Carlton Supporters Club

Princes Park => Robert Heatley Stand => Topic started by: DJC on February 17, 2019, 03:05:29 pm

Title: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: DJC on February 17, 2019, 03:05:29 pm
Alleged list management guru, Chris Pelchen, has cast his eye over all 18 lists and he doesn't see a great deal of improvement from us this season as well as a slow climb back up the ladder:

Quote
17. CARLTON
It's become a perennial question – will Carlton be any better this year? While there has been much said and written about the Blues in recent years, with most of the commentary being negative, they are on the right track. Rebuilding a player list that had decayed to the extent of Carlton's was always going to be a huge task. Although it's reasonable to query some of the club's list decisions during the past four to five years, their overall direction is sound – albeit it's taking a considerable amount of time to bear fruit. And it's going to take a considerable amount more time. The Blues are still three to four years from being a finals contender again. But with the likes of Patrick Cripps, Charlie Curnow, Jacob Weitering, Caleb Marchbank, Paddy Dow, Sam Petrevski-Seton and Zac Fisher, they are building the foundations of a talented team. The arrival of Mitch McGovern and No.1 draftee Sam Walsh provides even greater reason to believe that the ship has been righted. Expect another challenging year for the Blues in 2019 but look beyond the now and focus on the horizon – it's more than just an oasis.

Movement from 2018 rankings: no movement (17th)
Three-year projected list ranking (2022): 10th

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/every-afl-list-rated-and-premiers-west-coast-are-seventh-20190215-p50y21.html

If Pelchen's 2018 rankings are any guide, we could finish in the eight  :)

I suspect that his rankings are based on a fairly superficial analysis but I'm not disappointed at our 17th placed ranking; it's easier to exceed low expectations.

For what it's worth, I reckon we will finish in 14th place and we will be top four in 2022.
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: LP on February 17, 2019, 04:50:57 pm
If your club doesn't draft the players that Pelchen thinks they should he kicks your playing list endlessly.

But I've heard more than once from fairly high up official sources that Pelchen lives on stealing the thunder for hard work done by others. You'd be surprised to hear who the Dawks wouldn't have picked if the Dawks board had listened to Pelchen instead of Buckenara!
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: cookie2 on February 17, 2019, 04:53:35 pm
I'm reconciled to the fact that we may need another year to bed in some of our talent but I'll enjoy watching the young guys developing this year. I'm confident we have a sound foundation for the future now. I'm not going to mozz anything by forecasting a ladder position - maybe after I've watched 2 - 3 games.  ;)
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: ElwoodBlues1 on February 17, 2019, 06:28:38 pm
We can improve but so can everyone else,very hard to forecast when you have to factor in if other teams are improving or falling away...eg Collingwood were looking bottom 4 for a while, Buckley couldnt coach and 12 months later they are playing in a GF and stiffs like Mason Cox are winning finals...
Same could happen to us hopefully, finals contention in 3-4 years is asking a lot of the natives not to get too restless....not sure Bolton would survive on that time frame..
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: flyboy77 on February 17, 2019, 07:09:09 pm
We can improve but so can everyone else,very hard to forecast when you have to factor in if other teams are improving or falling away...eg Collingwood were looking bottom 4 for a while, Buckley couldnt coach and 12 months later they are playing in a GF and stiffs like Mason Cox are winning finals...
Same could happen to us hopefully, finals contention in 3-4 years is asking a lot of the natives not to get too restless....not sure Bolton would survive on that time frame..

Yes, but given the quality of our kids - and their ages - our prospective rate of improvement should far exceed all others in the next 1-3 years.

If Harry and weiters come of age this year, for example.....

And remember Setterfield and SPS both hit 21 this year - the former lacks games but is an extreme talent as is Samo, whom from all reports has busted it on the training track....

Sure,we're right in not expecting a lot from 18 or 19 year olds - but blokes in the 20-22 yo bracket (3rd or 4th seasons, often with 50 games + under their belts):

21   Garlett, Jarrod           28   22yr 9mth   3 May 1996   180cm   74kg   South Fremantle   Midfield
Forward
33   Pickett, Jarrod           17   22yr 5mth   18 Aug 1996   178cm   77kg   South Fremantle   Forward
45   Goddard, Hugh (R)   10   22yr 5mth   24 Aug 1996   197cm   96kg   Geelong Falcons   Defender
22   Marchbank, Caleb   35   22yr 2mth   7 Dec 1996   193cm   90kg   Murray Bushrangers   Defender
30   Curnow, Charlie           47   22yr   3 Feb 1997   194cm   91kg   Geelong Falcons   Forward
44   Owies, Matt (R)             0   21yr 10mth   19 Mar 1997   183cm   82kg   St Kevins   
28   Cuningham, David   16   21yr 10mth   30 Mar 1997   183cm   83kg   Oakleigh Chargers   Midfield
Forward
7   Kennedy, Matthew   31   21yr 10mth   6 Apr 1997   188cm   89kg   Collingullie Ashmont Kapooka   Midfield
23   Weitering, Jacob   56   21yr 2mth   23 Nov 1997   195cm   95kg   Mount Eliza Football Club   Defender
1   Silvagni, Jack           43   21yr 1mth   17 Dec 1997   191cm   89kg   Oakleigh Chargers   Forward
10   McKay, Harry           15   21yr 1mth   24 Dec 1997   200cm   95kg   Gippsland Power   Forward
43   Setterfield, Will             2   21yr           5 Feb 1998   190cm   87kg   Sandringham Dragons   Midfield
Forward
5   Petrevski-Seton, Sam   42   20yr 11mth   19 Feb 1998   180cm   74kg   Claremont   Midfield
Forward
29   Polson, Cameron   13   20yr 11mth   11 Mar 1998   177cm   76kg   Sandringham Dragons   Midfield
Forward
26   Macreadie, Harrison   8   20yr 10mth   11 Apr 1998   196cm   91kg   Henty   Defender
42   LeBois, Kym (R)     0   20yr 8mth   22 May 1998   175cm   70kg   North Adelaide   Forward
25   Fisher, Zac         34   20yr 8mth   15 Jun 1998   175cm   72kg   Perth   Midfield
Forward
36   Kerr, Pat                  4   20yr 6mth   31 Jul 1998   197cm   97kg   Oakleigh Chargers   Forward
31   Williamson, Tom      15   20yr 2mth   12 Dec 1998   189cm   82kg   North Ballarat Rebels   Defender
19   Schumacher, Angus   0   19yr 11mth   16 Mar 1999   190cm   84kg   Bendigo Pioneers   Defender
Midfield
12   De Koning, Tom           2   19yr 7mth   16 Jul 1999   201cm   92kg   Dandenong Stingrays   Forward


10 first round draft picks in that lot - 7 of those 10 in their respective years, top 10 picks.

Not all will go bang, a few never, and certainly not all at once.

But go bang most of them will - that's what the stats strongly suggest....

And then there's a lad like Fisher who already plays like a seasoned 100 gamer.
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: flyboy77 on February 17, 2019, 09:21:36 pm
We can improve but so can everyone else,very hard to forecast when you have to factor in if other teams are improving or falling away...eg Collingwood were looking bottom 4 for a while, Buckley couldnt coach and 12 months later they are playing in a GF and stiffs like Mason Cox are winning finals...
Same could happen to us hopefully, finals contention in 3-4 years is asking a lot of the natives not to get too restless....not sure Bolton would survive on that time frame..

ps finals in 2020 entirely realistic...
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: Gointocarlton on February 17, 2019, 09:36:19 pm
We can improve but so can everyone else,very hard to forecast when you have to factor in if other teams are improving or falling away...eg Collingwood were looking bottom 4 for a while, Buckley couldnt coach and 12 months later they are playing in a GF and stiffs like Mason Cox are winning finals...
Same could happen to us hopefully, finals contention in 3-4 years is asking a lot of the natives not to get too restless....not sure Bolton would survive on that time frame..
I heard on radio the other day how Melb want to give Goody a rolling contract. They then talked about BB's employment contract and I think it was Sam Edmund who chimed in with something along lines that BB's contract has an element of security in it until 2020. Anyone else know what this means?
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: DJC on February 17, 2019, 11:08:58 pm
I heard on radio the other day how Melb want to give Goody a rolling contract. They then talked about BB's employment contract and I think it was Sam Edmund who chimed in with something along lines that BB's contract has an element of security in it until 2020. Anyone else know what this means?

Bolton's original employment agreement specified a period (two years IIRC) during which he would receive a full payout if his services were terminated.  I understand that, as his employment agreement has been extended, the payout period has also been extended.  If Bolton's services were to be terminated before the end of the 2020 season, he would receive his full salary for the period of this agreement (2021?).
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: DJC on February 17, 2019, 11:12:39 pm
We can improve but so can everyone else,very hard to forecast when you have to factor in if other teams are improving or falling away...eg Collingwood were looking bottom 4 for a while, Buckley couldnt coach and 12 months later they are playing in a GF and stiffs like Mason Cox are winning finals...
Same could happen to us hopefully, finals contention in 3-4 years is asking a lot of the natives not to get too restless....not sure Bolton would survive on that time frame..

Yes, we will only climb the ladder if we improve faster than the likes of Gold Coast, St Kilda and Fremantle, and teams like North, Brisbane, Bulldogs, Sydney fall away.

A change in fortune can be very rapid though, as we've seen in the last three or four seasons.
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: Professer E on February 18, 2019, 07:41:33 am
The CFC, and Bolton,  would want to throw the masses a bone well before then.... Another four win season,  or the Adelaide pick swap going sour and it will turn nasty,  real nasty,  very quickly.
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: sandsmere on February 18, 2019, 07:48:16 am
Bolton's original employment agreement specified a period (two years IIRC) during which he would receive a full payout if his services were terminated.  I understand that, as his employment agreement has been extended, the payout period has also been extended.  If Bolton's services were to be terminated before the end of the 2020 season, he would receive his full salary for the period of this agreement (2021?).

Yes. There was an agreement signed in May 2018.
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: madbluboy on February 18, 2019, 08:49:30 am
Bolton is on a contract that's apparently not a contract.
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: thefutureisblue on February 18, 2019, 09:28:04 am
I think the key difference is that if nothing happens with a regular contract, the contract will expire and the person would no longer be the coach. A new contract would need to be negotiated.

With Bolts, if nothing happens he will continue to be our coach indefinitely, maintaining the same conditions he has now.

Whilst it will never remove speculation about his position, it does remove the time pressure that all the others have as they reach the end of their contract period.
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: thefutureisblue on February 18, 2019, 09:44:03 am
I thought I'd dig up some stats from the last 10 seasons. These are examples of rapid rises up the ladder over 1 or 2 seasons.

14th > 2nd (1 season)
13 > 3 (1)
18 > 7 (1)
14 > 6 (1)
10 > 2 (1)
16 > 4 (2)
12 > 4 (1)
16 > 7 (2)
13 > 3 (1)
18 > 9 (2)
13 > 2 (2)
16 > 4 (1)
14 > 6 (1)

On average, 1 team will jump up 8+ ladder positions in a single season.
Who will it be this year?
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: DamonBlue on February 18, 2019, 10:19:04 am
The difficulty with predicting where we'll finish is that we could improve quite significantly without winning many more games. That is, we were so dreadful last year that marked improvement might not translate to wins.

This year, I'll be *happy* if we:
- win 5+
- beat someone in the top six; and
- don't lose more than 1 game by 40+.

That would set us up for a genuine climb the year after.

I'll be disappointed with anything less.
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: Thryleon on February 18, 2019, 10:19:45 am
Bolton is on a contract that's apparently not a contract.

This.

A rose is a rose, and by another name would smell the same.


The rest is just spin.  Perhaps he has more protection than the average contract, and is a permanent employee of the business, but a fixed term contract is no different to a regular contract.
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: DamonBlue on February 18, 2019, 10:22:15 am
I thought I'd dig up some stats from the last 10 seasons. These are examples of rapid rises up the ladder over 1 or 2 seasons.

14th > 2nd (1 season)
13 > 3 (1)
18 > 7 (1)
14 > 6 (1)
10 > 2 (1)
16 > 4 (2)
12 > 4 (1)
16 > 7 (2)
13 > 3 (1)
18 > 9 (2)
13 > 2 (2)
16 > 4 (1)
14 > 6 (1)

On average, 1 team will jump up 8+ ladder positions in a single season.
Who will it be this year?

That's really interesting - thanks, FIB.

Well, we can take out the top 7!!

I hate to say it - in fact I have a little bit of vomit in my mouth as I do - but I think the Bombres look the most likely.
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: Opine on February 18, 2019, 10:31:10 am
I think the key difference is that if nothing happens with a regular contract, the contract will expire and the person would no longer be the coach. A new contract would need to be negotiated.

With Bolts, if nothing happens he will continue to be our coach indefinitely, maintaining the same conditions he has now.

Whilst it will never remove speculation about his position, it does remove the time pressure that all the others have as they reach the end of their contract period.
It annoys me every time I read or hear a reference to his employment relationship communicated as though a non fixed term agreement is, by default, less certain that a fixed term agreement. The  distinction on its own is irrelevant; depending on how its done it may be even more secure.
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: flyboy77 on February 18, 2019, 12:24:53 pm
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/25993761/afl-draft-doerre-reselecting-top-20-2015-draft
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: Professer E on February 18, 2019, 06:04:20 pm
Sorry,  but hindsight analysis is utter crap.... And I don't rate his current predictions let alone him trawling through the past.
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: JonHenry on February 18, 2019, 07:06:40 pm
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/25993761/afl-draft-doerre-reselecting-top-20-2015-draft

Harry will improve that position imho
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: DJC on February 18, 2019, 08:05:26 pm
This.

A rose is a rose, and by another name would smell the same.


The rest is just spin.  Perhaps he has more protection than the average contract, and is a permanent employee of the business, but a fixed term contract is no different to a regular contract.

I really don't get this view.

AFL coaches have a contract with their clubs that sets out the term of the contract, remuneration, criteria for terminating the contract and, probably, performance criteria.  Bolton is employed by Carlton and both parties will have signed an employment agreement that specifies remuneration, superannuation, leave entitlements, sick leave and financial arrangements in the event of Carlton wishing to terminate Bolton's employment.  Bolton's employment is subject to the federal industrial relations system, contracted AFL coaches aren't.
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: Sexybronco on February 18, 2019, 09:39:01 pm
Sorry,  but hindsight analysis is utter crap.... And I don't rate his current predictions let alone him trawling through the past.

Weiters, Curnow and Harry were a great result from that draft. SOJ and Cunners are yet to make an impact although I do hold hope for both, SOJ has the smarts but needs to find a spot, Cunners needs a clear run to show what he's got. Can't complain about this draft result unlike countless others.
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: Thryleon on February 18, 2019, 10:45:22 pm
I really don't get this view.

AFL coaches have a contract with their clubs that sets out the term of the contract, remuneration, criteria for terminating the contract and, probably, performance criteria.  Bolton is employed by Carlton and both parties will have signed an employment agreement that specifies remuneration, superannuation, leave entitlements, sick leave and financial arrangements in the event of Carlton wishing to terminate Bolton's employment.  Bolton's employment is subject to the federal industrial relations system, contracted AFL coaches aren't.

I've been a fixed term contractor before.  There is minimal difference to contract term aside from leave benefits and even then sometimes contractors get provisions for that dependant on the contract.



Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: DJC on February 18, 2019, 11:09:15 pm
I've been a fixed term contractor before.  There is minimal difference to contract term aside from leave benefits and even then sometimes contractors get provisions for that dependant on the contract.

Fair enough - the industrial relations system that applies to all employees must be wrong  :)
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: Opine on February 19, 2019, 09:28:34 am
I've been a fixed term contractor before.  There is minimal difference to contract term aside from leave benefits and even then sometimes contractors get provisions for that dependant on the contract.

In the context of Bolton's security of tenure, that minimal difference may be rather significant. An independent contractor isn't protected against unfair dismissal; best he hope for is monetary compensation for the remaining term of the breached agreement. On the other hand, an employee is afforded a protection against unfair dismissal; monetary or reinstatement.
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: jeza on February 19, 2019, 10:15:38 am
This.

A rose is a rose, and by another name would smell the same.


The rest is just spin.  Perhaps he has more protection than the average contract, and is a permanent employee of the business, but a fixed term contract is no different to a regular contract.

Contracts mean nothing. If you're a coach and the team tanks the club will fire you no matter what contract you have in place. They will negotiate a settlement of course.

Bolton is a permanent employee with protections in his contract. If he gets fired he gets a payout. No different to a contract in reality. The benefit for everyone is there is no media hype about the impending end of a contract.
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: jeza on February 19, 2019, 12:04:45 pm
Weiters, Curnow and Harry were a great result from that draft. SOJ and Cunners are yet to make an impact although I do hold hope for both, SOJ has the smarts but needs to find a spot, Cunners needs a clear run to show what he's got. Can't complain about this draft result unlike countless others.

Agreed.

A bunch of the guys in that list were mature aged in the draft so that's kind of meaningless.
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: Thryleon on February 19, 2019, 12:06:23 pm
In the context of Bolton's security of tenure, that minimal difference may be rather significant. An independent contractor isn't protected against unfair dismissal; best he hope for is monetary compensation for the remaining term of the breached agreement. On the other hand, an employee is afforded a protection against unfair dismissal; monetary or reinstatement.

If Carlton want to sack Bolton, no industrial relations will keep him in the job, and he will be paid out accordingly.

Part of this deal will be an exit strategy for both coach and club in the event it all goes pear shaped, and keeping someone in place that either party doesnt want to be there is a recipe for doom.
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: madbluboy on February 19, 2019, 12:11:46 pm
Bolton is a permanent employee with protections in his contract.

I thought he had no contract?
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: LP on February 19, 2019, 12:54:38 pm
I thought he had no contract?

That is how I understood it, he's not on a contract but he is a fulltime employee of the club like an office manager and so he has protections like any other full-time employee under federal awards.
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: DJC on February 19, 2019, 01:01:04 pm
If Carlton want to sack Bolton, no industrial relations will keep him in the job, and he will be paid out accordingly.

Part of this deal will be an exit strategy for both coach and club in the event it all goes pear shaped, and keeping someone in place that either party doesnt want to be there is a recipe for doom.

It's unlikely that he would be reinstated but not impossible.  In that case, you would expect those involved in his removal to immediately resign.

Bolton's employment agreement has provisions for a financial settlement in the event of termination.  Initially it was to be triggered if he was terminated in the first two years of his employment but that has been extended to the end of the 2020 season.  Termination after that date would mean that he would receive whatever entitlements are due.  If the club was to renege, it would be grounds for an unfair dismissal process. That option would not be available to contracted coaches.
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: Gointocarlton on February 19, 2019, 01:35:15 pm
That is how I understood it, he's not on a contract but he is a fulltime employee of the club like an office manager and so he has protections like any other full-time employee under federal awards.
Most professional employees sign a contract.
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: jeza on February 19, 2019, 01:55:28 pm
Most professional employees sign a contract.

Yes - every employee signs a contract of some sort. It's different to being "on a contract" with a fixed term.
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: Thryleon on February 19, 2019, 04:55:32 pm
It's unlikely that he would be reinstated but not impossible.  In that case, you would expect those involved in his removal to immediately resign.

Bolton's employment agreement has provisions for a financial settlement in the event of termination.  Initially it was to be triggered if he was terminated in the first two years of his employment but that has been extended to the end of the 2020 season.  Termination after that date would mean that he would receive whatever entitlements are due.  If the club was to renege, it would be grounds for an unfair dismissal process. That option would not be available to contracted coaches.

1.  If Carlton want Bolton gone, they will dismiss him and pay him out accordingly which will be all that matters (most contracted coaches end up in the same boat).

2.  Any employee in these situations ends up in a situation of pain, and the employers move on pretty quickly if they wish (with some more hurdles to jump over to achieve it).  IF the industrial relations process occur, all that usually amounts to is different termination conditions, and/or a shuffle of said staff into different roles to meet the conditions as laid out in the employment contract or agreement.

3.  All of it is literally just semantics.  The same dynamics between employer and employee are generally equal with other AFL senior coaches.


Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: Opine on February 20, 2019, 09:23:27 am
1.  If Carlton want Bolton gone, they will dismiss him and pay him out accordingly which will be all that matters (most contracted coaches end up in the same boat).

2.  Any employee in these situations ends up in a situation of pain, and the employers move on pretty quickly if they wish (with some more hurdles to jump over to achieve it).  IF the industrial relations process occur, all that usually amounts to is different termination conditions, and/or a shuffle of said staff into different roles to meet the conditions as laid out in the employment contract or agreement.

3.  All of it is literally just semantics.  The same dynamics between employer and employee are generally equal with other AFL senior coaches.

The way that it may, or may not, be likely play out is a separate issue. That  coach and club have agreed to come together under a regime that provides a third party the power to determine whether a termination is unfair is not semantics. It's not a situation that clubs are used to being in.
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: flyboy77 on February 20, 2019, 09:41:52 am
The issue is being overthought.

If any Club wants their Coach gone, then he will be GONE.

I think BB will need a few good wins eg an upset over a good side (RD 1 would be nice!) + a couple of others before the break or the knives will come out.....

Looking at the draw, could we eat Port rd 2? Not out of the question.

Swans at Docklands? Yep, possibly.

GC up north - hopefully!!

Bulldogs at Docklands - sure.

Hawks in Tassie? Yep, no Mitchell....

Norf at Marvel? Maybe.

Pies at the G? hmmmm

GWS up there? Tough.

But it's hardly a terrible draw - there are numerous winnable games there.....
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: DamonBlue on February 20, 2019, 10:14:51 am
The issue is being overthought.

If any Club wants their Coach gone, then he will be GONE.

I think BB will need a few good wins eg an upset over a good side (RD 1 would be nice!) + a couple of others before the break or the knives will come out.....

Looking at the draw, could we eat Port rd 2? Not out of the question.

Swans at Docklands? Yep, possibly.

GC up north - hopefully!!

Bulldogs at Docklands - sure.

Hawks in Tassie? Yep, no Mitchell....

Norf at Marvel? Maybe.

Pies at the G? hmmmm

GWS up there? Tough.

But it's hardly a terrible draw - there are numerous winnable games there.....

Yep, we certainly won't have the draw to blame, FB.

I'm looking for at least 5 wins, as a pass mark.

We play both St Kilda and GC twice - we should win at least 3 of them.

We should win one of the Bulldogs games - play them twice also.

The Lions at the 'G in round 8 - we should get up.

That's five very winnable games already, and I think we'll upset at least one side. As you say, FB, hopefully in Round 1!
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: flyboy77 on February 20, 2019, 11:26:56 am
There are two sides to the equation - the sides that will improve - markedly or modestly.

Those who will slip or stay static - ageing list, poor drafting, injury

Goes without saying CFC will be an improver. Question is how much!

Teams that will slide imo:

1. GC (lack of quality, losing Lynch, May)
2. Hawks (no Mitchell, ageing list).
3. Cats (Ablett coming 'home' was a mistake).
4. Sydney (Lance will stop being a force sooner than later, midfield not what it was, ordinary back line).
5.  North (they over achieved in 2018).
6. Tigers too? Will Lynch add or detract from team balance? Will their ordinary ruck brigade finally come home to roost?

Teams that will remain same same:

7. Freo - losing Neale a huge loss. Hogan? meh....he doesn't seem overly interested in footy.
8. Brisbane (everybody loves them but don't see why their improvement should be anything near ours - guys like Robbo, Rich getting on, no Beams, no Rockliff - other than Neale who's A grade in their midfield?)
9. Port (just don't see it with these guys....they've bought players to get them a flag tilt but Watts et al aren't going to get them there).
10. Pies - overachievers in 2018 but kudos to them.
11. West Coast - hard to beat, especially in Perth.
12 Saints - another team where I simply don't see it - is Hanneberry getting $800k a year? Will he produce? Doubtful, very. All that paycheck will do is add to disharmony....
13. GWS - still a force but will Kelly,Hopper,Coniglio be thinking about possible moves in 2020 and lack the required focus?
14. Bulldogs - middle of the road - lack class in numbers....

Improvers:

15. Dees (young blokes getting into the peak zone, Steven May).
16. Crows (only because they were so ordinary in 2018) - plenty of quality in that list.
17. Essendon (Shiel et al and Daniher back) - hate them but they'll make the 8.
18. The mighty Blues - again, how much can we improve rapidly (using our 2017 season as a relevant benchmark - won 6 games, 9 other games lost by 4 goals or less - beating GWS,Sydney, Pies,Essendon, Hawks and GC)?



Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: Opine on February 20, 2019, 12:08:50 pm
There are two sides to the equation - the sides that will improve - markedly or modestly.

Those who will slip or stay static - ageing list, poor drafting, injury

Goes without saying CFC will be an improver. Question is how much!

Teams that will slide imo:

1. GC (lack of quality, losing Lynch, May)
2. Hawks (no Mitchell, ageing list).
3. Cats (Ablett coming 'home' was a mistake).
4. Sydney (Lance will stop being a force sooner than later, midfield not what it was, ordinary back line).
5.  North (they over achieved in 2018).
6. Tigers too? Will Lynch add or detract from team balance? Will their ordinary ruck brigade finally come home to roost?

Teams that will remain same same:

7. Freo - losing Neale a huge loss. Hogan? meh....he doesn't seem overly interested in footy.
8. Brisbane (everybody loves them but don't see why their improvement should be anything near ours - guys like Robbo, Rich getting on, no Beams, no Rockliff - other than Neale who's A grade in their midfield?)
9. Port (just don't see it with these guys....they've bought players to get them a flag tilt but Watts et al aren't going to get them there).
10. Pies - overachievers in 2018 but kudos to them.
11. West Coast - hard to beat, especially in Perth.
12 Saints - another team where I simply don't see it - is Hanneberry getting $800k a year? Will he produce? Doubtful, very. All that paycheck will do is add to disharmony....
13. GWS - still a force but will Kelly,Hopper,Coniglio be thinking about possible moves in 2020 and lack the required focus?
14. Bulldogs - middle of the road - lack class in numbers....

Improvers:

15. Dees (young blokes getting into the peak zone, Steven May).
16. Crows (only because they were so ordinary in 2018) - plenty of quality in that list.
17. Essendon (Shiel et al and Daniher back) - hate them but they'll make the 8.
18. The mighty Blues - again, how much can we improve rapidly (using our 2017 season as a relevant benchmark - won 6 games, 9 other games lost by 4 goals or less - beating GWS,Sydney, Pies,Essendon, Hawks and GC)?

That's a fairly good assessment. 
Not sure the Crow's will improve that much, if at all. I have them in the status quo category; at least I hope so.
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: DamonBlue on February 20, 2019, 12:42:06 pm
That's a fairly good assessment. 
Not sure the Crow's will improve that much, if at all. I have them in the status quo category; at least I hope so.

I'd move Sydney and Tigers to "remain the same". Franklin, Reiwoldt and Lynch will all benefit from the new rules and that will keep them up there.

Saints will slide, IMO. Richo's tenure looks very shaky and Geary's recent comments make it even worse, suggesting there's a lack of connection between the players and the coach. Ratts in the background too. I just think they're too unstable to go anywhere but down and the Hannebury thing is a mistake.
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: Opine on February 20, 2019, 12:46:32 pm
I'd move Sydney and Tigers to "remain the same". Franklin, Reiwoldt and Lynch will all benefit from the new rules and that will keep them up there.

Saints will slide, IMO. Richo's tenure looks very shaky and Geary's recent comments make it even worse, suggesting there's a lack of connection between the players and the coach. Ratts in the background too. I just think they're too unstable to go anywhere but down and the Hannebury thing is a mistake.
Good point re Saints.
Have a read of this re possible impact of new rules on Tigers; https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-02-19/why-666-rule-could-force-tigers-into-a-radical-shakeup
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: DamonBlue on February 20, 2019, 01:09:17 pm
Good point re Saints.
Have a read of this re possible impact of new rules on Tigers; https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-02-19/why-666-rule-could-force-tigers-into-a-radical-shakeup

Interesting article, Opine - thanks. Quite incredible how seldom they used the 6-6-6 set-up. Interesting too that we used it 43% of the time.
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: LP on February 20, 2019, 03:24:20 pm
Interesting article, Opine - thanks. Quite incredible how seldom they used the 6-6-6 set-up. Interesting too that we used it 43% of the time.

I suppose if you've a young list you have no choice to let them learn the basics first.
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: shawny on February 20, 2019, 06:33:27 pm
Wasn’t sure where to put this but I’m told Gibbs said on MMM radio this afternoon when quizzed that crows had a disappointing 2018 he replied with ‘yes it was only 12 wins but 10 more then I would have had if I was still at Carlton’

Hope that comment is used to fire up the boys
when we play the pr1ck this year.
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: Jack Burton on February 20, 2019, 08:29:56 pm
This was taken way out of context. He was responding to a question by a hack that his 2018 had been a disaster, and he was just saying it wasn't that bad, better than his previous few seasons, no malice at all, just a beat up by the hacks
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: Gointocarlton on February 20, 2019, 08:54:15 pm
Wasn’t sure where to put this but I’m told Gibbs said on MMM radio this afternoon when quizzed that crows had a disappointing 2018 he replied with ‘yes it was only 12 wins but 10 more then I would have had if I was still at Carlton’

Hope that comment is used to fire up the boys
when we play the pr1ck this year.
Them's are fighting words Bryce. Game on bitch!
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: jeza on February 20, 2019, 10:35:14 pm
I'd move Sydney and Tigers to "remain the same". Franklin, Reiwoldt and Lynch will all benefit from the new rules and that will keep them up there.

Saints will slide, IMO. Richo's tenure looks very shaky and Geary's recent comments make it even worse, suggesting there's a lack of connection between the players and the coach. Ratts in the background too. I just think they're too unstable to go anywhere but down and the Hannebury thing is a mistake.

The Hawks are the most vulnerable for me.

With Mitchell gone they are in a position before the season starts that one more significant injury could be the last step off the cliff. 36 year old Burgoyne? Really? Coming off his worst season since 2005.

Tom Scully with a car crash ankle? Trading out their one good youngster plus a 1st rounder for Wingard?

A lot hanging off O'Meara's few remaining fibres in that knee.

Smells of complete desperation.

Those are the sort of moves a club makes when a senior coach is more powerful than the list manager. I bet Clarko won't be putting his hand up to take the blame if and when it all goes t!ts up.
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: LP on February 21, 2019, 08:04:01 am
The rule changes are going to almost change which players are the games superstars, so who is important is hard to determine at this stage.
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: malo on February 21, 2019, 08:19:27 am
Sorry,  but hindsight analysis is utter crap.... And I don't rate his current predictions let alone him trawling through the past.

Agree entirely.....to quote the great Mick Thomas.....

"Pity you can't put a bet on at the finish of a race"....Mondays Experts - Weddings Parties Anything - 1993

But gee, the media love it don't they ?  Most of them wouldn't have a job if they couldn't piffle on about what "shoulda/coodabeen"

Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: stevie-poo on February 21, 2019, 08:29:11 am
Pffftt that bloody sheep dog new exactly what he was saying - Hope the boys remind him of it later in the year!
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: LP on February 21, 2019, 09:54:26 am
This was taken way out of context. He was responding to a question by a hack that his 2018 had been a disaster, and he was just saying it wasn't that bad, better than his previous few seasons, no malice at all, just a beat up by the hacks

You can take comments like that however you like, which is why you have to be careful answering questions knowing they will distort the answer.

We could also say that "Gibb's move to the Crows dragged them down!"
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: Tragic on February 21, 2019, 03:23:52 pm
As much as I've always liked Bryce as a player, it kinda sums him up.  Near enough is good enough it seems to me...
Title: Re: Pelchen's permutations and prognostications
Post by: madbluboy on February 21, 2019, 06:11:10 pm
As much as I've always liked Bryce as a player, it kinda sums him up.  Near enough is good enough it seems to me...

Agreed. Happy with 12 wins despite being flag favourites at the start of the year.