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11
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 11 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Gold Coast
Last post by ElwoodBlues1 -
Quote from: Gointocarlton on
Just a couple of points:
Durdin has been way more ineffective than Fantasia. If Motlop was fit I'd guess neither would play.
With Moo back this week, I'd chuck Cincotta in the guts and add him to the midfield rotation. Played midfield in his VFL days, has size, speed, grunt and is a good driving (ie low) kick.
Durdin had one more effective possession than all of us on the forum last game so the bar is low.....Orazio is a 100 game plus player who should be doing a lot better in a team with two dominant big forwards imo. He probably should have started in the twos when the season began and worked into some form but injuries to other players forced his inclusion so he ended up in the deep end and has spent most of the season drowning unfortunately.
I think the ideal small forwards can take a turn in the midfield and a lot of the better ones do and I wonder if Orazio given some real minutes in the middle it might be a catalyst to get him going...
12
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: AFL Rd 11 2024 Pre Game Prognostications Carlton vs Gold Coast
Last post by Gointocarlton -
Quote from: crashlander on
Our line-up:

B:  [42] Adam Saad,  [23] Jacob Weitering,  [2] Lachlan Cowan
HB:  [17] Brodie Kemp,  [11] Mitch McGovern,  [24] Nic Newman
C:  [4] Oliver Hollands,  [9] Patrick Cripps,  [13] Blake Acres
HF:  [6] Zac Williams,  [10] Harry McKay,  [20] Elijah Hollands
F:  [14] Orazio Fantasia,  [30] Charlie Curnow,  [44] Matthew Owies
R:  [12] Tom De Koning,  [18] Sam Walsh,  [7] Matthew Kennedy
Int:  [37] Jordan Boyd,  [29] George Hewett,  [39] Alex Cincotta,  [8] Lachie Fogarty,  [16] Jack Carroll

Em: [19] Corey Durdin,  [33] Lewis Young,  [25] Jaxon Binns

In:  Adam Saad,  Lachlan Cowan,  Lachie Fogarty
Out:  Corey Durdin (Omitted),  Marc Pittonet (Injured),  Caleb Marchbank (Managed)

[1] We will miss Pittonet, who usually plays well against Witts. Tom has a very poor record against Witts and has always played to his weaknesses against him. If he plays to his strengths and moves Witts around ...
Still, I see this is a major danger.

[2] Saad, Cowan and Fogarty in is good for us. Saad defends and attacks. Fogarty keeps the ball in our forward half and provides opportunities for his team mates. Cowan played well last week in the 2's: I'd be thinking of using his in the middle.

[3] GC's strength is their midfield. If we can keep them under control, we should do well. But we should match up carefully.

[4] How Fantasia still gets games amazes me. Corey Durdin was good against Melbourne, but has been too quiet too often. How is he not better than Fantasia though? Fantasia has 1 goal in the seniors for the year and hasn't looked dangerous.

[5] Marchbank - he has to be a worry. If he can't play 3 weeks in a row, then he is done.

[6] Olli Hollands was brilliant against Melbourne for 3 quarters, but that's been it. He needs to stand up this round.

Just a couple of points:
Durdin has been way more ineffective than Fantasia. If Motlop was fit I'd guess neither would play.
With Moo back this week, I'd chuck Cincotta in the guts and add him to the midfield rotation. Played midfield in his VFL days, has size, speed, grunt and is a good driving (ie low) kick.
14
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Kick it too.......who? Our Inside 50 top targets.
Last post by ElwoodBlues1 -
I think the massive offer to Hayward shows there is concern from the footy dept we are a bit Charlie/Harry centric and need other goal avenue alternatives, especially with Martin intermittent in appearances and JSOS injured long term.
Premiership teams of recent years have had that variety and we lack that Fritsch, Heeney, O.Henry, Townsend, Dickson, J.Elliott marking type who can also be a threat at ground level and its compounded by our lack of a consistent small forward/s who can kick a bag of goals every now and then and also we lack the midfielders who can kick go forward and kick a bag too...
Sydney have average input from Amartey, McDonald and Mclean but the variety with Papley, Hayward, Heeney and Warner seems to offset not having dominant bigs and probably helps even more in poor conditions when marking is more difficult.
15
Blah-Blah Bar / Re: Trumpled (Alternative Leading)
Last post by LP -
Quote from: PaulP on
His whole political history is a prime example of this, surely ?
@PaulP Sorry I fixed it, should have written "global politics".

I was trying to discuss Trump's influence on dud politicians in other countries, the low end bottom feeders are adopting his tactics pretty much everywhere you look! Trump's behaviour like a universal user manual for how to sh1t in the pool and peg the blame on someone else!
17
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Kick it too.......who? Our Inside 50 top targets.
Last post by kruddler -
Quote from: madbluboy on
Only 3 teams kick more goals than us.
Only 4 teams concede more goals than us.

Sydney kick the most goals and concede the least.

I'm not going down the defending debate as we can save that for another thread. But in terms of attacking numbers.

Why do 3 teams kick more goals than us?
We have the best 2 key forwards in the game. They have won the last 3 coleman medals between them. Charlie is =1st currently and Harry is 6th (i think) so they are continuing to do their job.

The fact that somehow 3 teams are still outscoring us is backing up my point.
We need to find more avenues to goal.
We need to be less predictable.
Everygame we have lost has been when those 2 key forwards have had their worst games.
Stop Charlie+Harry stop carlton.

.......unless we get smarter and start using other players and.....yep....SPREAD THE LOAD.
18
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Kick it too.......who? Our Inside 50 top targets.
Last post by kruddler -
Quote from: DJC on
The problem with those simplistic analyses is that they don’t take into account goals that aren’t scored by Charlie, Harry or Tom but are the direct result of balls kicked to them, that is, the crumbing and scrambling goals scored after a marking contest.

Not entirely true.

If we target TDK, and Charlie crumbs the ball and kicks a goal. That goes down as goal scored from a TDK target, even though he may have had little bearing on the contest.

As mentioned earlier, its as much about not being outmarked as much as anything.

Quote from: DJC on
In fact, Charlie has kicked quite a few goals after crumbing marking contests.
...and that is shown in the stats. It doesn't matter if he marks and goals after he is targetted. It doesn't matter if he doesn't mark but goals. It doesn't even matter if he doesn't mark and someone else kicks a goal. It all goes down as a goal from targetting him.

Quote from: DJC on
One thing that has struck me this season is how often we’ve targeted players other than Charlie, Harry and Tom inside 50.   Owies with a total of 15 from both inside 50 targeted kicks and opportunistic goals is our third highest goal scorer.
How often? Or how infrequent??

Quote from: DJC on
Ahead of all is the cumulative total of 60 goals from kicks targeting Cripps, Cottrell, Kennedy, the Hollands brothers, Martin, Durdin, Fantasia, Hewett, Walsh, Acres, Cerra and Pittonet as well as goals arising from their crumbing and pressure applied to lock the ball inside 50.

We don’t need another forward 50 target.  We need a small forward who can make the most balls targeting our key forwards that go to ground and who can force turnovers and stoppages inside our forward 50.
As mentioned, some of those goals are already included. We are not simply counting 'Tony Lockett goals' ("Lead, mark, kick a goal" - thank you music men) We are counting goals from targets regardless of how it happens.

The last point you made, and one i made above, is i'm ignoring the small forwards, but its equally as valid as medium forwards.
We need more talent in this area. We need to SPREAD THE LOAD from our 2 key forwards. When we go elsewhere, we are better off. Stats show this.
19
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Kick it too.......who? Our Inside 50 top targets.
Last post by kruddler -
Quote from: northernblue on
Krudds,

“  49   -   43   -  73  - Targets leading to shots on goal (%)”

Is this the % of times these 3 are the target and we get a shot on goal as a result ?
If so, I’d read that as no one crumbing Charlie and H ‘cause they don’t drop many but they are roving to TDK because he seems to spill most of his chances ?

Yes....but not necessarily by the player we target.

TDKs could be so high, not necessarily because he takes marks, but because he doesn't get outmarked. Crumbing goals count if/when we target any player
Harry and Charlie may get outmarked more as a result which will never lead to a shot on goal.
20
Robert Heatley Stand / Re: Kick it too.......who? Our Inside 50 top targets.
Last post by kruddler -
Quote from: LP on
It's not really feasible to make conclusions about the absence of presence of SoJ or Martin unless the same analysis is done when they were available, and in context the circumstance is not the same season to season, so I doubt it holds much relevance.

Sigh, you've completely missed this point.

I'm not doing a comparison to TDK vs them.
What i'm saying is we don't have a fit 3rd tall forward apart from TDK.
What i'm saying is more talented forward options available clearly means we have more genuine targetting options to choose from, making us less reliant on Charlie and Harry.

Its the same thing when we had Fev. We didn't have many other genuine options over the years that we could target, so opposition knew where the ball was going and it made it easier for them.
Unpredictability to the opposition is your friend.
Being able to capitilise on that unpredictability is what we are lacking without other talented forwards in the team.

I've ignored small forwards in this debate, but same can be said for them as well.