Re: CV and mad panic behaviour
Reply #1511 –
For those waiting for a vaccine, as the politicians keep telling us that it is already organised if successfully developed.
I heard a nice summary of the chances of a successful vaccine from an immunologist talking on a Nature or Science Podcast.
Vaccine in trials proceed at the rate of 1 in 10 for each stage, with typically 4 or 5 stages but as many as 6 stages.
So that would mean;
Stage 1; 10% Proceed to Stage 2
Stage 2: 10% Proceed to Stage 3
Stage 3: 10% Proceed to Stage 4
Stage 4 through 6: About 10% Proceed Manufacturing
That is one vaccine out of every ten thousand investigated.
The speaker did reiterate that this will no be the case for the COVID vaccine, why;
Authorities have already conceded they must accept more risk to quickly find viable COVID vaccines!
Also mentioned was the fact that getting a vaccine does not mean being free of infection. Apparently many vaccines can reduce or eliminate the symptoms, but still leave the person open to be infected and capable of transmitting the virus to others, which is a major reasons many vaccines fail late in clinical trials, the vaccine makes you a super-spreader because you get infected without getting sick!