McGuane's take
Since Round 11 last year, Carlton has recorded seven wins and one draw from 18 games.
That’s a winning rate of just 38.9 per cent.
For a team that entered 2023 surrounded by plenty of hype and expectation, the first six weeks have been largely underwhelming.
The side has produced just three victories and a draw and has an ordinary percentage of 92.4.
AFL analyst Mick McGuane looks at where the Blues need to get to work if they want to play finals this year.
CLEARANCE CATASTROPHE
Carlton made a name for itself last year as a dominant contested ball and clearance team.
The Blues ranked second last season in both clearance differential and points from clearances differential.
Those numbers have since fallen off a cliff, with the side sitting 12th and 16th in the two categories respectively this year.
Carlton has won the clearance count in just two of its six matches this season and is sitting 3-3 when it comes to contested possession wins.
When you have an onball brigade boasting the likes of ruckmen Marc Pittonet and Tom De Koning and midfielders Patrick Cripps, George Hewett, Adam Cerra, Matthew Kennedy and Sam Walsh (accepting the fact he has only played 2 games) you should be putting up better numbers than that.
The Blues are not getting bang for buck when they are winning first possession at stoppages, either.
Turning first possession gains into effective clearances should be an immediate focus as it is something that will only enhance their attack.
Currently, the midfield is lacking synergy and cohesion and, too often, the Blues are structurally collapsing their “shape” outside the contest, limiting the usable options for the ball winner to help kickstart their offence.
They need to study the Western Bulldogs, who saturate the stoppages and structurally set up around the ruck contest as well as any side.
The Bulldogs chain out of stoppages with effective, quick handballs and putting a teammate into space is paramount for Carlton to improve its connection to its forwards.
The Blues have been a high possession team under coach Michael Voss, but it is not working for them right now.
Carlton had 446 disposals to St Kilda’s 360 last weekend, yet lost the inside-50 count 52-56 and lost the match by 22 points.
In general play, they played too safe and wanted to defend with the footy.
It is time to introduce some dare and embrace a chaos, go-forward style of game.
The Blues have assets in front of the ball but are disconnected and are not using them.
FORWARD-HALF EFFICIENCY
It is inconceivable that a team which boasts Twin Towers in attack — Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay — is averaging just 75.2 points a game this season.
That ranks the Blues a lowly 15th on the points for table.
Given the midfield they have got and the amount of possession they generate, you have to ask the question — Are players too happy to just rack up touches without having much impact?
Against St Kilda last weekend, Cerra (39 disposals), Walsh (38), Blake Acres (36), Cripps (34) and Hewett (29) were the five leading possession winners on the ground. Only one Saints player — Jack Sinclair (27) — had more than 24 disposals for the night.
It was evident that Carlton was trying to take away St Kilda’s pressure game through uncontested marks, but it appeared to become counterintuitive as their build up to go forward was too slow and methodical — making it predictable and giving St. Kilda a chance to set up the ground defensively.
The other important aspect of forward-half efficiency is picking the right options and hitting your targets inside-50 with what is known as the ‘money kick.’
The AFL average for retaining possession from kicks inside-50 stands at 47 per cent.
Cerra has had 31 kicks inside 50 for a retention rate of 45 per cent, while wingman Ollie Hollands (40 per cent) and Blake Acres (38 per cent) are also going at below-par rates.
Captain Patrick Cripps is no better than the AFL average, with just 47 per cent of his 19 kicks inside-50 having been retained by his side.
Who is Carlton’s version of Sydney’s money kick player Errol Gulden?
Until the Blues improve their ball security going forward, they will continue to be hurt the other way.
Carlton ranks 15th for conceding opposition points from defensive half, giving up over six goals per game on average.
Having a slow midfield group doesn’t help you to get back and defend on turnover, either.
Just have a look at how Adelaide punished Carlton on turnover in round 5 and how slow the Blues midfield group looked when asked to chase.
WHERE ARE THE MIDFIELD GOALS?
From his first six games last season, Cripps kicked 11.4 from the midfield.
From his first six games this year, he has booted only seven behinds.
The skipper is but one example of a midfield group that is simply not contributing to keeping the scoreboard ticking over this year.
Zac Fisher (2.1), Ed Curnow (1.2), Cerra (1.2), Acres (1.1), Walsh (1.0), Matthew Kennedy (0.2), Hollands (0.2), Lachie O’Brien (0.1) and Hewett (0.0) have also added very little.
Those sort of returns are not good enough.
Maybe it is time for Cripps to be challenged to take on more of a midfield-forward role in a bid to add to the scoreboard, in a similar vein to what the likes of Dustin Martin, Christian Petracca, Patrick Dangerfield and Marcus Bontempelli have done.
Because at the moment, the Blues are a one-trick pony in front of the ball.
Key forward Curnow has been exceptional, kicking 21.11 and providing a constant threat for the opposition to manage.
He has kicked 33 per cent of Carlton’s total goals this year.
But beyond Curnow, the avenues to goal are limited.
HARRY NEEDS PRACTICE
The great American football coach Vince Lombardi once said, “Practice doesn’t make perfect. Perfect practice makes perfect.”
When I look at Harry McKay, I don’t think he knows what the ‘perfect practice’ is with his goalkicking because he doesn’t have a routine bed-down.
AFL goalkicking greats Tony Lockett, Jason Dunstall and Matthew Lloyd all had routines and reverted back to what they knew worked – time and time again.
They believed in what they practised.
When McKay takes a mark inside-50, it is anyone’s guess what kick is coming next.
He will do a snap shot one minute and a drop punt the next minute – both from a similar area of the ground.
McKay needs to make time to do the extra work and develop a regular routine so it will be transferable to match day.
From there, he has to forget about the little man in his head telling him to ‘try this’ or ‘do that’.
The negative thoughts that appear to be entering his mind during the pressure cooker of a game are not only opening McKay up to criticism but also to ridicule.
Signing big contracts comes with high standards and expectations, so he must start to honour his end of the bargain.
Right now, he looks mentally fragile and defeated when he lines up for goal.
His shot at goal accuracy is sitting at a disappointing 39.1 per cent.
His club needs him to be better than that.
The constant misses can also drop the morale of his teammates, who are doing the hard work further up the field to provide him with scoring opportunities.
DISAPPOINTING DEVELOPMENT
Where is Paddy Dow?
The answer is in Carlton’s VFL side, which is not somewhere a No. 3 draft pick in his sixth season should be.
Dow has been super consistent across his five VFL appearances this year, but the Blues either don’t believe he can bridge the gap to AFL level or have no faith in him.
If that is the case, why didn’t they make the hard decision to find Dow a new home through the trade period last year?
If they do believe in him, why not play him?
If Voss thinks he is low in the midfield pecking order, then why not develop him for another role?
Another top-10 draft pick, Lachie O’Brien, is getting senior games but similarly hasn’t kicked on as hoped.
Yes, he is playing an outside wing role.
But can he be trusted when it comes to his decision making and contest work when the game is in the balance and the footy is at its hottest?
Meanwhile, Liam Stocker (St Kilda) and Will Setterfield (Essendon) are firing for their new clubs after struggling to find a regular spot in the Blues’ line-up last season.
These cases — along with McKay’s goalkicking woes — raise questions over whether Carlton’s development coaches are doing enough to fast-track some of the young talent under their care.
HONEYMOON IS OVER
Over the next eight weeks, we’ll learn a lot about both this Carlton side and the coaching ability of Michael Voss.
The honeymoon period is over for the second-year coach.
Credit where credit is due, Voss was able to bring a change of attitude and some vastly-improved competitiveness to the side in his first campaign in charge last year.
However, the drop off in the second half of last season was poor and the way the Blues have started this year has not been any better.
Voss gets a huge tick as coach for preparing his team well each week.
But is he changing things in-game that he needs to change when the game is not on Carlton’s terms?
Carlton fans are getting restless and the jungle drums will be beating even louder if their team can’t overcome a struggling West Coast in Perth this weekend.
After the Eagles, there are games to come against Brisbane, Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, Sydney, Melbourne, Essendon and Gold Coast before the bye.
Just imagine if the Blues only win two of their next eight games.
It could very quickly become another wasted year if Voss and his side are unable to promptly address some glaring issues.
As things stand, I’m not tipping Carlton to feature in September as there looks to be more doom and gloom ahead.
It is over to Voss and his players to prove me wrong and it must start this Saturday with a dominant display against a depleted West Coast.
McGuane has reinforced what a few of us have been saying for a while....
Thanks for posting that. It's basically a round up of the issues that have been discussed on here and in the footy world generally. Personally I don't think it's relevant what happened last season - the inclusion of 2022 data (apart from perhaps the clearance work) seems a deliberate ploy to skew the opinion in a negative direction. Whilst I'm certainly not suggesting everything is hunky dory, nor that there aren't issues that need sorting, If you read that without knowing results, ladder position and the like, you'd think we were coming 15th and headed for the scrap heap.
We've played 6 games. Drawn 1, won 3 lost 2.
The Adelaide game was arguably the most concerning because it was a typical not rock up to play game for us which seems to happen too frequently. Anything else is hyperbole.
Thry....3-2-1 after 6 games on the face of it isn't too bad. But when you compare it to how we played in those first 10 or so games last year...it's probably what McGuane is referring to. Either we've dropped right off or other teams have improved way more than us. It's the way we're playing that's the worry. The Geelong game was probably our best given who we were playing...but even they were off the boil in those first few weeks and we nearly let that one slip in the last quarter as well. Richmond have been ordinary and we gave up a win there too. We were lucky to scrape past GWS. North was probably the one where we could've really put the foot down but even that day we let them kick the last 4 goals after a pretty tight first half. In most games, it's been one, maybe two good quarters of footy.
It seems that everything that was working for us last year, isn't this year.
Richmond wasnt a great result imho...they are very average and wont make the eight......
McGuane is spot on with his thoughts on Voss and in his game coaching and its a common thread with our last three coaches that they have struggled with changing momentum in games.
What McGuane is saying is true.....but i think he has things a bit backwards.
Cause and effect.
1. Yes, midfield numbers are inflated.
2. Yes, kicking inside 50 has been average.
3. Yes, our movement has been slow/poor.
4. Yes, Dow is in the 2's and performing well.
5. Yes, midfield goals are down, specifically Cripps.
6. Yes, Harry has a variety of kicks that he uses.
7. Yes, we've only won the clearances twice this year.
1. Using the Saints game as an example. They flooded back, rather than 'bomb long to a pack' we played the keepings off game until we could find a decent option....
2. .....but even those options were not great and our entries were poor because the saints flooded back quickly and....
3. ....our fastest, best kicking players are out injured. Saad, Docherty are the players McGuane is wanting......as would be Martin, Williams and even Cuningham. Yet, none of them were available for selection this week.
4. So we could bring in Dow.....but he is neither fast, line breaking type player, not good with ball in hand.....so do we try and fix it or try more of the same?
5. Yes, Cripps has been poor this year compared to last year in front of goal......last year he spent a lot of time inside 50 as a marking option....hence the downturn from him. Add in the keepings off/flooding opposition and its hard for mids to get shots on goals.
6. Harry knows where he is kicking what from and when. He has explained this a number of times. If Micky doesn't know, or understand, then thats on him. I could draw him a map if it helps. Funny how he was using the same styles when he won the Coleman medal a couple years ago....but that wasn't mentioned. Sure, Harry had a couple shockers which brings this to everyones attention.....but it'd be the same in his coleman medal winning season as well. Give the bloke a break. I could point out plenty of yips that Micky had in front of goal too.
7. Won clearances only twice. We have 0 wins, 1 loss and 1 draw from those games. Shows us that clearances can be overrated as we've won 3 games without winning the clearances. Those stats tell us we are better off losing the clearances. Didn't wanna highlight that fact?
McGuane has reinforced what a few of us have been saying for a while....
Yep he is spot on.
Richmond wasnt a great result imho...they are very average and wont make the eight......
McGuane is spot on with his thoughts on Voss and in his game coaching and its a common thread with our last three coaches that they have struggled with changing momentum in games.
Agree, and this week may just may just add further confirmation of what McGuane has said and what a number of people on here have been saying for a little while now. We need a solid and convincing win this week imho and that may go some way to dispelling the doubts and restoring some confidence. 🤞
Fronted up pissed to training then whacked a respected senior player.....yeah nah I think Id trust someone else's opinion thanks.
Fronted up pissed to training then whacked a respected senior player.....yeah nah I think Id trust someone else's opinion thanks.
You stole my thunder Proff, stick to coaching Keilor Mick, when you're ready to dip the the toe in the water in the grown ups pool, then write articles. In the mean time, back to the shallow end of the kiddies pool for you.
If anyone is interested in knowing what Vossy's leadership style is based on, take a hour to listen to this:
https://open.spotify.com/episode/6glcEsUNiGw3jKtEq29Zp8?si=klslm2OXTBSX9sGptoEOGw
Thry....3-2-1 after 6 games on the face of it isn't too bad. But when you compare it to how we played in those first 10 or so games last year...it's probably what McGuane is referring to. Either we've dropped right off or other teams have improved way more than us. It's the way we're playing that's the worry. The Geelong game was probably our best given who we were playing...but even they were off the boil in those first few weeks and we nearly let that one slip in the last quarter as well. Richmond have been ordinary and we gave up a win there too. We were lucky to scrape past GWS. North was probably the one where we could've really put the foot down but even that day we let them kick the last 4 goals after a pretty tight first half. In most games, it's been one, maybe two good quarters of footy.
It seems that everything that was working for us last year, isn't this year.
I've witnessed us attempting to learn how to play tempo footy, and implement a different game style. We went back to the blistering stiff against North for about 10 mins.
We are going to put it all together sooner or later and work out when to go fast and slow. It's not all doom and gloom.
I've witnessed us attempting to learn how to play tempo footy, and implement a different game style. We went back to the blistering stiff against North for about 10 mins.
We are going to put it all together sooner or later and work out when to go fast and slow. It's not all doom and gloom.
Voss has stated a few times that we can't rely on dominating the contest to win every game, and that players and coaches are trying to implement a Plan B / changing gears / different ways to win. It's clunky at the moment, and most definitely still a work in progress.
Full credit to him for naming 2 of our rucks and most of our midfield.
He didn’t mention Pitto delayed and unfit start to the season or mention that sos is our second ruck…
It’s an opinion piece, mumble a couple of players names and say something about clearances and hey presto I’ve written an article, who’s shout for lunch ?
Dow has been super consistent across his five VFL appearances this year, but the Blues either don’t believe he can bridge the gap to AFL level or have no faith in him.
If that is the case, why didn’t they make the hard decision to find Dow a new home through the trade period last year?
If they do believe in him, why not play him?
If Voss thinks he is low in the midfield pecking order, then why not develop him for another role?
I'd be surprised if Paddy Dow couldn't do a better job as a crumbing small forward than the current crop.
At least he'd get the ball. ::)
I'd be surprised if Paddy Dow couldn't do a better job as a crumbing small forward than the current crop.
At least he'd get the ball. ::)
I’m still of the opinion that our small forwards have been set other priorities
I'd be surprised if Paddy Dow couldn't do a better job as a crumbing small forward than the current crop.
At least he'd get the ball. ::)
Binns has played as a small forward at U18 level and Id give him a go too..
Not a huge fan of articles from M McG. Has that awesome ability to state the bleedin' obvious and focus on the easy stuff... the problems. No solutions or suggestions forthcoming.
However... the facts don't lie.
Personally, I believe it to be mostly above the shoulders and approach to games. The boldness and dare has vanished from our game, and this is when we look our most dangerous. We've got the talent on the paddock (mostly) to make quick, bold decisions and actions. Trust your instincts, don't try to control games. Take it on.
As with our MC selections, we've become conservative, cautious and totally reactionary. That is not a recipe for finals action. I put this on our Head of Football, B Lloyd. I was surprised he kept his job. Nothing in his CV suggests an exceptional HoF.
This conservative, cautious and reactionary attitude has infiltrated the playing group and is the antithesis of trusting a mostly talented group to be bold and play on instinct and as they say, 'put speed on the ball.' Look at the sides atop the ladder, plenty of speed on the aggott, risk and trust. Let this group take the game on with boldness and risk, it'll make us less predictable and will certainly support our forwards re quick entries before defenders can position themselves.
I’m still of the opinion that our small forwards have been set other priorities
Id be questioning who set those priorities then because they hardly touch the ball, dont create much pressure and are very light on for goals. I'm beginning to think Owies is a bit more important to us than the others.
Its rare that our small forwards have a won us a game and then you look at players like Charlie Cameron, Papley, Higgins, Rankine etc hitting the scoreboard hard and winning games for their respective clubs.
Richmond have lost the edge they had with their small forwards and look very impotent now.....we need to improve strongly in this area and probably need to make some list changes accordingly imho.
Im not sold that Durdin is playing badly.
When Owies is in the team, he and Durdin both look fine. Motlop is the one who tends to flash in and out of games more. Its possible that without Owies, the work Durdin is doing is both unable to be seen and unrewarded.
I'm beginning to think Owies is a bit more important to us than the others.
I've thought this for a while now, it's not that he has any special tricks the others don't have, he just plays at and has a level of physicality and work ethic that they don't, at least not yet.
I think it comes from being over in the NBA minor leagues, the little white guy surrounded by giants, you can imagine the workout he copped in the B-Grade comp, you'd have to be resilient!
After the emotion of a loss, perspective tends to kick in for me. We are 3-1-2. The two losses were at the hands of the team at the top of the ladder (like it or not) and a red hot home team in Adelaide the week of gather round in Adelaide. We were missing arguably our two best running defenders the. Ive taken a Bex, had a lie down and reset my mind to this week. Lets see how it pans out. Then we have some serious tests but if we can get back to our even near best, we can make a good fist of it.
I've thought this for a while now, it's not that he has any special tricks the others don't have, he just plays at and has a level of physicality and work ethic that they don't, at least not yet.
I think it comes from being over in the NBA minor leagues, the little white guy surrounded by giants, you can imagine the workout he copped in the B-Grade comp, you'd have to be resilient!
Owies was a bench guard in the main so had limited minutes for the Rainbow Warriors in Huawei so you have to make the most of your time to impact. He also played as an inside mid at St Kevins so he knows how to win his own ball, take a hit and work in traffic. Id actually like to see Motlop and Durdin thrown on the ball during games especially when we need a lift and see if they can give us some spark, at worst it will give them more experience and they might actually help win us a game or two if they can impact.
Has McGuane revised his opinion yet?
Yes, it was a win over a relatively weak West Coast but they’ve had a win and will trouble more highly rated teams over the season.
The problem with so-called “expert analyses” is that they select factoids that support their premises and ignore other, more relevant data. I suspect that any of our assistant coaches could run rings around McGuane when it comes understanding modern footy.
Has McGuane revised his opinion yet?
Yes, it was a win over a relatively weak West Coast but they’ve had a win and will trouble more highly rated teams over the season.
The problem with so-called “expert analyses” is that they select factoids that support their premises and ignore other, more relevant data. I suspect that any of our assistant coaches could run rings around McGuane when it comes understanding modern footy.
He should hand back his wages for writing it.
Has McGuane revised his opinion yet?
Yes, it was a win over a relatively weak West Coast but they’ve had a win and will trouble more highly rated teams over the season.
The problem with so-called “expert analyses” is that they select factoids that support their premises and ignore other, more relevant data. I suspect that any of our assistant coaches could run rings around McGuane when it comes understanding modern footy.
West Coast are horrible...their WAFL version is getting hammered every week and their recruiting sucks bigtime, they need a cleanout on and off the field. I never thought I would see such a poor WC team given their finances and membership resources.
I think we can also look at the Richmond game and view that as an unspectacular result too and we gave away 2 points. They are terrible and also need a rebuild and new voice in the coaching box.
West Coast are horrible...their WAFL version is getting hammered every week and their recruiting sucks bigtime, they need a cleanout on and off the field. I never thought I would see such a poor WC team given their finances and membership resources.
I think we can also look at the Richmond game and view that as an unspectacular result too and we gave away 2 points. They are terrible and also need a rebuild and new voice in the coaching box.
West Coast might be horrible but we scored our first >100 points winning margin since 2011. That's what the better teams do to teams that are struggling and we haven't been able to manage that for far too long. West Coast has 18 players out with injury, including some of their better players and they'll trouble teams if they can get some key players back. Of course, West Coast defeated GWS, who have been competitive in all of their games and got wins against Adelaide and the Swans.
Richmond is another team with a significant injury list and they will be a force in the second half of the season. They had a much stronger list to choose from in Round 1.
It wasn't so long ago that folk were writing Geelong off too.
Despite some lopsided results and apparent easybeats at the bottom of the ladder, it's a very even competition and any team can get rolled if it's a little off its game.
I expect we'll hear "Brisbane don't travel well" and "They missed Zorko and Rich" when we win on Friday.
Only a premiership will silence the doubters ... and that's how it should be. But that doesn't give self-proclaimed "experts" like McGuane the right to go unchallenged when he serves up a load of unsubstantiated waffle.
Id be questioning who set those priorities then because they hardly touch the ball, dont create much pressure and are very light on for goals. I'm beginning to think Owies is a bit more important to us than the others.
Its rare that our small forwards have a won us a game and then you look at players like Charlie Cameron, Papley, Higgins, Rankine etc hitting the scoreboard hard and winning games for their respective clubs.
Richmond have lost the edge they had with their small forwards and look very impotent now.....we need to improve strongly in this area and probably need to make some list changes accordingly imho.
You watch StKilda play.
They go forward to a moving target and they have someone float across in front to take a protected mark BUT they also have someone front and square to crumb.
We do not.
The only reason I can think of for WHY is that our small forwards have been assigned “other tasks”
You’re right, they don’t get big tackle numbers and they don’t kick many goals, but maybe they are filling spaces and blocking traffic so we don’t get hurt so hard on the rebound ?
Our small forwards are not big goal kickers.
Our small forwards are not big tacklers.
I can only assume they have other tasks that are viewed as being more important… 🤷🏼♂️