AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Pre Game Prognostications

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Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #165 – September 21, 2023, 04:18:59 pm

Quote from: rocky on September 21, 2023, 04:09:40 pm

Think 1999 Preliminary final, ahhhh the joy, but yes hard to see us getting across the line on this occasion.

Yes, we can all dream, but there's clearly a difference between hoping to win on the one hand, and making a prediction based on the usual variables and inputs, on the other. There's not a footy pundit anywhere that predicts a Calton win (not that I can find), and with good reason. I certainly get that none of us care how we get over the line, we just want to see it happen.

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #166 – September 21, 2023, 04:34:59 pm

Quote from: PaulP on September 21, 2023, 04:18:59 pm

Yes, we can all dream, but there's clearly a difference between hoping to win on the one hand, and making a prediction based on the usual variables and inputs, on the other. There's not a footy pundit anywhere that predicts a Calton win (not that I can find), and with good reason. I certainly get that none of us care how we get over the line, we just want to see it happen.

That is fair Paul.

In fact the reason you say this is precisely why I will be elated if we win and why the Lions will simply focus on grand final day and the next win if they get up. It's also why they will be crushed if they lose (at the prelim again) and why we won't be too disappointed with a loss unless its heart-breakingly close.

Thing is statistically, its a 50-50 chance that either side will win, admittedly if we played this game 10 times, the statistics will likely see a change in outcomes, but with a few variables, it could range from a convincing win to Brisbane, and a similar scenario for Carlton.

When it all comes down to it, its a game of footy. May we all be complaining about tickets next week rather than anything else.

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #167 – September 21, 2023, 04:56:56 pm

Quote from: PaulP on September 21, 2023, 01:54:27 pm

On paper it all points to a comfortable win for the Lions. If you look at with your head rather than your heart, there's no other conclusion one can reach. Everything points in that direction. If we are to win, it will be a performance that defies a lot of football logic.

We will have to pull out a performance for the ages to win, or conversely Brisbane will have to put in a shocker.

And yet the analyses on the various footy all have us as the best performing team, followed by the Giants. I guess that's on LED rather than paper

David King's analysis is the outlier as he cites our inability to score more than 80 points in the first two finals as limiting our chances of progression. The flip side is that our defence, in keeping our opposition below 80 points, is outstanding.

I think that's the key to the game. Our rucks and midfield are equal to or stronger than Brisbane's, our defence is more than capable of keeping Brisbane's forwards to a losing score, but is our forward line capable of kicking a winning score? On paper they are, but Charlie, Harry and the supporting cast will have to play a lot better than they did in our first two finals.

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #168 – September 21, 2023, 04:58:58 pm

Agree DJC....the margin in a final is irrelevant......kick more than your opponent...you win.

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #169 – September 21, 2023, 05:36:22 pm

I'm going with ...I don't think we can win!

There's a scale to these things you know

1) Thinking you're no chance and getting up against the odds....that's number one, that's the best. (That's what most of us felt half way through the last quarter on Friday....and then it all changed.)

2) Thinking you're going to win...and winning. That's the second best, but it doesn't rank with number one.
3) Thinking you're going to lose and losing....painful, but not unexpected.
4) Thinking you're going to win and losing....That really sucks and hurts.

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #170 – September 21, 2023, 06:21:05 pm

Rocky nails it again!

Outs : Cunningham, Kemp, Kennedy & Owies.
Ins : Boyd, Hollands, Martin & McKay

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #171 – September 21, 2023, 06:23:11 pm

Rocky is Da Man.

Damn thats brutal selection though

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #172 – September 21, 2023, 06:23:16 pm

I find some of the analysis in the MSM a bit bewildering. There was a comparison of midfields where Carlton was fourth. The Carlton midfield they put up for comparison was Pittonett, Cripps, Docherty and Hewitt. I would have thought our midfield would be TDK, Cripps, Cerra and Walsh.
Brisbane is likely to win because they have been the second best team over the season and equal second I the last half of the season. They are a seriously good side, playing well and playing at home. They have had a break and they will be determined to win after the failures over the past couple of years.
Carlton will win because they have been the best team in the second half of the season, they are a seriously good team with room for improvement. They are matched hardened, they don't give up and they will turn up to play.
Brisbane's midfield is good but can be fragile and is not as deep as Carlton's especially without Ashcroft playing. The Big O can be dominated and pushed around. Their forward line has threats everywhere but while their defence has improved they can be scored against. Our backline is better but we don't have as many threats up forward and I think we put more emphasis on defence in our forward line while Brisbane are focused on scoring.
I think the game will turn on our ball movement. We were appalling earlier in the year against Brisbane and last week the only time we strung consecutive passes together was in the last minute.
I think if we kick it to our team mates and not turn the ball over and kick the goals we should we will win.

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #173 – September 21, 2023, 06:23:44 pm

I sincerely doubt that will be the way we line up, the only way I can imagine those MC changes are true are changes due to injuries or illness we do not know about!

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #174 – September 21, 2023, 06:28:02 pm

Bringing Boyd in cold for a PF is a big call.

Martin, McKay are obvious ins and Hollands is probably fair enough. Not a bad team on paper.

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #175 – September 21, 2023, 06:29:07 pm

Quote from: PaulP on September 21, 2023, 06:28:02 pm

Bringing Boyd in cold for a PF is a big call.

I suspect now there will be some big outs before Saturday night.

Re: AFL 2023 Preliminary Final Carlton vs Brisbane Pre Game Prognostications

Reply #176 – September 21, 2023, 06:30:29 pm

Quote from: DJC on September 21, 2023, 04:56:56 pm

And yet the analyses on the various footy all have us as the best performing team, followed by the Giants. I guess that's on LED rather than paper

David King's analysis is the outlier as he cites our inability to score more than 80 points in the first two finals as limiting our chances of progression. The flip side is that our defence, in keeping our opposition below 80 points, is outstanding.

I think that's the key to the game. Our rucks and midfield are equal to or stronger than Brisbane's, our defence is more than capable of keeping Brisbane's forwards to a losing score, but is our forward line capable of kicking a winning score? On paper they are, but Charlie, Harry and the supporting cast will have to play a lot better than they did in our first two finals.

King can't have thought much of Collingwood's 60 point effort (9.6) against the Pies then. Especially when their opposition have 25 shots to 15, including Melbourne's 7 out on the full's shooting at goal. We did better than that.