Where are our goals going to come from?

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Re: Where are our goals going to come from?

Reply #15 – August 30, 2023, 09:20:44 pm

Quote from: Thryleon on August 30, 2023, 06:26:27 pm

2023 - 275 goals, 272 behinds
2022 - 268 goals, 208 behinds
2021 - 250 goals, 201 behinds

You know, this is as simple as it gets when it comes to scoring and ratios.

We've had way more scoring shots than last year, converted less of them consistently.

That being said, weve had 2 heavy wins vs the Eagles, which contributed to 19 of Charlie's goals in 2 matches.

Harry's conversion ratio is way down on his average. His scoring totals normally convert 60% of his shots into goals at worst, and this season he is at about 50% and thats not including out of bounds on the full.

Instantly that explains a lot of our reliance on charlie away.

Ultimately, whatever will work works, and the rest is just details.

Let's not get too wound up with stats. We've really had only a 10 week season. Forget the previous 13 weeks where we were barely interested. That 13 weeks we relied on Charlie as no-one else could kick a goal. We spent about 4 weeks at one stage kicking no more than 6 goals a game as a team. Tell about the last 10 weeks when we were committed and on fire.

Re: Where are our goals going to come from?

Reply #16 – August 30, 2023, 09:22:05 pm

Further to the above....
2023 - 275.206 - https://afltables.com/afl/stats/2023s.html
2022 - 268.208 - https://afltables.com/afl/stats/2022s.html
2021 - 250.201 - https://afltables.com/afl/stats/2021s.html

Not sure where you get your stats from, but AFLTABLES should be where you start.

Re: Where are our goals going to come from?

Reply #17 – August 30, 2023, 09:52:04 pm

Maths says Thry is right - 275.272=1,922 points for the season as per the ladder

This is 106 more points than last season but we played one more game

Pity we didn't score a couple more points last season.

Who cares - it doesn't matter what we score as long it is more than the opposition and isn't Ross Lyon brand footy.

Re: Where are our goals going to come from?

Reply #18 – August 31, 2023, 08:12:12 am

Quote from: kruddler on August 30, 2023, 09:22:05 pm

Not sure where you get your stats from, but AFLTABLES should be where you start.

I've seen this "error" before in AFL reporting, it's the incorrect / correct use different types of averages.

For example if you look at some sites they will report we "average" 9 behinds per game, 9 x 23 = 207 behinds, yet we've scored 272 behinds. If readers start filtering kicked versus rushed and the like, it starts to make sense but the websites reporting the stats do not make that clear. So the subtotals are 207 kicked behinds + 65 rushed = 272.

Averages reported for goals are always correct for the obvious reason you can only kick a goal.

It's difficult / labour intensive to retrospectively look at the figures because historically many stat sites haven't differentiated kicked versus rushed. If we wanted to be really accurate we'd also have to find touched off the boot and hit the post as separate categories.

Finally, compared to the past the game has changed so much, all the banana kicks with check-side, leg and off-breaks, how do you compare that to history and claim one is better than the other? In the past some blokes could kick a drop kick or torp from outside 60m+ on a regular basis, now they do not exist. A drop punt or torp goal from deep in the pocket was almost non-existent, now the deep pocket set shot with the banana is almost preferred!

Re: Where are our goals going to come from?

Reply #19 – August 31, 2023, 08:53:22 am

Quote from: kruddler on August 30, 2023, 09:22:05 pm

Further to the above....
2023 - 275.206 - https://afltables.com/afl/stats/2023s.html
2022 - 268.208 - https://afltables.com/afl/stats/2022s.html
2021 - 250.201 - https://afltables.com/afl/stats/2021s.html

Not sure where you get your stats from, but AFLTABLES should be where you start.

I went to the AFL ladder

Re: Where are our goals going to come from?

Reply #20 – August 31, 2023, 08:57:42 am

Quote from: kruddler on August 30, 2023, 09:22:05 pm

Further to the above....
2023 - 275.206 - https://afltables.com/afl/stats/2023s.html
2022 - 268.208 - https://afltables.com/afl/stats/2022s.html
2021 - 250.201 - https://afltables.com/afl/stats/2021s.html

Not sure where you get your stats from, but AFLTABLES should be where you start.

Quote from: kruddler on August 30, 2023, 09:18:46 pm

I've got something that explains the difference. Human error.

https://afltables.com/afl/teams/carlton/season.html
2023 - 275.272.1922
2022 - 268.249.1857
2021 - 250.246.1746

I generally use AFL tables as a rule for historic purposes.

Thing is though, your stats contradict each other somewhat.

Re: Where are our goals going to come from?

Reply #21 – August 31, 2023, 11:06:03 am

Quote from: kruddler on August 30, 2023, 09:18:46 pm

I've got something that explains the difference. Human error.

https://afltables.com/afl/teams/carlton/season.html
2023 - 275.272.1922
2022 - 268.249.1857
2021 - 250.246.1746

I used the figures from a different page - https://afltables.com/afl/stats/2023s.html - and they're wrong. I suspect those tables don't count rushed behinds

And I copied one number incorrectly

Re: Where are our goals going to come from?

Reply #22 – August 31, 2023, 01:21:39 pm

Readers can see why you need to be very careful using stats, it's all in the definition and you cannot assume anything, you can't even assume the terms used mean the same thing to you and whoever compiled the stats.

Re: Where are our goals going to come from?

Reply #23 – August 31, 2023, 01:35:55 pm

Lot's of variables in discussing goalkicking accuracy.
.
You can kick 30 goals-30 behinds....and they will tell you it's bad kicking

And it was on that day Rnd 2 1969 against Hawthorn
Because only one of those behinds was 'rushed' according to the tables

(one dodgy, unskilled player in particular kicked 6-12)

On the other hand we kicked 9-20 against GWS in Rnd 3 this year and 8 out of the 20 behinds were rushed.

Then there's the shots that miss everything

Re: Where are our goals going to come from?

Reply #24 – August 31, 2023, 05:43:34 pm

Quote from: Thryleon on August 31, 2023, 08:57:42 am

I generally use AFL tables as a rule for historic purposes.

Thing is though, your stats contradict each other somewhat.

I didnt think i needed to spell it out, but apparantly i do.

First list was total goals and total behinds per year.
Second list was total goals and behinds kicked by us......that is, excluding rushed behinds. So can see how many rushed behinds there are.

There is no contradiction. Just misunderstanding.

Re: Where are our goals going to come from?

Reply #25 – October 25, 2023, 05:39:29 pm

I just had a quick look at our 2022 and 2023 goalkickers:

2022 - Key forwards 126, Small/medium forwards 72, Midfielders 61, Rucks 4, Defenders 5

2023 - Key forwards 124, Small/medium forwards 101, Midfielders 63, Rucks 9, Defenders 9

The figures are a bit rubbery as players change roles and I've treated Silvagni as a key forward rather than a ruck, but the increased efficiency of our small and medium forwards was significant in 2023. Crippa's output dropped from 20 to 9 but his midfield teammates more than picked up the slack.

Our gameplan and personnel are very different to Collingwood's and that is reflected in their 2023 goal kicking breakdown:

Key forwards 88, Small/medium forwards 109, Midfielders 101, Rucks 32, Defenders 4

However, it would be great if we could get more of a contribution from our rucks and midfielders.

Re: Where are our goals going to come from?

Reply #26 – October 25, 2023, 08:24:44 pm

Quote from: DJC on October 25, 2023, 05:39:29 pm

I just had a quick look at our 2022 and 2023 goalkickers:

2022 - Key forwards 126, Small/medium forwards 72, Midfielders 61, Rucks 4, Defenders 5

2023 - Key forwards 124, Small/medium forwards 101, Midfielders 63, Rucks 9, Defenders 9

The figures are a bit rubbery as players change roles and I've treated Silvagni as a key forward rather than a ruck, but the increased efficiency of our small and medium forwards was significant in 2023. Crippa's output dropped from 20 to 9 but his midfield teammates more than picked up the slack.

Our gameplan and personnel are very different to Collingwood's and that is reflected in their 2023 goal kicking breakdown:

Key forwards 88, Small/medium forwards 109, Midfielders 101, Rucks 32, Defenders 4

However, it would be great if we could get more of a contribution from our rucks and midfielders.

Interesting, thanks for that DJ

Re: Where are our goals going to come from?

Reply #27 – October 25, 2023, 09:41:44 pm

Quote from: Gointocarlton on October 25, 2023, 08:24:44 pm

Interesting, thanks for that DJ

What those figures do show is that our forwards - tall, medium and small - are the least of our worries.

Re: Where are our goals going to come from?

Reply #28 – October 25, 2023, 10:40:42 pm

I dont think we have too many worries.

The challenge for us isn't about ability anymore, it's about consistency and continuity. If we can get a decent run with injuries this season, we'll give the flag a red hot shake.

Re: Where are our goals going to come from?

Reply #29 – October 25, 2023, 11:18:01 pm

Quote from: Thryleon on October 25, 2023, 10:40:42 pm

I dont think we have too many worries.

The challenge for us isn't about ability anymore, it's about consistency and continuity. If we can get a decent run with injuries this season, we'll give the flag a red hot shake.

Yes, that’s true Thry.

A greater contribution from our mids and rucks would make life easier for our forwards though.

Adding Schultz or Papley to our list wouldn’t address a deficiency.