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Messages - kruddler

20
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 12 2024 In game Angst Carlton vs Port Adelaide in Adelaide
Its a bit of a slog, but we are certainly still in it at this point which is half the battle. 3 points up is nothing.

We can break the game open with a big 3rd quarter.
or
We could lose the game by dropping our bundle.

I think we'll fall in a hole in the last, as we had a tough game against Gold Coast and Port had the NM bye so should be fresher.
23
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 12 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Port Adelaide
Quote from: Lods on
Should we be a little concerned that some of our prime movers might be hobbled a bit by the new interpretation of the holding the ball rule?
The Umpires may be out to make a statement and hit this game pretty hard from the get go to send a message to teams playing later.

Biggest problem is that the umpires will be influenced by the home ground.
25
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 12 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Port Adelaide
Quote from: LP on
Don't jinx us!

You often post about respecting opponents, then you lightly dismiss the opposition's prime battering ram.

BigH's main advantage is his mobility and acceleration for a player his size, a ruck injury could end all that.

If I'm not mistaken, BigH is a twin, and his twin brother Ben has already had two minor PCLs.

I ran the numbers on this last week and pointed out how much you are jumping at shadows with this.
Backup ruck, in this case Harry, would attend about 4-6 centre bounces (depending on how many goals are scored) in a game. Now, generally, that is also against the backup ruck of the opposition, but lets ignore that point for 'worst case scenario' talk that you like to follow.
In those 4-6 centre bounces, tell harry not to jump. Tell harry to flat out move out of the way of anyone jumping at the ball. The chance of Harry contested and winning a hitout to advantage is about 1 in every 2-3 weeks from a centre bounce, so simply concede it. Problem solved.

The benefit to rucking Harry is the around the ground stuff. The ball ups and boundary throwins around the ground pose no risk of injury because the rucks start side by side and he can safely compete in them without an issue.

So please, forget about how injured poor Harry might get in 4-6 ruck contests that he doesn't even have to compete in.
He is more likely to get injured in the 10 pack marks he gets crunched in every week anyway, including by his own teammates!
 
26
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 11 2024 Post Game Postulations Carlton vs Gold Coast
Quote from: Lods on
Yep
I thought about the VFL.
I'd be quite happy to see it trialled there first for a season or two.
Senior coaches would get an opportunity to see it in action and work out strategies to cope with the new approach.
We'd all be able to see the benefits,  and any problems.
It would also probably give the second tier competition a bit of a boost as folks tuned in to see the new rules in action.

The downside of using it in the VFL is the overall standard is lower. The conditions and the grounds are worse.
As a result, it would be 'uglier' than it would be at AFL level.
27
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 11 2024 Post Game Postulations Carlton vs Gold Coast
Quote from: Lods on
The unknown though...is the 'unknown'.
We can visualise it, we can run our own scenarios looking at games and how things might go, but they'll come with a bit of bias either way.

Until you run a proper trial, the problems and the tactics used to nullify the rule won't be apparent.
And you can almost guarantee there will be unforseen consequences to such a change.
I think it's probably a fair guess to assume that initially it may result in more stoppages as players get pinged and both ball-players and tacklers delay and dwell on the contest and contact.

So any trial would require a bit of time before any benefits are realised and it becomes a fixed rule.
Not sure how you accomplish that.

You do it by introducing it to the VFL, or U18s comp or something. Give it a couple of seasons before you make a call on it.
Initially, there will be some confusion and adjusting.
Halfway through the season players will be used to it.
By the time finals come round, there will be some new tactics to take advantage of it.
You need the off-season to work out new tactics.
You need the next season before there is a new kind of normal with tactics and countertactics in place.

Anything shorter than that and you won't get a true indication of it.

Certainly won't get an idea from a couple of practice games which the afl attempted with its previous half-ar$ed trial.
28
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 11 2024 Post Game Postulations Carlton vs Gold Coast
Quote from: Lods on
I'm not averse to giving the removing the prior opportunity a go.
But I think we need to see it trialled before we make the change to determine how much of a difference it would make.
Just for a bit of fun I watched a quarter  a few weeks ago and tried to 'umpire' it on the basis of get the ball and if tackled release it virtually immediately in a proper manner...no prior.
Of course it may very well  have been my interpretation, but I only counted 4 occasions when it would have made a difference...when a free might have been paid.
I'm guessing it was probably a lot greater on the weekend
I wonder how much difference it would make to the game, but we won't know unless we trial it...with umpires a bit more accomplished than my good self :))

4 occasions in a quarter.
16 occassions in a match.

....and that'd be conservative numbers.

There was 131 tackles in our last match.

There was 105 ruck contests.
30 of them are from goals and starts of quarter - 75 remaining.
Lets say half of them was from throw ins (IMO a lot less, but keep it simple - 37)
Thats essentially 37 times there was a ball up as a result of a tackle that wasn't rewarded....but could be as many as 75.

37 times in a match. Removing prior opportunity would remove 37 stoppages from a game. This is conservative estimates too.

Players are taking the ball, knowing they will get tackled straight away and not attempting to dispose of it at all, instead, just waiting for the umpire to get it and throw it up.
I saw it at times on the weekend, largely as a smart tactic by our defenders to force the ballup in a dangerous position.

But....take away that tactic, they are forced to either, hit it on, and try and get a disposal out. Either way, play keeps moving instead of having a stoppage. Either way, the chance of a turnover is high. Either way, the chance of a goal resulting is a lot higher than going through a 50-50 stoppage. This is how it will increase scoring as well as speed the game up.

I've done the same exercise with mates who i've explained this too and they all seem to agree that its the way to go. Nobody has come up with any kind of downside to it either. LPs possessions/not possession is his only objection, but the same thing happens now with holding/not holding and will sort itself out pretty quickly as its basically an existing rule that isn't umpired correctly as it is.

The trial that the afl did was a half-ar$ed attempt and was designed to rig the outcome....like the old republic vote in the 90's.
It showed nothing because it only kicked into effect on the 2nd handball. So first players to the ball was just hatching it like they do now, and that was ok. If they handballed it to someone who then tried to hatch it, they were penalised......but that occurs in maybe 5% of scenarios, so it was a pointless exercise that 'solved' a problem that didn't exist.
29
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 11 2024 Post Game Postulations Carlton vs Gold Coast
Quote from: LP on
Despite an out of the box low free kick count there wasn't much obvious stuff missed, and I suspect the main complaint will be that all the subtle / borderline frees went GC's direction in the 1st half, but I didn't see any major clangers by the umpires for either side.

I was at the game, and things may have looked different on TV, but i cannot agree with this statement.

Me and 40k of my closest mates seemed to see some very obvious ones being missed.
Most of it was based on the holding the ball decisions.....that were not paid.

A lot of the frustration would be taken away, and the decision making of the umpires made easier, if we ditched the prior opportunity rule.

Right now a player takes on a tackler (which gives up his right to prior opportunity) is correctly tackled and doesn't dispose of it correctly, and the umpire doesn't pay anything because they say there was no prior opportunity. So the mistake came when judging if/when a player decided to take on the tackler.
Removing prior opportunity removes that decision making error.

There's a similar problem when the ball comes out in the tackle.
Is that supposed to be play on?
Does the player with the ball get done for incorrect disposal?
This seems to change depending on how long the player had the ball for as well......or....if he had prior opportunity. TBH, i'm not sure which way that rule is supposed to go, but thats how its umpired and thats where another grey area is introduced where it shouldn't be.

I keep banging on about it, but removing prior fixes so many of these errors.
The main issue seems to be that people don't want to penalise the player making the play.....which is a reasonable stance.
However, currently, we do not reward the tackler enough. It NEEDS to be fairer in that regard.
30
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 11 2024 Post Game Postulations Carlton vs Gold Coast
Quote from: pinot on
TDK tackles and takes marks and restricts opposition from winning quality clearances. He is Kreuzer on steroids except very durable. You can't play talents like that in other positions other than their preferred and most dynamic,

Implying that he must play #1 ruck because he does that and Pittonet doesn't?

Last week Pittonet had 20 touches and 11 clearances. That was better than TDKs best in both touches and clearances before this week....and is still better in clearances after this week......and this was after having surgery during the week as well.

For all this talk about contested marking between the 2 as well.
Pitto averages 0.83 CMs per game this year.
TDK averages 0.7 CMs per game this year.

People constantly overlook what Pitto has given us since returning fit this year.

I don't care who takes the #1 ruck role in the side, i just want it to be the best player available.....and i don't think its clear cut.