A lot of discussion pre-season centred around our goalkicking. A lot of folk were cautious in suggesting any improvement in ladder position because of our lack of forward power.
We have to do better than last year. But how much better can we do?
We may have done a goal kicking prediction pre-season but now the season is underway things are probably a bit clearer.
After 4 rounds we’re eight goals up on last season (including one match in a mud-bath not conducive to high scores). Not a bad effort. Our leading goal-kicker is a bit ahead of last year’s pace……
Carlton 2016
Goals 224 -Behinds 224-Points 1568
After 4 rounds 34.40
Leading Goal-kicker- Matthew Wright 22
Carlton 2017
After 4 rounds 42.40
Leading Goal-kickers
Wright 6
Silvagni 5
Casboult 5
Weitering 4
But after 4 rounds do people want to have a stab at where it will finish up….
How many goals will the team kick?
Who’ll be the leading goal-kicker?
How many goals will win the Carlton goal-kicking?
271.250
Leading GK Casboult (48)
Goals : 245
Leading goal kicker : Matty Wright
Goal kicking award : As above, 30 goals
Team: 280.290
Casboult: 40
Murphy: 30
Wright: 30
Silvagni: 30
C Curnow: 20
Weitering: 15 (I think he'll spend time in defence)
Team 230.250
Wright 30
Silvagni 25
Casboult 20
Goals - 258
Leading goal kickers
Casboult 42
Wright 28
SOJ 28
Pickett 22
267- 257
Casboult 38
Wright 28
Jack S. 22
264 - 264
The Bolt 35
Wright 34
Weitering 33
SOJ 28
Pickett 22
The most encouraging sign for me so far is the 2 goals per game better average than this time last year. Talk was we were going to try and be more attacking this year, and so far so good. It also helps that Cas is kicking straighter, SOJ is building on last year, and I think Pickett will kick a few bags this year, but also kick none a fair few times. I'd prefer we had half a dozen guys kicking 30 than 1 guy kicking 100.
Just backing up the point Kruddler and others have been arguing regarding our firepower (a point I've actually been arguing against)
Historically to play finals we've needed goal totals in excess of 300.
Around the 250-260 mark, where most of the predictions are occurring, you're probably looking bottom four, (maybe bottom 2)....unless your defence is very very good.
At the moment we're not even tracking to get that many, more like a 230-240 total...so time to get a wriggle on...
With that in mind, and sticking with a prediction of a 9th to 12th finish, (for the moment :D)
Goals : 280
Leading goal kicker : Silvagni
Goal kicking award : Silvagni 42 goals
It's interesting.
2017 goal averages for the top teams are generally up, but our goal average is roughly the same as 2016.
For 2017 if we average 12 per game(264) we will be lower half of the ladder. If we average 10 per game(220) we would be dead last by the end of the season.
So far we are 3rd last for goals scored, only because Collingwood and Hawthorn have had inexplicable drops and are behind us!
At this stage we are the only bottom five team from 2016 that hasn't improved in goal average!
Yet to most fans we appear to be playing better football!
@Lods, great minds think alike! ;D
@Lods, great minds think alike! ;D
18 seconds apart ;D
We are actually two goals a game up on our first four games of last year after 4 rounds.
So we have improved our goal average a bit.
That really bad weather day against Essendon probably knocked us back another 3 or 4 goals.
Currently we're a tick over 10 a game.
The interesting part will be whether we pick up that average per game as the season progresses.
If we finish up averaging around 12-13 per game we'll have improved significantly on 2016.
18 seconds apart ;D
I wish I could claim I can phone type that fast, it would be a real achievement! ;D
18 seconds apart ;D
We are actually two goals a game up on our first four games of last year after 4 rounds.
So we have improved our goal average a bit.
That really bad weather day against Essendon probably knocked us back another 3 or 4 goals.
Currently we're a tick over 10 a game.
The interesting part will be whether we pick up that average per game as the season progresses.
If we finish up averaging around 12-13 per game we'll have improved significantly on 2016.
You didn't touch any wood did you. :-[
You didn't touch any wood did you. :-[
I'm about to lock the thread ::)
Pointless exercise at the moment. >:(
(but we'll get better ;) :D)
We won in rd 5 last year but we only kicked the 10. Some junk time goals might make these stats look better but won't tell the true story.
We won in rd 5 last year but we only kicked the 10. Some junk time goals might make these stats look better but won't tell the true story.
This is when we started going on our run last year.
After round 5
2016
Goals 44 behinds 52
Percentage 67.1% (For 316 Against 471)
2017
Goals 48 Behinds 51
Percentage 67.1% (For 339 Against 505)
Goalkickers
Casboult 9
Silvagni 6
Wright 6
After round 6
2016
Goals 54 Behinds 64
Percentage 73.5 %
2017
Goals 63 Behinds 58
Percentage 74.8 %
Goalkickers
Casboult 11
Wright 10
Silvagni 6
Thanks for keeping a running tally lods. Much appreciated.
At this point, Cas tracking at just under 2 goals per game. Keep it up matey, hope to see you kick 40 by the end of the season.
Is it possible, please God, that Cas has finally turned the corner re goal kicking ?
Now we just need to work on his tackling.
When I estimated our score for the season, I made the mistake of assuming that the increase over last season would be a simple arithmetic progression. It looks like a geometric progression at this stage and >300 goals is a possibility :)
When I estimated our score for the season, I made the mistake of assuming that the increase over last season would be a simple arithmetic progression. It looks like a geometric progression at this stage and >300 goals is a possibility :)
I'd just love Casboult to kick 10 against the Dawks in Rnd 22, despite the best backline stacking wall punching umpire sledging efforts of The Angry Ant to prevent it!
I'd just love Casboult to kick 10 against the Dawks in Rnd 22, despite the best backline stacking wall punching umpire sledging efforts of The Angry Ant to prevent it!
I reckon Meat will have a breakout game this season and I'm hoping it will before round 22. However, a ten goal reprise against the Hawks would be nice :)
After round 7
2016
Goals 69 Behinds 73
Percentage 79.6 %
2017
Goals 75 Behinds 65
Percentage 80.6 %
Goalkickers (Target 2016- Wright 22)
Casboult 13
Wright 12
Weitering 6
Silvagni 6
After round 8
2016
Goals 83 Behinds 82-580 (points against 703)
Percentage 82.5 %
2017
Goals 85 Behinds 71-581 (points against 724)
Percentage 80.3 %
Goalkickers (Target 2016- Wright 22)
Casboult 13
Wright 12
Silvagni 8
Weitering 7
Where we're at Round 8
-After 8 rounds we're only one point ahead of our 2016 points total
-Despite the perception of a much improved defence we've actually had more points scored against us to this stage.
-No goals for Casboult or Wright for the weekend.
Rise of the youngsters Jack and Charlie charging towards 25 goals for this year
After round 9
2016
Goals 89 Behinds 92-626 (points against 816)
Percentage 76.7 %
2017
Goals 92 Behinds 80-632 (points against 810)
Percentage 78 %
Goalkickers (Target 2016- Wright 22)
Casboult 15
Wright 12
Silvagni 8
Weitering 7
Silvagni would be about 20 by now if he could kick straight... 3 on Sunday down the gurgler.
Sav get to work.
If this list ticks over any slower it'll be going backwards!
If this list ticks over any slower it'll be going backwards!
Exactly my reaction too, Spotted One. This is not really keeping pace with the natural progression that you'd reasonably expect. At this rate our desire to recruit a marquis player will not be realised as no-one will want to come to the good ship CFC... when others around us are progressing faster, offering finals footy sooner and are also cashed up.
On a positive note, when I watched last Sunday's game again the overwhelming sense was that we're not far off.... but... we still lack a ruthless streak and there will be no evidence of that until we actually belt a side, win by 50 pts plus. These boys need a big win.
The thing I'm finding difficult to understand is the "impression" or "reality" that we have abandoned the forward line.
There appears (to me) to be no attempt at all to shake it up.
It's basically the same week after week....and showing no sign of progressing.
None of the forwards from the VFL are getting a run.
None of the guys playing back are being given an opportunity up forward.
Why not swap Weitering for Marchbank in the forward line for a game.
Give Plowman, Macreadie, Williamson...even Alex Silvagni (to shake it up)a run up forward.
The media seem to look at our goal tally and then state with great confidence that it is because we have a bad forward line. This is a little too simplistic for me.
The biggest contributing factors to our goal tally are:
A - our midfield
B - Bolton's game plan
We are out-gunned in the midfield by pretty much every club in the comp (outside the core 4).
E.g. line the Saints up against our second tier: Samo / Fisher / Wright / Kerridge / Daisy / Cunningham/ Smedts VS. Koby Stevens / Mav Weller / Montagna / Gresham / Savage / Ross / Steele / Acres / Dunstan.... the list goes on. Outside our top 4 our mids drop away quicker than any other team in the comp.
That's why Bolton doesn't like to handball and move the ball quickly because we can't pull it off just yet and we'll get burnt on the turnover. He dabbled with in the JLT and we clearly weren't up to it and regularly got torn apart.
I agree though... Kreuze / SOS / etc. missing sitters doesn't help!
Good post Jeza and very largely agree!
No Graham.
We are two emerging/established good to very good mids short, no question.
Even if SPS and Cuningham make the grade....
I'd like to see Pickett played as a mid in the 2s - that is what e always was, first and foremost but i guess he needs to get his fitness to a minimum level...
I think the focus will turn to the mid field starting with this year's drafting and trading.
The thing I'm finding difficult to understand is the "impression" or "reality" that we have abandoned the forward line.
There appears (to me) to be no attempt at all to shake it up.
It's basically the same week after week....and showing no sign of progressing.
None of the forwards from the VFL are getting a run.
None of the guys playing back are being given an opportunity up forward.
Why not swap Weitering for Marchbank in the forward line for a game.
Give Plowman, Macreadie, Williamson...even Alex Silvagni (to shake it up)a run up forward.
Welcome to 6 months ago!
Said it time and time again. We had the worst forward line in the comp last year and did NOTHING to improve it in the off-season.
Why people expected anything different is beyond me.
I still can't believe how good our run with injuries has been this year. If i was told we were going to be basically injury free, i would've expected much more going on the scoreboard up to this point.
Possible reasons :
1. Our recruiters stuffed up
2. Tanking
3. No decent KPF or small forwards available, once we used our various draft picks to fulfill other priorities
4. Belief that the young ones waiting in the wings will come good.
EDIT :
5. A belief (ahem) that our current senior forwards were sufficient.
Possible reasons :
1. Our recruiters stuffed up
2. Tanking
3. No decent KPF or small forwards available, once we used our various draft picks to fulfill other priorities
4. Belief that the young ones waiting in the wings will come good.
EDIT :
5. A belief (ahem) that our current senior forwards were sufficient.
IMO, only 3 is acceptable...and even then you could take a chance on someone with a rookie spot.
Welcome to 6 months ago!
Said it time and time again. We had the worst forward line in the comp last year and did NOTHING to improve it in the off-season.
Why people expected anything different is beyond me.
I still can't believe how good our run with injuries has been this year. If i was told we were going to be basically injury free, i would've expected much more going on the scoreboard up to this point.
There's a subtle difference in our observations.
My point is that we don't seem to be doing anything with the list we have to address those forward problems.
There are numerous options we could try but we send out the same structure week after week.
Again... it is too simplistic to blame the forward line. Our midfield is undermanned and incapable of breaking through the flood / press. Our forwards are never one on one.
Again... it is too simplistic to blame the forward line. Our midfield is undermanned and incapable of breaking through the flood / press. Our forwards are never one on one.
But surely there have been games and quarters this year when we've been well on top of the opposition yet the forward set-up has still failed to produce.
Again... it is too simplistic to blame the forward line. Our midfield is undermanned and incapable of breaking through the flood / press. Our forwards are never one on one.
I agree, at least partially. Get the ball in quickly enough and the forwards do have more one on one opportunities. We still lack depth in our midfield.
Alot of our forward line though is young, or in Levi's case, plays two roles, where he actually performs best so still has to focus on both roles, so not alot of experience there. From what i've seen we have two potentially very good young key forwards in McKay and Kerr, that may well hold up our forward line for years, but they need to develop. I'd soon play another one, either McKay, Kerr, or even Jaksch, to partner up with Weitering, and let Levi focus on the 2nd ruck role. Might slow things a touch run-wise, but I'd prefer we get games into the young key forwards to help their development along.
Which is kind of the point I'm trying to make.
Yes, the midfield needs work.... that's a separate consideration.
I'm not even overly concerned if changes we make to the forward line doesn't produce short term results.
But for heavens sake try something different.
There's a subtle difference in our observations.
My point is that we don't seem to be doing anything with the list we have to address those forward problems.
There are numerous options we could try but we send out the same structure week after week.
Well yes and no.
We don't seem to be doing anything with it...because there is little that can be done without hurting our long term plan.
We are already using Weitering as a permanent forward despite Bolton saying he would only spend brief periods there.
A stable back 6 is highest priority. That is working.
Beyond that..... :-[
Well yes and no.
We don't seem to be doing anything with it...because there is little that can be done without hurting our long term plan.
We are already using Weitering as a permanent forward despite Bolton saying he would only spend brief periods there.
A stable back 6 is highest priority. That is working.
Beyond that..... :-[
If a stable back 6 is our priority then Weitering needs to be down back as well.
Long term Rowe and Silvagni wont be around so we're really not putting our future backline out there.
All I'm asking is a bit of variation and experimentation in the forward line.
We're not efficient now so we really have nothing to lose.
To just throw our hands up and say we're not doing anything because we have no options is pretty defeatist.
At least give players like McKay and Kerr a taste....even if it's only a game or two
If a stable back 6 is our priority then Weitering needs to be down back as well.
Long term Rowe and Silvagni wont be around so we're really not putting our future backline out there.
All I'm asking is a bit of variation and experimentation in the forward line.
We're not efficient now so we really have nothing to lose.
To just throw our hands up and say we're not doing anything because we have no options is pretty defeatist.
At least give players like McKay and Kerr a taste....even if it's only a game or two
Not sure Weitering will be down back long term. If we have Marchbank, Plowman, Macreadie, Williamson and Docherty there, thats 5. Rowe can play there for another 3-4 years and in the meantime we will draft someone else.
Up forward, Weitering, McKay and Curnow.....Jack and Ben...are our options, none of them certain, especially since Ben isn't on the list yet and McKay hasn't played a game.
Look, i agree we should bring someone in. I agree we should be trying things. But, we have limited options with the direction we are taking.
Going back to jeza'a point, if we (hypothetically) dispensed with our forward line, and brought in the Crows forward line (Jenkins Walker Betts), and kept everything else the same, what would happen ?
Would they sit in the F50 like spare pr!cks at a Jewish wedding, waiting for half decent delivery (or any kind of delivery), and not look nearly as potent as they do now ?
Would we see an ability to kick higher scores ?
Do our mids subconsciously feel the substandard nature of our forward line (and behave accordingly), and once this change occurs, would they work harder for more and better F50 delivery, because they see a better return for their efforts ?
Is there something in the Crows style and advanced stage of development, that gives them the ability to score 135 points a game ? is it ball speed, is it leg speed, is it cohesion, is it the cattle, is it the coaching ?
If Bolton took over the Crows, would they still be where they are now, playing the way they play ?
Lost of questions that I'm just throwing out there folks.
@ Paul
As you say, lots of questions lots of hypotheticals. I reckon BB is coaching based on the list he has and the low base it came from. Clearly he has stiffened up that back 6 and asked the team to play the team defence game with alot more focus and discipline. If that personnel was different, ie with our fwd line replaced with the Adelaide fwd tomorrow, he would coach slightly differently I would have thought. Would we win more games? I think we would. Would we make the 8? I think we most likely would. Would we win the flag? Probably not but we would get to where we want to be alot quicker.
@ Paul
As you say, lots of questions lots of hypotheticals. I reckon BB is coaching based on the list he has and the low base it came from. Clearly he has stiffened up that back 6 and asked the team to play the team defence game with alot more focus and discipline. If that personnel was different, ie with our fwd line replaced with the Adelaide fwd tomorrow, he would coach slightly differently I would have thought. Would we win more games? I think we would. Would we make the 8? I think we most likely would. Would we win the flag? Probably not but we would get to where we want to be alot quicker.
Fair points GTC. All of us know the forward line is our weakest link, and I was just trying to think about the problem a little differently.
Just having a look through the ladders since 2000, pretty much all top 4 teams, and certainly all premiers, finish the season with a % over 100 (in some cases well over) and scoring 100+ points for (once again, in some cases, well over). The real exceptions are the Doggies last season (2016 was bizarro world on many fronts), and the Swans and Saints teams coached by Lyon/Roos, which we all know were very defense orientated, stoppage orientated teams.
Clearly, we need to be scoring 100+ to be top 4, and that needs to happen through greater accuracy, greater efficiency, better and more frequent F50 entry, better cattle, the right structure etc.
It's no coincidence that our best performances in the last 15 years have been with a decent forward structure / setup and decent players - Waite, Walks, and the amigos (2 or 3 depending on circumstance).
Fair points GTC. All of us know the forward line is our weakest link, and I was just trying to think about the problem a little differently.
Just having a look through the ladders since 2000, pretty much all top 4 teams, and certainly all premiers, finish the season with a % over 100 (in some cases well over) and scoring 100+ points for (once again, in some cases, well over). The real exceptions are the Doggies last season (2016 was bizarro world on many fronts), and the Swans and Saints teams coached by Lyon/Roos, which we all know were very defense orientated, stoppage orientated teams.
Clearly, we need to be scoring 100+ to be top 4, and that needs to happen through greater accuracy, greater efficiency, better and more frequent F50 entry, better cattle, the right structure etc.
It's no coincidence that our best performances in the last 15 years have been with a decent forward structure / setup and decent players - Waite, Walks, and the amigos (2 or 3 depending on circumstance).
understand all that and agree. Dont quote me on the numbers but the formula or statistic for winning the flag is something like scoring 102 pts and keeping your opponent to 84 pts. Something like that.
Disagree with much of that. Our midfield is a far bigger problem than the forward line...
Fix the midfield, the forward lines all but fixes itself...we're two to three quality mids short.
And Kreuzer, for all his good form, really struggles against the new swathe of rucks considerably taller than him .
put the Crows front 6 in with the way we moved the ball last Sunday after quarter time, we'd score much the same....f... all.
Disagree with much of that. Our midfield is a far bigger problem than the forward line...
Fix the midfield, the forward lines all but fixes itself...we're two to three quality mids short.
And Kreuzer, for all his good form, really struggles against the new swathe of rucks considerably taller than him .
put the Crows front 6 in with the way we moved the ball last Sunday after quarter time, we'd score much the same....f... all.
He would be currently sitting in the top 5 in our B&F so far.
Sure he is not as tall as some of the giants BUT what he gives around the ball that many just don't see is where he value is. Would be nice to have a taller ruckman but then they wont be able to block, smoother, tackle, harass and be that big extra mid around the contest that big Kruezer is.
Until our midfield group changes drastically he is a very important player. Just look at our winning record without him in the side to realise his value to us.
So basically what folk are saying is that it wouldn't matter who was up front the result would be the same because of our weak mid-field.
In effect our forward line is irrelevant.
So then why not use it to....
-stack it with players we're looking to delist (one last chance so to speak)
or
-get senior ground time into McKay and Kerr
or
-send Jack Silvagni and Curnow to the Northern Blues for the rest of the year and let the youngsters work out an understanding together.
I still have a hope that towards the end of the year the scoring power will improve significantly on last years totals both for team and individuals...but I doubt it will be until after the bye.
Round 10 last year we kicked 16 goals.
We're likely to slip behind our 2016 total this week.
Sending the same group out week after week just seems a pointless exercise
He would be currently sitting in the top 5 in our B&F so far.
Sure he is not as tall as some of the giants BUT what he gives around the ball that many just don't see is where he value is. Would be nice to have a taller ruckman but then they wont be able to block, smoother, tackle, harass and be that big extra mid around the contest that big Kruezer is.
Until our midfield group changes drastically he is a very important player. Just look at our winning record without him in the side to realise his value to us.
I don't always agree with David King's views but I was interested to hear him state that Kreuzer is the best ruckman in the competition this season. Of course, that's not based solely on hitouts but King emphasised his work around the ground, marking and the assistance that he provides to our midfielders.
IMO, only 3 is acceptable...and even then you could take a chance on someone with a rookie spot.
Pretty much agree.
I don't always agree with David King's views but I was interested to hear him state that Kreuzer is the best ruckman in the competition this season. Of course, that's not based solely on hitouts but King emphasised his work around the ground, marking and the assistance that he provides to our midfielders.
The old Ruck-Rover ;)
I don't always agree with David King's views but I was interested to hear him state that Kreuzer is the best ruckman in the competition this season. Of course, that's not based solely on hitouts but King emphasised his work around the ground, marking and the assistance that he provides to our midfielders.
I rate what a ruckman does around the ground way more than how many taps outs they get. Often sides dominate hit outs but lose the clearances. Unless you can palm a ball out like John Nicholls or Polly Farmer the hitout stats are overrated. Kreuzer is a way better player this year because of his overall output around the ground, which I put down to him being the lone genuine ruckman. That's more important to me. Never any good when he shares. While playing the dual role maybe taking a little toll on Levi he is still a better player for it too both around the ground and on the scoreboard. Last year, Phillips. Kreuzer struggled bad around the ground, while Levi struggled to be the lone key forward. Like we were playing with 15 players. This year is alot different.
We're just treading water until this 195cm tall forward arrives:
(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcT_7zKs9-RD6N72SW494Zee5-Z8AoVlKXm-pgTDBTkq3TRtWaLEpkBEQndAzw)
No doubt taller than that by now Mav?
Let's hope so.
Disagree with much of that. Our midfield is a far bigger problem than the forward line...
Fix the midfield, the forward lines all but fixes itself...we're two to three quality mids short.
And Kreuzer, for all his good form, really struggles against the new swathe of rucks considerably taller than him .
put the Crows front 6 in with the way we moved the ball last Sunday after quarter time, we'd score much the same....f... all.
We have a former AFLCA MVP winner in Murphy. He goes ok.
Gibbs, for all the flack he gets, is still an a-grade mid, not A+, but A.
Cripps is breaking all the records for clearances and contested possessions for games played and if he isn't there now, will certainly be an elite mid soon enough.
Kreuzer would be amongst the top 6 in terms of ruck output this season.
There is your starting midfield. Not too much to complain about there.
From there it does drop away, E. Curnow, Graham...etc
However, our forwardline....
Is anyone there considered elite? No.
Is anyone there considered a-grade? No.
Is anyone there considered b-grade? Questionable. Plenty of potential...but nothing guaranteed.
....before anyone says Weitering, he is a gun player, but is not a gun forward by any stretch of the imagination.
In short, our forwardline needs more attention than the midfield.
Going back to jeza'a point, if we (hypothetically) dispensed with our forward line, and brought in the Crows forward line (Jenkins Walker Betts), and kept everything else the same, what would happen ?
Would they sit in the F50 like spare pr!cks at a Jewish wedding, waiting for half decent delivery (or any kind of delivery), and not look nearly as potent as they do now ?
Would we see an ability to kick higher scores ?
Do our mids subconsciously feel the substandard nature of our forward line (and behave accordingly), and once this change occurs, would they work harder for more and better F50 delivery, because they see a better return for their efforts ?
Is there something in the Crows style and advanced stage of development, that gives them the ability to score 135 points a game ? is it ball speed, is it leg speed, is it cohesion, is it the cattle, is it the coaching ?
If Bolton took over the Crows, would they still be where they are now, playing the way they play ?
Lost of questions that I'm just throwing out there folks.
Bolded the answers.
Bolton, and the players, play the way they play based on the cattle we have. That is, we won't kick too many winning scores with the forward line we have, so its best we hold possession and starve the opposition of chances to score.
When the opposition is double your score your chances of a comeback if the score is 4 goals to 8 is a lot more likely than if the score is 7 goals to 14.
We have a former AFLCA MVP winner in Murphy. He goes ok.
Gibbs, for all the flack he gets, is still an a-grade mid, not A+, but A.
Cripps is breaking all the records for clearances and contested possessions for games played and if he isn't there now, will certainly be an elite mid soon enough.
Kreuzer would be amongst the top 6 in terms of ruck output this season.
There is your starting midfield. Not too much to complain about there.
From there it does drop away, E. Curnow, Graham...etc
However, our forwardline....
Is anyone there considered elite? No.
Is anyone there considered a-grade? No.
Is anyone there considered b-grade? Questionable. Plenty of potential...but nothing guaranteed.
....before anyone says Weitering, he is a gun player, but is not a gun forward by any stretch of the imagination.
In short, our forwardline needs more attention than the midfield.
in your opinion. And your logic in rating individual players simply doesn't stack up - sorry.
And, if I may remind you, when we get belted, our midfield is non existent.
If you can't see the problem is more the speed and manner of delivery into F50, rather than recipients of said delivery, well not much more to say really.
Neither Betts nor Jenkins nor Walker would boost our scoring when the ball was jerked around laterally and backwards as it was for 3 quarters like it was against the Shockers....
But dream on by all means...
in your opinion. And your logic in rating individual players simply doesn't stack up - sorry.
And, if I may remind you, when we get belted, our midfield is non existent.
If you can't see the problem is more the speed and manner of delivery into F50, rather than recipients of said delivery, well not much more to say really.
Neither Betts nor Jenkins nor Walker would boost our scoring when the ball was jerked around laterally and backwards as it was for 3 quarters like it was against the Shockers....
But dream on by all means...
Firstly, weren't you the one who said we'd be playing finals this year and told me how good our forwardline was in the preseason? Told me 'I was dreaming' for not being able to see how much we'd improve and that i had lost touch with reality if i thought we'd struggle to kick goals like we did last season. *checks the 'goaltracker' thread* Oops. :-[
Secondly...
So i'm overrating our midfield? Cripps, Murphy and Gibbs are not 'A-grade -> Elite' mids?
So Adelaides midfield is superior to ours, which allows Betts, Jenkins and Walker to dominate yeah?
So remind me why Adelaide was chasing Gibbs to IMPROVE their midfield?!
Here, you might need this....
(https://cdn.shopify.com/s/files/1/0236/7341/products/AfterBurn_Geol_1024x1024_d33092ce-4e83-430f-b82c-17fa43062d05_large.jpg?v=1463864180)
feel free to dig out my quotes re making the 8.
Adelaide's midfield is very much better than ours (as a cohesive unit and including their ruck) AND they move the ball a lot, lot faster.
On Kreuzer, great as a ruck rover undoubtedly, so so as a game changing ruckman who feeds the mids...and gets the ball to their advantage in a blink...
Fast, effective ball movement into F50 is the only way we will ever win a game, likewise most all other teams.
IF BB is telling the troops to play in that (slow, lateral, keeping off) style he's no better than many other B grade coaches....and i don't know whether that is his instruction or not. But i will ask and get the answer from those who know. Not that I'd share such information with you.
If we maintain that style of play of course we'll struggle to kicking winning scores, even if da King, Dunstall, Lockett and the Krakouer brothers were standing our forward line....
And if you can't see how much we've improved when we play the right style of footy, well again, not my place...
You're clearly no analyst. With risk, comes reward....a clear, direct and strongly positive correlation. It's a simple proposition. Really.
Don't be a B grader Kruddler...
feel free to dig out my quotes re making the 8.
That one good enough for you?
If the Doggies can win a flag with their list we can make the 8 with our list. Why?
Defence - will be better again than 2016, considerably with our midfield able to contribute more defensively.
Will we miss Tuohy? Not for a second. Hopefully Macreadie gets a crack in the seniors if form warrants.
Midfield. Better? Yes.
Murphy in and fit. He must be champing!
SPS to play Rd 1 and add some real zing. Crippa will appreciate the break....
The mids need to ramp up the intensity on a consistent basis - easy really....
A forward line with C. Curnow, McKay, SOS, Palmer (+ Wright and another small forward) and Levi can be very competitive and offer up some intriguing problems for opposition defences.....
Sure, we'll need a dose of luck and for some of the junior players to really step up but the Doggies did it with a largely bunch of no names....with a few notable exceptions granted.
Stringer 42 goals, Dickson 40, then Bont with 26 - hardly earth shattering goal kicking efforts!
Plenty of our blokes are playing for their AFL careers - a pretty decent motivator!
10 - 13 wins.
Not my fault you can't remember what you said.
If you are going to continually attack me with personal insults, at least get your own house in order first.
IF BB is telling the troops to play in that (slow, lateral, keeping off) style he's no better than many other B grade coaches....and i don't know whether that is his instruction or not. But i will ask and get the answer from those who know. Not that I'd share such information with you.
Can you share it with the rest of us ? I'd like to know :D
After round 10
2016
Goals 105 Behinds 100-730 (points against 901)
Percentage 81 %
2017(Target 224-224-1568)
Goals 107 Behinds 86-728 (points against 923)
Percentage 78.9 %
Goalkickers (Target 2016- Wright 22)
Casboult 17
Wright 13
Silvagni 8
Gibbs 8
On a positive note…we are more accurate this year. :D
I was pretty sure we were going to slip behind our 2016 goal total after Round 10.
In 2016 we scored 16 goals in Round 10 and I thought that might be hard to match but a reasonable effort saw us with 15 on the weekend to just keep our noses in front of last year’s total…but not by much.
On the individual front Casboult is closing in on Wright’s 2016 total. ;D
Speaking of goals... I was astonished that the club didn't give our goal of the day to Crippa or Gibbs. Yes, Cuningham's was a ripper but Crippa had to fend off Zeibell and kick from further out... and Gibbs' kick around his body to kick a goal was phenomenal. I though Crippa's goal should have got the nod... bought the house down when it sailed through.
Docherty's was the one for me. The overlap run and drilled it from outside fifty to either put us in front, or bring us within a kick.
Docherty's was the one for me. The overlap run and drilled it from outside fifty to either put us in front, or bring us within a kick.
Absolutely could have been our goal of the day... maybe the club gave it to Cuningham to pump up his tyres; give him confidence, good goal but no pressure and only 35 metres out? Crippa's, Gibbsey's and Doc's were all under pressure.
Absolutely could have been our goal of the day... maybe the club gave it to Cuningham to pump up his tyres; give him confidence, good goal but no pressure and only 35 metres out? Crippa's, Gibbsey's and Doc's were all under pressure.
The one thing that I would say about Cunninghams goal.
He took posession in the centre square, and handballed forward to either of Cripps or Gibbs, and then followed up by running hard into forward fifty to then finish from 35.
That might have got him over the line. If you watch the footage, and keep your eyes peeled you will see him start and finish that forward thrust.
I still liked Docherty's better, but maybe its reward for effort... No harm in that at all!
The one thing that I would say about Cunninghams goal.
He took posession in the centre square, and handballed forward to either of Cripps or Gibbs, and then followed up by running hard into forward fifty to then finish from 35.
That might have got him over the line. If you watch the footage, and keep your eyes peeled you will see him start and finish that forward thrust.
I still liked Docherty's better, but maybe its reward for effort... No harm in that at all!
Yes, I did notice that and it's exactly what Cuningham needs to focus on... stay focussed and stay in the contest... when he gets the aggott he's very good with decision and disposal, even elite with decision and disposal. Reckon you're probably right.
After round 10
2016
Goals 105 Behinds 100-730 (points against 901)
Percentage 81 %
2017(Target 224-224-1568)
Goals 107 Behinds 86-728 (points against 923)
Percentage 78.9 %
Goalkickers (Target 2016- Wright 22)
Casboult 17
Wright 13
Silvagni 8
Gibbs 8
On a positive note…we are more accurate this year. :D
I was pretty sure we were going to slip behind our 2016 goal total after Round 10.
In 2016 we scored 16 goals in Round 10 and I thought that might be hard to match but a reasonable effort saw us with 15 on the weekend to just keep our noses in front of last year’s total…but not by much.
On the individual front Casboult is closing in on Wright’s 2016 total. ;D
That's a great analysis. IMO it is still very concerning [and scary] that we have made ZERO improvement to our scoring and goal kickers over the past 12 months.
I have banged on about this a bit, but I feel that many are missing the simple fact that we have made no progress in scoring power over the past 2.5 years. We are dead last in points for this year - we are simply never going to win games of football consistently and climb the ladder until we can improve our scoring by around 30% - 40% from where it has been stuck for a very long time.
Like a lot of others I see potential in some of the young players, but history also shows forwards, especially tall forwards, will take 3 years before they make a consistent impact and can kick 40-50+in a season. If we get Kerr and Harry into the team now, we are a still a long way away from having a top 8 scoring capability.
We can improve the defence relatively quickly [and we have with Doc, Marchbank, Plowman and Williamson], and the midfield is where we already have our 4 best players. Of course we need more quality midfield depth, but our forward line today is effectively a rabble still, led by a 27yo who will average 2 goals a game at best. All of the youngsters we have rolled through there so far this year have shown cameo's at best.
I think we need to start playing Kerr and McKay as a priority, and give KJ one last roll of the dice for a few games to see if he can show something. In the off season we need to recruit an established goal kicker and an experienced mid sized midfielder / forward to build our future forward line around - just like how we have built our backline around the experience of Simmo and Rowe [and now ACOS]. Remember our last successful drafting a KPF was Josh Kennedy in 2005!!
If we don't change something significant then we are doomed to keep getting the same scoring results as we have for the last 3.5 years. The idea that it will just 'naturally improve' has clearly been shown for a long time now to be a fallacy.
Rant over.......
Our highest scoring seasons since 2008 have been 2009 (2270 points for) and 2011 (2225 point for). During this time the forward line mainstays were generally Waite, Walks and a couple of the 3 aimgos. It's the best forward line we've had for ages, but I wonder whether coaching mindset plays a significant part as well ?
That's a great analysis. IMO it is still very concerning [and scary] that we have made ZERO improvement to our scoring and goal kickers over the past 12 months.
I have banged on about this a bit, but I feel that many are missing the simple fact that we have made no progress in scoring power over the past 2.5 years. We are dead last in points for this year - we are simply never going to win games of football consistently and climb the ladder until we can improve our scoring by around 30% - 40% from where it has been stuck for a very long time.
Like a lot of others I see potential in some of the young players, but history also shows forwards, especially tall forwards, will take 3 years before they make a consistent impact and can kick 40-50+in a season. If we get Kerr and Harry into the team now, we are a still a long way away from having a top 8 scoring capability.
We can improve the defence relatively quickly [and we have with Doc, Marchbank, Plowman and Williamson], and the midfield is where we already have our 4 best players. Of course we need more quality midfield depth, but our forward line today is effectively a rabble still, led by a 27yo who will average 2 goals a game at best. All of the youngsters we have rolled through there so far this year have shown cameo's at best.
I think we need to start playing Kerr and McKay as a priority, and give KJ one last roll of the dice for a few games to see if he can show something. In the off season we need to recruit an established goal kicker and an experienced mid sized midfielder / forward to build our future forward line around - just like how we have built our backline around the experience of Simmo and Rowe [and now ACOS]. Remember our last successful drafting a KPF was Josh Kennedy in 2005!!
If we don't change something significant then we are doomed to keep getting the same scoring results as we have for the last 3.5 years. The idea that it will just 'naturally improve' has clearly been shown for a long time now to be a fallacy.
Rant over.......
We need to be wary of how we view these things.
Statitistically we may score less or even with where we were, but is that consistent across the entire competition??
We may have improved to be where we are now relative to the rest of the competition and likewise their numbers might be different. We dont know that answer at this stage as its a bit early to do anything but project where we will finish and each season will have its own nuances with some teams blowing out in some circumstances and not others.
What I estimate will be a factor, is that scores for and against on average will be lower in 2017 across the entire competition which means that if we are scoring at a similar rate to last season, then we have improved.
I think any attempt to look at totals ignores what the competition is doing, and any rule changes implemented can sometimes make big differences to teams ability to score such as rotation, sub rule, etc.
Adelaide are flag favourites.... what are they doing ??? answer is.... kicking Goaaaaaaaaalllsss
The rules are trying to make the game faster, more high scoring and more of an offensive spectacle.
The Crows and GWS are showing the way - more mobility, more flexibility, more fitness / running ability, greater speed of leg and greater speed of ball movement
We need to be wary of how we view these things.
Statitistically we may score less or even with where we were, but is that consistent across the entire competition??
We may have improved to be where we are now relative to the rest of the competition and likewise their numbers might be different. We dont know that answer at this stage as its a bit early to do anything but project where we will finish and each season will have its own nuances with some teams blowing out in some circumstances and not others.
What I estimate will be a factor, is that scores for and against on average will be lower in 2017 across the entire competition which means that if we are scoring at a similar rate to last season, then we have improved.
I think any attempt to look at totals ignores what the competition is doing, and any rule changes implemented can sometimes make big differences to teams ability to score such as rotation, sub rule, etc.
I'm not quite sure I totally get the logic, given the hypotheses about scoring rates going down isn't correct - scoring rates overall hasn't changed much for the top teams [it generally doesn't move more than a goal year to year], except that Adelaide are scoring 20% more than the highest team this time last year! They score 50 points more than us per game.
We were third last in scoring last year [behind Essendon and Dockers], but both those teams have improved by 5 and 3 goals per game vs last year. We are exactly the same, and are therefore last this year - so by being the same as last year we are relatively worse compared to the comp.
All historical analysis will tell you that a side needs to be scoring around 13 goals minimum per game [around 90 pts] to make the 8. That's a 'par score', and has been for some time. As mentioned the rules are all focused on increasing scoring rates. We haven't scored anything like this since 2013 [when we finished 9th].
The simple fact is that if you don't average over 90 pts you will lose more than you win. We have scored 70 points on average for the last 75 games and won 21 - roughly 1 in 4. This ratio and our ladder position won't change until find [recruit, trade, develop] more consistent quality goal kickers than what we have right now.
The greatest knock on our recruiters has been our total failure to find A grade KPF's or other goal kickers - we have successfully recruited 2 in 20 years [Fev and JK] and 2 mid size / small forwards [Waite & Betts] in the same period. We got rid of all 4 of them and have never looked like finding even half decent replacements for any of them!
The rules are trying to make the game faster, more high scoring and more of an offensive spectacle.
The Crows and GWS are showing the way - more mobility, more flexibility, more fitness / running ability, greater speed of leg and greater speed of ball movement
Agree, but that doesn't necessarily correlate to more scoring for whatever reason just less stoppages and more end to end action where the last kick entering fifty is a turnover.
Sound familiar??
;) ;)
What sets GWS and Adelaide apart is not necessarily their ability to score easily but the rate in which they score efficiently!
@sydneybluesfan
You cant make that assertion based on scores per week. Its a biased result. We had played different teams to now, and those teams are scoring differently than they did last season. North Smashed us last year, and did it easily. This time it turned into an arm wrestle and we almost got the chocolates.
The purpose of the thread was really no more than to track the progress to beat the 224 team total goals and Wright's individual total of 22 last year.
But to consider that after 10 rounds of football there is only 2 points between our 2016 and 2017 totals is pretty fascinating.
The perception that our defence is vastly improved yet we've had more points kicked against us this year is also a strange result.
Yep... different opposition, different weather conditions, a difference in play across the league, a whole heap of factors impact... so drawing conclusions musty be taken with a bit of care.
I still find the results after 10 rounds interesting.
Agree, but that doesn't necessarily correlate to more scoring for whatever reason just less stoppages and more end to end action where the last kick entering fifty is a turnover.
Sound familiar??
;) ;)
What sets GWS and Adelaide apart is not necessarily their ability to score easily but the rate in which they score efficiently!
......................................
Some teams simply have more scoring ability than others - whether this is because of the forwards, better mids, better or more attack-orientated coaching etc., I'm not sure. In 1995, we scored 2357 points for, so even though the rules have an influence, I think the quality of your cattle and the coach's ideas about footy are of greater influence.
The point sbf makes is fair enough - the percentage and points for of top 4 teams is pretty consistent over many, many years. As I previously highlighted, last season was an exception, and other exceptions were the Ross Lyon / Paul Roos Saints and Swans teams, also as previously discussed. Generally speaking, top 4 teams average about 100-110 points for, with percentage of between 110-120
For whatever reason, we have been stuck in traffic for the last few seasons.
EDIT : the Malthouse 2010 Pies team also scored 2349 points for, so even Mr Defence himself likes an offensive spectacle.
The purpose of the thread was really no more than to track the progress to beat the 224 team total goals and Wright's individual total of 22 last year.
But to consider that after 10 rounds of football there is only 2 points between our 2016 and 2017 totals is pretty fascinating.
The perception that our defence is vastly improved yet we've had more points kicked against us this year is also a strange result.
Yep... different opposition, different weather conditions, a difference in play across the league, a whole heap of factors impact... so drawing conclusions musty be taken with a bit of care.
I still find the results after 10 rounds interesting.
I agree. It puts into perspective how we're travelling.
I still think the pressure on the midfield and our ability to cut through the opposition midfield pressure is more important than who we have standing at either end.
But to consider that after 10 rounds of football there is only 2 points between our 2016 and 2017 totals is pretty fascinating.
...
I still find the results after 10 rounds interesting.
Fascinating and interesting?
Not much going on in Dapto Lods??
To me it makes perfect sense. It's what we had last year, so we'll do similar.
I actually think we should be further ahead due simply to a comparitive lack of injuries with respect to last year.
Fascinating and interesting?
Not much going on in Dapto Lods??
To me it makes perfect sense. It's what we had last year, so we'll do similar.
I actually think we should be further ahead due simply to a comparitive lack of injuries with respect to last year.
2 points difference in one game is close
2 points difference in 10 rounds is....
(https://m.popkey.co/19a1cc/JajO7_f-thumbnail-100-0.jpg)
The purpose of the thread was really no more than to track the progress to beat the 224 team total goals and Wright's individual total of 22 last year.
But to consider that after 10 rounds of football there is only 2 points between our 2016 and 2017 totals is pretty fascinating.
The perception that our defence is vastly improved yet we've had more points kicked against us this year is also a strange result.
Yep... different opposition, different weather conditions, a difference in play across the league, a whole heap of factors impact... so drawing conclusions musty be taken with a bit of care.
I still find the results after 10 rounds interesting.
Yes Lods, very interesting results for students of the game :)
I expect Bolton to put more emphasis on scoring in the second half of the season. McKay and Kerr will probably debut and it wouldn't surprise me if LeBois gets a chance too.
2 points difference in one game is close
2 points difference in 10 rounds is....
(https://m.popkey.co/19a1cc/JajO7_f-thumbnail-100-0.jpg)
It is even curiouser when you consider in 2015 after R10 we had scored 737 pts. So there is a 9 point spread across the last 3 years, or a 1% differential. In 2015 we won 1 game in the first 10 rounds, 5 last year with 730 points, and 3 games with 728 pts this year.
The numbers don't lie - they are amazingly consistent over the last 54 games. We haven't improved scoring at all, and as a result we are still struggling to win 1 in 4 games. In BB's first 32 games our average hasn't moved at all [from the prior year] or gotten any better, so thinking that somehow he will flick a switch in the next 12 games and improve the scoring significantly is wishful and optimistic thinking. All we can hope for mid season is that he keeps changing things up and giving opportunities to different guys to see if they can add something to the set up.
The argument about whether it is the midfield or the forwards that make difference is a moot point. You clearly need both - Adelaide have the highest number of talented and experienced goal kickers, and despite having only a 'developing' midfield [remember they wanted Gibbs] they are outscoring other teams ATM by an amazing rate. Our best years have always been when we had good to great forwards and a strong spread through the midfield.
Right now we have 1 solid citizen [Wright] & 1 inconsistent, dumb and erratic back up ruckman [Cas] as the cornerstones of our forward line. Add to that a bunch of 1st/2nd year draftees. The more you think about it the more frustrated you get that we are in such a mess, and a long way from getting it solved.
Solving it takes 50+ games experience for Curnow, SOSOS, McKay, Weit, Lebois, etc.
What us your solution? Recruit an experienced player I guess? If so which one?
Ill try this again, and make the arguement even easier this time.
Last year, we had a tall forward kick 17 goals for the season, and he got delisted and retired from AFL (Andreijs Everitt).
We are doing well to be performing at the same output considering that fact alone.
I will state with confidence that scoring goals is down across the competition, irrsepective of teams at the top end kicking slightly more, as the bottom teams are conceding less on average than they did last season.
Finally, we also have another factor. The players are more used to the decrease in rotation and are starting to combat this fact in different ways.
Ill try this again, and make the arguement even easier this time.
Last year, we had a tall forward kick 17 goals for the season, and he got delisted and retired from AFL (Andreijs Everitt).
We are doing well to be performing at the same output considering that fact alone.
I will state with confidence that scoring goals is down across the competition, irrsepective of teams at the top end kicking slightly more, as the bottom teams are conceding less on average than they did last season.
Finally, we also have another factor. The players are more used to the decrease in rotation and are starting to combat this fact in different ways.
I'm trying to understand where the 'confidence' comes from that is the basis of your argument, because the stats I am looking at tell a different story. What numbers are you looking at??
Rd10 2017 across all teams the average score for is 92.3, Rd10 2016 across all teams the average score was 92.2. So scoring rates across the comp are identical to same time last year. By the end of 2016 the average score had dropped to 89, so you could argue that scoring rates this year are actually up versus FY last year, but it's a moot point.
Your point about AE is exactly right - if you lose a player who consistently kicks 18 goals and don't replace him with another player of similar or better output, you will go backwards. We didn't recruit anyone who is looking like doing that number, but others have improved slightly [Cas / SOJ] so we stay square. But given we were 3rd last in scoring last year, my contention is that 'staying square' is a really bad outcome. And as has been shown, because the bottom teams have improved their scoring versus last year, we are actually now ranked dead last in scoring.
I don't really follow how the rotations effect this?? The objective of reducing rotations by the AFL is to reduce congestion, which may [or may not] increase scoring because the ball is 'in play' more often. The stats shown above would say that there has been no impact on actual scoring rates thus far.
A huge factor in our lack of scoring this season and last is Bolton's focus on defence.
I expect him to let the boys of the leash in the second half of the season and we should hit the scoreboard more often.
A huge factor in our lack of scoring this season and last is Bolton's focus on defence.
I expect him to let the boys of the leash in the second half of the season and we should hit the scoreboard more often.
Definitely I think there could be some truth in this. BB is trying to win imo but not at the expense of ending up with a blowout against us which can be demoralising. Be interesting to see how we go for the second part of the year but I think the emphasis may still lean more towards trying to establish a defence that can control games.
i think we need to play Smedts and Palmer more....too many kids at once, no good for anyone....
That's a great analysis. IMO it is still very concerning [and scary] that we have made ZERO improvement to our scoring and goal kickers over the past 12 months.
I have banged on about this a bit, but I feel that many are missing the simple fact that we have made no progress in scoring power over the past 2.5 years. We are dead last in points for this year - we are simply never going to win games of football consistently and climb the ladder until we can improve our scoring by around 30% - 40% from where it has been stuck for a very long time.
Like a lot of others I see potential in some of the young players, but history also shows forwards, especially tall forwards, will take 3 years before they make a consistent impact and can kick 40-50+in a season. If we get Kerr and Harry into the team now, we are a still a long way away from having a top 8 scoring capability.
We can improve the defence relatively quickly [and we have with Doc, Marchbank, Plowman and Williamson], and the midfield is where we already have our 4 best players. Of course we need more quality midfield depth, but our forward line today is effectively a rabble still, led by a 27yo who will average 2 goals a game at best. All of the youngsters we have rolled through there so far this year have shown cameo's at best.
I think we need to start playing Kerr and McKay as a priority, and give KJ one last roll of the dice for a few games to see if he can show something. In the off season we need to recruit an established goal kicker and an experienced mid sized midfielder / forward to build our future forward line around - just like how we have built our backline around the experience of Simmo and Rowe [and now ACOS]. Remember our last successful drafting a KPF was Josh Kennedy in 2005!!
If we don't change something significant then we are doomed to keep getting the same scoring results as we have for the last 3.5 years. The idea that it will just 'naturally improve' has clearly been shown for a long time now to be a fallacy.
Rant over.......
Bolton said earlier this week that McKay will continue to learn his craft in the VFL but will certainly play before the season ends. If we are going to play Weitering in defence we need a 2nd key forward other wise Casboult has the role as both our only key forward and back up ruck. Tough gig. Jaksch is playing so very good football at both ends of the ground in the VFL. He can't do too much more and deserves a run in the seniors as a key forward. Too often last week, when Levi got up the ground outside 50, we had no tall to kick too in often an open 50, having to chip, and often muck up, when we could've got a clear one on one with a key forward. Jaksch could've had a chance one on one, as he a strong contested mark, or led into space, which he can do well. Thought once we got going last week we moved the ball better than we had all year. An extra tall forward would've been handy.
Solving it takes 50+ games experience for Curnow, SOSOS, McKay, Weit, Lebois, etc.
What us your solution? Recruit an experienced player I guess? If so which one?
...and what happens if they don't live up to expectation?
We've lost them, and 2+ years of experience on a potential replacement player we could've/SHOULD'VE drafted in the meantime.
Keep drafting until you have an embarrassment of riches that you can cash in on.
In the meantime.....do what we did with A. Silvagni. Take a big body who is ready to go should we need them.
I'm trying to understand where the 'confidence' comes from that is the basis of your argument, because the stats I am looking at tell a different story. What numbers are you looking at??
Rd10 2017 across all teams the average score for is 92.3, Rd10 2016 across all teams the average score was 92.2. So scoring rates across the comp are identical to same time last year. By the end of 2016 the average score had dropped to 89, so you could argue that scoring rates this year are actually up versus FY last year, but it's a moot point.
Your point about AE is exactly right - if you lose a player who consistently kicks 18 goals and don't replace him with another player of similar or better output, you will go backwards. We didn't recruit anyone who is looking like doing that number, but others have improved slightly [Cas / SOJ] so we stay square. But given we were 3rd last in scoring last year, my contention is that 'staying square' is a really bad outcome. And as has been shown, because the bottom teams have improved their scoring versus last year, we are actually now ranked dead last in scoring.
I don't really follow how the rotations effect this?? The objective of reducing rotations by the AFL is to reduce congestion, which may [or may not] increase scoring because the ball is 'in play' more often. The stats shown above would say that there has been no impact on actual scoring rates thus far.
My confidence comes from a few places.
1. No bombers/lions easy beats this year for teams to inflate their scoring.
2. On average at the end of last season (vs this season) many teams are conceding on average less points per match than last season. Likewise, it's fifty fifty in terms of teams scoring more on average (points scored/conceded divided by matches played). It's still early for this. It can change.
3. I watch a lot of footy. Games seem tighter, scoring isn't as quick, games are more open but generally the games are more end to end, with most of the play between the arcs and lots of turnovers entering forward fifty.
I might have drawn some false conclusions, and some false perceptions. However I'm confident in my opinions. Time will tell, but I'm not overly concerned about it. We're getting opportunities, we are semi efficient with scoring, there is room for improvement and if our final kick entering fifty was cleaner we'd score more goals.
Just looking at the stats we are also second last for Inside 50's per game [45.8], ahead of only Brisbane - so it's hard to say we are getting opportunities. Top 8 sides will generally average 55 per game. From these 45 entries we are averaging 10 goals per game, which is nothing flash either.
Last year we averaged 50 i50's per game over the season, so this 10% drop off is another area of real concern, and is probably more indicative of our current game style as the personnel in the midfield haven't changed much.
Some have said they think that BB will suddenly change the style in the second half and this will make a difference. There is a chance this might happen, but there has been no suggestion thus far that he will go down this path - if anything we become more defensive minded since the PA and GC games.
As a few mentioned yesterday the idea that our draftees will solve the forwardline problem is unfortunately not borne out of any previous success with this strategy - we are all 'hopeful' it will come true [over the next 2-3 years at best], but history shows you that is a low chance that it will work. Therefore you need to keep drafting KPF's constantly to spread the risk and increase the chances of finding the next Josh Kennedy [who we drafted 12 yrs ago] plus we need to actively seek a trade for an experienced and consistent goal kicker.
Attack is the best form of defense - 1970, 1972, 1995, 2007 GF's, all examples of teams who were either inherently attacking, or changed it up to go more attacking on the big day.
It's much harder for the opposition to catch you when you score 120 points per game than 70. It also makes it easier for the defense. There is simply no margin for error if your back 6 is defending measly low totals. The Crows defense, however good or bad they may be, have it easier than our boys. By this factor, our back 6 are doing a stellar job.
Attack is the best form of defense - 1970, 1972, 1995, 2007 GF's, all examples of teams who were either inherently attacking, or changed it up to go more attacking on the big day.
It's much harder for the opposition to catch you when you score 120 points per game than 70. It also makes it easier for the defense. There is simply no margin for error if your back 6 is defending measly low totals. The Crows defense, however good or bad they may be, have it easier than our boys. By this factor, our back 6 are doing a stellar job.
I think your point is often lost on people in the attack vs defence argument. For the last 3 years we have been playing the 'get the defence right, and then work on attack later' when in reality you need to both at the same time. Attack's take longer to build than good defence, as we have shown. But if you believe that then you actually need to go earlier and harder on building your attack.
It feels to me like we have made some really bad trade decisions [getting rid of Betts, Gartlett & Waite, and replacing them with KJ, Jones and Sumner] and are hoping that we can make up for this with draftees, even though our drafting history forward of centre has been putrid for over 10 years. Add to that, drafting forwards is a minimum 3 year horizon before you get real consistent return. Defenders can make a solid contribution from Year 1 - Weitering, Williamson etc.
As you say we have no margin for error, opposition sides are always in the game against us because we can't put scoreboard pressure on them, and they know they only have to kick 12-13 goals in a game to win. This puts enormous pressure on the defence from the beginning. Our team defence is doing pretty well - we concede 52 i50's per game which is ranked 7th.
Bolton is following a very similar strategy to that used by Roos with Melbourne. It will work but we'll have limited success in the short term.
The key challenge is knowing when to change the emphasis to attack.
Bolton is following a very similar strategy to that used by Roos with Melbourne. It will work but we'll have limited success in the short term.
The key challenge is knowing when to change the emphasis to attack.
Well, I hope you're right, although I have my reservations about Melbourne being a suitable model to follow.
No doubt Bolts has put down dots on paper, and some of you seem to be able to join those dots and see the picture he's trying to make. Me, I'm undecided at this point. I can see little things here and there, but doubts remain.
Well, I hope you're right, although I have my reservations about Melbourne being a suitable model to follow.
No doubt Bolts has put down dots on paper, and some of you seem to be able to join those dots and see the picture he's trying to make. Me, I'm undecided at this point. I can see little things here and there, but doubts remain.
Well put. Both points spot on.
Well, I hope you're right, although I have my reservations about Melbourne being a suitable model to follow.
No doubt Bolts has put down dots on paper, and some of you seem to be able to join those dots and see the picture he's trying to make. Me, I'm undecided at this point. I can see little things here and there, but doubts remain.
For me, the fact that BB has put dots on paper is massive compared the to the previous mob who wiped their asses with the paper and put it on the table.
My confidence comes from a few places.
1. No bombers/lions easy beats this year for teams to inflate their scoring.
2. On average at the end of last season (vs this season) many teams are conceding on average less points per match than last season. Likewise, it's fifty fifty in terms of teams scoring more on average (points scored/conceded divided by matches played). It's still early for this. It can change.
3. I watch a lot of footy. Games seem tighter, scoring isn't as quick, games are more open but generally the games are more end to end, with most of the play between the arcs and lots of turnovers entering forward fifty.
I might have drawn some false conclusions, and some false perceptions. However I'm confident in my opinions. Time will tell, but I'm not overly concerned about it. We're getting opportunities, we are semi efficient with scoring, there is room for improvement and if our final kick entering fifty was cleaner we'd score more goals.
Scoring is down, footy has changed, tougher year this year etc.
Sure.
But...
Before last round, we were the only team to not have scored 100 goals so far this season.
We've only played 2 of the top 7 teams thus far so you certainly can't blame a hard draw.
Whatever trends you perceive to be going on, we are still at the bottom of them.
Scoring is down, footy has changed, tougher year this year etc.
Sure.
But...
Before last round, we were the only team to not have scored 100 goals so far this season.
We've only played 2 of the top 7 teams thus far so you certainly can't blame a hard draw.
Whatever trends you perceive to be going on, we are still at the bottom of them.
I don't doubt that but given Port smashed hawthorn about as much as any team is going to smash anyone and still only scored 13 goals for the match, I'm not worried.
I know with better execution we'd be scoring more.
We will see how it all pans out soon enough. I'm not stupid enough to think that everything is going to be fine, but I'm not worried about stuff at this stage.
Attack is the best form of defense - 1970, 1972, 1995, 2007 GF's, all examples of teams who were either inherently attacking, or changed it up to go more attacking on the big day.
It's much harder for the opposition to catch you when you score 120 points per game than 70. It also makes it easier for the defense. There is simply no margin for error if your back 6 is defending measly low totals. The Crows defense, however good or bad they may be, have it easier than our boys. By this factor, our back 6 are doing a stellar job.
Never helped Geelong in the 90s. In big finals defence is a big key. any coach will say that. 1995 and 2007 were simply massacres, simply one side being far superior to the other. 70 and 72 were simply another era.
...and what happens if they don't live up to expectation?
We've lost them, and 2+ years of experience on a potential replacement player we could've/SHOULD'VE drafted in the meantime.
Keep drafting until you have an embarrassment of riches that you can cash in on.
In the meantime.....do what we did with A. Silvagni. Take a big body who is ready to go should we need them.
The old fine balancing act of recruiting, when to go young, when to blend it with experience, or if you're a top side, when to top up if you think you're near a flag. Getting the timing right of various type of recruiting is so important.
Never helped Geelong in the 90s. In big finals defence is a big key. any coach will say that. 1995 and 2007 were simply massacres, simply one side being far superior to the other. 70 and 72 were simply another era.
You won't lose too many games, finals or otherwise, if you kick 110-120 points per game.
I'm not saying it's easy, I'm not saying it's necessarily possible, but it should be the aim.
I don't doubt that but given Port smashed hawthorn about as much as any team is going to smash anyone and still only scored 13 goals for the match, I'm not worried.
I know with better execution we'd be scoring more.
We will see how it all pans out soon enough. I'm not stupid enough to think that everything is going to be fine, but I'm not worried about stuff at this stage.
That's an interesting example - Port had 64 i50's and 35+shots on goal. The fact that they couldn't convert and only kicked 13 goals is more about their terrible conversion and Hawthorns extra numbers in defence rather than a lack of scoring power. They should have easily kicked 20 goals based on their numbers alone.
I'm curious at what stage you do get worried about our attack? We've been bottom 4 for scoring for the last 3 years, and dead last right now - our kids up forward have some 'potential' but none have even had a breakout game that says they can kick goals at the level. Our key forward is a 27 yo who has only played 80 game and averages a goal a game and less than 10 disposals - in a forwardline where he has no competition. Do we wait until end 2018 or 2019 before we wake up to the fact that our lack of forwards means we will never move off the bottom rungs of the ladder?
You won't lose too many games, finals or otherwise, if you kick 110-120 points per game.
I'm not saying it's easy, I'm not saying it's necessarily possible, but it should be the aim.
That's if you're playing well and probably well in front. Simply means you're a better side. To win premierships defence must come first. Won't be a coach who disagrees with that. Finals have so much contested ball and pressure hence if your defence buckles you're shot. Obviously you have to score too but comes with a good side, and a good game plan.
Any coach with even half a brain will hopefully tell you that both defense and offense wins you games and flags. If defense was king, Ross Lyon would have a few flags by now.
Any coach with even half a brain will hopefully tell you that both defense and offense wins you games and flags. If defense was king, Ross Lyon would have a few flags by now.
So right, Grasshopper... Yin, Yang... balance. 8)
Any coach with even half a brain will hopefully tell you that both defense and offense wins you games and flags. If defense was king, Ross Lyon would have a few flags by now.
Lyon's unlucky not to have a few flags. A lucky toe poke on 2009, and shocking bounce in 2010 and was only 15pts away in 2013.
Every coach will tell you though it all starts with defence. There's a very good reason Bolton is starting with defence first. It's what Roos did too. Roos was a premiership coach. Malthouse always focused on defence first, and i'm not talking about his days at Carlton. Offense is important obviously as scoring is pretty damn handy but it defence first.
http://www.theroar.com.au/2014/08/13/defence-may-be-the-best-form-of-attack-but-attack-is-the-best-method-of-winning-premierships/
http://www.theroar.com.au/2014/08/13/defence-may-be-the-best-form-of-attack-but-attack-is-the-best-method-of-winning-premierships/
The defense rests.
I guess though it comes back to..... do you concentrate on tightening up the defence as the first part of the puzzle and once you've stabilised that area then work towards developing the scoring power as the finishing touch.
That seems to be the path we're taking.
I guess though it comes back to..... do you concentrate on tightening up the defence as the first part of the puzzle and once you've stabilised that area then work towards developing the scoring power as the finishing touch.
That seems to be the path we're taking.
I'm guessing which line gets developed first partly depends on the coach's ideas and also on who is available to draft / trade at any given time. I can't believe the club would pass up a gun KPF simply because they're focusing on the back 6.
I don't see why they can't be developed simultaneously, and I don't see any logic to the fact that the defense must come first. Frankly I don't particularly care. Whenever the reset is finished, I just want to see a team that can kick 100-110 points on a regular basis.
That's an interesting example - Port had 64 i50's and 35+shots on goal. The fact that they couldn't convert and only kicked 13 goals is more about their terrible conversion and Hawthorns extra numbers in defence rather than a lack of scoring power. They should have easily kicked 20 goals based on their numbers alone.
I'm curious at what stage you do get worried about our attack? We've been bottom 4 for scoring for the last 3 years, and dead last right now - our kids up forward have some 'potential' but none have even had a breakout game that says they can kick goals at the level. Our key forward is a 27 yo who has only played 80 game and averages a goal a game and less than 10 disposals - in a forwardline where he has no competition. Do we wait until end 2018 or 2019 before we wake up to the fact that our lack of forwards means we will never move off the bottom rungs of the ladder?
Don't you see its a subjective stat??
Three teams kicked over 14 goals for the round.
Two of them played against each other in a shoot-out with one kicking 18, the other 15.
Leigh Mathews said, first to 15 goals wins.
Adelaide's much revered forwardline was useless this week.
Don't get me wrong, I think we do need some improvement in our forwardline but I can see enough improvement in jack Silvagni and Charlie Curnow to suggest that they will do better in future. I also believe that with some different players we could kick more goals.
Why I'm not worried is that we are getting in there often enough but not hitting the scoreboard as often as we could be as we turn it over entering our fifty by hitting up speculative targets or not playing the percentages. We are trending upwards here too.
What I'm thinking is that the we don't kick enough goals is alarmist. Goals are the finishing of work. An example of why I'm not worried is that if we hit better targets inside forward fifty we could kick more goals with our current cattle. To suggest that they won't improve that is false, and that's without factoring growth or recruitment.
Our key forward is a 27 yo who has only played 80 game and averages a goal a game and less than 10 disposals - in a forwardline where he has no competition...........
SBF.........Shhhhh...Shhhhhh....., (https://images.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.clipartbest.com%2Fcliparts%2F4c9%2Fbqo%2F4c9bqoncE.png&f=1)
you must whisper those facts or you'll be labelled a Casboult basher! :o
In fairness to Casboult, his first 80 games is about the same as Betts!
OMG, could Casboult become the highest rated small forward in the AFL? ;D
Don't you see its a subjective stat??
Three teams kicked over 14 goals for the round.
Two of them played against each other in a shoot-out with one kicking 18, the other 15.
Leigh Mathews said, first to 15 goals wins.
Adelaide's much revered forwardline was useless this week.
Don't get me wrong, I think we do need some improvement in our forwardline but I can see enough improvement in jack Silvagni and Charlie Curnow to suggest that they will do better in future. I also believe that with some different players we could kick more goals.
Why I'm not worried is that we are getting in there often enough but not hitting the scoreboard as often as we could be as we turn it over entering our fifty by hitting up speculative targets or not playing the percentages. We are trending upwards here too.
What I'm thinking is that the we don't kick enough goals is alarmist. Goals are the finishing of work. An example of why I'm not worried is that if we hit better targets inside forward fifty we could kick more goals with our current cattle. To suggest that they won't improve that is false, and that's without factoring growth or recruitment.
Of course this is largely subjective, and everyone is perfectly entitled to their opinion. My position is based primarily on stats that I think are often overlooked.
If people think that being second last in inside 50's and 10% lower than this time last year is 'getting the ball in enough' then I'll go heave. Our conversion of inside 50's into scoring shots and goals is about the league average. Where I disagree with many though is the assertion that we will 'naturally improve' or the coaches will suddenly switch tack and we will suddenly become much better in attack, despite a 60 game trendline that shows no improvement at all. There is a bit of potential in a few of our youngsters, but we individually and collectively we have delivered very little in attack all year.
A competent forwardline begins with having a bunch of good forwards on your list, with a mix of experienced and developing players - just like we have with the defence and midfield. Until we get more AFL standard forwards onto our list, or start playing the ones we do have, then I can't see how we improve!
SBF.........Shhhhh...Shhhhhh....., (https://images.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.clipartbest.com%2Fcliparts%2F4c9%2Fbqo%2F4c9bqoncE.png&f=1)
you must whisper those facts or you'll be labelled a Casboult basher! :o
In fairness to Casboult, his first 80 games is about the same as Betts!
OMG, could Casboult become the highest rated small forward in the AFL? ;D
Ha Ha - like for many here Casboult to me is the most frustrating player on our list. It's an interesting comparison, but Betts played 80 games after his first 4 years and was improving his output each year. The big thing with Betts is how he has developed and gotten better nearly every year he has played. Playing in a good side with a very talented forwardline has also [unsurprisingly] helped him a lot at the Crows.
Cas on the other hand is simply not smart enough as a footballer to ever be a good forward. He is an awesome contested mark, but is just in the wrong place at the wrong time way too often to ever build a forwardline around, as he is also often putting the other players out of position as well.
Ha Ha - like for many here Casboult to me is the most frustrating player on our list. It's an interesting comparison, but Betts played 80 games after his first 4 years and was improving his output each year. The big thing with Betts is how he has developed and gotten better nearly every year he has played. Playing in a good side with a very talented forwardline has also [unsurprisingly] helped him a lot at the Crows.
Cas on the other hand is simply not smart enough as a footballer to ever be a good forward. He is an awesome contested mark, but is just in the wrong place at the wrong time way too often to ever build a forwardline around, as he is also often putting the other players out of position as well.
no, the mids put the forward line out of position, as the forwards never have any idea when the bll is actually going to (maybe) get moved into F50.
Slow ball movement kills everything, forwards and scoring in particular.
Same people who wanted us to get rid of Betts (and there were MANY on here) will probably be hopeful of losing Cas.
He'll kick 3 times as many goals at a top club.
Of course this is largely subjective, and everyone is perfectly entitled to their opinion. My position is based primarily on stats that I think are often overlooked.
If people think that being second last in inside 50's and 10% lower than this time last year is 'getting the ball in enough' then I'll go heave. Our conversion of inside 50's into scoring shots and goals is about the league average. Where I disagree with many though is the assertion that we will 'naturally improve' or the coaches will suddenly switch tack and we will suddenly become much better in attack, despite a 60 game trendline that shows no improvement at all. There is a bit of potential in a few of our youngsters, but we individually and collectively we have delivered very little in attack all year.
A competent forwardline begins with having a bunch of good forwards on your list, with a mix of experienced and developing players - just like we have with the defence and midfield. Until we get more AFL standard forwards onto our list, or start playing the ones we do have, then I can't see how we improve!
I don't necessarily expect we will flick the switch and kick more goals.
What I expect is that we will look at our forward entries, analyse what we are not doing well (turning it over when entering forward fifty, because we are bombing long too frequently) and concentrate on better leading patterns and lowering vision to spot up free targets.
Our forward fifty entries are focusing on quality over quantity yet we still revert to bombing it in from time to time.
I think we'll fix this when Samo, fisher, Cunningham and Polson are another year older and more able to compete more frequently than they can currently. Likewise having some better targets to hit up (Curnow and Jack sos next season) plus maybe another emerging player (McKay?) might get us much closer to kicking whatever target you think we need to be to win more games.
Same people who wanted us to get rid of Betts (and there were MANY on here) will probably be hopeful of losing Cas.
He'll kick 3 times as many goals at a top club.
So you think he'll be leading the Coleman medal at another club..........really?
Yet we offered him a short term deal, and no other club showed interest when they could have got a potential Coleman medallist cheaply! ;D
Cas on the other hand is simply not smart enough as a footballer to ever be a good forward. He is an awesome contested mark, but is just in the wrong place at the wrong time way too often to ever build a forwardline around, as he is also often putting the other players out of position as well.
My biggest complaint about Casboult is not his kicking, lack of goal scoring, poor or non-existent 2nd and 3rd efforts in the ruck, where he leads or the decisions he makes.
My biggest beef with Meat is that opposition clubs can put 188cm x 85kg defenders on him and almost completely eliminate his effectiveness.
So you think he'll be leading the Coleman medal at another club..........really?
Yet we offered him a short term deal, and no other club showed interest when they could have got a potential Coleman medallist cheaply! ;D
Last 2 year he kicked roughly 20 goals. I think he could kick 50 or 60. That's at the top end and would depend on which team but wouldn't be a coleman medal which is about 80ish.
Last 2 year he kicked roughly 20 goals. I think he could kick 50 or 60. That's at the top end and would depend on which team but wouldn't be a coleman medal which is about 80ish.
Hmmmm, you posted...
He'll kick 3 times as many goals at a top club.
To Rnd 10 he's kicked 17, 3 x 17 is 51. The best in the league are on 34 at the moment, (Kennedy and Cameron), there is no way he'll kick 33% more goals than Kennedy or Cameron.
Casboult is probably on track to kick 40 this season, that is about as good as it'll get for him, and already roughly twice as good as he's ever been before! In fact the most scoring shots he's ever had in a season so far is 36(18-18 and 24-12).
His return / performance is never going to go up another 300% to 400%, to have him kick 60 goals he probably needs 100 to 120 scoring attempts.
Just on Casboult, here's an interesting thing to ponder about him.
In our 10 wins over the last 2 years, he has kicked a total of 9 goals! So when we are playing well under BB he is almost always a non factor. Not sure how you could say with any certainty based on this that he would kick more goals in a better side. Yes he may get better service from the guys up the field, but he is also going to be competing with other competent forwards for the ball.
I agree with Jeza on a lot of things, but I think this is a big stretch.
After 11 Games
2016
Goals 121 Behinds 106-832 (points against 965)
Percentage 86.2 %
2017(Target 224-224-1568)
Goals 117 Behinds 97-799 (points against 993)
Percentage 80.5 %
Goalkickers (Target 2016- Wright 22)
Casboult 18
Wright 15
Silvagni 9
Gibbs 9
After 11 games we’ve now dropped behind our 2016 goal tally and also our percentage from last year. In light of yesterday, and recent efforts, I doubt there will be great concern…After this game in 2016 we only won one more for the year. There’s a fair chance we can do a little better in the remainder of the year.
Just on Casboult, here's an interesting thing to ponder about him.
In our 10 wins over the last 2 years, he has kicked a total of 9 goals! So when we are playing well under BB he is almost always a non factor. Not sure how you could say with any certainty based on this that he would kick more goals in a better side. Yes he may get better service from the guys up the field, but he is also going to be competing with other competent forwards for the ball.
I agree with Jeza on a lot of things, but I think this is a big stretch.
Love how those with agendas take simple stats use it to justify their agenda. You do know that after he took 11 marks, and kicked 3.2 in the win against Collingwood last year he hurt his knee in the first minute of the next win against Port and was off for the day and was never the same for the rest of the year. The previous two wins to that were against Freo and Essendon in utterly dreadful games where the ball didn't come in at all well. Both could've qualified as the worst game of the year by a mile. Ball wasn't exactly coming in like it would'v been if he was playing for a top side like the Crows. Actually got 16 possession against Freo that day, including 6 marks, just didn't kick very straight. You also know in the Essendon win this year conditions were so dreadful that our key forwards weren't kicking goals.
You reckon if he wasn't playing for a side like Adelaide, who average way more than us and get the ball in way more clearly he wouldn't kick alot more goals. Ball would be flying into an open forward line giving him away more one on ones. He's have to share more but Adelaide kick alot more too. Like, really, that is simple. If you're going to use simple stats think a bit more.
After 12 Games
2016
Goals 133 Behinds 112-910 (points against 1075)
Percentage 84.7 %
2017(Target 224-224-1568)
Goals 129 Behinds 108-882 (points against 1066)
Percentage 82.7 %
Goalkickers (Target 2016- Wright 22)
Casboult 18
Wright 16
Silvagni 11
Gibbs 11
12th game 2016-12 goals
12th game 2017-12 goals…but this time a win. :D
After 12 Games
2016
Goals 133 Behinds 112-910 (points against 1075)
Percentage 84.7 %
2017
Goals 129 Behinds 108-882 (points against 1066)
Percentage 82.7 %
Interesting ... and certainly not the goal fest I was anticipating/hoping for!
Clearly Bolton's priority/strategy is to stop the other mob scoring so that if we do get headed, one or two goals will get the lead back. Even though it's low scoring, it's good to watch ... particularly when we win :)
Interesting ... and certainly not the goal fest I was anticipating/hoping for!
Clearly Bolton's priority/strategy is to stop the other mob scoring so that if we do get headed, one or two goals will get the lead back. Even though it's low scoring, it's good to watch ... particularly when we win :)
We seem to be developing a sort of "arm wrestling" gamestyle. I found the last two games especially quite fascinating - certainly no complaints from the point of view of it being good to watch.
Next week's game will be interesting.
As the ladder stands at the moment....We have the worst Goal scoring record and Richmond have the second best defensive record.
A win against the odds ;) :D
After 13 Games
2016
Goals 142 Behinds 123-975 (points against 1202)
Percentage 81.1 %
2017(Target 224-224-1568)
Goals 137 Behinds 118-940 (points against 1150 )
Percentage 81.7 %
Goalkickers (Target 2016- Wright 22)
Casboult 20
Wright 17
Silvagni 11
Gibbs 11
After 14 Games
2016
Goals 148 Behinds 132-1020 (points against 1259)
Percentage 81.0 %
2017(Target 224-224-1568)
Goals 149 Behinds 123-1017 (points against 1239 )
Percentage 82.1 %
Goalkickers (Target 2016- Wright 22)
Casboult 22 :D
Wright 18
Gibbs 13
Silvagni 12
-After 14 games there is only 3 points between our 2016 and 2017 totals.
-Casboult has equalled Wright's 2016 individual goal score.
Looks like Casboult is gone according to recent form...
Looks like Casboult is gone according to recent form...
;D ;D ;D
After 14 Games
2016
Goals 148 Behinds 132-1020 (points against 1259)
Percentage 81.0 %
2017(Target 224-224-1568)
Goals 149 Behinds 123-1017 (points against 1239 )
Percentage 82.1 %
Goalkickers (Target 2016- Wright 22)
Casboult 22 :D
Wright 18
Gibbs 13
Silvagni 12
-After 14 games there is only 3 points between our 2016 and 2017 totals.
-Casboult has equalled Wright's 2016 individual goal score.
The interesting things I take out of this season so far are :
1. we might not be kicking more goals, but we are getting a few more guys kicking more goals. Good team have multiple players kicking more that 20 for the year, and by years end we should Cas on 30 or so, and Wright, Gibbs, Silvagni kicking 20 or so. That's a step in the right direction. If Curnow starts taking games apart, he might be the elusive fwd we need who can kick 40. I think he certainly has the talent, just hope he can fulfil it. Then we'll be cooking.
2. I've mentioned in other posts I really want to see the boys finish the year stronger than last year. If we can do that then we'll finish with more goals than last year. Upwards trajectory is something Bucks could only dream of...
After 13 Games
2016
Goals 142 Behinds 123-975 (points against 1202)
Percentage 81.1 %
2017(Target 224-224-1568)
Goals 137 Behinds 118-940 (points against 1150 )
Percentage 81.7 %
Goalkickers (Target 2016- Wright 22)
Casboult 20
Wright 17
Silvagni 11
Gibbs 11
Let's see how the comparison is at season's end. You'd hope for a much better %, as the status quo is not what we want... We don't want to be the side that consistently finishes in the bottom 6 but never gets thrashed and is difficult to beat! As for Casboult... a key forward of his size should be around 40 goals by now... a target of 22 (Wright, 2016) is embarrassingly modest.
Like Buddy and Cameron lead on 40 goals. They're the only two. Daniher on 38. Next big man is Riewoldt (J) on 35 and there's a bunch close behind.
I don't think anyone would compare Casboult to Buddy and Cameron, or the delivery that they receive.
Let's see how the comparison is at season's end. You'd hope for a much better %, as the status quo is not what we want... We don't want to be the side that consistently finishes in the bottom 6 but never gets thrashed and is difficult to beat! As for Casboult... a key forward of his size should be around 40 goals by now... a target of 22 (Wright, 2016) is embarrassingly modest.
But he's not a key forward ;)
Jenkins is a back up ruckman who plays second banana to Tex Walker as a forward and he's kicked 22.12 to Casboult's 22.11 (Casboult gets more hitouts). Of course, Jenkins gets more opportunities playing for one of the premiership favourites. Unfortunately for Casboult (and us), he doesn't have Tex Walker playing alongside him, good delivery from a full quota of midfielders or a quality small forward to crumb and provide defensive pressure inside 50.
Let's see how the comparison is at season's end. You'd hope for a much better %, as the status quo is not what we want... We don't want to be the side that consistently finishes in the bottom 6 but never gets thrashed and is difficult to beat! As for Casboult... a key forward of his size should be around 40 goals by now... a target of 22 (Wright, 2016) is embarrassingly modest.
Not everyone's performance is directly measured in goals. He's marking well, getting physical at contests and creating a number of chances for others to score. I think it was the GWS game that he had 8 score involvements. He does spend quite a bit of time quite a bit of time in the ruck as well. Would help him too if the ball came in quick and direct but our defensive game style, which is working ok for us, doesn't allow alot of goals kicked. Fortunately doesn't allow the opposition to kick many either.
There's a reason why sides such as Richmond, Collingwood and Freo are showing interest in him. For someone we got deep down the rookie draft we've done ok there. Made good use of his strengths withing limited abilities. If we had our way he'd be the 2nd tall forward and 2nd ruck with a top line key forward taking the responsibility to hit the scoreboard but we don't have that yet although what we see in the VFL is promising.
Daniel Menzel doing well wit 30 goals this season.
Perhaps we get Troy back as a (small) part of a Gibbs trade, if it happens!
Daniel Menzel doing well wit 30 goals this season.
Perhaps we get Troy back as a (small) part of a Gibbs trade, if it happens!
The Crows forward line is not the easiest to break into, but we've seen enough of Troy to know he isn't the answer.
Have we Paul?
In 2014, as a 19yo, he kicked 26 goals for us in 19 games....the guy can play.
He's 22 now, still very young.....he is every bit as good as his brother.
Can't comment on his head space...
Let's see how the comparison is at season's end. You'd hope for a much better %, as the status quo is not what we want... We don't want to be the side that consistently finishes in the bottom 6 but never gets thrashed and is difficult to beat! As for Casboult... a key forward of his size should be around 40 goals by now... a target of 22 (Wright, 2016) is embarrassingly modest.
He can't win.
Have we Paul?
In 2014, as a 19yo, he kicked 26 goals for us in 19 games....the guy can play.
He's 22 now, still very young.....he is every bit as good as his brother.
Can't comment on his head space...
That's the issue right there.
He can't win.
no, he can't!
He can't win.
An underperforming key forward who is outdoing his previous performances is an improvement for sure.
However, an improved underperforming key forward does not mean he is playing at an acceptable level, or even average level. He can still be a below average forward...and i believe he is.
But he's not a key forward ;)
Jenkins is a back up ruckman who plays second banana to Tex Walker as a forward and he's kicked 22.12 to Casboult's 22.11 (Casboult gets more hitouts). Of course, Jenkins gets more opportunities playing for one of the premiership favourites. Unfortunately for Casboult (and us), he doesn't have Tex Walker playing alongside him, good delivery from a full quota of midfielders or a quality small forward to crumb and provide defensive pressure inside 50.
Not such a good comparison as Jenkins has played 4 less games (almost 30% less game time) than Meat so far this year and being the focal point means Meat gets a lot more traffic/opportunity through him than Jenkins does. I'd be confident that Meat would like to be doing better than he is as would his coaches and team mates, and there's little doubt he and the club would benefit from H helping out.
Not such a good comparison as Jenkins has played 4 less games (almost 30% less game time) than Meat so far this year and being the focal point means Meat gets a lot more traffic/opportunity through him than Jenkins does. I'd be confident that Meat would like to be doing better than he is as would his coaches and team mates, and there's little doubt he and the club would benefit from H helping out.
It's really not a good comparison because Jenkins is playing in a top 2 team and he has the luxury of Walker taking the best defender, etc, etc. Casboult may get more balls kicked in his direction but Jenkins doesn't have two or three defenders trying to nullify him.
I think that comparing Casboult with Tex Walker is an apples and oranges situation but Walker has kicked 14% of the Crows' goals, Levi has kicked 15% of ours.
I don't think Casboult is anywhere near the class of Walker, Franklin, Kennedy, etc but he's not bad as a second ruck, part time key forward. Put a decent tall forward alongside Meat and he'll do OK ... and I'm starting to have nightmares about Collingwood with Moore and Casboult :(
Second best forward in the league for contested marks behind Dixon.
Not bad for an "underperforming" key forward.
Take him out of our team and there would be one massive gaping hole that would take years to fill. Anyone who thinks otherwise is kidding themselves.
An underperforming key forward who is outdoing his previous performances is an improvement for sure.
However, an improved underperforming key forward does not mean he is playing at an acceptable level, or even average level. He can still be a below average forward...and i believe he is.
other
He's more a 2nd forward/ruck. He's taking marks, crashing packs, creating scoring chances and at least hitting the scoreboard. Doing a good job in his roles. I'm thinking Kreuzer and Casboult are about the best ruck combo in the game. The simple thinkers will go by goals only those that know about about the game will take the performance into account. There's a reason why he's getting interest from other clubs. I'll go with them rather than some poster with an agenda.
other
He's more a 2nd forward/ruck. He's taking marks, crashing packs, creating scoring chances and at least hitting the scoreboard. Doing a good job in his roles. I'm thinking Kreuzer and Casboult are about the best ruck combo in the game. The simple thinkers will go by goals only those that know about about the game will take the performance into account. There's a reason why he's getting interest from other clubs. I'll go with them rather than some poster with an agenda.
Kreuzer+Casboult might be the best ruck combo in the game.
You know what though.
Kreuzer might be the best ruck in the game at present, so as good as casboult might be doing in the ruck (that part is very debateable anyway) he is more like training wheels on a motorbike. There just in case, but not really needed.
Sure Casboult does things other than kick goals. But when he is your #1 forward (whether he is better suited to #1, #2 or #13 is incidental) and your team has the worst forwardline going for the second year running, then perhaps we need to have a big rethink about that forwardline. Having a bloke who struggles to kick accurately, especially under pressure, should set off red flags when trying to come up with a functional forwardline.
Us 'simple thinkers' were able to see that Fevola was indeed capable of being traded and being covered from such a trading. Unfortunately not all people were able to foresee such a thing, despite being self-proclaimed deep thinkers. :-[
Perhaps lightning can strike twice Jimbo. Let go of YOUR agenda and think outside of the box you hid yourself in. Still plenty of people probably owed an apology from your narrow minded agenda driven insults from the past. But better to have a name change than own up to that right?
So feel free to tee off on casboult then and we'll all shut up about it because you were right about something to do with fevola...
Cas can kick straight, all but lead the league for contested marks, lead our goal kicking... And you can complain about how his left shoe lace is too short and we'll all agree he should be dropped / traded / shot.
I get the need to criticise our players when they are going badly but this feels more like some built up opinions that some people can't let go.
Many opinions about Cas , but he serves a purpose and this year has become a little more versatile. Seems to have his leading & marking feel back. Funny thing is that the year that Sav was missing he was spraying them all over. So he is teachable and seems more on track all round. Still a place for him here. But a second forward eg maybe time to bring in McKay for a run would be intersting & a little more space & freedom.
So feel free to tee off on casboult then and we'll all shut up about it because you were right about something to do with fevola...
Cas can kick straight, all but lead the league for contested marks, lead our goal kicking... And you can complain about how his left shoe lace is too short and we'll all agree he should be dropped / traded / shot.
I get the need to criticise our players when they are going badly but this feels more like some built up opinions that some people can't let go.
That Fev bit was specifically for Jimbo. It makes a point that others won't get.
As for Casboult, ask yourself a few questions.
1. Would you feel comfortable with the ball in his hands to win you a game of footy after the siren? Grand Final?
2. Do you think he would be a part of this side if we were legitimately vying for a flag?
3. Are you content with him as our FF/CHF for the medium-long term?
My answer to all of those questions is no.
That does not mean i don't appreciate what he does on the field.
That does not mean i don't cheer him on as much as the next bloke.
That does not mean i wish anything bad for him.
What it does mean is i want the best for this club.
What it does mean is that i think we need to make some hard calls on some players.
What it does mean is that I think Casboult needs to be replaced for the benefit of the club....and some others too
Nothing personal.
It's very easy for someone to say that a bloke like.....Dan Gorringe should get the chop at the end of the year. He is not in our long term future, blah blah. Well...why is that different to Casboult? Because he is playing games of footy? Doesn't mean he is up to standard, just means the cupboard is bare, and has been for a long time.
Jims argument the way I see it isnt about Casboult being a FF/CHF down the track ...its about him being a Forward pocket/No 2 ruckman and that the Kruezer/Casboult combo
is one of the better ruck combos going around.
Hopefully Kerr, Harry and maybe Jack will be taking those shots after the siren...
Rowe is a better ruckman than Gorringe....
That Fev bit was specifically for Jimbo. It makes a point that others won't get.
As for Casboult, ask yourself a few questions.
1. Would you feel comfortable with the ball in his hands to win you a game of footy after the siren? Grand Final?
2. Do you think he would be a part of this side if we were legitimately vying for a flag?
3. Are you content with him as our FF/CHF for the medium-long term?
My answer to all of those questions is no.
That does not mean i don't appreciate what he does on the field.
That does not mean i don't cheer him on as much as the next bloke.
That does not mean i wish anything bad for him.
What it does mean is i want the best for this club.
What it does mean is that i think we need to make some hard calls on some players.
What it does mean is that I think Casboult needs to be replaced for the benefit of the club....and some others too
Nothing personal.
It's very easy for someone to say that a bloke like.....Dan Gorringe should get the chop at the end of the year. He is not in our long term future, blah blah. Well...why is that different to Casboult? Because he is playing games of footy? Doesn't mean he is up to standard, just means the cupboard is bare, and has been for a long time.
Gorringe should be used like that big bloke at the Cats... a ruck-rover mid type....
Gorringe should be used like that big bloke at the Cats... a ruck-rover mid type....
Blicavs....Gorringe likes his footy a bit too bruise free, skills are good but he just doesnt attack the ball well enough or show enough intent, his ruckwork is novice like
Gorringe will be gone at the end of the season.
Seems pretty simple ???
While Casboult is the best we have in the position...he's in the team.
When somebody better comes along he's not.
When he's not able to make the side... we'll be a pretty good side. :D
Seems pretty simple ???
While Casboult is the best we have in the position...he's in the team.
When somebody better comes along he's not.
When he's not able to make the side... we'll be a pretty good side. :D
Summed it up perfectly as usual Lods :)
However, there is another possibility:
When he's not in the side... he'll be playing in a better side :(
Jarrod Brander might be an option with pick 2
Seems pretty simple ???
While Casboult is the best we have in the position...he's in the team. Which is what's happening now. When we had J Waite, he was our key forward... when not injured or out reported.
When somebody better comes along he's not. We've been trying to replace him for years but recruited badly... (Watson, McCarthy that other bloke who played 1 game!) Lucky fella, Meat.
When he's not able to make the side... we'll be a pretty good side. :D Yep, couldn't agree more.
Luke Mitchell was the other bloke who played one game.
Jarrod Brander might be an option with pick 2
Apart from Rayner who is the standout No 1 by a long way IMO we could end up with a variety of different players to pick from given
the evenness of the top 10, Brander is a very strong mark but is regarded by many as a better KP defender than forward..
Seeing as Rayner wont get through to us I like Darcy Fogarty from SA...can play onball and down forward...has some physical edge to his game too...
Rayner reminds me of Jake Stringer.
I'm less sure about him than others. Flashy... but will he evolve or us he a manchild?
There's a very good reason why we're the lowest scoring team in the competition and it's simply because we have no forwards of the required standard.
Charlie and Jack will be ok but neither of them are key position or ever likely to be, Wright is by far our best small forward and he's not what anyone would call top class.
Casboult is the best key forward we've got at the moment but after 80 or 90 games his numbers are nothing flash, and when his agent hawked him around the best deal he could get was one year with us.
We're slowly building a decent side but until we get a key forward we won't be going far in September.
Rayner reminds me of Jake Stringer.
I'm less sure about him than others. Flashy... but will he evolve or us he a manchild?
Main comparison with Rayner by all the scribes is Dusty Martin...got the big fend off like Dusty and gets forward to kick goals...
Big kids usually end up being big men...difference with Rayner to most of the other top 10 candidates is he will play rnd 1
in 2018. Luke Davies-Uniacke is a player that might interest us...big mid who wins plenty of contested ball, probably not as polished as Rayner
and more of your workhorse type.
Graham should have played before either SPS or Fisher today.
Both MIA.
Main comparison with Rayner by all the scribes is Dusty Martin...got the big fend off like Dusty and gets forward to kick goals...
Big kids usually end up being big men...difference with Rayner to most of the other top 10 candidates is he will play rnd 1
in 2018. Luke Davies-Uniacke is a player that might interest us...big mid who wins plenty of contested ball, probably not as polished as Rayner
and more of your workhorse type.
Chance our first pick could end up at GWS if we indeed we are into Josh Kelly.
Just going to our leading goal kicking thus far.
According to footywire:
23 Casboult (33rd in the league)
20 Wright (40th)
15 SOJ
13 Gibbs
If I've got this right, Casboult has already surpassed last years record (Wright 22)
I think that's another little win :))
Casboult played a really good solid role today, congrats to him.
Casboult played a really good solid role today, congrats to him.
Yes he did but his kicking to a target inside 50 needs serious work. Turns great scoring opportunities for us into intercept marks for them. Very frustrating
Just going to our leading goal kicking thus far.
According to footywire:
23 Casboult (33rd in the league)
20 Wright (40th)
15 SOJ
13 Gibbs
If I've got this right, Casboult has already surpassed last years record (Wright 22)
I think that's another little win :))
Shame we haven't got another tall forward to kick to....e.g. Harry.
Yes he did but his kicking to a target inside 50 needs serious work. Turns great scoring opportunities for us into intercept marks for them. Very frustrating
The entire team needs serious work in the dept.
I don't really understand why Weitering isn't used more up the ground to deliver I50.
Our Pick 2or 3, will'll more value to us to help secure midfielders of the caliber of Kelly & or Whitfield and say Hopper as grunt and assistance to Cripps. Lets face it there's no one of their brilliance in this year's top 10.
Take a KPF in super draft 2018, anyone of Jack Lukosious, Max and Ben King and there's more talls , will be Stars players and of course we have our own Ben Silvagni. After 2020 we'd be set to challenge the top 4.
Luke Mitchell was the other bloke who played one game.
That's right, thank you 3 Leos. Was going to be the next Fev ::)
Graham should have played before either SPS or Fisher today.
Both MIA.
Huh?
Samo was much improved and Zac had some real impact I thought. Love that we're getting games into these guys and they aren't charity. They're really playing the way Bolton wants. Always charging at the opposition and not giving them a moment to settle. Samo had game high 9 tackles / 16 disposals / 3 clearances and goal of the year from a flank - so I'm not sure what you expected but that's a pretty good game for me.
Fisher had 5 tackles (4th for us) and 10 pos. with 2 centre clearances. A good effort.
If we want someone to sit out on his own and run like buggery whenever he's a chance to get an easy kick and not get out of 2nd gear at any other point - then pick Nick Graham. This is why he's not getting a game and why others are preferred.
Shame we haven't got another tall forward to kick to....e.g. Harry.
Agreed. Charlie / Cas / Harry would be a pretty good mix.
Huh?
Samo was much improved and Zac had some real impact I thought. Love that we're getting games into these guys and they aren't charity. They're really playing the way Bolton wants. Always charging at the opposition and not giving them a moment to settle. Samo had game high 9 tackles / 16 disposals / 3 clearances and goal of the year from a flank - so I'm not sure what you expected but that's a pretty good game for me.
Fisher had 5 tackles (4th for us) and 10 pos. with 2 centre clearances. A good effort.
If we want someone to sit out on his own and run like buggery whenever he's a chance to get an easy kick and not get out of 2nd gear at any other point - then pick Nick Graham. This is why he's not getting a game and why others are preferred.
The amount of pressure these two put on cannot be underestimated Imho. Remember Melbournes goal that was dissallowed from the bloke running too far (hunt??) it was Fisher just chasing him and not giving up that saved that from being a goal.
Flyboy calls for Fish and SPS to be given a spell in the 2's every week. Don't take that opinion as a widely accepted one.
Fisher doesn't have to get much of the ball to make an impact.
The amount of pressure these two put on cannot be underestimated Imho. Remember Melbournes goal that was dissallowed from the bloke running too far (hunt??) it was Fisher just chasing him and not giving up that saved that from being a goal.
The stats certainly suggest Samo had more impact than I saw (I'll watch replay late tonight).
Zac, for now, not my cup of tea....agree to disagree.
Thats ok Fly. After all, we dont have many to bring in to take these two out either, and without Cripps and White next week we are starting to scrape the bottom of the barrel.
My Major knock on Fisher is the inability to use his right foot, but better players than him have used one foot for their entire careers, and given Jack's left foot snap that went out on the full, perhaps we are better off not encouraging a low percentage execution if they dont have confidence in it.
Flyboy calls for Fish and SPS to be given a spell in the 2's every week. Don't take that opinion as a widely accepted one.
Fisher doesn't have to get much of the ball to make an impact.
Can see his point...if you want to win games then you would probably play the likes of Graham, Palmer ahead of them, but if you want to get games into two
very promising kids then you sacrifice the wins...I like both these kids especially Fisher and am happy to play them as long as they are not being knocked about.
Can see his point...if you want to win games then you would probably play the likes of Graham, Palmer ahead of them, but if you want to get games into two
very promising kids then you sacrifice the wins...I like both these kids especially Fisher and am happy to play them as long as they are not being knocked about.
See i think the opposite.
We are a pressure side. We don't have the skills to cover players. We need 22 blokes out there delivering manic pressure 100% of the time.
Graham and Palmer can get the ball (and turn it over) but i think they lack the kind of pressure required to play in the Carlton side at present.
I'd much rather have Daisy, White, Fisher, SPS, Jones, Silvagni types who are all limited in one way or another, be that skill or experience, but all give 100%.
REWARD EFFORT.
Agree on the pressure. If you have one weak link in the chain it's easy for others to drop their head.
After 15 Games
2016
Goals 155 Behinds 137-1067 (points against 1366)
Percentage 78.1%
2017(Target 224-224-1568)
Goals 161 Behinds 133-1099 (points against 1329 )
Percentage 82.7 %
Goalkickers (Target 2016- Wright 22)
Casboult 23
Wright 20
Silvagni 15
Gibbs 13
-Percentage is starting to creep ahead of last years.
After 15 Games
2016
Goals 155 Behinds 137-1067 (points against 1366)
Percentage 78.1%
2017(Target 224-224-1568)
Goals 161 Behinds 133-1099 (points against 1329 )
Percentage 82.7 %
Goalkickers (Target 2016- Wright 22)
Casboult 23
Wright 20
Silvagni 15
Gibbs 13
-Percentage is starting to creep ahead of last years.
It should continue to do so. This time last year we went 1-10 in the back half of the season.
Although we are (finally) started to get some back luck with injuries, i don't expect them to have the same impact as last year.
Officially our longest ever streak of NOT scoring 100 points in a game.
27 matches in a row and counting...
Can we admit we have a problem yet?
Just heard that to, sad stuff, need some forward structure please
Officially our longest ever streak of NOT scoring 100 points in a game.
27 matches in a row and counting...
Can we admit we have a problem yet?
We have a problem with our midfield, even with a winning ruck we cant generate enough forward entries....dont have the list to play a high possession game either, too many poor decision makers
with poor execution skills...yes you are right when it does get forward we dont have the artillery to kick a winning score, only Wright could be classed as a reliable accurate kick and you could include Charlie Curnow as improving in that area but thats about it. Casboult is a good resting second ruck/forward but not a genuine KP Forward who can be relied upon....
Time to give Harry a run towards the end of the season, me thinks, though not sure he really deserves it based upon form. But an opportunity to blood him a little for next season. Unfortunately not sure there is much else goal wise we can do ?
We have a problem with our midfield, even with a winning ruck we cant generate enough forward entries....dont have the list to play a high possession game either, too many poor decision makers
with poor execution skills...yes you are right when it does get forward we dont have the artillery to kick a winning score, only Wright could be classed as a reliable accurate kick and you could include Charlie Curnow as improving in that area but thats about it. Casboult is a good resting second ruck/forward but not a genuine KP Forward who can be relied upon....
This is it, in perfect summation. Although I like the bolded bit best.
Officially our longest ever streak of NOT scoring 100 points in a game.
27 matches in a row and counting...
Can we admit we have a problem yet?
Pathetic.
Not surprised to hear that stat.
Can't say it matters really.
There is maybe two teams a week that score over 100 points.
No easy beats any more either.
We have a problem with our midfield, even with a winning ruck we cant generate enough forward entries....dont have the list to play a high possession game either, too many poor decision makers
with poor execution skills...yes you are right when it does get forward we dont have the artillery to kick a winning score, only Wright could be classed as a reliable accurate kick and you could include Charlie Curnow as improving in that area but thats about it. Casboult is a good resting second ruck/forward but not a genuine KP Forward who can be relied upon....
This is a bit of a misconception.
We are not as bad as it appears when you break it down game by game.
5 times this year we have won the inside 50 count.
Bombers (by 22)
Dees (2)
Dees (3)
Suns (10)
Swans (4)
3 times we have lost it by 4 or under
Suns (-2)
Pies (-4)
Crows (-2)
7 times we have lost it by 5 or more
Tigers (-13)
Tigers (-21)
Port (-33)
Saints (-22)
GWS (-14)
Kangaroos (-9)
Dockers (-8)
Wins
Losses by under 3 goals
Losses by over 3 goals
But these numbers are purely quantitative, what about the quality of the entry?
Officially our longest ever streak of NOT scoring 100 points in a game.
27 matches in a row and counting...
Can we admit we have a problem yet?
We are Carlton, We don't rebuild!
This is a bit of a misconception.
We are not as bad as it appears when you break it down game by game.
5 times this year we have won the inside 50 count.
Bombers (by 22)
Dees (2)
Dees (3)
Suns (10)
Swans (4)
3 times we have lost it by 4 or under
Suns (-2)
Pies (-4)
Crows (-2)
7 times we have lost it by 5 or more
Tigers (-13)
Tigers (-21)
Port (-33)
Saints (-22)
GWS (-14)
Kangaroos (-9)
Dockers (-8)
Wins
Losses by under 3 goals
Losses by over 3 goals
Inside 50's we are second last
Clearances we are second last
Contested ball wins we are 11th
Disposal efficiency 14th
Our midfield is overrated, we struggle at the clearances and even when we do get the ball we are very ordinary with it, contested footy is another poor figure and while I accept the I50's can be be looked at game by game and made to look better if you look at the stats overall its not conducive to kicking goals or giving our forwards many decent opportunities..
Disposal efficiency is very poor given we all know the amount of keepings off we play and chipping the ball around.....
The midfield needs a lot of work IMO.....havent got Kruezers stats but I would say our clearances are probably inflated by his stats which makes our genuine mids efforts even worse..
The midfield needs a lot of work IMO.....havent got Kruezers stats but I would say our clearances are probably inflated by his stats which makes our genuine mids efforts even worse..
61 clearances and 42 inside 50s for Kreuzer in 2017 according to Footywire
After 16 Games
2016
Goals 166 Behinds 146-1142 (points against- 1448)
Percentage 78.9%
2017(Target 224-224-1568)
Goals 170 Behinds 141-1161 (points against- 1411)
Percentage 82.3 %
Goalkickers after 16 games (Target 2016- Wright 22)
2017
Casboult 24
Wright 23
Silvagni 15
Gibbs 14
Curnow 12
2016-Final figures after 22 rounds
Matthew Wright-22
Bryce Gibbs-18
Levi Casboult-18
Andrejs Everitt-17
Dennis Armfield-16
But these numbers are purely quantitative, what about the quality of the entry?
You are asking a different question.
He stated we don't get the ball inside 50 enough. I showed otherwise.
Our top 5 goal kickers are now 3 goals behind the top five of last year (assuming that the last year comparative is the whole year - Lods, can you confirm).
We have both a better attack (19pts) and defence (37pts) than this time last year. 9 goals better over 15 rounds isn't much.
Now that we are hit by injuries, it will be interesting to see if we fall away, like we did last year.
The ability we have to butcher the ball (not skill errors - not sure if our players actually have the skills) particularly into the forward line or is amazing. I hope our delivery improves. I can forgive the defenders making some bad errors, because they seem to be consistently under high pressure with a heavy workload, thanks to some of the tripe that happens up the ground.
Those goalkicking totals for 2016 are final figures. (22 rounds)
2017 are totals after 16 games
(I've added that clarification now)
Wright was our leading goalkicker last year with 22
Casboult and Wright have already gone past that total
Inside 50's we are second last
Clearances we are second last
Contested ball wins we are 11th
Disposal efficiency 14th
Our midfield is overrated, we struggle at the clearances and even when we do get the ball we are very ordinary with it, contested footy is another poor figure and while I accept the I50's can be be looked at game by game and made to look better if you look at the stats overall its not conducive to kicking goals or giving our forwards many decent opportunities..
Disposal efficiency is very poor given we all know the amount of keepings off we play and chipping the ball around.....
The midfield needs a lot of work IMO.....havent got Kruezers stats but I would say our clearances are probably inflated by his stats which makes our genuine mids efforts even worse..
I'm not saying our midfield doesn't need help.
Its a chicken and egg type thing though.
Do we play the type of game we do, keepings off, because...
- we don't have the talent/nous in our forwardline to make position, and trap the ball in, so its swept away easily.
- we don't have the talent/nous in the midfield to deliver to our forward efficiency.
I'm also not so fussed on contested ball numbers because of the type of game we play. That stat would be better used in a game by game comparison also.
Stats for teams vary based on game plan. Ranked against the other 17 teams will show a trend, but ranking against opponent tells a more complete story.For example, i haven't looked up the stats, but i'd suggest that Swans would be right up their in stoppage clearances despite having a poor start to the year, and missing Josh Kennedy for a few games. Reason...the style of play they play and the ground they play on. Leads to more congestion, stoppages and thus clearances.
In years past, Geelong willingly gave up clearances by putting extra blokes behind the ball and swooping on the quick kick from them. Not sure if that is still the case though.
Here is another stat for ya.
Same deal as above but expanded further.
On average, for the year we have a shot on goal (not including OOB) 44% of the time we get an inside 50.
Our opponent, has a shot on goal 46% of the time.
So in 100 entries inside 50, our opponent averages 2 more shots on goal compared to us. Now it could be argued that in that we'd kick the ball out on the full 2 more times out of a 100 than our opposition does.
Point being, with the amount of inside 50's we get, and the amount of shots on goal that generates. We are basically on a par with our opposition.
I50's mainly mean you have the ball roughly where you want it. It's not always the case that this automatically translates to a goal scoring opportunity, nor is it always the case that players are in optimum field position simply because the ball is inside 50.
If you check out AFL tables, and use I50's as the ranking method you will see that Collingwood (for example) is 4th for i50's.
@Paul....what is your point?
I've just got through explaining how stats can show a style of gameplan and (in this style at least) are best suiting to 'vs opponent' comparisons.
Your collingwood example is great. But they could lose the inside 50 count every week.
So should it be celebrated that they are 4th?
It is actually possible that a team who is last in inside 50's actually wins the inside 50 count every week too. ;)
@Paul....what is your point?
I've just got through explaining how stats can show a style of gameplan and (in this style at least) are best suiting to 'vs opponent' comparisons.
Your collingwood example is great. But they could lose the inside 50 count every week.
So should it be celebrated that they are 4th?
It is actually possible that a team who is last in inside 50's actually wins the inside 50 count every week too. ;)
The point I was making is that the I50 stat is more misleading than most, and requires a context more than most.
When you have forwards that struggle to keep the ball in F50 and apply defensive pressure, the ball comes out far too easily. In combination with this, we have a team that plays Bolton's bus, which means they are often struggling to make good field position to apply pressure, because they're too far down field, which doesn't help our forwards.
@Paul....what is your point?
I've just got through explaining how stats can show a style of gameplan and (in this style at least) are best suiting to 'vs opponent' comparisons.
Your collingwood example is great. But they could lose the inside 50 count every week.
So should it be celebrated that they are 4th?
It is actually possible that a team who is last in inside 50's actually wins the inside 50 count every week too. ;)
You wont win many games being last or close to last for Inside 50's and the same with clearances, add poor disposal efficiency(14th) ..good luck
being a forward in Navy Blue on that set of numbers...couple that with poor conversion(Matt Wright excepted) when we do get the ball down forward and its
tough to win. The game plan of defensively strangling the opposition and hoping to kick rebound goals is great in a learning phase when you are teaching basics and defensive techniques but obviously cant be retained long term.
You wont win many games being last or close to last for Inside 50's and the same with clearances, add poor disposal efficiency(14th) ..good luck
being a forward in Navy Blue on that set of numbers...couple that with poor conversion(Matt Wright excepted) when we do get the ball down forward and its
tough to win. The game plan of defensively strangling the opposition and hoping to kick rebound goals is great in a learning phase when you are teaching basics and defensive techniques but obviously cant be retained long term.
Its not that simple. Compare on a game by game comparison.
In 2014 Melbourne scored 1336 points for the year, in 2015 they scored 1573 points for the year, last year they scored 1944 points and this year they are on track to exceed this total. we are not scoring enough. We need to score one goal a quarter more and not have any blowiouts like the Port Adelaide game and we will be in the eight. It gets back to what Bolton was saying last year, "think Bamboo".
In 2014 Melbourne scored 1336 points for the year, in 2015 they scored 1573 points for the year, last year they scored 1944 points and this year they are on track to exceed this total. we are not scoring enough. We need to score one goal a quarter more and not have any blowiouts like the Port Adelaide game and we will be in the eight. It gets back to what Bolton was saying last year, "think Bamboo".
When we draft a Jesse Hogan type, we might very well start scoring these numbers.
Melbourne have a few advantages over us, and one is that they were so poor for so long, that they got a bit of a leg up from the AFL, AND had a whole raft of players that were high draft picks that started coming good.
The situations are not 100% comparable IMHO.
Thryleon, I am not saying the situation at Melbourne is the same as Carlton's current situation, however, I was just showing a different recent case that could provide some insight to Carlton's woes, rather than simply regurgitating gloom and doom. Additionally, we have Harry Mckay & Patrick Kerr coming thru and we have Charlie Curnow showing some very good signs. Maybe we should be looking at the potential of the future and not the past.
When we draft a Jesse Hogan type, we might very well start scoring these numbers.
Melbourne have a few advantages over us, and one is that they were so poor for so long, that they got a bit of a leg up from the AFL, AND had a whole raft of players that were high draft picks that started coming good.
The situations are not 100% comparable IMHO.
Nothing to do with A Jesse Hogan type....improve the midfield (and noting Gibbs and Murphy both have a tendency to not show up at times) and the scores will improve even organically.
Nothing to do with A Jesse Hogan type....improve the midfield (and noting Gibbs and Murphy both have a tendency to not show up at times) and the scores will improve even organically.
x2...more/and decent entries and we will kick more goals, need to fastrack Mckay and Kerr so we have some more marking targets...get your favourite WAFL player and mine in Ben Saunders to add
some readymade goalkicking ability and we might move up the ladder.
I'd also get Sam Baulderstone from Norwood and get a readymade ruckman to play in the NB's and provide backup if Kruezer goes down....sick of the NB;s kids having to put up with a banana like Gorringe or a kid like Bolger doing the rucking...Korchek aint cutting it and needs to be cut.
SANFL's Baulderstone is the best ruckman outside the AFL IMO...26 knows his craft and has good skills, is a really nice kick of the ball.....would dominate the VFL and be a great backup player IMO....Philips is a good footballer but gets injured too often and we need some reliable backup to help our young mids develop..
I'd be a very happy camper if they get Saunders into the fold.....just looks like the type that will make a success of it....and provide plenty of highlights for the supporters!
https://thewest.com.au/sport/south-fremantle-forward-ben-saunders-wafl-mark-of-the-year-contender-ng-b88504737z (https://thewest.com.au/sport/south-fremantle-forward-ben-saunders-wafl-mark-of-the-year-contender-ng-b88504737z)
We probably need to find an experienced forward who can take the best defender whilst our younger guys develop, who is around?
Anyone we can offer a one or two year deal to who would attract good defenders?
Levi Casboult?
We probably need to find an experienced forward who can take the best defender whilst our younger guys develop, who is around?
Anyone we can offer a one or two year deal to who would attract good defenders?
Does he attract good defenders?....
Serious question... because it's actually not something I have given a lot of attention to.
Does Levi attract the best defender/ second best each week and what is their impact on the game as a result.
I have a feeling he moves around a bit too much.
He gets the best defender and they usually keep him to 1 goal. When our defenders keep the opposition key forward to 1 goal we will see posts here saying Jones or Rowe gave player X a bath.
Does Rance play on him when we play Richmond?
Does Rance play on him when we play Richmond?
Usually but he played on Weitering in round 1 because obviously he's more dangerous and Weitering beat him.
Does Rance play on him when we play Richmond?
Rance kept Weitering to 3 goals in Round 1. ;)
After 17 Games
2016
Goals 176 Behinds 154-1210 (points against- 1522)
Percentage 79.5%
2017(Target 224-224-1568)
Goals 181 Behinds 157-1243 (points against- 1523)
Percentage 81.6%
Goalkickers after 17 games (Target 2016- Wright 22)
2017
Casboult 25
Wright 25
Silvagni 15
Gibbs 14
Curnow 14
2016-Final figures after 22 rounds
Matthew Wright-22
Bryce Gibbs-18
Levi Casboult-18
Andrejs Everitt-17
Dennis Armfield-16
Strange stat for the week....After 17 games we've had just one point difference in our "Points against" totals from 2016 to 2017
After 18 Games
2016
Goals 183 Behinds 167-1265 (points against- 1596)
Percentage 79.3%
2017(Target 224-224-1568)
Goals 189 Behinds 167-1301 (points against- 1646)
Percentage 79%
Goalkickers after 17 games (Target 2016- Wright 22)
2017
Casboult 28
Wright 26
Silvagni 16
Curnow 15
Gibbs 14
2016-Final figures after 22 rounds
Matthew Wright-22
Bryce Gibbs-18
Levi Casboult-18
Andrejs Everitt-17
Dennis Armfield-16
Strange stat of the week...we've kicked exactly the same number of behinds as at the same stage last year...might need to kick a few more behinds before the season finishes ;D
Great work Lods.
Levi and Matty have made significant gains from 2016.
Fabulous to see young Jack and Charlie kick a few too.
I'd like to see our 'star' mids kicked 1 or 2 consistently, but alas....
It would certainly be a priority for mine, whilst we develop tomorrow's forwards.
After 19 Games
2016
Goals 190 Behinds 176-1316 (points against- 1718)
Percentage 76.6%
2017(Target 224-224-1568)
Goals 200 Behinds 177-1377 (points against- 1730)
Percentage 79.6%
Goalkickers after 17 games (Target 2016- Wright 22)
2017
Casboult 29
Wright 29
Silvagni 17
Curnow 16
Gibbs 15
2016-Final figures after 22 rounds
Matthew Wright-22
Bryce Gibbs-18
Levi Casboult-18
Andrejs Everitt-17
Dennis Armfield-16
Not much change this week…we gained a bit of percentage on last year’s result at the same period. We topped 200 goals for the year ::) and Wright joined Casboult at the top of the goal-kicking
After 19 Games
2016
Goals 190 Behinds 176-1316 (points against- 1718)
Percentage 76.6%
2017(Target 224-224-1568)
Goals 200 Behinds 177-1377 (points against- 1730)
Percentage 79.6%
Goalkickers after 17 games (Target 2016- Wright 22)
2017
Casboult 29
Wright 29
Silvagni 17
Curnow 16
Gibbs 15
2016-Final figures after 22 rounds
Matthew Wright-22
Bryce Gibbs-18
Levi Casboult-18
Andrejs Everitt-17
Dennis Armfield-16
Not much change this week…we gained a bit of percentage on last year’s result at the same period. We topped 200 goals for the year ::) and Wright joined Casboult at the top of the goal-kicking
Its a fair effort from Wright and I remain confused why we only offered him 12 months extension..unless he was happy with that, we keep offering unders to players and I would hate to lose Wright given our goalkicking woes...
Its a fair effort from Wright and I remain confused why we only offered him 12 months extension..unless he was happy with that, we keep offering unders to players and I would hate to lose Wright given our goalkicking woes...
It is a good effort.
By the end of the season he should have improved his goal scoring from 1.0 a game in 2016 to around 1.5 a game in 2017.
That achieved in the worst forward line in the league.
It is a good effort.
By the end of the season he should have improved his goal scoring from 1.0 a game in 2016 to around 1.5 a game in 2017.
That achieved in the worst forward line in the league.
Also we have to factor in he now plays as a part time onballer as well, when you go to games you also see Wright directing traffic especially down forward..
After 19 Games
2016
Goals 190 Behinds 176-1316 (points against- 1718)
Percentage 76.6%
2017(Target 224-224-1568)
Goals 200 Behinds 177-1377 (points against- 1730)
Percentage 79.6%
Goalkickers after 17 games (Target 2016- Wright 22)
2017
Casboult 29
Wright 29
Silvagni 17
Curnow 16
Gibbs 15
2016-Final figures after 22 rounds
Matthew Wright-22
Bryce Gibbs-18
Levi Casboult-18
Andrejs Everitt-17
Dennis Armfield-16
Not much change this week…we gained a bit of percentage on last year’s result at the same period. We topped 200 goals for the year ::) and Wright joined Casboult at the top of the goal-kicking
Very possible next year we only have wright remaining from our top 5 goal scores from 2016. :-\
Don't be a leading goalkicker at Carlton, your stay at the club is short..haha.
Do we have a point tracker?
After 20 Games
2016
Goals 203 Behinds 193-1411 (points against- 1817)
Percentage 77.7%
2017(Target 224-224-1568)
Goals 212 Behinds 188-1460 (points against- 1830)
Percentage 79.8%
Goalkickers after 20 games (Target 2016- Wright 22)
2017
Casboult 31
Wright 29
Silvagni 19
Curnow 17
Gibbs 16
2016-Final figures after 22 rounds
Matthew Wright-22
Bryce Gibbs-18
Levi Casboult-18
Andrejs Everitt-17
Dennis Armfield-16
Silvagni needs 3 more in the last two games and we'll have 3 players equal or exceed last years top goalkicker.
It wasn't a huge target but it's a bit of progress.
Thanks for your efforts in doing this lods.
It's all very meh. Slight increase in points for, slight increase in points conceded, slight increase in percentage. I suppose if your footy senses are calibrated to react to the slightest millimetric oscillations, you might be doing cartwheels right about now.
After 20 Games
2016
Goals 203 Behinds 193-1411 (points against- 1817)
Percentage 77.7%
2017(Target 224-224-1568)
Goals 212 Behinds 188-1460 (points against- 1830)
Percentage 79.8%
Goalkickers after 20 games (Target 2016- Wright 22)
2017
Casboult 31
Wright 29
Silvagni 19
Curnow 17
Gibbs 16
2016-Final figures after 22 rounds
Matthew Wright-22
Bryce Gibbs-18
Levi Casboult-18
Andrejs Everitt-17
Dennis Armfield-16
Silvagni needs 3 more in the last two games and we'll have 3 players equal or exceed last years top goalkicker.
It wasn't a huge target but it's a bit of progress.
And not to forget Curnow junior has kicked 12 in the last 9 games. So he'll be there next year too....comfortably.
Thanks for your efforts in doing this lods.
It's all very meh. Slight increase in points for, slight increase in points conceded, slight increase in percentage. I suppose if your footy senses are calibrated to react to the slightest millimetric oscillations, you might be doing cartwheels right about now.
There have been times through the year whether I've wondered whether it was worth the effort but once having started I thought I'd see it through to the end.
I don't think there's a great deal we can take from it but there are a few positives.
Statistically we may not have appeared to have made major advances but the fact we've stayed a bit ahead of last year in goals, goalkickers and percentage despite dropping down the ladder a bit kind of balances that fall a bit.
There have been times through the year whether I've wondered whether it was worth the effort but once having started I thought I'd see it through to the end.
I don't think there's a great deal we can take from it but there are a few positives.
Statistically we may not have appeared to have made major advances but the fact we've stayed a bit ahead of last year in goals, goalkickers and percentage despite dropping down the ladder a bit kind of balances that fall a bit.
Yes, they're fair points lods.
Only 2 weeks to go, and then you're done.
I concur with you Lods particularly as the draw isn't the same as last year.
Having said that it is sort of interesting matching some of the current rhetoric against last year. I don't think any one on gut feel would say that our scoring has improved more than our scores against.
Thanks for doing this...
There have been times through the year whether I've wondered whether it was worth the effort but once having started I thought I'd see it through to the end.
I don't think there's a great deal we can take from it but there are a few positives.
Statistically we may not have appeared to have made major advances but the fact we've stayed a bit ahead of last year in goals, goalkickers and percentage despite dropping down the ladder a bit kind of balances that fall a bit.
Biggest difference is that 2 of our top 4 goal kickers are 19... and Samo is 7th which is a good sign.
Our inside 50s are down this year from 50.8 per game to 46. Disappointing.
Though we're generally much younger all over the ground this year so maybe I should expect more dropoffs this year.
Somehow feels like we've overachieved this year though. Given half the team is <21 most weeks.
There have been times through the year whether I've wondered whether it was worth the effort but once having started I thought I'd see it through to the end.
I don't think there's a great deal we can take from it but there are a few positives.
Statistically we may not have appeared to have made major advances but the fact we've stayed a bit ahead of last year in goals, goalkickers and percentage despite dropping down the ladder a bit kind of balances that fall a bit.
Lods I really appreciate your efforts, I have been looking at them every week. Thanks for doing this for the whole year.
There have been times through the year whether I've wondered whether it was worth the effort but once having started I thought I'd see it through to the end.
I don't think there's a great deal we can take from it but there are a few positives.
Statistically we may not have appeared to have made major advances but the fact we've stayed a bit ahead of last year in goals, goalkickers and percentage despite dropping down the ladder a bit kind of balances that fall a bit.
It was definitely worth the effort; thanks very much!
The results are quite interesting, particularly in the context of doom and gloom merchants claiming that we had no-one to kick goals. Of course we have a long way to go but there are promising signs, particularly with our young lads starting to trouble the scorers quite regularly.
After 21 Games
2016
Goals 214 Behinds 205-1489 (points against- 1875)
Percentage 79.4%
2017(Target 224-224-1568)
Goals 224 Behinds 193-1537 (points against- 1900)
Percentage 80.9%
Goalkickers after 20 games (Target 2016- Wright 22)
2017
Casboult 33
Wright 30
Silvagni 19
Curnow 18
Gibbs 17
2016-Final figures after 22 rounds
Matthew Wright-22
Bryce Gibbs-18
Levi Casboult-18
Andrejs Everitt-17
Dennis Armfield-16
This week.
-We’ve managed to equal our 2016 goal total of 224 with one round to go
-Our top 5 goalkickers have all ‘bested’ the corresponding totals of the 2016 top 5
-We no longer have the ‘worst attack’ in the league…we’ve gone past Freo for ‘Points For’ ;D
Thanks for your work on this lods. 1 more week, and then it's "siddown time", as our indigenous brothers put it.
They're all signs of progress to me, albeit small signs. Happy with that.
Interesting that our goal spread is much thinner this year - top 5 have kicked 52.2% or our goals, against 40.6% last year and that our defence is worse! Overall we are currently 23 points better than last year...
Interesting that our goal spread is much thinner this year - top 5 have kicked 52.2% or our goals, against 40.6% last year and that our defence is worse! Overall we are currently 23 points better than last year...
The defence has leaked about 1 point per game more than last year. More of a drip than a leak.
We all know there is still huge amounts of work to be done, on all fronts.
Fremantle have really stunk it up over the back half of the year - since round 10 they have lost 3 times by 100 points plus, and scored 7 goals or less 5 times. They are embarrassingly bad and we are miles ahead of them right now with a much better list.
With our goal kicking the problem remains that our mids don't get forward enough and kick goals. Murphy, Cripps, Samo, Kruz , Daisy all look good at times, but have been very inconsistent in terms of hitting the scoreboard and they all average 0.5 goals per game.
Pickett, Lamb and Fisher have all hit the scoreboard over the last 2 weeks which makes a big difference to our offensive threat. Long may it continue.......
Stats are funny things.
I don't think you'd get a lot of argument that our 2017 team is better than our 2016 team but...
If you look at it in really simplistic terms you could say that the improvement in our goal tally from 2016 to 2017 is all down to Casboult being a bit more accurate ;D
The defence has leaked about 1 point per game more than last year. More of a drip than a leak.
We all know there is still huge amounts of work to be done, on all fronts.
and our attack has had a flood of an additional 2 pts per game, breaking it down like that.
I don't care - this is just observational fun, purely on the surface interest for me, particularly as we are seeing improvement in the team - just not really on the scoreboard (either way), yet. Next year, hopefully...
and our attack has had a flood of an additional 2 pts per game, breaking it down like that.
I don't care - this is just observational fun, purely on the surface interest for me, particularly as we are seeing improvement in the team - just not really on the scoreboard (either way), yet. Next year, hopefully...
Yes, no disagreement from me matey.
6 smashings last year by 10+ goals.
Only 2 this year (so far). To achieve that with a younger team is a real achievement.
6 smashings last year by 10+ goals.
Only 2 this year (so far). To achieve that with a younger team is a real achievement.
Yep. This is what I go on. 6 v 2 humiliating Monday's. That's progress in my book ;)
Yep. This is what I go on. 6 v 2 humiliating Monday's. That's progress in my book ;)
We should have won that game against Melbourne. If it wasn't for Cripps breaking his leg and White's knee we definitely would have. That win would have made the ledger look a little better also. Really happy with the improved handball / run we've started to implement lately also.
Looks a chance that our 4 main forwards may all hit 20+ . Won't see huge tallies from anyone in a sie that averages just 10.6 goals a games. It shows our forwards a at least making something from the limited scoring chances we have given we're a very defensive, low scoring side.
Hope now for a better spread of goalkickers as we become a little more of an attacking side in the future.
Laj, are those ideas based on subjective opinion or objective fact.
On Stats Carlton is;
- Top in kicks.
- Bottom in handballs.
- Bottom in disposals.
- 3rd in Marks
- 9th in Rebound 50.
- 17th in Inside 50.
- Middle on Overall Ratings.
That tells me we get the ball out of D50 very quickly with kicks, little run and carry, but cannot find a way of getting through the defensive zones. Sort of fits because we had more I50s than The Lions but generated less goals and less behinds. We offset that by having a very good defensive setup across the midfield which meant our R50s at 800 were way lower than the Lions 910.
To get that set of stats we must have been winning the ball in the midfield and then having very shallow entries. So I'd assert that means we need deeper F50 entries with better targets deep inside F50.
To get that set of stats we must have been winning the ball in the midfield and then having very shallow entries. So I'd assert that means we need deeper F50 entries with better targets deep inside F50.
My impression is that many of our F50 entries are shallow and often wide. Most of our kicks to the hot spot are from inside F50 and when our marking targets are covered. Deep F50 entries are rare and often not to our forwards' advantage. Charlie Curnow's great kick to Casboult on Saturday is a notable exception. Kicks like that are virtually impossible to defend.
Laj, are those ideas based on subjective opinion or objective fact.
On Stats Carlton is;
- Top in kicks.
- Bottom in handballs.
- Bottom in disposals.
- 3rd in Marks
- 9th in Rebound 50.
- 17th in Inside 50.
- Middle on Overall Ratings.
That tells me we get the ball out of D50 very quickly with kicks, little run and carry, but cannot find a way of getting through the defensive zones. Sort of fits because we had more I50s than The Lions but generated less goals and less behinds. We offset that by having a very good defensive setup across the midfield which meant our R50s at 800 were way lower than the Lions 910.
To get that set of stats we must have been winning the ball in the midfield and then having very shallow entries. So I'd assert that means we need deeper F50 entries with better targets deep inside F50.
One thing that seems to get overlooked in this whole debate is that yes, our inside 50's are low. Compared to our opposition though, we win our fair share of inside50 battles on any given day.
This says 2 things.
1. We like to play the chip around until we can get a decent inside 50. No point blazing away to our disadvantage just to get an inside 50 stat.
2. We are getting games played on our terms.
Laj, are those ideas based on subjective opinion or objective fact.
On Stats Carlton is;
- Top in kicks.
- Bottom in handballs.
- Bottom in disposals.
- 3rd in Marks
- 9th in Rebound 50.
- 17th in Inside 50.
- Middle on Overall Ratings.
That tells me we get the ball out of D50 very quickly with kicks, little run and carry, but cannot find a way of getting through the defensive zones. Sort of fits because we had more I50s than The Lions but generated less goals and less behinds. We offset that by having a very good defensive setup across the midfield which meant our R50s at 800 were way lower than the Lions 910.
To get that set of stats we must have been winning the ball in the midfield and then having very shallow entries. So I'd assert that means we need deeper F50 entries with better targets deep inside F50.
Was just a subjective opinion in my case.
Laj, are those ideas based on subjective opinion or objective fact.
On Stats Carlton is;
- Top in kicks.
- Bottom in handballs.
- Bottom in disposals.
- 3rd in Marks
- 9th in Rebound 50.
- 17th in Inside 50.
- Middle on Overall Ratings.
That tells me we get the ball out of D50 very quickly with kicks, little run and carry, but cannot find a way of getting through the defensive zones. Sort of fits because we had more I50s than The Lions but generated less goals and less behinds. We offset that by having a very good defensive setup across the midfield which meant our R50s at 800 were way lower than the Lions 910.
To get that set of stats we must have been winning the ball in the midfield and then having very shallow entries. So I'd assert that means we need deeper F50 entries with better targets deep inside F50.
Most of the time we play seven back and only five forward......easy to win the ball across half back but the downside is less options to hit up down forward.
You need to be very quick and precise rebounding the ball to setup scoring opportunities...we dont do that well at clearances either especially with Cripps out so that also limits our goalscoring opportunities.
My impression is that many of our F50 entries are shallow and often wide. Most of our kicks to the hot spot are from inside F50 and when our marking targets are covered. Deep F50 entries are rare and often not to our forwards' advantage. Charlie Curnow's great kick to Casboult on Saturday is a notable exception. Kicks like that are virtually impossible to defend.
We find every conceivable way to stuff up f50 entries.
There is this mental block. The players just can't cope. But I am serious when I say that it's mental. Guys can hit 15 targets in a row and then butcher a simple pass into f50. It's one reason why I hate our supporters blaming our forwards - they don't get any service.
You can remember the good inside 50s because there are so few.
Most of the time we play seven back and only five forward......easy to win the ball across half back but the downside is less options to hit up down forward.
You need to be very quick and precise rebounding the ball to setup scoring opportunities...we dont do that well at clearances either especially with Cripps out so that also limits our goalscoring opportunities.
I would have thought slow ball movement would help us advance up the field irrespective of how quickly we move the footy as we can push forward as a unit rather than just push the ball forward.
That slower game plan has many different mechanisms in it, but the main one is about finding space, and slowing the tempo so the game is played on our terms.
To Lods,
Thanks for this Goal Tracker. I have enjoyed reading it all seasons.
To Lods,
Thanks for this Goal Tracker. I have enjoyed reading it all seasons.
Thanks BM...It actually hasn't been that hard to update.
Interesting to look back at some of the goal predictions at the start of the thread :-[
After 22 Games
2016
Goals 224 Behinds 224-1568 (points against- 1978)
Percentage 79.3%
2017(Target 224-224-1568)
Goals 232 Behinds 202-1594 (points against- 2038)
Percentage 78.2%
Goalkickers after 20 games (Target 2016- Wright 22)
2017
Casboult 34
Wright 30
Curnow 20
Silvagni 19
Gibbs 17
2016-Final figures after 22 rounds
Matthew Wright-22
Bryce Gibbs-18
Levi Casboult-18
Andrejs Everitt-17
Dennis Armfield-16
Summary
The last game was a bit of a setback for 2017 and put a dent in a few figures….
Points for 2017v 2016 +26
Points Against 2017v 2016 +60
Perecentage 2017 v 2016 -1.1%
We scored more points in 2017 but we also conceded more than 2016.
Our top 5 goal kickers improved on the totals of the top 5 in 2016…but given we only scored 8 more goals that means there was a lesser contribution from the other players…Wright’s improved total of 8 in 2017 equated to the whole difference.
We slipped back below Fremantle in the final round for "Points For"
Thanks Lods :)
The pleasing aspect for me is that two of our top five goal scorers are second year players with a lot of improvement ahead of them.
We need to boost the totals of the top five, get more players above the 20 goal mark and get a greater spread of goal kickers. If we can manage that we will have addressed other deficiencies.
There is a chance we could lose both Casboult and Gibbs from that top 5.
You would hope McKay comes on for at least a 20+ total (hopefully more) but if we lose a few that's extra we have to make up.
To make finals we probably need about 280-290 goals in the regular season.
14 less scores in 2017. No idea how many rushed points are in this. This probably just bears out the other stats (eg i50)
Thanks for your work on this lods. Time to put the feet up for a while.
No need to start one next season. We'll be implementing phase 2 of Bolton's master plan, so we'll be aiming for 20 goals per match, just like Mark Williams in his PA coaching days.
There is a chance we could lose both Casboult and Gibbs from that top 5.
You would hope McKay comes on for at least a 20+ total (hopefully more) but if we lose a few that's extra we have to make up.
To make finals we probably need about 280-290 goals in the regular season.
Every year recently, we've lost players from this category :-[
Seriously need to get in and develop goalkicking. Which I realize means quality mids as much as fwds.
I think Levi's improvement has been solid and is a credit to him and coaching staff. Young Jack and Charlie, and Pickett too, show promise. I hope we can develop them without over relying on them.
We slipped back below Fremantle in the final round for "Points For"
...to be dead last.
The only team we were above last year was that half an essendon side.
Not rocket science. If you have the worst forwardline in the league, and don't do anything to address it in the off-season, you are going to have the worst forwardline in the league again.
Can only hope we've learned our lesson in the upcoming off-season.
There is only so much we can expect from young Harry in 2018.
Curnowfides will come on further, but with or without Casboult, that is still not enough.
...to be dead last.
The only team we were above last year was that half an essendon side.
Not rocket science. If you have the worst forwardline in the league, and don't do anything to address it in the off-season, you are going to have the worst forwardline in the league again.
Can only hope we've learned our lesson in the upcoming off-season.
There is only so much we can expect from young Harry in 2018.
Curnowfides will come on further, but with or without Casboult, that is still not enough.
Yes - 18th in points for and 13th in points against. This speaks of a specific mindset / approach to footy, and a lopsided list. I can't see how we can continue to play this way next season, irrespective of what additions we make or don't make to our forwards. Bolton has to try something. We simply can't expect to restrict every team to 60-70 points.
...to be dead last.
The only team we were above last year was that half an essendon side.
Not rocket science. If you have the worst forwardline in the league, and don't do anything to address it in the off-season, you are going to have the worst forwardline in the league again.
Can only hope we've learned our lesson in the upcoming off-season.
There is only so much we can expect from young Harry in 2018.
Curnowfides will come on further, but with or without Casboult, that is still not enough.
Wont fix the forward line this trade or draft period with instant fixes....there isnt any available, its going to be 2019 and messiah Tom Lynch descending from the summit..well the Gold Coast in his case.
With the midfield and Forward line both needing work its probably the midfield that is the priority and this upcoming draft has little in the way of KP Forwards so you will be looking at State Leagues if you want
any Forward fixes and hoping you can snag the next Ben Brown and maybe a Ben Saunders who can give you something to aim at...
Wont fix the forward line this trade or draft period with instant fixes....there isnt any available, its going to be 2019 and messiah Tom Lynch descending from the summit..well the Gold Coast in his case.
With the midfield and Forward line both needing work its probably the midfield that is the priority and this upcoming draft has little in the way of KP Forwards so you will be looking at State Leagues if you want
any Forward fixes and hoping you can snag the next Ben Brown and maybe a Ben Saunders who can give you something to aim at...
I dont necessarily want an instant fix, but ignoring it completely wont fix it.
Been saying that KPPs take longer and we need to draft them BEFORE we do mids so that they come on at the same time. Yet....donuts.
No doubt the list is still massively unbalanced at the moment and we are underweight KPF's, and medium sized goal kickers.
We have a plethora of small forwards [Pickett, Sumner, LeBois, Galluci, Fisher, Wright] but only one them has shown consistent goal scoring ability [Wright].
Our medium sized forward stocks are also very thin [SOJ, Lamb]. We then have 3 KPF's - Charlie, Kerr, McKay and 3 Forward/Ruck - Cas, Jaksch & Gorringe.
So that's 15 players in a squad of 44, which sounds about right. But in all likelihood 5 might go - Sumner, LeBois, Galluci, Jaksch & Gorringe. Given this, and the uncertainty around so many of the 10 remaining, you would think that we might need to recruit 7-8 forwards. Of these you would hope at least 2 have some level of AFL experience. It's still a huge turnover.
The sins of the 2010-2014 drafting disaster are really being felt now, and SOS still has a huge amount of work to do to establish a list that can actually challenge for the 8, and build an AFL quality forwardline.
No doubt the list is still massively unbalanced at the moment and we are underweight KPF's, and medium sized goal kickers.
We have a plethora of small forwards [Pickett, Sumner, LeBois, Galluci, Fisher, Wright] but only one them has shown consistent goal scoring ability [Wright].
Our medium sized forward stocks are also very thin [SOJ, Lamb]. We then have 3 KPF's - Charlie, Kerr, McKay and 3 Forward/Ruck - Cas, Jaksch & Gorringe.
So that's 15 players in a squad of 44, which sounds about right. But in all likelihood 5 might go - Sumner, LeBois, Galluci, Jaksch & Gorringe. Given this, and the uncertainty around so many of the 10 remaining, you would think that we might need to recruit 7-8 forwards. Of these you would hope at least 2 have some level of AFL experience. It's still a huge turnover.
The sins of the 2010-2014 drafting disaster are really being felt now, and SOS still has a huge amount of work to do to establish a list that can actually challenge for the 8, and build an AFL quality forwardline.
Agree with all of that...Fisher is a midfielder by trade as well...its slim pickings with what we have in terms of goalkickers......have the feeling the Weitering experiment will be back on next season
when all our tall defenders are back.
Agree with all of that...Fisher is a midfielder by trade as well...its slim pickings with what we have in terms of goalkickers......have the feeling the Weitering experiment will be back on next season
when all our tall defenders are back.
Think that could well happen EB. Not keen on it myself but depending on how things pan out we may not have too many other options.
ACoS forward?
ACoS forward?
Why not
Give Williamson, Marchbank, Plowman and Macreadie some games forward too... otherwise we'll have some really good defenders in the VFL
Why not
Give Williamson, Marchbank, Plowman and Macreadie some games forward too... otherwise we'll have some really good defenders in the VFL
Marchbank who is a strong mark I would try forward....Plowman and Macreadie are more traditional lock down types IMO ..
Williamson I would play on the wing and have him providing more forward entries with his nice kicking...a leftie on the wing is a must IMO..
I think Patrick Kerr has to be given games early next season...
Maybe now that Liam has seen what it takes against buddy he can have another look forward next year.