Re: Russian Ukraine War
Reply #48 –
Firstly, I agree, it's clearly about 400km off course to be part of the expected military operations.
But secondly, you can't be sure who fired it and why, it's just not that simple and there really are far more than two options.
The problem is someone somewhere always profits heavily from war, politically or financially, so you can never assume it was one of the registered combatants.
For example, there would be arms dealers sweating on Ukraine being accepted into NATO, they would get a whole new nation as a customer overnight, a customer they currently cannot deal with above board!
There would be NATO members who do not want Ukraine in NATO, so that funding to existing members is not diminished.
Another extreme example, China or North Korea both benefit greatly from any escalation that keeps NATO and the US tied up in the Russia / Ukraine conflict. It's a version of distracting the police while you get on with a dirty deed! You can gain an advantage more than one way, not just by making yourself stronger, but also by weakening an opponent.