Carlton Supporters Club

John Ralph goes bang!

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/the-list-manager-jon-ralph-runs-the-rule-over-carltons-current-group-its-future-and-everything-in-between/news-story/988704ed67c6bcf7d8ec7c1c73085407

The List Manager: Jon Ralph runs the rule over Carlton’s current group, its future and everything in between
The Blues won’t have a better chance to end their flag drought than 2024 with how their list is placed. Jon Ralph dives deep into where the Carlton list is right now and how it could change.

It’s go time.
Nearly 30 years on from the 1995 premiership win, Carlton will never have a better chance to hold the cup aloft than in 2024.

It wants for nothing on any line, has assembled an array of match-winning stars that eclipses any team in the competition and enters 2024 brimming with momentum.

In the late-season charge that included 11 wins in 13 games (including two finals victories) the Blues conquered Sydney, Port Adelaide, Collingwood, St Kilda, Melbourne (twice) and the Suns (twice).

With any luck the Blues will hit round 1 with Harry McKay, Zac Williams, Sam Walsh and Jack Martin fully fit after various injuries through 2023.

And they should believe the premiership can be theirs next year.

TRADE PERIOD OUT OF TEN

Rating: 7/10

Carlton admitted its salary cap was close to overflowing so it prioritised retention, an improved draft hand, points for 2024 father-sons Ben and Lucas Camporeale and a trade for No. 7 draft pick Elijah Hollands.

It ticked all of those boxes, even if the shock of the trade period was Hollands’ drug charge that only emerged the day after the trade period.

Carlton has done its due diligence on Hollands – and approval from the coaching group, leadership group and board – and believes he is not a rotten apple but rather a young kid who will learn from his mistake.

The Blues traded pick 17 and eventually turned it into picks 22 and 28 as part of the Zac Fisher move to the Roos, also clearing cap space.

They cleared inside mid Paddy Dow for very little but believed they owed it to him to find his preferred home.

Carlton will back Hollands, brother Ollie, Matt Cottrell and second-year mid Jaxon Binns to fill Dow’s role and Lachie Cowan, Zac Williams and Alex Cincotta to fill Fisher’s role, with neither of Dow or Fisher playing a final last year.

The Blues 2024 national draft hand has them stocked with a trio of back-end picks, so they have accrued enough points if both Camporeale boys are taken in the top 30 of the draft.

Then came the throw at the stumps – a two-year deal for injury-prone Orazio Fantasia that has plenty of upside and not much risk.

LIST HOLES

Carlton has talent to burn on every line.

The midfield has elite match winners (Patrick Cripps, Adam Cerra), outside pace (Sam Walsh, Ollie Holland), and depth (Matt Kennedy, George Hewett).

Michael Voss has a pair of complementary rucks (Marc Pittonet, Tom De Koning).

The backline has a defensive pillar (Jacob Weitering), a strong interceptor (Mitch McGovern), three more talls competing for spots (Brodie Kemp, Caleb Marchbank, Lewis Young) and a bevy of lockdown and rebounding smalls.

And the list demographic is spectacular with Ed Curnow’s retirement meaning only Nic Newman and Sam Docherty are 30 or over.

The stars are all in their sweet spot – Cripps at 28, Weitering only 26 in November, Harry McKay 26 in December, Cerra 24, Walsh 23, Charlie Curnow 27 in February.

While there are only 14 players under 24 on the list many of them have real promise – 22-year-old Kemp, 19-year-old Jesse Motlop, 19-year-old Ollie Hollands, 21-year-old Corey Durdin, 21-year-old Elijah Hollands, second-year outside runner Jaxon Binns.

Elijah Hollands and Fantasia will both play half forward to add experience to a group of small and medium-sized forward that hasn’t had an on-field leader since Eddie Betts and is probably the one area that needs improvement.

So to frank this spectacularly talented list Michael Voss needs to turn individual finals cameos into entire 2024 campaigns.

Tom De Koning could be a top-five ruckman in the comp if he can replicate his semi-final against Melbourne – two goals, 15 touches, 12 contested possessions, profound influence.

And Harry McKay doesn’t need to be the 58-goal hero of 2021, he only needs to play his part as he did selflessly handing goals to Sam Docherty and Charlie Curnow early in the elimination final victory over Sydney.

DRAFT STRATEGY

The Blues would love to move up from picks 22 and 28 but don’t have the draft capital so will likely take only those two picks, put Orazio Fantasia on the primary list and take one selection in the rookie draft.

The beauty of having such a balanced list is Carlton can keep adding depth without having to reach for any particular type of player.

Last year it was an elite running mid in Ollie Hollands (pick 11), a flint-hard defender in Lachie Cowan (pick 30), a quality mid in Jaxon Binns (pick 32) and a project forward in Harry Lemmey (pick 47) plus summer rookie Alex Cincotta.

With the Camporeale brothers coming in for the 2025 season as hard running mids and flankers next year, the Blues could consider taller prospects this year including 203cm key position player Archer Reid.

WHO’S UNDER THE PUMP?

Zac Williams has played only 23 games across three of his six contracted seasons because of injury, tearing his ACL in February after an excellent summer.

Carlton still has high hopes for him but there will be pressure to perform and competition for spots with Adam Saad, Sam Docherty, Nic Newman, Brodie Kemp, Alex Cincotta and Lachie Cowan all keen to play as small or mid-sized defenders.

PREMIERSHIP WINDOW

Dean Bailey once said the Demons would open the “bi-fold doors” to a premiership window given how wide it could be, but it is Carlton in that position.

The Blues should set themselves for a five-year window where their stars are all at the peak of their powers.

THE TOP 100

PLAYERS WHO MADE THE TOP 100 IN THE AFL PLAYER RANKINGS IN 2023 AND A 2024 BOLTER

Charlie Curnow (31st), Adam Cerra (40th), Patrick Cripps (54th), Sam Walsh (63rd), Jacob Weitering (89th), Adam Saad (91st).

Harry McKay was the 353rd ranked player this year as he battled injury and form.

As above, he only needs to play his role. But he has pledged to put in place an off-season goalkicking routine overhaul that should get him back into the top 100.

TRADE TARGETS FOR 2024

Something would have to go badly wrong for the Blues to need to splash the cash on a big-name free agent and their picks will be taken up by the Camporeale boys.

The Blues can again consider low-cost big-upside plays like Orazio Fantasia, set to join them this week as a delisted free agent.

SALARY CAP SPACE

Mid-season the Blues looked to have cap space to spare but was surprised when both Tom De Koning and Jack Silvagni stayed, with David Cuningham, Lachie Fogarty and Caleb Marchbank all winning new deals.

So the Blues are again fairly tight in the cap but will have some space for the kind of targeted acquisitions that brought in Acres last year and Hollands this year.

Carlton admits it is top-heavy in wages with the Blues not getting much change from $3 million from McKay, Curnow and Cripps’ deals next year.

Walsh, Williams and Weitering are among those on $800,000 a season but the Blues will go to the draft this year and next so while they are in retention mode they have their cap issues in hand.

Mitch McGovern’s $800,000K a year deal finished last year while Jack Martin’s lucrative five-year deal of $600,000 a season was front-ended and expires at the end of 2024.

TRADE BAIT

Give full back Lewis Young all the credit in the world for realising he had to work on his weaknesses rather than asking for a trade when pushed into the VFL.

But if he can’t find a spot in the back six he is too good to continue playing VFL in 2025 despite a three-year deal to 2026.

Carlton believes Marc Pittonet and De Koning work perfectly in unison – Pittonet bashing up his opponent then De Koning jumping over the top of them.

So it would take De Koning going to another level for Pittonet to be pushed out of the side, which would spark trade inquiries.

CARLTON CRYSTAL BALL

2024 FINISH
1st. Going all in on the Blues but what do they want for in talent?

2024 BEST AND FAIREST
Sam Walsh. Was Carlton’s best finals player and finished eighth in the John Nicholls trophy despite missing eight games.

2024 LEADING GOAL KICKER
Charlie Curnow. How can you go past him?

PLAYER ON THE RISE
Matt Cottrell. A point of difference in the midfield with his speed. 17 possessions at 91 per cent efficiency and seven score involvements in the Sydney finals win. Can he churn out eight games of that standard?

PLAYER ON THE EDGE
Jack Silvagni. Blues fans were thrilled he signed on, but now comes the challenge of establishing himself as a regular best-22 player.

I'm not sure what his prophetic track record is like, but it's very much a wait and see for me. I'd be happy with a top 4 finish, happyish with a top 8 finish. I think you need to be around the mark for a few seasons before you can iron out all the kinks. We will need plenty of luck with injuries, and especially with our prime movers Weitering, Walsh, Cripps and Charlie Curnow.

Poured the Acid on the coach is the way I read it.  Succeed or else.  If we have a middling year, we have no where to go with Voss contract situtation.

A team that was bottom 4 halfway through the year is now the best team in the land in 2024?

Thats some turnaround. How does Vossy not win the coach of the year?

What he says is all well and good, but i noticed none of our players featured, and there was no mention of, the injury list.

Lose Weitering and Charlie and there goes your season because we don't have any depth to cover them.

To win a flag, you need more than just talent and a good list. You need your fair share of luck.

Rather than any particular 'diamond in the rough' or young talented kid through the draft making an impact in year 1 ala Sam Walsh, i'd be hoping for bucket loads of luck. That will have more say than any one change we could make between now and then.

It's a top four list.
I don't think there is any doubt about that.

Poured the Acid on the coach is the way I read it.  Succeed or else.  If we have a middling year, we have no where to go with Voss contract situtation.

Tend to agree, lot of pressure on Voss to deliver and not much margin for error after that article.
I'll be happy to make the eight and be consistent through the season, the problem with articles like this is that they dont account for other teams improving and at what rate and you cant get a handle on who are the favourites till about 2/3 of the way through the season when injury tolls have mounted and the draw starts to also help dictate winners where teams having the bulk of their games at home get an advantage in the run home.
As Brisbane have found you can be a consistent top 4/8 finisher but another team will pop up out of nowhere and win the premiership especially if they bank wins early and can overcome that flat spot that a lot of teams have during the season. ie Collingwood.

Poured the Acid on the coach is the way I read it.  Succeed or else.  If we have a middling year, we have no where to go with Voss contract situtation.

Somehow I don't think our board will take much notice of anything Ralph writes.  Vossy secured his immediate future by winning two finals.  In the unlikely event that we don't improve in 2024, winning those two finals means that Vossy still has credit for a contract extension.

Jon Ralph loves talking us up so he can smirk when (he hopes) it doesn't happen.  I'm sure his Richmond boyhood dreams were smothered in Navy Blue nightmares...... 

Jon Ralph loves talking us up so he can smirk when (he hopes) it doesn't happen.  I'm sure his Richmond boyhood dreams were smothered in Navy Blue nightmares......

Nothing wrong about anything he wrote. If we dont make the top 4 next year, 95% of this sites posters will go apoplectic

Nothing wrong about anything he wrote. If we dont make the top 4 next year, 95% of this sites posters will go apoplectic

Agree.....bar has been raised and with it expectations.

If we dont make the top 4 next year, 95% of this sites posters will go apoplectic

@Kruddler is correct, our fate doesn't just rest on delivering, it's just an injury or two away from derailment.

Under the current AFL TPP system most clubs have weak spots on list, clubs just can't afford to have depth in every position so they are forced to accept some risk. If you are lucky you get an low rate of injuries and a team can do a Dogs, but have a bad year and the best will fail.

So I don't think we would be apoplectic under any circumstance, but only if we burn our opportunities due to waste form or lack of effort.

Nothing wrong about anything he wrote. If we dont make the top 4 next year, 95% of this sites posters will go apoplectic

I agree that 95% of gooses will lose their feeble minds but anyone with 1/2 a brain should be able to figure out that 11 wins does not = a premiership…
We struggled at the end of the season with injury, mental and emotional fatigue but also because the opposition had looked us up and down and were countering our strengths.
Playing next year like the back end of 2023 will see us mid table… we need to lift and develop new strategies.
Many a team has made the 8 only to flounder the following couple of years, our goal is to play finals again and make the top 4, beyond that it’s mostly luck…

Playing next year like the back end of 2023 will see us mid table… we need to lift and develop new strategies.
 
Many a team has made the 8 only to flounder the following couple of years, our goal is to play finals again and make the top 4, beyond that it’s mostly luck…

Not sure we'll ever find more intensity than we had in the later half of last season, but developing new strategies to deal with opposition tactics is a must.

The difference between true believers and ratbag fans is the last bit highlighted, the ratbags don't get it.

You can have Moneyball quality list managements, Bellyache quality coaching, but get an injury to the wrong player at the wrong time and your season is stuffed. For example, if Cripps had picked up whatever it was he picked up in Rnd 3 instead of Rnd 18 or so, we would never have recovered our ladder position last season.

The ratbag fans(We have some high profile ones) will claim we must have a backup / sub for a Cripps / Walsh type, well good luck with that. A club can find ways to support it's better players, put some foundations in place around them, but having a backup for a Cripps or Walsh type is pure fantasy.

My expectation is that we'll win the whole bloody thing.
Anything less, and I'll be sad  :'(

We have the side that's capable.
We just need it all to click, some natural improvement... and a bit of luck.
The thing about our side is that we have few if any players who are on the downslide.
They're either at their peak or yet to reach it.

One thing for sure, this team can enter the 2024 season KNOWING that they are good enough.  Prior to this, the hype at the start of every year was more about hope than belief.

Confidence and belief is what takes a talented team from middle-of-the-pack to top-of-the-tree.

I think that Ralph’s article is pretty close to the mark; on paper, at least, we are a genuine contender.

Earlier in the year, I thought that list deficiencies would hold us back.  The sustained return to fitness of Walsh, Martin, McGovern, Cuningham and Marchbank, the emergence of Kemp, Motlop, Cottrell and Boyd as genuine AFL-level footballers, Cerra and De Koning stepping up a level, Acres showing his true potential (and luck), and Cincotta, Cowan and Hollands making impressive debuts, with Binns not far off, has changed my mind; Vossy has got the cattle he needs.

Moving on players who weren’t quite good enough - Philp, Fisher, Dow, Honey and O’Brien - and those whose best footy is behind them - Ed and Plow - strengthens our list; provided Nick Austin nails the replacements.

Despite some supporters expressing concerns about how we’d go if Cripps, Walsh or Weitering was injured, we have adequate replacements and the players who can step up in their absence.  Even if Mirkov, O’Keeffe and Lemmey aren’t up to AFL standard yet, we do have options in the event of our rucks or KPPs missing through injury or suspension.

If we are fortunate on the injury front, our youngsters continue to develop, Austin’s list management decisions continue to pay off, the tweaks to the gameplan work. and we have a bit of luck, we’re definitely in with a chance.

Now, if one or both of the Irish boys becomes the next Zach Tuohy …

My view is that we will win the Premiership unless we don't. Carlton has a recent past history of smugness and self satisfaction and accepting mediocrity as to our start to last season demonstrated. I think we have all the pieces but it is what goes on inside the minds of the players, the coaches and the administration that will determine our success. Let's not get ahead of ourselves and let's just enjoy the journey.
But it would be good.

Jon Ralph has about as much credibility as a tea leaf reader

Well, I had us making a prelim based on early season form this year. We dropped off the perch then came back from the dead. If we can just play reasonably consistent football, then we can go three wins or better improvement than this year. That should ensure a top 4 position.

A full year with Walsh in the side will do absolute wonders for us. Will do so for a bashed up Cripps as well. Add Cerra and rotations from Hewett, Kennedy, Fogarty, Cuningham, E. Hollands and/or even Carroll, you can't stop them all.
How will Williams go next year? How much can he improve us if he gets back to full fitness? Lots of depth on the HB line. Lots of depth there.
TDK looks ready to step up another notch again. Pittonet or Silvagni will be there with him. O'Keeffe at least another year away, but we have ruck options.
Some fresh faces introduced in Kemp and Motlop, Binns could play lots of games. Who else could there be?
Acres came in as an experienced player and did his deed. Can Fantasia do the same? Hopefully he can, he is an experienced player in that area of the ground, where we only really have Martin, though he is a more general forward.
Can Young come back in to cement his spot? He's an option at least if Weitering misses games. Kemp, McGovern, Marchbank and to an extent, Cincotta for aerial intercepts, the first three, though not necessarily desirable but if need be, as a second key tall partner option.
The biggest need next year if we're to go all the way, is our two key forwards to stay fit. Not much else there. What can we do if one or jeepers, both go down? That could royally screw us next year. Options would be to swing McGovern down there, would definitely prefer him over Kemp, let Kemp settle into his role and the level first. JSOS as an smaller size key forward. de Koning can still improve his craft as well, he showed he can kick them as an emergency resting second key forward against Melbourne.
If Martin and Fantasia can stay fit, along with the two key talls, Motlop continues to improve, there's five dangerous forwards. This is where the difference to reaching a flag could rest at.
This year was a wonderful ride, makes up for last year and more than that. Now is the time to at least repeat it and with an optimistic view, go further. Yes, the expectations will be on here. Let's end this long-suffering pain again.

My expectation is that we'll win the whole bloody thing.
Anything less, and I'll be sad  :'(

We have the side that's capable.
We just need it all to click, some natural improvement... and a bit of luck.
The thing about our side is that we have few if any players who are on the downslide.
They're either at their peak or yet to reach it.

Countering that, Newman played out of his skin and is anyone seriously expecting Acres to back up to the same level ? Hollands ?
Can someone else step up and cover ?

Maybe Acres and Hollands won’t get much attention next year, after all league wide, everyone seems to let wingers run free…

Countering that, Newman played out of his skin and is anyone seriously expecting Acres to back up to the same level ? Hollands ?
Can someone else step up and cover ?

Maybe Acres and Hollands won’t get much attention next year, after all league wide, everyone seems to let wingers run free…

I reckon they'll all be as good or better.
Young Hollands will be better for the year's experience, plus a first real pre-season.
Older Hollands has to prove himself so if he has any character he should be fine, because he does have ability.

Acres played the last part of the year with half an upper body.
and
Newman will be consistent again.

Countering that, Newman played out of his skin and is anyone seriously expecting Acres to back up to the same level ? Hollands ?
Can someone else step up and cover ?

Maybe Acres and Hollands won’t get much attention next year, after all league wide, everyone seems to let wingers run free…

These players shine, when your team is getting good.  When was the last time a player looked like a spud in a good side?

In terms of backing up, all they have to do is play their role every week, and they will look like a million bucks.

You know what my concern is for my team moving forward?

Egos.  I want to be captain, I want to be best on ground, I want to be the fan favourite, I want to play selfish football and be the star.

Stronger together, and play your role. 

I reckon they'll all be as good or better.
Young Hollands will be better for the year's experience, plus a first real pre-season.

In the greater scheme of things, it's highly unlikely the Hollands or Cowan will escape the 2nd year blues.

If they don't escape the 2nd year blues it's no big deal, it happens to 99.5% of players.

If the do then you need to take note because they are the exceptions and you can count the exceptions on one hand, a player like Walsh being one of them. Others that have escaped it include Judd, Martin and Selwood, which by definition means it's not very common.

Countering that, Newman played out of his skin and is anyone seriously expecting Acres to back up to the same level ? Hollands ?
Can someone else step up and cover ?

Maybe Acres and Hollands won’t get much attention next year, after all league wide, everyone seems to let wingers run free…

100%

Happens to every club every year.
Some players get better.
Some players play the same.
Some players play worse.

This can happen for.a variety of reasons, not least of which is injury.

Anyone extrapolating form based on nothing but the best possible output from all 40+ players on the list is destined for disappointment. It's not possible.

In the greater scheme of things, it's highly unlikely the Hollands or Cowan will escape the 2nd year blues.

If they don't escape the 2nd year blues it's no big deal, it happens to 99.5% of players.

If the do then you need to take note because they are the exceptions and you can count the exceptions on one hand, a player like Walsh being one of them. Others that have escaped it include Judd, Martin and Selwood, which by definition means it's not very common.

Yep.  To go with that, the guys that are young and struggled a bit this year are likely to replace them in that equation, so you might see Ollie drop off, only for Elijah/Binns to fill that void, and Durdin to come back in.  Not to mention draftee number 20/28.

In the greater scheme of things, it's highly unlikely the Hollands or Cowan will escape the 2nd year blues.

If they don't escape the 2nd year blues it's no big deal, it happens to 99.5% of players.

If the do then you need to take note because they are the exceptions and you can count the exceptions on one hand, a player like Walsh being one of them. Others that have escaped it include Judd, Martin and Selwood, which by definition means it's not very common.

The "second year blues" is largely a figment of some fans' imaginations.

Weitering didn't quite live up to expectations in his second season because he was played out of position.  Blokes like Acres, Kemp and McKay didn't do so well because they hadn't established a place in the team or were battling injuries.  Others like Cripps, Walsh, Silvagni, Cottrell, both Curnows, Hewett, Kennedy, Gibbs, Murphy, Motlop, Cerra, etc, etc either maintained their form or stepped up a notch.

The "second year blues" is largely a figment of some fans' imaginations.

Weitering didn't quite live up to expectations in his second season because he was played out of position.  Blokes like Acres, Kemp and McKay didn't do so well because they hadn't established a place in the team or were battling injuries.  Others like Cripps, Walsh, Silvagni, Cottrell, both Curnows, Hewett, Kennedy, Gibbs, Murphy, Motlop, Cerra, etc, etc either maintained their form or stepped up a notch.

2nd year blues is a symptom of being the system long enough for the opposition to build a portfolio of your strengths and weaknesses, it is not related to the stats or the year of draft.

It's about finding ways to continue to influence games when the opposition have learnt how to make you uncomfortable or ineffective, and it's very real. Virtually every players suffers it, because they are facing opponents for a 2nd or 3rd time and the honeymoon is over, they are no longer known unknowns.

A great example, after his breakthrough season opposition started pushing Cripps onto his left side, he still got plenty of footy after all he is almost unstoppable, but his effectiveness diminished. He could barely make contact with his left foot and he started doing blind over the shoulder handballs and the like. Over the next couple of seasons he developed ways to give himself time and space so he could be more effective. Only recently he's started using his left foot, it's still not great but it buys him even more time and space because opponents can no longer just force him that way.

We are at the stage now where we just aim for the flag. I always felt this year was our 1978 before our 1979. Situation very similar. Next year we are capable of dominating.

Kane Kornes has picked us for the flag.

Kane Kornes has picked us for the flag.

He's setting the bar at the highest level so he can say we didn't live up to expectations if we only make a prelim. ;)

Just on Ollie Hollands....you could probably argue he had his 'second year blues' (if you believe in such a thing) in the second half of the year, after he was injured.
This kid is made of pretty stern stuff.
Don't write his 2024 off too soon.

As Kruddler said some players get better.
Some perform worse.
If your club has more players going better there's a fair chance you get a better ladder position...even if other clubs also improve.
Some may even overtake you...but our players are all the right side of their prime or already there.

The expectation is improvement, and from third position after finals... guess where that puts us.

2nd year blues is a symptom of being the system long enough for the opposition to build a portfolio of your strengths and weaknesses, it is not related to the stats or the year of draft.

It's about finding ways to continue to influence games when the opposition have learnt how to make you uncomfortable or ineffective, and it's very real. Virtually every players suffers it, because they are facing opponents for a 2nd or 3rd time and the honeymoon is over, they are no longer known unknowns.

A great example, after his breakthrough season opposition started pushing Cripps onto his left side, he still got plenty of footy after all he is almost unstoppable, but his effectiveness diminished. He could barely make contact with his left foot and he started doing blind over the shoulder handballs and the like. Over the next couple of seasons he developed ways to give himself time and space so he could be more effective. Only recently he's started using his left foot, it's still not great but it buys him even more time and space because opponents can no longer just force him that way.

That is seriously underrating Crippa’s performance in his second season - when he won his first JNM - as well as conceding that he didn’t suffer from the mythical second year blues.

It’s a fan’s concept that doesn’t happen in the real world.

Kane Kornes has picked us for the flag.

He went the early crow with Collingwood before last season 🤔

Kane Kornes has picked us for the flag.

God, we're in real trouble!

He's setting the bar at the highest level so he can say we didn't live up to expectations if we only make a prelim. ;)

Just on Ollie Hollands....you could probably argue he had his 'second year blues' (if you believe in such a thing) in the second half of the year, after he was injured.
This kid is made of pretty stern stuff.
Don't write his 2024 off too soon.

As Kruddler said some players get better.
Some perform worse.
If your club has more players going better there's a fair chance you get a better ladder position...even if other clubs also improve.
Some may even overtake you...but our players are all the right side of their prime or already there.

The expectation is improvement, and from third position after finals... guess where that puts us.

Ollie was dropped late in the year, in hindsight it may have had more to do with the news of his mothers condition than his ability to perform.

That is seriously underrating Crippa’s performance in his second season - when he won his first JNM - as well as conceding that he didn’t suffer from the mythical second year blues.

It’s a fan’s concept that doesn’t happen in the real world.

It's not about stats or possessions, and it doesn't have a time limit, it's just something that happens, a milestone in every career. Some exceptions avoid, others might suffer it to a lesser degree, but it's root cause affects all players to some level.

The absurdity of your argument is exposed by the opponent's perspective, you have basically declared someone's opponent infallible!

This is going to happen a lot, the expectation will be sky high and rightly so given how we played towards the end of 2023, who we were able to beat and the manner in which we did. Sayers, Cook and Voss and will have their plates full managing this expectation. Our list is chockablock full of talent, there are no more excuses, natural progression is to finish top 4 and have a serious tilt.
The pressure will rest largely on the players to deliver week in week out. Pressure makes diamonds, pressure can be your friend, pressure keeps people honest.
TO BE CRYSTAL CLEAR: If we dont win the flag in 2024, or finish top 4, we dont sack coaches anymore!

It's not about stats or possessions, and it doesn't have a time limit, it's just something that happens, a milestone in every career. Some exceptions avoid, others might suffer it to a lesser degree, but it's root cause affects all players to some level.

The absurdity of your argument is exposed by the opponent's perspective, you have basically declared someone's opponent infallible!

Did Patrick Cripps win the John Nicholls Medal in his second season?

I suspect the 'second year blues' are like everything else.
Some will experience them, perhaps for the reasons  LP suggests.
They get a bit more attention and scutiny.
Others don't experience them at all and have better second seasons than first.

I had a look at about half a dozen of the best players and almost to a man their second season was better than their first.
Maybe, the better the player the less the likely the phenomenon or perhaps the mentally strong can work through it.

You know what we're doing here, in this exercise of prediction/expectation... is just 'guessing'.
The reality is that none of us have any idea of how things will work out and what part a whole range of variables will play in our 2024 season.

For every reason we can think of for a successful year, there will be a reason why things could go pear shaped.
There was a time when I used to go into a season not even thinking it wouldn't be successful.
I wonder whether we might be a bit 'gun shy' these days after such a lean period.

We look for reasons why we can't have a good year, and adjust our expectations accordingly.
At the moment I just cant see how we aren't a big chance in 2024 other than bad luck with things like injuries.

Even before a new recruit has played a game, opposition analysts will have picked apart their strengths and weaknesses in preparation for briefing their players about how to nullify and exploit them.  At the same time, the recruit’s coaches will be preparing them to deal with opposition tactics.  It’s an ongoing arms race and new recruits aren’t given a 12 month truce before the opposition attempts to counter them.

Cincotta, Hollands, Cowan and Binns had good first seasons and coped with everything oppositions threw at them.  That experience, and their first full pre-season, should set them up for even better second seasons.  It’s that potential for improvement among our younger, developing players that will play a key part in determining our fortunes in 2024.

Experience matters, it matters for our players, and it matters for their opponents.

Just like a new or caretaker coach, a player's first AFL season is a honeymoon period.

Flaggers 2024

Did Patrick Cripps win the John Nicholls Medal in his second season?

Yes he did, and he probably should have won the Rising Star if I recall.

But my comments stand, it's not about stats it's about a player's experience and effectiveness.

Having finished dead last on the AFL ladder, I also recall a lot of debate on this very forum about the value of the different player ranking systems. In particular a lot of debate about why Cripps SC and AFL ranking was so low. It was because some ranking systems do not just award points for possessions, but they deduct points for clangers, poor DE, etc., etc.. As such sMurph was Carlton's highest ranked, Cripps was down in the 70s in several rankings.

Of course for Cripps the 2014 debut season was injury interrupted, just 3 games, so in 2015 he was basically in his 2nd season before everyone had been exposed to him in match ups. In effect that gave Cripps an extra pre-season before his 2nd round of genuine opposition. In 2017, his stats went up but he fell in the rankings.

Which just reinforces what I stated earlier, it's not about stats and the like, it's about experience and effectiveness.

This concept of 2nd year blues is about match ups, players and clubs having experience of opponents, and developing and training for tactics to counter them. It's not instantaneous, it takes time. We call it 2nd year blues because it takes one or two match ups to determine what works, but I suppose you could call it the 25 to 50 blues, and it's another reason why getting players to 100 games quickly is so important.

It's absurd to suggest a player has attracted the same level of scrutiny before they play a game or have an impact, it's not until a player touches up an opponent that the focus really begins.

Yes he did, and he probably should have won the Rising Star if I recall.

But my comments stand, it's not about stats it's about a player's experience and effectiveness.

Having finished dead last on the AFL ladder, I also recall a lot of debate on this very forum about the value of the different player ranking systems. In particular a lot of debate about why Cripps SC and AFL ranking was so low. It was because some ranking systems do not just award points for possessions, but they deduct points for clangers, poor DE, etc., etc.. As such sMurph was Carlton's highest ranked, Cripps was down in the 70s in several rankings.

Of course for Cripps the 2014 debut season was injury interrupted, just 3 games, so in 2015 he was basically in his 2nd season before everyone had been exposed to him in match ups. In effect that gave Cripps an extra pre-season before his 2nd round of genuine opposition. In 2017, his stats went up but he fell in the rankings.

Which just reinforces what I stated earlier, it's not about stats and the like, it's about experience and effectiveness.

This concept of 2nd year blues is about match ups, players and clubs having experience of opponents, and developing and training for tactics to counter them. It's not instantaneous, it takes time. We call it 2nd year blues because it takes one or two match ups to determine what works, but I suppose you could call it the 25 to 50 blues, and it's another reason why getting players to 100 games quickly is so important.

It's absurd to suggest a player has attracted the same level of scrutiny before they play a game or have an impact, it's not until a player touches up an opponent that the focus really begins.

Clutching at straws LP.  Second year blues is a fan's construct, as is the alternative 25 to 50 games blues. Neither happens in the real world.

Clubs compile dossiers on potential draft and rookie picks.  Those dossiers are passed on to the opposition analysts when players are drafted by other clubs. No AFL player is given a season, or 25 games, without the opposition having tactics in place to curb their influence.  Furthermore, players aren't left to their own devices when coming to terms with their AFL careers.  They are given every support possible, on and off the field.

Consider Jaxon Binns.  He's yet to make his AFL debut but has excelled at VFL level.  Opposition clubs put a lot of work into him last season because he was a standout player.  He will have had the benefits of a year playing in the VFL and training with the AFL team, as well as his first full pre-season, when he does make his debut, but his opponents will know as much about him as any other player in our team.   

When will Jaxon be struck down by the second year blues; 2024, 2025 or after he has played 25 or 50 games? 

It is a nonsense  ::)

Clutching at straws LP.  Second year blues is a fan's construct, as is the alternative 25 to 50 games blues. Neither happens in the real world.

Clubs compile dossiers on potential draft and rookie picks.  Those dossiers are passed on to the opposition analysts when players are drafted by other clubs. No AFL player is given a season, or 25 games, without the opposition having tactics in place to curb their influence.  Furthermore, players aren't left to their own devices when coming to terms with their AFL careers.  They are given every support possible, on and off the field.

Consider Jaxon Binns.  He's yet to make his AFL debut but has excelled at VFL level.  Opposition clubs put a lot of work into him last season because he was a standout player.  He will have had the benefits of a year playing in the VFL and training with the AFL team, as well as his first full pre-season, when he does make his debut, but his opponents will know as much about him as any other player in our team.   

When will Jaxon be struck down by the second year blues; 2024, 2025 or after he has played 25 or 50 games? 

It is a nonsense  ::)

im not so sure DJC.

I've noticed a trend.  A good first year can sometimes end up in a slight drop in the second season, and vice versa occurs more frequently where players who don't don't have a big first season sometimes have a bigger second year and then suffer from a regression in the 3rd year.

It doesn't happen to all of them, but Corey durdin certainly indicates that. 

Cripps is a unique case.  He broke his leg in his debut season from memory and then came back in year 2 amd went beast mode.  Like walshy. 

As a first year player you are generally told just to go out and have fun. You get exposed to the footballing landscape at the highest level. You are pumped full of confidence and everything is new and exciting. You are fully fit, full of confidence.

As a second year player, you are pigeon holed a bit more. You are critiqued a bit more. Your confidence takes a hit. You may be playing with niggles that you wouldn't have been picked to play with the year before.

Now clearly this is a generalisation and there is no definite rule that makes it so.

But there are legitimate reasons that make the second year blues more likely than unlikely.

There's probably a fair bit of generalisation going on here. ;)

Some players will have better seasons in their second years.
Some players will have 'not so good' seasons.

We all have views on this...
I personally don't think it would be close to a majority experiencing those second year 'downers'

I reckon if you took the top 20 players in this year's Brownlow and did both a statistical analysis and one based on observation at the time, the majority would have had better second years.
But that's also just a guess.
It has to be both statistics and reporting/ observation because statistics only ever tell you half a story and a forward who becomes a defender, or a midfielder who plays more forward, may actually drop in raw figures.
So assigned roles become a factor.

And of course all that assumes injury is not also a factor, because that can impact.
In fact injury for young players it is probably more of a reason for a drop off in form, given these guys are experiencing a pressure they haven't been exposed to in their junior football

Speculating on how a player like Hollands will go Year 2 is again just a guess (lot of guessing going on here)
His brother had a poorer second year than first.
But he's not his brother.
And individuals will perform differently, so there's no blanket rule.

The bottom line in all this is... if around half our side have better 2024s than 2023, and half of the rest stay the same we'll be a better side even if there is a drop in  form for some.
If a dozen of our players drop off, we could be in strife. :(

Expectation: Deep into 2024 finals series. Strong improvement from all younger players (-28yrs) and maintaining of high level from senior players.

Predictions: Nil... lost my crystal ball and Tarot cards.

Just came third so top two should be the expectation and guarantee home finals.

There's probably a fair bit of generalisation going on here. ;)

Some players will have better seasons in their second years.
Some players will have 'not so good' seasons.

We all have views on this...
I personally don't think it would be close to a majority experiencing those second year 'downers'

I reckon if you took the top 20 players in this year's Brownlow and did both a statistical analysis and one based on observation at the time, the majority would have had better second years.
But that's also just a guess.
It has to be both statistics and reporting/ observation because statistics only ever tell you half a story and a forward who becomes a defender, or a midfielder who plays more forward, may actually drop in raw figures.
So assigned roles become a factor.

And of course all that assumes injury is not also a factor, because that can impact.
In fact injury for young players it is probably more of a reason for a drop off in form, given these guys are experiencing a pressure they haven't been exposed to in their junior football

Speculating on how a player like Hollands will go Year 2 is again just a guess (lot of guessing going on here)
His brother had a poorer second year than first.
But he's not his brother.
And individuals will perform differently, so there's no blanket rule.

The bottom line in all this is... if around half our side have better 2024s than 2023, and half of the rest stay the same we'll be a better side even if there is a drop in  form for some.
If a dozen of our players drop off, we could be in strife. :(

There are many reasons why some footballers' form may fluctuate both during a season and from season to season; injury, fitness, confidence, self-doubt, homesickness, a new role, changes to the gameplan, personal problems, different teammates, a new coach, too much weight, not enough weight, improved skills/technique, better opponents, more experience, etc, etc.  The number of games or seasons played is a factor in that players develop their skills and confidence and their teammates get to know how they play and what they are capable of.  For example, Owies knows to get out the back when Charlie has the ball outside 50 and is wheeling on to his right boot.  The number of seasons or games played isn't a factor in isolation.

Imagine Goodwin's post-match analysis:
G  "How did Hollands get free for Weitering's kick across the ground?"
A  "He's a first year player who has only played 18 games so we didn't put any work into him."
G  "Fair enough, but we'll have step up the pressure on him next season!"

Alex Cincotta had a great debut season.  As a mature age recruit, his approach to the game is probably very different to that of Lachie Cowan.  Apart from maturity, and a more successful season, Cincotta doesn't have to deal with an interstate family and a new environment.  Cincotta's footy career has had its ups and downs and it's evident that he is a very resilient and determined young man.

All things being equal, one would expect Cincotta to continue his career on the same note in 2024 while Cowan is likely to continue his career in the VFL.  However, with Zach Williams returning from injury, there's a good chance that Cincotta will be running around with Cowan in the VFL.  If so, is that second year blues or simply being forced from the team by a bloke whose attributes are more highly valued by the coach?

We are competitive with responsive coaching calls so avoiding multi-goal runs against.
We maintain overall form and include depth players as needed for team first changes.
We see the injury curse only in the rear view mirror and nightmares.
We see natural development of all younger players and strong leadership from our seniors.
We remain united, doggedly determined, and never give up. Upholding the culture and brand that emerged this year. Showcasing a club that supporters, sponsers, and players, and superstars want to join.

The results will take care of themselves.

Go Blues

We are competitive with responsive coaching calls so avoiding multi-goal runs against.
We maintain overall form and include depth players as needed for team first changes.
We see the injury curse only in the rear view mirror and nightmares.
We see natural development of all younger players and strong leadership from our seniors.
We remain united, doggedly determined, and never give up. Upholding the culture and brand that emerged this year. Showcasing a club that supporters, sponsers, and players, and superstars want to join.

The results will take care of themselves.

Go Blues

My family renewed 2 weeks ago, we are all in.
Go Blues

Carlton will win a Prelim in 2024.

There are many reasons why some footballers' form may fluctuate both during a season and from season to season; injury, fitness, confidence, self-doubt, homesickness, a new role, changes to the gameplan, personal problems, different teammates, a new coach, too much weight, not enough weight, improved skills/technique, better opponents, more experience, etc, etc.  The number of games or seasons played is a factor in that players develop their skills and confidence and their teammates get to know how they play and what they are capable of.  For example, Owies knows to get out the back when Charlie has the ball outside 50 and is wheeling on to his right boot.  The number of seasons or games played isn't a factor in isolation.

Imagine Goodwin's post-match analysis:
G  "How did Hollands get free for Weitering's kick across the ground?"
A  "He's a first year player who has only played 18 games so we didn't put any work into him."
G  "Fair enough, but we'll have step up the pressure on him next season!"

Alex Cincotta had a great debut season.  As a mature age recruit, his approach to the game is probably very different to that of Lachie Cowan.  Apart from maturity, and a more successful season, Cincotta doesn't have to deal with an interstate family and a new environment.  Cincotta's footy career has had its ups and downs and it's evident that he is a very resilient and determined young man.

All things being equal, one would expect Cincotta to continue his career on the same note in 2024 while Cowan is likely to continue his career in the VFL.  However, with Zach Williams returning from injury, there's a good chance that Cincotta will be running around with Cowan in the VFL.  If so, is that second year blues or simply being forced from the team by a bloke whose attributes are more highly valued by the coach?

Cincotta could stay in the team, even with Williams back in and no injuries there. If he were to make way, who plays in the pocket while others run off more on the flanks? Perhaps Newman, but he had a career-best year there.
Yeah, maybe an improved Kemp, even Marchbank or Gov on a small. But they're better as aerial interceptors. Cowan as an option with a good pre-season and escaping the second-year "blues". Time will tell.

Cincotta could stay in the team, even with Williams back in and no injuries there. If he were to make way, who plays in the pocket while others run off more on the flanks? Perhaps Newman, but he had a career-best year there.
Yeah, maybe an improved Kemp, even Marchbank or Gov on a small. But they're better as aerial interceptors. Cowan as an option with a good pre-season and escaping the second-year "blues". Time will tell.

Boyd?

Boyd?

Perhaps.

There are many reasons why some footballers' form may fluctuate both during a season and from season to season; injury, fitness, confidence, self-doubt, homesickness, a new role, changes to the gameplan, personal problems, different teammates, a new coach, too much weight, not enough weight, improved skills/technique, better opponents, more experience, etc, etc.  The number of games or seasons played is a factor in that players develop their skills and confidence and their teammates get to know how they play and what they are capable of.  For example, Owies knows to get out the back when Charlie has the ball outside 50 and is wheeling on to his right boot.  The number of seasons or games played isn't a factor in isolation.

Imagine Goodwin's post-match analysis:
G  "How did Hollands get free for Weitering's kick across the ground?"
A  "He's a first year player who has only played 18 games so we didn't put any work into him."
G  "Fair enough, but we'll have step up the pressure on him next season!"

Alex Cincotta had a great debut season.  As a mature age recruit, his approach to the game is probably very different to that of Lachie Cowan.  Apart from maturity, and a more successful season, Cincotta doesn't have to deal with an interstate family and a new environment.  Cincotta's footy career has had its ups and downs and it's evident that he is a very resilient and determined young man.

All things being equal, one would expect Cincotta to continue his career on the same note in 2024 while Cowan is likely to continue his career in the VFL.  However, with Zach Williams returning from injury, there's a good chance that Cincotta will be running around with Cowan in the VFL.  If so, is that second year blues or simply being forced from the team by a bloke whose attributes are more highly valued by the coach?

Im hoping Cincotta isnt relegated to the VFL and Williams has to earn his spot in the seniors. I just dont see the latter as an automatic and he needs to prove he can stay on the park and be better than Cincotta.
We saw Markov replace Noble in the Collingwood finals teams after most would see Noble as the automatic pick ahead of the supp player but Markov's superior form and ability to play on a greater range of players was rewarded by the coach and McRae made the right choice.

Im hoping Cincotta isnt relegated to the VFL and Williams has to earn his spot in the seniors. I just dont see the latter as an automatic and he needs to prove he can stay on the park and be better than Cincotta.
We saw Markov replace Noble in the Collingwood finals teams after most would see Noble as the automatic pick ahead of the supp player but Markov's superior form and ability to play on a greater range of players was rewarded by the coach and McRae made the right choice.

That should be a given EB.

However, it's pretty clear that Vossy wants quicker/better ball movement out of defence, hence Boyd's recall.

I'd like to see Cincotta stay in the 22 ... but I'd be going with 25 or 26 players and I don't think the AFL would condone that.

The conventional wisdom is that you need 28-30 AFL ready players on a list to be a contender. That means that in any premiership team, there will be worthy, deserving players who miss out. I wish it weren't the case, but I can't see any way around it under the current system. Those AFL ready players who are on the margins won't hang around for ever. They will look for more senior opportunity elsewhere. In a very real way you do need to strike while the iron is hot.

The conventional wisdom is that you need 28-30 AFL ready players on a list to be a contender. That means that in any premiership team, there will be worthy, deserving players who miss out. I wish it weren't the case, but I can't see any way around it under the current system. Those AFL ready players who are on the margins won't hang around for ever. They will look for more senior opportunity elsewhere. In a very real way you do need to strike while the iron is hot.

Yes, having decent depth is a key factor in a premiership tilt.

The lure of a premiership and the companionship of good teammates can overwhelm the desire for more opportunity.  I think that's why Paddy Dow was reluctant to move on.

change game plan and more quick ball movement from defense. WE can not go with this year game style.

change game plan and more quick ball movement from defense. WE can not go with this year game style.

We won 11 out of the last 13 games and it wasn't our game plan that cost us against Brisbane in the prelim.  Every team tweaks their game plan over the off season and we'll do the same.  There won't be any major changes and neither should there be.

I haven't read every post in every thread. I'm wondering if I've missed some happy news related to the Crippa family? Or perhaps I'm mistaken and/or there's nothing official???

I haven't read every post in every thread. I'm wondering if I've missed some happy news related to the Crippa family? Or perhaps I'm mistaken and/or there's nothing official???

There's nothing as yet on the CFC website or the CFC Twitter account. There's a photo from Brownlow night a few weeks ago, and Monique doesn't look pregnant there.

I did notice that Mitch McGovern recently got married.

Matt Kennedy also got married.
There was a picture of a couple of our boys and a St Kilda player and Essendon player in attendance on Facebook. ;)  ;D

Matt Kennedy also got married.
There was a picture of a couple of our boys and a St Kilda player and Essendon player in attendance on Facebook. ;)  ;D

The same Saints and Bummers players were at Grace’s wedding!

Guv got married the day after Grace’s wedding. I don’t know if any players doubled up 🙂

There's nothing as yet on the CFC website or the CFC Twitter account. There's a photo from Brownlow night a few weeks ago, and Monique doesn't look pregnant there.

I did notice that Mitch McGovern recently got married.

Thanks for that.
Me 🤐

any team that has quick ball movement especially from defensive half ,over the years we have struggled ,so i hope in 24 we can prevent this from happening 

any team that has quick ball movement especially from defensive half ,over the years we have struggled ,so i hope in 24 we can prevent this from happening 

I think we have addressed that in the last couple of years.

Goals per game conceded:

2021: 13.1 (equal 2nd worst)
2022: 11.3 (7th best)
2023: 10.5 (4th best)

any team that has quick ball movement especially from defensive half ,over the years we have struggled ,so i hope in 24 we can prevent this from happening

Trust in H and Charlie, each and every week they stay on the park and play together things will get better.

Same applies to our smalls.

We don't want too many changes now, we don't want to be the chef who goes one step too far and bins all that was created!

Yep.  I've been saying that we need stability for years.  Things got hard this season.  We didn't blink and slowed forward.  The rewards are obvious.

I haven't read every post in every thread. I'm wondering if I've missed some happy news related to the Crippa family? Or perhaps I'm mistaken and/or there's nothing official???

Revisiting this again. Apologies in advance if this isn't the best thread.
I don't think there's any hiding it any longer. All going well, I expect our captain is expecting a new addition to the family.

With the obvious well wishes put aside until it'sofficial, I do wonder if this may influence captaincy.

Gerard Whately on SEN:

“As footy ramps up, Carlton is emphasising the quality long missing at the club that served them so well last year - stability. It was stability that allowed the Blues to ride out the midseason horrors of 2023 & empower Michael Voss to conjure the Preliminary Final run.
The historic bloodlust to sack a coach was quelled by the President & the Chief Executive. Luke Sayers is asking the members to approve an extension of his time at the helm & he would seem determined to make Brian Cook commit beyond the end of the year as well.
The contract extension for Michael Voss only seems to need the fine print sorted & that's entirely appropriate - Voss has earned the additional two years & shouldn't be on the short leash entering the 2024 season. Let him get on with the job fully supported & endorsed.
Stability, it's the new religion at Carlton. It's the new Blue, & it suits them well.”

I don't think we're his favourite club but that's a fair assessment ... and how good is it not to be chopping and changing coaches and the administration?

Gerard Whately on SEN:

“As footy ramps up, Carlton is emphasising the quality long missing at the club that served them so well last year - stability. It was stability that allowed the Blues to ride out the midseason horrors of 2023 & empower Michael Voss to conjure the Preliminary Final run.
The historic bloodlust to sack a coach was quelled by the President & the Chief Executive. Luke Sayers is asking the members to approve an extension of his time at the helm & he would seem determined to make Brian Cook commit beyond the end of the year as well.
The contract extension for Michael Voss only seems to need the fine print sorted & that's entirely appropriate - Voss has earned the additional two years & shouldn't be on the short leash entering the 2024 season. Let him get on with the job fully supported & endorsed.
Stability, it's the new religion at Carlton. It's the new Blue, & it suits them well.”

I don't think we're his favourite club but that's a fair assessment ... and how good is it not to be chopping and changing coaches and the administration?

Ive always found Whately hard but fair. I listen to a truckload of SEN content and last year we were the darlings of the AFL, Whately and The Pipe in particular had permanent chubs over us. I suspect that will all change if we really get up and firing and make the top 4😂

just hope that people at the club think of the whole 2023 year NOT just the two finals win , if we think that "how good we are won finals blah blah blah " we wont take the next step . words of TB12 now we have to work even harder to maintain the level .FINGERS CROSSED

just hope that people at the club think of the whole 2023 year NOT just the two finals win , if we think that "how good we are won finals blah blah blah " we wont take the next step . words of TB12 now we have to work even harder to maintain the level .FINGERS CROSSED

Well if David King's observations of our training sessions is any indication, they have definitely stepped it up and have worked harder. Enjoy:
David King has spent the summer at AFL club training sessions, trying to get a gauge for how teams are progressing across the league.

Of all the sides he observed, the premiership Kangaroo says the most brutal session he saw was at Princes Park, lauding how the Blues have evolved over the last 12 months.

“This time last year, I wouldn’t have had Carlton anywhere near a top four position because of – not just the way they trained – they just didn’t look ready to be that team – they didn’t look rock hard fit, really mature, demanding of each other and the standards at training, whilst they were good, they weren’t top four good,” King told SEN Breakfast.

“The session I went to was a three-hour session, it was a brutal session and they trained like I spoke about Melbourne last year – full on contested, some old school stuff where the coach throws the ball back 1v1, get it back to the coach, go again, go again, go again.

“I haven’t seen that for 15 years and I thought it’s simple stuff, but it’s all about winning your own contest.

“That Carlton session was the toughest I’ve seen for a long time, not just at Carlton, but for a long time.”

King believes the Blues are seeking “icing on the cake” to take them from a top eight side into the premiership window.

He named Matt Cottrell, Elijah Hollands and Orazio Fantasia as some players who could provide some internal improvement.

“Matt Cottrell is going to be a very good AFL player. I thought he was going to be one of those guys that hover between your 21st picked player and your 30th picked player. He’s going to be a very good player,” King said.

“There’s a tall down there named Harry Lemmey who they took late in the draft a few seasons ago, didn’t know much about him, he had an outstanding session.

“Elijah Hollands, I’m telling you, he’ll have a really big impact on their ball-use and their poise with the footy, I know he’s going to miss the first two rounds, but he’ll make a big difference to Carlton.

“This time last year we were talking about Sam Walsh missing six weeks of footy, that’s not the case now.

“I don’t know if Orazio Fantasia plays or not … but if he plays 12 games, that’s what we’re talking about, they’re looking for the icing on the cake, Carlton.”

“This time last year, I wouldn’t have had Carlton anywhere near a top four position because of – not just the way they trained – they just didn’t look ready to be that team – they didn’t look rock hard fit, really mature, demanding of each other and the standards at training, whilst they were good, they weren’t top four good,” King told SEN Breakfast.

Where did we finish after finals? Top 4.

So David King is highlighting how little his opinion actually matters.

Where did we finish after finals? Top 4.

So David King is highlighting how little his opinion actually matters.

He was bang on for half a year.  We didn't look likely until I left for Europe in June.

He was bang on for half a year.  We didn't look likely until I left for Europe in June.

Thry if you (or anyone) had have told me we were going to go on a 9 game streak (or whatever it was) and make a Prelim I would have told you that you had rocks in your head.

He was bang on for half a year.  We didn't look likely until I left for Europe in June.

My thoughts too Thry.  King’s pre-season assessment was damn close to the mark for the first half of the season.

This pre-season’s training is closer to our second half of the season.

My thoughts too Thry.  King’s pre-season assessment was damn close to the mark for the first half of the season.

This pre-season’s training is closer to our second half of the season.

He was simply talking about intensity and brutality (old school contested) not seen in a very long time. I think he was referring to preseason training translating into the season. I like the sound of that.

Where did we finish after finals? Top 4.

So David King is highlighting how little his opinion actually matters.

I think he’s saying we were ordinary this time last year but then lifted our intensity and game during the season… I’m not sure why you don’t agree ?

I'm glad I don't have to pick a side for round 1. Barring a couple of serious injuries (SOS and Weiters), everyone appears to be  "flying" in the pre-season training. There are going to be so many spots/positions being competed for by multiple players. Several  positions have players who make it their own:
C: Cripps
FF: Charlie
CHF: H
Ruck: TDK Cerra Walsh
Wing: Acres owns one wing
HFF: Martin (one HFF is his)
FP: Motlop (one fwd pocket is his)
HBF or CHB: Gov as the intercepting defender
BP: Saady owns one back pocket

The remaining positions have multiple plays fighting for the spots. Starting from the back:

FB: Young or S Durdin
BP: Newman, Cincotta or Cowin
HBF: Williams or Boyd
CHB: Marchy or Kemp
The other wing: Ollie, Cotts or Doc
The other HFF: Cunners or Fog
The other FP: Durds or Razzle Dazzle

The bench becomes a nightmare, I Assume Pitto takes up one spot. That leaves three and the sub for all the mulitples mentioned above plus blokes like Jack Carroll, Binnsy, the newbys.

I have a headache.

IMO, we should try and do what we should've done last time against them and pick a smaller quicker side.
IMO, the smalls ran rings around us.

That is, 1 ruck.

FB - Newman {Option a} Saad
HB - Kemp McGovern Cincotta
C  - Docherty Cripps Acres
HF - Martin Curnow Cuningham
FF - Motlop McKay Fantasia
R - De Koning Cerra Walsh
INT - Hewitt Cottrell O.Hollands Williams
Sub - {option b}

{option a} is either Marchbank or Young
Marchbank played well against them last time, but we did have Weitering around to play on Daniher which we won't this time.
We also don't have a backup ruck to help out TDK, so Young might get a gig based on that.....simply because of the opposition.

{option b} is either C. Durdin or E. Hollands
My preference if for Durdin, but that is largely down to me not knowing where E. Hollands is at in terms of form, fitness and positioning.

We need to go back to what was our strength when we went on our string of wins.....and that was our run and pressure. We went too tall and slow against Lions and it cost us. So lets fix that.

I'm glad I don't have to pick a side for round 1. Barring a couple of serious injuries (SOS and Weiters), everyone appears to be  "flying" in the pre-season training. There are going to be so many spots/positions being competed for by multiple players. Several  positions have players who make it their own:
C: Cripps
FF: Charlie
CHF: H
Ruck: TDK Cerra Walsh
Wing: Acres owns one wing
HFF: Martin (one HFF is his)
FP: Motlop (one fwd pocket is his)
HBF or CHB: Gov as the intercepting defender
BP: Saady owns one back pocket

The remaining positions have multiple plays fighting for the spots. Starting from the back:

FB: Young or S Durdin
BP: Newman, Cincotta or Cowin
HBF: Williams or Boyd
CHB: Marchy or Kemp
The other wing: Ollie, Cotts or Doc
The other HFF: Cunners or Fog
The other FP: Durds or Razzle Dazzle

The bench becomes a nightmare, I Assume Pitto takes up one spot. That leaves three and the sub for all the mulitples mentioned above plus blokes like Jack Carroll, Binnsy, the newbys.

I have a headache.

And it's going to get even harder when Weiters is back, Hollands, E is available and the newbies start pressing for a spot!

It's virtually set in stone that we'll go with two rucks and De Koning will rest forward as a third tall or giving Harry or Charlie a breather.  It's also clear that Docherty will play forward and in the midfield and Cottrell will play mainly as a forward ... and I expect that he'll be picked before Cuningham and Fogarty. 

I think that Newman has cemented a place in defence and, in Weitering's absence, Young has to play (unless he has a shocker of a pre-season).  That gives us Saad, Young, Newman and McGovern pencilled in and Kemp, Williams, Marchbank, Cincotta, Durdin, S, Cowan, and Boyd fighting for the remaining three spots.  Apparently young Binnsy is earmarked to play in defence this season so that's another one to add to the mix.

And it's going to get even harder when Weiters is back, Hollands, E is available and the newbies start pressing for a spot!

It's virtually set in stone that we'll go with two rucks and De Koning will rest forward as a third tall or giving Harry or Charlie a breather.  It's also clear that Docherty will play forward and in the midfield and Cottrell will play mainly as a forward ... and I expect that he'll be picked before Cuningham and Fogarty. 

I think that Newman has cemented a place in defence and, in Weitering's absence, Young has to play (unless he has a shocker of a pre-season).  That gives us Saad, Young, Newman and McGovern pencilled in and Kemp, Williams, Marchbank, Cincotta, Durdin, S, Cowan, and Boyd fighting for the remaining three spots.  Apparently young Binnsy is earmarked to play in defence this season so that's another one to add to the mix.

Another way to look at it is to have a a look at the 2023 PF side which did very well and ask how does it get improved or tweaked
2023 PF team
FB Boyd Weitering Saad      
HB Newman Marchbank McGovern
C Docherty Cripps Acres
R Pittonet Cerra Walsh
HF Martin McKay Cottrell
FF De Koning Curnow Motlop
INT Hollands O Hewitt Fogarty Cincotta Kennedy(s)

*From memory they started with Pitt and TDK on the ground at the opening bounce. Whether they go with that is the norm remains to be seen.

2024 Rnd 1 (bold = position "owned" in my view ad for the sake of this discussion.
FB Boyd/Williams Weitering Young Saad
HB Newman Marchbank/Kemp/Durdin S McGovern
C Docherty/Hollands O Cripps Acres
R De Koning Cerra Walsh
HF Martin McKay Cottrell/Cunninghan
FF Durdin C/Fantasia Curnow Motlop
INT Pittonet Hewitt Fogarty Cincotta/Cowin Kennedy

As you mention, Weiters will walk in, haven't factored E Hollands.
Its easy when you have injuries (which in the past has been our standard fare, but if they all come off strong PS's, it will be a mighty task indeed for the MC.

One thing about David King’s assessment is that he’s neutral and doesn’t have our supporters’ biases or favourite players.  Four players he mentioned are:

Cottrell has gone from a fringe player to best 22.

Elijah Hollands will play midfield and will have an impact.

Lemmey is impressive (but who does he displace?).

Fantasia is a depth player who might manage a dozen games later in the season.

It seems that Crippa is mentoring Lij and that should help to move his footy up a notch.

There will be a lot of very capable footballers missing out in opening round, a lot of us scratching our head and, most importantly, a lot of pressure on the blokes in the 23 to perform.

One thing about David King’s assessment is that he’s neutral and doesn’t have our supporters’ biases or favourite players.  Four players he mentioned are:

Cottrell has gone from a fringe player to best 22.

Elijah Hollands will play midfield and will have an impact.

Lemmey is impressive (but who does he displace?).

Fantasia is a depth player who might manage a dozen games later in the season.

It seems that Crippa is mentoring Lij and that should help to move his footy up a notch.

There will be a lot of very capable footballers missing out in opening round, a lot of us scratching our head and, most importantly, a lot of pressure on the blokes in the 23 to perform.

Its a good problem to have.

....And no matter what we think, the folks doing the selections have much more idea about positioning, matchups, and current development and readiness than any of us. ;)  :D

....And no matter what we think, the folks doing the selections have much more idea about positioning, matchups, and current development and readiness than any of us. ;)  :D

I’m not so sure about that 🤣

I’m not so sure about that 🤣

I think we like to think so. :P

I think we like to think so. :P

Come on Lods - everyone knows that the board, list manager, coach and match committee never make a call without checking here first  ::)

I think we like to think so. :P

History suggests we have probably been more right than the club would want to admit over the past 20-odd years.

History suggests we have probably been more right than the club would want to admit over the past 20-odd years.

I think history probably suggests we don't look back at some of the things we wrote. :P  :D

What were the predictions from last year (first past the post etc)?

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/teams/carlton-blues/afl-2024-carlton-blues-season-preview-preseason-analysis-predicted-round-1-team-ladder-position-strength-weakness-latest-news/news-story/969b9c1820a621441e971e776e5b957b

A very fair & balanced article about where we are right now.

It points to the huge opportunity in front of us this season whilst acknowledging there are still a handful of things that need to happen amongst the players.

The Fox Sports summary almost completely ignored the return of Martin to the squad and the effect that had on our F50 structure, the return of Williams will potentially be equally as big.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/teams/carlton-blues/afl-2024-carlton-blues-season-preview-preseason-analysis-predicted-round-1-team-ladder-position-strength-weakness-latest-news/news-story/969b9c1820a621441e971e776e5b957b

A very fair & balanced article about where we are right now.

It points to the huge opportunity in front of us this season whilst acknowledging there are still a handful of things that need to happen amongst the players.

Not much to argue about in that, the time is definitely now. Injury, as always, will play a big part as will attitude (selfless team first). If everyone plays their role or as the great man Bellichick says "do your job", the result will come.

I know for a fact based on the sample size I was exposed to, the Filth supporters were crapping their pants at qtr time of our prelim (ie at the thought of having to play us in The Big Dance). If we bring all year what we brought in the second half of last year, anything is possible.

Fox Round One Team

B: Nic Newman, Jacob Weitering*, Brodie Kemp

HB: Zac Williams, Mitch McGovern, Adam Saad

C: Blake Acres, Patrick Cripps, Sam Docherty

HF: Jack Martin, Charlie Curnow, Lachie Fogarty

F: Matt Owies, Harry McKay, Jesse Motlop

FOLL: Tom De Koning, Adam Cerra, Sam Walsh

I/C: George Hewett, Matt Kennedy, Caleb Marchbank, Matt Cottrell, Ollie Hollands (sub)

Who relieves De Koning in the ruck???

Who relieves De Koning in the ruck???

Excluding injury causing selection havoc, Pitto will be playing and there is no chance we will have four smalls in F50.

I would think Boyd will play as well as Pittonett and while Weitering, Silvagni and Hollands the older won't be available to play, this means someone additionally will miss selection but I am unsure as to who that will be. I also think Cuningham and Cincotta will also be unlucky to miss out.

Fox Round One Team

B: Nic Newman, Jacob Weitering*, Brodie Kemp

HB: Zac Williams, Mitch McGovern, Adam Saad

C: Blake Acres, Patrick Cripps, Sam Docherty

HF: Jack Martin, Charlie Curnow, Lachie Fogarty

F: Matt Owies, Harry McKay, Jesse Motlop

FOLL: Tom De Koning, Adam Cerra, Sam Walsh

I/C: George Hewett, Matt Kennedy, Caleb Marchbank, Matt Cottrell, Ollie Hollands (sub)

Who relieves De Koning in the ruck???

SEN reporting Weiters won't play the first two rounds

Lets goooo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wAZgag5XbDQ&ab_channel=FoxFooty

Interesting article by Jon Pierik in today's Age:

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/bringing-the-heat-the-next-step-in-the-blues-quest-for-greatness-20240221-p5f6ph.html

Can we dominate the home and away season?

Apart from home finals and double chances, a dominant home and away season provides an opportunity to manage critical players.

My prediction.... Start poorly, come good too late, miss finals.  Harry to kick poorly again.  Another frustrating, unfulfilling season.  Too much hype not enough substance.

The start of the season will be a great test of our depth, as much as we would like wins what I think will be more important is how we go about games win or lose. To me that is going to be the tell.

The question being, "Did the players mean what they said midway through last season?"

Win or lose, will they have each others back, will they work for each other and sacrifice for each other?

The start of the season will be a great test of our depth, as much as we would like wins what I think will be more important is how we go about games win or lose. To me that is going to be the tell.

The question being, "Did the players mean what they said midway through last season?"

Win or lose, will they have each others back, will they work for each other and sacrifice for each other?

I tend to agree.
I’m fearful that a poor start will see the feral “fans” start baying for coaching blood again

Weitering is our most important player and there is no backup or protege being developed to support him.  The failure to attend to this will become all too apparent in the early rounds.

Weitering is our most important player and there is no backup or protege being developed to support him.  The failure to attend to this will become all too apparent in the early rounds.

Young is his protege and Nige is his backup.

Of course they’re not up to Weitering’s class but, if they were, they’d be demanding his spot or a trade for better opportunities.

I'm more worried about winning the midfield battle. Their mids got the better of us in both games last year and if they do again we won't win.

I'm more worried about winning the midfield battle. Their mids got the better of us in both games last year and if they do again we won't win.

Yes, the midfield contest will be critical, along with making the most of our forward 50 entries and applying defensive pressure from go to whoa.

Weitering is our most important player and there is no backup or protege being developed to support him.  The failure to attend to this will become all too apparent in the early rounds.

As if Weiters losing wasn't bad enough, we lose Walsh (IMO our best mid) and mis-small forwards as well, the first two to four rounds will hard to watch. We cannot cover the losses we have ATM and first up, we are up against a side who is powerful on every line.

Young is his protege and Nige is his backup.

Of course they’re not up to Weitering’s class but, if they were, they’d be demanding his spot or a trade for better opportunities.

Not up to Weitering's class? Young isn't even AFL standard at the moment.

As if Weiters losing wasn't bad enough, we lose Walsh (IMO our best mid) and mis-small forwards as well, the first two to four rounds will hard to watch. We cannot cover the losses we have ATM and first up, we are up against a side who is powerful on every line.

Agree. We will struggle imo, but hopefully our steely resolve will be on show.

We are a sneaky chance if we play relentless tough contested pressure footy.

We are a sneaky chance if we play relentless tough contested pressure footy.

Absolutely!

No team is invincible, and particularly if the opposition has a plan and is ruthless in its execution.

Missing Weiters, Walsh, Martin, Silvagni and Motlop hurts, but premiership teams are able to cover injured players, no matter how important they are.  Think of Richmond losing Rance.

Vossy and his assistants would have spent a fair amount of the off season replaying our prelim loss and figuring out how to reverse the result.  If they’ve got that right, and the players can execute the plan, we’re a good chance to knock the cocky blighters off their perch.

Absolutely!

No team is invincible, and particularly if the opposition has a plan and is ruthless in its execution.

Missing Weiters, Walsh, Martin, Silvagni and Motlop hurts, but premiership teams are able to cover injured players, no matter how important they are.  Think of Richmond losing Rance.

Vossy and his assistants would have spent a fair amount of the off season replaying our prelim loss and figuring out how to reverse the result.  If they’ve got that right, and the players can execute the plan, we’re a good chance to knock the cocky blighters off their perch.

Exactly - lets see Cripps, Cerra, Hewett, Kennedy, Acres and Docherty at their brutal relentless best.