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Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #705 –
Quote from: Mav on
The House only elects the President if no candidate wins 270 electoral college votes. That simply can't happen unless someone other than Clinton or Trump wins 1 or more electoral college votes. To win votes, a 3rd party candidate would have to receive more votes than both Clinton or Trump in a State (or in the case of a couple of states which split up their votes into districts, by winning g such a district). Getting 9% of the vote won't do that.

What a 3rd party candidate might do is take enough votes from either Trump or Clinton to swing a state one way or the other. Unfortunately, it's most likely that they'll syphon off votes from Clinton. Disaffected Sanders voters might go Green or Libertarian. Never Trump Republicans might prefer to vote for the Libertarians or for the Never Trump candidate. If it were only a 2 horse race, many would opt for Clinton.

....or stay home ;)

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #706 –
Thanks Mav

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #708 –
Yep, campaign finance reform is desperately needed but hamstrung by the Constitution, according to their Supreme Court.  Dark money and super-PACS give the wealthy plenty of influence.  The Koch brothers' Red State Strategy and financing of politically-loaded higher education are also influential, the former enabling the Republicans to gerrymander the House.

Is a disaster unfolding?  Don't Look Now: Donald Trump Has All The Momentum In The 2016 Race, the Age, 15/9/16.

Looks like the 1st Presidential Debate is looking more and more critical.  Unfortunately for Clinton, she is expected to win it given her debating skills, so she'll have to slay him mercilessly to benefit from it.  A decent showing from Trump would be a win for him.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #710 –
Trump has finally admitted that Obama was born in America.  The Washington Post published an interview with him this morning in which he refused to do so but his campaign has released a statement on his behalf in which he blames (falsely) Clinton for disputing his place of birth and claiming that by forcing Obama to release his long-form birth certificate he helped Obama and showed his patriotism and ability as a closer.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #711 –
Well most people, at least the ones I speak to and read, thought this was Hilary's to lose. It couldn't really happen could it?
Reality always wins in the end.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #712 –
Maybe this is looking for the silver lining but it's not a bad thing that voters realise that Trump might get in if they don't turn out to vote.  Apathy might bring Clinton undone, especially as she isn't the most exciting of candidates.

In the Brexit vote, the Remain camp had the lead in polls taken just before the vote.  As we know, a number of voters had buyers' remorse after the event, saying that they only voted Leave as a protest vote, thinking that the vote would be in favour of remaining in the EU.  Perhaps the tightening polls in the presidential race might provoke moderate Republicans and Sanders bros to vote for Hillary instead of the Greens or Libertarians.  It might also turn out more black and latino voters.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #713 –
Gary Johnson (Libertarian Party) and Jill Stein (Greens) haven't made the cut for the 1st debate on Monday week, 26/9.  That would be good news for Hillary.  She would want to go head to head with Trump for as long as possible and wouldn't want precious time to be eaten up by Johnson.  She also wants to consolidate the anti-Trump vote, so she hardly wants Stein and Johnson to have the spotlight.  Trump had said that Johnson should be invited, no doubt because he could then make it a true 3 ring circus.  But neither candidate influenced this decision.  It was made by the independent body which runs the debates simply because Stein and Johnson didn't meet the requirement of averaging 15% or more in the polls.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #715 –
Worrying, but it's not yet time to see Dr Nitschke.  The pneumonia issue obviously had an impact as well as the 'basket of deplorables' comment (although I can't understand how any moderate would be offended given that White Supremacists and other wingnuts well deserve the label).  The health issue would obviously abate if Clinton continues to campaign hard and Trump better keep on using his antibacterial handwashes or else he'll cop it too.  Perhaps biological weapons, i.e. babies held out by proud Trump supporters, might bring him undone.

But current polling is probably of little interest anyway. The 1st debate takes place next Monday.  To say it's an important event is downplaying its significance.  It's going to be a monster.  It will be just about the most watched event ever.  Even Americans who aren't interested in politics will tune in to see what Trump does.  If Trump faceplants, end of game.  If he does well, end of game.  The question is, what metric will swinging voters use to assess his performance?  If he brings a low content but highly-colourful game, will style trump content?  Perhaps debating and political experts will give the nod to Clinton while swinging voters will give it to Trump.

The difficulty for Clinton is that she may only get one shot at it.  If Trump does well in the 1st debate, he may well refuse to turn up to the last 2.  He's already laying the groundwork, saying that Anderson Cooper, the CNN presenter who is to co-moderate the 2nd debate, is biased against him and should be dumped.  I wouldn't even exclude the possibility of pulling out of the 1st debate if he thinks he's doing well enough but I suspect that depriving the public of that spectacle might create a backlash.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #716 –
The NYC pressure-cooker bombing might have some impact.  Looks like the FBI is fairly advanced in its investigation and we may well know more about the culprits and their motives quite soon.  As there's been no claim of responsibility from ISIS or any other terrorist organisation, it's possible the culprits were right-wing terrorists.  That would create an interesting twist that may create problems for Trump.  On the other hand, ISIS claimed a separate knife attack was down to one of its 'soldiers'.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #717 –
Damn, the suspect is a naturalised Afghan.  Trump's roll continues, even if he had no formal links to M/E terrorists.

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #718 –
It's here!  1st debate starts in an hour.  Trump is tipped to be boring Trump to be reassuring to uncommitted voters.  Will he be able to stay that way for 90 minutes without breaks?  Will Clinton be able to press his buttons?
 

Re: US Presidential Election 2016

Reply #719 –
Quote from: Mav on
It's here!  1st debate starts in an hour.  Trump is tipped to be boring Trump to be reassuring to uncommitted voters.  Will he be able to stay that way for 90 minutes without breaks?  Will Clinton be able to press his buttons?

No chance. She will get personal and he will get personal then Trump will be called a bully.

Hillary is obviously worried about this hence all her acting classes she has been doing in the lead up, not sure anything can prepare her for what Trump is going to bring?
2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!