After an extremely successful trade period, it should be clear to everyone that we are now on a long journey to firstly rejuvenate our playing list and then go on to win No. 17.
With that in mind, here is how I see us performing over the next few years :
2016 : 17th - 18th
With a new coach and a lot of new players, we cannot expect a dramatic improvement in our ladder position especially as we don't have the full set of playing cards to work with. The game plan will be built around our patchwork quilt playing list so we can expect some bad losses score-wise. On the flipside, I'm expecting a more cohesive & committed effort from the team as the season progresses. Players will get to know each other better plus Bolton's message will seep in and the overall camaraderie will be forged.
2017 : 14th - 16th
Another season of retirements, trade deals and new kids via the draft will see our list transform even further. The new young players will have more games under their belt plus they will have physically & mentally developed even further.
2018 : 8th - 10th
Expecting a quantum leap up the ladder here as the playing list finally takes shape for the future. There'll be closer matches in 2017 with many a nail-biter on the cards, the players will now be disciplined and dedicated to fighting it out to the finish.
2019 : 6th - 8th
With three years of player development & experience plus some shrewd 'for need' trades, we should be forcing our way into the finals once again. I'm also expecting the new culture in the club to be fully ingrained and a powerful ingredient for all associated.
2020 : Top 4
Learning from our mistakes and with an even stronger hunger for success, this is the year we match it with the best in the league and earn the double-chance in the finals.
Those GWS guys will be on your Cracked list in no time Sheik.
next year is going to suck bigtime.
reckon we will be 2006 bad?
After an extremely successful trade period, it should be clear to everyone that we are now on a long journey to firstly rejuvenate our playing list and then go on to win No. 17.
With that in mind, here is how I see us performing over the next few years :
2016 : 17th - 18th
With a new coach and a lot of new players, we cannot expect a dramatic improvement in our ladder position especially as we don't have the full set of playing cards to work with. The game plan will be built around our patchwork quilt playing list so we can expect some bad losses score-wise. On the flipside, I'm expecting a more cohesive & committed effort from the team as the season progresses. Players will get to know each other better plus Bolton's message will seep in and the overall camaraderie will be forged.
Yep
Given the dramatic changes to the list I'm back-tracking a bit from previous statements regarding the need to see dramatic improvement in 2016
The list has been given a huge shakeup and I couldn't hazard a guess about the makeup of a round one team.
The players are going to take half a season to learn each others first names. ::) :D
Next year is all about coming together as a team.
What we need to see is more cohesion as the season progresses and some real signs of combination by years end.
Those GWS guys will be on your Cracked list in no time Sheik.
They'll be given the normal leeway that I give to all newbies. Liam Jones on the other hand ......... :P
next year is going to suck bigtime.
reckon we will be 2006 bad?
Cant see us winning a game next year tbh as much as that saddens me !
Cant see us winning a game next year tbh as much as that saddens me !
I think what we've ended up with is a big dose of unpredictability.
The group may struggle, but they may gel quicker than we expect.
I can't even pick a team at this stage so I certainly cant predict results.
What I do know is that it will be a different Carlton.
That's a bit exciting. ;) :D
As different as possible to last year please....
Yep
Given the dramatic changes to the list I'm back-tracking a bit from previous statements regarding the need to see dramatic improvement in 2016
The list has been given a huge shakeup and I couldn't hazard a guess about the makeup of a round one team.
The players are going to take half a season to learn each others first names. ::) :D
Next year is all about coming together as a team.
What we need to see is more cohesion as the season progresses and some real signs of combination by years end.
What we need to see is consistent effort. The rest will take care of itself.....eventually. ;)
They'll be given the normal leeway that I give to all newbies. Liam Jones on the other hand ......... :P
Liam Jones will be a decent defender. Bolton will make sure of that. I expect new kids in next years draft and maybe a trade or 2 for a couple more picks. Maybe a player and a 3rd round pick for a second rounder, considering the list will run deeper. 2018 will be a chance to load up on a couple of FA's. Once we have shown improved efforts once the next 2 seasons, we will be a side players want to play for. I expect SOS and Bolton to speak to many players from other clubs to get into their ears.
2016: 16-18th
2017: 10-12th
2019: 7-8th
2020: Top 4, with our 17th flag.
Cant see us winning a game next year tbh as much as that saddens me !
They'll have to give us a Priority Pick then hey?? ;)
I would be very surprised if we finish lower than 14th next season.
Yes, we have shed a few players but none of them really made a contribution in 2015. We have replaced them with some fringe players who are hungry and well known by SOS. I'd back them in to perform better than the blokes who have left.
We need a bit of luck with our draft selections but we now have a coaching panel that understands the way footy is played and, hopefully, with the ability to get the best out of the list.
I'm with you, and we surely will have a better run with injuries, which makes a big difference to a shallow list
Bottom 4 and probably bottom 2 for me in 2016...the GWS kids are slaves there to keep paddling only and keep the boat going.....the quality kids we get from the draft are still kids....
If we think Weitering is going to be able to take Josh Kennedy, Cloke, Tex Walker etc in 2016 and win the day then some are going to be very frustrated....
2-3 hard years ahead then no bottom 4 for ten years.....
Major problem next year will be goalkickers.......
next year is going to suck bigtime.
reckon we will be 2006 bad?
I think some of you have forgotten already how bad this year was, Henderson was crap apart from when we player St Kilda, Yarran was injured, suspended, demoted or sooking it up, Menzel was injured, demoted and gasping for breath and Bell who was good for him still would have to make some of the biggest bonehead decisions on a football field.
This season we get back Gibbs, Thomas who missed pretty much all year Kruezer for a pre season, Murphy who misses the last month, we still have Everitt and Casboult with Walker as forwards options. There should be natural improvement in Cripps, Graham, Jacksh, Docherty, Buckley. We pick up a gun CHB prospect in Weitering, plus a great third tall option Plowman and a hard running midfielder in Kerridge plus two quick small forwards.
Will we get out of the bottom 4? Probably not. All we need to show is effort and a game plan that suits our team and build on that. I expect to win 6 games next season.
Always hard to say. After the 2005 spoon we started rebuilding in 2006. By 2008 we were highly competitive, after being a rabble under Pagan in 2007. By 2009 playing finals. Dogs went from $hit to stars in a year with a change of coach and a list refresh. Port went from $hit to stars under Hinkley too in a year. So one never knows.
Major problem next year will be goalkickers.......
McKay at pick 11 EB? Reads well, never seen him play. Thoughts on him anyone?
I'm with you, and we surely will have a better run with injuries, which makes a big difference to a shallow list
Having a freakishly good/lucky year next year might hurt us in a way if we lose draft position and people start to over-rate where we're at... like we always do. We need a second year at the trade table where maximum draft picks is the focus.
Trade out whoever we need to.
Having a freakishly good/lucky year next year might hurt us in a way if we lose draft position and people start to over-rate where we're at... like we always do. We need a second year at the trade table where maximum draft picks is the focus.
Trade out whoever we need to.
Absolutely right
Losing culture will hurt a young group. Win as many as we can
Next year will be one for further list regeneration. We'll certainly want to become a lot more competitive and develop our new team culture but at the same time we won't want to climb too high up the ladder.
McKay at pick 11 EB? Reads well, never seen him play. Thoughts on him anyone?
Harry McKay or Sam Weideman look great options as forwards and might be around at pick 11. I would be happy with either of these two.
We need so many of the young guys to improve next year just to make it to competitive.
If you're hoping for more than a couple of wins... brace yourself.
Always hard to say. After the 2005 spoon we started rebuilding in 2006. By 2008 we were highly competitive, after being a rabble under Pagan in 2007. By 2009 playing finals. Dogs went from $hit to stars in a year with a change of coach and a list refresh. Port went from $hit to stars under Hinkley too in a year. So one never knows.
You know what killed us.
In 2004 we went from 4 wins in 2003 to 10 wins in 2004
That 2004 draft had Roughead, Franklin and Lewis in it.
If we'd have been 15th or 16th with priority picks instead of 11th our history could have been completely different.
You know what killed us.
In 2004 we went from 4 wins in 2003 to 10 wins in 2004
That 2004 draft had Roughead, Franklin and Lewis in it.
If we'd have been 15th or 16th with priority picks instead of 11th our history could have been completely different.
With our recruiting we'd have taken Tambling too before Buddy...lol
We used all our picks on mature age rejects in 2004, worked for a years, meaning, yes, we did well with bigger bodies for a year, but was short term, hence we missed out on 2004 bounty. Then after the spoon we had to properly rebuild moving out all the mature age rejects.
Did get Murphy and Josh Kennedy in the 2005 draft though, which led to Judd.
Been saying that for years Lods!
How the hell did we win 10 games that year?
McKay at pick 11 EB? Reads well, never seen him play. Thoughts on him anyone?
Reads very well, and I'm very interested, a back up for Casboults role. Would need time to develop.
McKay at pick 11 EB? Reads well, never seen him play. Thoughts on him anyone?
I like him, ruckman size KP player who kicks the ball really well, plays in front, takes a good mark and is no bunny on the ground either...comparison player for me is Ben Griffiths from Richmond although
Mckay is better on the ground and a left footer...
Cons: can look slow, 2nd efforts....
Always hard to say. After the 2005 spoon we started rebuilding in 2006. By 2008 we were highly competitive, after being a rabble under Pagan in 2007. By 2009 playing finals.
Judd carried us during those years and it's no coincidence that our fall coincided when he started to decline and get injuries.
Roughly the same time MM came on board.
I like him, ruckman size KP player who kicks the ball really well, plays in front, takes a good mark and is no bunny on the ground either...comparison player for me is Ben Griffiths from Richmond although
Mckay is better on the ground and a left footer...
Cons: can look slow, 2nd efforts....
If next years draft is mid field rich and deep, would it be prudent to get KP players this year, as there seems to be many around our picks. Given that KP takes longer to develop as well, should be be getting Weitering, Collins and McKay with our first 3 and best available at 19?
Would a spine of Collins, Weitering, Cripps, Jacksch, McKay be something to build around? Add Plowman down back and Casboult/Kruezer in the forward pocket and we seem to have structure.
Plus they are all Vic boys, no go home factor.
I think get KPs in Weitering then best available. If two players are similar, get the KP, but if (for example as he won't be) Parrish was around and Curnow at our pick... I would be taking Parrish still.
KPs for me
we need an urgent replacement for jamison now
mids next year
we need an urgent replacement for jamison now
We surely have witches hats in the club somewhere.
We need to make sure the KPs are not jumping up 5-10 spots though because they are KPs it is too closely following the rule that we need a KP now, we can trade for them as well and they don't all need to be taken with our best picks.
I think we all know we need a spin, but don't waste a pick if we don't really rate the kid is all I am saying. We don't have to get all of our spine in one year. Weitering if going to be a great start.
If next years draft is mid field rich and deep, would it be prudent to get KP players this year, as there seems to be many around our picks. Given that KP takes longer to develop as well, should be be getting Weitering, Collins and McKay with our first 3 and best available at 19?
Would a spine of Collins, Weitering, Cripps, Jacksch, McKay be something to build around? Add Plowman down back and Casboult/Kruezer in the forward pocket and we seem to have structure.
Plus they are all Vic boys, no go home factor.
I really like the Collins, Weitering KP back setup....that would be my priority this draft....we also need another bigger mid urgently IMO and Oliver would be my man....I like Hibberd as my allrounder at pick 19 although some rightly so like Rioli at 19 as we do need another clever small forward even though we have Tutt, Boakhorst, and now Lamb, Sumner.
McKay wouldnt be a priority for me this season although if we missed Collins he would be my next choice in the KP 's....
Mitch Brown from Sandringham would be my backup in the PSD.....
Like your thinking with the go home factor.....Francis would be a good get but you know the Crows and Port will come after him and we always lose out ...
Those ones I listed MIO have been projected around our picks.
Yeap sorry Ray
Was more meaning how they are rated by the club, but in principle I think you are pretty well spot on, in that if they are rated there, yeah take the big guys.
We need so many of the young guys to improve next year just to make it to competitive.
If you're hoping for more than a couple of wins... brace yourself.
Wins are irrelevant in 2016, consistency of effort and competitiveness is what we are looking for.
Over time, as the players grow together, wins will come on the back of the hard work put in during next year and the one after.
Wins are irrelevant in 2016, consistency of effort and competitiveness is what we are looking for.
Over time, as the players grow together, wins will come on the back of the hard work put in during next year and the one after.
x2 Time to rebuild culture and standards from the ground up.
The future :
B : Buckley, TBA, TBA
HB : Plowman, Weitering, Docherty
C : Boekhorst, Murphy, TBA
HF : Jacksh, TBA, Kerridge
F : Sumner, TBA, TBA
R : Kreuzer, Cripps, Gibbs
I/C : TBA, Phillips, TBA, TBA
Smith, Whiley, Holman, Lamb, Graham are yet to fully show their stuff but should have genuine claims to a spot in the team over the coming years.
While wins in the immediate term could be described as "irrelevant" we do need to be capable of winning some games, of being fiercely competitive and of avoiding absolute floggings. We will need to see some reward for our efforts.
Constant losing without hope or reward can be very damaging and lead to the destruction of club morale as we have seen in recent years. Some of our players have no doubt been very bruised psychologically, in some cases to the point that they may never perform well again whilst at CFC. Rehabilitation will take time.
So, we tread a fine line into the future between rebuilding but being able, at the same time, to demonstrate positive progress and that will involve getting a few wins IMO.
The future :
B : Buckley, TBA, TBA
HB : Plowman, Weitering, Docherty
C : Boekhorst, Murphy, TBA
HF : Jacksh, TBA, Kerridge
F : Sumner, TBA, TBA
R : Kreuzer, Cripps, Gibbs
I/C : TBA, Phillips, TBA, TBA
Smith, Whiley, Holman, Lamb, Graham are yet to fully show their stuff but should have genuine claims to a spot in the team over the coming years.
No Levi Sheik?
The future :
B : Buckley, TBA, TBA
HB : Plowman, Weitering, Docherty
C : Boekhorst, Murphy, TBA
HF : Jacksh, TBA, Kerridge
F : Sumner, TBA, TBA
R : Kreuzer, Cripps, Gibbs
I/C : TBA, Phillips, TBA, TBA
Smith, Whiley, Holman, Lamb, Graham are yet to fully show their stuff but should have genuine claims to a spot in the team over the coming years.
Might be going a bit early on Sumner and Boekhorst given their innocuous start to their careers and I reckon Gibbs might be trade bait for some multiple picks sooner than later..Just my opinion...
No Levi Sheik?
Well it seems fair.
If Jaksch steps up as KPF and you have Kreuzer / Phillips doing the ruck / forward thing, with Plowman / Weitering defense. You cannot also have the likes of Casboult, Rowe and Jamison in the one side.
Something has got to give, but it's good to have pressure for spots! :D
While wins in the immediate term could be described as "irrelevant" we do need to be capable of winning some games, of being fiercely competitive and of avoiding absolute floggings. We will need to see some reward for our efforts.
Constant losing without hope or reward can be very damaging and lead to the destruction of club morale as we have seen in recent years. Some of our players have no doubt been very bruised psychologically, in some cases to the point that they may never perform well again whilst at CFC. Rehabilitation will take time.
So, we tread a fine line into the future between rebuilding but being able, at the same time, to demonstrate positive progress and that will involve getting a few wins IMO.
Agree cookie. The ideal future that people seem to think is almost a fait accompli if we really bottom out, may in fact never eventuate. Must be competitive from day 1.
Well it seems fair.
If Jaksch steps up as KPF and you have Kreuzer / Phillips doing the ruck / forward thing, with Plowman / Weitering defense. You cannot also have the likes of Casboult, Rowe and Jamison in the one side.
Something has got to give, but it's good to have pressure for spots! :D
[/quote
There is a factor called injuries.
also, Weitering will be a first year player. While I expect ( hope ) he will play plenty of senior footy in 2016, it may not all be as a KPP.
No Levi Sheik?
Just not sure about whether he will be a long-term fixture at the club.
Might be going a bit early on Sumner and Boekhorst given their innocuous start to their careers and I reckon Gibbs might be trade bait for some multiple picks sooner than later..Just my opinion...
Agreed, both of the young guys could flounder & fall and eventually feel the axe, no-one really knows what will happen with them, fingers crossed it is positive.
As for Gibbs, I have already predicted he will be part of a mega-deal next year.
Gibbs being a senior player but so far having demonstrated only limited leadership skills/aptitude will no doubt work against him at CFC, but may not necessarily be a problem at another club with an established leadership culture.
The AFL website was ranking all midfields in the comp. Found it pretty interesting to look how all the engine rooms in the AFL look stacked up against each other.
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-12-29/the-afls-best-midfields-in-2016-where-does-your-team-rank
No surprises with the top teams, but what I found interesting was that bar Sydney the top few teams all have the perfect setup in terms of attributes in their midfields. They all actually have legit protype gut busting wingers on the wings, not any random midfielder which the rest of the comp pretty much have. This might explain the issue with Sydney a little.
For e.g:
C: Isaac Smith, Sam Mitchell, Bradley Hill
Foll: Ben McEvoy, Luke Hodge, Jordan Lewis
Compared to us:
C: Kade Simpson, Patrick Cripps, Ed Curnow
Foll: Matthew Kreuzer, Bryce Gibbs, Marc Murphy
First of all Simpson will spend most of the year in a back pocket/flank and Curnow will tagging. Boekhorst is the logical 'winger' we have, with Cunningham the next best as a natural winger type if he is that. I'm assuming he is a pacy outside type from what I have read/heard.
This area is a bit of pet obsession of mine and feel it is always underrated. With a solid foundation to the midfield in Cripps we desperately need to add to this part in the next couple years. Would like to see Buckley step up on one of those wings, Graham to work alongside Cripps, Boekhorst on the other and Cunningham in the wings. No pun intended.
Looking past Murph and Gibbs as I am not sure they will be there for 17, we still need another bull to assist Cripps, another pacy gut busting runner and hopefully Graham keeps tracking along nicely.
You know our midfield will be good when we can afford to have Murphy and Gibbs out of there and not look any less convincing.
Ideally, Murphy would play on a wing, Gibbs a half forward flank playing onball in spurts but spending most of his time as a finisher as he is deadly on the run from about 50 out, and we would have a midfield setup that included a few boys who are good at getting it, and damaging with it in the engine room like Graham, Cripps and at least one more like Carrazzo who can shutdown an opponent and win the ball himself.
Hopefully we can play Thomas on a wing this season and we get value for him.
Too much wishfull thinking in there, odds are it wont happen.
Looking past Murph and Gibbs as I am not sure they will be there for 17, we still need another bull to assist Cripps, another pacy gut busting runner and hopefully Graham keeps tracking along nicely.
C Curnow is your man I reckon.
C Curnow is your man I reckon.
x2....losing Judd, Carrazzo and Bell has left us a bit short in the midfield size wise and while C. Curnow is being talked up as a forward
I reckon he will end up a onballer and be Cripps right hand man...
Imagine Curnow just explodes onto the scene next year and takes the comp apart! And all the other clubs that passed up on him rue their mistake, and we get lucky for once! It could happen.
Curnow will be doing what Everitt does, just better more vigorous .
Having said that, he's not quite ready to roll I think. Has a very unusual body shape.
Imagine Curnow just explodes onto the scene next year and takes the comp apart! And all the other clubs that passed up on him rue their mistake, and we get lucky for once! It could happen.
We didn't get lucky with Cripps? :o
We didn't get lucky with Cripps? :o
Well not so much because we targeted him from a few years back did we not? Cripps was just brilliant drafting. Curnow probably fell through to us because of the drink drive issue.
Well not so much because we targeted him from a few years back did we not? Cripps was just brilliant drafting. Curnow probably fell through to us because of the drink drive issue.
I'm pretty sure that we targeted Charlie too; the drink driving incident just meant we got him with a lower pick.
While there's talk of him being used in the midfield, he only had limited time there in the TAC Cup before getting injured. The club refers to him as a key forward and his strengths are his marking and tank and I reckon he'll be used as a lead up forward.
Ditto... Will be play forward with "shocktrooper" stints on ball like Roughead.
Ditto... Will be play forward with "shocktrooper" stints on ball like Roughead.
Not sure prof.
This guy has enormous running power and if you watch him train he loves to be on the move.
I reckon he'll be something like a Kouta/Fyfe.
I think BB will look at all options for him tbh and use him in multiple roles, at least as a lead up forward and in the midfield. I'm confident no stone will be left unturned in trying to maximise his benefit to us. The first half of this coming year will be interesting to see the game plan unfold and the search for the right players to fill the roles.
@ Thryleon
Agree regarding Gibbs, his ideal position has turned out to be a half forward flanker who moves into the midfield not the pure dominant midfielder we thought we were getting. But with Murph I never saw him as a natural winger, his size and shape don't really match the modern day prototype winger ala Smith, Hill or Ebert. Plus not sure if he has the tank of a Smith to cover a wing all day.
However I also think C Curnow could explode like some others have said and be that partner to Cripps in a couple years. I read somewhere where SOS was talking about each premiership team having one draft that really set them up. You can bank on Weitering but if Curnow was to explode then we could be close to a draft like that, not forgetting McKay, Cunningham and Silvagni. Maybe it's a new year hangover but I feel like there just could be something with this group of kids together.
Maybe it's a new year hangover but I feel like there just could be something with this group of kids together.
We all have this opinion because if we are totally honest, we have to pin our hopes on something right now.
I too believe we have drafted well this year but time will tell how well, however, the players we get this year via the draft (should pick-up at least three midfield guns) will go a long way towards how quickly we become a powerhouse again.
Another dumb ass ignorant 'expert' view. WTF would this joker know...
http://www.sportsfan.com.au/it-can-still-get-worse-for-blues-kennelly/tabid/91/newsid/188387/default.aspx?cid=SF_LOWDOWN_AFL_article_itcanstillgetworseforblueskennelly_130216 (http://www.sportsfan.com.au/it-can-still-get-worse-for-blues-kennelly/tabid/91/newsid/188387/default.aspx?cid=SF_LOWDOWN_AFL_article_itcanstillgetworseforblueskennelly_130216)
Another dumb ass ignorant 'expert' view. WTF would this joker know...
http://www.sportsfan.com.au/it-can-still-get-worse-for-blues-kennelly/tabid/91/newsid/188387/default.aspx?cid=SF_LOWDOWN_AFL_article_itcanstillgetworseforblueskennelly_130216 (http://www.sportsfan.com.au/it-can-still-get-worse-for-blues-kennelly/tabid/91/newsid/188387/default.aspx?cid=SF_LOWDOWN_AFL_article_itcanstillgetworseforblueskennelly_130216)
Too much Guinness, I think. Or maybe Jamesons.
I can understand why he thinks we'll be crap, but we had so little contribution from so many last year through injury and disinterest, that it won't take much at all to make us a LOT better. I am not expecting miracles, but we will win more games in 2016 than in 2015 (unless injuries curse us again - not impossible, but with a new medical team and fitness people not as likely as it has been).
Another dumb ass ignorant 'expert' view. WTF would this joker know...
http://www.sportsfan.com.au/it-can-still-get-worse-for-blues-kennelly/tabid/91/newsid/188387/default.aspx?cid=SF_LOWDOWN_AFL_article_itcanstillgetworseforblueskennelly_130216 (http://www.sportsfan.com.au/it-can-still-get-worse-for-blues-kennelly/tabid/91/newsid/188387/default.aspx?cid=SF_LOWDOWN_AFL_article_itcanstillgetworseforblueskennelly_130216)
SOS and Bolts may actually want this for obvious reasons.
Apart from the last few sentences (win-loss predictions don't mean much IMO), I think he makes some logical, and possibly obvious points. New coach, several new players, new NB's coach, new fitness / medical staff, leaders that are doing their best but not really geared for it, new this, new that, lots of youth etc.
I suspect that this line in Saturday's Age Kreuzer article is closer to the mark than Kennelly's idiosyncratic view:
In the year of their "reset", Carlton has been buoyed by the fine off-season form of Matthew Kreuzer, a key piece in the Blues' bid to prove to the football world they won't be as bad as many have tipped.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/afl-2016-blues-hope-humphrey-kreuzer-talks-through-his-actions-20160212-gmsibr.html#ixzz4034Ro0DY
The "club in a hurry" mantra wasn't adopted for nothing; we've improved our list, and we've got a coaching panel that understands modern footy and can get their message across to the players.
We'll finish in the middle six this season :)
I don't mind if we are seen as an underdog and out of the spotlight of high expectations. Better to come out of nowhere and shock a few people!
I don't mind if we are seen as an underdog and out of the spotlight of high expectations. Better to come out of nowhere and shock a few people!
Much better if we exceed expectations than fail to meet them.
Another dumb ass ignorant 'expert' view. WTF would this joker know...
http://www.sportsfan.com.au/it-can-still-get-worse-for-blues-kennelly/tabid/91/newsid/188387/default.aspx?cid=SF_LOWDOWN_AFL_article_itcanstillgetworseforblueskennelly_130216 (http://www.sportsfan.com.au/it-can-still-get-worse-for-blues-kennelly/tabid/91/newsid/188387/default.aspx?cid=SF_LOWDOWN_AFL_article_itcanstillgetworseforblueskennelly_130216)
The youth argument is interesting. We picked up the same number of youngsters as other teams, the GWS boys have been in the system for s while, we get back Thomas, Gibbs and primed Kruezer who are ready to rip. New faces, yes overloaded with 18 y o, no because we have recruited players to fill the breech while our current and future crop of youngsters develop.
Look at it this way, below is a team cobbled together out of the best (IMO) of the current list minus any newbies drafted at the end of last year (whether they are experienced players or 1st years)
The question then is, could this team move up the ladder significantly or otherwise just on the back of the the new coaching regime and a new game plan?
(http://i66.tinypic.com/25znj92.png)
Look at it this way, below is a team cobbled together out of the best (IMO) of the current list minus any newbies drafted at the end of last year (whether they are experienced players or 1st years)
The question then is, could this team move up the ladder significantly or otherwise just on the back of the the new coaching regime and a new game plan?
Definitely, provided Jaksch has improved his footy to the point where he is a genuine key forward.
It's not a top 8 line up but it would be competitive if the new coaching panel can get them to play to their potential and with an effective game plan.
Definitely, provided Jaksch has improved his footy to the point where he is a genuine key forward.
It's not a top 8 line up but it would be competitive if the new coaching panel can get them to play to their potential and with an effective game plan.
Sounds as if Jaksch has been training exclusively with the defensive unit this off season, doubt we'll see him up forward in 2016.
Sounds as if Jaksch has been training exclusively with the defensive unit this off season, doubt we'll see him up forward in 2016.
Yep work in progress and CHF is going to be Harry McKay IMO...Jacksh will play with Weitering in the KP roles when Jamison retiresbut for the next season or two will
learn the craft down back....
You're not holding out hope for Glass-McCasker EB? Great height, athletic ability and his best asset is to close down opponents, ideal for FB. Main down is his kicking but can be hidden a bit at FB, having Tuhoy, Docherty and Buckley all sweeping behind for a quick give.
I hope to have a Weitering/McCasker/Plowman trio of bigs down back. I also hope to have McKay/Jaksch/C.Curnow trio up forward. I don't see JK as a defender, he may be learning some stuff this season but ultimately he's a forward.
Sounds as if Jaksch has been training exclusively with the defensive unit this off season, doubt we'll see him up forward in 2016.
In that case, our 2015 list players are missing a key forward - unless Foster can step up.
McKay and Curnow's chances of breaking in to the side must be pretty good.
You're not holding out hope for Glass-McCasker EB? Great height, athletic ability and his best asset is to close down opponents, ideal for FB. Main down is his kicking but can be hidden a bit at FB, having Tuhoy, Docherty and Buckley all sweeping behind for a quick give.
I hope to have a Weitering/McCasker/Plowman trio of bigs down back. I also hope to have McKay/Jaksch/C.Curnow trio up forward. I don't see JK as a defender, he may be learning some stuff this season but ultimately he's a forward.
I dont have Plowman as a KP Gorilla defender...GWS were trialling him as an onballer and I see his future as further up the ground....my theory is Curnow will become a big onballer who rests forward rather than a specialist forward..I think SOSOS will take that Gunston type role.
Good lateral thinking on GlassMac Ray..forgot about him.. :- and yep he would have to figure in those down back plans for the future....the club will need to fastrack him onto the senior list to keep him as the WA clubs will be looking to entice him home and that might mean he gets some opportunities earlier than others...
Jaksch is one in particular I would like to see start to really emerge as a senior player this year, whether FWD or back. He cost us and was seen as a very important acquisition at the time, so it's equally important that he becomes a success story and we get value.
My gut feeling is that we'll finish bottom 4 this year.
There are (as I see it), three ways we can move up the ladder :
1. benefit from a team on the decline
2. benefit from a team having an off year (injuries, form etc.)
3. have a greater rate of improvement than other teams, so that we can in essence "leapfrog" them.
One problem with looking at our list only, is that one can easily overlook or forget the quality on other lists, and also overlook the changes, tweaks, improvements that occur at other clubs. All teams put a lot of time and effort during the off season into improving across the board. No real point in us improving 10% if everyone else is improving 20%.
So far as I can see, the Bombers are the only team that might be a "guaranteed" basket case this year.
Definitely, provided Jaksch has improved his footy to the point where he is a genuine key forward.
It's not a top 8 line up but it would be competitive if the new coaching panel can get them to play to their potential and with an effective game plan.
I didn't intend to be a structure, more about personnel and can it improve. Throw those names wherever they are best suited.
.
Wouldnt be so sure of this. That bunch of scum bags has managed to show enormous resilience in the face of great adversity over the last 3 years, I have envied that aspect of their journey and wish our blokes could do the same when their backs are agains the wall. I know 12 of their best players are out and they have assembled a cross between Dads Army and The Biggest Loser contestants however expect the unexpected with this bunch of prix.
I didn't intend to be a structure, more about personnel and can it improve. Throw those names wherever they are best suited.
I think it does show that we're a key forward short of being a competitive, middle of the ladder team if we have to rely on those who were on our list last season. The other side of the coin is that we are starting to develop some depth in defence.
[quote author=PaulP link=topic=2545.msg144337#msg144337 date=1455414762
So far as I can see, the Bombers are the only team that might be a "guaranteed" basket case this year.
Wouldnt be so sure of this. That bunch of scum bags has managed to show enormous resilience in the face of great adversity over the last 3 years, I have envied that aspect of their journey and wish our blokes could do the same when their backs are agains the wall. I know 12 of their best players are out and they have assembled a cross between Dads Army and The Biggest Loser contestants however expect the unexpected with this bunch of prix.
Agree. What we might have here is a band of cut throats out to make as much mayhem in 2016 as they can! They've got nothing to lose really and they're not really playing with any true or legitimate strategic objective in mind. Could be very dangerous for the unwary!
Appreciate what GTC and cookie are saying, but there's too many good players out, and too much last minute patching up for Essendon to do much. They might start well, but will fade pretty quickly IMO.
For what it's worth, this is my guess at the way teams will finish this year. I'm tipping Freo EDIT or Hawks for the flag - reckon the penny might've finally dropped for ol Toss. EDIT : on further thought, if the reduced rotations have a big impact, then lean and mean teams like Hawthorn would have an advantage over bigger bodied teams like Freo. Hmmm............
I do wonder whether the reduced rotations will encourage teams to play frenetic 1st and 2nd quarters, to build up a substantial half time lead, in anticipation of running out of steam late in the game ?
1-4
Fremantle
Sydney
Hawthorn
West Coast
5-8 ( in no particular order)
North Melbourne
Collingwood
Western Bulldogs or Geelong
Richmond
9-14 ( in no particular order)
Essendon or Brisbane
Giants
St Kilda
Crows
Port
Western Bulldogs or Geelong
15-18 ( in no particular order)
Melbourne
GC
Carlton
Essendon or Brisbane
@Paul
I guess if we can show a real strong improvement in our competitiveness and fight games out to the final siren, and at the same time get some good draft picks it would be a good outcome. ;)
@Paul
I guess if we can show a real strong improvement in our competitiveness and fight games out to the final siren, and at the same time get some good draft picks it would be a good outcome. ;)
Yes, and I wonder whether the club is thinking the same.
I reckon we are least likely to play four quarters this season over any other in recent history.
Reduced rotations and lots of green players combined with a new game plan...
I think Paul is pretty close with how it will go.
Geelong wont make the eight, especially if Selwood misses the first part of the year.
i reckon we'll surprise a few - even ourselves.
Pretty solid core if up and about fitness wise?
Gibbs, Smurf, Daisy, Special K, Walks, Simmo, Jamo, Everitt, Kerridge, Weitering, Docherty. Oh and that other spud, Cripps.
Bit of class there, not to mention young Plowman (former #3 draftee), E & C Curnow etc.
I'll say 8 to 12 finish.
i reckon we'll surprise a few - even ourselves.
Pretty solid core if up and about fitness wise?
Gibbs, Smurf, Daisy, Special K, Walks, Simmo, Jamo, Everitt, Kerridge, Weitering, Docherty. Oh and that other spud, Cripps.
Bit of class there, not to mention young Plowman (former #3 draftee), E & C Curnow etc.
I'll say 8 to 12 finish.
Nice to see some optimism Flyboy :)
I'm hoping for 8-12 but I suspect 11-14 is more realistic.
Nice to see some optimism Flyboy :)
I'm hoping for 8-12 but I suspect 11-14 is more realistic.
DJ..Those will probably be closer to the delist numbers ;)........reckon SOS will want another bottom four finish to get a good go in a strong draft.
Kicking goals will be a problem as will stopping them IMO and one thing that most of us forget is that other clubs have not been standing still and will also improve...Essendon being the exception.
DJ..Those will probably be closer to the delist numbers ;)........reckon SOS will want another bottom four finish to get a good go in a strong draft.
Kicking goals will be a problem as will stopping them IMO and one thing that most of us forget is that other clubs have not been standing still and will also improve...Essendon being the exception.
We're a club in a hurry EB and Bolton will be under some pressure to improve our on field performance so that our bottom line becomes a little healthier.
Yes, some clubs will improve, some will stagnate and others will fall away. I haven't analysed other clubs' lists but I expect at least six of the top 8 to be there again. The middle six is where most change is likely and we could just sneak in if things go our way. Essendon will be rubbish, Brisbane won't progress and Melbourne and St Kilda are likely to fall away. There has to be a big question mark over Gold Coast and Port and Footscray may suffer from the loss of key players.
As I've said before, our list isn't as bad as our diabolically poor coaching suggested.
We lost by 10 goals to the team above us. We're pretty terrible.
To reiterate.....no talent....pffft.
4 x #1s - Gibbs, Smurf, Special K & Weitering
2 x #2s - Daisy, 1AW
#3 - Plowman
#8 - Curnow C.
2 x #10s - Gorringe, Sumner
2 x #11s - Everitt, McKay
2x #12s - Jaksch, Docherty
#13 - Cripps
#19 - Cuningham
Add Kerridge (walk up starter) - #27 draftee in 2011.
Other proven performers - 2E, Jamo, Simmo, Levi, Wright, Lamb (#21 draftee in 2010)
We lost by 10 goals to the team above us. We're pretty terrible.
When you give up mentally - you get pumped. Teams can score 5 goals in 6 minutes these days when the pressure's off....
When you give up mentally - you get pumped. Teams can score 5 goals in 6 minutes these days when the pressure's off....
Yep, mental fitness and preparation is just as important as the physical side.
To reiterate.....no talent....pffft.
4 x #1s - Gibbs, Smurf, Special K & Weitering & Josh Fraser
2 x #2s - Daisy, 1AW
#3 - Plowman
#8 - Curnow C.
2 x #10s - Gorringe, Sumner
2 x #11s - Everitt, McKay
2x #12s - Jaksch, Docherty
#13 - Cripps
#18 - Wood
#19 - Cuningham
Add Kerridge (walk up starter) - #27 draftee in 2011.
Other proven performers - 2E, Jamo, Simmo, Levi, Wright, Lamb (#21 draftee in 2010)
I have added Wood to your list and Josh Fraser, simply because Weitering included him in our five number 1 draft picks :)
It is a pretty strong list on paper when it comes to draft picks but we lack numbers in the critical 24 to 26 year old age bracket. That may not be an issue if the older blokes continue to perform and the younger blokes step up. We only have five 20 to 21 year olds and that may become an issue in future. I expect SOS will be looking to address our age structure at the end of this season along with other deficiencies that may become evident. I don't expect wholesale changes but that will depend on performances and buy in to Bolton's approach.
We lost by 10 goals to the team above us. We're pretty terrible.
We play them June 4 at Etihad....they wont get near us.
We play them June 4 at Etihad....they wont get near us.
They probably think the same thing. We're all riding on hope ATM and I'd rather our mind's focussed on the fact that we''re a long way behind and need to work very hard to be competitive for four quarters against a team like Brisbane instead of already a monty.
They probably think the same thing. We're all riding on hope ATM and I'd rather our mind's focussed on the fact that we''re a long way behind and need to work very hard to be competitive for four quarters against a team like Brisbane instead of already a monty.
Agree - there's a lot of good vibes around at the moment. There is too close a link between optimism and complacency. We are in no position to be cocky.
We're particularly notorious
Agree - there's a lot of good vibes around at the moment. There is too close a link between optimism and complacency. We are in no position to be cocky.
There's a close link between pessimism and despondency too, as we witnessed last season.
Bolton's challenge is to strike a balance between condifidence and, hence, optimal arousal levels, and realistic expectations.
They probably think the same thing. We're all riding on hope ATM and I'd rather our mind's focussed on the fact that we''re a long way behind and need to work very hard to be competitive for four quarters against a team like Brisbane instead of already a monty.
As the Dogs showed in 2015 - no team is that far behind. Get the head in the right space/place - the rest takes care of itself...
Reckon we will be doing quite well to hold on to our ladder position from last year. Can't see us getting past that given the number of new faces we have on the list.
Reckon we will be doing quite well to hold on to our ladder position from last year. Can't see us getting past that given the number of new faces we have on the list.
I can't understand that logic Sheik :-\
Yes, we have an inexperienced list but the blokes we brought in are streets ahead of those who departed (on their 2016 form).
Reckon we will be doing quite well to hold on to our ladder position from last year. Can't see us getting past that given the number of new faces we have on the list.
Yes I agree.
I don't think we will see the winning / losing streak we saw last season, at least I hope we don't, if we do we haven't progressed.
I'm hoping we see us winning some close ones, with a balanced mix of expected wins and losses. Along with fewer games like those ones last year in which we never looked like a serious opponent.
I suspect our defence might be a little weaker this year, as much as Tuohy is maligned by many supporters he was a very effective negator. Plus the retirement of Jamison removes an experienced head on and off the field.
I'll be interested to see the effect 1AW has on the young players, if he's effective we should see them rapidly looking fitter and stronger by mid-season. I suspect he'll either make them or break them in this regard, he punished himself at times from a endurance and aerobic fitness perspective which is not always a good thing.
I can't understand that logic Sheik :-\
Yes, we have an inexperienced list but the blokes we brought in are streets ahead of those who departed (on their 2016 form).
Zach Tuohy (irrespective of his 2016 form) will be missed, and young Byrne might be tracking nicely but his absence from our team really stifled a lot of our run. I also think that young Cripps with a hindered pre season might be doing well to reproduce any of his form from last year, let alone firing from round 1.
I think that too many people are being labelled as pessimists, when they are being realists just because too many are being optimistic.
I can't understand that logic Sheik :-\
Yes, we have an inexperienced list but the blokes we brought in are streets ahead of those who departed (on their 2016 form).
They have yet to kick a ball in anger... how can you claim them to be "streets ahead of those who departed"? ????
Do you mean that any of them can kick 50 goals a season, be capable of playing forward and back and will play 200 games ?
Every year we delist and retire players and we recruit replacements... and we hope they are all upgrades.
Guess what ? 17 other teams do the same thing !
No guarantees...
Zach Tuohy (irrespective of his 2016 form) will be missed, and young Byrne might be tracking nicely but his absence from our team really stifled a lot of our run. I also think that young Cripps with a hindered pre season might be doing well to reproduce any of his form from last year, let alone firing from round 1.
I think that too many people are being labelled as pessimists, when they are being realists just because too many are being optimistic.
Yes Tuohy was a best 22 player, as was Walker, although wear and tear rendered him a shadow of his best. The other players we shed, including Jammo, did nothing in 2016. Marchbank is a more than adequate replacement for Jammo (at his best) and we know Palmer and Smedts can play. That's one reasonable HBF and two struggling players out and one exciting KPP and two reasonable players in, making a stronger list. Of course, if a couple of SPS, Pickett, Lebois, Fisher, Macreadie, Polson, Williamson and Kerr make the grade, we're well ahead of 2016. Then there's the development of last year's draft crop.
Holding on to our ladder position should be achievable as the lower end of acceptable outcomes. That's based on a considered, realistic assessment of our list changes - and Bolton's call for fans to be patient :) An optimistic view would have us playing finals, and I think that the chances of that happening are very slim.
Yes Tuohy was a best 22 player, as was Walker, although wear and tear rendered him a shadow of his best. The other players we shed, including Jammo, did nothing in 2016. Marchbank is a more than adequate replacement for Jammo (at his best) and we know Palmer and Smedts can play. That's one reasonable HBF and two struggling players out and one exciting KPP and two reasonable players in, making a stronger list. Of course, if a couple of SPS, Pickett, Lebois, Fisher, Macreadie, Polson, Williamson and Kerr make the grade, we're well ahead of 2016. Then there's the development of last year's draft crop.
Holding on to our ladder position should be achievable as the lower end of acceptable outcomes. That's based on a considered, realistic assessment of our list changes - and Bolton's call for fans to be patient :) An optimistic view would have us playing finals, and I think that the chances of that happening are very slim.
I think we saw last year that Weitering and Plowman didn't quite have the size to deal with the KPFs, which is why Rowe had such a good season in my opinion. Rowe wasn't filling gaps around Jammo as Jammo was out, Rowe was the main man and it showed in his performances.
Not sure Marchbank or Plowman are a Jammo type. Whether supporters like him or not Jammo was an exceptional fullback dealing with opponents far bigger than him.
Perhaps Weitering will develop far greater upper body strength in 2017, he's got the legs, he needs the core, arms and chest. This idea of developing core strength is not as straight forward as doing the training, some people just never get it, the don't have a body wired the right way!
I don't see Smedts as a heavy defensive hitter, he can play, but he plays more like we want Boekhorst to play. I see them both as running options. Smedts reminds me of Simmo pressing forward, but without Simmo's attack on the football. If Casboult is fit and firing up the field, or McKay, I expect to see Boekhorst or Smedts hitting the front and square on the wing to receive and delivering the footy inside F50 or even finishing. They should model themselves on Breust or Gunston. I'll be very disappointed if I see Smedts and Boekhorst always forward of the contest looking for a cheap handball.
To me Palmer is McLean Mk.II, he'll do the grunt stuff, be the link man, put himself in the right positions to pop up regularly when required. You should not expect too much flash, just a job doer getting a job done.
Yes Tuohy was a best 22 player, as was Walker, although wear and tear rendered him a shadow of his best. The other players we shed, including Jammo, did nothing in 2016. Marchbank is a more than adequate replacement for Jammo (at his best) and we know Palmer and Smedts can play. That's one reasonable HBF and two struggling players out and one exciting KPP and two reasonable players in, making a stronger list. Of course, if a couple of SPS, Pickett, Lebois, Fisher, Macreadie, Polson, Williamson and Kerr make the grade, we're well ahead of 2016. Then there's the development of last year's draft crop.
Holding on to our ladder position should be achievable as the lower end of acceptable outcomes. That's based on a considered, realistic assessment of our list changes - and Bolton's call for fans to be patient :) An optimistic view would have us playing finals, and I think that the chances of that happening are very slim.
See I disagree.
I think its a realistic assesment to believe that we have gone forward at roughly the same rate we have gone backwards and that we will realistically tread water.
I do think that players that are having hindered pre seasons are an example we can point to as to why we will be inferior than the 2016 version. Walker, Jamison are furthy's. They played 15 games between them for 9 goals and not much gain. We might lack a bit of their experience and leadership, but thats easily countered by youthful enthusiasm. Tuohy on the other hand, had a solid if unspectacular year and statistically one of his best seasons. 22 games, more disposals than ever before. Solid.
Marchbank may negate his absence. He has the ability to, but he is a young buck early in his career, and Tuohy whilst no superstar, was a solid week in and week out performer.
Byrne is also down and out for now. He might come good later on, but it means we have two holes being filled by one acquisition for a net loss even if thats temporary, and even if Sheehan can step up to fill the void, there are no guarantees he will get an elevation nor that he will hold up for more than a couple of weeks as his body has been letting him down.
Add Phillips going down injured to LTI, and a sprinkle of Gorringe being hindered, and then you start relying on our young draftees to improve significantly on their 2016 output, to help us tread water. History shows draftees take about 3 years to get going to solid performing AFL players and that is usually the better draftees. Guns like Cripps just morph into freaks and become excellent players and are very few and far between. Use Bryce Gibbs and Marc Murphy as your comparisions, and we can expect limited improvement through draftees.
Can Simpson at age 33 continue playing sterling footy forever?
Can Docherty reproduce his career best form of 2016?
Can Murphy reproduce his career best form rather than anything else?
There are enough things there to suggest that we could improve, or that we could go backwards looking at known quantities with the only likely outcome (based on current knowledge) that we will simply be roughly where we were at last year. We might even go to a more exciting version of ourselves and win the exact same amount of games. That in itself is improvement.
Do you understand me? That is a more than realistic scenario IMHO.
At the end of the day I look at it as us laying the groundwork to achieve future progress, and not necessarily improving this season. The improvement will never be linear. At some point it will increase more than before, but it may taper at some points too, and I see this year as being a tapering year laying the foundation for future drastic improvement.
I am probably more with you Thry - it's a groundwork year and we will do very well if we win 7 games again given the forward-line we have.
To add to the lose of ZT I would also say that the lose of Everitt is another hole that needs to be filled. He had a lot of faults, but in our 'golden run' of beating Coll, PA and Geelong he kicked 3/3/4 goals and was instrumental in all those wins. He also kicked 3 against Freo. When the team was playing well he was able to convert the good work into goals better than any player on the list.
To understand just how poor our forward-line is I looked at some stats last night - we kicked 224 goals last year and 219 in 2015. You have to go back nearly 50 years to find a Carlton team who has kicked 220 goals in a year - even through our worst period we had a more potent forward-line!
Historic stats will also tell you that first or 2nd year players rarely achieve anything more than a goal per game - so McKay, Curnow, Jack, Pickett, Fisher etc cannot be expected to deliver match winning goal scoring performances. This really leaves Levi and Wright as our main avenues to goal this year [as they were last year], but we need them to score more goals more regularly than either of them have ever done in the past.
The other interesting thing to note about Levi and his goal scoring is he has been far from the 'match winner' you desperately want your KPF to be. He kicked 1 goals or less in 6 of our 7 wins [he kicked 3 against Coll]. Relying on him to be the main guy has proven something that he is not capable of over the last 3 years.
Tip top post. Loving your work sbf.
I have a love/hate thing with Cas. I like the guy,and want him to do well. Great marking etc. But I find it appalling that someone who made has debut in 2012 and has now played 72 games according to wikipedia, still needs to be taught how to kick. This is not the situation you want from someone who is supposed to be top 3 of your leading goal kickers every season. One wonders if any other AFL club would countenance a situation like this.
I've stated before that I think he should be played in the goal square, but nobody seems to like that idea.
Tip top post. Loving your work sbf.
I have a love/hate thing with Cas. I like the guy,and want him to do well. Great marking etc. But I find it appalling that someone who made has debut in 2012 and has now played 72 games according to wikipedia, still needs to be taught how to kick. This is not the situation you want from someone who is supposed to be top 3 of your leading goal kickers every season. One wonders if any other AFL club would countenance a situation like this.
I've stated before that I think he should be played in the goal square, but nobody seems to like that idea.
Yep. Banking too much on Levi is, as they say, a triumph of hope over experience. If he fires it will be a bonus, but don't put your house on it. We need other options for sure.
Yep. Banking too much on Levi is, as they say, a triumph of hope over experience. If he fires it will be a bonus, but don't put your house on it. We need other options for sure.
Never a truer word was spoken - but who else other than Levi has the potential to kick 30-40 goals in a year?? Without having someone kicking this sort of number you are resigned to kicking low 200 goals in a year, and finishing bottom 4. To climb even mid pack we need to increase our scoring shots per game by over 30% compared to what we delivered in the back half of 2016.
That is massive increase in any one language, especially when we have not recruited any experienced goal kickers. That is why realistically I don't see us moving from the bottom 4 next year unless we produce something extraordinary up front.
I've stated before that I think he should be played in the goal square, but nobody seems to like that idea.
Is it practical?
In reality it takes a sh1t load of effort to generate shots inside 25m and when you get them in that zone you cannot afford to waste them, if you do waste them it's demoralising to the team based on effort versus reward.
By comparison you can generate a sh1t load of shots from 50m and nobody is expected to kick them, if you get them you're a hero and if you don't it's no big deal!
So perhaps it's a bit of harm minimisation being put in place by the top dogs!
As a coach you'd be on a short life expectancy if you built a game plan to deliver goal square marking opportunities to your clunking forward only to see him burn you 50% of the time when he actually clunked one. How many opportunities would he get, how many of those would he clunk, how many of those would he kick? It's not a winning, positive, or improvement strategy.
Is it practical?
In reality it takes a sh1t load of effort to generate shots inside 25m and when you get them in that zone you cannot afford to waste them, if you do waste them it's demoralising to the team based on effort versus reward.
By comparison you can generate a sh1t load of shots from 50m and nobody is expected to kick them, if you get them you're a hero and if you don't it's no big deal!
So perhaps it's a bit of harm minimisation being put in place by the top dogs!
As a coach you'd be on a short life expectancy if you built a game plan to deliver goal square marking opportunities to your clunking forward only to see him burn you 50% of the time. It's not a winning, positive, or improvement strategy.
The next time you see Casboult missing a set shot, 30 out, right in front, sunny day, no breeze etc. , you will, in a very well practiced move, reach, in a pique of fury, for those three remaining strands of hair on our head. As your hand maneuvers this way and that, desperately searching those "no so green shoots" you will realize that they were in fact ripped out the last time you saw Casboult kick. Just like Saul on the road to Damascus, you will experience a blinding flash of light, of such terrifying force that it will propel from your sofa to a place you never knew existed. In this moment, you will cast your mind back to Pauly's Paddock, and you will think to yourself, "you know what - that good for nothing, hairy ar$ed primate may be onto something."
The next time you see Casboult missing a set shot, 30 out, right in front, sunny day, no breeze etc. , you will, in a very well practiced move, reach, in a pique of fury, for those three remaining strands of hair on our head. As your hand maneuvers this way and that, desperately searching those "no so green shoots" you will realize that they were in fact ripped out the last time you saw Casboult kick. Just like Saul on the road to Damascus, you will experience a blinding flash of light, of such terrifying force that it will propel from your sofa to a place you never knew existed. In this moment, you will cast your mind back to Pauly's Paddock, and you will think to yourself, "you know what - that good for nothing, hairy ar$ed primate may be onto something."
Great mental picture there, and something to varying degrees we can all relate to I'm sure..........
The point is maybe 20 years ago you could have gotten away with 'Levi in the goal square' but the game has changed too much since then. You can argue the merits of that change until the cows come home, but the fact is all forwards have to be able to press up high when they don't have the ball and be able to make a contest on the wing and then double back into the free space.
Actually last week Cas looked good when he led up to the HFF and took a few nice marks. He is an elite contested mark, so many would argue he is most useful to the team when he marks the ball up the ground and not i50 - letting others finishing off his work.
That would all make sense if we had another marking target and goal kicker who could consistently take advantage of his work. To become a good team you need 3-4 genuine forward targets who can kick multiple goals and give your attack variety. In 2-3 years we might be there if all the draftees come off [but we know statistically that less than half of them will in reality], but this year we rival only Brisbane in our lack of offensive threats. This means that teams are always in the game against us, and they only have to shut down Levi and Wright and then we don't have many other threats. It also means that Levi is going to continue to spend a lot of time up the ground, not camped i50.
sbf, I know it's not trendy, I know it's probably daggy, but I have no faith that Casboult will fix his kicking now. He's been on the list 5, 6 seasons, plus the NB's before that, plus x years of junior footy, and still these chronic problems persist. I should also add, somewhat comically, that the Hawks under Clarkson didn't have all that recent success by following trends.
The FF in the goal square doesn't have to be every second of every game. I've said before Levi is great as a target after a behind is scored, on the wing etc. He could easily play a few different roles - just nothing that involves kicking for goal between 20-50m from goal.
Other teams know Casboult will be a nightmare in the goal square. It's takes his big Achilles heel out of the equation. He's an elite mark. He can easily hold his own in the rough stuff. He will never be left one on one in the goal square. He'll have at least 2, maybe 3 defenders watching him, because from there he'll mark anything and won't miss. He can even be used as a decoy if required. The F50 setup is critical - we need the 2nd and 3rd talls, and the goal sneaks all set up correctly. The ball delivery needs to be suited to the play. Flat and short to the 2nd and 3rd talls further away from goal. Higher and more helicopter style if going to the goal square, pricnially to avoid being picked off as an intercept by a defender.
I say we try it for a few games - it's not as if we're putting our flag chances in jeopardy by doing so.
And can I just add, the FF in the goal square idea will also hopefully force / encourage our players to run and carry more and kick deeper, with the ball landing closer to the goal square. I don't know why, but it almost seems as though our players are scared of being dispossessed, so rather than release the ball closer to the 50m arc, they release the ball further up field, resulting in shallow F50 entries that don't translate into genuine scoring opportunities. Our F50 entries have been a bugaboo of mine for a while now.
Im like Paul, I like Levi, he's a good fella but I think the sooner we move from him the better. Sadly I don't think he will ever learn to kick goals, especially under pressure. Ive stated before perhaps he should be tried as a defender, what's there to lose? But it would need to be a fast trial as I think his time has just about run out. Having said all that, the caveat on it all is that it is purely the opinion of outsider looking in, someone who knows nothing about footy compared to those at the helm. Perhaps there are other things he does well that warrant persisting with him. Perhaps Sav has weaved his magic on him and he will win the Coleman medal. ;D
Perhaps Sav has weaved his magic on him and he will win the Coleman medal. ;D
Or... Perhaps the Coleman comes to us via another avenue. Perhaps Kennedy's coming home. A marque player?? A KP marque player??? ;) if I was inclined to have a flutter, I bet the odds of the Coleman coming to CFC would be long and longer in those two scenarios.
I think we'll struggle in the goal scoring department again this year. The end result of course, will be a high draft pick. Not all bad. Patience grasshoppers.
I have no idea who is going to kick our goals this year, but I am expecting improvement, in this area, as much as I am percentage and in wins and losses, maybe not much but a little.
So I will be excited to see who steps up and surprises me and announces themselves as a goal kicking forward that we will be able to rely on moving into the future.
Perhaps Sav has weaved his magic on him and he will win the Coleman medal. ;D
Or... Perhaps the Coleman comes to us via another avenue. Perhaps Kennedy's coming home. A marque player?? A KP marque player??? ;) if I was inclined to have a flutter, I bet the odds of the Coleman coming to CFC would be long and longer in those two scenarios.
I think we'll struggle in the goal scoring department again this year. The end result of course, will be a high draft pick. Not all bad. Patience grasshoppers.
Maybe. But on Kennedy, he is home unfortunately for us. He loved the Blues but we are distant memory for him. A KPF marquee player would be nice, lets just see how the year plays out. I know if we raid GWS, it wont be the General as he has signed a new deal. Cameron maybe although I am not entirely sold on him as the main man. He looked like he was going to take the comp by storm and since then has done two tenths of FA. Has he been injured and is he too fragile perhaps? There isnt much of him.
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/51cfa539e4b0d519d0bc8801/t/572c10974c2f85218305d95d/1462505632979/?format=1500w (https://static1.squarespace.com/static/51cfa539e4b0d519d0bc8801/t/572c10974c2f85218305d95d/1462505632979/?format=1500w)
For those who are interested here is the graphs showing the relationships between scoring shots and winning rate. We are actually an outlier on this graph due to our poor defence over the period meaning we needed more scoring shots to win games than most other teams.
This is 16 years of recent data and it held true last year. On average, to win 50% of your games [11 per year] you need to average around 25 shots per game. If you have less than 20 you are unlikely to win more than 4 games per year. We averaged 18 in the back half of the year, so if the aim is to win 8-9 games this year we would need to improve this to around 23 shots, or a 30% improvement on our recent trend. That equates to roughly 60 more goals than we scored last year.
That's a big improvement delta in the absence of a proven KPF goal kicker, and realistically i can't see it happening when relying on 2nd year draftees with an average of about 10 games each to their name.
My personal view is also that until you get a few decent, smart forwards in your team your forward entries are usually going to be terrible. Opp defences these days are very fit, well drilled and organised, and we are very easy to set up against because we don't have multiple marking threats and players who can draw opponents away from the ball. The obvious example of this is Hawthorn, who have a great balance of athletic talls, mid sized marking players [Gunston] and smaller players [Rioli, Bruest, Puopolo, Shields].
So I will be excited to see who steps up and surprises me and announces themselves as a goal kicking forward that we will be able to rely on moving into the future.
That's how it sometimes happens...as the season progresses one or two players will step up, exceed expectations and become a key target.
We can't see it now...but at the end of the year you look back and see it was there all the time.
We don't know who.
It may be a small forward
It may be one of the big youngsters.
It may be one of the backmen moved forward.
It might be the guy who suddenly realises his potential and gets a bit more accurate ;)
It may be one of the guys who've been languishing in the reserves accumulating experience who suddenly clicks.
Or best of all it may be a combination of several.
...and if that's a bit "pie in the sky" thinking I don't think it's any less plausible than a stagnating forward line that fails to kick 224 goals with a main goalkicker netting less than 22 for the season.
That's how it sometimes happens...as the season progresses one or two players will step up, exceed expectations and become a key target.
We can't see it now...but at the end of the year you look back and see it was there all the time.
We don't know who.
It may be a small forward
It may be one of the big youngsters.
It may be one of the backmen moved forward.
It might be the guy who suddenly realises his potential and gets a bit more accurate ;)
It may be one of the guys who've been languishing in the reserves accumulating experience who suddenly clicks.
Or best of all it may be a combination of several.
...and if that's a bit "pie in the sky" thinking I don't think it's any less plausible than a stagnating forward line that fails to kick 224 goals with a main goalkicker netting less than 22 for the season.
Don't get me wrong - I hope your right and obviously we need a combination of improvement, especially given that the bulk of our forward line is so young. The only way is up for most of them as McKay, Kerr, Pickett, SOJ and Curnow have played a combined total of 14 games and kicked 12 goals. But this has to be the nucleus of our forward line for the future.
My main point is we have the equal worst [statistically] and most inexperienced forward line in the league. It is extremely rare for a 1st or 2nd year player to average more than one goal per game, and Levi has averaged 1 goal per year over his 70 game career. At best he might break out to 30-35, but that would be a massive jump based on the evidence so far.
So the most probable outcome is we will average low 20's in scoring shots, and therefore have 4-6 wins - but hopefully with a properly functioning forward line starting to appear in the back half of the year which we can build on in 2018 with the recruitment of an established goal kicking forward to add to the mix.
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/51cfa539e4b0d519d0bc8801/t/572c10974c2f85218305d95d/1462505632979/?format=1500w (https://static1.squarespace.com/static/51cfa539e4b0d519d0bc8801/t/572c10974c2f85218305d95d/1462505632979/?format=1500w)
For those who are interested here is the graphs showing the relationships between scoring shots and winning rate. We are actually an outlier on this graph due to our poor defence over the period meaning we needed more scoring shots to win games than most other teams.
This is 16 years of recent data and it held true last year. On average, to win 50% of your games [11 per year] you need to average around 25 shots per game. If you have less than 20 you are unlikely to win more than 4 games per year. We averaged 18 in the back half of the year, so if the aim is to win 8-9 games this year we would need to improve this to around 23 shots, or a 30% improvement on our recent trend. That equates to roughly 60 more goals than we scored last year.
That's a big improvement delta in the absence of a proven KPF goal kicker, and realistically i can't see it happening when relying on 2nd year draftees with an average of about 10 games each to their name.
My personal view is also that until you get a few decent, smart forwards in your team your forward entries are usually going to be terrible. Opp defences these days are very fit, well drilled and organised, and we are very easy to set up against because we don't have multiple marking threats and players who can draw opponents away from the ball. The obvious example of this is Hawthorn, who have a great balance of athletic talls, mid sized marking players [Gunston] and smaller players [Rioli, Bruest, Puopolo, Shields].
StATS can be such BS, can't they.
You say, oh a 30% INCREASE IN SCORING SHOTS (18 to 23).
Looking at that another way, that is only 1.25 extra scoring shots a quarter which is SFA if your midfield is winning more battles than not.
The stats do paint a picture though, especially when a look through several seasons reveals the same or similar patterns. This creates a reasonably sized sample space, to the extent that the points sbf makes are, IMO, valid.
No team has a 100% goal conversion rate from f50 entries. Nowhere near it. It's a numbers game. You need 100 entries to kick 20 goals (for example). If you're not generating a surplus of F50 entries, you're behind the 8 ball to begin with. And if your F50 entries are shallow and generate too many difficult scoring shots, you're even further behind. And if you don't have much confidence in the guy you're kicking to (even subconsciously), you look for other, perhaps more difficult options, and on it goes.
StATS can be such BS, can't they.
You say, oh a 30% INCREASE IN SCORING SHOTS (18 to 23).
Looking at that another way, that is only 1.25 extra scoring shots a quarter which is SFA if your midfield is winning more battles than not.
That is true - it doesn't sound like much in isolation. But when you are only having 4-5 per quarter [over the last 44 games], an extra 1.25 is still proportionally a very big increase!
And you are also right that everyone 'picks' stats to support their view - it's human nature to do it. I just like to put a little factual rigor around my comments & opinions, but that doesn't make them any more [or less] valid than anybody else's.
I am optimistic that we are on the right path, and extremely hopeful that we can improve quickly and become a genuine contender sooner rather than later. But I am realistic enough to believe that this year, based on probability and the stats, we are only going to win 4-6 games and finish lower than last year.
My personal view is also that until you get a few decent, smart forwards in your team your forward entries are usually going to be terrible. Opp defences these days are very fit, well drilled and organised, and we are very easy to set up against because we don't have multiple marking threats and players who can draw opponents away from the ball. The obvious example of this is Hawthorn, who have a great balance of athletic talls, mid sized marking players [Gunston] and smaller players [Rioli, Bruest, Puopolo, Shields].
True'...but it's pretty hard to know how good your forwards really are when they're starved of opportunities.
One of the things we have to be careful of is looking at the forward line in isolation.
So much depends on the backline and midfield creating scoring opportunities for the forwards.
If you're being beaten further down the field a forward's life can be a pretty lonely one and a defence's job is so much easier if forward entries are constantly being made under pressure.
At the end of the day, those tempering their expectations are simply making a case that we need time.
That means, less pressure on the club, less pressure on the players, less pressure on the coaches, and more time to figure it all out.
We might see snippets this season. Some more green shoots. Some will grow quite quickly, others will take some time.
It happens.
On the stats side of things it is remarkable how similar AFL games are on average when you combine the stats of both teams. A few percent might not sound much but it makes a massive difference.
Lets say you have a combined average from both teams of one scoring shot every ten F50 entries, so that means 10% of F50 entries create a score.
If one team can increase scores from entries to 11% or 12% that is massive, it's a 10% or 20% swing, and that comes at the expense of your opponent, so maybe they drop from 10% down to 9% or 8%.
I know it doesn't sound much but that is equal to a 4 or 5 goal swing which effectively flips the result of most games.
Murph has had 20+ goal seasons in the past, So has Gibbs, I think, he is definitely a goal kicker anyway. So is Palmer. If Wright can repeat last year, there's another. It would only take a slightly more consistent year from Casboult to kick 25+ goals. I reckon SOS could average close to a goal a game this year as well. Pickett, kicked 2 goals in a qtr last week.
I've named 7 players, even if only 4-5 of those can have 20+ goal seasons we will be well ahead of where we were last year, and it's not asking for miracles of any one player.
Murph has had 20+ goal seasons in the past, So has Gibbs, I think, he is definitely a goal kicker anyway. So is Palmer. If Wright can repeat last year, there's another. It would only take a slightly more consistent year from Casboult to kick 25+ goals. I reckon SOS could average close to a goal a game this year as well. Pickett, kicked 2 goals in a qtr last week.
I've named 7 players, even if only 4-5 of those can have 20+ goal seasons we will be well ahead of where we were last year, and it's not asking for miracles of any one player.
This is exactly the key, which is why coaches care far more about a spread of goal kickers than a Coleman medalist.
A good example is Cloke, his was barely missed in 2016 by the Pies. Their Win/Loss record was the same with or without him!
No doubt a spread of goal kickers is desirable and helps you move up the ladder a little, but the successful top end teams still seem to have "star attraction" and a very good supporting cast i.e one bloke who can kick 50+ goals and a few others not far behind.
The Doggies are a real anamoly in this respect.
As a small sample, have a look here, and click on the GL column :
http://afltables.com/afl/stats/2016.html
As a small sample, have a look here, and click on the GL column :
http://afltables.com/afl/stats/2016.html
The most telling stat is I50 all the top goal kicking teams have higher than average I50 counts, but the I50 of the top teams is only 30% more than the bottom teams, while the conversion rate is much higher meaning goals almost double.
Example on goals only;
Adelaide 396/1389 = 28%
Carlton 224/1116 = 20%
If we look at scoring shots in total;
Adelaide 667/1389 = 48%
Carlton 410/1116 = 36%
If Carlton had scored goals 28% of the time it enters F50 we would have kicked 312 goals last season, roughly equal to West Coast, Bulldogs and Port Adelaide but better than Norp.
That's between 3 and 4 more goals a game we need to be equivalent to a top eight team without extra entries.
The difference between the KPF and the average goals per game accounts for little of those differences, because you can only attribute the difference between the top goal kicker and your clubs average players. The most successful teams are those that have more players in the 20 to 40 goal kickers.
Coaches push the repeat effort mantra because reward for effort is not linear, those extra efforts when players go above and beyond opponents are rewarded disproportionately. Which is why a 30% increase in F50 entries results in twice as many goals. It's also a prime reason why blokes like Franklin and Kennedy are so successful, and why Fev was so successful. Lead, double back, lead, back, lead again! Work equals reward, 2nd, 3rd or 4th leads get rewarded more than 1st leads.
When Casboult played his best he regularly got the ball on his 3rd lead, but his kicking deteriorates as he gets tired as it does for everybody, he is starting from an already low base. When he sucks he is often out of the contest after his 2nd lead, same applies to Jones.
Jones is an interesting one, his worst games last year was when he gave up. Earlier in the season he wasn't rewarded for his good work because our team wasn't spotting him up, despite him achieving great separation and working his ar5e off. If teams do not reward players for effort the effort stops, and so did Jones!
Betts does so well because he's like a jigsaw, he's back and forth that often his opponents must get seasick!
No question that getting value for your F50 entries is critical.
An extra 3 or 4 per game might not look like much on paper, but that would require how many extra I50? 10 ? 12 ? If we're looking at 5 or 6 players kicking around 20 goal per season, I'm not sure the extra 3 or 4 goals per game is that easy.
No question that getting value for your F50 entries is critical.
An extra 3 or 4 per game might not look like much on paper, but that would require how many extra I50? 10 ? 12 ? If we're looking at 5 or 6 players kicking around 20 goal per season, I'm not sure the extra 3 or 4 goals per game is that easy.
Probably ten I50 if you also increase the efficiency.
Our problem isn't the KPF it's the average goal kickers, last season our highest on average was Everitt but he was #70 on the league tables, our next is Jones in about #84 position and Armfield at #89 position. We only had 3 players in the top 100, Tutt was #113 and Wright #116.
It's a very sad state of affairs, most of our guys average less than a goal a game, we need four or five more players getting a goal a game and we have a significant change.
SOJ, C.Curnow could be two who can average above 1 per game.
Murphy if he's back averages about 0.7
McKay who knows?
Cripps should improve in this regard.
SPS / Pickett / Le Bois can they get to 1 goal a game?
What are the reasons why those averages are so low ?
1. We simply don't possess the ball enough to generate a larger number of I50's.
2. The quality of I50 entries are poor, so shots are from too far out, awkward angles etc.
3. The actual players you mention are simply crap goal kickers.
4. The wrong players end up with the shots for goal
5. Lack of work rate all over the ground, especially the forward line
6. Poor decision making - i.e picking the wrong option in F50
etc.
and FWIW, I wouldn't want Cripps taking shots for goal, at least not very often.
What are the reasons why those averages are so low ?
1. We simply don't possess the ball enough to generate a larger number of I50's.
2. The quality of I50 entries are poor, so shots are from too far out, awkward angles etc.
3. The actual players you mention are simply crap goal kickers.
4. The wrong players end up with the shots for goal
5. Lack of work rate all over the ground, especially the forward line
6. Poor decision making - i.e picking the wrong option in F50
etc.
and FWIW, I wouldn't want Cripps taking shots for goal, at least not very often.
Well actually we are far from the lowest I50 team, but our efficiency of scoring from I50 is about the lowest. When you see our blokes marking I50 but chipping the ball sideways it's a tell! ;)
I think you'll be shocked, Cripps will be taking shots for goal Fyfe style because he is that type of midfielder. He's certainly not a Mitchell, Lewis or Hodge and they average next to nothing! I don't see Cripps sitting on the defensive side of stoppages looking to give the ball off, he's going to be in the thick of things winning possessions. Cripps should be targeting at least one goal a game from a free I50 as a result of a stoppage infringement.
Hodge is no longer a mid, but i take your point.
Cripps is not a good kick of the footy. I've said this before. To be sure, he is among the least our worries, and I'm glad he's one of us. But if we f believe what one of the Doggies insiders said recently, a big part of their recruiting in recent times is to get blokes who are exceptional at one thing, and it only has to be one thing, then create a team where each player complements the other by having the exceptional attributes others lack.
If we apply this to us, Cripps needs to be surrounded by good kickers of the ball. In a team with poor kicking skills, he only exacerbates the problem. But I will repeat, he is among the least of our issues.
The most telling stat is I50 all the top goal kicking teams have higher than average I50 counts, but the I50 of the top teams is only 30% more than the bottom teams, while the conversion rate is much higher meaning goals almost double.
Example on goals only;
Adelaide 396/1389 = 28%
Carlton 224/1116 = 20%
If we look at scoring shots in total;
Adelaide 667/1389 = 48%
Carlton 410/1116 = 36%
If Carlton had scored goals 28% of the time it enters F50 we would have kicked 312 goals last season, roughly equal to West Coast, Bulldogs and Port Adelaide but better than Norp.
That's between 3 and 4 more goals a game we need to be equivalent to a top eight team without extra entries.
The difference between the KPF and the average goals per game accounts for little of those differences, because you can only attribute the difference between the top goal kicker and your clubs average players. The most successful teams are those that have more players in the 20 to 40 goal kickers.
Coaches push the repeat effort mantra because reward for effort is not linear, those extra efforts when players go above and beyond opponents are rewarded disproportionately. Which is why a 30% increase in F50 entries results in twice as many goals. It's also a prime reason why blokes like Franklin and Kennedy are so successful, and why Fev was so successful. Lead, double back, lead, back, lead again! Work equals reward, 2nd, 3rd or 4th leads get rewarded more than 1st leads.
When Casboult played his best he regularly got the ball on his 3rd lead, but his kicking deteriorates as he gets tired as it does for everybody, he is starting from an already low base. When he sucks he is often out of the contest after his 2nd lead, same applies to Jones.
Jones is an interesting one, his worst games last year was when he gave up. Earlier in the season he wasn't rewarded for his good work because our team wasn't spotting him up, despite him achieving great separation and working his ar5e off. If teams do not reward players for effort the effort stops, and so did Jones!
Betts does so well because he's like a jigsaw, he's back and forth that often his opponents must get seasick!
The most telling stat is that Adelaide's top 4 goal scorers outscored our whole list!
What are the reasons why those averages are so low ?
1. We simply don't possess the ball enough to generate a larger number of I50's.
2. The quality of I50 entries are poor, so shots are from too far out, awkward angles etc.
3. The actual players you mention are simply crap goal kickers.
4. The wrong players end up with the shots for goal
5. Lack of work rate all over the ground, especially the forward line
6. Poor decision making - i.e picking the wrong option in F50
etc.
and FWIW, I wouldn't want Cripps taking shots for goal, at least not very often.
Intersting, one of BB's comments on SEN about Sat game v Melb was that we over possessed it.
Amers / Lp - I get all that. But here is another fun fact to consider......
If you look at the top 100 goal kickers over the league, and total up each teams total goal contribution from these players, the highest 9 teams made up the top 8 teams. The aggregate goals for those teams ranged from 297 [Adel] to WB [163]. The Bullies were a big anomaly due to their spread of goal scorers and the fact that their major goal kickers in Smith and Redpath both played less than half a year.
Carlton had the lowest number [91] this year, and last year [88]. We need to double this number to get to being mid pack in terms of goal scoring.
Of course you want a spread, as the WB have shown. But I'm just saying that by any statistical measure our current goal scoring is off the charts bad, when compared to Carlton historically or the rest of the competition. Those are the facts.
You can cut the numbers a lot of different ways depending on your point of view. Murphy has averaged over 1 goal per game once in 12 seasons, and has been consistently around 0.7, so you can pencil him in about 15 goals if he plays 20 games - that's 8 more than this year. That makes up for the lose from no Walker [9]. Gibbs contribution last year was higher than above his historical average, and the young guys will contribute 10-15 more goals than last year at best. Palmer, at his best, will just replace what we lose from Everitt. Wright had a career best year in 2016 with 22 goals, so getting much more out of him is unlikely.
We got 61 goals last year out of Lamb, Sumner, Armfield, Buckley, Jones & Tuohy - all players I would expect to see little from if SOJ, Curnow, Pickett and McKay play a lot of games. So if those 4 play and add 60 more goals than last year, but we lose 60 - then you break even basically. I agree you might get more out of Levi, and if he kicks that 30 that's an incremental 12 on last year. But all that's a long way from the extra 60 goals we need to come from our top 5-6 players.
Intersting, one of BB's comments on SEN about Sat game v Melb was that we over possessed it.
Yes, that seemed to be a problem last year; taking an extra kick or handpass and missing the more direct, more threatening option.
I thought it was due in part to lack of confidence in the player presenting and lack of confidence in the ball carrier's ability to hit the target. However, there are times when our players pull off the most audacious ball movement, as we did a few times against Melbourne.
As LP intimated, we sat 13th for I50's last season, 12th for marks I50, then 17th for goals, 15th for behinds.
We're simply not getting enough return for those entries. Again I ask, is it because of bad goal kicking, bad entries that make scoring harder etc. ?
As LP intimated, we sat 13th for I50's last season, 12th for marks I50, then 17th for goals, 15th for behinds.
We're simply not getting enough return for those entries. Again I ask, is it because of bad goal kicking, bad entries that make scoring harder etc. ?
what's the link for all theses stats please?
So if we improve the number AND QUALITY of the I50s and improve our conversion, we're a shoe in for the eight right!? ;) ;)
As LP intimated, we sat 13th for I50's last season, 12th for marks I50, then 17th for goals, 15th for behinds.
We're simply not getting enough return for those entries. Again I ask, is it because of bad goal kicking, bad entries that make scoring harder etc. ?
I think we have too many players who do not want the shot, they have become gun shy as a result of too many relatively easy missed set shots.
Those reports of over-possession, how many of them skirt the F50 arc.
I think we have a positive this year, we have many new faces who want to score goals. We just need the old brigade to give them the opportunities to do so!
I think we have too many players who do not want the shot, they have become gun shy as a result of too many relatively easy missed set shots.
I think we have a positive this year, we have many new faces who want to score goals. We just need the old brigade to give them the opportunities to do so!
So, in your opinion, it's because we have crap goal kickers who are mentally scarred by failure ?
what's the link for all theses stats please?
So if we improve the number AND QUALITY of the I50s and improve our conversion, we're a shoe in for the eight right!? ;) ;)
http://afltables.com/afl/stats/2016.html
We would certainly increase our top 8 chances, for sure. But it's easy to say (or type), not so easy to do.
As LP intimated, we sat 13th for I50's last season, 12th for marks I50, then 17th for goals, 15th for behinds.
We're simply not getting enough return for those entries. Again I ask, is it because of bad goal kicking, bad entries that make scoring harder etc. ?
IMO it's a combination of;
1 - having no quality KPF to who presents consistently and well for the mids to kick the ball to - so we bomb it.
2- no second and third string goal kickers who can consistently score [think Gunston, Clay Smith, LeCras] and make life difficult for defenders and spread them
3 - lack of pace and true crumbing forward
4 - poor goal kicking technique. Thus also leads to guys trying to pass the ball off.
5 - poor foot skills from the guys delivering ball into i50
On my stats we were 7th for marks inside 50 [12], but i reckon if you looked at marks inside 25 we would be bottom. We take a lot from long range which obviously means you miss a lot.
I'm of the view that without quality forwards you can have a great midfield and lot of i50's
Best sites for those looking for more data are;
http://afltables.com/afl/afl_index.html
http://www.footywire.com/
https://www.draftguru.com.au/ - an awesome database about trading and drafts.
http://www.matterofstats.com/ - incredibly detailed stats analysis
Have fun ;) ;)
IMO it's a combination of;
1 - having no quality KPF to who presents consistently and well for the mids to kick the ball to - so we bomb it.
2- no second and third string goal kickers who can consistently score [think Gunston, Clay Smith, LeCras] and make life difficult for defenders and spread them
3 - lack of pace and true crumbing forward
4 - poor goal kicking technique. Thus also leads to guys trying to pass the ball off.
5 - poor foot skills from the guys delivering ball into i50
On my stats we were 7th for marks inside 50 [12], but i reckon if you looked at marks inside 25 we would be bottom. We take a lot from long range which obviously means you miss a lot.
I'm of the view that without quality forwards you can have a great midfield and lot of i50's
sbf, these are similar to my thoughts as well.
Best sites for those looking for more data are;
http://afltables.com/afl/afl_index.html
http://www.footywire.com/
https://www.draftguru.com.au/ - an awesome database about trading and drafts.
http://www.matterofstats.com/ - incredibly detailed stats analysis
Have fun ;) ;)
Thanks for that ....
We might set up a separate section for these as they are pretty useful...I use the afltables a fair bit.
IMO it's a combination of;
1 - having no quality KPF to who presents consistently and well for the mids to kick the ball to - so we bomb it.
2- no second and third string goal kickers who can consistently score [think Gunston, Clay Smith, LeCras] and make life difficult for defenders and spread them
3 - lack of pace and true crumbing forward
4 - poor goal kicking technique. Thus also leads to guys trying to pass the ball off.
5 - poor foot skills from the guys delivering ball into i50
On my stats we were 7th for marks inside 50 [12], but i reckon if you looked at marks inside 25 we would be bottom. We take a lot from long range which obviously means you miss a lot.
I'm of the view that without quality forwards you can have a great midfield and lot of i50's
In a nutshell SBF! Very nice summary.
sbf, I know it's not trendy, I know it's probably daggy, but I have no faith that Casboult will fix his kicking now. He's been on the list 5, 6 seasons, plus the NB's before that, plus x years of junior footy, and still these chronic problems persist. I should also add, somewhat comically, that the Hawks under Clarkson didn't have all that recent success by following trends.
The FF in the goal square doesn't have to be every second of every game. I've said before Levi is great as a target after a behind is scored, on the wing etc. He could easily play a few different roles - just nothing that involves kicking for goal between 20-50m from goal.
Other teams know Casboult will be a nightmare in the goal square. It's takes his big Achilles heel out of the equation. He's an elite mark. He can easily hold his own in the rough stuff. He will never be left one on one in the goal square. He'll have at least 2, maybe 3 defenders watching him, because from there he'll mark anything and won't miss. He can even be used as a decoy if required. The F50 setup is critical - we need the 2nd and 3rd talls, and the goal sneaks all set up correctly. The ball delivery needs to be suited to the play. Flat and short to the 2nd and 3rd talls further away from goal. Higher and more helicopter style if going to the goal square, pricnially to avoid being picked off as an intercept by a defender.
I say we try it for a few games - it's not as if we're putting our flag chances in jeopardy by doing so.
re potential to kick his kicking issues...
I've said the same thing. If he hasn't done it by now, the chance of it happening and close enough to zero that you might as well call it zero.
Given that he is actually not a bad field kick, and given he is a VERY good grab of the ball, why not play him as a PURE ruckman, rather than a part time ruckman?
Work in a way to have Casboult ruck from the defensive half of the ground, and Kreuzer to ruck the forward half of the ground.
That way Casboult can pick off any long bombs into defense and bash and crash a few opposition forwards.
and
Kreuzer can drift forward and take the odd grab and kick a goal. His defensive pressure will help lock the ball in our forward line too.
If one gets injured, his replacement is already there.
Of course we need to worry about finding ONE KPF, before we worry about finding TWO, but that can be next years problem.
So we can add you to the list of people who don''t like my "Cas in the goal square" idea ?
So we can add you to the list of people who don''t like my "Cas in the goal square" idea ?
Sure can.
I think the further away from the goalsquare the better.....even if that means he's at preston!
Sure can.
I think the further away from the goalsquare the better.....even if that means he's at preston!
Very cheeky.
Oh well, despite the thumbs down, I still like the idea, and I think it has merit.
I liked Casboult's work around the ground last weekend.
I think that where he provides us with the most value... with the occasional drift to the goal square to keep the defenders on their toes.
I liked Casboult's work around the ground last weekend.
I think that where he provides us with the most value... with the occasional drift to the goal square to keep the defenders on their toes.
As LP intimated, we sat 13th for I50's last season, 12th for marks I50, then 17th for goals, 15th for behinds.
We're simply not getting enough return for those entries. Again I ask, is it because of bad goal kicking, bad entries that make scoring harder etc. ?
Just on the entries, our fwds either lead too much to, or we get pushed towards, the pockets alot. So that appears (to me at least) where alot of our shots are taken from which are a higher degree of difficulty. Is that our fwd structure breakdown down/being flawed? Or is it a ploy by teams against us? Having said that, we seem to miss a lot of getable ones directly in front also.
Just on the entries, our fwds either lead too much to, or we get pushed towards, the pockets a lot. So that appears (to me at least) where a lot of our shots are taken from which are a higher degree of difficulty. Is that our fwd structure breakdown down/being flawed? Or is it a ploy by teams against us? Having said that, we seem to miss a lot of get-able ones directly in front also.
So many things to fix, so little time.
Just on the entries, our fwds either lead too much to, or we get pushed towards, the pockets alot. So that appears (to me at least) where alot of our shots are taken from which are a higher degree of difficulty. Is that our fwd structure breakdown down/being flawed? Or is it a ploy by teams against us? Having said that, we seem to miss a lot of getable ones directly in front also.
Good Points..Totally Agree...the reason players like Dickson and Membrey are so accurate is they never get too far away from the goals and in Dicksons case always seem to be doubling back into the corridor and having shots from in front of goal.
You wait and see vs Richmond.....having Rance in the corridor near goal will force our blokes wide into the pockets unless Bolton has some plan to take him out of the game, am sick of seeing intercept marking players dining out on our inability to provide and hit targets because we bomb the ball due to congested forward lines, then other teams rebound and have so much space up forward with our blokes caught too far forward and players like Martin are one out and running back towards goal when the ball gets kicked over our players heads.....
Good Points..Totally Agree...the reason players like Dickson and Membrey are so accurate is they never get too far away from the goals and in Dicksons case always seem to be doubling back into the corridor and having shots from in front of goal.
You wait and see vs Richmond.....having Rance in the corridor near goal will force our blokes wide into the pockets unless Bolton has some plan to take him out of the game, am sick of seeing intercept marking players dining out on our inability to provide and hit targets because we bomb the ball due to congested forward lines, then other teams rebound and have so much space up forward with our blokes caught too far forward and players like Martin are one out and running back towards goal when the ball gets kicked over our players heads.....
Not sure about Bolton, but i've got one.
Kick it high about 1m in front of Rance.....clear space for Casboult to run at the ball. Make the ball his secondary focus.
Rance problem solved.
>:D
Not sure about Bolton, but i've got one.
Kick it high about 1m in front of Rance.....clear space for Casboult to run at the ball. Make the ball his secondary focus.
Rance problem solved.
>:D
IMO, the net result of that is giving away a free, possibly a report for Cas and no goal. If we put Cas in the goal square one on one v Rance, we'll get a goal, without giving away a free or getting reported.
Not sure about Bolton, but i've got one.
Kick it high about 1m in front of Rance.....clear space for Casboult to run at the ball. Make the ball his secondary focus.
Rance problem solved.
>:D
I'm all for the Bolt being physical and upsetting Rance...and a few others, he doesnt throw his weight around often enough and
a few sore Richmond players looking over their shoulders would create more space for others to operate in.
I hope Bolton can broaden the Bolts mind to be more than a mark and kick player....
IMO, the net result of that is giving away a free, possibly a report for Cas and no goal. If we put Cas in the goal square one on one v Rance, we'll get a goal, without giving away a free or getting reported.
Paul...Think we have tried that....it never ends up being one on one as we are too slow and other teams get the numbers back and its the Bolt vs 3-4 players and we lack the skill to sit the ball right for the Bolt to use his extra height when it is one on one.
Paul...Think we have tried that....it never ends up being one on one as we are too slow and other teams get the numbers back and its the Bolt vs 3-4 players and we lack the skill to sit the ball right for the Bolt to use his extra height when it is one on one.
Yes, as I said elsewhere, there's lots of things to fix. Reckon Cas could out mark two players ala Fev, but we need to anticipate that he can't mark everything, and we need forwards that can make sure the defense doesn't mark it - so spoiling, creating a contested situation, defensive type forwards that can lock the ball in etc. As you say, the ease with which the defense runs the ball out of our F50 is infuriating.
IMO, the net result of that is giving away a free, possibly a report for Cas and no goal. If we put Cas in the goal square one on one v Rance, we'll get a goal, without giving away a free or getting reported.
...and a possibly injury to Rance...and guaranteed to second guess himself the next time he's put in a similar situation.
Sometimes you lose the battle, but win the war. ;)
Why do you think Tony Lockett and Gary Ablett Sr used to get reported for running through blokes? To let them know that this is there space and if you get in it, that will be the result. Its amazing how few opponents would do it a 2nd time. ;)
As long as Casboult as eyes for the ball all's fair in a marking contest.
Unless he's attacking the pill at full boar he's useless, need him to scare the opposition defenders with the possibility of what he might do. Dont underestimate intimidation in our game, protects our kids and mids around the ground.
...and a possibly injury to Rance...and guaranteed to second guess himself the next time he's put in a similar situation.
Sometimes you lose the battle, but win the war. ;)
Why do you think Tony Lockett and Gary Ablett Sr used to get reported for running through blokes? To let them know that this is there space and if you get in it, that will be the result. Its amazing how few opponents would do it a 2nd time. ;)
Well, Cas isn't either of those two blokes, and I doubt the club would look the other way, as they do with stars. He's just been given a one year extension, the club has invested x amount of time and money in the off season reemploying Rocca etc. to try and finally fix his issues. I'm not sure they would look too kindly on him getting done for a couple of weeks. That might just about finish him as far as playing seniors is concerned. Which may not be a bad thing.
As long as Casboult as eyes for the ball all's fair in a marking contest.
Unless he's attacking the pill at full boar he's useless, need him to scare the opposition defenders with the possibility of what he might do. Dont underestimate intimidation in our game, protects our kids and mids around the ground.
I'm not sure he's clever enough to disguise such a tactic.
You've spelled Professor incorrectly.
Any forward who doesn't attack the ball hard shouldnt be at senior level.
The spelling prevents being spammed.
Any forward who doesn't attack the ball hard shouldnt be at senior level.
The spelling prevents being spammed.
I have no issue with him or anyone attacking the ball hard.
For all we know, the only reason they gave Cas 1 year is to provide a bit of muscle for Harry Mac et al, as they enter their first / second season of senior footy. They may not have, and never have had, any intention of giving Cas anything beyond 2017, irrespective of what he produces on the field.
I've never received spam from csc. I thought you weren't aware of the typo. My bad.
No biggie.
The TV isn't always the best way to watch the footy but it highlights one aspect - watch the big pack situations when a ball gets bombed in long and high, you'll soon see which defenders have eyes that are darting around in directions other than the ball. There's a few of them in the AFL, one who I can recall attempting to hurt Casboult in a pack but who came off second best!
No biggie.
The TV isn't always the best way to watch the footy but it highlights one aspect - watch the big pack situations when a ball gets bombed in long and high, you'll soon see which defenders have eyes that are darting around in directions other than the ball. There's a few of them in the AFL, one who I can recall attempting to hurt Casboult in a pack but who came off second best!
Thanks matey.
Well, the edgy, nervous defenders will be even more so with the ball kicked in high and deep to the top of the goal square, and with a good forward set up. Whilst such a kick gives the defense time to run back and set up, it also gives our 2nd and 3rd talls and small crumbers the chance to do exactly the same. If our forwards are set up correctly, with the right personnel, then the only real options for the defense is to go for a clean mark. The forwards should be set up to anticipate and ideally intercept the punch out of bounds, the attempt to spoil etc. The 2nd and 3rd talls should be set up as outriggers in the F50 to anticipate kicks from our blokes that fall short, or kicks out of defense that do the same. I can keep going, but the point I'm making is that those F50 entries are precious, and we need to be manic about keeping the ball in there. The defenders will always be tempted to infringe when they feel cornered and with no options.
Well, Cas isn't either of those two blokes, and I doubt the club would look the other way, as they do with stars. He's just been given a one year extension, the club has invested x amount of time and money in the off season reemploying Rocca etc. to try and finally fix his issues. I'm not sure they would look too kindly on him getting done for a couple of weeks. That might just about finish him as far as playing seniors is concerned. Which may not be a bad thing.
The club should be encouraging that from Casboult, not discouraging it.
His issues can be fixed with or without my scenario happening. Its not one or the other.
His greatest asset besides his marking ability is his body size/shape and the physicality that brings with it.
We are not playing netball. Use that strength of his to our advantage and take out the oppositions greatest strength.
I'd take a report from him every year if it means we see that aggression out of him regularly
The club should be encouraging that from Casboult, not discouraging it.
His issues can be fixed with or without my scenario happening. Its not one or the other.
His greatest asset besides his marking ability is his body size/shape and the physicality that brings with it.
We are not playing netball. Use that strength of his to our advantage and take out the oppositions greatest strength.
I'd take a report from him every year if it means we see that aggression out of him regularly
Physicality done right, without getting reported is fine with me. As I see it, the more games he plays, the more goals he kicks, the greater chance he has of hanging around. The more games he plays, the more of a chop out he can give to the young blokes. If he gets reported twice, that's between 3-5 weeks out of the game. As I said earlier, I'm not sure he can do it in a clever enough way. And going from memory, I don't think his tribunal record is all that great. If someone can confirm. I'd appreciate that.
Quite apart from anything above, from the evidence thus far in the JLT series, we can barely clear the ball from a stoppage without turning it over. Based on this, we are so far away from worrying about rough stuff, perhaps this discussion is moot.
Quite apart from anything above, from the evidence thus far in the JLT series, we can barely clear the ball from a stoppage without turning it over. Based on this, we are so far away from worrying about rough stuff, perhaps this discussion is moot.
Yes the road to the premiership is indeed a very hard one - we don't appear to even be on it, we're on the road to somewhere else it seems?
Yes the road to the premiership is indeed a very hard one - we don't appear to even be on it, we're on the road to somewhere else it seems?
The thing is, you cannot keep finishing last and turning over large numbers of players.
If you do your fate is sealed, because to succeed in the AFL the first thing you need is a team, and you don't form a team by turning over 1/3 of the list every post-season.
You have to show some direction to attract decent middle tier players, at the moment can someone tell me what is our direction, where is our plan?
The thing is, you cannot keep finishing last and turning over large numbers of players.
If you do your fate is sealed, because to succeed in the AFL the first thing you need is a team, and you don't form a team by turning over 1/3 of the list every post-season.
You have to show some direction to attract decent middle tier players, at the moment can someone tell me what is our direction, where is our plan?
I agree.
Our middle tier lacks any quality, I could name about 20 blokes in this part of the list and they're all rubbish at AFL level.
That's why we are crap. A few top enders, a few talented kids and the rest are boat anchors making up the numbers and taking match payments under false pretences.
Players like Levi, Jaksch and Jones are the reason we won't attract a star or good middle tier player, they see the hurt when the hard earned opportunities are burned.
Make no mistake, nobody likes their hard work being wasted!
The problem with the road to the premiership is that it's filled with a lot of forks.
It can be a rocky road and as we approach each fork we see that one path looks a bit rough and worn and another shiny and new.
We choose the shiny new path only to see it turn into a bog a few miles down the track.
But sometimes you have to push on through that bog a little longer to get back onto the bitumen again. ;)
My concern is not so much that we won't improve this year as the fact that we can't afford not to show some positive signs...because as a club we're running out of road.
My concern is not so much that we won't improve this year as the fact that we can't afford not to show some positive signs...because as a club we're running out of road.
Exactly!
We are exactly where many in the AFL want us. Furthermore Fitzpatrick did us no favours when he had the opportunity to repeat the bias exhibited by his predecessors like Evans, Kennedy and Oakley.
Do people think the success of CheastFC, Dawks and Crows was an accident?
Fitzpatrick stupidly thought doing the right thing would judge him kindly, but his counterparts are laughing behind his back! Success and strength in the AFL only comes with a little help, like the help CheatsFC is now receiving!
The problem with the road to the premiership is that it's filled with a lot of forks.
It can be a rocky road and as we approach each fork we see that one path looks a bit rough and worn and another shiny and new.
We choose the shiny new path only to see it turn into a bog a few miles down the track.
But sometimes you have to push on through that bog a little longer to get back onto the bitumen again. ;)
My concern is not so much that we won't improve this year as the fact that we can't afford not to show some positive signs...because as a club we're running out of road.
I've heard of methadone overdose, but this is new - metaphor overdose.............
Just kidding lods.
I've heard of methadone overdose, but this is new - metaphor overdose.............
Just kidding lods.
You should have seen it before I trimmed it.... Hobbits trolls dragons!!! ;D
You should have seen it before I trimmed it.... Hobbits trolls dragons!!! ;D
The ability to self edit is an important one on these forums.
The problem with the road to the premiership is that it's filled with a lot of forks.
It can be a rocky road and as we approach each fork we see that one path looks a bit rough and worn and another shiny and new.
We choose the shiny new path only to see it turn into a bog a few miles down the track.
But sometimes you have to push on through that bog a little longer to get back onto the bitumen again. ;)
My concern is not so much that we won't improve this year as the fact that we can't afford not to show some positive signs...because as a club we're running out of road.
Whatever road we are on Lods, seems like we are riding in the Deadwood Stage unfortunately. (See my post in the other game thread).
The ability to self edit is an important one on these forums.
That takes all the fun out of it!
Imagine the bar at the local Pub or RSL if you could edit your comments?
Boring! :D
Whatever road we are on Lods, seems like we are riding in the Deadwood Stage unfortunately. (See my post in the other game thread).
Wasn't a bad coach :D
Which is kind of brings us to the point..... Bolton needs to get us going before he gets it in the back ""Wild Bill Hickock" style.
It's not something I'm advocating... but it's what will happen if it takes too long.
I have no faith we will stay as patient as some are suggesting in the face of continued poor performances.
This stuff at the moment doesn't matter...but if it transfers into the season proper we will have a real problem keeping it together.
Wasn't a bad coach :D
Which is kind of brings us to the point..... Bolton needs to get us going before he gets it in the back ""Wild Bill Hickock" style.
It's not something I'm advocating... but it's what will happen if it takes too long.
I have no faith we will stay as patient as some are suggesting in the face of continued poor performances.
This stuff at the moment doesn't matter...but if it transfers into the season proper we will have a real problem keeping it together.
Yes, if we are still showing this low level of intensity by R10 then I'm sure some serious questions will be being asked. A bit early yet to start majorly worrying but I can't help feeling somewhat concerned.
Wasn't a bad coach :D
Which is kind of brings us to the point..... Bolton needs to get us going before he gets it in the back ""Wild Bill Hickock" style.
It's not something I'm advocating... but it's what will happen if it takes too long.
I have no faith we will stay as patient as some are suggesting in the face of continued poor performances.
This stuff at the moment doesn't matter...but if it transfers into the season proper we will have a real problem keeping it together.
Actually a poster on another site said he spoke to a former player today. Said Bolts was very good at turning kids into much better kids but not so good at turning them into senior footballers. Hope he's wrong.
Actually a poster on another site said he spoke to a former player today. Said Bolts was very good at turning kids into much better kids but not so good at turning them into senior footballers. Hope he's wrong.
Yep ....because that's how it starts.
Little snippets like that become more frequent.
Rumours of disquiet in the club start to appear in the press.
Supporters start to question certain aspects of the handling of the team and relay those to the club....and so it goes, slowly building momentum.
Pressure builds.
The only way to short circuit it is to start to show significant improvement otherwise the coach is under siege.
That's why it is so important that this practice match form is not indicative of our coming season.
Actually a poster on another site said he spoke to a former player today. Said Bolts was very good at turning kids into much better kids but not so good at turning them into senior footballers. Hope he's wrong.
Bolton is still learning his trade, he needs to grow as a coach like the players have to grow and develop....not an easy job for anyone after Hughes, Rogers and MM screwed up the list...
Bolton is still learning his trade, he needs to grow as a coach like the players have to grow and develop....not an easy job for anyone after Hughes, Rogers and MM screwed up the list...
Not necessarily agreeing but thought i'd pass it on. We're gradually moving on the crap and bringing in what looks like good kids.
Still, if we played a season like the last couple of weeks then he'd have a huge issue but last year's pre-season was pretty terrible then we won 6 games during the first half of the year.
Yep...to be clear
We all hope and expect Bolton to be successful.
But he is in a delicately balanced battle against time.
He has to demonstrate that things are on track and that means we have to see some apparent improvements.
We shouldn't fall into the trap of believing that because the club says this is a "slow deliberate work in progress" that everyone will accept that.
The club can only guide expectations, they can't control them.
SOS did say preseason that it's not necessarily a straight line of improvement. GWS 3 wins year 1. 1 win in year 2.
SOS did say preseason that it's not necessarily a straight line of improvement. GWS 3 wins year 1. 1 win in year 2.
yes - look at Bomber Thompson's coaching record at Geelong.
SOS did say preseason that it's not necessarily a straight line of improvement. GWS 3 wins year 1. 1 win in year 2.
True
The problem is that although we know this is just the second year of a reset, for many Carlton folk it's about year 15-20.
SOS did say preseason that it's not necessarily a straight line of improvement. GWS 3 wins year 1. 1 win in year 2.
Thats pretty much my line of thinking.
I never expected much from this season. If we were about where we were last season, then thats about right. Anything better is a bonus.
I expect NEXT year to start showing signs of our radical improvement.
....assuming we actually try and improve our forward line this off-season.
SOS did say preseason that it's not necessarily a straight line of improvement. GWS 3 wins year 1. 1 win in year 2.
Its funny really, when BB started this gig, everyone pretty much understood and accepted that:
- we were starting from ground zero
- it was rebuild or reset
- no short cuts or quick fixes
- it was going to take time
- there would be ups and downs
- there was a plan that would not be deviated from
Here we are, start of year 2, a couple of ordinary praccy matches and people are already lining him up for the knife.
How quick some forget, its year 2 people, give it a fair go. Yes we saw some unexpected good signs last year, that didnt mean we were going to make the 8 this year.
Patience my friends, it will make the good times ahead more enjoyable.
Lack of effort and intensity though are worrying signs. Let's hope things improve in these areas.
Let's not sugar coat it. This team sucks.
Thomas, kicks more out on the full than to a team mate.
Kerridge, is a bigger turnover merchant than Mitch Robinson ever was.
Liam Jones, took his screamer, he's done for the year now.
These are AFL players who cannot handball or kick to a team mate, and on what seemed to be rare occasions, the ball got to a Carlton player on the full then we struggled to hold the mark. I lost count of how many Weitering dropped and Marchbank was the same.
People are drawing comparisons to GWS, why? We don't have the wealth of talent, what we do have is a supporter base that is ready to be patient, however they do want effort. I don't want to see Cripps just sauntering after his opponent down a wing, or Boekhurst choosing when to run hard. I want Zac Fisher type effort. This little boy is like a terrier, he is after the ball, or the man and if he gets knocked down he's up.
Why was Murphy rested? He only played half last year, isn't that rest enough. He looked rusty as all get out last wee. I understand a Kreuzer or Simpson having the week off, but the way it looks he plays a week, gets a week off plays another week then gets a rest again before round 1. How do you get touch this way?
I know it's a practise round and I know it's common practise to rest the senior players for your second game but we have 40,000 members now and on the back of the past two games where is the incentive to want to commit to a membership where you go every week to watch a couple give effort but most just not good enough.
I like what I saw of MacCreadie and Marchbank (dropped marks aside) looks A grade and Plowman will become a Peter Dean type back there. Notice they are all backmen because anyone forward of centre didn't see the ball.
Very disappointing.
yes - look at Bomber Thompson's coaching record at Geelong.
Once The Weapon and Danky got started their fortunes sky-rocketed! ;)
I think most accept that rebuilds take time and when turning over so many of the list over a short period of time, you can't expect success before a lot of pain.
My beef and I'm sure others agree is the so called senior players that skill set is appauling.
Thomas, white, kerridge are not AFL standard. These 3 in particular turned it over time and time again and missed targets local players would hit.
Practice match or not we have been hammered 2 weeks
In a row and when your a proud club starved of success and trying to build belief within supporters and inturn get membership numbers to grow.... well blind freddie can tell you watching that crap today doesn't do the club in any shape or form any favors on any front.
Actually a poster on another site said he spoke to a former player today. Said Bolts was very good at turning kids into much better kids but not so good at turning them into senior footballers. Hope he's wrong.
Not directed at you laj. But how many times has Bolts had the opportunity to turn kids into senior footballers?
Local footy aside, he's only in pre-primary.... We need to give him a go. Pretty sure that's what the Neil Craig appointment was about. Bolts is exactly what our club needed IMO. Put the likes of SOS and Juddy in the mix and, well, anythings possible.
Bolton is still learning his trade, he needs to grow as a coach like the players have to grow and develop....not an easy job for anyone after Hughes, Rogers and MM screwed up the list...
On the latter, whom was recently knighted by our arch enemy :o
We've cleared the clog of the Tutts, Smiths, Whileys et al. We've still to bide time with the love child, KJ, and perhaps others. Boeky, may add to that list - but I'm happy to give him this year. I've likely missed some.
We're coming from further behind than the guards van thanks to this legacy. Add in the games the club (board etc) has played, and you're in a big hole.
I'm behind Bolts 100%. I'd really hope others can resist the urge of throwing the baby out with the bath water. Unlike his predecessor (quote "can't see us losing a game" :o), he's made it crystal clear this is a REBUILD.
In recent times, rather than compare ourselves to GWS, we can look at the saints. If we follow in a similar vein, we're there abouts. As far as the club goes, we're certainly heading in the right direction. Enter the likes of Juddy and we'll start to see daylight in the coming year or two.
I'm behind Bolts 100%. I'd really hope others can resist the urge of throwing the baby out with the bath water. Unlike his predecessor (quote "can't see us losing a game" :o), he's made it crystal clear this is a REBUILD.
Im behind Bolts as much as the next bloke but to be fair, Im fairly sure MM was taking the piss at journos (ie tongue in cheek) when he made the comment.
On the latter, whom was recently knighted by our arch enemy :o
We've cleared the clog of the Tutts, Smiths, Whileys et al. We've still to bide time with the love child, KJ, and perhaps others. Boeky, may add to that list - but I'm happy to give him this year. I've likely missed some.
We're coming from further behind than the guards van thanks to this legacy. Add in the games the club (board etc) has played, and you're in a big hole.
I'm behind Bolts 100%. I'd really hope others can resist the urge of throwing the baby out with the bath water. Unlike his predecessor (quote "can't see us losing a game" :o), he's made it crystal clear this is a REBUILD.
In recent times, rather than compare ourselves to GWS, we can look at the saints. If we follow in a similar vein, we're there abouts. As far as the club goes, we're certainly heading in the right direction. Enter the likes of Juddy and we'll start to see daylight in the coming year or two.
Agree...said before the Saints and Dees were woeful for 2-3 year at the start of their rebuilds but have now got their act together....its about being patient and expecting heavy losses but not dwelling on them and tryingto see the positives...its hard to cop I know but there is no easy fix and success starved fans will start to get nervous.
Its a bit like investing in shares and looking at the long term but expecting volatility along the way and riding the bumps....question is do we have enough fans/members and club officials prepared to ride out the bumps without giving into media pressures and short term thinking.
I like bolts too, he's a no nonsense level headed guy that is a realist.
His message is monotonous not so much from a young playing group, that need it drilled into them, but from a commercial point of view
The market will want to see net gains, save for occasional setbacks.
For perspective, most of this list, weren't in kindergarten when we first started our rebuild!
I hope i don't end up like vic dibitteto this year
Im behind Bolts as much as the next bloke but to be fair, Im fairly sure MM was taking the piss at journos (ie tongue in cheek) when he made the comment.
I get that GIC.
Unfortunately for us, and not mm, the footy world was laughing at CFC. I know that stevo isn't the brightest journo (I.e. no idea what a question is), but he effortlessly provoked responses that were nothing short of defensive (as in ego) and incompetent. Senior coaches should have no trouble facing the media in the modern era. Yet, that's not what was delivered whilst in our club's employ. For mine, as painful as it was watching us get annihilated, I felt more anxious during the post match. I expect we'll find out what was really going on in years to come. I have some ideas of what that book will be titled ;)
I get that GIC.
Unfortunately for us, and not mm, the footy world was laughing at CFC. I know that stevo isn't the brightest journo (I.e. no idea what a question is), but he effortlessly provoked responses that were nothing short of defensive (as in ego) and incompetent. Senior coaches should have no trouble facing the media in the modern era. Yet, that's not what was delivered whilst in our club's employ. For mine, as painful as it was watching us get annihilated, I felt more anxious during the post match. I expect we'll find out what was really going on in years to come. I have some ideas of what that book will be titled ;)
The Journo Is Slow, But the Coach is Impatient (and Cranky).
That comment about not seeing where we can lose a game was the best thing Mick said in his time with us. It's obviously not to be taken literally, and obviously trying to engender a positive mood among players and supporters.
Th point was "If you go in thinking you will lose, then you're behind the 8 ball to begin with."
Why all the fuss over a nothing, harmless, throwaway line ?
Lesson learned - don't give the media any extra ammunition. It's bound to come back and bite you on the ar$e.
Not directed at you laj. But how many times has Bolts had the opportunity to turn kids into senior footballers?
Local footy aside, he's only in pre-primary.... We need to give him a go. Pretty sure that's what the Neil Craig appointment was about. Bolts is exactly what our club needed IMO. Put the likes of SOS and Juddy in the mix and, well, anythings possible.
Neil Craig, there is your problem!
Neil Craig, there is your problem!
Not a good mentor??
Not a good mentor??
Depends who he mentors. The reports I have is that he spends a lot of time with 1AW and Capuano to mentor the kids, in that case no, because if we judge him by the same criteria many judged Ratten then Craig is a failed AFL coach despite his finals success. We have to be consistent!
If he mentors Bolton, as long as he isn't doing a Malthouse and undermining Bolton, then it's a good role for him!
I'm deadly serious about that undermining comment, AFL is full of egomaniacs and psychopaths who think they should have the top job! Why does that worry me? Craig's ability to survive football club coups is a real worry, that reminds me of others we've had at Carlton relative to those we lost or moved on. It's often the finger-pointers and backstabber's that survive the first cull, because a lot of their effort goes into managing their own position. They are often Garry Lyon types, all talk, opinion, criticism and no action, their victims are often Fevola or Brownless types who are focussed on the job and never know what's happening until the bus hits them! Often it's the good people that walk away!
Depends who he mentors. The reports I have is that he spends a lot of time with 1AW and Capuano to mentor the kids, in that case no, because if we judge him by the same criteria many judged Ratten then Craig is a failed AFL coach despite his finals success. We have to be consistent!
If he mentors Bolton, as long as he isn't doing a Malthouse and undermining Bolton, then it's a good role for him!
I'm deadly serious about that undermining comment, AFL is full of egomaniacs and psychopaths who think they should have the top job! Why does that worry me? Craig's ability to survive football club coups is a real worry, that reminds me of others we've had at Carlton relative to those we lost or moved on. It's often the finger-pointers and backstabber's that survive the first cull, because a lot of their effort goes into managing their own position. They are often Garry Lyon types, all talk, opinion, criticism and no action, their victims are often Fevola or Brownless types who are focussed on the job and never know what's happening until the bus hits them! Often it's the good people that walk away!
I get all that LP but I honestly can't see NC having a desire to be top dog and therefore undermine the senior coach. He is doing the role now he always wanted, still involved in football day to day but imparting his teaching, development and high performance experience training.
Every club Neil Craig goes to prospers only when he leaves, said this before but what numptie plays Taylor Walker in the SANFL for most of the season....Craig hasnt got a clue IMO and is past his use by date...
Hmmmm some very interesting comments. Can't say I'm familiar with his career. Thankyou.
It sounds like it depends on the breadth of his role.
I can imagine though, as LP pointed out, the battle of the ego's. This phenomenon is present in arguably all large organizations. And yes, has a most powerful and often toxifying effect on culture. I can see that in our recent history >:D
To stay positive, I hope that Bolts get whatever he needs to develop to his potential.
Every club Neil Craig goes to prospers only when he leaves, said this before but what numptie plays Taylor Walker in the SANFL for most of the season....Craig hasnt got a clue IMO and is past his use by date...
There's that age argument again ::)
There are a number of reasons why Walker was played in the SANFL back then, the main was probably that he was immature, lazy, flog. Thankfully, the penny dropped for him before it was too late.
There's that age argument again ::)
There are a number of reasons why Walker was played in the SANFL back then, the main was probably that he was immature, lazy, flog. Thankfully, the penny dropped for him before it was too late.
Craigs history speaks for itself.....apart from his hometown Crows, the only gigs he could get were with bottom teams Melbourne, Essendon and us.....no decent teams wanted him
We need a winning ex coach as coaching Director not a perennial loser like Craig whose finals winning record was only 33% and IMO he was/is a poor tactician...Bolton is a novice coach and needs better
than Craig helping him out...
Craigs history speaks for itself.....apart from his hometown Crows, the only gigs he could get were with bottom teams Melbourne, Essendon and us.....no decent teams wanted him
We need a winning ex coach as coaching Director not a perennial loser like Craig whose finals winning record was only 33% and IMO he was/is a poor tactician...Bolton is a novice coach and needs better
than Craig helping him out...
You would think that Juddy will be looking to get the best possible people on board in the Footy Dept when he takes over as Footy Director. He would know all about NC.
You would think that Juddy will be looking to get the best possible people on board in the Footy Dept when he takes over as Footy Director. He would know all about NC.
We don't really have a "Director of Football"
I understand Judd is to replace Bear Gleeson on the board, Gleeson's board portfolio is List Management.
Carlton's football executive if we have one is basically a panel with Gleeson, Mathieson, Trigg, McKay, Bolton, Silvagni and Craig.
Craigs history speaks for itself.....apart from his hometown Crows, the only gigs he could get were with bottom teams Melbourne, Essendon and us.....no decent teams wanted him
We need a winning ex coach as coaching Director not a perennial loser like Craig whose finals winning record was only 33% and IMO he was/is a poor tactician...Bolton is a novice coach and needs better
than Craig helping him out...
So if you read my post, I mentioned nothing about tactics etc, I referred to his teaching/development skills and high performance training credentials, the latter being unquestionable. I think he is a good fit for us given his role so lets just agree to disagree on this one.
As a matter of interest, who would you suggest would be a better option?
You would think that Juddy will be looking to get the best possible people on board in the Footy Dept when he takes over as Footy Director. He would know all about NC.
Fair point Cookie, be interesting to see if he makes a move on this when he comes on board.
My expectation is that Juddy will either request, or be given some authority (be it in a different role or not) to fill gaps with the right people. He'll also attract people by nature of his elite unique contribution to the sport. That will be a little bonus for the club. There may even be some changes in roles to respond to the rebuild environment, which likely varies from the 'there abouts' environment. Of course, I don't have a clue, but it's fun thinking through the issues we face, and hearing from fellow passionate supporters ;D
We don't really have a "Director of Football"
I understand Judd is to replace Bear Gleeson on the board, Gleeson's board portfolio is List Management.
Carlton's football executive if we have one is basically a panel with Gleeson, Mathieson, Trigg, McKay, Bolton, Silvagni and Craig.
Judd was reported in the Hun as returning to CFC in the capacity of Football Director. I recall the article being posted on this site by Kruddler.
I may be wrong but ....I think the position won't be so much a "real hands on one" but he will be the Director with oversight of the football department.
Judd was reported in the Hun as returning to CFC in the capacity of Football Director. I recall the article being posted on this site by Kruddler.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/afl/afl-news/chris-judd-to-return-to-carlton-blues-as-football-director-20170220-guhau4.html
I think the position won't be so much a "real hands on one" but he will be the Director with oversight of the football department.
He will certainly be "active" if my understanding of the man is correct. I can't see him just being there to enjoy the G and Ts. :)
According to the CFC website, Gleeson's board portfolio is List Management.
Very cryptic.
EDIT : as stated by LP.
He will certainly be "active" if my understanding of the man is correct. I can't see him just being there to enjoy the G and Ts. :)
The thing is that we have specific people in the football department roles.
We don't want Judd trying to do everyone's job or we'll be heading for conflict.
Andrew McKay is the man in charge of the day to day football operations...a Director is more of an oversight position rather than a hands on one.
We have no Football Director, that is were the article is going wrong;
Judd, who has signed a three-year deal said current football director Adrian Gleeson would hand over to him at the end of the footy season,
Gleeson has "List Management" as part of his board concerns, a role he shares with Mathieson. In effect they have oversight on recruiting, not staff appointments.
Perhaps The Judge has created a new role for Judd, I think if I recall correctly the Board has the discretion to appoint up to two people to the board. Judd may be one of the few appointments they could make that would not be seen as a backwards step.
The thing is that we have specific people in the football department roles.
We don't want Judd trying to do everyone's job or we'll be heading for conflict.
Andrew McKay is the man in charge of the day to day football operations...a Director is more of an oversight position rather than a hands on one.
Sure but he will be hopefully keeping an eye on things and ensuring all is well. If this is not the case he will highlight this to the board for action - isn't that what we want??
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/afl/afl-news/chris-judd-to-return-to-carlton-blues-as-football-director-20170220-guhau4.html
Thanks for that Paul - that was the one I was thinking of.
Here's why we need to wait just that little bit longer to have some success :
THE CARLTON COLTS (UNDER 21's)
Proven Senior Players
- Jacob Weitering
Shown Glimpses
- Jack Silvagni
- Sam Petrevski-Seton
- Caleb Marchbank
- Harrison Macreadie
- David Cuningham
- Charlie Curnow
Yet To Salute
- Harry McKay
- Zac Fisher
- Cameron Polson
- Tom Williamson
- Pat Kerr
Here's why we need to wait just that little bit longer to have some success :
THE CARLTON COLTS (UNDER 21's)
Proven Senior Players
- Jacob Weitering
Shown Glimpses
- Jack Silvagni
- Sam Petrevski-Seton
- Caleb Marchbank
- Harrison Macreadie
- David Cuningham
- Charlie Curnow
Yet To Salute
- Harry McKay
- Zac Fisher
- Cameron Polson
- Tom Williamson
- Pat Kerr
Sack the lot of them.
Sack the lot of them.
Beat me to it Krudd, I was going to say it looked like Back, Sacked and Cracked list to me ;D