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Messages - thefutureisblue

1
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Brownlow Medal Thread 2019: Can Crippa get it?
Interesting stat.

Cripps has never polled a Brownlow vote against a team lower on the ladder.
All his votes (ignoring round 1) have come when playing a team higher on the ladder.

He is certainly a great leader.

btw... I predict that stat will end next year when we start winning more games than we lose :)
2
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Post Game Passion: AFL 2019 Rd 21: Carlton vs. Richmond
I remember seeing when it happened in game and my mind jumped to Ed Curnow's throat injury from 2017.
Can't recall what caused Jones' injury though. I'll have to check back over the replay.

13:30 to go in the 3rd quarter.

Difficult to see on the vision, but probably when Jones tackled Lambert. (unless he copped an elbow from Reiwoldt just before the tackle).
He actually got the clearance after the ball up despite the injury, and played out the game too.
The man is tough.... hope he recovers well.
4
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Post Game Passion: AFL 2019 Rd 20: Carlton vs. West Coast
If you get a chance, check out Liam Ryan punching SPS in the guts as the quarter time siren goes. SPS had already disposed of the ball when he gets blind-sided.

The little sniper disguised it well, but obvious what his intent was as you can see him look back the the damage he did.

... and this was not even mentioned in the MRP report.
5
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Post Game Passion: AFL 2019 Rd 20: Carlton vs. West Coast
Average age:
WC: 26.2
Blues: 24.3

Average games:
WC: 125
Blues: 74

WC were 2 years more mature, with 2 seasons more game experience.

Image that Carlton team playing themselves in 2 years time.
I'm confident we will be more than a 4 goal better team in 2 years.

(Gold Coast actually fielded a more experienced team than us on the weekend, and got thrashed by the 69 points.)
7
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pre-Game Thread: AFL 2019 Rd 13: Carlton vs Western Bulldogs
FWIW, I would have Murphy in ahead of Jack, but Jack still unlucky to be dropped. It's difficult to leave anyone out of last weeks side.

Looking at the upside, it's great to be in a position where we are saying that nobody should be dropped, and we have players in the VFL who are playing good footy but can't get a run (Kerr?, Goddard?).

Imagine what selection would be like with a clear injury list.
...and I think we would be a lot closer to the crows on the ladder if our injury counts were swapped.
8
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pre-Game Thread: AFL 2019 Rd 13: Carlton vs Western Bulldogs
I heard an interview with Goddard on the radio just after her was delisted from StK last year.
He just had an unlucky run with injuries over his 4 years there that meant he struggled to break into the team, despite some good form along the way.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-06-24/for-goddards-sake-why-isnt-this-saint-picked

I think he has the talent to be a solid defender, and is still young enough to improve on that.
I'd like to see him get a few games this year to test him out at AFL level.
9
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Winning isn't everything
I don't think anyone is going to be convinced by anyone else's arguments today.
We won't known for sure, if the rebuild is successful, until perhaps the end of 2022.

For me, the improvement we have made this season is a positive regardless of our current W/L record.

Putting it another way, which would you prefer?

(A) Our current performance this season;
OR
(B) 4 wins by 1pt (against Syd, GC, WB, NM) and 4 loses by 100pts (Rich, PA, Haw, Coll).

I'm picking (A).
10
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Winning isn't everything
Great post Tragic.

I decided to actually track how SOS used very limited currency on that 2015 list into what we have today.

Still on the list:
  • Marc Murphy
    Kade Simpson
    Matthew Kreuzer
    Patrick Cripps
    Liam Jones
    Sam Docherty
    Ed Curnow
    Dale Thomas
    Levi Casboult

All these players are still contributing to the current team when fit.

Retired/Delisted/Gone for nothing:
  • Andrew Walker
    Chris Judd
    Matthew Watson
    Robert Warnock
    Blaine Boekhorst
    Dillon Viojo-Rainbow
    Sam Rowe
    Kristian Jaksch
    Cameron Giles
    Nick Holman
    Jason Tutt
    Mark Whiley
    Clem Smith
    Jayden Foster
    Dennis Armfield
    Dylan Buckley
    Matthew Dick
    Nicholas Graham
    Andrejs Everitt
    Michael Jamison
    Simon White
    Andrew Carrazzo
    David Ellard

Lost some good players to retirement, and cleared a LOT of rubbish.
Probably the only one here that is still contributing at another team is Nick Holman.

Trades:
  • Troy Menzel, Lachlan Henderson > Phillips, Plowman, McKay
    Tom Bell > C.Curnow
    Chris Yarran > Cunningham
    Zach Tuohy > Polson, Marchbank, Pickett, Macreadie, Williamson, Kerr
    Bryce Gibbs > O'Brien, Schumacher, De Koning, McGovern

This is where it gets interesting.
I think SOS has done EXTREMELY well in converting just a few players with currency into some quality and depth coming back. The players we got where either from trading the picks we received, or using those picks in the draft.

I can't see anyone making a reasonable argument that SOS could have done any better in going from that 2015 list to now.
11
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Winning isn't everything
I simply don't understand why people are saying we should have more wins this season. What is this based on?

In EVERY game this season, we have been the underdogs based on match odds. This is despite very solid and competitive performances.
We currently have 1 MORE win than expected by the general public.

I know everyone wants to win every game, but objectively, haven't we actually overachieved so far this season?

Personally, I'd rather by in the position we are now, than teams like Essendon and Melbourne who are drastically underachieving.

So be frustrated, be disappointed, be passionate.
But also be realistic and honest when suggesting how many wins we SHOULD have.
12
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
I thought I'd dig up some stats from the last 10 seasons. These are examples of rapid rises up the ladder over 1 or 2 seasons.

14th > 2nd (1 season)
13 > 3 (1)
18 > 7 (1)
14 > 6 (1)
10 > 2 (1)
16 > 4 (2)
12 > 4 (1)
16 > 7 (2)
13 > 3 (1)
18 > 9 (2)
13 > 2 (2)
16 > 4 (1)
14 > 6 (1)

On average, 1 team will jump up 8+ ladder positions in a single season.
Who will it be this year?
13
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
I think the key difference is that if nothing happens with a regular contract, the contract will expire and the person would no longer be the coach. A new contract would need to be negotiated.

With Bolts, if nothing happens he will continue to be our coach indefinitely, maintaining the same conditions he has now.

Whilst it will never remove speculation about his position, it does remove the time pressure that all the others have as they reach the end of their contract period.
14
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: 2019 - Predictions (some fun)
At the end of the 2019 season you’ll find that:

Our ladder position is:   11th

Our leading goal kickers are (with number of goals):
1.   Charlie (42)
2.   Harry (39)
3.   Gov (29)

Leading the tackle count is:
1.   E Curnow
2.   Cripps   

Most marks:
1.   Doc 
2.   Charlie    

Surprise bolter/most improved is:  Williamson

Kid to emerge (fewer than 5 games at start of 2019): Setterfield

Best 2 first year players:
1.   Walsh
2.   Stocker

Best 2 with 23-50 (by seasons end) career games:
1.   Dow
2.   Harry

Our B&F winner/Best Brownlow prospect:    Cripps

The bloke I’d really love to see have a ripper season/really show his potential:  SPS