Carlton Supporters Club

Princes Park => Robert Heatley Stand => Topic started by: Lods on March 22, 2019, 07:23:21 pm

Title: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Lods on March 22, 2019, 07:23:21 pm
Goal Tracker 2019

Another year…
Last year we went backwards in terms of Goals scored!
What about this year?
Where will the goals come from?
How many will we get this year?
Who'll be the leading goalkicker?
Will we improve our percentage from 2018 to 2019?

After Round 1

2017
Goals-14 Behinds-5
Percentage 67.4% (For- 89, Against- 132)

2018
 
Goals-15 Behinds 5
Percentage 78.5% (For- 95, Against- 121)

2019
(Target 2018-Goals 192- Behinds 201- For 1353)

Goals- 9 Behinds 10
Percentage 66% (For-64 Against 97)


Goalkickers
(Target 2018- Charlie Curnow  34-20 -224)

2018
Wright 5
Curnow 5
Garlett 2
Casboult -1
Petrevski- Seton-1
Fisher- 1

2019
McKay 2
Fasolo 1
C. Curnow 1
McGovern 1
Murphy 1
Fisher 1
Thomas 1
Newman 1
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Lods on April 05, 2019, 08:25:15 am
After Round 2

2017
Goals-23 Behinds-15
Percentage 70.2% (For- 153, Against- 218)

2018  
Goals-24 Behinds 18
Percentage 73% (For- 162, Against- 222)

2019
(Target 2018-Goals 192- Behinds 201- For 1353)

Goals-20 Behinds 16
Percentage 73.5% (For 136, Against 185)

Goalkickers
(Target 2018- Charlie Curnow  34-20 -224)

2018
Wright 7
Curnow 7
Garlett 2
Fisher- 2

2019
McKay 4
McGovern 3
Fasolo 2
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Lods on April 08, 2019, 12:18:02 pm
After Round 3

2017
Goals-30 Behinds-30 (We once kicked this score in one game  :D)
Percentage  80.8 %   (For- 210, Against- 260)

2018  
Goals-35  Behinds 28
Percentage  73.9 % (For- 238, Against- 322)

2019

(Target 2018-Goals 192- Behinds 201- For 1353)

Goals- 30 Behinds-30 (There’s that score again :D )
Percentage   75.5% (For-210, Against-278)

Goalkickers

(Target 2018- Charlie Curnow  34-20 -224)

2018

C.Curnow 9
Wright 7
Casboult 5
Garlett 3
Fisher- 3

2019

McKay 5
E.Curnow 5
McGovern 4
Murphy 2
Fasolo 2
Fisher 2

Odd statistic...
In round 2 1969 we scored 30-30-210 against Hawthorn.
After 3 rounds in both 2017 and 2019 we're locked on that total for the three games so far.

Goals are down on last year to this point...but defence looks better.
As a result we're slightly ahead on percentage after 3 rounds.

Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Lods on April 15, 2019, 08:32:56 pm
After Round 4

2017
Goals-42  Behinds-40 
Percentage  79.4%   (For- 292, Against- 368)

2018 
Goals-39  Behinds 34
Percentage  61.2 % (For- 268, Against- 438)

2019
(Target 2018-Goals 192- Behinds 201- For 1353)
Goals-38 Behinds 39
Percentage 79.2% (For 267 Against 337)

Goalkickers
(Target 2018- Charlie Curnow  34-20 -224)

2018
Curnow 9
Wright 8
Casboult 5
Garlett 5
Fisher- 3

2019
McGovern 7
McKay 5
E Curnow 5
Cripps 3
Fisher 3

So there’s something to hang our hat on here…still the 4 losses but...
We’re one point behind our “points for” total after round 4 last year.
Of more significance our defence is looking strong and we’re a hundred points better in terms of "points conceded" than last year.

4 goals + per game.
As a result our percentage has improved significantly after the same number of games.(61.2% to 79.2%)

In the first 4 games last year we conceded
121 v Richmond
101 v Gold Coast
100 v Collingwood
116 v North
(4 Times in 4 games over 100)

So far this year we’ve only conceded
97 v Richmond
88 v Port Adelaide
93 v Sydney
59 v Gold Coast
No 100 point games by us…but none by the opposition either.

Gains in one specific area, but still an improvement in measurable terms.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: DJC on April 16, 2019, 07:58:31 am
Interesting Lods, but that has to be seen in the context of low scoring games across the board, as Dennis Cometti points out:

Quote

“We had a lot of rule changes in the off-season designed to increase scoring,” Cometti said. “Well, after four rounds, I can tell you we’re losing ground here because currently the average team score is 81 points a game. The last time it was lower was 1967.

“In this season so far, teams have scored over 100 points 14 times — the same time last year, we had the number at 26.”

Are our gains actual, or a product of the rule changes?  I suspect that our defence is a lot more effective than it was last season.  Although our forward line looks dysfunctional, it can’t be too bad if we’re matching last year’s scores - unless everyone else has been dragged down to our level  :-\
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Lods on April 16, 2019, 08:42:04 am
Interesting Lods, but that has to be seen in the context of low scoring games across the board, as Dennis Cometti points out:

Are our gains actual, or a product of the rule changes?  I suspect that our defence is a lot more effective than it was last season.  Although our forward line looks dysfunctional, it can’t be too bad if we’re matching last year’s scores - unless everyone else has been dragged down to our level  :-\

Lets look at in relation to other sides.

We're 18th best for "points for"
But 11th best for "points conceded"....last year we were last.
So yes, we're considerably better

As for the forward line....all they're matching is the worst performance by a Carlton attack since we went to  22 game season.
It's bad!
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: flyboy77 on April 16, 2019, 09:00:00 am
Lets look at in relation to other sides.

We're 18th best for "points for"
But 11th best for "points conceded"....last year we were last.
So yes, we're considerably better

As for the forward line....all they're matching is the worst performance by a Carlton attack since we went to  22 game season.
It's bad!

Blame the coaches for that one!
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Dave on April 16, 2019, 09:16:58 am
Lets look at in relation to other sides.

We're 18th best for "points for"
But 11th best for "points conceded"....last year we were last.
So yes, we're considerably better

As for the forward line....all they're matching is the worst performance by a Carlton attack since we went to  22 game season.
It's bad!


To be honest, I am not surprised. We have good potential with the tall forwards but not the smalls.

Gibbons, Polson, Ed Curnow and other makeshift small forwards are not working for us. Yes, Curnow had 1 game whereby he kicked 4 goals but does anyone really think it will happen again anytime soon? I miss players such as Eddie, Garlett, Rice, Heaver, Yazz, Troy Bond, Luke O'Sullivan etc who are natural forward line players with good goal sense.

The media focus has been on the talls not working together. That is only part of the problem and one I think that will work itself out soon. Having small forwards that do not kick goals is a major issue and a weakness in the recruiting strategy thus far. We have recruited injury prone small forwards in Fasolo and Pickett. They are still getting injured and/or are not good enough. LeBoi has never been good enough. In all other areas we have enough potential and there is hope. We have neglected/half heatedly focussed on this area and need to get it right asap.

Tall forwards are a centrepiece but without good crumbing forwards to support them, it is going to be hard to kick a score big enough to consistently win games.

Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Thryleon on April 16, 2019, 09:30:58 am
Interesting Lods, but that has to be seen in the context of low scoring games across the board, as Dennis Cometti points out:

Are our gains actual, or a product of the rule changes?  I suspect that our defence is a lot more effective than it was last season.  Although our forward line looks dysfunctional, it can’t be too bad if we’re matching last year’s scores - unless everyone else has been dragged down to our level  :-\

Can I just say, that the tinkering of the rules is doing more harm than good (its a position I have held for years)??

How do we expect a young inexperienced team get better in a situation where the game is transformed every year by rule changes??


Geelong are going to win a flag, because they keep having a team of experienced players, with a solid foundation of game plan and culture, which is conducive to being best able to make minor tweaks to take advantage of said rule changes.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: DJC on April 16, 2019, 10:01:51 am
Can I just say, that the tinkering of the rules is doing more harm than good (its a position I have held for years)?? Yes, rule changes generally produce counter-intuitive results and often fail to give appropriate credit for coaches’ ability to develop tactics to negate the changes.

How do we expect a young inexperienced team get better in a situation where the game is transformed every year by rule changes??I’m not sure that rule changes have much impact; younger players will make poor decisions regardless of the rules.  Perhaps a more pertinent question is how do we expect supporters to appreciate the game when the AFL is constantly attempting to transform it?


Geelong are going to win a flag, because they keep having a team of experienced players, with a solid foundation of game plan and culture, which is conducive to being best able to make minor tweaks to take advantage of said rule changes.I’m not sure that they will win the flag but they do have a well-balanced list and plenty of depth.  In fact, they are considerably better than I thought.  Of course, they do have a considerable home ground advantage on their side too!
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: flyboy77 on April 16, 2019, 10:10:13 am
Rules don't affect one's ability to execute BASIC SKILLS.

Let's get the basics sorted before we address the nuances?
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Thryleon on April 16, 2019, 11:39:40 am
@DJC, our lack of composure stems from a lack of understanding of what to do in what situation.  the 6-6-6 has resulted in us having to adjust what we do when we are in front (i.e. structuring up behind the ball, and in midfield which is where the bulk of our inexperience which effects our ability to find our forwards).  Some of our boys are still finding their feet at AFL level, and are only just getting up to AFL level fitness.  The rules have had an effect here.  Increased workrate is required to structure up accordingly due to having to get into starting positions and run harder, faster further than ever before.

Its really simple for me.  I grew up playing a sport where the rules didnt change much if at all.  The way an experienced player handles game situations, is very different to how an inexperienced head does, and that means that we are significantly effected with respect to shifting goalposts, and might go someway to explain the lack of form of Charlie Curnow (who is covering a lot of distance to achieve, not much).


Rules don't affect one's ability to execute BASIC SKILLS.

Let's get the basics sorted before we address the nuances?


Yes and no.

I.e. The experienced sides are better able to adjust, because all they have to change where they are kicking under pressure.

Our boys are trying to figure out what to do under pressure, and then execute it accordingly.  they are inexperienced and therefore choose the wrong option under pressure (Dow handballing into the corridor instead of kicking down the line with a couple of minutes left) and execute it poorly because of the pressure.

Nuances are extremely pertinent to decision making, and therefore composure.  Inexperience needs more time to execute things and appreciate the situation and then choose the appropriate option.

Minus runners who are "onfield" coaches so to speak and you have even less ability to execute under pressure due to lack of composure.

Anyone will tell you that these guys execute the basics at training extremely well, and in game situations, a metre off can look like a canyon of difference.

Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: LP on April 16, 2019, 11:44:10 am
Yes and no.

I.e. The experienced sides are better able to adjust, because all they have to change where they are kicking under pressure.

Yes, it's clear rules can affect the threshold which determines a basic skill non-linearly. There are many who were OK under the old rules who have quickly become unacceptable, this seems to be the driving force behind coaching tactics.

So exposed is the fact that the megalomaniac coaches are nowhere near as good at teaching athletes to kick the football as they claim. The game tactics confirm this, it's like an admission of guilt or inability! ;)
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: flyboy77 on April 16, 2019, 11:46:32 am
I think you guys, like the 455 coaches at CFC - and the players - are over thinking it.

It's a pretty darn simple game really.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Thryleon on April 16, 2019, 11:47:12 am
Yes, it's clear rules can affect the threshold which determines a basic skill non-linearly. There are many who were OK under the old rules who have quickly become unacceptable, this seems to be the driving force behind coaching tactics.

So exposed is the fact that the megalomaniac coaches are nowhere near as good at teaching athletes to kick the football as they claim. The game tactics confirm this, it's like an admission of guilt or inability! ;)

You could argue that the players are the ones that work on honing their skills, not the coaches.

The coaches are there to direct traffic, and inform players on where they can and should improve particularly with respect to the game plan.

Where a player has gone from acceptable to unacceptable can be a combination of factors, but the one that is likely to be the biggest is composure.

its cost us more than anything thus far.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: LP on April 16, 2019, 11:50:12 am
I think you guys, like the 455 coaches at CFC - and the players - are over thinking it.

It's a pretty darn simple game really.

Not as it is being coached, administered and implemented.

You cannot take a simplistic approach to this problem, you have to accept every coach is looking for loopholes and weaknesses.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Thryleon on April 16, 2019, 12:03:09 pm
I think you guys, like the 455 coaches at CFC - and the players - are over thinking it.

It's a pretty darn simple game really.

There is nothing simple about proffesional sports.

If you are off by 1.1seconds, that can be the difference between winning and losing.

If you run 5 metres to your right, instead of to your left, it results in a score against rather than a score for.

If you kick it behind a player, rather than in front of the same can occur.

Ironically sometimes the opposite to what we expect to occur happens.

The way players move on field isnt an accident.  Its a complex mechanism of 36 individuals all playing on the same oval moving in relation to each other.

The simple part is what happens when you have the footy in your own personal possession.  The difficult part??  The 150 metre run off the ball to drag an opponent out of a teamates space, to create space for one of your teamates to work into, and provide the necessary seperation to transition.  What we really don't see, is how sometimes players work their dots off to create the overlap run, only for us to stuff the kick up forcing us to transition from offense to defense, and then have said player caught completely out of position.  The commentators point to said player not working hard enough to get back, when odds are they are working harder than anyone on the field (i noted Simpson do this twice against richmond from opposite flanks, half back to half forward to get two positions in a minute).

If we turn it over, he is out of defense, at half forward, and having to do 400 metres, in 2 mins to get back into his defensive position.

Simple game my foot.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: flyboy77 on April 16, 2019, 12:32:30 pm
The key to a great coach (or 455 as the case may be) is to keep the message simple.

I repeat, it's all overthought....

That , or the greater majority of our blokes have a single digit IQ!  ;)
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: JonHenry on April 16, 2019, 01:01:18 pm
Rules don't affect one's ability to execute BASIC SKILLS.

Let's get the basics sorted before we address the nuances?

Biggest problem in every organisation.
Something along the lines of crawling before you walk.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: spf on April 22, 2019, 01:15:29 pm
Are we still doing the Goal tracker?
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Lods on April 22, 2019, 01:43:43 pm
Are we still doing the Goal tracker?

We are...its completed up to round 4
I'll do this weeks in the next day or two

I suspect (know) we're now ahead of last year for points for and I know for sure our percentage is much better after Round 5
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Lods on April 22, 2019, 03:47:21 pm
After Round 5

2017
Goals-48  Behinds-51 
Percentage  67.1%   (For- 339, Against- 505)

2018

Goals-49  Behinds -43
Percentage  65.2 % (For- 337, Against- 517)

2019
(Target 2018-Goals 192- Behinds 201- For 1353)

Goals-53 Behinds 50
Percentage 93.4% (For 368 Against 394)

Goalkickers
(Target 2018- Charlie Curnow 34-20 -224)

2017
Casboult 9
Silvagni 6
Wright 6

2018
Curnow 9
Wright 8
Casboult 7
Garlett 5
McKay 4
Fisher- 4

2019
McKay 9
McGovern 8
E Curnow 5
Fisher 4

Ahead of last year’s goal total at the same stage now
Ahead of last year’s percentage to the same period.
Defence is maintaining its strong effort well up on points against last year

Harry leading the goalkicking, but has been a bit inaccurate...9-8-62 for the season
McGovern second with 8-3 -51
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: flyboy77 on April 23, 2019, 08:32:29 am
On those numbers, we're conceding 4 goals a game less every game, on average.

That's impressive - and puts us in many games (as we have been) that previously we would have been out of....
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: jeza on April 23, 2019, 08:43:20 am
If you ignore everything else and just look at the percentage we've made significant progress this season.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Lods on April 23, 2019, 08:52:41 am
If you ignore everything else and just look at the percentage we've made significant progress this season.

As I mentioned in another thread, at the start of the season the percentage can fluctuate dramatically due to the fact you're dealing with small numbers in the for and against columns.

A 50 point win or loss in round 5 will impact your percentage much more than a 50 point win/loss will in round 20.

We jumped more than 10 percentage point off the back of a good win.
It also helps us that most of our games have been low scoring affairs from both sides.

But yep...it's better to have it moving in a positive direction
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Lods on April 23, 2019, 09:02:18 am
On those numbers, we're conceding 4 goals a game less every game, on average.

That's impressive - and puts us in many games (as we have been) that previously we would have been out of....

It is the most impressive part of our season so far...
We're 9th best in terms of points scored against us at the moment.
This time last year we were 17th
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: jeza on April 23, 2019, 01:08:37 pm
As I mentioned in another thread, at the start of the season the percentage can fluctuate dramatically due to the fact you're dealing with small numbers in the for and against columns.

A 50 point win or loss in round 5 will impact your percentage much more than a 50 point win/loss will in round 20.

We jumped more than 10 percentage point off the back of a good win.
It also helps us that most of our games have been low scoring affairs from both sides.

But yep...it's better to have it moving in a positive direction


Of course but last year that game in PA for example would have been a 50+ point loss almost guaranteed. I think 5 rounds is a fair sample size. Nearly a quarter of the season.

So good progress so far and hoping for a 14 point win this week which if my maths is correct would move us above the dawks on the ladder.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Professer E on April 23, 2019, 05:09:36 pm
That list is deceptive... It's E.  Curnow with the goals in 2019, not C.  Curnow, which changes the distribution dramatically.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Lods on April 23, 2019, 05:19:12 pm
That list is deceptive... It's E.  Curnow with the goals in 2019, not C.  Curnow, which changes the distribution dramatically.

Yep
Sorry.
I've had to check myself a couple of times this year to make sure I distinguish between the C and the E rather than just putting down Curnow.
Fixed.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: kruddler on April 23, 2019, 06:08:11 pm
As I mentioned in another thread, at the start of the season the percentage can fluctuate dramatically due to the fact you're dealing with small numbers in the for and against columns.

A 50 point win or loss in round 5 will impact your percentage much more than a 50 point win/loss will in round 20.

We jumped more than 10 percentage point off the back of a good win.
It also helps us that most of our games have been low scoring affairs from both sides.

But yep...it's better to have it moving in a positive direction

That works both ways though Lods. ;)

Maybe we beat the hawks by 50 this week.  ;D
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Professer E on April 23, 2019, 09:21:17 pm
 :thanks Lods, this is a thread I follow as I think it is one of the statistical measures that actually means something.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Amers on April 23, 2019, 09:35:11 pm
:thanks Lods, this is a thread I follow as I think it is one of the statistical measures that actually means something.

Agree, thanks Lods!
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Lods on April 29, 2019, 11:40:37 pm
After Round 6

2017
Goals-63  Behinds-58 
Percentage  74.8 %   (For- 436, Against- 583)

2018

Goals-57  Behinds - 54
Percentage  66.3 % (For- 396, Against- 597)

2019
(Target 2018-Goals 192- Behinds 201- For 1353)
Goals- 66 Behinds -60
Percentage 93.6% (For 456, Against 487)

Goalkickers
(Target 2018- Charlie Curnow 34-20 -224)

2017
Casboult 11
Wright 10
Silvagni 6

2018
C. Curnow 10
Wright 9
Casboult 9
Garlett 5
McKay 5
Fisher- 5

2019
McKay 11
McGovern 10
E Curnow 6
Casboult 4
Fisher 4


A couple of better goalkicking efforts and we’re now moving well ahead of last years ‘points for’.
Defence is still over 100 points better than the same time last year.
Despite the loss our percentage actually improved fractionally over last week.

We’d have to look at the total goalkicking list to the same stage but we seem to have increased our spread of goalkickers. Last year most of our goals at this stage seemed to have come from just half a dozen players.

Numerology for this week …
In 2017 our three leading goalkickers had 11, 10 and 6 respectively.
in 2019 our three leading goalkickers had 11, 10 and 6 respectively.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Lods on May 09, 2019, 11:14:53 pm
After Round 7

2016

Goals 69 Behinds 73
Percentage 79.6 % (For 487, Against 612)

2017
Goals 75 Behinds 65
Percentage 80.6 % (For- 515, Against- 639)

2018
Goals-67 Behinds - 64
Percentage 64.5 % (For- 466, Against- 722)

2019

(Target 2018-Goals 192- Behinds 201- For 1353)
Goals 74 Behinds 74
Percentage 85.3% (For-518, Against 607)

Goalkickers
(Target 2018- Charlie Curnow 34-20 -224)

2017


Casboult 13
Wright 12
Weitering 6
Silvagni 6

2018

Casboult 11
Curnow 10
Wright 10
McKay 7
Garlett 5
Fisher- 5

2019
McKay 11
McGovern 10
E Curnow 7
Cripps 5

A bad loss can put a big dent in your percentage when your 'For and Against' is around the 500/600 mark. We lost over 8% last weekend. That’s still well ahead of our percentage at the same stage last season.

Our two goalkicking leaders didn’t add to their tally…it would have been extremely difficult for McGovern to advance.

It’s interesting the similarity between our 2017 and 2019 –‘Points For’ with only 3 points separating them.

Nothing much else of interest there. Our attack and defence both remain ahead of last year.

The more you look at it the poorer last season looks (particularly in defence) in comparison to the other years of the rebuild which have been pretty stable from a statistical point of view.

Numerology-Our Goals and Behind Tally for this season is the same 74.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Lods on May 14, 2019, 03:09:27 pm
After Round 8

2016

Goals 83 Behinds 82- (For 580 against 703)
Percentage 82.5 %

2017
Goals 85 Behinds 71- (For 581 against 724)
Percentage 80.3 %

2018
Goals-81 Behinds - 71
Percentage 69.6 % (For- 557, Against- 800)

2019
(Target 2018-Goals 192- Behinds 201- For 1353)
Goals 87 Behinds 83
Percentage 84.9% (For 605 Against 713)


Goalkickers
(Target 2018- Charlie Curnow 34-20 -224)

2017

Casboult 13
Wright 12
Silvagni 8
Weitering 7

2018

Curnow 13
Casboult 11
Wright 10
McKay 9
Fisher- 6
Garlett 5

2019

McGovern 13
McKay 13
E Curnow 7
Cripps 6

Dropped just a fraction in percentage.

On the positive side, in the last few weeks, we’ve now moved ahead of our ‘Points For’ for the previous 3 seasons.
The Points Against which was at one stage more than 100 points better than last year has suffered a bit, with injuries disrupting the backline, and has now slipped under the 100 point mark.

Numerology-our leading goalkicker to the end of Round 8 has had 13 goals for each of the last 3 years (this year we have 2 of them though ;))
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: jeza on May 14, 2019, 04:38:04 pm
Compared to the rest of the comp we've gone from 17th last year to 13th this year (for goals scored).

Not a massive improvement - but we'll take it.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: DJC on May 14, 2019, 09:46:05 pm
It’s good to see McGovern having scoreboard impact.  I think he is getting better with every game but the fact that he can score from limited possessions is a good sign.

It’s also a good sign that Cripps is impacting the scoreboard, we just need a couple of other mids to start scoring consistently.

I suspect that Charlie’s name will appear among our leading goal kickers in the next week or two and I’m looking forward to that  :)

This analysis makes so much more sense than the 4 from 40 tripe.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: flyboy77 on May 14, 2019, 10:12:12 pm
It’s good to see McGovern having scoreboard impact.  I think he is getting better with every game but the fact that he can score from limited possessions is a good sign.

It’s also a good sign that Cripps is impacting the scoreboard, we just need a couple of other mids to start scoring consistently.

I suspect that Charlie’s name will appear among our leading goal kickers in the next week or two and I’m looking forward to that  :)

This analysis makes so much more sense than the 4 from 40 tripe.

He's quality, no question

Harry and Charlie should give the guy space - and drag defenders away....one on one Guv beats anyone (noting I said the same about Charlie last year).
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: DJC on May 14, 2019, 10:35:53 pm
He's quality, no question

Harry and Charlie should give the guy space - and drag defenders away....one on one Guv beats anyone (noting I said the same about Charlie last year).

Our forward line is very much a work in progress and Charlie and the Gov missing game’s didn’t help.  It’s going to click before long and Lods’ goaltracker could blow a boiler  :)
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Lods on May 20, 2019, 03:30:47 pm
After Round 9

2016

Goals 89 Behinds 92-(For 626  against 816)
Percentage 76.7 %

2017
Goals 92 Behinds 80-(For 632 against 810)
Percentage 78 %

2018
Goals-88  Behinds - 79
Percentage  63.3 % (For- 607, Against- 959)

2019
(Target 2018-Goals 192- Behinds 201- For 1353)

Goals-94   Behinds- 86
Percentage 76.4% (For-650, Against- 851)


Goalkickers

((Target 2018- Charlie Curnow 34-20 -224)

2017

Casboult 15
Wright 12
Silvagni 8
Weitering 7

2018

Curnow 13
McKay 11
Casboult 11
Wright 10
Fisher- 7

2019

McKay 16-13-109
McGovern 14-4-88
E Curnow 8
Cripps 6
J Silvagni 6

The percentage took a bit of a beating this week. Down to 76.4 from a high of 93.6 after round 6.

McKay and McGovern now tracking ahead of the top 2 from previous seasons.

We didn’t get as badly knocked about in the points ‘For and Against’ comparison this week as we might have expected. That’s because in Round 9 last year Melbourne beat us 25-9-159 to 7-8-50.

Rather amazing that over the 4 years we track there is only a 7 goal difference in our ‘Points For’ For and apart from the ‘aberration last year about the same in our ‘Points Against.’
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Jack Burton on May 20, 2019, 08:42:45 pm
Begs the question, have we actually improved at all?
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: PaulP on May 20, 2019, 08:46:32 pm
Begs the question, have we actually improved at all?

Getting rid of 14 or so players every off season for 3 years has a cumulative effect. It's like resetting every time.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: laj on May 20, 2019, 09:36:21 pm
Begs the question, have we actually improved at all?

Not under Bolton. Side is better but he' getting nothing out of them.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: LP on May 21, 2019, 07:56:38 am
Getting rid of 14 or so players every off season for 3 years has a cumulative effect. It's like resetting every time.

Yes that is a reality fans won't accept, yet if you point out they feel negative in the same cumulative way they enter denial!

Gratification is instant, bitterness lingers!
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: PaulP on May 21, 2019, 09:19:33 am
Yes that is a reality fans won't accept, yet if you point out they feel negative in the same cumulative way they enter denial!

Gratification is instant, bitterness lingers!

Yes, it's a hard sell, the slow rebuild. Clearly media and certain supporters (and maybe others) are getting very fidgety.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Lods on May 21, 2019, 11:36:15 am
Yes, it's a hard sell, the slow rebuild. Clearly media and certain supporters (and maybe others) are getting very fidgety.

It's a spectrum thing.
At the start we had strong views 'for and against' the process and a centre who were prepared to see where it was heading.

You'll get folks who are naysayers from the start.
I'll put my hand up for that.
(Again I'll state....that's not anti Bolton, it's anti process)

You'll also get folks that will 'stick fat' until there is success or ashes.

The problem for a club occurs when you start to lose the centre…
I have a feeling that's what's happening now and the only way to prevent that is not through honorable losses but by winning games.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: LP on May 21, 2019, 11:42:32 am
The problem for a club occurs when you start to lose the centre…
I have a feeling that's what's happening now and the only way to prevent that is not through honorable losses but by winning games.

If we started to play ugly but potentially winning football again, the media would almost certainly revert to bashing us, and what would happen around memberships given that ugly losses are far more memorable to ugly wins!

"Well we won, but it was ugly.........!"

"That's the worst loss I've ever seen, crap skills an ugly game plan and never looked like winning..........my kids has quit the club!"
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Lods on May 21, 2019, 11:50:12 am
I'd take an ugly win or two over last weeks result.

Bugger the media....them pumping us up for this year's efforts disappeared in a cloud of dust as soon as we went off the rails.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: LP on May 21, 2019, 11:52:17 am
Bugger the media....them pumping us up for this year's efforts disappeared in a cloud of dust as soon as we went off the rails.

I agree, we are far too sensitive to it and respectful of the ambulance chasers, I feel many in our club Admin fear the media.

Dealing with them was the only positive MM brought to the club!
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: madbluboy on May 21, 2019, 11:53:49 am
I agree, we are far too sensitive to it and respectful of the ambulance chasers, I feel many in our club Admin fear the media.

Dealing with them was the only positive MM brought to the club!

If we didn't sack Malthouse we would be playing finals by now.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: laj on May 21, 2019, 11:56:10 am
If we didn't sack Malthouse we would be playing finals by now.

LOL!!!!!!
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: laj on May 21, 2019, 12:01:41 pm
Yes, it's a hard sell, the slow rebuild. Clearly media and certain supporters (and maybe others) are getting very fidgety.

Slow rebuild doesn't mean you are 4 from 41 4th year in. Slow rebuild means progressing up the ladder by the 4th year. Any idiot, even those of the highest order, knows that. Be unacceptable in a 2nd year, let alone a 4th. At some point you expect progress. where is it.

Wonder how many people thought we'd be 1-8 this year? Judd said last night he didn't see us at 1-8 at this stage. No one at the club, or anywhere else, expected Adelaide to be getting pick 1. Carey said last night he's just about to give up on Bolton, and he has been saying how talented our young list is. Said what we are producing is unacceptable.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Lods on May 29, 2019, 08:16:36 pm
After Round 10

2016

Goals 105 Behinds 100
Percentage 81 % (points for 730 - against 901)

2017

Goals 107 Behinds 86
Percentage 78.9 % (points for 728 against 923)

2018

Goals-93 Behinds - 94
Percentage 63.2 % (For- 652, Against- 1032)

2019
(Target 2018-Goals 192- Behinds 201- For 1353)
Goals-102 Behinds- 93 
Percentage 76.7% (For- 705, Against- 919)


Goalkickers
((Target 2018- Charlie Curnow 34-20 -224)

2017

Casboult 17
Wright 13
Silvagni 8
Gibbs 8

2018


Curnow 14
McKay 12
Casboult 11
Wright 11
Fisher- 7

2019
McKay 17.14
McGovern 14.4
Ed Curnow 8.6
C Curnow 6.4
P Cripps 6.4
Jack Silvagni 6.3

Nothing much changed this week…our percentage improved by 0.3% despite the loss.

Harry maintained his lead in the goalkicking and is on target for a 35-40 goal season, maybe more if we can get going in the second half of the year.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: DJC on May 30, 2019, 09:47:12 am
McGovern has been criticised for lack of impact but he is hitting the scoreboard.  If he can stay on the park, he could realistically pass Charlie’s 2018 total.

The spread of goalkickers is promising, particularly since our forward line coach has plenty of work to do to achieve anything like cohesion from our forwards.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Lods on June 06, 2019, 09:46:27 pm
Bolton’s gone, but games go on.
It will be interesting to see how the change impacts on our scoring ability.

After 11 Games

2016

Goals 121 Behinds 106-(For 832 - against 965)
Percentage 86.2 %

2017

Goals 117 Behinds 97-(For 799 - against 993)
Percentage 80.5 %

2018

Goals-102 Behinds - 101
Percentage 63.5 % (For- 713, Against- 1123)

2019

(Target 2018-Goals 192- Behinds 201- For 1353)
Goals-106 Behinds- 102 
Percentage 74.3 % (For- 738, Against- 993)


Goalkickers
((Target 2018- Charlie Curnow 34-20 -224)

2017

Casboult 18
Wright 15
Silvagni 9
Gibbs 9

2018

Curnow 16
M Wright 12
McKay 12
Casboult 11
Fisher- 7

2019
McKay 18-16-124
McGovern 14-4-88
E Curnow 8-6-54
C Curnow 8-5-53

Our ‘Points Against’ are exactly the same as after round 11 in 2017, but we’ve lost a goal a game in attack.
We’re still looking a lot better than last year percentage wise….but the ‘Points For’ are slipping back to be almost on a par with 2018
The Curnow brothers are only separated by one point in their personal scoring battle.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Lods on June 11, 2019, 04:37:22 pm
After 12 games

2016

Goals 133 Behinds 112-(For 910 against 1075)
Percentage 84.7 %

2017
Goals 129 Behinds 108-(For 882 against 1066)
Percentage 82.7 %

2018
Goals-108  Behinds - 111
Percentage  61.9 % (For- 759, Against- 1226)

2019
(Target 2018-Goals 192- Behinds 201- For 1353)
Goals 117 Behinds 114
Percentage 77.3% (For- 816 Against-1056)


Goalkickers

2017

Casboult 18
Wright 16
Silvagni 11
Gibbs 11

2018

Curnow 16
M Wright 14
McKay 12
Casboult 12


2019

McKay 18-18- 126
McGovern 15-4-94
C Curnow 11-6-72
Cripps 10-4-64
E Curnow 8-7-55

-After a bit of a blowout in a few recent games the defence has started to tighten up again.
-Cripps's 4 have moved him up the goalkicking list. It would be good to see some more of that in the second half of the year
-We had a bit of a boost in percentage, back up to 77.3% which has taken a bit of a battering recently down from around 93% at it's peak.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: DJC on June 12, 2019, 10:16:50 am
It’s good to see a couple of midfielders among our leading goalkickers.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: LP on June 12, 2019, 11:55:01 am
It’s good to see a couple of midfielders among our leading goalkickers.

In fairness, Ed's played just one game in the midfield for 2019 so far, and Cripps frequently rests forward! Not that it's a bad thing, but it's not the same as mids kicking goals.

My measure will be when midfielders start scoring by working forward as part of their midfield rotation, like when you watch Ablett Jnr charge forward out of the square to kick a goal or to rove a F50 marking contest, not when the mids resting in the forward pocket or playing as small lead up forwards!
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: DJC on June 12, 2019, 01:13:20 pm
In fairness, Ed's played just one game in the midfield for 2019 so far, and Cripps frequently rests forward! Not that it's a bad thing, but it's not the same as mids kicking goals.

My measure will be when midfielders start scoring by working forward as part of their midfield rotation, like when you watch Ablett Jnr charge forward out of the square to kick a goal or to rove a F50 marking contest, not when the mids resting in the forward pocket or playing as small lead up forwards!

Ed has played in the midfield during every game this season.  Admittedly he didn’t spend a lot of time there in the first couple games but his midfield minutes have ramped up since then.  Same with Gibbons.  I guess you could argue that half of Ed’s goals were scored when he was playing forward rather than working forward.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Lods on June 16, 2019, 08:14:34 pm
After 13 games

2016
Goals 142 Behinds 123-(For 975 against 1202)
Percentage 81.1 %

2017
Goals 137 Behinds 118-(For 940 against 1150 )
Percentage 81.7 %

2018
Goals-117  Behinds - 116
Percentage  62.7 % (For- 818, Against- 1305)

2019
(Target 2018-Goals 192- Behinds 201- For 1353)
Goals -132 Behinds- 124
Percentage 79% (For- 916 Against -1159)


Goalkickers

2017

Casboult 20
Wright 17
Silvagni 11
Gibbs 11

2018

Curnow 19
M Wright 14
McKay 12
Casboult 12

2019

((Target 2018- Charlie Curnow 34-20 -224)
McKay 19-18- 132
C .Curnow 18-7-115
McGovern 16-4- 100
Cripps 10-4-64

-Charlie goes BANG and moves to second on the goalkicking after a slow start to the year he’s every chance of beating last years total.

With the change of coach it might be interesting to chart the changes to the scoring from the end of Round 11 for the remainder of the year.
Will we be a higher scoring team?
Will our defence hold up?
How will the percentages compare?

The last two weeks results will mean that this initially will look good in comparison. Will that be sustained over the rest of the season or will those results come back to be closer together at the end of the year.

First 11 games
Totals
Goals-106 Behinds- 102 
Percentage 74.3 % (For- 738, Against- 993)
Average
Goals 9.6 Behinds 9.3
For 67 Against 90

Second 11 games (after 2 games)
Goals 26 behinds 22
Percentage 107.2% (For 178 Against 166)
Average
Goals 13 behinds 11
For 89 Against 83

* Those interested in a direct comparison-After 2 rounds of the season we'd scored 20-16 -136 to 27-23 -185...our percentage at the time 73.5%
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: laj on June 16, 2019, 08:20:08 pm
Looks like we might get 3 blokes nailing in the 30s. With a more attacking plan maybe even more, especially if we keep kicking 100 as losing scores..lol.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: jeza on June 16, 2019, 09:07:50 pm
After 13 games

2016
Goals 142 Behinds 123-(For 975 against 1202)
Percentage 81.1 %

2017
Goals 137 Behinds 118-(For 940 against 1150 )
Percentage 81.7 %

2018
Goals-117  Behinds - 116
Percentage  62.7 % (For- 818, Against- 1305)

2019
(Target 2018-Goals 192- Behinds 201- For 1353)
Goals -132 Behinds- 124
Percentage 79% (For- 916 Against -1159)


Goalkickers

2017

Casboult 20
Wright 17
Silvagni 11
Gibbs 11

2018

Curnow 19
M Wright 14
McKay 12
Casboult 12

2019

((Target 2018- Charlie Curnow 34-20 -224)
McKay 19-18- 132
C .Curnow 18-7-115
McGovern 16-4- 100
Cripps 10-4-64

-Charlie goes BANG and moves to second on the goalkicking after a slow start to the year he’s every chance of beating last years total.

With the change of coach it might be interesting to chart the changes to the scoring from the end of Round 11 for the remainder of the year.
Will we be a higher scoring team?
Will our defence hold up?
How will the percentages compare?

The last two weeks results will mean that this initially will look good in comparison. Will that be sustained over the rest of the season or will those results come back to be closer together at the end of the year.

First 11 games
Totals
Goals-106 Behinds- 102 
Percentage 74.3 % (For- 738, Against- 993)
Average
Goals 9.6 Behinds 9.3
For 67 Against 90

Second 11 games (after 2 games)
Goals 26 behinds 22
Percentage 107.2% (For 178 Against 166)
Average
Goals 13 behinds 11
For 89 Against 83

* Those interested in a direct comparison-After 2 rounds of the season we'd scored 20-16 -136 to 27-23 -185...our percentage at the time 73.5%

Percentage decent increase from 63% to 79% - despite the BB debacle. 79 is still not great though obviously.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Lods on July 03, 2019, 03:28:41 pm
After 14 games

2016


Goals 148 Behinds 132-(For 1020 Against 1259)
Percentage 81.0 %

2017

Goals 149 Behinds 123-( For 1017  Against 1239 )
Percentage 82.1 %

2018

Goals-127  Behinds - 125  (For- 887 , Against- 1395)
Percentage  63.6 %

2019

Goals-143 Behinds-137 (For 995, Against 1234)
Percentage 80.6%


Goalkickers

2017
Casboult 20
Wright 17
Silvagni 11
Gibbs 11

2018
Curnow 19
M Wright 14
McKay 12
Casboult 12

2019

((Target 2018- Charlie Curnow 34-20 -224)
McKay 19-18- 132
C .Curnow 18-8-116
McGovern 17-5-107
Cripps 10-4-64

The defence has now had less points scored against it for the same stage of the season since Bolton took over.

Hardly any movement on the goalkicking table with three of the four leaders out or injured early and possibly missing again this week.

Teague watch

First 11 games
Totals
Goals-106 Behinds- 102 
Percentage 74.3 % (For- 738, Against- 993)
Average
Goals 9.6 Behinds 9.3
For 67 Against 90

Second 11 games (after 3 games)
Totals
Goals 37 behinds 35 v 35 Goals -31 Behinds
Percentage 106.6 % (For 257, Against 241)
Average
Goals 12.3 behinds 11.7
For 86 Against 80
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Lods on July 11, 2019, 10:38:20 am
After 15 games

2016

Goals 155 Behinds 137-(For-1067  Against 1366)
Percentage 78.1%

2017(

Goals 161 Behinds 133-(For-1099  Against 1329 )
Percentage 82.7 %

2018

Goals-134  Behinds - 138  (For- 942 , Against- 1515)
Percentage  62.2 %

2019
(Target 2018-Goals 192- Behinds 201- For 1353)
Goals-158 Behinds- 147 (For-1095, Against- 1339)
Percentage-81.8%

Goalkickers
((Target 2018- Charlie Curnow 34-20 -224)

2017

Casboult 23
Wright 20
Silvagni 15
Gibbs 13

2018


Curnow 26
M Wright 14
McKay 12
Casboult 12

2019

McKay 19-18-132
C Curnow 18-8 -116
Mc Govern 17-7-109
Silvagni 10 -6- 66
Cripps 10 -4 -64

Not a lot of movement this week.
2018 sticks out as a very poor year but not a lot of statistical change between the other years. The points for and against and percentage are pretty stable for the other years.
The goalkicking table has stalled a bit with our top 2 guys out of action and McGovern struggling.
The significant change is the scoring increase since Teague took over where we’re up about 4 goals per game.


Teague watch

First 11 games
Totals
Goals-106 Behinds- 102 
Percentage 74.3 % (For- 738, Against- 993)
Average
Goals 9.6 Behinds 9.3
For 67 Against 90

Second 11 games (after 4 games)

Totals
Goals 52 behinds 45 v 50 Goals -46 Behinds
Percentage 103.2 % (For 357, Against 346)
Average
Goals 13 behinds 11.3
For 89 Against 87
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Thryleon on July 11, 2019, 11:38:54 am
^^

Its worth mentioning, that Brisbane aside, we are yet to face a serious side when it comes to scoring.  Melbourne have been notoriously bad this season at converting forward entries into Goals which is the biggest concern from last weekends game.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: madbluboy on July 11, 2019, 11:42:21 am
^^

Its worth mentioning, that Brisbane aside, we are yet to face a serious side when it comes to scoring.  Melbourne have been notoriously bad this season at converting forward entries into Goals which is the biggest concern from last weekends game.

Haven't we played just about everyone?
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: PaulP on July 11, 2019, 11:43:11 am
Haven't we played just about everyone?

He means under Teague.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: jeza on July 11, 2019, 02:01:18 pm
A lot of good judges put a lot of stock in percentage for judging a developing team. So if you just look at that:

2016
Percentage 78.1%

2017
Percentage 82.7 %

2018
Percentage  62.2 %

2019
BOLTON
Percentage 74.3 %

TEAGUE
Percentage 103.2 %

That is stark comparison and sums up just how good Teague has been (albeit limited data set). Thanks for keeping this tally going Lods. It is the most tangible illustration of where we are at in my opinion.

I just hope Teague can keep this going!
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Lods on July 11, 2019, 05:55:14 pm
Thanks jeza.

Teague's percentage has been coming down a point or two each week since the Brisbane game.
A nice 4 or 5 goal win on the weekend would give it a bit of a boost.

It would be a very good achievement if he can keep it above the 100% because that would no doubt mean we would have won a few more games by season's end. (unless we lost every game by a point  ;) )

The fact that we've increased our overall percentage from 74.3% to 81.8% since the change is a positive.
We've been able to increase scoring by 20 odd points a game but have lost nothing in terms of points scored against us.

If we could scrub first quarter efforts it would look even more impressive.

Still it is only four games, so it will be interesting to compare the figures over the whole season.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: kruddler on July 11, 2019, 07:25:36 pm
I think i pointed our earlier this season that our % under Bolton was the highest it had been since Mick was coach.

We were certainly trending in the right direction and a few too many losses including a couple of beltings damaged his chances beyond repair. But take away those last 6 or so weeks and we were seeing basically the same things we are seeing under Teague now....maybe with a bit more luck on our side.

If Teague has a 10 goal loss in the next few games, then he's probably on a par with what Bolton was doing. Big difference, close wins instead of close losses.

Its a cut throat world the footy world.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Thryleon on July 11, 2019, 07:27:44 pm
How does Teagues percentage look with the GWS game included?

How would Bolton's look without said match?

Percentage is a very flaky indicator.   One bad game can make it look really bad if you aren't winning well most weeks.

Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Lods on July 11, 2019, 08:56:59 pm
At the start of the season when you're dealing with small numbers percentages can fluctuate wildly from week to week.
After only 4 games it's the same with Teague's numbers.

Say we win the game this week 100 points to 60 our percentage under Teague will be around 113%
A forty point win will change his percentage by nearly 10 percentage points.

On the other hand if we lose by 60 points to 100 our percentage under Teague will be around 93%
A forty point loss will change the percentage by around 10 percentage points the other way.
Win or lose by 40 points can make a 20point difference in your percentage with small numbers.

Contrast that with a 40 point loss to Essendon in Rd 11 where our percentage went from76.7 to 74.3
The same 40 point loss only resulted in a less than 3% change in percentage.

With bigger 'For and Against' totals (around 1100 to 1300) the margins and big wins and losses don't impact to the same extent as the do when you're dealing with numbers around the 350 to 400 mark

So while we can't put a lot of store in Teague's percentage in isolation at present it will be more comparable after he's had the same 11 games that Bolton had.
It is trending in the right direction at the moment and what can't be denied is that under him it has improved from 74.3% to 81.8%
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: jeza on July 11, 2019, 10:38:04 pm
As I said - limited data set under Teague.

But to take the same group of players that Bolton had and produce this for even 4 weeks is certainly a credit to him.

As everyone quite rightly points out it could all fall apart this week - but so far so good.

Smashing the Swans would be handy!
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Lods on July 18, 2019, 10:37:38 pm
After 16 games

2016

Goals 166 Behinds 146-(For 1142 - Against- 1448)
Percentage 78.9%

2017

Goals 170 Behinds 141- (For 1161- against- 1411)
Percentage 82.3 %

2018

Goals-141  Behinds - 148  (For- 994 , Against- 1631)
Percentage  60.9%

2019
(Target 2018-Goals 192- Behinds 201- For 1353)
Goals-167 Behinds- 162 (For-1164, Against- 1401)
Percentage-83.1%


Goalkickers
((Target 2018- Charlie Curnow 34-20 -224)

2017
Casboult 24
Wright 23
Silvagni 15
Gibbs 14
Curnow 12

2018

Curnow 27
M Wright 14
McKay 12
Casboult 12

2019

Harry McKay 20-21-141
Charli Curnow 18-8-116
Mitch McGovern 17-7-109
Jack Silvagni 11-8-74
Michael Gibbons 10-10-70
Patrick Cripps 10-6-66
Levi Casboult 10-6-66

A few minor changes but nothing too dramatic….Picked up a small percentage gain
Our Points For and Points Against, as well as Percentage, are now the best they’ve been to this point of the season since the rebuild began.

Teague watch

First 11 games
Totals
Goals-106 Behinds- 102 
Percentage 74.3 % (For- 738, Against- 993)
Average
Goals 9.6 Behinds 9.3
For 67 Against 90

Second 11 games (after 5 games)
Totals
Goals 61 behinds 60 v 58 Goals -60 Behinds
Percentage 104.4 % (For 426, Against 408)
Average
Goals 12.2 behinds 12
For 85.2 Against 81.6
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Lods on July 24, 2019, 11:52:27 pm
After 17 games

2016

Goals 176 Behinds 154-(For 1210- Against- 1522)
Percentage 79.5%

2017

Goals 181 Behinds 157-(For 1243- Against- 1523)
Percentage 81.6%

2018

Goals-148  Behinds - 158  (For- 1046 , Against- 1755)
Percentage  59.6 %

2019
(Target 2018-Goals 192- Behinds 201- For 1353)
Goals- 182 Behinds-171 (For-1263, Against 1476)
Percentage-85.6%


Goalkickers
(Target 2018- Charlie Curnow 34-20 -224)

2017

Casboult 25
Wright 25
Silvagni 15
Gibbs 14
Curnow 14

2018

Curnow 28
M Wright 15
McKay 12
Casboult 12

2019
McKay 22-23-155
Curnow 18-8-116
McGovern 17-7-109
Gibbons 11-10-76
Silvagni 11-9-75
Casboult 11-7-73
Cripps 11-6-72

After 17 games we’re within 10 goals of last year’s 22 game total.
Percentage wise we continue the upward trend under Teague... up more than 10% since round 11.
It’s a bit of a dubious comparison because we’ve played different sides and there have been some significant changes but…. had we started the season with the results of the last six weeks we would have been sitting sixth, ahead of current top eight clubs - West Coast Richmond, Brisbane, Essendon and Adelaide.

A ladder conducted over the last six weeks sees us as the 5th most successful club during that period


Teague watch


First 11 games
Totals
Goals-106 Behinds- 102 
Percentage 74.3 % (For- 738, Against- 993)
Average
Goals 9.6 Behinds 9.3
For 67 Against 90

Second 11 games (after 6 games)

Totals
Goals -76 Behinds 69 v 69 Goals -69 Behinds
Percentage 108.7 % (For 525, Against 483)
Average
Goals 12.6 behinds 11.5
For 87.5 Against 80.5
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: jeza on July 25, 2019, 04:03:10 pm
Looking even better after last weekend.

2016
Percentage 79.5%

2017
Percentage 81.6%

2018
Percentage  59.6 %

2019
BB: Percentage 74.3 %
Teague: Percentage 108.7 %


Massive credit to Teague - 34% increase in percentage.
Are we equal top 3 over the past 6 weeks?
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: dodge on July 25, 2019, 04:12:51 pm
Look forward to this post every week, Lods.  Thanks for your work.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Lods on July 25, 2019, 04:13:26 pm
Massive credit to Teague - 34% increase in percentage.
Are we equal top 3 over the past 6 weeks?

Yep
Equal third-5th on percentage

Brisbane 5-1 (137.65%)
Essendon 5-1 (105.46%)
West Coast 4-2 (122.25%)
Richmond 4-2 (119.44%)
Carlton 4-2 (108.70%)
Bulldogs 4-2 (103.48%)
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: kruddler on July 25, 2019, 06:48:29 pm
Yep
Equal third-5th on percentage

Brisbane 5-1 (137.65%)
Essendon 5-1 (105.46%)
West Coast 4-2 (122.25%)
Richmond 4-2 (119.44%)
Carlton 4-2 (108.70%)
Bulldogs 4-2 (103.48%)

Fun fact...
Someone did a '1 goal margin result reversal' ladder recently.
(That is, take all the games you lost by a goal and under, and call that a win....and take all the games you won by a goal and under and call that a loss.)
And we snuck in the 8!

I was banging on about how unlucky we were in the early stages of 2019 and a couple of things go our way (instead of against) and we are in a completely different situation. Thats proof.

If we didn't have bad luck, we'd have no luck at all!

Also worth pointing out that the ladder above didn't take into account how we were robbed against the pies with free kicks, especially in the last 5 minutes. Or how we simply couldn't kick straight against the swans, and they couldn't miss....
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Thryleon on July 25, 2019, 08:48:19 pm
Some perspective.

We've played gold coast (18th), Melbourne (17th), sydney (15th), freo (11th), brisbane (2nd) and the bulldogs (12th).

I'm glad we are doing better, but so we should be.

Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: DJC on July 25, 2019, 09:01:56 pm
Look forward to this post every week, Lods.  Thanks for your work.

X2
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Lods on July 28, 2019, 10:39:31 pm
After 7 games under Teague we're still fifth on the 'last seven games' form ladder but the percentage is now up to 112.7%
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Lods on July 30, 2019, 07:58:02 pm
After 18 games

2016


Goals 183 Behinds 167-(For 1265 against- 1596)
Percentage 79.3%

2017

Goals 189 Behinds 167-(For 1301  against- 1646)
Percentage 79%

2018

Goals-160  Behinds - 165  (For- 1125 , Against- 1799)
Percentage  62.5%

2019
(Target 2018-Goals 192- Behinds 201- For 1353)

Goals-195  Behinds-180 (For-1350, Against-1536)
Percentage 87.9%


Goalkickers
(Target 2018- Charlie Curnow 34-20 -224)

2017
Casboult 28
Wright 26
Silvagni 16
Curnow 15
Gibbs 14

2018

Curnow 29
M Wright 16
McKay 13
Casboult 12

2019
McKay  23-24 162
C Curnow  18-8- 116
McGovern  17-7-109
Casboult  14 -8-92
Gibbons  12-11- 83
Silvagni  12-9-81
Cripps  12-6-78

We’ve made it…after 18 rounds we’ve surpassed our 2018 goal total. We’re now three ahead with four game still to go.
Since Teague took over our average points per game is 87.4. We were pretty much right on average with 87 last weekend.

Teague watch

First 11 games
Totals
Goals-106 Behinds- 102 
Percentage 74.3 % (For- 738, Against- 993)
Average
Goals 9.6 Behinds 9.3
For 67 Against 90

Second 11 games (after 7 games)
Totals
Carlton Goals -89 Behinds 78 v Opposition 78 Goals -75 Behinds
Percentage 112.7 % (For 612, Against 543)
Average
Goals 12.7 behinds 11.1
For 87.4 Against 77.6
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Robblues on July 31, 2019, 08:21:49 am
Great Work Lods , interesting thing is with our 3 top goal scorers only Harry has contributed ( though meagher) and we are winning . A new crop of goal kickers have emerged led by Kennedy
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Lods on August 06, 2019, 08:46:31 pm
After 19 Games

2016


Goals 190 Behinds 176-(For 1316   against- 1718)
Percentage 76.6%

2017


Goals 200 Behinds 177-(For 1377  against- 1730)
Percentage 79.6%

2018


Goals-167  Behinds - 169 (For- 1171  Against- 1950)
Percentage  60.1%

2019

(Target 2018-Goals 192- Behinds 201- For 1353)
Goals -206  Behinds- 189 (For 1425 Against 1635)
Percentage 87.16%

Goalkickers
(Target 2018- Charlie Curnow 34-20 -224)

2017
Casboult 29
Wright 29
Silvagni 17
Curnow 16
Gibbs 15

2018
Curnow 30
M Wright 18
McKay 16
Casboult 12

2019
McKay 24-26-170
Curnow 18-8-116
McGovern 17-7-109
Gibbons 15-12-102
Casboult  14-10-94

Our 19 game goal total is now better than any 22 game goal season tally since the rebuild began.
A 24 point loss has caused a 5% decline in Teague’s percentage.

Teague watch

First 11 games
Totals
Goals-106 Behinds- 102 
Percentage 74.3 % (For- 738, Against- 993)
Average
Goals 9.6 Behinds 9.3
For 67 Against 90

Second 11 games (after 8 games)
Totals
Carlton Goals -100 Behinds 87 v Opposition 93 Goals -84 Behinds
Percentage 107.0% (For 687, Against 642)
Average
Goals 12.5 behinds 10.9
For 85.9 Against 80.3
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Lods on August 15, 2019, 12:03:29 pm
After 20 Games

2016

Goals 203 Behinds 193-(For 1411  against- 1817)
Percentage 77.7%

2017

Goals 212 Behinds 188-(For 1460  Against- 1830)
Percentage 79.8%

2018

Goals-177  Behinds - 181 (For- 1243  Against- 2051)
Percentage  60.6%
2019
(Target 2018-Goals 192- Behinds 201- For 1353)-beaten
Goals 212 Behinds 198 (For 1470 Against 1708)
Percentage 86.1%

Goalkickers
(Target 2018- Charlie Curnow 34-20 -224)

2017
Casboult 31
Wright 29
Silvagni 19
Curnow 17
Gibbs 16

2018
Curnow 32
M Wright 20
McKay 18
Casboult 12
Cripps 11

2019
McKay 24-26-170
McGovern 19-9-123
C Curnow 18-8- 116
Gibbons 16-13- 109
Casboult 15-11-101

It looks like none of our forwards will match Curnow's  goalkicking total of 2018 but we've had a few disruptions with form and injuries. We've also probably had a better spread of goalkickers.

Weather conditions probably affected our scoring and a low score even with a reasonable margin meant that our percentage dropped a bit. It was probably more of a dent in the Teague Watch section with another 4.6% drop.

Not a lot of other movement....but we're heading for a much better scoring effort than last years when the final tally is done


Teague watch

First 11 games
Totals
Goals-106 Behinds- 102 
Percentage 74.3 % (For- 738, Against- 993)
Average
Goals 9.6 Behinds 9.3
For 67 Against 90

Second 11 games (after 9 games)
Totals
Carlton Goals -106 Behinds 96 v Opposition 104 Goals -91 Behinds
Percentage 102.4%  (For 732, Against 715)
Average
Goals 11.8 behinds 10.7
For 81.3 Against 79.4
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Lods on August 21, 2019, 10:55:51 am
After 21 Games

2016

Goals 214 Behinds 205-(For1489 against- 1875)
Percentage 79.4%

2017

Goals 224 Behinds 193-(For 1537 against- 1900)
Percentage 80.9%

2018

Goals-184  Behinds - 188 (For- 1292  Against- 2117)
Percentage  61.0%

2019
(Target 2018-Goals 192- Behinds 201- For 1353)-beaten
Goals 223 Behinds 210 (For-1548 Against-1776)
Percentage 87.2%


Goalkickers


2017

Casboult 33
Wright 30
Silvagni 19
Curnow 18
Gibbs 17

2018
Curnow 34
M Wright 21 
McKay 18
Casboult 12
Cripps 11

2019
(Target 2018- Charlie Curnow 34-20 -224)

McKay  25-29-179
McGovern  22-10 -142
C.Curnow 18-8-116
Gibbons 16-14-110
Casboult 15-11-101
Silvagni 13-10-88

Little movement again this week.
Just noticed the number of behinds Harry’s kicked this year. Had he been a little more accurate he’d have been well up with Curnow’s total from last year.
The much maligned McGovern could even snatch the goalkicking lead with a good game this week.

With one game to go we can now get a clearer picture of the comparison between the first half of the season and the second…
Two goals better in attack and a goal better in defence.
Our percentage has risen nearly 13% since the midpoint of the season and the percentage comparison between the first and second half is around 30%
We should finish the season with around 100+ point better second half of the year in terms of our ‘Points For.’

Teague watch

First 11 games
Totals
Goals-106 Behinds- 102 
Percentage 74.3 % (For- 738, Against- 993)
Average
Goals 9.6 Behinds 9.3
For 67 Against 90

Second 11 games (after 10 games)
Totals
Carlton Goals -117 Behinds 108 v Opposition 114 Goals -99 Behinds
Percentage 103.4%  (For 810, Against 783)
Average
Goals 11.7 behinds 10.8
For 81.0 Against 78.3
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: DJC on August 23, 2019, 08:54:47 am
Apart from scoring more goals, it’s good to see that we have ten players who have kicked ten goals or more.  We haven’t had that since 2014 when 12 players kicked 206 goals between them (276 goals in total).

I wonder how much of that is down to talent and how much to the way the game is played now ????
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: flyboy77 on August 23, 2019, 10:38:43 am
Are you able to add the number of games (in the season) they've played.

That is, we know that all 3 of our key forwards have not played 22 games thus far this season.

Harry's played 19, Charlie 11, Mitch 15 etc.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: tonyo on August 23, 2019, 10:58:06 am
Are you able to add the number of games (in the season) they've played.

That is, we know that all 3 of our key forwards have not played 22 games thus far this season.

Harry's played 19, Charlie 11, Mitch 15 etc.

Harry could have and should have kicked 40+ this year,  Intensive goal kicking practice over the summer, methinks.

Hopefully it's not the sore groin that's doing it (although his snap in the last quarter would seem to belie that).
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: flyboy77 on August 23, 2019, 11:08:05 am
Harry could have and should have kicked 40+ this year,  Intensive goal kicking practice over the summer, methinks.

Hopefully it's not the sore groin that's doing it (although his snap in the last quarter would seem to belie that).

They reckon it's a lingering injury from when he was out mid season....
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Lods on August 23, 2019, 11:38:31 am
Are you able to add the number of games (in the season) they've played.

That is, we know that all 3 of our key forwards have not played 22 games thus far this season.

Harry's played 19, Charlie 11, Mitch 15 etc.

McKay 25 ( 19 Games) Ave 1.3
McGovern 22 ( 15 Games) Ave 1.5
C. Curnow 18 ( 11 Games) Ave 1.6
Gibbons 16 (21 Games) Ave  0.8
Casboult 15 ( 19 Games….a few as a defender) Ave 0.8
Silvagni 13 (16 Games) Ave 0.8


Injuries and form have had a significant affect on our goalkickers.

More than half of Curnow's goals came in his last two games. (3 v Brisbane, 7 v Bulldogs)
Harry's inaccuracy has stopped him from probably being closer to two goals a game...he also seems to be playing a fair bit up around the wing in recent weeks
Cas has been all over the field...attack, defence and spells in the ruck.
Gov hasn't been fit ,even though he's been playing (injuries and fitness issues).
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: flyboy77 on August 23, 2019, 12:00:14 pm
Beautiful!
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: tonyo on August 23, 2019, 12:08:16 pm
McKay 25 ( 19 Games) Ave 1.3
McGovern 22 ( 15 Games) Ave 1.5
C. Curnow 18 ( 11 Games) Ave 1.6
Gibbons 16 (21 Games) Ave  0.8
Casboult 15 ( 19 Games….a few as a defender) Ave 0.8
Silvagni 13 (16 Games) Ave 0.8


Injuries and form have had a significant affect on our goalkickers.

More than half of Curnow's goals came in his last two games. (3 v Brisbane, 7 v Bulldogs)
Harry's inaccuracy has stopped him from probably being closer to two goals a game...he also seems to be playing a fair bit up around the wing in recent weeks
Cas has been all over the field...attack, defence and spells in the ruck.
Gov hasn't been fit ,even though he's been playing (injuries and fitness issues).

Imagine next year if we get 50 from Charlie and Harry, and 30 from McGovern.  Just imagine.....
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Tragic on August 23, 2019, 12:12:29 pm
Imagine next year if we get 50 from Charlie and Harry, and 30 from McGovern.  Just imagine.....

lot's of people rate Mckay & Charlie as our exciting tall forwards and rarely mention Gov in the conversation.  Fit and firing he's as good or better, or bloody close, I reckon.  not sure how we play all 3 talls all the time, but DT will have a plan for that.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: flyboy77 on August 23, 2019, 12:40:39 pm
lot's of people rate Mckay & Charlie as our exciting tall forwards and rarely mention Gov in the conversation.  Fit and firing he's as good or better, or bloody close, I reckon.  not sure how we play all 3 talls all the time, but DT will have a plan for that.

Guv also appears to have a lot of ready made footy smarts (the Simmo all but a goal marking attempt aside)!

He's just as likely as the other two to kick 50 a year.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Thryleon on August 23, 2019, 02:59:17 pm
Guv also appears to have a lot of ready made footy smarts (the Simmo all but a goal marking attempt aside)!

He's just as likely as the other two to kick 50 a year.

Had he not attempted that, it would likely have been spoiled.  If he hadnt attempted the mark, it would have been a free kick against by the rules.



Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: kruddler on August 23, 2019, 04:14:01 pm
Had he not attempted that, it would likely have been spoiled.  If he hadnt attempted the free kick, it would have been a free kick against.

Agree, to a point.

He could've held his ground long before he got to the ball, shepharding/blocking his opponents run and jump at the ball. Instead he lured his opponent there and THEN had no option as described.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Thryleon on August 23, 2019, 04:40:45 pm
^^

Maybe.

Its all fluid.  Had Simmos shot been off target the situation changes again.
Title: Re: Goaltracker 2019
Post by: Lods on August 27, 2019, 10:37:50 pm
After 22 Games


2016


Goals 224 Behinds 224- (For  1568 against- 1978)
Percentage 79.3%

2017


Goals 232 Behinds 202-(For 1594 against- 2038)
Percentage 78.2%

2018

Goals-192  Behinds - 201 (For- 1353  Against- 2282)
Percentage  59.3%

2019
(Target 2018-Goals 192- Behinds 201- For 1353)-beaten
Goals 231 Behinds 223 (For 1609  Against 1905)
Percentage 84.5%

Goalkickers
(Target 2018- Charlie Curnow 34-20 -224)

2017

Casboult 34
Wright 30
Curnow 20
Silvagni 19
Gibbs 17

2018

Curnow 34
M Wright 21
McKay 21
Casboult 12
Cripps 11

2019
(Target 2018- Charlie Curnow 34-20 -224)

McKay 26-30-186- Games (20) Av 1.3
McGovern 22-11-143 (G-16) Av 1.4
C.Curnow 18-8-116 (G-11) Av 1.6
Gibbons 16-14-110 (G-21) Av 0.8
Casboult 15-11-101 (G-20) Av 0.8
Silvagni 13-11-89 (G-17) Av 0.8
Cripps 13-6-84 (G-20) Av 0.7
Murphy 12-3-75 (G-19) Av 0.6
Kennedy 11-5-71 (G-10) Av  1.1
E.Curnow 9-8-62 (G-22) Av 0.4
Fisher 9-7-61 (G 21) Av 0.4

We finished the season with our highest ‘Points For’ total since the rebuild began, although we didn’t quite match (by one goal) our 2017 goal tally.

Our ‘Points Against’ was also better (lower) than any total since the rebuild began…in fact it was our best since 2011

Our percentage was also the best since the rebuild began.

Clearly, we still have a major problem with scoring…but Brisbane, the league’s leading scorers with 2004 points, is probably the lowest total in a number of years. Look back over the previous ten years and we see a declining trend in scoring  from the top performing sides. Ratten’s Carlton sides were well in advance of that total and they wouldn’t have been the best in the league at that time.

Injuries and form slumps meant no player was able to match Charlie Curnow’s goalkicking tally of last season. Given a good run next year, all of McKay, McGovern and Curnow are capable of going past that mark….and hopefully one or even two up around the 40-50 range.

Teague Watch- the heavy loss was probably due, but it did cause quite a ripple in the final assessment.
Teague’s sides have maintained a percentage above 100% since he took control but in the final game that dropped back to 95%...still well in advance of the first 11 games. We scored more goals and had less scored against us in the second half of the year.
A better second half and hopefully a good foundation to build on in 2020.
 
Teague watch

First 11 games

Totals
Goals-106 Behinds- 102 
Percentage 74.3 % (For- 738, Against- 993)
Average
Goals 9.6 Behinds 9.3
For 67 Against 90

Second 11 games

Totals
Carlton Goals -125 Behinds 121 v Opposition 133 Goals -114 Behinds
Percentage 95.5%  (For 871, Against 912)
Average
Goals 11.4 Behinds 11
For 79  Against 83