Kick it too.......who? Our Inside 50 top targets.

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Kick it too.......who? Our Inside 50 top targets.

May 23, 2024, 06:35:26 pm

https://www.afl.com.au/news/1135156/target-acquired-who-your-club-aims-for-inside-50
From the article....
Targets inside 50 for the year.
Carlton: Charlie Curnow (95), Harry McKay (84), Tom De Koning (21)

Looking at some other stats on our big 3 forwards...
Charlie - Harry - TDK
   29   -   24   -   7   -   Goals
   18   -   12   -   8   -   Behinds
   50   -   45   - 16 -   Shots on goal
   3   - 9 - 1 -   Complete misses
58% - 53% - 44% - Goal accuracy % (from total shots on goal, including misses)

   28   -   29   -   10 - Marks inside 50.

   49   -   43   - 73 - Targets leading to shots on goal (%)
   31   -   29   - 33 - Targets leading to goal (%)
   29   -   35   - 48 - Targets leading to marks inside 50 (%)

OK, so thats the facts. What does it all mean.

Lets make a couple observations
- Charlie is our best shot on goal. Harry has improved remarkably, but still misses completely more than he should, but even with those misses, is more likely than TDK to kick a goal once he has a shot.
- Despite being targetted less, we are more likely to get a shot at goal, an actual goal and a mark inside 50, when we target TDK. This should be common sense really. Everyone knows we go to Harry and Charlie the most, so they get the best defenders and they get the 3rd man in helping out as well. So, by default, TDK (and everyone else in the team) get lesser defenders and less attention paid to them.

So, my take home point is this.
SPREAD THE LOAD!
Our scoring will be better if we learn to target other players.

Stop directing the ball to Harry and Charlie constantly and try and use some other forwards more often.
We have been lacking a 3rd tall most of the year (remembering TDK playing #1 ruck first half of the year) and not having Jack Silvagni available....and not having Jack Martin available much either. I'd really like to see us target this area ASAP or shoehorn someone into this role ASAP - Kemp, McGovern, Marchbank is 1 too many '3rd talls' to play down back. Try one up forward??

If there is enough interest, i might do some comparisons of other forwards (teams?) and see how we compare.

Re: Kick it too.......who? Our Inside 50 top targets.

Reply #1 – May 23, 2024, 10:26:16 pm

It's not really feasible to make conclusions about the absence of presence of SoJ or Martin unless the same analysis is done when they were available, and in context the circumstance is not the same season to season, so I doubt it holds much relevance.

Interesting that our current Top 3 are last years Top 3, Owies 3rd again, yet fans want Owies dropped. The thing we are missing so far this season are the other medium small forwards in Motlop and Martin who were 4th and 5th in 2023. In 2024 Cottrell and TDK are 4th and 5th.

I'm not sure the accuracy stats mean much, Charlie has quite a few goals from Joe the Goose type scores roving the back of the pack, I've already discussed that in another thread. Both Harry and Charlie have missed goals from almost point blank, and from shots near the point of the 50m, so the mix of who gets shots where would be important. The media hysteria colours fan perceptions, but I can't say Charlie is much more reliable than Harry in the moment.

The complete miss itself isn't a value stat, because it records no context.

Re: Kick it too.......who? Our Inside 50 top targets.

Reply #2 – May 23, 2024, 11:48:10 pm

Krudds,

“ 49 - 43 - 73 - Targets leading to shots on goal (%)”

Is this the % of times these 3 are the target and we get a shot on goal as a result ?
If so, I’d read that as no one crumbing Charlie and H ‘cause they don’t drop many but they are roving to TDK because he seems to spill most of his chances ?

Re: Kick it too.......who? Our Inside 50 top targets.

Reply #3 – Today at 12:52:07 am

The problem with those simplistic analyses is that they don’t take into account goals that aren’t scored by Charlie, Harry or Tom but are the direct result of balls kicked to them, that is, the crumbing and scrambling goals scored after a marking contest.

In fact, Charlie has kicked quite a few goals after crumbing marking contests.

One thing that has struck me this season is how often we’ve targeted players other than Charlie, Harry and Tom inside 50. Owies with a total of 15 from both inside 50 targeted kicks and opportunistic goals is our third highest goal scorer.

Ahead of all is the cumulative total of 60 goals from kicks targeting Cripps, Cottrell, Kennedy, the Hollands brothers, Martin, Durdin, Fantasia, Hewett, Walsh, Acres, Cerra and Pittonet as well as goals arising from their crumbing and pressure applied to lock the ball inside 50.

We don’t need another forward 50 target. We need a small forward who can make the most balls targeting our key forwards that go to ground and who can force turnovers and stoppages inside our forward 50.

Re: Kick it too.......who? Our Inside 50 top targets.

Reply #4 – Today at 07:07:39 am

Defence has been our problem this year.

Re: Kick it too.......who? Our Inside 50 top targets.

Reply #5 – Today at 07:07:59 am

Quote from: DJC on Today at 12:52:07 am

The problem with those simplistic analyses is that they don’t take into account goals that aren’t scored by Charlie, Harry or Tom but are the direct result of balls kicked to them, that is, the crumbing and scrambling goals scored after a marking contest.

In fact, Charlie has kicked quite a few goals after crumbing marking contests.

One thing that has struck me this season is how often we’ve targeted players other than Charlie, Harry and Tom inside 50. Owies with a total of 15 from both inside 50 targeted kicks and opportunistic goals is our third highest goal scorer.

Ahead of all is the cumulative total of 60 goals from kicks targeting Cripps, Cottrell, Kennedy, the Hollands brothers, Martin, Durdin, Fantasia, Hewett, Walsh, Acres, Cerra and Pittonet as well as goals arising from their crumbing and pressure applied to lock the ball inside 50.

We don’t need another forward 50 target. We need a small forward who can make the most balls targeting our key forwards that go to ground and who can force turnovers and stoppages inside our forward 50.

we need fogarty back in and motlop is how i read this.

Re: Kick it too.......who? Our Inside 50 top targets.

Reply #6 – Today at 07:29:23 am

Only 3 teams kick more goals than us.
Only 4 teams concede more goals than us.

Sydney kick the most goals and concede the least.

Re: Kick it too.......who? Our Inside 50 top targets.

Reply #7 – Today at 07:57:05 am

Quote from: madbluboy on Today at 07:07:39 am

~~Defence~~ has been our problem this year.

Defending has been our problem this year but it's not our D50 group that are the cause.

I think even in the absence of Doc and Saad, the group including Weiters, McGovern, Newman, Boyd, Williams, Young, Cincotta, Cowan and Kemp have done OK.

Oddly, our problems in F50 are probably caused by the absence of Saad and Doc from our D50, and it gets compounded when Kemp or McGovern are out.

AFL is a game of opposites, if you are being scored against too easily, the problem is most likely a combination of Forwards and Mids, if you can't score the problem is most likely a mix of Halfbacks and Mids.

I think our biggest problem is that we've wasted periods of domination, quarters or halves where the opposition barely touched the footy yet we couldn't score. Not a single easy win despite kicking 5, 6 or 7 goals in a row, it's hurting us as the season grows longer. We let opponents back into the game too easily, when we should actually have our foot on the oppositions throat.