Carlton Supporters Club

The difference is that we have HOPE FOR a future now.   Back then we had stuff all under 21 talent and our mature agers weren't giving us much.

Even if we recruit poorly from here in about 50 games we should improve significantly simply with what we have.

When mick was fired that wasn't the case.

We have nothing until we have something.

We had HOPE when we recruited Watson, Mitchell and McCarthy that our KP woes were over for the next decade with all of that young tall talent on our list. 

We SHOULD improve.
We SHOULD'VE improved under 2 previous multi-premiership coaches we had on our list.
etc

I agree this time looks brighter than previously, but still....we've been fooled before.

Nope.  4 years ago we had aging stars.

Now we have cripps, fisher, Docherty and curnowfidis.  Dow, Marchbank, Weitering and SPS.

All look like ten year players.  We have a future.   Three years ago, we had Chris Judd, Bryce Gibbs,  Marc Murphy and Kreuzer who we couldn't get on the Park.

We are in a much better position without the wishful thinking.

It doesn't mean success will come,  but we have built a base that can be built on now.

4 years ago we had the following players in the 21-24 age group on the senior list.

Gibbs
Yarran
Garlett
Robinson
Henderson
Tuohy
Bell
Lucas
Everett
Ellard
Watson
McInness
and
Kreuzer
Casboult
E. Curnow

So 4 years ago, 3 of our 15 (next generation) players are left, the rest are no longer on the list.

Of course i could expand that further to include 18-20yo's as well, you know the future of the club...
Menzel
Buckley
Holman
Bootsma
Temay
Giles
and
Graham
Docherty
Cripps

So we only have 6 out of 24 players from our 'future' still on our list.
18 out of 24 players aged 18-24, are NO LONGER on our list.

Tell me again why our 'aging' list was the problem?

We can't get too caught up with our kids being locked in as we can see from above, we've been very wrong before. Doesn't have to be just about talent either.
Players want out.
Players go off the rails.
Players get injuries.
Players get booted out.

@LODS I wanted a broom through the place years ago.

Two quick points.

1. You might want to check your 21-24 age group from 4 years ago.  Some of these blokes (Kreuzer and Gibbs) have somehow managed to age 5 years in 4.  Casboult was 24 already and an unproven commodity.

I just checked even Lachlan Henderson Mitch Robinson and Jeff Garlett turn 29 this year!! That 21-24 age group was full of middle agers!

2. That's a serious reach.  Most of our kids have shown more positives about their attitude and ability than we had then, and for the first time since Fevola we've drafted key forwards that can hit the scoreboard multiple times in a game consistently and they aren't even in your subjective 21-24 year age group!

Think back to our 2013 9th place finish.  We had stuff all key defenders,  stuff all key forwards and our midfield batted as deep then as it does today except we have genuine kids playing in all these roles rather than relative question marks.

I don't know how well these guys will all go, but I've seen enough to suggest the future is absolutely looking better than it did, even if it's tough going right now and only a pessimist would look at our list and see no future.   That doesn't mean what you say can't come out to pass but there's enough substance to work with that says we should be ok.

Think about it, I'm not a blind optimist, I'm a realist.
Even macreadie has shown more than Matthew Watson had back then!

@LODS I wanted a broom through the place years ago. 

Edited underlined.  Our promise today lies largely IMHO in a bunch of sub 22 year olds.  The opposite was true back then.

Squad for 2014

Statistics are correct as of end of 2013 season. Flags represent the state of origin, i.e. the state in which the player played his Under-18s football.

I got the list of ages from here...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Carlton_Football_Club_season
Has a quote in regards to the squad...I saw no reason to check that info, and based on that time-frame, i think it eliminates your 'anomalies' mentioned.

As for the relative performance of each list, i have no doubt that our current crop is better.
However, considering, 80% of that list is no longer at the club, its not hard to come to that conclusion.
So yes, they are better, doesn't mean they are 'good enough' to get us into finals, and win one...or 3-4.

Again, what if Cripps decides to do a gibbs and go home?
What if Doc never recovers from his knee?
What if McKay decides to leave and play with his brother?
What if Curnow does a knee and is never the same again?
What if Kennedy never gets over his ankle?
What if SPS and Williamson get into some off-field trouble and get sent packing?

Its not a huge stretch is it?

I can't agree.

I think you're being overly negative in much the same way flyboy was being overly positive with respect to this season.

Even our worst recruits in jack Silvagni and Cameron polson look better than Watson.

Then you start putting Harry McKay next to McCarthy,  Charlie Curnow next to Menzel,  polson next to Temay,  Patrick Kerr next to Luke Mitchell,  Weitering next to Mitchell,  SPS next to Clement Smith, and realise that our youngsters already look better.

that's before you think of Dow and o brien.

See I'm not giving you success or a premiership.   I'm arguing that we have a better chance of having an afl capable competitive team which we can then build on in the future without languishing on the bottom of the ladder like we have over the last three years.

See I'm not giving you success or a premiership.   I'm arguing that we have a better chance of having an afl capable competitive team which we can then build on in the future without languishing on the bottom of the ladder like we have over the last three years.

This is where I struggle a bit
Aren't we only languishing on the bottom because we chose to rebuild.
In the four of the six years prior to that we we played finals...an AFL competitive team.
You could guess our side was on the decline...but who knows what our trading and drafting strategy would have been with a less dramatic list management.
Top-ups and changes could just as easily have left us competitive.

I agree we have a better chance....not saying otherwise.

However, thats with hindsight knowing how the old team ended up.

What will we think of this team 4 years from now?
Right now, we have high hopes.

4 years ago, we probably had high hopes too.

What we can't see now, that we will see in the future is possibly some of what i mentioned in the what if category.

I give the same speech every year when trying to temper the predictions for the year.

Almost every year there is the following that people fail to take into consideration...
1. A (potential shock) retirement
2. An ageing star failing to live up to their usual high standards
3. A young kid going backwards with 2nd year blues.
4. A long term injury (or 2.....3...)

...and a couple of other things i can't recall right now.

Apply the same to our current list and it already starts to look a little bleak.

1. Simpson - can we cover him? No.
2. Murphy - Injuries seem to be getting the better of him
3. Weitering, Jack, SPS - doesn't have to be '2nd' year exactly, but you get the point
4. Docherty - Currently, but potentially Murphy....we'll lose someone else soon enough too. Have lost Pickett for half a year so far. There will be more.

EDIT:
5. A recruit not living up to expectations.....

5. Kennedy.

We finished dead last before we embarked on this rebuild and we weren't bullish about the future in the year Malthouse got sacked.  I said four years ago for a reason.  We had sacked Mitch,  Jeff,  Laidler, Waite had walked,  Carrazzo was retiring ellard pulled the pin.

We said back then it would take years not because the club told us, but logic stated it.