AFL Rd 17 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Fremantle

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Re: AFL Rd 17 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Fremantle

Reply #45 – July 10, 2023, 02:59:19 pm

Quote from: Lods on July 10, 2023, 09:44:09 am

Sorry for your loss LoveNavy but that would have been a lovely day for you yesterday to see your Dad's contribution remembered in such a fashion.

And then to come home to see a good win.
Groundhog day.

Thankyou.
It was indeed sweet.

To add, the rain held off all day (a rarity) and the reserves and league won in true 'never say die' fashion. The colts were going to forfeit with - 6. In true country style, a few juniors pulled on the boots and they played in the similar fashion. This is the club culture.

Re: AFL Rd 17 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Fremantle

Reply #46 – July 10, 2023, 03:32:50 pm

A lot of talk about the ruck so you know i have to post the stats.

Hitouts:
Freo - 70
Carlton - 18

Centre Clearances
Freo - 9
Carlton - 8

Total clearances
Freo - 35
Carlton - 41

Hitouts to advantage
Freo - 22 (20 to Darcy)
Carlton - 4

To me that showed Darcy was most effective in the centre bounces with Freo getting more clearances from there, but our mids were clearly best on the day getting a lot from around the ground. It shows that although Freo got first use (through Darcy) our relentless pressure on the ball carrier meant that they did not get any easy possessions

In terms of individuals.
Young had 58 ruck contests, 10 hitouts, 2 to advantage - 3.4% RC-HTA%
Harry had 26, 6 and 1 - 3.8%
Jack had 20, 2 and 1 - 5%
(Darcy had 85 - 58 and 20 - 23.5%)
(Jackson had 20 - 11 and 2 - 10%)

Freo ruck stats are good.....if they are up against a recognised ruck.
They are very poor considering who their opponents were.

As an example, Pittonet vs Dogs (English w/ Lobb) had 21.6% RC-HTA. I think i read that English was in someone AA team right now.
So Pittonets ruck work vs AA ruckman is/was as good as Darcys vs nobody's.

Re: AFL Rd 17 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Fremantle

Reply #47 – July 10, 2023, 03:37:52 pm

Hitouts are useless it seems.

Re: AFL Rd 17 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Fremantle

Reply #48 – July 10, 2023, 03:44:30 pm

Quote from: madbluboy on July 10, 2023, 03:37:52 pm

Hitouts are useless it seems.

Which is what i've been saying all year.
Hitouts to advantage are the only thing that is worth looking at, but even that can be counteracted if you have elite pressure for the entire game, which we did.
How do you get elite pressure? Well it starts by not carrying 2 rucks!

Re: AFL Rd 17 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Fremantle

Reply #49 – July 10, 2023, 03:53:45 pm

Quote from: kruddler on July 10, 2023, 03:44:30 pm

Which is what i've been saying all year.
Hitouts to advantage are the only thing that is worth looking at, but even that can be counteracted if you have elite pressure for the entire game, which we did.
How do you get elite pressure? Well it starts by not carrying 2 rucks!

I have come around on that but unfortunately I'm going to disagree on who the one ruckman is.

Re: AFL Rd 17 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Fremantle

Reply #50 – July 10, 2023, 04:01:50 pm

Coaches' votes :

10 Adam Cerra (CARL)
6 Patrick Cripps (CARL)
4 Sam Walsh (CARL)
4 Luke Ryan (FRE)
2 Harry McKay (CARL)
2 Adam Saad (CARL)
1 Jacob Weitering (CARL)
1 Charlie Curnow (CARL)

Re: AFL Rd 17 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Fremantle

Reply #51 – July 10, 2023, 04:12:24 pm

Quote from: madbluboy on July 10, 2023, 03:37:52 pm

Hitouts are useless it seems.

It depends on who is hitting them and who is in position to reap the rewards.

I think that our plan was to disrupt the hitouts so that they didn't provide an advantage to the Freo mids. Young and Silvagni put a lot of effort into buffeting Darcy and Jackson so that their hitouts weren't well-directed. Our mids were able to shark the hitouts or shut down the Freo mids when they did gather hitouts. It's a situation where a "hitouts to disadvantage" statistic would be useful.

Re: AFL Rd 17 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Fremantle

Reply #52 – July 10, 2023, 04:19:48 pm

Quote from: DJC on July 10, 2023, 04:12:24 pm

It depends on who is hitting them and who is in position to reap the rewards.

I think that our plan was to disrupt the hitouts so that they didn't provide an advantage to the Freo mids. Young and Silvagni put a lot of effort into buffeting Darcy and Jackson so that their hitouts weren't well-directed. Our mids were able to shark the hitouts or shut down the Freo mids when they did gather hitouts. It's a situation where a "hitouts to disadvantage" statistic would be useful.

Yes, hitouts sharked is the official term and i've only managed to track it down by contacted Champion data directly, and that was a summary of 50 rucks from the first 12 rounds or so. Nothing on a game by game breakdown etc. They only gave it to me as a one off because i sweet talked them

I have often used Silvagni as an example of what you described. Might not win the contest, but ensure the opposition has a hard time of it by bodying the ruckmen out of the way. Something someone like Young lacks in comparison.....and TDK largely as well.

It was very much a team performance.

Re: AFL Rd 17 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Fremantle

Reply #53 – July 10, 2023, 04:33:18 pm

Quote from: madbluboy on July 10, 2023, 03:53:45 pm

I have come around on that but unfortunately I'm going to disagree on who the one ruckman is.

Well at least you've seen the light.....2 rucks are a waste.

Realistically, If TDK got halfway near where his potential is, he should be our #1 ruck picked. I think a couple times over the past 12 months he probably has been. However, his inconsistency, and is lack of aggression work against him.

Around the ground, he offers 1 disposal more than Pittonet does this year....but that is also with 8% more game time on average. So roughly 10 minutes more TOG and gets 1 possession in that time. So there is SFA between them in pure numbers - posted comparison elsewhere in the past week. Pittonet has played a lot of this year injured/underdone so long term those %'s might not hold up.

IMO Pittonets advantage in ruck craft is why he deserves the #1 mantle. His tapwork is elite. His aggression is something we don't get from anyone else on the ground (who is somewhat comparable in size at least)

Re: AFL Rd 17 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Fremantle

Reply #54 – July 10, 2023, 04:47:14 pm

Here's the problem though.
We mostly rate Tom on what he might be capable of...
Hope of his potential being realised.

But if he's not playing seniors how is he to realise that potential.
Playing VFL won't do it for him.
It's a different game in terms of pressure, structure, team-mates, opposition and other variables.

If he's behind Pittonet and Pittonet is performing and we go with the one ruck he never gets the chance.

Re: AFL Rd 17 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Fremantle

Reply #55 – July 10, 2023, 04:49:56 pm

Quote from: Lods on July 10, 2023, 04:47:14 pm

Here's the problem though.
We mostly rate Tom on what he might be capable of...
Hope of his potential being realised.

But if he's not playing seniors how is he to realise that potential.
Playing VFL won't do it for him.
It's a different game in terms of pressure, structure, team-mates, opposition and other variables.

If he's behind Pittonet and Pittonet is performing and we go with the one ruck he never gets the chance.

If Pittonet is performing, and we are winning, why do we wanna change that?

Rucks (at least our rucks) always get injured, so there will always be an opportunity.
Of course, if Harry/Charlie get injured, TDK is first called up there as well.

I just think playing someone because he COULD be better is a good way to ruin something good.
TDK hasn't been able to dominate VFL level yet. Let him knock down that door before we play the woe is me card for him.

Re: AFL Rd 17 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Fremantle

Reply #56 – July 10, 2023, 04:53:50 pm

Quote from: LoveNavy on July 09, 2023, 10:54:03 pm

Late to the party and didn't see the game.

I was invited to a grass roots country football game. My recently deceased dad was a life member who'd filled every position from president to line marker, to water boy. He also played 400+ league games and coached juniors through to the league, winning multiple premierships.

To our surprise the club dedicated todays game to him. It will be an annual tribute match. All very moving for the family. He was such a humble man, we had no idea of the extent to which, he improved the on field performance and lives of so many people.

Arriving home to a big W v Dockers felt like a wonderful end to the weekend. The comments I've read so far are very encouraging, even heart-warming!
I can't wait to watch the replay.

Go Blues.

400 games !!

Reckon I would have enjoyed a chat over a beer or two with your Dad, the stories would be rolling out all session.

Re: AFL Rd 17 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Fremantle

Reply #57 – July 10, 2023, 05:03:41 pm

Haven't see the game yet as I was working down in the Illawarra ...... (hello Lods).

Raydan did ring me whilst I was driving home and made a point of how 'crushing' the tackling was, he also pointed out the 'team first' mentality that was out there too.

Sounds like there is something to get really pleased about with this one, will try and watch the game over the next couple of days.

Re: AFL Rd 17 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Fremantle

Reply #58 – July 10, 2023, 05:04:11 pm

Quote from: kruddler on July 10, 2023, 04:49:56 pm

If Pittonet is performing, and we are winning, why do we wanna change that?

Rucks (at least our rucks) always get injured, so there will always be an opportunity.
Of course, if Harry/Charlie get injured, TDK is first called up there as well.

I just think playing someone because he COULD be better is a good way to ruin something good.
TDK hasn't been able to dominate VFL level yet. Let him knock down that door before we play the woe is me card for him.

He'll get a run, once fit, while Pittonet is injured.
But if we don't play him for the rest of the year once Pittonet returns we can probably kiss him goodbye.

I'm also having a bit of a problem with the 'hit-out to advantage' being a useful stat either.
We had 4 in 120 minutes of football and won the game by 50+ points
That's as useful as breasts on a male bovine.

Ruckmen are an endangered species.
They'll go the same way as the 'Rover'

Re: AFL Rd 17 2023 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Fremantle

Reply #59 – July 10, 2023, 05:15:02 pm

Quote from: LordLucifer on July 10, 2023, 04:53:50 pm

400 games !!

Reckon I would have enjoyed a chat over a beer or two with your Dad, the stories would be rolling out all session.

Virtually uninjured in 20yrs. He consistently ran 7 miles each way for training. That probably helped.

Family, football, friends, coaching/mentoring, fishing, and a cold frothy were some of his favourite things. I have no doubt he'd love to hear your stories. So would I for that matter. For a new thread maybe.