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Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #45
The collective West is pretty much confirming  that this was a stray S300 missile fired as part of an air defence operation from Ukraine. Ukraine continues to blame the Russians.

Ukraine has to tread a bit of a careful path here.
They can't afford the luxury of being anything other than fully transparent.
If mistakes have been made...if accidents have happened, then acknowledge them.
The longer the war goes on the more the chance supporting countries will find it difficult to maintain support as domestic pressures come into play, and they get a bit war weary.
Dishonesty or some perceived distortion of the truth would be very damaging to the Ukraine cause.
They have to be seen to be the 'good guys'.

Russians play the 'long war'.
It's a war of attrition and a wearing down of opposition before they turn the tide.
They let the other side use up their resources and take the short term hits.
It's like a boxer absorbing the punishment before the counter attack.
It's pretty similar to the way the Ukranians played it at the start.
But at the end of the day they do have a lot of combined history despite the differences.

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #46
Ukraine has to tread a bit of a careful path here.
They can't afford the luxury of being anything other than fully transparent.
If mistakes have been made...if accidents have happened, then acknowledge them.
The longer the war goes on the more the chance supporting countries will find it difficult to maintain support as domestic pressures come into play, and they get a bit war weary.
Dishonesty or some perceived distortion of the truth would be very damaging to the Ukraine cause.
They have to be seen to be the 'good guys'.

Russians play the 'long war'.
It's a war of attrition and a wearing down of opposition before they turn the tide.
They let the other side use up their resources and take the short term hits.
It's like a boxer absorbing the punishment before the counter attack.
It's pretty similar to the way the Ukranians played it at the start.
But at the end of the day they do have a lot of combined history despite the differences.
Yep, imagine that it turns out that this rocket was fired in that direction on purpose?  Even if you were to argue that they were defending the Ukraine from a Russian strike the map doesn't lie and the direction it needed to be fired in to hit Poland makes for a potential deliberate hit at Poland and trying to paint the Russians as the culprits.

Thing is, there is enough of a grey area there that they could always state that the "west" is saying it was Ukrainian in order to not escalate the response on Russia. 

Very thin line to be walking and dangerous territory.  Imagine for a moment the Russians did this on purpose to paint the Ukrainians in a certain light as a false flag.  Wouldn't be the first time something like this happened.

Either way, NATO needs to be careful.  A stray rocket into Poland is nothing to be concerned about in the scheme of things, even if it were the Russians.  That wouldn't lead to good outcomes and only continued fighting which will only lead to more loss of life and a continuation of this conflict.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #47
Ukraine has to tread a bit of a careful path here.
They can't afford the luxury of being anything other than fully transparent.
If mistakes have been made...if accidents have happened, then acknowledge them.
The longer the war goes on the more the chance supporting countries will find it difficult to maintain support as domestic pressures come into play, and they get a bit war weary.
Dishonesty or some perceived distortion of the truth would be very damaging to the Ukraine cause.
They have to be seen to be the 'good guys'.

Russians play the 'long war'.
It's a war of attrition and a wearing down of opposition before they turn the tide.
They let the other side use up their resources and take the short term hits.
It's like a boxer absorbing the punishment before the counter attack.
It's pretty similar to the way the Ukranians played it at the start.
But at the end of the day they do have a lot of combined history despite the differences.
Always said the way out of this war is to give Putin a win in something, he wants to be a war hero like Stalin or a star keeper of the Iron curtain like Brezhnev who built up the Russian nuke capabilities , Space programs and instigated/presided over the " detente era" with the USA where Russia was seen on par in terms of world importance.
Putin is only infamous for the failed Ukraine war at this stage.....

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #48
Even if you were to argue that they were defending the Ukraine from a Russian strike the map doesn't lie and the direction it needed to be fired in to hit Poland makes for a potential deliberate hit at Poland and trying to paint the Russians as the culprits.
Firstly, I agree, it's clearly about 400km off course to be part of the expected military operations.

But secondly, you can't be sure who fired it and why, it's just not that simple and there really are far more than two options.

The problem is someone somewhere always profits heavily from war, politically or financially, so you can never assume it was one of the registered combatants.

For example, there would be arms dealers sweating on Ukraine being accepted into NATO, they would get a whole new nation as a customer overnight, a customer they currently cannot deal with above board!

There would be NATO members who do not want Ukraine in NATO, so that funding to existing members is not diminished.

Another extreme example, China or North Korea both benefit greatly from any escalation that keeps NATO and the US tied up in the Russia / Ukraine conflict. It's a version of distracting the police while you get on with a dirty deed! You can gain an advantage more than one way, not just by making yourself stronger, but also by weakening an opponent.
The Force Awakens!

Re: Russian Ukraine War

Reply #49
It just shows how poorly informed some of the general public can be, and how we can be at the mercy of governments.

I read today that Putin is making a show of strength on his local media, chest beating about Russia's dominance over the Artic region. But it's a bit odd, because he's basically touting icebreaking capabilities, when there is likely to be hardly any ice to break in coming decades! But I suppose if you are inclined to follow a tyrant then you are likely to think climate change is bogus also!

Or is the information the general public gets in Russia just that poor?

I'd find it hard to believe if not for my first hand experience of the Chinese public media which keeps China's citizens mostly in the dark.
The Force Awakens!