Next weekend the Blues play Freo at Etihad with the potential to have a player or two back. More coming back in the next few weeks.
Alas, I will not be attending> I'll be taking my younger daughter for a Dance Eisteddfod at Kyabram. No way I can get down in time. :(
Freo will probably have Sandilands and Fyffe back. Kreuzer often struggled against Sandilands. I'd be playing another ruck, but that doesn't tend to suit our selection criteria.
Next weekend the Blues play Freo at Etihad with the potential to have a player or two back. More coming back in the next few weeks.
Alas, I will not be attending> I'll be taking my younger daughter for a Dance Eisteddfod at Kyabram. No way I can get down in time. :(
Freo will probably have Sandilands and Fyffe back. Kreuzer often struggled against Sandilands. I'd be playing another ruck, but that doesn't tend to suit our selection criteria.
No point as we'll lose nearly every tapout anyway. Pick a runner and rover to the opposition. Many a side's been smashed in the tapouts and won the clearances. Happens on a weekly basis in quite a few games.
No point as we'll lose nearly every tapout anyway. Pick a runner and rover to the opposition. Many a side's been smashed in the tapouts and won the clearances. Happens on a weekly basis in quite a few games.
While I tend to agree, wasn’t winning the ruck one of the five key stats required to win games?
I’d like to see Kreuzer focus on making Sandilands work hard, both in ruck contests and, more importantly, around the ground. Sandilands won’t run with Kreuzer and Kreuzer should exploit that.
While I tend to agree, wasn’t winning the ruck one of the five key stats required to win games?
I’d like to see Kreuzer focus on making Sandilands work hard, both in ruck contests and, more importantly, around the ground. Sandilands won’t run with Kreuzer and Kreuzer should exploit that.
Winning hitouts is as pointless as recruiting Warnock!
Kreuzer is currently ranked 6th in the AFL ruck ratings, despite missing games with injury, and rarely doing better than a break even in the taps to advantage! In the other 80% of ruck work he is excellent! ;)
Dockers have won the hitouts in all but two games this season, against Norp and Collingwood(No Sandilands) they were beaten in hitouts to advantage, but Freo lost 7 games out of 11 games! Even with Fyfe back to nearly career best form!
That is because taps are worthless if your ruck doesn't follow them up with shepherds, tackles, clearances and linked possessions.
When Sandilands taps these days that is almost the end of his participation in the game, he does not recover well, and rarely makes it to the fall of the ball in time to give assistance to his mid-fielders. It's not his tap work that has diminished, it's his 2nd or 3rd efforts that have almost evaporated!
Levi Casboult please take note, although I concede you have been better in 2018. If only you would learn to do something instantly when your feet return to the ground! ;)
While I tend to agree, wasn’t winning the ruck one of the five key stats required to win games?
I’d like to see Kreuzer focus on making Sandilands work hard, both in ruck contests and, more importantly, around the ground. Sandilands won’t run with Kreuzer and Kreuzer should exploit that.
Wouldn't have thought so these days, but winning clearances helps. Many sides win those while getting smashed in the tapouts.
Anyway, I agree with what you say.
Hitouts is a useless stat.
Hitouts to advantage is where its at.
Thing with Sandilands is, he gets more hitouts to advantage than anyone else....and not simply because he gets more hitouts overall. Basically his conversion of a hitout into a hitout to advantage is probably the best going around. (At least it was a couple years ago when figures were published)
Winning hitouts is as pointless as recruiting Warnock!
Kreuzer is currently ranked 6th in the AFL ruck ratings, despite missing games with injury, and rarely doing better than a break even in the taps to advantage! In the other 80% of ruck work he is excellent! ;)
Dockers have won the hitouts in all but two games this season, against Norp and Collingwood(No Sandilands) they were beaten in hitouts to advantage, but Freo lost 7 games out of 11 games! Even with Fyfe back to nearly career best form! That is because taps are worthless if your ruck doesn't follow them up with shepherds, tackles, clearances and linked possessions.
When Sandilands taps these days that is almost the end of his participation in the game, he does not recover well, and rarely makes it to the fall of the ball in time to give assistance to his mid-fielders. It's not his tap work that has diminished, it's his 2nd or 3rd efforts that have almost evaporated!
Levi Casboult please take note, although I concede you have been better in 2018. If only you would learn to do something instantly when your feet return to the ground! ;)
Winning hitouts is one of SIX key stats;
Three other statistics are more important to team success this year compared to last.
Hit-outs (the ruck revolution), shot-at-goal accuracy (amid 50-year lows in scoring) and handball metres gained (the Tiger effect) have all rocketed in statistical influence on victories.
The club with more hit-outs wins 57.3 per cent of the time in 2018 (43.7 per cent in 2017), better shot-at-goal accuracy is 72.6 (up from 60.3), and extra handball metres gained is 57.1 (44.4).
The first three are contested possessions (65.6 per cent success rate), disposal efficiency (69 per cent) and pressure factor (62.2 per cent).
Hitouts is a useless stat.
Hitouts to advantage is where its at.
Thing with Sandilands is, he gets more hitouts to advantage than anyone else....and not simply because he gets more hitouts overall. Basically his conversion of a hitout into a hitout to advantage is probably the best going around. (At least it was a couple years ago when figures were published)
And that is what usually kills us.
And that is what usually kills us.
Not so much, we aren't bad with the clearances. Won them 5 times, lost them 4, twice by one, other two level. Against Essendon we got smashed in the hitouts but comfortably won the clearance count.
To show you how useless the hitout stat is have a look at this.
Team A: 76 hitouts.
Team B: 29 hitouts
Team A: 36 clearances
Team B: 54 clearances
Team A: 4.2.26
Team B: 20.14.134
Team A: Gold Coast
Team B: GWS.
Sounds like a pretty useless ruckmen who can't direct the ball to his team's advantage. ;) :D
Good rucks do not need to win the tap to influence where the ball goes.
A weakness of many players like Sandilands is that they never learned how to influence contests when they are not getting the first hand on the ball!
Sounds like a pretty useless ruckmen who can't direct the ball to his team's advantage. ;) :D
and thats why hitouts to advantage is the only stat that matters.
Hitouts itself is irrelevent.
and thats why hitouts to advantage is the only stat that matters.
Hitouts itself is irrelevent.
I was adding weight to an earlier point you had made ;) ;D
It's true though
It's meaningless who gets their hand on the ball first as a statistic.
We think back to some of the work of great ruckmen of the past and they could virtually put it straight into the hands of their rovers and mids....or to a position where they could run onto it.
But the congestion and tagging of the modern game makes it much harder to direct the ball and then for some advantage to be made of that possession...
If they're going to keep the stat it should at least be dependent on a teammate gaining possession for it to count.
While it may go nowhere after that, it at least demonstrates the skill of the ruckman.
and thats why hitouts to advantage is the only stat that matters.
Hitouts itself is irrelevent.
I'll disagree a little, if you can prevent a dominant ruckman from getting the hitouts and influencing the game like a Sandilands, Grundy or Nic Nat then
a lesser skilled tap ruckman still has a purpose..
I'll disagree a little, if you can prevent a dominant ruckman from getting the hitouts and influencing the game like a Sandilands, Grundy or Nic Nat then
a lesser skilled tap ruckman still has a purpose..
Yep
No doubt there is a place for a 'stopper' ruckman
But that 'íntervention' will show up as a reduced output in the dominant ruckman's hit-out statistics
Yep
No doubt there is a place for a 'stopper' ruckman
But that 'íntervention' will show up as a reduced output in the dominant ruckman's hit-out statistics
As you probably know Lods good ruckmen look at the contest in far more detail than the tap.
For those not detailed in the craft an example. Drive your knee into the opponents left or right side/hip and you turn their body in the air forcing a bias in the direction of their taps even if they are winning them.
Another example, jumping early or late can influence an opponent to tap forward or behind them.
Sam Newman was a first class exponent of moving the averages in favour of his team, which is why he was such a good ruck coach. He took a far more holistic approach than jump higher and get your hands on the ball first.
It's a blight on the game that the modern ruck coaches are not able to implement strategies to deal with these small players taking ruck contests.
Another big issue is the current umpiring and rule implementation. When rucks come up against players like Cotchin they are basically being penalised by umpires for being stronger, taller and heavier. If they dispose of the Cotchin type player from the contest they are penalised, but the Cotchin type player can get up under the armpit of the ruckmen and move him off the line without penalty! It's a ludicrous situation that stoppage coaches are taking advantage of!
I've said this once before, the AFL ruck coaches need to get their head around the rules. I'd be coaching the rucks to nominate then move back 10m to take an aggressive run at the drop zone. The small players and opponents cannot shepherd that run without being penalised, and the large player is free to jump into them aggressively if the small opponent stands under the drop zone. I'm surprised some of the more aggressive rucks haven't worked this out for themselves already! Turn the boundary line throw ins and around the ground ball ups into old style ruck contests without a circle!
I'll disagree a little, if you can prevent a dominant ruckman from getting the hitouts and influencing the game like a Sandilands, Grundy or Nic Nat then
a lesser skilled tap ruckman still has a purpose..
Preventing that dominant ruckman from getting hitouts and influencing games is directly reflected in the 'hitouts to advantage' stats. Which is why i said thats the only thing worth mentioning. Hitouts itself shows how many times a player got his hand on the ball, not how effective that was.
To show you how useless the hitout stat is have a look at this.
Team A: 76 hitouts.
Team B: 29 hitouts
Team A: 36 clearances
Team B: 54 clearances
Team A: 4.2.26
Team B: 20.14.134
Team A: Gold Coast
Team B: GWS.
Agree there.
When GWS played Brisbane, Brisbane won the hitouts 47-4 but were beaten in the clearances. GWS just used 2 of their tall forwards as rucks, one being Patton.
Agree there.
When GWS played Brisbane, Brisbane won the hitouts 47-4 but were beaten in the clearances. GWS just used 2 of their tall forwards as rucks, one being Patton.
Well, Patton's hardly Shaun Grigg! :o
It's not too big of a stretch to imagine Patton slotting comfortably into our 2nd ruck role! ;D
Walters got one week ban so he will miss.
Very dangerous forward and exactly the type we always struggle to contain.
Massive out i reckon.
Well, Patton's hardly Shaun Grigg! :o
It's not too big of a stretch to imagine Patton slotting comfortably into our 2nd ruck role! ;D
What I was saying though was GWS didn't pick a ruck that week, lost the taps 47-4 but won the clearances.
It's a blight on the game that the modern ruck coaches are not able to implement strategies to deal with these small players taking ruck contests...
I've said this once before, the AFL ruck coaches need to get their head around the rules. I'd be coaching the rucks to nominate then move back 10m to take an aggressive run at the drop zone. The small players and opponents cannot shepherd that run without being penalised, and the large player is free to jump into them aggressively if the small opponent stands under the drop zone. I'm surprised some of the more aggressive rucks haven't worked this out for themselves already! Turn the boundary line throw ins and around the ground ball ups into old style ruck contests without a circle!
The problem is, and it's another blight on the game, is that most rucks have absolutely o idea how to time their run and jump in a ruck contest. I think it's embarrassing for them
The problem is, and it's another blight on the game, is that most rucks have absolutely o idea how to time their run and jump in a ruck contest. I think it's embarrassing for them
It might help if the umpires could bounce a ball properly.
Or throw it up so that they can actually get out of the way before the rucks come into the contest.
What I was saying though was GWS didn't pick a ruck that week, lost the taps 47-4 but won the clearances.
@Laj, GWS had Lobb, Patton and Cameron, do they need more?
Lobb broke his ribs in the 1st quarter and didn't play after 1/2-time, they won't ruck Cameron due to his injury history, so they rucked Patton who is horribly out of form and Himmelberg who is undersized against Witts who is in red hot form, could be a good reason for the tap count! ;)
I suppose they could have rucked Davis, they have done it before, but when he's stopping Lynch why change because no Lynch means no GC!
INJURY LIST
Player Injury Duration
Levi Casboult Rib Test
Alex Silvagni Achilles Test
Cillian McDaid Foot Test
Matthew Kennedy Ankle Test
Jarrod Pickett Scaphoid Test
Kym Lebois Collarbone Test
Caleb Marchbank Ankle 1 week
Ciaran Byrne Quad 2 weeks
Harrison Macreadie Hamstring 2 weeks
Marc Murphy Plantar fascia 2-3 weeks
Tom Williamson Back Season
Sam Docherty Knee Season
Updated June 12, 2018
In: Casboult, Graham
Out:O Shea. Cunningham
Emergencies -Mullett, O'Shea, Polson , Phillips
In: Casboult, Graham
Out:O Shea. Cunningham
Emergencies -Mullett, O'Shea, Polson , Phillips
How long have we been calling for that one?
Not a single backman in to replace him?!
Has Bolton lost the plot and started picking a more balanced side for a change?
Does that mean Kennedy and Pickett failed fitness tests?
In: Casboult, Graham
Out:O Shea. Cunningham
Emergencies -Mullett, O'Shea, Polson , Phillips
Happy with that, Cunningham has talent but his past couple of games have been poor, so have O'Shea's but he doesn't have much talent.
Hoping for a big effort by the seniors and for Harry to stake a claim.
Does that mean Kennedy and Pickett failed fitness tests?
Pickett definitely would play 2s first up.....
Happy with that, Cunningham has talent but his past couple of games have been poor, so have O'Shea's but he doesn't have much talent.
Hoping for a big effort by the seniors and for Harry to stake a claim.
Harry's out ill. No claim for Harry this week. Cunningham's injured
How long have we been calling for that one?
Not a single backman in to replace him?!
Has Bolton lost the plot and started picking a more balanced side for a change?
Last time we picked a balanced side, or something close to it, was against Essendon. Maybe we picked balanced sides in games we think we can win. Balance in team selection isn't usually a strong point at Carlton.
Last time we picked a balanced side, or something close to it, was against Essendon. Maybe we picked balanced sides in games we think we can win. Balance in team selection isn't usually a strong point at Carlton.
I think there's an element of truth in that...I've thought it for some time.
Some games are about development, giving kids opportunities...and some are targeted for having a crack at a win.
We're on this week.
Mark my words, we will win five more games this year
Betting odds?
Freo 1.60
Blues 2.35
CARLTON
B: Sam Rowe, Liam Jones, Kade Simpson
HB: Dale Thomas, Jacob Weitering, Lachie Plowman
C: Darcy Lang, Patrick Cripps, Sam Kerridge
HF: Lochie O'Brien, Charlie Curnow, Paddy Dow
F: Matthew Wright, Pat Kerr, Zac Fisher
R: Matthew Kreuzer, Jack Silvagni, Sam Petrevski-Seton
Int: Levi Casboult, Nick Graham, Ed Curnow, Jed Lamb
EMG: Aaron Mullett, Cameron Polson, Andrew Phillips, Cameron O'Shea
IN: Levi Casboult, Nick Graham
OUT: David Cuningham (Injured), Cameron O'Shea (Omitted)
MILESTONES: Matthew Wright - Playing 150th game
FREMANTLE
B: Ryan Nyhuis, Luke Ryan, Tommy Sheridan
HB: Joel Hamling, Nathan Wilson, Stephen Hill
C: Adam Cerra, Lachie Neale, Ed Langdon
HF: Connor Blakely, Brennan Cox, Darcy Tucker
F: Hayden Ballantyne, Shane Kersten, Bailey Banfield
R: Aaron Sandilands, David Mundy, Nat Fyfe
Int: Stefan Giro, Brandon Matera, Andrew Brayshaw, Michael Apeness
EMG Ethan Hughes, Cam McCarthy, Mitchell Crowden, Scott Jones
IN: Stephen Hill, Aaron Sandilands, Nat Fyfe
OUT: Alex Pearce (Injured), Michael Walters (Suspension), Scott Jones (Omitted)
MILESTONES: Nat Fyfe - Playing 150th game
Silvagni, Pickett and Kennedy are named in the Northern Blues team for the weekend. In a few weeks, when they have some form and match fitness under their belts, they will be in line for senior selection.
Harry's out ill. No claim for Harry this week. Cunningham's injured
Bummer about Harry, he struggles to get a good run at it, Cunningham would have been close to being dropped if he wasn't injured.
I like the look of him but he needs to start showing more.
It's a pretty average side, I hope Freo are as ordinary as I think that they are.
I like the look of this side, with Levi or Kerr rotating off the bench a couple of times a quarter to either go hard inside F50 or give Kreuzer a chop out.
In general this team seems a bit better balanced to me!
We're on this week.
Mark my words, we will win five more games this year
???? I'm not particularly religious but I'm praying you're right.
Cunningham has obviously had an injury for 2 weeks yet Andrew McKay didn’t mention it in the injury update this week. Strange???
Cunningham has obviously had an injury for 2 weeks yet Andrew McKay didn’t mention it in the injury update this week. Strange???
Clubs generally don’t mention injuries until it’s definite that the player will miss. I guess it’s more important to keep the opposition in the dark than to do the same with supporters.
Clubs generally don’t mention injuries until it’s definite that the player will miss. I guess it’s more important to keep the opposition in the dark than to do the same with supporters.
Especially if they are injuries they may carry into a game! ;)
We're on this week.
Mark my words, we will win five more games this year
I hope you’re right Thry, I’m making the trip from the Bellarine Peninsula for this one ????
Hey so am I DJC, I'm hoping its warmer up there than it is down here
We are a chance this game, the Freo ins look intimidating but the rest of their team is real average overall IMO and I think we can win.....
Hey so am I DJC, I'm hoping its warmer up there than it is down here
It wouldn’t have to be much warmer!
I'm hoping for a win today, but expect an ugly game. Would be great to kick 12-13 goals though with Kerr, Curnow, Meat and Wright we have some scoring power.
Now we have to get it to them quicker and be more efficient I50 and we'll give ourselves a shot. Silvagni looks pegged for some midfielder minutes as I think he has been named in the guts to start. He'll be working on that tank of his for the rest of the year. Want to see him do well.
Is there any chance of Graham getting a few games in a row to see if he can earn himself another year, or are his papers stamped? Has proven far too good for the VFL, but seems to struggle with either the tempo or confidence in the 1's.
Given our 22-26 age bracket deficiencies they may yet earn another reprieve. Graham was a great junior and Morrish medalist and Kerridge has kicked a bag of goals once. Aberration?
If we can get the supply out of the middle this could be the day we finally kick a decent score, given Freo's threadbare and short defence. But it is getting on top in the midfield where I see our principal difficulties, despite their outs Freo have some quality in the guts.
Cripps v Fyfe - Whoever is BOG wins the game for their mob.
(PS not suggesting they will go head to head)
Do you think if a CheatsFC player was playing injured, like is alleged about Cripps, that The Hun would make it front page news? ;)