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Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #2175
If only we could somehow have a good C-19 news feed... ie "In the past week, 9 million people globally received their Covid vaccine shot with no severe ill effects. The 11 million from the week prior report good health... etc."

Instead, the 2 that dropped dead make the headlines and the anti-vaxxers leap on that information with absolutely no knowledge of the health status of those adversely affected by the vaccine.  ::)

I read that Israel is getting close to 35% of their population having been inoculated.
Only our ruthless best, from Board to bootstudders will get us no. 17

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #2176
I read that Israel is getting close to 35% of their population having been inoculated.
I believe that is an old total, they have already hit 50% but the published figures will lag the activity.

If only we could somehow have a good C-19 news feed... ie "In the past week, 9 million people globally received their Covid vaccine shot with no severe ill effects. The 11 million from the week prior report good health... etc."

Instead, the 2 that dropped dead make the headlines and the anti-vaxxers leap on that information with absolutely no knowledge of the health status of those adversely affected by the vaccine.  ::)
There isn't strong evidence many people were adversely affected at this stage it's just coincidence needing further investigation, although it is expected that like any vaccine some will have a serious reaction. But the risk is so low it's negligible, to date with millions already vaccinated it appears to be even lower risk than most pre-existing vaccines, and very low compared to the risk of not being vaccinated.

I find the vocal anti-vaxxers are mostly individuals who protest pretty much anything and everything.

You will note today's AO media about jeering a vaccination reference is a nice example of media negligence, the media court controversy because it rates, so they publish articles about the boos ignoring the equal or louder applause. The anti-vaxxers will only acknowledge the boos, because fundamentally they act to recruit not to inform, also keep in mind the crowd is about 25% Djoker boosters, the player who many regard as the king anti-vaxxer himself!
The Force Awakens!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #2177
If only we could somehow have a good C-19 news feed... ie "In the past week, 9 million people globally received their Covid vaccine shot with no severe ill effects. The 11 million from the week prior report good health... etc."

Instead, the 2 that dropped dead make the headlines and the anti-vaxxers leap on that information with absolutely no knowledge of the health status of those adversely affected by the vaccine.  ::)

I read that Israel is getting close to 35% of their population having been inoculated.

Baggers, I will point out one inconsistency of argument here, that worries me somewhat.

If you or your loved one was directly affected by an administration of the vaccine, how happy would you be about it?

NOTE:  when the anti vaxxers advocate a "let it rip" argument with respect to COVID, because it only affects a fraction of the population adversely (figures not quoted, as I am not an advocate of this approach) the argument is much the same.

It really isnt as simple as anti vax, pro vax etc.  In this case, people are right to be skeptical.  Apparently the Pfizer vaccine has not even been granted FDA approval, and is only being administered thanks to state of emergency powers.  I understand that this is somewhat necessary evil, but it doesnt sit much better with me.
"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #2178
Before anyone goes on the offensive with me, I am abstaining from having an opinion, but just providing balance to these arguments now.  Its not a popular position, and it generally doesnt sit well with many, but my approach isnt one of arguing who is right, but trying to work out what is right.

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccinesafety/concerns/guillain-barre-syndrome.html

Quote
Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is a rare disorder where the body’s immune system damages nerve cells, causing muscle weakness and sometimes paralysis. While its cause is not fully understood, the syndrome often follows infection with a virus or bacteria. Each year in the United States, an estimated 3,000 to 6,000 people develop GBS. Most people fully recover from GBS, but some have permanent nerve damage.

GBS and the link to flu vaccine

In 1976, there was a small increased risk of GBS after swine flu vaccination, which was a special flu vaccine for a potential pandemic strain of flu virus. The National Academy of Medicine, formerly known as Institute of Medicine, conducted a scientific review of this issue in 2003 and found that people who received the 1976 swine flu vaccine had an increased risk for developing GBS. The increased risk was approximately one additional case of GBS for every 100,000 people who got the swine flu vaccine. Scientists have several theories about the cause, but the exact reason for this link remains unknown.

There have been several studies of the risk of GBS after flu vaccine and CDC monitors for GBS during each flu season. The data on an association between seasonal influenza vaccine and GBS have been variable from season-to-season. When there has been an increased risk, it has consistently been in the range of 1-2 additional GBS cases per million flu vaccine doses administered.

Studies suggest that it is more likely that a person will get GBS after getting the flu than after vaccination. It is important to keep in mind that severe illness and death are associated with flu, and getting vaccinated is the best way to prevent flu infection and its complications.


This is where it becomes problematic to understand and why I don't denigrate people who think they are standing up for the right thing.

We actually dont have good data surrounding this virus, what it can do, and we arguably wont have good data for quite some time about any long term adverse affects of administration of a vaccine that was hastily developed in light of the pandemic situation.

Anyone advocating either position with absolute certainty is simply confessing that they have a confirmation bias, and their opinion should be heeded with caution.   At this stage, no one really knows what will happen on a large scale with both the virus, and the vaccine and I think thats the only real position people should be taking with respect to all of this.

There is every chance that vaccine might be worse than the virus, and vice versa, and only time and studies will tell the story, not an assertion of facts on a forum like facebook, youtube, or the carlton supporters club forum.


"everything you know is wrong"

Paul Hewson

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #2179
NOTE:  when the anti vaxxers advocate a "let it rip" argument with respect to COVID, because it only affects a fraction of the population adversely (figures not quoted, as I am not an advocate of this approach) the argument is much the same.
Not at all, firstly the idea that a vaccine is solely responsible for a demise is laughable, and secondly the numbers are drastically different.

Up until today, 205,000,000 COVID vaccinations have been issued, yet the sensationalist media and anti-vaxxers highlight a handful of correlated incidents that could be severe reactions.

"Letting it Rip" would be the equivalent of putting the mutating virus on steroids and expecting a good result. It's a complete misunderstanding of how a virus evolves in relation to how immunity develops. The sort of immunity the anti-vaxxers claim will come from a release requires global deaths to be in the 8 and 9 digit category, 10 or 100 times more than now!

It really isnt as simple as anti vax, pro vax etc.  In this case, people are right to be skeptical.  Apparently the Pfizer vaccine has not even been granted FDA approval, and is only being administered thanks to state of emergency powers.  I understand that this is somewhat necessary evil, but it doesnt sit much better with me.
All the current vaccines are approved for emergency use after Stage III trials testing vaccine on 10,000 to 40,000 individuals in double blind, which bypasses Stage IV where perhaps it is required to specifically test vaccine on 100,000 or more individuals are required. But by accelerating the roll-out of emergency use Stage IV is effectively already being conducted in many regions. It's wrong to consider people as guinea pigs when vaccinated in Feb 2021, because some regions have been vaccinating since Dec 2020, it's just that each region has sovereignty over it's own approval process. But globally due to the very high numbers of people already vaccinated the trial is effectively done.

Testing 10,000,000 over 3 months is functionally the same as testing 2,000,000 over a year or 1,000,000 over two years with a good safe margin. Humans struggle with the math because it doesn't fit with personal experience. These are numbers a regular deliberate trial can only dream of!

Keep in mind the anti-vaxxers and media are referring to incidents that happened within minutes or hours of being vaccinated. How many hours have passed for those individuals already vaccinated, I don't know how to do that calculation but it will be billions of hours!

Some vaccines have been given permission to Challenge test, which makes this Stage III and IV process effectively redundant, but is not consider as scientifically rigorous as there is no double blind trial.

Despite the rare events that relate to specifics, this vaccine is already statistically safer than driving, flying, eating nuts, smoking, drinking alcohol, sunbaking, climbing a ladder, taking a shower, having a bath. I realise this doesn't fit with some people's experience, but you can't debate the math, it just is!

You might die, I might die, coincidentally or just because of the injection, or because of anaphylactic shock, but you are more likely to die trying a new food or restaurant this week!
The Force Awakens!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #2180
I read a nice analogy on the web over the weekend.

Poison Smarties.

 - If COVID was a box of 100 Smarties, somewhere between 3 or 4 of the Smarties in that box would kill you if you ate them, any one of another 30 would make you ill.

 - If the COVID vaccine was Smarties, you have to eat 20,000 of those boxes before you had a 50/50 chance of getting a single Smarty death.

 Statistically, you probably find that eating 2,000,000 Smarties is likely to kill you by a range of means anyway, choking, diabetes, obesity, vitamin deficiency!

There are many ironies in the anti-vaxxer debates, perhaps none greater than the woke health aware who are fervent promoters of unpasteurised milk products, which is effectively cyanide for young babies in comparison to the risk of any vaccination!
The Force Awakens!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #2181
Where is the source for your Smarties data?





2012 HAPPENED!!!!!!!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #2182
Interesting article about the history of the polio vaccine(s): How a debate over two competing vaccines gripped the medical community — in 1961, Salon Click HERE.

I didn’t know there were 2 polio vaccines. I’m glad I received the flavoured Sabin sugar cube rather than the Salk jab as I hate needles and they would have needed a footy team to hold me down.

Fascinating that Sabin’s live attenuated vaccine eventually mutated to cause infections.

Just the story of the hostility between Salk & Sabin makes it worth the read. Reminds me of one of the more famous scientific fights to the death between Newton and Leibniz over who invented calculus. British mathematicians fell in behind Newton while those on the continent went the other way. Prof. Jerison from MIT argues the refusal of the British to use Leibniz’s notation set British maths back by a 100 years.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #2183
Where is the source for your Smarties data?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

To date there are not many official published reports on allergic reactions, probably because of privacy issues, plus these typically take more than 2 or 3 months to be published. But there is a Moderna study in the USA. 9 reactions from more than 4,000,000 injections for a total of 0 deaths.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7004e1.htm
The trouble with this study is the VAERS is voluntary, and anyone can report to it not just health officials, but it's very unlikely a death wouldn't be reported.

Secondly, if there are so few cases not many people will bother studying it, it's not worth the effort because of the low relative risk and because if numbers are so low they are difficult to specifically link to the vaccine. Technically the risk of vaccination is a non-issue relative to COVID itself.
The Force Awakens!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #2184
Interesting article about the history of the polio vaccine(s): How a debate over two competing vaccines gripped the medical community — in 1961, Salon Click HERE.

I didn’t know there were 2 polio vaccines. I’m glad I received the flavoured Sabin sugar cube rather than the Salk jab as I hate needles and they would have needed a footy team to hold me down.

Fascinating that Sabin’s live attenuated vaccine eventually mutated to cause infections.

Just the story of the hostility between Salk & Sabin makes it worth the read. Reminds me of one of the more famous scientific fights to the death between Newton and Leibniz over who invented calculus. British mathematicians fell in behind Newton while those on the continent went the other way. Prof. Jerison from MIT argues the refusal of the British to use Leibniz’s notation set British maths back by a 100 years.
Yes, and this is a very nice example of modern science, which now basically accepts it was a tie, I'm not sure about Jerison's observation that is a bit subjective. For the lay person, Newton's Dotted notation was very heavy reading.

btw., You have to put the outcome of those Calculus examples in context with the communications technology of the time, a international debate conducted in letters could mean a year or more before you get a response to a point! In local terms the public debate was often over before an international response even arrived.
The Force Awakens!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #2185
Interesting article about the history of the polio vaccine(s): How a debate over two competing vaccines gripped the medical community — in 1961, Salon Click HERE.

I didn’t know there were 2 polio vaccines. I’m glad I received the flavoured Sabin sugar cube rather than the Salk jab as I hate needles and they would have needed a footy team to hold me down.

Fascinating that Sabin’s live attenuated vaccine eventually mutated to cause infections.
........................

https://pulitzercenter.org/stories/polio-salk-sabin-rivalry

This article is a quick and easy read, and seems to suggest that a combined vaccine is best.

But a report released in July last year by the World Health Organization (WHO) may provide a poetic resolution to the debate between the two camps. The answer: a combination of both vaccines may be the most effective way to defeat the disease. After a series of trials in India in 2011 and 2012, researchers found that administering the injected vaccine alongside the live virus boosted immunity significantly. Now the WHO is recommending this approach throughout the remaining polio endemic countries.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #2186
Good read Paul. But one of the more startling claims in the Salon article (adapted by the authors from a book they’d written) was:
Quote
Mainly because of the large-scale use of Sabin's vaccine, poliovirus has largely been eradicated from the planet. Only a few natural infections occur now, mainly in Pakistan and Afghanistan where polio is still endemic. Sabin's vaccine is a live RNA virus. While it does not thrive well in humans, it does replicate in us. Since RNA replication is error prone, the virus in the vaccine could mutate to become dangerous again. The mutated virus could spread to others and cause paralysis. Indeed, most of the cases of polio seen today outside the endemic areas are caused by such mutations of the live virus in Sabin's vaccine.
This implies the mutations weren’t responsible for the polio infections in Pakistan & Afghanistan but had cropped up elsewhere. As for how many were infected by mutations and whether anyone was paralysed as a result, we aren’t told. I guess we have to buy the book to find out!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #2187
But a report released in July last year by the World Health Organization (WHO) may provide a poetic resolution to the debate between the two camps. The answer: a combination of both vaccines may be the most effective way to defeat the disease. After a series of trials in India in 2011 and 2012, researchers found that administering the injected vaccine alongside the live virus boosted immunity significantly. Now the WHO is recommending this approach throughout the remaining polio endemic countries.
Interestingly, there are some early rumours "cross vaccination" with different types of COVID vaccine are offering similar improved results. You can expect papers by mid-year, there is one paper out but the study is so small at less than 50 patients it's not worth referencing.

This might be the biggest issue in 3rd World locations, where an initial expensive dose to high risk populations can be followed up with a cheaper generic shot. Let's hope for good news on that front!
The Force Awakens!

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #2188
Interestingly, there are some early rumours "cross vaccination" with different types of COVID vaccine are offering similar improved results. You can expect papers by mid-year, there is one paper out but the study is so small at less than 50 patients it's not worth referencing.

This might be the biggest issue in 3rd World locations, where an initial expensive dose to high risk populations can be followed up with a cheaper generic shot. Let's hope for good news on that front!

Indeed.

Re: CV and mad panic behaviour

Reply #2189
Where is the source for your Smarties data?

The back of the packet?
“Why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don’t you dig how beautiful it is out here? Why don’t you say something righteous and hopeful for a change?”  Oddball