewers he has been vaccinated and it’s safe and effective, urging viewers to do the same. Chris Ruddy, owner of Newsmax, has released an editorial extolling vaccinations. Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida and a Republican leading the chase to be the Republican Presidential candidate in 2024 has begged Floridians to vaccinate, saying that just about all of the recent admissions to hosputal were unvaccinated. Mitch McConnell, GOP Senate leader, and Steve Scalise, GOP deputy leader in the House, have both joined in calls to vaccinate. This is a welcome development even if Trump supporters might be unmoved. Why now? Maybe conservatives are realising they don’t want to go to the 2022 midterms as the anti-vaxxer party, especially after Biden used his bully pulpit to call them out.

It also seems that Singapore has backflipped on its “learn to live with Covid” strategy, according to News.com.au. Only 4 days ago, restrictions were relaxed, e.g. groups of 5 vaccinated people could eat in restaurants (up from 2) and 5 people could socialise. But Covid then spiked and now restrictions have been reintroduced, e.g. only takeaway food is allowed and groups of more than 2 are prohibited.
https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/singapore-reintroduces-covid19-restrictions-days-after-relaxing-rules/news-story/d9ec0e764ce24e0279a2bf7c2fba1d45

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3928
It also seems that Singapore has backflipped on its “learn to live with Covid” strategy, according to News.com.au. Only 4 days ago, restrictions were relaxed, e.g. groups of 5 vaccinated people could eat in restaurants (up from 2) and 5 people could socialise. But Covid then spiked and now restrictions have been reintroduced, e.g. only takeaway food is allowed and groups of more than 2 are prohibited.
https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/singapore-reintroduces-covid19-restrictions-days-after-relaxing-rules/news-story/d9ec0e764ce24e0279a2bf7c2fba1d45
Ignoring what is happening in most places this is a hell of a tell. I'd say Singapore was "The Gold Standard" for Sars-CoV-2 preparedness, having learned the lessons of the original Sars. Then just a few weeks back they were all in with the UK in calling for borders to be opened up to save the economies, and now as you point out Singapore has flipped. I think it's a safe bet the UK might be back in the bleachers soon as well.

A lot of this is because they see the infected average age dropping very quickly, ICU's are no longer the preserve of +65 year olds or the chronically ill comorbidities, we are seeing otherwise healthy 20 or 30 somethings starting to fill beds.

Then there is the rising infection rate in the under 16 sector, which for the original strains was almost rarer than hens teeth, but is now becoming common place.

I am cynical though, because I suspect the aging bureaucrats and politicians no longer see themselves getting priority access to an ICU bed when they may be competing for slots with children and youths. So now they are "Ya'll better get a vaccine!"
The Force Awakens!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #3929
Ignoring what is happening in most places this is a hell of a tell. I'd say Singapore was "The Gold Standard" for Sars-CoV-2 preparedness, having learned the lessons of the original Sars. Then just a few weeks back they were all in with the UK in calling for borders to be opened up to save the economies, and now as you point out Singapore has flipped. I think it's a safe bet the UK might be back in the bleachers soon as well.

A lot of this is because they see the infected average age dropping very quickly, ICU's are no longer the preserve of +65 year olds or the chronically ill comorbidities, we are seeing otherwise healthy 20 or 30 somethings starting to fill beds.

Then there is the rising infection rate in the under 16 sector, which for the original strains was almost rarer than hens teeth, but is now becoming common place.

I am cynical though, because I suspect the aging bureaucrats and politicians no longer see themselves getting priority access to an ICU bed when they may be competing for slots with children and youths. So now they are "Ya'll better get a vaccine!"

The whole use of the term 'infection' is a con if you're basing it on positive PCR test results. Without clinical diagnosis.

Here in Victoria, with the fabulous BGI (B = Beijing) PCR test:

"Any result up to Ct of 40 is considered positive. Cycle thresholds of 40-45 are examined with further testing."

https://health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2020/06/post-market-validation-of-the-beijing-genomics-institute-bgi-sars-cov-2-real-time-pcr-platform.pdf

NSW run their tests at up to 40 to 45x cycles.

The great Fauci says, in This Week in Virology this month:

“If you get a cycle threshold of 35 or more … the chances of it being replication-competent are minuscule.”

Which is backed up by the science.

Quote
At a ct of 30, 20% of samples remained positive; at a ct of 35, 3% ; "at a ct above 35, no sample remained positive (infectious) in cell culture.

Other studies suggest a lower cycle threshold number is necessary for some level of validity:

https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/71/10/2663/5842165

Quote
SARS-CoV-2 Vero cell infectivity was only observed for RT-PCR Ct < 24 and STT < 8 days. Infectivity of patients with Ct > 24 and duration of symptoms > 8 days may be low. This information can inform public health policy and guide clinical...

Kary Mullis himself said 20x (which is 2 to the power of 20 remember) was the maximum that should be used.

Essentially 100% false positives at cycle threshold numbers of 35 or more.

https://swprs.org/the-trouble-with-pcr-tests/

Moreover, as the WHO states:

Quote
The cycle threshold needed to detect virus is inversely proportional to the patient’s viral load. Where test results do not correspond with clinical presentation, a new specimen should be taken and retested using the same or different NAT [Nucleic Acid Technology] technology.

And this is why the pollies get to muck around with our lives at their whim - off the back of an unfit for purpose test, never designed or meant for diagnostic purposes.
Finals, then 4 in a row!