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Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1350
Problem with that analysis is lock downs simply don't work.

That is the indisputable empirical evidence globally.

Irrespective of the efficacy of the contact and quarantining regime - which clearly either wasn't happening or was failing badly when Dopey finally realised the hotel quarantine 'system' had failed.
Finals, then 4 in a row!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1351
Worth a read.

https://mises.org/wire/evidence-keeps-piling-lockdowns-dont-work


All we need to do is (then and now):

1. Have an efficient, quick contact tracing system - not fax based (lunacy) - allowing us to identify & quarantine the 'infected' quickly.
2. Wash hands regularly.
3. Social distance sensibly.
4. Wear a mask if you're sick (or showing symptoms) and need to go out.

5. Oh and HCQ works! c19study.com   (give it early and in the right dosage!)



Game over.

No need to shut down every bloody business in the State.





Finals, then 4 in a row!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1352
One thing is certain.  Anthony Fauci is a dangerous idiot as far as HCQ goes. 



Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1353
Actually I completely disagree that lockdowns are not effective.
I don't disagree that there are alternative options as well that can be employed, such as mandatory social distancing and masks etc, I also believe that lockdowns come at a considerable cost and this needs to be weighed up against the impact of this costs, not just in financial terms.

But the lockdowns and the previous mandate on masks had very predictable impacts on the new infections seen each day. The data is clearly there to analyse, though I questions who is doing the governments analysis at times.

What worries me more, is that there is a time when lockdowns are the most effective way to get the virus to a manageable level so that allows the economy to restart, but also allows people to live a version of their life that at least resembles normal and there is a time where lockdowns are like cracking a egg with a sledgehammer. This government at the moment seems to have no concept on just how important reaching the stage where people have this semi normal life. Now it might be now as some say, it might be around the 15 cases a day mark that is closer to what I personally believe, but it is almost certainly not the <5 the government is now suggesting.

This number (less than 5 per day) is a number not seen in the state since May 2nd, that can't be the benchmark.
Some areas of regional Victoria have not seen cases in many months, there is no flexibility to the plan of the state government (imo).

I won't comment on hcq so much, other than to say, if this was a proven effective treatment, there would be a number of countries using it regularly. There are no doubt reasons this is not being recommended, so I won't get into any conspiracy theories on such a topic as that does not interest me.
Goals for 2017
=============
Play the most anti-social football in the AFL


Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1354
Imo Dan is prolonging the lock down primarily because he has no faith in the current Vic health systems and procedures, esp contact tracing. It seems that big efforts are being made to improve the situation, albeit very belatedly, and he is playing for as much time as he can get to allow that.
Reality always wins in the end.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1355
Imo Dan is prolonging the lock down primarily because he has no faith in the current Vic health systems and procedures, esp contact tracing. It seems that big efforts are being made to improve the situation, albeit very belatedly, and he is playing for as much time as he can get to allow that.
All the while crippling the economy and destroying livelihoods built over decades.
2017-16th
2018-Wooden Spoon
2019-16th
2020-dare to dream? 11th is better than last I suppose
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time


Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1357
I haven't posted here for a long time and I have littered my FB with stat after stat about this virus, to the stage where it is all I ever post about....
I've noticed  :P


Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1359
I see former Carlton board member Marcus Clarke QC is representing some looney cafe owner who is trying to get Dan's cerfew overturned in the Vic Supreme Court. Good luck Marcus, you'll need it.
2017-16th
2018-Wooden Spoon
2019-16th
2020-dare to dream? 11th is better than last I suppose
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1360
I heard today (and it is in the road map) that they won't removed restrictions even if they hit targets before the dates mentioned as time is a factor, well I would like to know exactly what sort of factor he means here. His timeline of 14 days is already more than in reasonably required to understand where this virus is at and what the future holds of the coming 2-4 weeks, so what exactly is time above this 14 day period? Either the number is a save number to ease restrictions or it is not.

At a guess why time is a factor...
If you are told you can open your resteraunt tomorrow. Can you?
Have you got stock?
Have you got your staff ready?
Have you cleaned your restaurant? (One point has been mentioned that a lot of places have started growing mould over lockdown. That will take time to sort out)
Is there even any stock that you can get? Farmers need to get their act together, trucked to where it needs to get too....are their workers there to take the delivery?

You get my point.

Thats just a guess, and using restaurants as an example.


Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1361
I have been tracking this virus here and globally since  March and I can tell you this.
There was absolutely no way that Dan and his team should have failed to realise what was going to happen.
They were using poor measurements for a start.
I haven't posted here for a long time and I have littered my FB with stat after stat about this virus, to the stage where it is all I ever post about, so I don't want to do the same thing here :)

But I have serious questions in the way the government has handled this and also how they refuse to provide any meaningful answers when questioned on it.

I heard today (and it is in the road map) that they won't removed restrictions even if they hit targets before the dates mentioned as time is a factor, well I would like to know exactly what sort of factor he means here. His timeline of 14 days is already more than in reasonably required to understand where this virus is at and what the future holds of the coming 2-4 weeks, so what exactly is time above this 14 day period? Either the number is a save number to ease restrictions or it is not.

I am very firmly in the camp that believes we need restrictions and right now need the lockdown. I thought it back in March, I thought it in June etc, so I believe that we should be in the lockdown we are in, but the pathway out... This is a huge crock and not only that, but I think there are severe failings in the modelling used and certainly it sits a fair way outside my own modelling and other modelling I have seen.

But.. on Dan...
If we have to be in stage 4 with 50 cases a day over 14 days (and I think 7 - 10 is more appropriate when measuring) when going down, then surely at around 50 cases per day over the averaging period (and in this case 14 is almost criminally unresponsive when a virus is ascending), then I would like to know why the government didn't act.. and I don't buy that they didn't want to risk the rage of the people, because it was highly predictable where the numbers were going to end up.

Here are just a simple table of stats (and it is even worse when you look at 7 day averages)

Average New Cases per day over previous 14 days.
Jul 04:   50.29
Jul 10: 108.79
Jul 14: 154.36
Jul 17: 200.86
Jul 21: 266.79
July 23 - Mandatory Masks - Melbourne & Mitcham Shire
Jul 25: 307.57
Jul 29: 366.50
Aug 01: 408.50
Aug 02 Stage 4 Melbourne lockdown.

So let's say Dan didn't thinkn we needed harsh lockdowns at 50.. or 100 or 150.. I mean the reality is, they had plenty of time to introduce them and the people of Melbourne are paying a huge price for this.
The impact on the mental health (forget suicides as a figure, look at the people who are developing other mental health issues that could take months or years to recover from)
The impact on those not being tested for possible terminal illnesses etc
The impact on the economy
The impact on students

And now the impact where the community is being punished for longer than it should be, because Dan didn't act.
If Dan had implemented these policies even once we hit 200, the lockdown would not have lasted longer than 6 weeks.
If he implemented at 100, then many hundreds of lives would have been saved.
Even if he implemented stage 3 restrictions sooner, all evidence statistically showed that the numbers were significantly reduced in stage 3, then he would have been able to accurately model our way out of this virus.
By not doing that, he is gun shy and it is insane.
Mandatory masks and stage 3 restrictions should be implemented already by the end of this month.
On October 1, at least with my forecasts suggest that the numbers at that time will be at a level that might be a little too high for stage 2 restrictions, but should be comfortably manageable for stage 3 (with mandatory masks).
In late September or early October, Metro Melbourne should be between 5-15 average cases a day (7 day averaging period) and it is really hard to justify why they can't be in a similar situation to region Victoria, with the requirements of masks still.

Just 2 last things.
1) People are sick of being blamed, but there is almost certainly a reason why the age demographics have the 20-29 age bracket as having the most infections, because they really are more likely to be breaking the rules and so more likely to be spreading it. So there is some truth in the public needing to wear part of the blame for the current situation
2) What are the triggers that will move Victoria back into heaving restrictions once they are eased? Will Dan Andrews fiddle whilst Victoria burns again, or will there be clearly defined cases numbers that are triggered to reintroduce restrictions and lockdowns?


Anyway in the meantime, I hope everyone is staying safe, sticking to the plan and working to help everyone get out of the  lockdowns, then I hope Dan Andrews actually acts in a transparent and logical way and starts to give you all back at least a semblance of your lives in early October.




Hi mio.

Long time.  I largely agree with a lot of what you've written.   Can I ask why you have opted for 7 or 10 days vs 14?

Its hard to disagree with what you've written.   I think we ran out of the first lockdown too fast and paid for it.  We eased 3 times in 3 weeks with 7 days as the target, and it went backwards.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1362
Hi mio.

Long time.  I largely agree with a lot of what you've written.   Can I ask why you have opted for 7 or 10 days vs 14?

Its hard to disagree with what you've written.   I think we ran out of the first lockdown too fast and paid for it.  We eased 3 times in 3 weeks with 7 days as the target, and it went backwards.


G'day Thry.
I come to the 7-10 day timeframe because it was the timeframe that allowed me most consistently predict trends in an accurate manner, whilst also keeping the data relevant.
I have put every countries daily data into a database, along with their population sizes etc and I ran models using  3-12 days trends, I found 7 was pretty much my sweet spot, of course the change even in the 7 day trend doesn't become apparent until around 14 or so days after a change to restrictions has been made and this is due to incubation periods, testing and reporting times etc.

14 days fails on the way up and the way down, on the way up, it does not come close to providing you with data in a timely manner (just as a small example we hit 50 cases over 7 days as an average a full 4 days before we hit that same average over 14 days). The problem is you are always making decisions long after you should have trended the data.
On the way down, it is the opposite effect. Knowing that we already know the data 10 days after a date (or approximately the data) off 7 days previous data, it makes no sense to "hang on" to data that is so far out of date.
For example the data across the previous 7 days is showing about a 20% drop compared to the last 14.

So on the way up and on the way down, it doesn't keep pace with the changes in the spread of the virus well enough for my liking and at times can really misrepresent the situation, but most dramatically, this is in the ascendancy

Obviously I am not an epidemiologist, but I just treated these stats the way I always treated stats and looked at this purely from a numbers perspective.
Goals for 2017
=============
Play the most anti-social football in the AFL


Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1363
I see former Carlton board member Marcus Clarke QC is representing some looney cafe owner who is trying to get Dan's cerfew overturned in the Vic Supreme Court. Good luck Marcus, you'll need it.

Political stunt? She is trying for Liberal pre-selection...

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #1364
Political stunt? She is trying for Liberal pre-selection...
There you go
2017-16th
2018-Wooden Spoon
2019-16th
2020-dare to dream? 11th is better than last I suppose
2021-Pi$$ or get off the pot
2022- Real Deal or more of the same? 0.6%
2023- "Raise the Standard" - M. Voss Another year wasted Bar Set
2024-Back to the drawing boardNo excuses, its time