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Messages - DJC

1
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: VFL 2024 Rd 7 Carlton vs Casey at Carlton
Reckon Newman might be an out.  His bump was high and he got off the ground.  Might miss a few.

I think that you have to make contact with an opponent to be eligible for suspension ... but I could be wrong  ::)

Apparently, Christian's eyesight is more reliable than most and he detected the faintest of contacts between Newey's arm and Neale-Bullen's body.  Newey gets a $2500 fine with an early plea.  Lachie Cowan was also fined for doing something mean to Neale-Bullen; $1875 with an early plea.
2
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 9 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
I thought Matt Kennedy did a good job on him in the middle for the first quarter and a half, it was only when he went forward he became a problem. Thought he tried at least unlike one Melb player in Fritsch, talk about lazy, if it wasnt delivered silver service style then he couldnt be bothered chasing or even competing and Goodwin dragged him several times and it was only in the last quarter I saw him making any effort after Petracca had done the hard work.
I thought we had players who were beaten on the night but at least tried, reckon Melb had a few who couldnt be bothered at all or sooked all night ie Gawn.

Vossy said that Kennedy probably did too good a job on Petracca!

It's interesting how the run with player's role normally changes when their opponent is shifted.  I suspect that Kennedy would have continued to get the job done if he had stayed with Petracca.  He has played as a defender recently and knows the structures and patterns.  We would have been a midfielder down, but Melbourne was and we have plenty others to rotate through the midfield.

4
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 9 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Last week the media piled on Matt Owies for banging his own head into the turf.  This week it’s Brodie Kemp who is copping it for slamming his own head into the ground. I’m not exactly sure how you stop your head from hitting the ground when your arms are pinned and the tackle knocks you off your feet and drives you forward.

Meanwhile, is there any chance of scrutinising Neale-Bullen’s flop when Newman brushed past him? 🙄
5
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 9 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
One thing I think the umps stuffed up.  Mcgovern juggled a mark, had two hands on it, and Petty knocked it out of his hands.  Play on the call.

That's a mark every week, and there was a few of those last night.  Wet weather footy, you can't make players hold it with an opponent punching it out.  Melbourne scored on the back of one of those.  Must have been 3rd quarter as it was the non punt road end.

The same thing happened to De Koning about 15m from goal in our forward line.  Poor umpiring!
6
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 9 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Arrived home from the game with Junior G2C to be greeted my an angry Mrs G2C. Reckoned the Ch7 commentary was so biased she had to mute it. Ahhhh yes, love it when my effect wears off on family members.
PS Heard Cornes this morning on radio say how he listened to SEN Blues Radio (Maher, Edmond, Kouta and Ange) synced with the TV telecast, absolutely hilarious he reckons.

Ms DJC is pretty much a neutral observer and she remarked that she never heard such biased commentary before.  She also had a crack at the umpires for some poor decisions  :)

BT and his mates do tend to boost the team that's behind so that the punters won't turn the game off but a bit of balance would be a pleasant change.

I must learn how to sync Blues Radio  :)
7
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 9 2024 Post Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Just on Ollie Hollands, caught a couple of times last night...he's only in his second season, still young , still very slight, and still probably adjusting to the speed of the game.
When he gets a bit more experience and a bit more bulk (he may never be super big, but he can add a bit of muscle and strength) he'll be a valuable long term player for us.

I reckon that was Ollie's best game.

I think that he is trying to find the time to make his disposals count and underestimates his opponent's closing speed and/or proximity.  In some ways it's probably better that he gives away a free than kicking to the opposition.  I imagine that Tim Clarke and Luke Power will be working with Ollie to improve his ability to get his disposals away more quickly and without losing efficiency.

Ollie was quieter in the second half, and Langdon's not the player he was, but it's still an important scalp to have taken. 
8
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: CV and mad panic behaviour
My friend and former colleague, Prof Catherine Bennett, has written an informative article about how Australia dropped the COVID ball after a very promising start:

https://www.bmj.com/content/380/bmj.p469

Catherine starts with;

“Even with its borders open and widespread infection happening for the better part of a year, Australia’s covid-19 mortality is 736 deaths per million—less than a quarter of Italy, the UK, and US, and just over half of Canada and Denmark.1 Applying the death rates of other countries on 20 February 2022 to the Australian population provides a rough indication of the lives saved through border closures and other measures to contain outbreaks in the first two years of the pandemic. If Australia had experienced the same cumulative fatality rate as Denmark, which had around 733 deaths per million people, then its death count would have been over 19 000, whereas it stood at 4901 on 20 February 2022.1 All other large western countries also fared worse, with mortality in Italy, the UK, and US exceeding 2500 per million people.1 Australia saved upwards of 60 000 lives by avoiding those very high death tolls.”

To reiterate, COVID mortality in Australia was 736 deaths per million compared to in excess of 2500 deaths per million in the USA and the UK.  The worst case scenario wasn’t happening in Australia because of the very effective measures put in place by Australian Governments.


9
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 9 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
How are we 'horribly out of form' while they are in good form ??

I’m not sure that we’re out of form but we’re not playing our best footy for four quarters.

Of the teams in the eight, Melbourne’s defence is the most miserly.  Our defence has conceded the most points, about 23 more than Melbourne each game.

We have kicked the third highest point score of the teams in the eight.  Melbourne is one three teams in the eight that have scored around 650 points.  That’s around 15 points per game less than us.

Part of that comes down to gamestyle but Melbourne’s defence is working much better than our unsettled, injury depleted defence.  At the other end of the ground, our very inefficient forward line is scoring more heavily than Melbourne’s cobbled together forward line that relies heavily on small and medium forwards.

Our defence worked much better with McGovern in the mix (including when  Weitering was out).  Given Melbourne’s lack of forward line firepower, can a returning McGovern improve our ability to generate scores from defence?

Our forwards will be under the pump with Melbourne’s in form defenders.  However, the addition of De Koning and the return of Martin should make for a more potent forward line that restricts the ability of Melbourne’s defenders to zone off and double team.

We haven’t been able to apply scoreboard pressure and, unlike the second half of last season, our ability to win close games isn’t as good.  If we’re going to win this one, we have start well and build a decent lead to keep Melbourne’s defence under pressure.
10
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 9 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
What hurt Cripps last game was making Kennedy sub, because Cerra and Walsh largely played an outside run type game, and Hewett was tagging. Cripps got no chop out and the Filth knew he was the only Mid working predictably on the inside.

When Kennedy came on he replaced a forward, they should have put Kennedy into the Midfield and let Cerra rest forward to turn the heat back onto the Filth and make them think twice about who the double team.

Even when Cripps draws 2 or 3 opponents leaving us with extra numbers, in recent weeks we haven't gain an advantage because our ball use has been poor.

Yes, having Chugga in the midfield mix usually means Cripps will play well.
11
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 9 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
once again we need to make Lever /may  accountable dont let them zone off take easy marks  with the stupid long bombs ,How smart are our Fwd line players.

It’s not the long bombs that they zone off on. It’s virtually every delivery into the forward line.  And if they’re not zoning off, they’re double teaming our leading forwards.

Playing three tall forwards makes Lever play on an opponent.  I’m more than happy for him play as a loose man and leave De Koning et al to do as they like.

We do need our small forwards to work harder at blocking the defenders’ run and crumbing halved marking contests.
12
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 9 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Just for something different....

Stop Cripps.
Stop Carlton.
OK, maybe.

What do we do when Cripps is getting beaten? Send him forward.
However, we already have Charlie, Harry and now TDK forward....can we afford to have Cripps there as well? Probably not.

So who is the weak link in that chain?

Yep, going back to the 1 ruck debate.
1 less ruck in the team means an extra midfielder and more flexibility/versatility with making moves.

I've been against it, but maybe its time to try TDK as a key back? We have extra talls good enough to play 1's, but running out of spots to play them all.....yet we have a big opening at CHB that we can't nail down. Why not TDK?

We have been sending Cripps forward, and quite effectively too.

It really shouldn’t matter if the opposition sets out to limit Crippa’s influence.  Our other mids, and rucks, should take up the slack and allow him to play a little more as an outside mid.  His work as a link up player is invaluable and he can do that without having to get first hands to the ball at every contest. 

It would be nice to see our rucks and other mids putting more pressure on Crippa’s opponents too.

The skipper is a big fan of the two rucks and I don’t think that he’d accept that one quieter game from him is any reason to change.
13
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 9 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
I don't really get the criticism of Lewis Young.  He might provide a few heart in mouth moments but I thought that he defended very well against Collingwood and did the job on Cox and Cameron when they went forward.

Only two of Young's eight marks were contested but he led the way for us with nine 1%ers and only Nic Newman had more intercepts.  On top of that, he only had one turnover for the game, not bad for a "panic merchant".

I imagine that Weitering will take Van Rooyen and we'll need another tall KPD to go with Petty and Gawn when he goes forward.

I wouldn't play Kemp on Fritsch.  Fritsch is too elusive and would exploit Kemp when he provides the extra at marking contests.
14
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 9 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Not sure what you expect from Fantasia. We only had 38 inside 50s and had 12 goals from it which is a good return.

Say you swap Martin for Fantasia last week. Jack might kick 2 but Owies might only get 1. Jack might be too gassed to chase his man meaning others have to leave theirs. Collingwood score more.

Not everyone forward is going to get lots of the ball and kick goals.

We didn't lose because of Orazio.

We lost because Collingwood had a plan.

They blocked Cripps at every stoppage. They showed this on the Sunday footy show.

David King showed how they dragged Weitering out of the play. Even showed him being held on the ground for just long enough do he couldn't get back to help his defenders.

And some critical umpiring decisions helped their cause as did an uncharacteristic lapse by Sam Walsh.

I wouldn’t rely too much on David King’s analysis.  He does tend to take an isolated incident or two and concoct a convincing scenario.  If we had won, he would have shown footage of our “tactics”.

The only criticism I have of Fantasia is for missing that shot at goal.  He doesn’t get many opportunities and he should make the most of every one.  Apart from that, he works hard, gets back in defence and makes his opponent accountable. 

15
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 9 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Melbourne
Let's not kid ourselves, Moir is 10,000 miles off. Needs a heap of development in so many areas and is being given time to do that. Fast tracking our high draft picks is 'old Carlton' done in desperation in the past (a small number of exceptions) and ruined a number of careers.

Yes, Moir needs to play more consistent footy before being considered for senior selection … and there’s no hurry.

Binns has benefited from being allowed to develop his craft in the Magoos and is way ahead of Moir.