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Messages - Thryleon

Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 16 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Richmond
The other thing to consider, our team is currently humming along.  Unless we need to change up the dynamic, maybe we shouldnt.  We might swap kennedy for Cerra, and then end up making Cripps shoulder more of a burden.  We are almost in a position where we can start to look about 4 weeks away rather than worry about next week.  A luxury we havent had in a VERY long time and will be the true test of how we are travelling.
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: The Climate, Environment and Energy Thread
Not sure the cost benefit analysis is right here either.  Nuclear power may be expensive to build, but once built, it only requires maintenance (and fuel).  The renewables are not a similar level of one and done by contrast.  They all degrade over time, and with their degradation their ability to produce power does too but in Nuclears case, the power generation component is only impacted when the site needs to be closed for maintenance.

I have a few issues with Nuclear.   Effectively it fails the would I want one near me test and does have problems I would like to see overcome from a waste perspective.  Solar, and turbines are less of an issue in that regard although I really dislike seeing a bunch of windmills everywhere littered across the landscape and I do get concerned about the disposal and replacement timelines.  I would prefer to get the worst case scenario out of these and how they are going to perform rather than the best.

All that being said, not really sure why we are hell bent in turning off stuff we have been using to generate power for a long time.  There seems to be this big bang to make everyone move off the dirty old power generation (early) because of the climate emergency and whilst I agree we need to do things to rectify it, there has been action taken for quite some time already to improve these things and whilst we shouldnt be complacent, I wonder how we measure our ability to put the breaks on things and question how you quantify what the last 20 to 30 years of technological advancement has achieved to right some historic wrongs and how we can quantify whether or not it has made a big enough difference.  The old tech that was way more terrible for the environment producing lots of CFC's etc, than the current appliances and stuff we use.  I sometimes wonder why we dont focus more on the cheap one time use throw away items that are filling our land fill quicker than ever before rather than the old mantra of buying something and using it for a longer period of time too.  we pollute differently but just as badly in some ways in that regard.

Robert Heatley Stand / Re: VFL 2024 Rd 13 Carlton vs Southport at Carlton
I thought Binns worked a lot harder than Motlop, and Cuners showed why we've persevered with him.  None of them really have a chance of displacing anyone from the AFL team.

A disappointing result given the AFL-listed players in our team.
Its all about luck at this point.  I'm glad all of them are starting to get going. Need a bit of depth and despite not wanting any of the current mob out odds are that an injury can happen any time so the more getting fit the better. 
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 15 2024 Pre-game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong
Yep so this time around we will break even in the ruck, but they have a new clearance beast to worry about in De Koning.  I reckon they will counter punch us again.  Lets hope our players dont become too reactive like last time and go closing down the ball carrier between the arcs leaving outnumbers in defensive fifty.  There were at least 6 to 8 goals that could have been prevented just by holding position last time.

Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 15 2024 Pre-game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong
I wouldn't mind going in roughly how we lined up last time we played Geelong.  Execution hurt us more than anything else.  We had plenty of opportunities and they played efficient footy.  Almost got them despite performing quite poorly for long periods of the day.  A little more outside run is all we need.
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 15 2024 Pre-game Prognostications Carlton vs Geelong
No doubt some will poo poo this as woke, PC nonsense, but this is the Carlton Respects game. I think it's great that the club has taken this initiative, on what is surely a scourge to all of humanity. Anything that can raise awareness and set acceptable standards and boundaries for behavior towards women can only be a good thing.
only problem i have with this game is the fact our record in it is quite poor. I think we've won maybe one of these matches since we started them. 

Has nothing to do with it of course. 
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon
Few collingwood supporters on this forum it appears, everything is black and white.

Nobody is saying statistics is the be all and end all. If it was, we'd have computers as head coaches.

However, people saying statistics don't see this, or can't see this and are of no use are equally wrong.

The truth is in the middle.

When Trigg came to the club he lost his $h!t because we didn't have any kind of analytics in place with our drafting and recruiting. That is, 100% trusting peoples 'eye' and not using statistical evidence to back it up and compare.
Clearly that was wrong.....and we have our poor recruiting/development as proof.

Since then we've come on board with the modern game and have an abundance of statistical information to back our coaches up.
We;ve had a few very good 'moneyball' recruits off the back of it - Think Elijah Hollands as an example.
Alternatively, when you look at what the old fashioned 'eye' test tells us, which got Vossy undone in Brisbane, it also hasn't worked here with Fantasia......but the personal relationships got that done more than statistical.

Coaches have favourites, they are only human.
Fans too.

Players play on emotion....coaches and MC can't afford too.

As i said earlier, ignore statistics at your own peril......we have 20+ years of dark ages as evidence.
I dont think anyone said ignore the stats, but most have said beware of putting too much stock into them.

Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon
There is something you can find on the AFL app in regards to players and running.
Lists the top 5 in a few different stats, none of which appear on your traditional stat sheet, but its tracked none-the-less.

Distance covered.
Distance covered at high speed
Speed (max)
Speed (avg)
Total Sprints
Repeat Sprints
Average speed in attack
Average speed in defense

....and there is team work rate (attack and defense) and a variety of other things.

,.....and thats just some of the stuff we know about.
you don't have to move to influence a game.  It's about filling space, making a contest or providing an exit kick and being ignored.  Some of it is completely incapable of being tracked.  Last night I watched Rowan Marshall lead Harris Andrews out of defense with a strong lead up to the ball carrier on the wing.  He didn't turn back when the first lead wasn't honoured.  He turned left and led hard to the pocket dragging Harris Andrews out of the defensive fifty with him which leaves king without the greatest fullback of the last 3 years on his clacker.  So his two sprints ignored the most important part of it.  That's the point I'm making.
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 13 2024 Post Game Celebrations - Carlton vs Essendon
I just replayed the first quarter and took note of the ruck contests.

Goldstein: 17 ruck contests, 2 hitouts, 0 HTA, 3 clearances
De Koning: 10 ruck contests, 3 hitouts, 0 HTA, 1 clean possession, 1 free kick, 2 clearances
Wright: 4 ruck contests, 1 hitout, 1 HTA*
McKay: 6 ruck contests, 3 hitouts, 0 HTA
Cripps: 3 ruck contests, 1 hitout, 1 HTA
Kennedy: 2 ruck contests, 0 hitouts

*This was probably a fortuitous HTA in that Wright attempted to take clean possession and the ball ricocheted to his teammate.

Cripps just shaded Wright as the most effective ruckman on the ground in the first quarter if you're judging by HTA. 

In the absence of HTAs, Goldstein was more effective in the ruck than De Koning in that he had three clearances to De Koning's two.  However, Goldstein's clearances were from second efforts after the ball had gone to ground.  De Koning's clearances were from a clean possession and a free kick in the ruck contest.

It's interesting that there were only 10 hitouts from 21 ruck contests

Im sure that this stats are all biased based on the midfield roving and their relative opposition.  When we played Sydney, we could have had Max Gawn rucking and the result would have been the same.
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: The EV thread
Data leads to information.
Information is power.

There may not be a purpose for it.....yet....but its better to have it and not need it, than vice versa.

Maybe, but you still need to store it.  The whole thing is economics, and all that changes is where your money ends up.  Call me a cynic but lets face it, these things are all not about your data.  If you dont want anyone to have your data, you have to go off grid.
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: The EV thread
Putting hardware in place isn't about the public, it's about using the public as the distribution method. As you should well know working in IT, the car outside your office can be listening to devices on your network, and that widget / device on the accounts payable desk might not be yours to control. Some $2 novelty gadget the Billy bought Betty for Valentines Day!

We were recently alerted to stop using circuit boards manufactured in China, these are supposed to be bare boards without components, but security groups have found serial decode chips embedded within multilayer boards. You have to X-ray these boards to find them. Tiny chips capable of parroting away your data, and they cost a few cents per thousand devices, they are inconsequential like gains of sand.

Do you really think a country that spends billions of nuclear weapons or military hardware will blink at the trivial cost of adding millions of serial decode chips to devices distributed everywhere? Billions of such tiny devices would cost less than one warhead.

As you point out it's not just about military or politics, actually it's probably more about stealing IP, because that is the high cost high value proposition.

All nations would be doing this stuff given the opportunity, the naivety is thinking they wouldn't!
the arrogance is thinking they would. No car is listening to devices on my network, your car usually isn't connected to home wifi.  It might pair with your phone but when it's off that's that. 

Your point about the micro chips is important but guess what.  When 90% of everything you own is made in PRC from Australian materials or something of that nature they don't have to work too hard to infiltrate.  They've got tik tok on most kids phones around the nation.  What's the point of hitting the car when there is still that trivial little bit of important detail that they require am exfiltration method.  The chips are useless and more data doesn't equate to more information.  It's useless.

East vs West they're all farming data for the same purpose.  They all want to sell you more crap and the apps are designed to manipulate you into buying more crap you don't need because it's cheap and available.

Why go to the effort of infiltrating households when you can simply buy the data directly from Google or Apple?

It's cheaper and easier.