What time is it?

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What time is it?

January 05, 2018, 04:24:37 pm

This is by far the worst time of the year, with no football to speak and barely anything of note to discuss. So to cure my boredom I've done a little analysis of all 18 teams and where I believe they are on the 'Premiership Clock' as a bit of a discussion point.

I've added how many star players each team has, in either Bona Fide, Rising or Fading stars. This is where it might get a little subjective, but the way I rate a 'star' is if they'd walk onto any other list in the AFL and carry the same or greater star power. That's why I haven't included players like Marc Murphy who is obviously a star for us, but perhaps wouldn't be if he was in a much stronger midfield (ie would he have just won a B+F if he were playing for GWS). As for the Rising Stars, I haven't included any unproven kids, only those who have played enough games to suggest they're probably going to be elite in their position. There were a couple of players that it was hard to determine if they were Rising or Bona Fide (see Clayton Oliver) but I've gone with gut feel.

Adelaide

Time: 23:50

Should have won the premiership in 2017, should be favourites in 2018. Gibbs in is a big plus and they already have the best forward line in the comp. Jake Lever out hurts them, but they seem to have some decent young depth.

Bona Fide Stars

Eddie Betts, Rory Sloane, Daniel Talia, Matt Crouch

Rising Stars

Mitch McGovern

Fading Stars

None

Brisbane

Time: 11:00

Almost at the point where they have all the pieces in place, now it's just time for them to get games into kids. Their biggest challenge will continue to be retention, although that already looks to be improving. They have Hipwood to build a forward line around and a great bunch of young mids and defenders. Charlie Cameron is a great get, they're probably just 1 KPF short of having all the pieces after Schache left.

Bona Fide Stars

Dayne Zorko

Rising Stars

Alex Witherden, Eric Hipwood, Charlie Cameron, Hugh McCluggage

Fading Stars

Luke Hodge, Stefan Martin

Carlton

Time: 12:00

Similar to Brisbane, Carlton are now in prime position to start their ascent up the ladder. Carlton are probably slightly more advanced given the investment in and retention of gun young players over the past few draft periods. No obvious holes in the list, it's now more an issue of getting games into players and hoping they develop as intended. Now probably at the half way point to a drought breaking Premiership.

Bona Fide Stars

Patrick Cripps, Matthew Kreuzer, Sam Docherty

Rising Stars

Charlie Curnow, Sam Petrevski-Seton, Jacob Weitering, Caleb Marchbank

Fading Stars

Kade Simpson

Collingwood

Time: 13:00

A team that appears to be heading backwards, they have a certain amount of talent on their list, but most of that is in their elder players. They have a wealth of midfield depth but no tall scoring power. They have some of the best small forwards in the comp, but can't keep them on the park. Buckley doesn't seem well placed to get the most out of his players, and to me, they look like they'd be better serviced investing in a complete rebuild while they still have some players with currency. Expect them though to try and buy their way out with some pricey Free Agents this year.

Bona Fide Stars

Scott Pendlebury, Adam Treloar

Rising Stars

Darcy Moore

Fading Stars

Daniel Wells

Essendon

Time: 20:00

In that weird position where they could go either way this season. Managed to bring in some new players in the trade period for the first time in a long time, but also lost some experienced players through retirement. The drugs saga has knocked them around a bit, so it's hard to get a good read on them. Personally I think they'll go backwards before forwards, but Richmond won the Premiership, so literally anything is possible. Thanks to their drug cheating penalties and resulting poor performance for a couple of seasons, they've managed to pick up some great young players, but they're probably lacking the depth required to go to that next level.

Bona Fide Stars

Zach Merrett, Joe Daniher, Michael Hurley

Rising Stars

Andrew McGrath, Darcy Parish, Orazio Fantasia

Fading Stars

Brendon Goddard

Fremantle

Time: 03:00

Ross the Boss strikes again. As modern history has shown, the greatest coaches know how to build, develop and lead a team of superstars. Ross seems capable of doing only one of those things. He took a Freo team that was on the brink of breaking through and took them to a Grand Final appearance, but when age and injury starting catching up to them, it's become evident that once again he has very few tricks up his sleeve. His major test will come over the next couple of years, now that he's got some high end draft talent onto the list, let's see what he does with them. They're probably a couple more draft/trade periods away from being able to make a proper run up the ladder.

Bona Fide Stars

Nat Fyfe, Lachie Neale, Brad Hill

Rising Stars

Sean Darcy

Fading Stars

David Mundy, Aaron Sandilands

Geelong

Time: 22:30

Luck with injury will make or break Geelong this season. They have all the talent needed to be a genuine Premiership contender, but lack in depth if anything were to happen to their preferred 22. The fitness and form of Tom Hawkins will largely dictate their success, as their KPF depth is probably their weakest link. They've been shrewd in the trade period, bring in some solid talent to beef up thier list, but their consistent success over the past decade has meant that they don't have a lot of elite young talent coming through, if any at all.

Bona Fide Stars

Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood, Mitch Duncan

Rising Stars

None

Fading Stars

Gary Ablett Jr, Harry Taylor, Tom Hawkins

Gold Coast

Time: 04:00

Gold Coast are in an interesting situation, they've lost a lot of senior talent over the past couple of seasons, but as a result they've been able to hit the draft pretty hard. Their success is reliant on two things; retention and development. If Stewy Dew can develop these highly rated youngsters and retain their star players (namely Tom Lynch this season) then they can join the likes of Brisbane and Carlton as one of the exciting youngs teams of the comp. I wouldn't want to be trading out any more #2 draft picks though.

Bona Fide Stars

Tom Lynch, Steven May

Rising Stars

Jack Martin, Kade Kolodjashnij, Lachie Weller, Peter Wright, Ben Ainsworth

Fading Stars

Pearce Hanley

GWS

Time: 23:00

Perhaps the biggest enigma in the comp, on paper GWS should be dominating their rivals each week, but for some reason this team of theoretical superstars just can't mesh. They definitely have all the tools in place, so if something clicks this season the Premiership could very well be theirs. Not convinced that Leon Cameron is the coach they need either.

Bona Fide Stars

Josh Kelly, Jeremy Cameron, Dylan Shiel, Callan Ward

Rising Stars

Jacob Hopper, Tim Taranto

Fading Stars

Brett Deledio, Heath Shaw, Ryan Griffen

Hawthorn

Time: 00:30

Years of sustained success and 4 Premierships now mean that Hawthorn are almost back at square one. Some poor trade moves in recent years have also depleted the young talent they've been able to bring onto the list, however they've still managed to unearth some gems, and get a genuine star in Tom Mitchell for a bargain. Despite what looks to be a poor situation for the list, Al Clarkson has shown that he's willing to be ruthless in order to build a superstar team as quickly as possible. Knowing this, they won't be down and out for long.

Bona Fide Stars

Tom Mitchell, Jack Gunston

Rising Stars

Ryan Burton

Fading Stars

Jarryd Roughead, Paul Puopolo, Shaun Burgoyne, Cyril Rioli

Melbourne

Time: 20:00

The pressure is on Simon Goodwin and his men in 2018. On paper they now seem to have all the tools to be a genuine threat in the comp, but poor discipline and a tendency to lose the games they shouldn't has meant they still haven't experienced finals action in over a decade. Hopefully using the Bulldogs and Richmond as motivation, they'll see that a few minor adjustments are all that stands between long term irrelevance and the ultimate success.

Bona Fide Stars

Jesse Hogan, Jack Viney, Jake Lever, Max Gawn, Clayton Oliver

Rising Stars

Christian Petracca, Oscar McDonald

Fading Stars

Jordan Lewis

North Melbourne

Time: 00:05

Perhaps the most irrelevant club in the AFL, there is literally nothing that excites me about North Melbourne. The perennial underachiever, seemingly content to have made a couple of unexpected preliminary finals. They thought their Premiership window was open and topped up on ageing players from other clubs without success. In 2017 they had their opportunity to shed some players from their list and try to hit the draft hard, but instead sat on their hands, happy to do the bare minimum. With their sub-par facilities, lack of profile and 'barely there' membership, they're not a club that's going to be able to land any viable Free Agents or wantaway stars from other clubs. With their inability to be ruthless with their list, any trade currency is rapidly dwindling. They also have one of the least inspiring coaches in the AFL. Brad Scott has done nothing to evidence his ability to grow and develop a successful team, North would have been better to cut their losses and experiment with a new, more innovative coach.

Bona Fide Stars

Ben Brown

Rising Stars

Brayden Preuss

Fading Stars

Jarrad Waite, Todd Goldstein

Port Adelaide

Time: 22:00

Went hard at the Free Agency and Trade table in 2017, so it will be interesting to see if that pays off this season. Some exciting young talent at Port and some good leadership depth in their older players. One of those teams that can be a real contender if enough clicks into place. Probably needs a couple of the kids to take another step this season and hope that their new recruits mesh with the team quickly. That coupled with some luck with injuries and Port could be a real powerhouse (pun intended) this year.

Bona Fide Stars

Ollie Wines, Paddy Ryder, Robbie Gray, Chad Wingard, Charlie Dixon

Rising Stars

Sam Powell-Pepper, Darcy Byrne-Jones

Fading Stars

Travis Boak

Richmond

Time: 23:15

I'm still in genuine disbelief that they won the Premiership. They're the Premiership equivalent of Shane Woewodin's Brownlow. But to their credit they've shown that perseverence and a bit of self belief can take you a long way. I don't think back-to-back is an option, but given what happened last season, I'm not willing to discount anything. I do believe though that teams will take them a bit more seriously this year, coupled with a harder draw I think they're more likely to drop down a little in the pecking order.

Bona Fide Stars

Dustin Martin, Trent Cotchin, Alex Rance

Rising Stars

Daniel Rioli, Jack Graham,

Fading Stars

None

St Kilda

Time: 19:30

In a similar boat to Melbourne, but I'm a little less bullish about the Saints. They've managed to draft a number of solid players, but perhaps not a lot of elite young players. With the retirements of Riewoldt and Montagna, they're going to need some of the kids to really step up if they want to play finals in 2018. A team that should be exciting, but just isn't for some reason.

Bona Fide Stars

Jack Steven

Rising Stars

Jade Gresham, Jack Billings

Fading Stars

David Armitage

Sydney

Time: 23:45

The dog that just won't die. Regardless of how we think we can rate Sydney, they're the team that always seems to find a way to stay relevant. Through some generous Academy concessions and shrewd drafting/trading, they've managed to keep replenishing their list despite a long period of success. When a team can afford to give away Tom Mitchell for a solitary, lateish first round draft pick, they doing ok for themselves.

Bona Fide Stars

Buddy Franklin, Josh Kennedy, Dan Hannebery, Isaac Heeney, Callum Mills, Luke Parker

Rising Stars

Zak Jones, Tom Papley, Will Hayward

Fading Stars

Jarrad McVeigh, Kurt Tippett, Kieran Jack

West Coast

Time: 06:00

At 6 o'clock but heading backwards. It's hard to imagine that only a few years ago they were playing in a Grand Final, now with an ageing list and very few promising youngsters, they're really relying on the development of their latest draft haul. It was an interesting move by the Eagles to trade out of the first round of next years 'Superdraft' for a number of picks in what was commonly perceived throughout the industry as a particularly shallow draft. But we can never truly know the quality of a draft until years after the fact.

Bona Fide Stars

Eliott Yeo, Andrew Gaff, Jeremy McGovern, Nic Naitanui

Rising Stars

Dom Sheed

Fading Stars

Mark LeCras, Josh Kennedy, Shannon Hurn

Western Bulldogs

Time: 23:15

If 2016 was the year of the Dog, 2017 was a year they would desperately want to forget. The first team to miss the finals the year after winning the Premiership since Hawthron in 2009, nothing seemed to go right on or off field for the Dogs. A bit of disharmony amongt the playing group, and perhaps a bit of diconnect with the coach, the Dogs need to rediscover themselves this year. I think it's completely achievable though. Getting rid of Stringer was the right move, but losing Murphy and Boyd to retirement will mean that more of their young guys need to step up in their leadship. It's time for Tom Liberatore to pull his head in and focus more on his footy and less on his partying. Now that Tom Boyd's chief tormentor has left the club, hopefully he can refocus his energies on football also. He and Josh Shache could form quite a potent forward line if they can get their heads right. A lot of question marks over the Dogs this year, but still very much have a list capable of doing some real damage.

Bona Fide Stars

Marcus Bontempelli, Jack Macrae, Luke Dahlhaus

Rising Stars

Josh Dunkley, Toby McLean, Josh Schache

Fading Stars

None

Re: What time is it?

Reply #1 – January 05, 2018, 04:45:32 pm

Great stuff NM. Couldn't find a spot for Ol Mate Gibba in Adelaide's Bona Fide stars list?

Re: What time is it?

Reply #2 – January 05, 2018, 04:57:51 pm

Quote from: Gointocarlton on January 05, 2018, 04:45:32 pm

Great stuff NM. Couldn't find a spot for Ol Mate Gibba in Adelaide's Bona Fide stars list?

Haha not quite, but their Captain didn't get in either. I think Bryce can definitely be a genuine star of the comp though, this year will be his test.

Re: What time is it?

Reply #3 – January 05, 2018, 05:49:39 pm

Interesting concept NM. Not sure I agree with all the final times, but that's par for the course. Everyone will have a different list.

Re: What time is it?

Reply #4 – January 05, 2018, 06:32:04 pm

I still can't believe they won it also, when it flashes across my mind I still think of it as this really bad dream. Doesn't seem real.

So like last year, I think the premiership clocks will be dependent on how the more fancied teams do again this year, and if there is no clear stand out team again any of the others can potentially build enough momentum and confidence and pinch one like the Tigers and Dogs.

Re: What time is it?

Reply #5 – January 05, 2018, 08:09:31 pm

Thank you, NM, for the most entertaining and insightful things I've seen about football this summer. An excellent tome with good explanations. Well done.

It is difficult to argue with your conclusions either. I find it refreshing that someone can see us as being on the upward path. Most of the scribes ignore us: a serious error.
I still find it difficult to believe Richmond did it in 2017: just goes to show what a shocking year I had. I can only hope they return to their normal habits in 2018. Unfortunately, I can't see them dropping much.

Re: What time is it?

Reply #6 – January 06, 2018, 12:48:51 am

Thankyou NM. A wonderfully well thought out commentary. As good if not better than much of what I've read from the so called experts. Well done.
It is certainly a long off season. I hope your thread generates lots of opinion from fellow Bluebaggers.

I will be one very happy camper if we finish ahead of those with lesser times

Go Blues.

Re: What time is it?

Reply #7 – January 06, 2018, 01:55:28 am

Quote from: PaulP on January 05, 2018, 05:49:39 pm

Interesting concept NM. Not sure I agree with all the final times, but that's par for the course. Everyone will have a different list.

Care to elaborate? I’m desperate for more footy discussion.

To be honest, there were a few that I was uncertain on, but tried to remove bias from....it killed me to rate the Scum as having a chance.

Re: What time is it?

Reply #8 – January 06, 2018, 07:56:16 am

NM having another close look, I wouldnt rate Hawthorn so lo nor CheatsFC so hight. That is, I cant see Hawthorn falling away that much and I cant see CheatsFC rising much more than they did this year. I agree, they have managed to pick up a few good ones courtesy of there cheating ways. I dont think Saad (HB flanker), Stringer (front runner) and Smith (overrated and injury prone) will make a huge difference.
I would guess Hawthorn will be in the 8 purely because of the wiiley old fox Clarkson. Missing the finals this year would have stung him like mad and will have been stewing over it all summer come round round 1. He and his fellow coaches would have devised a plan to rectify that wrong make no mistake. Time will tell.

Re: What time is it?

Reply #9 – January 06, 2018, 08:24:33 am

Well done NM.

A couple of iffs and buts but overall a damn good job.

I wouldn't call Josh Kennedy on the way out at the WC yet though.

Re: What time is it?

Reply #10 – January 06, 2018, 08:41:28 am

Thanks for your honest and unbiased assessment NM. It's good to read something so objective that is not pushing a predetermined agenda.

Re: What time is it?

Reply #11 – January 06, 2018, 10:25:47 am

Quote from: cookie2 on January 06, 2018, 08:41:28 am

Thanks for your honest and unbiased assessment NM. It's good to read something so objective that is not pushing a predetermined agenda.

Re: What time is it?

Reply #12 – January 06, 2018, 12:34:21 pm

Quote from: Navy Maven on January 06, 2018, 01:55:28 am

Care to elaborate? I’m desperate for more footy discussion.

To be honest, there were a few that I was uncertain on, but tried to remove bias from....it killed me to rate the Scum as having a chance.

For me, there are two approaches one could take :

1. the approach you've taken, which I call the graduated scale approach, where you can look at the various criteria, lists, coaches etc., and tease out from this whether certain teams are ahead of others.

2. A simpler approach, where you essentially have 2 groups : 1. genuine premiership contenders, and 2. the rest.

I can see the merit in both, but to me, teams like Essendon are not really any closer to the next flag than we are. They are without doubt closer to playing finals than we are, but making up the numbers in the 8 is one thing - being a genuine flag chance is quite another. The leap required to go from 5-8 to 1-4 in the H/A is greater than going from, say 9-12 to 5-8. At least IMO.

And as an aside, I don't understand the consternation towards Richmond. They finished 3rd, missing top 2 by 2 points, with a higher % than the 2nd placed Geelong. They lost several games by single digit figures. A stray kick here or there and they would have finished 1st. They were absolutely in the mix, in the 2nd half of the season, and certainly in finals.

Re: What time is it?

Reply #13 – January 06, 2018, 02:19:05 pm

Quote from: PaulP on January 06, 2018, 12:34:21 pm

For me, there are two approaches one could take :

1. the approach you've taken, which I call the graduated scale approach, where you can look at the various criteria, lists, coaches etc., and tease out from this whether certain teams are ahead of others.

2. A simpler approach, where you essentially have 2 groups : 1. genuine premiership contenders, and 2. the rest.

I can see the merit in both, but to me, teams like Essendon are not really any closer to the next flag than we are. They are without doubt closer to playing finals than we are, but making up the numbers in the 8 is one thing - being a genuine flag chance is quite another. The leap required to go from 5-8 to 1-4 in the H/A is greater than going from, say 9-12 to 5-8. At least IMO.

And as an aside, I don't understand the consternation towards Richmond. They finished 3rd, missing top 2 by 2 points, with a higher % than the 2nd placed Geelong. They lost several games by single digit figures. A stray kick here or there and they would have finished 1st. They were absolutely in the mix, in the 2nd half of the season, and certainly in finals.

Probably because they aren't that good.

But, due to everyone else being a bit Ho hum, they could even go back to back.

Fwiw a couple of years back, cotchin was in Murphy Territory of being the leagues worst captain.

Things can and do change quickly. A couple of injuries and the Tigers would fall apart rapidly. Not convinced by them at all.

They aren't like hawthorn or Geelong when they were up. These two sides oozed class and talent and when they played looked really good.

Re: What time is it?

Reply #14 – January 06, 2018, 02:34:50 pm

Quote from: Thryleon on January 06, 2018, 02:19:05 pm

Probably because they aren't that good.

But, due to everyone else being a bit Ho hum, they could even go back to back.

Fwiw a couple of years back, cotchin was in Murphy Territory of being the leagues worst captain.

Things can and do change quickly. A couple of injuries and the Tigers would fall apart rapidly. Not convinced by them at all.

They aren't like hawthorn or Geelong when they were up. These two sides oozed class and talent and when they played looked really good.

Teams that aren't that good don't win flags - those teams usually finish bottom 4. Whether they're good enough for a dynasty is a separate issue. They are a textbook example of a champion team. Not dissimilar to the early 2000's Collingwood teams. Lots of B graders, but very disciplined, very hard working, and very accountable.