Carlton Supporters Club

That's a great analysis. IMO it is still very concerning [and scary] that we have made ZERO improvement to our scoring and goal kickers over the past 12 months.

I have banged on about this a bit, but I feel that many are missing the simple fact that we have made no progress in scoring power over the past 2.5 years. We are dead last in points for this year - we are simply never going to win games of football consistently and climb the ladder until we can improve our scoring by around 30% - 40% from where it has been stuck for a very long time.

Like a lot of others I see potential in some of the young players, but history also shows forwards, especially tall forwards, will take 3 years before they make a consistent impact and can kick 40-50+in a season. If we get Kerr and Harry into the team now, we are a still a long way away from having a top 8 scoring capability.

We can improve the defence relatively quickly [and we have with Doc, Marchbank, Plowman and Williamson], and the midfield is where we already have our 4 best players. Of course we need more quality midfield depth, but our forward line today is effectively a rabble still, led by a 27yo who will average 2 goals a game at best. All of the youngsters we have rolled through there so far this year have shown cameo's at best.

I think we need to start playing Kerr and McKay as a priority, and give KJ one last roll of the dice for a few games to see if he can show something. In the off season we need to recruit an established goal kicker and an experienced mid sized midfielder / forward to build our future forward line around - just like how we have built our backline around the experience of Simmo and Rowe [and now ACOS]. Remember our last successful drafting a KPF was Josh Kennedy in 2005!!

If we don't change something significant then we are doomed to keep getting the same scoring results as we have for the last 3.5 years. The idea that it will just 'naturally improve' has clearly been shown for a long time now to be a fallacy.

Rant over.......

Solving it takes 50+ games experience for Curnow, SOSOS, McKay, Weit, Lebois, etc.

What us your solution? Recruit an experienced player I guess? If so which one?

I'm trying to understand where the 'confidence' comes from that is the basis of your argument, because the stats I am looking at tell a different story. What numbers are you looking at??

Rd10 2017 across all teams the average score for is 92.3, Rd10 2016 across all teams the average score was 92.2. So scoring rates across the comp are identical to same time last year. By the end of 2016 the average score had dropped to 89, so you could argue that scoring rates this year are actually up versus FY last year, but it's a moot point.

Your point about AE is exactly right - if you lose a player who consistently kicks 18 goals and don't replace him with another player of similar or better output, you will go backwards. We didn't recruit anyone who is looking like doing that number, but others have improved slightly [Cas / SOJ] so we stay square. But given we were 3rd last in scoring last year, my contention is that 'staying square' is a really bad outcome. And as has been shown, because the bottom teams have improved their scoring versus last year, we are actually now ranked dead last in scoring.

I don't really follow how the rotations effect this?? The objective of reducing rotations by the AFL is to reduce congestion, which may [or may not] increase scoring because the ball is 'in play' more often. The stats shown above would say that there has been no impact on actual scoring rates thus far.

Attack is the best form of defense - 1970, 1972, 1995, 2007 GF's, all examples of teams who were either inherently attacking, or changed it up to go more attacking on the big day.

It's much harder for the opposition to catch you when you score 120 points per game than 70. It also makes it easier for the defense. There is simply no margin for error if your back 6 is defending measly low totals. The Crows defense, however good or bad they may be, have it easier than our boys. By this factor, our back 6 are doing a stellar job.

Bolton is following a very similar strategy to that used by Roos with Melbourne.  It will work but we'll have limited success in the short term.

The key challenge is knowing when to change the emphasis to attack.

Well, I hope you're right, although I have my reservations about Melbourne being a suitable model to follow.

No doubt Bolts has put down dots on paper, and some of you seem to be able to join those dots and see the picture he's trying to make. Me, I'm undecided at this point. I can see little things here and there, but doubts remain.

Well, I hope you're right, although I have my reservations about Melbourne being a suitable model to follow.

No doubt Bolts has put down dots on paper, and some of you seem to be able to join those dots and see the picture he's trying to make. Me, I'm undecided at this point. I can see little things here and there, but doubts remain.

My confidence comes from a few places.

1. No bombers/lions easy beats this year for teams to inflate their scoring. 

2.  On average at the end of last season (vs this season) many teams are conceding on average less points per match than last season.  Likewise,  it's fifty fifty in terms of teams scoring more on average (points scored/conceded divided by matches played).  It's still early for this.  It can change.

3.  I watch a lot of footy.  Games seem tighter, scoring isn't as quick, games are more open but generally the games are more end to end, with most of the play between the arcs and lots of turnovers entering forward fifty. 

I might have drawn some false conclusions, and some false perceptions.   However I'm confident in my opinions.   Time will tell, but I'm not overly concerned about it.  We're getting opportunities,  we are semi efficient with scoring, there is room for improvement and if our final kick entering fifty was cleaner we'd score more goals.

Scoring is down, footy has changed, tougher year this year etc.
Sure.

But...
Before last round, we were the only team to not have scored 100 goals so far this season.
We've only played 2 of the top 7 teams thus far so you certainly can't blame a hard draw.

Whatever trends you perceive to be going on, we are still at the bottom of them.

Attack is the best form of defense - 1970, 1972, 1995, 2007 GF's, all examples of teams who were either inherently attacking, or changed it up to go more attacking on the big day.

It's much harder for the opposition to catch you when you score 120 points per game than 70. It also makes it easier for the defense. There is simply no margin for error if your back 6 is defending measly low totals. The Crows defense, however good or bad they may be, have it easier than our boys. By this factor, our back 6 are doing a stellar job.

...and what happens if they don't live up to expectation?

We've lost them, and 2+ years of experience on a potential replacement player we could've/SHOULD'VE drafted in the meantime.

Keep drafting until you have an embarrassment of riches that you can cash in on.

In the meantime.....do what we did with A. Silvagni. Take a big body who is ready to go should we need them.